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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB
The fall of UKIP in tonight's ICM poll is quite sensational. In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7%
CON the beneficiary
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Comments
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CON MAJ still 4/1. In fact, Paddy Power have just lengthened their price.0
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Betfair update - big shift away from Lab maj,
Lab Maj 2.62-2.8
NOM 2.34-2.48
Most seats
Lab 1.7-1.73
Con 2.44-2.52
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electionista @electionista 5m
Dan Hodges explosion imminent. ;^ )
UK - @conservatives 36%, level with @UKlabour, is the party's highest score in an ICM/Guardian poll since March 2012 http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/15/tories-labour-ukip-guardian-icm-poll …0 -
The pragmatist in me says Outlier and it is just one poll.
Let us see what the Mori poll says
The Tory supporter in me says hahahahaha the two Eds and Labour only level pegging with the incompetent fops and toxic Osborne with the Gold Standard 22 months to go to the election.
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Con 36 Lab 36 LD 13 UKIP 7 produces the following seat distribution:
Lab 321
Con 279
LD 23
SNP 6
PC 3
Grn 0
UKIP 0
NI 18
HUNG PARLIAMENT0 -
Full ICM data http://www.icmresearch.com/guardian-poll-june-130
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Remember, the 4 polls yesterday all showed a very different picture to this. One swallow doesn't make a summer.0
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Broken sleazy UKIP on the slide?
ICM/The Sunil:
Coalition 49%
Labour 36%
OR if you prefer:
Lab/Lib 49%
Tory/UKIP 43%0 -
Jason Cowan
Ahem. ICM/Guardian in July 2008: Con 43 Lab 28 LD 190 -
Another Lib-Lab coalition?tim said:Stuart_Dickson said:Con 36 Lab 36 LD 13 UKIP 7 produces the following seat distribution:
Lab 321
Con 279
LD 23
UKIP 0
SNP 6
PC 3
Grn 0
UKIP 0
NI 18
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Miliband PM.
Cameron removed.
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Not according to all the polls yesterday. With a split in polling it's harder to tell, but the weight of evidence is still in favour of UKIP holding up.Sunil_Prasannan said:Broken sleazy UKIP on the slide?
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So ICM 2008 had the Tories 7% ahead of their 2010 GE share?Plato said:Jason Cowan
Ahem. ICM/Guardian in July 2008: Con 43 Lab 28 LD 190 -
The fall of UKIP in tonight's ICM poll is quite sensational. In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7% CON the beneficiary
Poor old Farage what a shame.
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Surely an outlier.0
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Just imagine how bad it would be if Labour had picked the wrong Miliband.0
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Jason Cowan
Ahem. ICM/Guardian in July 2008: Con 43 Lab 28 LD 19
What's his point? Labour should be further ahead if they want to form a government? Tories still way behind where they need to be to get power on their own?0 -
Whether this is an outlier or not - its all terrifically amusing for mid-term wobbles from Labour. They know as well as we do that ICM has a superb reputation.
And tomorrow its Tories Save The NHS Day ;^ )0 -
Betfair punters voting with their money - Lab maj layoff.0
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When was the last time ICM recorded a change in support of 7%!
Must be at least a 3 point increase for the Tories, given MoE.0 -
Well that is big news. And feels about right to me, even if the swing from the previous poll doesn't quite match up to events.0
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Can anyone confirm that ICM haven't undergone a methodology change?0
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Labour and EdM have failed in opposition as they failed in government. The tide has turned.0
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I can't recall if it was ICM - but there was a sensational poll like this a while ago and we all dismissed it as an outlier - and it held true the following month. It may have been Vetogasm but I think it wasn't that long ago.RobD said:When was the last time ICM recorded a change in support of 7%!
Must be at least a 3 point increase for the Tories, given MoE.0 -
Stuart_Dickson said:
Another Lib-Lab coalition?tim said:Stuart_Dickson said:Con 36 Lab 36 LD 13 UKIP 7 produces the following seat distribution:
Lab 321
Con 279
LD 23
UKIP 0
SNP 6
PC 3
Grn 0
UKIP 0
NI 18
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Miliband PM.
Cameron removed.
With Clegg?? Imagine the hilarity.
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Opposition parties opposing themselves....
Does this mean you suspect that its the union clash thing that may have driven the shift?
(if shift it be?).0 -
Surely got to be a rogue (not sure precisely what the technical definition is in polling terms) but at least an outlier. We ought to wait for confirmation
Still, it's fun to dream...
I wonder what people are saying in Labour HQ right now...
Edit: seems like a rogue is the same as an outlier
http://davidmallard.id.au/2011/01/understanding-polls-margins-of-error/0 -
It's obvious that there are two sets of pollsters in the land and never their twain will meet.0
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I really like the PAC and Select Committee hearings - pick up some really interesting stuff and the level of exasperation from some MPs is brilliant. I wish I'd caught Richard Bacon with his head in his hands...RobD said:Ever since @Plato posted that twitter comment on the previous thread, i've been listening to the public accounts committee talking about taxation of the Duchy. Must say it is quite interesting, in an absolutely nerdy sort of way.
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Labour and EdM have failed in opposition as they failed in government. The tide has turned.
Easy tiger.....0 -
IF it's a shift then it's pretty obvious it can't have helped but the kipper fall can hardly be ignored either. The tories were tearing lumps out of each other over Europe not too long ago but seem to have calmed down now for the most part.taffys said:Opposition parties opposing themselves....
Does this mean you suspect that its the union clash thing that may have driven the shift?
(if shift it be?).
The polling on the likes of little Ed, Balls, Clegg, Osbrowne and Cammie are fairly consistent and it's crystal clear they aren't setting the world on fire with their popularity.
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Interesting poll but out of line with other pollsters and council by elections which recently have been abysmally poor for the Conservatives . It will be interesting to see the full data tables .0
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Well the 2 Eds will be filling their breeks tonight. They can always ask Andy Burnham to administer First Aid to them 0
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Andy Burnham on ITV news dismissing emergency measures tomorrow as a smokescreen. A bit rich from the man who squandered billions driving down the standards of the English NHS. Remember that phrase "the NHS is safe in Labour's hands". Maybe so but we now know several thousand patients were not!0
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During the election that never was in 2007.RobD said:When was the last time ICM recorded a change in support of 7%!
Must be at least a 3 point increase for the Tories, given MoE.
Tories went from 32 to 40 in the ICM guardian series in September to October 2007.
Edit there were other ICM polls during that period, which showed the gradual increase during that period.
Edit 2: For the the 3 major parties excluding UKIP that is.0 -
I've added new chart showing all six polls over past two days0
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Expect the fruitless anti Crosby frothing to increase ten fold....0
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Just got back from a lovely few days in the sun, with the family.
I've been to Legoland and Devon Cliffs and it has been beautiful.
What surprises me is the lack of austerity. Legoland was £465 for a one-night hotel stay and two-day park visit, and it was packed. Awesome too.
Devon Cliffs was heaving with families eating, drinking and having a good time. People do seem to have plenty of money despite the apparent evil of Osborne.0 -
I still can't get over Burnham totally losing his cool on Sky - extraordinarily defensive, he reminded me of Tony Hayward moaning about wanting his life back just after 13 died at DW Horizon.Easterross said:Andy Burnham on ITV news dismissing emergency measures tomorrow as a smokescreen. A bit rich from the man who squandered billions driving down the standards of the English NHS. Remember that phrase "the NHS is safe in Labour's hands". Maybe so but we now know several thousand patients were not!
His best line was bitching about how Tories were making political capital out of it - and then he launched into a brain dump of accusations about Tory mismanagement of the NHS. It was bizarre.0 -
Ashes 2013: Every true Englishman should pray for an Australian victory at Lord's
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100226379/ashes-2013-every-true-englishman-should-pray-for-an-australian-victory-at-lords/
If Hodges wasn't already suffering from heatstroke he will be after this poll. ;^ )
LOL0 -
Interesting things to note (to me anyway)
1) Labour's share of the vote hasn't moved after all the brouhaha over Falkirk and the Unions
2) Is gay marriage ceasing to be an issue, hence the UKIP to Conservative swing
3) Has Lynton Crosby's strategies worked so far? - There was a piece a while back, which saw a two stage tory recovery a) Taking back UKIPers with good messages on Europe and Immigration (Abu Qatada bounce?) and b) the second stage of the recovery is the economy improving - Q2 figures are out in in 9 days time?
Anyone got any ideas what the figure will be? Anthony Wells in the Sunday Times has been tracking for some time the economic optimism is improving a lot recently (more people are less pessimistic)
Is it the economy stupid?0 -
An improving economy will draw voters back to the LDs and Labour can look forward to a long dismal retreat.tim said:Given that the Labour share is barely moving it would seem to add weight to Cameron's view that he has to drive UKIP down to 5% to stand a chance of keeping his job.
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Great sketch on the PAC http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10180174/Sketch-The-prince-who-quacks-like-a-corporation.html
"Madam Chairman said she found the Duchy’s tax affairs “a confused area”; so confused was she that at one point she asked what would happen if the Duchy became king. Nick Smith (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) sought to help by putting things in plain English. “If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck, you sort of assume it’s a duck,” he said. “Given that the Duchy looks like a corporation and quacks like a corporation…”
Personally I have never heard a corporation quack, any more than I have seen a duck float on the stock market. I was starting to feel very unworldly. I felt even more unworldly later when Richard Bacon (Con, South Norfolk) said the Duchy “quacks like a private ducal estate set up to provide an income to the heir to the throne". Oh dear. I’ve never heard a private ducal estate quack either. I must be very out of touch with the upper echelons..."0 -
Alistair from CityAM said SME confidence was now at a 5yrs high a bit earlier this evening...TheScreamingEagles said:
Interesting things to note (to me anyway)
1) Labour's share of the vote hasn't moved after all the brouhaha over Falkirk and the Unions
2) Is gay marriage ceasing to be an issue, hence the UKIP to Conservative swing
3) Has Lynton Crosby's strategies worked so far? - There was a piece a while back, which saw a two stage tory recovery a) Taking back UKIPers with good messages on Europe and Immigration (Abu Qatada bounce?) and b) the second stage of the recovery is the economy improving - Q2 figures are out in in 9 days time?
Anyone got any ideas what the figure will be? Anthony Wells in the Sunday Times has been tracking for some time the economic optimism is improving a lot recently (more people are less pessimistic)
Is it the economy stupid?0 -
Outstanding poll for the Tories, but probably a rogue, UKIP seems very low compared with other pollsters. ICM sometimes produces odd polls, I remember in 1997 one poll had Major within 5 points of Blair, which proved rather optimistic come election day. However the poll does show what has been clear for a while now, the next election will be decided on whether the UKIP vote sticks with Farage or Cameron can win the mainly Tory defectors back!0
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We will have to see what Mori says before getting too excited0
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According to Margaret Hodge property holding companies never pay dividends to their shareholders in order to reduce their tax liabilities. Kinda defeats the object of being a shareholder, does it not?Plato said:0 -
Anyone fancy a box for Jade Goody - The Opera!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2363976/Get-ready-Jade-Goody-opera-Show-chart-reality-TV-stars-rise-fame-death-cervical-cancer.html0 -
Mrs Hodge's own tax affairs re her family business get remarkably little attention in the media - they pay a rounding error near 0% in corp tax IIRC on a turnover of several billion...RobD said:
According to Margaret Hodge property holding companies never pay dividends to their shareholders in order to reduce their tax liabilities. Kinda defeats the object of being a shareholder, does it not?Plato said:0 -
The poll would appear to suggest the tory fightback against UKIP is much more successful than the recent attacks on labour.
We'll just have to see.0 -
Very interesting though probably a rogue poll. Labour figure seems settled around 36 / 37 for now. Though they clearly should be doing better.
One other thing this poll is proving Tim right about Con / UKIP voters.0 -
tim said:
I agree, the Kipper Surgers always forget about FPTP.Jonathan said:
Sounds very doable at the GE.tim said:Given that the Labour share is barely moving it would seem to add weight to Cameron's view that he has to drive UKIP down to 5% to stand a chance of keeping his job.
The question is really whether the 100 UKIP sympathisers on the Tory benches can avoid going batshit crazy next June.
It all depends if they can rally round the 'only Cammie will give you a referendum' message.
The EU elections strategy will be pretty much like this but substituting that referendum for an IN/OUT one. Gullible tory eurosceptics have fallen for it before so he could pull it off.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ2n7oMcSi0
Of course if Crosby and Osbrowne return to the master strategy of banging on about Europe and immigration like they did for the local elections and Eastleigh then they can forget it.
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When the Tories win the popular vote in 2015, don't forget who predicted it first....0
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Though it seems unlikely to be accurate being so out of line with all other polls and indicators I'd be delighted to see UKIP wiped out.
Their very presence is an affront and the idea that the vulgarian Farage has any support is perhaps the most depressing feature of the political scene at the moment.
http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/117515/Nigel_Farage_insults_Herman_van_Rompuy_calls_EU_President_a_DAMP_RAG__EurActivcom/0 -
'Con 36 Lab 36 LD 13 UKIP 7
Red's mass membership surge?0 -
For my money - even if this is an outlier - what is Labour doing to even be in this position with 2yrs to go? Neck and neck with ICM?
The drop off in Kipper support appears to be a trend here - its a great shame that the Times doesn't do Populus phone polling now as a comparison. MORI IIRC only sample certain-to-vote so its not quite the same type of methodology even though its a phone poll.0 -
I don't know if ICM have changed methodology at all but for one reason or another there is better retention of 2010 voters for all the top 3 parties, although it does look like a switch back from Ukip.
On the unadjusted figures Con 2010 retention is up from 49% to 63%; Labour 64% to 73%; LD 22% to 35% (June wasn't too different from May in this regard).0 -
Polling versus Newssense™ anecdote
The row with Unite will be good for Ed...A poll by YouGov yesterday, taken after Ed Miliband’s high-profile change in link with the unions, found that 37% of people now think Miliband is too close to the unions, up from 29% last week.
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2013/07/15/polls-show-labours-unite-row-worked-against-it/
In other words most Britons didn’t pay close attention to the exact nature of Labour’s row with Unite, nor the change in link.
If anything, continuing the row seems to have worked against Labour.0 -
What is Labour doing to even be in this position with 2yrs to go? Neck and neck with ICM?
The real worry for labour is the economy. ITEM today are forecasting 2.2% growth in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015.
Given what has occurred since 2008, that will feel seriously fast - IF it occurs of course0 -
Things looking dire in Spain:
Spain PM took cash payments, court told: sources
An ex-treasurer of Spain's ruling party told a court on Monday he had handed secret cash payments to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy from a slush fund, judicial sources said.
The former treasurer of Rajoy's Popular Party, Luis Barcenas, said he handed 25,000 euros ($33,000) in 500-euro notes to the prime minister in March 2010, said sources present in the hearing, who asked not to be named.
http://www.expatica.com/es/news/spanish-news/spain-pm-took-cash-payments-court-told-sources_269700.html0 -
OT I've been looking at the weather tonight and its going to be 88% humidity at 0100 and 18C - urgh.
I may as well lie in the bath as in bed at this rate.0 -
I think you'll find, as in this, that tim is as wrong as can possibly be on all range of subjects.YossariansChild said:Very interesting though probably a rogue poll. Labour figure seems settled around 36 / 37 for now. Though they clearly should be doing better.
One other thing this poll is proving Tim right about Con / UKIP voters.
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It'll be interesting to see what the IPSOS/Mori political monitor (hopefully due tomorrow) chucks out when put through the Lebo & Norpoth model.
Last month it predicted a 4.7% Tory vote lead and a 16 Tory seat lead in 2015...
(FWIW, it has forecast a Tory vote lead almost without exception since 2010)0 -
Labour councillor lost selection ballot, despite being only candidate
http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/news/news-opinion/neil-elkes-labour-face-little-50684440 -
In the immortal words of Aristotle:
One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day; similarly one day or brief time of happiness does not make a person entirely happy.
An interesting poll, but no reason to get excited unless it becomes a trend.0 -
New Moderate Tory group launched "Members of the Forty Group are frustrated by what they see as the self-indulgent behaviour of some Tory MPs representing safe seats, whom they accuse of pursuing campaigns which repel voters in the centre ground. ... The Forty Group will counterattack on Monday by publishing a moderate manifesto setting out 40 policy ideas that address a range of social and business issues, but which barely mentions the EU – a central party flashpoint."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1dec65a8-ea4b-11e2-b2f4-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1dec65a8-ea4b-11e2-b2f40 -
Making Dan Hodges happy. ;^ )taffys said:What is Labour doing to even be in this position with 2yrs to go? Neck and neck with ICM?
Today, Ed Miliband showed that he doesn't want to be Labour leader. He wants to be prime minister
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100225653/today-ed-miliband-showed-that-he-doesnt-want-to-be-labour-leader-he-wants-to-be-prime-minister/
It's a worry for them because Balls and Osbrowne are just about as toxic as each other as the polling fairly consistently shows.taffys said:The real worry for labour is the economy. ITEM today are forecasting 2.2% growth in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015.
Given what has occurred since 2008, that will feel seriously fast - IF it occurs of course
IF there's more polling like this and IF labour start panicking then they might just start to look at Balls as a bit of a dead weight. That the tories could also take the initiative and get rid of their liability doesn't enter into it because Osbrowne is Cammie's chum.
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While, of course, it was entirely right for the Labour government to introduce tax concessions for UK property companies (REITS) in 2006RobD said:
According to Margaret Hodge property holding companies never pay dividends to their shareholders in order to reduce their tax liabilities. Kinda defeats the object of being a shareholder, does it not?Plato said:
(nb: the Duchy wouldn't qualify because it isn't a company)0 -
BrilliantHYUFD said:Labour councillor lost selection ballot, despite being only candidate
http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/news/news-opinion/neil-elkes-labour-face-little-5068444
"It seemed a shoe-in for Coun Evans, as the only candidate and one seemingly well-liked and respected by colleagues.
But the grass roots activists had other ideas and voted, I am reliably informed, by seven votes to four, against his selection. One of the four was his fellow councillor Majid Mahmood.
It’s not the worst result in local Labour selections.
One member told that a contestant in another part of the West Midlands got a single vote despite having four family members in the selection meeting.
The West Midlands Labour Party has told me that the selection will now be opened up for new applications and re-run. They said Coun Evans can apply along with anyone else on the approved list of council candidates..."0 -
It's a commodity trading company - turnover the wrong figure to look at. I don't know how Stemcor (?) does but wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3% margins on several billion of turnover (i.e. profits in the tens of millions)Plato said:
Mrs Hodge's own tax affairs re her family business get remarkably little attention in the media - they pay a rounding error near 0% in corp tax IIRC on a turnover of several billion...RobD said:
According to Margaret Hodge property holding companies never pay dividends to their shareholders in order to reduce their tax liabilities. Kinda defeats the object of being a shareholder, does it not?Plato said:0 -
Remember to switch off the central heating.Plato said:
OT I've been looking at the weather tonight and its going to be 88% humidity at 0100 and 18C - urgh.
I may as well lie in the bath as in bed at this rate.0 -
Changes since the ICM December 2012 poll.
Tories +4
Labour -4
LD nc
UKIP nc0 -
Depends on the starting point - some of Tim's recent comments (although more Surbiton and IOS, IIRC) weren't accurate.YossariansChild said:Very interesting though probably a rogue poll. Labour figure seems settled around 36 / 37 for now. Though they clearly should be doing better.
One other thing this poll is proving Tim right about Con / UKIP voters.
As a rule of thumb I use:
- first 5% of UKIP support are core Kippers
- next 10-12% disproportionately hurt the Tories (say 80/20)
- next 5% much closer to 50/50 between the bigger parties
So ultimately it depends where UKIP support is to determine where the incremental damage is being done0 -
It's a worry for them because Balls and Osbrowne are just about as toxic as each other as the polling fairly consistently shows.
Indeed. As you say there are some mighty big ifs here, but were labour to go through some sort of dip, then Ed B might be vulnerable. Ed M is certainly ruthless enough.
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I always sleep in the nude, it's far more comfortable!Plato said:OT I've been looking at the weather tonight and its going to be 88% humidity at 0100 and 18C - urgh.
I may as well lie in the bath as in bed at this rate.0 -
yes it was me and you all laughed as you did when I predicted the LibDems would likely win around 50 seats in 2010 when you were all going crazy predicting 80-100+ at the height of Cleggism.RodCrosby said:When the Tories win the popular vote in 2015, don't forget who predicted it first....
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Cleggasm!Easterross said:
yes it was me and you all laughed as you did when I predicted the LibDems would likely win around 50 seats in 2010 when you were all going crazy predicting 80-100+ at the height of Cleggism.RodCrosby said:When the Tories win the popular vote in 2015, don't forget who predicted it first....
LibDems reneging on Student Fees would be a "Cleggism" 0 -
Are you enjoying Wee Eck's sudden conversion to "Separation-lite", or Status-Quo-Max as he prefers to call it?Easterross said:0 -
A rogue poll is one you don't like...
A Labour source last night said the poll "feels outside the margin".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/rowena-mason/10181134/Tories-draw-neck-and-neck-with-Labour-for-first-time-in-a-year.html
"Polls come and go but it's fair to point out in the last few days we have seen leads of 11, 7, 11, 8 and 8 points," the source added.0 -
I've recently noticed Salmond's Rule of Fives ;Scott_P said:
Are you enjoying Wee Eck's sudden conversion to "Separation-lite", or Status-Quo-Max as he prefers to call it?Easterross said:
Five Unions
Five Pensions
Five Bellies
Five-course Suppers
Five hundred thousand pound expenses paid blow-out at the Ryder Cup0 -
Scott_P said:
Are you enjoying Wee Eck's sudden conversion to "Separation-lite", or Status-Quo-Max as he prefers to call it?Easterross said:
This is a good poll for the tories Scotty_P but perhaps you should calm down and stop babbling incoherently. Or is this a prelude to you predicting yet another another scottish tory surge?
How big is it going to be this time?
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Plato - Indeed, also seems the Milibands' are not the only Labour family split by politics!0
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According to HMG the IndyRef is already done and dusted, and 'No' won!
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/coalition-claims-it-has-won-battle-for-no-vote-in-referendum.21607716
Will Paddy Power pay out to lucky 'No' backers already?
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In light of this poll, just remember this poll from last October.
The Panelbase poll of nearly 1,000 Scots for The Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland found that support for independence stands at 37%, while 45% are opposed and 17% are undecided.
But when asked how they would vote in the 2014 referendum if they believed the following year’s UK general election would lead to a Tory-led government or another Tory-Lib Dem coalition, support for independence surges.
The poll found that 52% would be likely to vote Yes under that scenario while 40% said they would be likely to vote No and 8% are unsure.0 -
Stuart Dickson - Concerning, indeed Rajoy seems even weaker than Hollande at the moment especially with these new allegations. Rajoy only became PM after losing 2 consecutive previous elections, is that a record? Aznar, who in my view was the best Spanish PM since post-Franco democracy, has even hinted, like Sarko, he may run again at the next election!0
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But two swallows does make a girlfriend.Quincel said:Remember, the 4 polls yesterday all showed a very different picture to this. One swallow doesn't make a summer.
Sorry, I'll get my coat.
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Salmond is campaigning on the centre ground. Darling is focussing on getting the core vote out.Scott_P said:
Are you enjoying Wee Eck's sudden conversion to "Separation-lite", or Status-Quo-Max as he prefers to call it?Easterross said:
I wonder where we've seen that pattern before?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1997
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Golly! Well I never. Last October was the first anyone ever realised that. ;^ )TheScreamingEagles said:In light of this poll, just remember this poll from last October.
*chortle*0 -
Differences between ICM and Populus online
Labour -2
Tories +5
LD no difference
UKIP -30 -
One may only wonder how far Ed will take Labour down by May 2015 ....
Tick tock .... tick tock0 -
NOM is just about to overtake LAB MAJ as FAV.
Best prices - next UK GE - overall majority
Hung parliament 13/8 (Lad)
Lab majority 13/8 (Betfair)
Con majority 4/1 (various)0 -
Governments lose elections. Oppositions don't win them.JackW said:One may only wonder how far Ed will take Labour down by May 2015 ....
Tick tock .... tick tock0
This discussion has been closed.