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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sensational ICM poll has the Tories drawing level with LAB
The fall of UKIP in tonight's ICM poll is quite sensational. In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7%
CON the beneficiary
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Lab Maj 2.62-2.8
NOM 2.34-2.48
Most seats
Lab 1.7-1.73
Con 2.44-2.52
Let us see what the Mori poll says
The Tory supporter in me says hahahahaha the two Eds and Labour only level pegging with the incompetent fops and toxic Osborne with the Gold Standard 22 months to go to the election.
Lab 321
Con 279
LD 23
SNP 6
PC 3
Grn 0
UKIP 0
NI 18
HUNG PARLIAMENT
ICM/The Sunil:
Coalition 49%
Labour 36%
OR if you prefer:
Lab/Lib 49%
Tory/UKIP 43%
Ahem. ICM/Guardian in July 2008: Con 43 Lab 28 LD 19
Ahem. ICM/Guardian in July 2008: Con 43 Lab 28 LD 19
What's his point? Labour should be further ahead if they want to form a government? Tories still way behind where they need to be to get power on their own?
And tomorrow its Tories Save The NHS Day ;^ )
Must be at least a 3 point increase for the Tories, given MoE.
With Clegg?? Imagine the hilarity.
Does this mean you suspect that its the union clash thing that may have driven the shift?
(if shift it be?).
Still, it's fun to dream...
I wonder what people are saying in Labour HQ right now...
Edit: seems like a rogue is the same as an outlier
http://davidmallard.id.au/2011/01/understanding-polls-margins-of-error/
Easy tiger.....
The polling on the likes of little Ed, Balls, Clegg, Osbrowne and Cammie are fairly consistent and it's crystal clear they aren't setting the world on fire with their popularity.
Tories went from 32 to 40 in the ICM guardian series in September to October 2007.
Edit there were other ICM polls during that period, which showed the gradual increase during that period.
Edit 2: For the the 3 major parties excluding UKIP that is.
I've been to Legoland and Devon Cliffs and it has been beautiful.
What surprises me is the lack of austerity. Legoland was £465 for a one-night hotel stay and two-day park visit, and it was packed. Awesome too.
Devon Cliffs was heaving with families eating, drinking and having a good time. People do seem to have plenty of money despite the apparent evil of Osborne.
His best line was bitching about how Tories were making political capital out of it - and then he launched into a brain dump of accusations about Tory mismanagement of the NHS. It was bizarre.
If Hodges wasn't already suffering from heatstroke he will be after this poll. ;^ )
LOL
1) Labour's share of the vote hasn't moved after all the brouhaha over Falkirk and the Unions
2) Is gay marriage ceasing to be an issue, hence the UKIP to Conservative swing
3) Has Lynton Crosby's strategies worked so far? - There was a piece a while back, which saw a two stage tory recovery a) Taking back UKIPers with good messages on Europe and Immigration (Abu Qatada bounce?) and b) the second stage of the recovery is the economy improving - Q2 figures are out in in 9 days time?
Anyone got any ideas what the figure will be? Anthony Wells in the Sunday Times has been tracking for some time the economic optimism is improving a lot recently (more people are less pessimistic)
Is it the economy stupid?
"Madam Chairman said she found the Duchy’s tax affairs “a confused area”; so confused was she that at one point she asked what would happen if the Duchy became king. Nick Smith (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) sought to help by putting things in plain English. “If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck, you sort of assume it’s a duck,” he said. “Given that the Duchy looks like a corporation and quacks like a corporation…”
Personally I have never heard a corporation quack, any more than I have seen a duck float on the stock market. I was starting to feel very unworldly. I felt even more unworldly later when Richard Bacon (Con, South Norfolk) said the Duchy “quacks like a private ducal estate set up to provide an income to the heir to the throne". Oh dear. I’ve never heard a private ducal estate quack either. I must be very out of touch with the upper echelons..."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2363976/Get-ready-Jade-Goody-opera-Show-chart-reality-TV-stars-rise-fame-death-cervical-cancer.html
We'll just have to see.
One other thing this poll is proving Tim right about Con / UKIP voters.
It all depends if they can rally round the 'only Cammie will give you a referendum' message.
The EU elections strategy will be pretty much like this but substituting that referendum for an IN/OUT one. Gullible tory eurosceptics have fallen for it before so he could pull it off.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ2n7oMcSi0
Of course if Crosby and Osbrowne return to the master strategy of banging on about Europe and immigration like they did for the local elections and Eastleigh then they can forget it.
Their very presence is an affront and the idea that the vulgarian Farage has any support is perhaps the most depressing feature of the political scene at the moment.
http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/117515/Nigel_Farage_insults_Herman_van_Rompuy_calls_EU_President_a_DAMP_RAG__EurActivcom/
Red's mass membership surge?
The drop off in Kipper support appears to be a trend here - its a great shame that the Times doesn't do Populus phone polling now as a comparison. MORI IIRC only sample certain-to-vote so its not quite the same type of methodology even though its a phone poll.
On the unadjusted figures Con 2010 retention is up from 49% to 63%; Labour 64% to 73%; LD 22% to 35% (June wasn't too different from May in this regard).
The row with Unite will be good for Ed... http://liberalconspiracy.org/2013/07/15/polls-show-labours-unite-row-worked-against-it/
The real worry for labour is the economy. ITEM today are forecasting 2.2% growth in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015.
Given what has occurred since 2008, that will feel seriously fast - IF it occurs of course
Spain PM took cash payments, court told: sources
An ex-treasurer of Spain's ruling party told a court on Monday he had handed secret cash payments to Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy from a slush fund, judicial sources said.
The former treasurer of Rajoy's Popular Party, Luis Barcenas, said he handed 25,000 euros ($33,000) in 500-euro notes to the prime minister in March 2010, said sources present in the hearing, who asked not to be named.
http://www.expatica.com/es/news/spanish-news/spain-pm-took-cash-payments-court-told-sources_269700.html
I may as well lie in the bath as in bed at this rate.
Last month it predicted a 4.7% Tory vote lead and a 16 Tory seat lead in 2015...
(FWIW, it has forecast a Tory vote lead almost without exception since 2010)
http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/news/news-opinion/neil-elkes-labour-face-little-5068444
One swallow does not a summer make, nor one fine day; similarly one day or brief time of happiness does not make a person entirely happy.
An interesting poll, but no reason to get excited unless it becomes a trend.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1dec65a8-ea4b-11e2-b2f4-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1dec65a8-ea4b-11e2-b2f4
It's a worry for them because Balls and Osbrowne are just about as toxic as each other as the polling fairly consistently shows.
IF there's more polling like this and IF labour start panicking then they might just start to look at Balls as a bit of a dead weight. That the tories could also take the initiative and get rid of their liability doesn't enter into it because Osbrowne is Cammie's chum.
(nb: the Duchy wouldn't qualify because it isn't a company)
"It seemed a shoe-in for Coun Evans, as the only candidate and one seemingly well-liked and respected by colleagues.
But the grass roots activists had other ideas and voted, I am reliably informed, by seven votes to four, against his selection. One of the four was his fellow councillor Majid Mahmood.
It’s not the worst result in local Labour selections.
One member told that a contestant in another part of the West Midlands got a single vote despite having four family members in the selection meeting.
The West Midlands Labour Party has told me that the selection will now be opened up for new applications and re-run. They said Coun Evans can apply along with anyone else on the approved list of council candidates..."
Oh, wait...
Tories +4
Labour -4
LD nc
UKIP nc
As a rule of thumb I use:
- first 5% of UKIP support are core Kippers
- next 10-12% disproportionately hurt the Tories (say 80/20)
- next 5% much closer to 50/50 between the bigger parties
So ultimately it depends where UKIP support is to determine where the incremental damage is being done
Indeed. As you say there are some mighty big ifs here, but were labour to go through some sort of dip, then Ed B might be vulnerable. Ed M is certainly ruthless enough.
LibDems reneging on Student Fees would be a "Cleggism"
Five Unions
Five Pensions
Five Bellies
Five-course Suppers
Five hundred thousand pound expenses paid blow-out at the Ryder Cup
This is a good poll for the tories Scotty_P but perhaps you should calm down and stop babbling incoherently. Or is this a prelude to you predicting yet another another scottish tory surge?
How big is it going to be this time?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/coalition-claims-it-has-won-battle-for-no-vote-in-referendum.21607716
Will Paddy Power pay out to lucky 'No' backers already?
The Panelbase poll of nearly 1,000 Scots for The Sunday Times and Real Radio Scotland found that support for independence stands at 37%, while 45% are opposed and 17% are undecided.
But when asked how they would vote in the 2014 referendum if they believed the following year’s UK general election would lead to a Tory-led government or another Tory-Lib Dem coalition, support for independence surges.
The poll found that 52% would be likely to vote Yes under that scenario while 40% said they would be likely to vote No and 8% are unsure.
Sorry, I'll get my coat.
I wonder where we've seen that pattern before?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1997
*chortle*
Labour -2
Tories +5
LD no difference
UKIP -3
'I think you'll find that Tories talking up immigration and Europe helps Farage'
I think you'll find that Red being out of step with 70% of voters on the benefits cap that's helping Dave.
Tick tock .... tick tock
Best prices - next UK GE - overall majority
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