Stuart Dickson - Concerning, indeed Rajoy seems even weaker than Hollande at the moment especially with these new allegations. Rajoy only became PM after losing 2 consecutive previous elections, is that a record? Aznar, who in my view was the best Spanish PM since post-Franco democracy, has even hinted, like Sarko, he may run again at the next election!
For those with Sky Sports, turn over to what was Sky Sports 2, Dave is at the Oval, and he's about to be interviewed and he's been doing some bowling in the indoor school
"The Conservative backbencher has been criticised by Todd Foreman, Labour’s parliamentary candidate for his North East Somerset seat, who says Mr Rees-Mogg should quit his city job and put his constituents first.
Mr Foreman, who has pledged not to take outside paid employment if he is elected, said Mr Rees-Mogg’s £133,543-a-year role as a partner at investment manager Somerset Capital Management was a distraction. He said: “Being an MP is an enormous privilege and should be a full-time job. MPs are paid an annual salary of £66,396, which is over three times more than the median gross annual earnings in North East Somerset of £21,060. An MP's salary is more than enough for anyone to live on and there is no need for MPs to take outside employment to make ends meet.”
He added: “How can Jacob Rees-Mogg be doing his job as MP properly and also doing enough outside work to justify such earnings? How can serving the residents of North East Somerset be Mr Rees-Mogg's top priority if he is earning twice as much in another job? Jacob Rees-Mogg should put his constituents first and spend the remainder of his term working full-time for the residents of North East Somerset.”
But Mr Rees-Mogg has hit back at “career politicians.” He said: “Unfortunately, those who are professional politicians always need to climb the greasy pole because it is their only chance to boost their earnings. The politician with outside interests is much freer. Outside interests are beneficial to MPs and their constituents. Outside interests keep Members of Parliament up to date on the realities of business and employment life and allow them to see how government policies work in practice.”
Plato - While clearly a nice earner for Mr Rees-Mogg, I agree with him that it keeps him touch with the business world, and ultimately it is up to his constituents to decide whether it affects him doing his job at the next election!
Given the Parliamentary cycle is always for support to move TOWARDS the government as the election nears and given the recovering economy, what exactly is going to happen for Labour to reverse this trend?
Of course, polls will fluctuate, but overall I can't see Labour's position doing anything other than dropping from here.
Perhaps someone could list for me the Scottish Labour Westminster seats that they think are in jeopardy.
The Scots might not like Ed Miliband as much as Gordon Brown, but they will probably dislike David Cameron more in 2015 than in 2010. That should be enough for Labour's purposes. If as seems most likely the independence referendum has been defeated in 2014, the SNP will be a sideshow for Westminster.
It is not "someone" who has just predicted 13 SNP seats at the next UK GE. It is one particular person, ie. JackW, so you really have to ask him.
I already have asked him which 13 seats he means, and he noticeably failed to answer my question.
Either JackW is assuming a total, complete and utter SLD rout (eg. SNP winning Edinburgh West from 4th place!!), or else he is assuming that the SLAB vote is going to plummet below 34%, from 42% in 2010.
Or, a 3rd possibility is that JackW just makes up some daft numbers in his heid and hasn't really thought things through.
fitalass - Indeed, although both would also have to overcome PMs or ex-PMs in their own party first, Fillon and Rajoy, before they even get to face the Socialists. But would be fascinating!
Perhaps someone could list for me the Scottish Labour Westminster seats that they think are in jeopardy.
The Scots might not like Ed Miliband as much as Gordon Brown, but they will probably dislike David Cameron more in 2015 than in 2010. That should be enough for Labour's purposes. If as seems most likely the independence referendum has been defeated in 2014, the SNP will be a sideshow for Westminster.
It is not "someone" who has just predicted 13 SNP seats at the next UK GE. It is one particular person, ie. JackW, so you really have to ask him.
I already have asked him which 13 seats he means, and he noticeably failed to answer my question.
Either JackW is assuming a total, complete and utter SLD rout (eg. SNP winning Edinburgh West from 4th place!!), or else he is assuming that the SLAB vote is going to plummet below 34%, from 42% in 2010.
Or, a 3rd possibility is that JackW just makes up some daft numbers in his heid and hasn't really thought things through.
How do you see Danny Alexander's seat going?
If you want to vote tactically against Danny, who do you vote for, because Lab and the SNP are fairly close in share of the vote in the seat.
Judging by the Holyrood polling, the SNP have the big mo in Scottish politics?
I wonder if we could see a 92 result of Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber, with 3 parties within 1.3% of each other?
True, but oppositions sure can make it far easier for Governments to win if they aren't up to scratch.
The hysteria from some PB tories does make it easier and tempting to ignore this one poll but it's still ICM and there have been other polls that were hinting at a tory recovery, however slight or gradual it may be.
Osbrowne lost the tories their competence ticket with his omnishambles budget and they've been struggling ever since with Farage constantly nipping at their heels. It's possible they might be getting some of those lost voters back now and Farage may not have any real staying power in the end. FPTP will hammer the kippers regardless in 2015.
It's making things interesting at least and shifting the betting markets a touch as well. It could easily be one rogue poll and things are likely to be more febrile at this time in the summer political cycle. We'll have to wait and see.
I may not post 50 times a day like some here so won't get noticed much and most won't care but I've been saying all along that UKIP is mid-term protesting and simply not going to have a major impact at the next election. If UKIP poll >10% at the General Election I'll eat my hat. I suspect this 7% is more likely too high than too low.
The polling companies who have changed their methodology to improve UKIP's share, despite that never having been reflected in an actual general election will have egg on their face. Well and truly putting the cart before the horse.
It's the timing of it that's so perfect. Cameron is briefing his troops now re the Keogh Report into the NHS failures, Burnham has been flapping wildly on the telly and is clearly under a great deal of pressure - and now a poll = ICM no less has Labour's lead zapped to ZERO.
Whether its an outlier or not really doesn't matter - its the psychological impact on jangling nerves in the Labour ranks and tails-up on the Tory benches.
Perhaps someone could list for me the Scottish Labour Westminster seats that they think are in jeopardy.
The Scots might not like Ed Miliband as much as Gordon Brown, but they will probably dislike David Cameron more in 2015 than in 2010. That should be enough for Labour's purposes. If as seems most likely the independence referendum has been defeated in 2014, the SNP will be a sideshow for Westminster.
It is not "someone" who has just predicted 13 SNP seats at the next UK GE. It is one particular person, ie. JackW, so you really have to ask him.
I already have asked him which 13 seats he means, and he noticeably failed to answer my question.
Either JackW is assuming a total, complete and utter SLD rout (eg. SNP winning Edinburgh West from 4th place!!), or else he is assuming that the SLAB vote is going to plummet below 34%, from 42% in 2010.
Or, a 3rd possibility is that JackW just makes up some daft numbers in his heid and hasn't really thought things through.
Or, a 4th possibility is that JackW just is bored stiff with your comedic interjections of this morning and tonight and would rather you just stop embarrassing yourself along with "tim".
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole Given Cabinet moved to Thursday and tomorrow is going to be Keoghtastic, it looks increasingly like reshuffle starts leaking late tomo/Wed.
Terrible poll for UKIP. Alas, they were relying too much on Bulgarians, Farage's pub habits and uptight homophobia to get them into the mainstream, all the while failing to notice that Lynton was cooking some chunky slabs of red meat. Meanwhile, with Ed flirting with crude rightist populism and alienating his Lib Dem defectors the Tories might just have it sealed.
I'm not sure I'm going to be able to cope with four more test matches like that.
Nine with the back to back series. My blood pressure will be through the roof by the end. Impossible to have scripted such an incredible curtain-raiser for the summer.
Good to see Lucian posting about betting opportunities over on his blog too.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole Given Cabinet moved to Thursday and tomorrow is going to be Keoghtastic, it looks increasingly like reshuffle starts leaking late tomo/Wed.
Miss Plato, stroking your white cat from your throne in the bunker who is for the knife toe cap treatment ?
Perhaps someone could list for me the Scottish Labour Westminster seats that they think are in jeopardy.
The Scots might not like Ed Miliband as much as Gordon Brown, but they will probably dislike David Cameron more in 2015 than in 2010. That should be enough for Labour's purposes. If as seems most likely the independence referendum has been defeated in 2014, the SNP will be a sideshow for Westminster.
It is not "someone" who has just predicted 13 SNP seats at the next UK GE. It is one particular person, ie. JackW, so you really have to ask him.
I already have asked him which 13 seats he means, and he noticeably failed to answer my question.
Either JackW is assuming a total, complete and utter SLD rout (eg. SNP winning Edinburgh West from 4th place!!), or else he is assuming that the SLAB vote is going to plummet below 34%, from 42% in 2010.
Or, a 3rd possibility is that JackW just makes up some daft numbers in his heid and hasn't really thought things through.
Or, a 4th possibility is that JackW just is bored stiff with your comedic interjections of this morning and tonight and would rather you just stop embarrassing yourself along with "tim".
Thus far today you have failed to provide us with your ARSE projections from summer 2008, ie. at the same point in the electoral cycle; and you have failed to tell us which 13 seats you think the SNP are going to win (which had everybody mystified, not just me).
You can fool some of the people some of the time. Unless you are JackW, who can't fool anybody.
The gold standard is all over the oche, if it were a new pollster people would be saying they were clueless
Maybe they're going for the scattergun approach? If ukip do well, badly or indifferently they can say they were right in one poll
Anyway, global warmists & the EDL, peas in a pod...
Andrew Neil (@afneil) 15/07/2013 20:21 Sunday Politics interview on global warming results in twitter line being infested by almost as many unpleasant obsessives as EDL interview
Probably an outlier but something to keep everyone happy.
Not too sure the kippers are dancing in the streets with this ICM.
Does Ed agree with Unite?
a secret Unite report has branded Nigel Farage's party "pre-fascist".
The report warns that while the party could not currently be called fascist, its "xenophobic" policies are potentially dangerous.
"The Ukip vote represents a dangerous, populist right-wing vote which is swayed by anti-immigrant and anti-European rhetoric – and nostalgia for a comfortable world that never really existed," the document, which was seen by the Mail on Sunday, found.
"These are all the hallmarks of pre-fascist movements – which is not to say that Ukip is fascist, because it isn't, but to point to the dangers of ignoring them and the issues or attempting to chase them.
Perhaps someone could list for me the Scottish Labour Westminster seats that they think are in jeopardy.
The Scots might not like Ed Miliband as much as Gordon Brown, but they will probably dislike David Cameron more in 2015 than in 2010. That should be enough for Labour's purposes. If as seems most likely the independence referendum has been defeated in 2014, the SNP will be a sideshow for Westminster.
It is not "someone" who has just predicted 13 SNP seats at the next UK GE. It is one particular person, ie. JackW, so you really have to ask him.
I already have asked him which 13 seats he means, and he noticeably failed to answer my question.
Either JackW is assuming a total, complete and utter SLD rout (eg. SNP winning Edinburgh West from 4th place!!), or else he is assuming that the SLAB vote is going to plummet below 34%, from 42% in 2010.
Or, a 3rd possibility is that JackW just makes up some daft numbers in his heid and hasn't really thought things through.
Or, a 4th possibility is that JackW just is bored stiff with your comedic interjections of this morning and tonight and would rather you just stop embarrassing yourself along with "tim".
All jokes aside, if ICM are any good, and given that Lab should really have a decent led t this stàge, isn't the 4/1 about a Tory outright win worth a small bet? Even if only for trading out purposes (will they reall drift much bigger pre 2015.)
Perhaps someone could list for me the Scottish Labour Westminster seats that they think are in jeopardy.
The Scots might not like Ed Miliband as much as Gordon Brown, but they will probably dislike David Cameron more in 2015 than in 2010. That should be enough for Labour's purposes. If as seems most likely the independence referendum has been defeated in 2014, the SNP will be a sideshow for Westminster.
It is not "someone" who has just predicted 13 SNP seats at the next UK GE. It is one particular person, ie. JackW, so you really have to ask him.
I already have asked him which 13 seats he means, and he noticeably failed to answer my question.
Either JackW is assuming a total, complete and utter SLD rout (eg. SNP winning Edinburgh West from 4th place!!), or else he is assuming that the SLAB vote is going to plummet below 34%, from 42% in 2010.
Or, a 3rd possibility is that JackW just makes up some daft numbers in his heid and hasn't really thought things through.
Or, a 4th possibility is that JackW just is bored stiff with your comedic interjections of this morning and tonight and would rather you just stop embarrassing yourself along with "tim".
Thus far today you have failed to provide us with your ARSE projections from summer 2008, ie. at the same point in the electoral cycle; and you have failed to tell us which 13 seats you think the SNP are going to win (which had everybody mystified, not just me).
You can fool some of the people some of the time. Unless you are JackW, who can't fool anybody.
Wrong again Stuart.
As anyone who read the thread this morning will see you specifically asked me NOT for the Summer 2008 ARSE projections for 2010 but the July 2008 one and I advised you plainly there wasn't one.
You also asked me for a recent record of the ARSE and I gave you chapter and verse on the last national outing being the 2012 Presidential Election.
You say "everbody" is "mystified" by the SNP projection of 13 seats. Well hardly unless "everybody" is actually just you.
It's true I haven't listed the 13 seats - you'll just have to be mystified by that as the ARSE isn't your personal research tool but mine !!
All jokes aside, if ICM are any good, and given that Lab should really have a decent led t this stàge, isn't the 4/1 about a Tory outright win worth a small bet? Even if only for trading out purposes (will they reall drift much bigger pre 2015.)
It depends if you think ICM isn't an outlier but at this stage Labour should be streets ahead, and they haven't announced any policies yet. The issue as ever is for Cameron to shoot himself in the foot ( probable ) or Ed to speak english to the electorate ( unlikely ).
'How about posting for us the 7 SNP top target seats and the swings required, might put Jack Ws silliness into context for those who don't understand Scotlands electoral geography.'
JackW's silliness has form in predicting very accurate election results,why don't you try and learn from somebody that knows about this stuff instead of mouthing off all the time.
Polly Toynbee bemoaning the lack of affordable Tuscan villas? Sure fire vote winner.
@oflynnexpress: Why is Lab toughening its language on welfare, ask various Lefties. Because the polls show it has lost the argument with voters, that's why.
Mark Littlewood and Polly Toynbee in agreement that the benefit cap is a reflection of London rents and that housebuilding is the only solution.
The PB Tories will catch up eventually.
two metropolitans spout anecdotes and tim posts them.
It's hardly an anecdote that the benefits cap is a reflection of high rents.
tim, you're just spouting any old crap these days, there's no consistency. While I've had my disagreements with you over the years, at least you more often than not would score some hits. But today you're just cannon fodder for Miliband who doesn't know what the hell he's about. Remember all those posts you used to make about Osborne sending sacrificial lambs to cover his arse and then he'd change his mind ? Today that's you.
How about posting for us the 7 SNP top target seats and the swings required, might put Jack Ws silliness into context for those who don't understand Scotlands electoral geography.
Argyll and Bute (LD): swing required = 6.4% (from 4th place) Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (LD): swing required = 11.1% (from 3rd place) Edinburgh West (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 4th place, so also requires a significant slip in the Lab vote) Gordon (LD): swing required = 6.9% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD): swing required = 11% (from 3rd place) Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab): swing required = 5.2% West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 3rd place, so also requires a significant slip in the Con vote)
It becomes clear that either JackW is a complete nincompoop, or else he is trying to build up a totally implausible straw man scenario that the SNP "failed to meet their target".
Twitter James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 2m @ianbirrell correct. Seems Tories have learned their lesson from Staffs. They think they've got Burnham on ropes
How about posting for us the 7 SNP top target seats and the swings required, might put Jack Ws silliness into context for those who don't understand Scotlands electoral geography.
Argyll and Bute (LD): swing required = 6.4% (from 4th place) Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (LD): swing required = 11.1% (from 3rd place) Edinburgh West (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 4th place, so also requires a significant slip in the Lab vote) Gordon (LD): swing required = 6.9% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD): swing required = 11% (from 3rd place) Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab): swing required = 5.2% West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 3rd place, so also requires a significant slip in the Con vote)
It becomes clear that either JackW is a complete nincompoop, or else he is trying to build up a totally implausible straw man scenario that the SNP "failed to meet their target".
Take your pick.
Take your pick.
Ok I pick the last Holyrood elections for inclusion. Care to fling a few numbers up Stuart or don't they count toward election projections ??
"The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 will be investigated by media watchdog Ofcom after they gave radical clerical Anjem Choudary airtime following the murder of Drummer Lee Rigby.
Viewers complained after the extremist, 45, was given star billing on shows including Newsnight and Daybreak, where he refused to condemn the soldier's brutal killing.
Father-of-one Lee Rigby was run down with a car and then hacked to death with machetes in a Woolwich street on May 22, allegedly by two Muslim converts.
In the following 24 hours Choudary was invited to do a series of interviews on national television, which led to 20 complaints from the public.
Today Ofcom decided there were clear grounds to investigate whether the three broadcasters breached their code of conduct."
Mark Littlewood and Polly Toynbee in agreement that the benefit cap is a reflection of London rents and that housebuilding is the only solution.
The PB Tories will catch up eventually.
Private rental levels are far more sensitive to movements in capital values of property than they are to supply of new housing.
Landlords need a return on their investment. Traditionally this return has come from capital appreciation and rental income. When capital values fall below the rate of inflation landlords will increase rents to compensate. When capital values increase above the rate of inflation then rental yields fall.
Between 2007 and 2012 property values have fallen at rates well below inflation. As a result rents have increased above inflation rates.
The slow recovery of the housing market (it is still well below peak 2007 peak levels in real terms) will see rental increases abate and eventually fall.
Supply of new housing will also have an impact on rents but nowhere near the level you are predicting, tim. The reason for this is that 90% of new dwellings are built by profit seeking private construction companies. And they will only build when there is sufficient demand for their output.
At present the private sector is building at a rate of 120,000 new properties per year which is about 60% of the mid noughties rates. This will climb over the next five years back to mid noughties rates of 200,000 per annum but only as house prices recover their falls, credit supply increases and demand returns to the market.
You may argue that interventionary state financed building of social housing would increase supply and thereby reduce rents but this would involve substantial increases to government borrowing and embedded subsidies to the social housing sector which are unsustainable.
Social housing also services a different market segment to private sector built dwellings. Increased availability of council housing in an area would not necessarily depress private house sales values or rental yields. Council house dwellings and private sector new builds are different products with differing target markets.
How about posting for us the 7 SNP top target seats and the swings required, might put Jack Ws silliness into context for those who don't understand Scotlands electoral geography.
Argyll and Bute (LD): swing required = 6.4% (from 4th place) Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (LD): swing required = 11.1% (from 3rd place) Edinburgh West (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 4th place, so also requires a significant slip in the Lab vote) Gordon (LD): swing required = 6.9% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD): swing required = 11% (from 3rd place) Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab): swing required = 5.2% West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 3rd place, so also requires a significant slip in the Con vote)
It becomes clear that either JackW is a complete nincompoop, or else he is trying to build up a totally implausible straw man scenario that the SNP "failed to meet their target".
Take your pick.
Take your pick.
Ok I pick the last Holyrood elections for inclusion. Care to fling a few numbers up Stuart or don't they count toward election projections ??
So, you are claiming that because the SNP's Colin Weir won Edinburgh Western (a smaller constituency on different boundaries note) at a Scottish parliamentary GE then somehow it automatically follows that the Westminster seat of Edinburgh West is in the bag?
Here is how Edinburgh West voted in 2010:
Liberal Democrats (Mike Crockart) 16,684 36% Labour 12,881 28% Conservative 10,767 23% SNP 6,115 13%
How about posting for us the 7 SNP top target seats and the swings required, might put Jack Ws silliness into context for those who don't understand Scotlands electoral geography.
Argyll and Bute (LD): swing required = 6.4% (from 4th place) Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (LD): swing required = 11.1% (from 3rd place) Edinburgh West (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 4th place, so also requires a significant slip in the Lab vote) Gordon (LD): swing required = 6.9% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD): swing required = 11% (from 3rd place) Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab): swing required = 5.2% West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 3rd place, so also requires a significant slip in the Con vote)
It becomes clear that either JackW is a complete nincompoop, or else he is trying to build up a totally implausible straw man scenario that the SNP "failed to meet their target".
Take your pick.
Take your pick.
Ok I pick the last Holyrood elections for inclusion. Care to fling a few numbers up Stuart or don't they count toward election projections ??
Of course Holyrood elections don't count towards Westminster election projections. Or are you seriously trying to argue that the 2007 Holyrood elections were a guide to 2010 Westminster elections?
Nobody in their right mind would do that.
Nobody in their right mind would discount them either or the subsequent SNP majority government.
Nobody in their right mind would also fail to note Gordon's solid result in Scotland in 2010 and the likely lack of same from Ed in 2015.
So, you are claiming that because the SNP's Colin Weir won Edinburgh Western (a smaller constituency on different boundaries note) at a Scottish parliamentary GE then somehow it automatically follows that the Westminster seat of Edinburgh West is in the bag?
Here is how Edinburgh West voted in 2010:
Liberal Democrats (John Barrett) 22,417 50% Conservative 8,817 20% Labour 8,433 19% SNP 4,124 9% Scottish Green 964 2% Scottish Socialist 510 1%
tim says "Stuart will take you apart seat by seat, I'd just ask you to look at turnout in the Holyrood and Westminster elections before you continue making a fool of yourself"
yet rod says stuart's got his facts "Wrong election. That was 2005! "
i'd say tim's made himself look a fool within seconds if that's right! How delicious.
How about posting for us the 7 SNP top target seats and the swings required, might put Jack Ws silliness into context for those who don't understand Scotlands electoral geography.
Argyll and Bute (LD): swing required = 6.4% (from 4th place) Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (LD): swing required = 11.1% (from 3rd place) Edinburgh West (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 4th place, so also requires a significant slip in the Lab vote) Gordon (LD): swing required = 6.9% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD): swing required = 11% (from 3rd place) Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab): swing required = 5.2% West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 3rd place, so also requires a significant slip in the Con vote)
It becomes clear that either JackW is a complete nincompoop, or else he is trying to build up a totally implausible straw man scenario that the SNP "failed to meet their target".
Take your pick.
Take your pick.
Ok I pick the last Holyrood elections for inclusion. Care to fling a few numbers up Stuart or don't they count toward election projections ??
So, you are claiming that because the SNP's Colin Weir won Edinburgh Western (a smaller constituency on different boundaries note) at a Scottish parliamentary GE then somehow it automatically follows that the Westminster seat of Edinburgh West is in the bag?
Here is how Edinburgh West voted in 2010:
Liberal Democrats (John Barrett) 22,417 50% Conservative 8,817 20% Labour 8,433 19% SNP 4,124 9% Scottish Green 964 2% Scottish Socialist 510 1%
Please tell us that you are kidding Jack.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Whatever else that poll looks like definitive proof that UKIP harm the Tories more than Labour. As a few of us have been saying relentlessly for th elast three years we are heading for a hung Parliament in 2015.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
"Stuart will take you apart seat by seat, I'd just ask you to look at turnout in the Holyrood and Westminster elections before you continue making a fool of yourself"
It really comes to something when "tim" runs the "making a fool of yourself" card against someone.
After your miserable embarrassment this morning "tim" you are beyond parody, almost trumped by Stuart's "governments lose elections" tour de force earlier this evening.
You couldn't make it up .... but of course you do "tim"
Mr. Dickson, I suspect that the SNP could do well indeed in 2015.
If Scotland votes for separation who else would you want to back?
If Scotland votes No then unionists can vote the SNP, safe in the knowledge that won't lead to separation. E. Miliband loses the Brown bonus in Scotland, the Lib Dems have been in coalition with the Conservatives and the blues are unlikely to take many seats. It's a good place for the SNP to be.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
Guido's insight into the Labour party guide to policy making.
Monday:Government announces policy Tuesday:Condemn policy (mock outrage stage) Wednesday: Criticise policy at PMQ's Thursday:Try to come up with an alternative policy;fail Friday:Refuse to say if you would reverse it Saturday:Polls show the public support gov't policy Sunday:Adopt it as official Labour policy.You have always supported the policy.Quickly say something about millionaires.
Stuart will take you apart seat by seat, I'd just ask you to look at turnout in the Holyrood and Westminster elections before you continue making a fool of yourself
It really comes to something when "tim" runs the "making a fool of yourself" card against someone.
After your miserable embarrassment this morning "tim" you are beyond parody, almost trumped by Stuart's "governments lose elections" tour de force earlier this evening.
You couldn't make it up .... but of course you do "tim"
Calling all farmers .... calling all farmers !!
'Opposition parties don’t win General elections, Government lose them' is a common maxim in politics. I'm surprised you have never heard it before Jack.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
Right now I feel that most people have a profound dislike of perceived scroungers. The policy (whatever it is) could be seen as hitting the vulnerable and weak, or getting tough on those whose lifestyle choice is to do nothing but leech on the taxpayer. Have to see what the policy is.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
time to come clean Jack, there a 5 seats in Glasgow and the SNP said they would win the council like they did. So that's a clear five and nobody on the SNP could argue otherwise ;-)
"'Opposition parties don’t win General elections, Government lose them' is a common maxim in politics. I'm surprised you have never heard it before Jack."
Common maxim or Utter Boll*cks .... tricky given the evidence .... NOT.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
Lol - just read through the whole thread - most "PB tories" with calm and measured responses -Tim, Pork and others posting like crazy.! Oddly other SNPers joining in which is odd as this must be good news for the Yes campaign. Oh and for once OGH hasn't got much to say.
Whoops. Helps if you copy n paste the correct election result.
Liberal Democrats (Mike Crockart) 16,684 36% Labour 12,881 28% Conservative 10,767 23% SNP 6,115 13%
But the point still stands. It is a vast long shot for the SNP.
I agree with you there, Stuart. On the Aberdeen Donside swing, the LDs would regain the Edinburgh Western Holyrood seat, and they usually do better at Westminster elections. The LDs no longer run the council, which works in their favour too.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
Well, for starters, I have never contended that the Scottish electorate will vote 'Yes' in the referendum. I haven't got a clue how they will vote, and anybody who says they do is either a fool or liar.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
time to come clean Jack, there a 5 seats in Glasgow and the SNP said they would win the council like they did. So that's a clear five and nobody on the SNP could argue otherwise ;-)
Whoops. Helps if you copy n paste the correct election result.
Liberal Democrats (Mike Crockart) 16,684 36% Labour 12,881 28% Conservative 10,767 23% SNP 6,115 13%
But the point still stands. It is a vast long shot for the SNP.
I agree with you there, Stuart. On the Aberdeen Donside swing, the LDs would regain the Edinburgh Western Holyrood seat, and they usually do better at Westminster elections. The LDs no longer run the council, which works in their favour too.
Which once again begs the question: which 13 seats is JackW predicting that the SNP are going to win? If not Edinburgh West or Caithness et al, then where?
Comments
Swingback has been occurring since around February - It was only a matter of time before we had a poll come in like this.
Labour can only go down (over the cycle of the Parliament) from here.
Personally, I think that NOM is way too short.
"The Conservative backbencher has been criticised by Todd Foreman, Labour’s parliamentary candidate for his North East Somerset seat, who says Mr Rees-Mogg should quit his city job and put his constituents first.
Mr Foreman, who has pledged not to take outside paid employment if he is elected, said Mr Rees-Mogg’s £133,543-a-year role as a partner at investment manager Somerset Capital Management was a distraction. He said: “Being an MP is an enormous privilege and should be a full-time job. MPs are paid an annual salary of £66,396, which is over three times more than the median gross annual earnings in North East Somerset of £21,060. An MP's salary is more than enough for anyone to live on and there is no need for MPs to take outside employment to make ends meet.”
He added: “How can Jacob Rees-Mogg be doing his job as MP properly and also doing enough outside work to justify such earnings? How can serving the residents of North East Somerset be Mr Rees-Mogg's top priority if he is earning twice as much in another job? Jacob Rees-Mogg should put his constituents first and spend the remainder of his term working full-time for the residents of North East Somerset.”
But Mr Rees-Mogg has hit back at “career politicians.” He said: “Unfortunately, those who are professional politicians always need to climb the greasy pole because it is their only chance to boost their earnings. The politician with outside interests is much freer. Outside interests are beneficial to MPs and their constituents. Outside interests keep Members of Parliament up to date on the realities of business and employment life and allow them to see how government policies work in practice.”
Mr Rees-Mogg said his outside interest had never distracted him from his constituency or Parliamentary duties where he is one of the most regular speakers with a voting record of 95 per cent." http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/MP-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-hits-second-job-jibe/story-19521477-detail/story.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Given the Parliamentary cycle is always for support to move TOWARDS the government as the election nears and given the recovering economy, what exactly is going to happen for Labour to reverse this trend?
Of course, polls will fluctuate, but overall I can't see Labour's position doing anything other than dropping from here.
I already have asked him which 13 seats he means, and he noticeably failed to answer my question.
Either JackW is assuming a total, complete and utter SLD rout (eg. SNP winning Edinburgh West from 4th place!!), or else he is assuming that the SLAB vote is going to plummet below 34%, from 42% in 2010.
Or, a 3rd possibility is that JackW just makes up some daft numbers in his heid and hasn't really thought things through.
So a bad poll for Labour and what do you do? You attack other posters. That must have been a 1/10 shot.
If you want to vote tactically against Danny, who do you vote for, because Lab and the SNP are fairly close in share of the vote in the seat.
Judging by the Holyrood polling, the SNP have the big mo in Scottish politics?
I wonder if we could see a 92 result of Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber, with 3 parties within 1.3% of each other?
The hysteria from some PB tories does make it easier and tempting to ignore this one poll but it's still ICM and there have been other polls that were hinting at a tory recovery, however slight or gradual it may be.
Osbrowne lost the tories their competence ticket with his omnishambles budget and they've been struggling ever since with Farage constantly nipping at their heels. It's possible they might be getting some of those lost voters back now and Farage may not have any real staying power in the end. FPTP will hammer the kippers regardless in 2015.
It's making things interesting at least and shifting the betting markets a touch as well.
It could easily be one rogue poll and things are likely to be more febrile at this time in the summer political cycle. We'll have to wait and see.
Reminding oneself of the CON performances in those two seats brings tears to the eyes once again.
Edinburgh South - CON 3rd place with -2.5%
Edinburgh South West - LAB extend MAJ over CON to 8447
ScottP is pure comedy gold.
You mean like Maggie lost in 83 and 87, Major losing in 92 and Blair losing in 01 and 05.
More comedy gold from Dickson of the North.
The polling companies who have changed their methodology to improve UKIP's share, despite that never having been reflected in an actual general election will have egg on their face. Well and truly putting the cart before the horse.
England!!!!!!
I'm not sure I'm going to be able to cope with four more test matches like that.
Whether its an outlier or not really doesn't matter - its the psychological impact on jangling nerves in the Labour ranks and tails-up on the Tory benches.
Pure comedy gold.
Given Cabinet moved to Thursday and tomorrow is going to be Keoghtastic, it looks increasingly like reshuffle starts leaking late tomo/Wed.
Good to see Lucian posting about betting opportunities over on his blog too.
You can fool some of the people some of the time. Unless you are JackW, who can't fool anybody.
On top of the bullish E&Y economic forecasts, my laying of the reds majority on betfair is for once working out! Now to get Yvette in asap as LoTO.
Maybe they're going for the scattergun approach? If ukip do well, badly or indifferently they can say they were right in one poll
Anyway, global warmists & the EDL, peas in a pod...
Andrew Neil (@afneil)
15/07/2013 20:21
Sunday Politics interview on global warming results in twitter line being infested by almost as many unpleasant obsessives as EDL interview
"Tories have it sealed", July 2013. One for tim's database methinks.
Where do I claim my 21 Guineas?
As anyone who read the thread this morning will see you specifically asked me NOT for the Summer 2008 ARSE projections for 2010 but the July 2008 one and I advised you plainly there wasn't one.
You also asked me for a recent record of the ARSE and I gave you chapter and verse on the last national outing being the 2012 Presidential Election.
You say "everbody" is "mystified" by the SNP projection of 13 seats. Well hardly unless "everybody" is actually just you.
It's true I haven't listed the 13 seats - you'll just have to be mystified by that as the ARSE isn't your personal research tool but mine !!
Labour trying to catch up. Liam Byrne left a note that reads "sorry, there are no policy differences left"
LOL
Silly me.
'How about posting for us the 7 SNP top target seats and the swings required, might put Jack Ws silliness into context for those who don't understand Scotlands electoral geography.'
JackW's silliness has form in predicting very accurate election results,why don't you try and learn from somebody that knows about this stuff instead of mouthing off all the time.
@oflynnexpress: Why is Lab toughening its language on welfare, ask various Lefties. Because the polls show it has lost the argument with voters, that's why.
Pleased to see you agree with Boris that Heathrow should be turned into a new London borough and housing for 250,000 people.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (LD): swing required = 11.1% (from 3rd place)
Edinburgh West (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 4th place, so also requires a significant slip in the Lab vote)
Gordon (LD): swing required = 6.9%
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD): swing required = 11% (from 3rd place)
Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab): swing required = 5.2%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 3rd place, so also requires a significant slip in the Con vote)
It becomes clear that either JackW is a complete nincompoop, or else he is trying to build up a totally implausible straw man scenario that the SNP "failed to meet their target".
Take your pick.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 2m
@ianbirrell correct. Seems Tories have learned their lesson from Staffs. They think they've got Burnham on ropes
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (LD): swing required = 11.1% (from 3rd place)
Edinburgh West (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 4th place, so also requires a significant slip in the Lab vote)
Gordon (LD): swing required = 6.9%
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD): swing required = 11% (from 3rd place)
Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab): swing required = 5.2%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD): swing required = 11.4% (from poor 3rd place, so also requires a significant slip in the Con vote)
It becomes clear that either JackW is a complete nincompoop, or else he is trying to build up a totally implausible straw man scenario that the SNP "failed to meet their target".
Take your pick.
Take your pick.
Ok I pick the last Holyrood elections for inclusion. Care to fling a few numbers up Stuart or don't they count toward election projections ??
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23306092
"The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 will be investigated by media watchdog Ofcom after they gave radical clerical Anjem Choudary airtime following the murder of Drummer Lee Rigby.
Viewers complained after the extremist, 45, was given star billing on shows including Newsnight and Daybreak, where he refused to condemn the soldier's brutal killing.
Father-of-one Lee Rigby was run down with a car and then hacked to death with machetes in a Woolwich street on May 22, allegedly by two Muslim converts.
In the following 24 hours Choudary was invited to do a series of interviews on national television, which led to 20 complaints from the public.
Today Ofcom decided there were clear grounds to investigate whether the three broadcasters breached their code of conduct."
Landlords need a return on their investment. Traditionally this return has come from capital appreciation and rental income. When capital values fall below the rate of inflation landlords will increase rents to compensate. When capital values increase above the rate of inflation then rental yields fall.
Between 2007 and 2012 property values have fallen at rates well below inflation. As a result rents have increased above inflation rates.
The slow recovery of the housing market (it is still well below peak 2007 peak levels in real terms) will see rental increases abate and eventually fall.
Supply of new housing will also have an impact on rents but nowhere near the level you are predicting, tim. The reason for this is that 90% of new dwellings are built by profit seeking private construction companies. And they will only build when there is sufficient demand for their output.
At present the private sector is building at a rate of 120,000 new properties per year which is about 60% of the mid noughties rates. This will climb over the next five years back to mid noughties rates of 200,000 per annum but only as house prices recover their falls, credit supply increases and demand returns to the market.
You may argue that interventionary state financed building of social housing would increase supply and thereby reduce rents but this would involve substantial increases to government borrowing and embedded subsidies to the social housing sector which are unsustainable.
Social housing also services a different market segment to private sector built dwellings. Increased availability of council housing in an area would not necessarily depress private house sales values or rental yields. Council house dwellings and private sector new builds are different products with differing target markets.
Ok I pick the last Holyrood elections for inclusion. Care to fling a few numbers up Stuart or don't they count toward election projections ??
So, you are claiming that because the SNP's Colin Weir won Edinburgh Western (a smaller constituency on different boundaries note) at a Scottish parliamentary GE then somehow it automatically follows that the Westminster seat of Edinburgh West is in the bag?
Here is how Edinburgh West voted in 2010:
Liberal Democrats (Mike Crockart) 16,684 36%
Labour 12,881 28%
Conservative 10,767 23%
SNP 6,115 13%
Please tell us that you are kidding Jack.
Or are you seriously trying to argue that the 2007 Holyrood elections were a guide to 2010 Westminster elections?
Nobody in their right mind would do that.
Nobody in their right mind would discount them either or the subsequent SNP majority government.
Nobody in their right mind would also fail to note Gordon's solid result in Scotland in 2010 and the likely lack of same from Ed in 2015.
Nobody in their right mind "tim" ....
Ah, silly me.
Whilst a nicer poll than most, I'd guess it's an outlier.
tim says "Stuart will take you apart seat by seat, I'd just ask you to look at turnout in the Holyrood and Westminster elections before you continue making a fool of yourself"
yet rod says stuart's got his facts "Wrong election. That was 2005! "
i'd say tim's made himself look a fool within seconds if that's right! How delicious.
Liberal Democrats (Mike Crockart) 16,684 36%
Labour 12,881 28%
Conservative 10,767 23%
SNP 6,115 13%
But the point still stands. It is a vast long shot for the SNP.
Here is how Edinburgh West voted in 2010:
Liberal Democrats (John Barrett) 22,417 50%
Conservative 8,817 20%
Labour 8,433 19%
SNP 4,124 9%
Scottish Green 964 2%
Scottish Socialist 510 1%
Please tell us that you are kidding Jack.
I'm saying unlike you and "tim" I don't operate the "Woolworths Election Theory" - Pick-n-Mix to suit.
However perhaps you might indulge me a wee bit ?
Is it you contention that the SNP will triumph in the referendum and then not gain seats, even the projected 13 seats in 2015 ?
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
"Stuart will take you apart seat by seat, I'd just ask you to look at turnout in the Holyrood and Westminster elections before you continue making a fool of yourself"
.............................................................................................
It really comes to something when "tim" runs the "making a fool of yourself" card against someone.
After your miserable embarrassment this morning "tim" you are beyond parody, almost trumped by Stuart's "governments lose elections" tour de force earlier this evening.
You couldn't make it up .... but of course you do "tim"
Calling all farmers .... calling all farmers !!
If Scotland votes for separation who else would you want to back?
If Scotland votes No then unionists can vote the SNP, safe in the knowledge that won't lead to separation. E. Miliband loses the Brown bonus in Scotland, the Lib Dems have been in coalition with the Conservatives and the blues are unlikely to take many seats. It's a good place for the SNP to be.
7% or so is where UKIP will be in 2015, but in the long run, UKIP is gaining support, while the Conservatives are shedding it.
One thing that I do contend though is that the 5/1 that William Hill are currently offering on 'Yes' is good value.
And dear Jack, you do realise that "the projected 13 seats in 2015" is just a figment of your imagination, don't you? It is *you* doing the projecting for heaven's sake.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
Front of independent,will this headline be good news or bad news for the tories ?
Monday:Government announces policy
Tuesday:Condemn policy (mock outrage stage)
Wednesday: Criticise policy at PMQ's
Thursday:Try to come up with an alternative policy;fail
Friday:Refuse to say if you would reverse it
Saturday:Polls show the public support gov't policy
Sunday:Adopt it as official Labour policy.You have always supported the policy.Quickly say something about millionaires.
http://www.studymode.com/essays/Opposition-Parties-Don-t-Win-General-Elections-1346941.html
The Tory strategy for winning the next election: fanning prejudice about some of Britain’s poorest pic.twitter.com/bHYZ38ZHl4 We must stop them
This lad does make me laugh.
Is David Cameron a fool or a liar?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/coalition-claims-it-has-won-battle-for-no-vote-in-referendum.21607716
Right now I feel that most people have a profound dislike of perceived scroungers. The policy (whatever it is) could be seen as hitting the vulnerable and weak, or getting tough on those whose lifestyle choice is to do nothing but leech on the taxpayer. Have to see what the policy is.
Interesting. So is Alex Salmond a" fool or liar" ?
time to come clean Jack, there a 5 seats in Glasgow and the SNP said they would win the council like they did. So that's a clear five and nobody on the SNP could argue otherwise ;-)
"'Opposition parties don’t win General elections, Government lose them' is a common maxim in politics. I'm surprised you have never heard it before Jack."
Common maxim or Utter Boll*cks .... tricky given the evidence .... NOT.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/coalition-claims-it-has-won-battle-for-no-vote-in-referendum.21607716
Neither, but what say you of Alex Salmond according to your own statement ??
'The Tory strategy for winning the next election'
Giving Owen Jones more media exposure?
ICM poll puts Lab & Tories neck-and-neck. One-off, but begs question: "who's got Ed M's back?" My blog frm last week:
time to come clean Jack, there a 5 seats in Glasgow and the SNP said they would win the council like they did. So that's a clear five and nobody on the SNP could argue otherwise ;-)
Most unkind of you "Alanbrooke" .... most unkind
Titters ....