politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leader

iSTM that the only real comparison we have for scale is post-WW2.

My take is that *then* most people *wanted* to go back home.

This time that is a difference.

Which suggests that keeping the population in the region is critical.

Also, Schengen Delenda Est.

dr_spyn said:

Disraeli said:

I perfectly understand the compassionate desire to accept Assylum seekers into the UK. It's something that we have always done, are doing now, and I hope always will do.

A question for Yvette Cooper, though:
Where does this wonderfully round number of 10,000 per month come from? How did you work it out Ms Cooper?

Her Spads were playing darts, and plucked the number out of the air.

That would take an awfully long time. Don't they have better things to do?

Went for Corbyn. Then checked and found that only 3-4 had gone for someone else [one brave soul went for Kendall].

Mr. W, individual countries within Shengen are adopting wildly different approaches. What happens when the German-bound hordes are given leave to stay, and then go to the Netherlands, which is less welcoming?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, individual countries within Shengen are adopting wildly different approaches. What happens when the German-bound hordes are given leave to stay, and then go to the Netherlands, which is less welcoming?

Indeed. Country by country.

Mr. Foxinsox, you are Ed Miliband and I claim an 8' block of engraved limestone.

That's a lovely theory, and, I suspect, utterly at odds with reality.

JEO said:

I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.

Mr. Eagles, what did he do? Did he start an "I love Mark Reckless" fan club?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Foxinsox, you are Ed Miliband and I claim an 8' block of engraved limestone.

That's a lovely theory, and, I suspect, utterly at odds with reality.

It is my own "modest proposal"!

Financier said:

Re: the PB Poll: of the 77 who have responded, 31.5% voted Labour at the GE, 27.4% Cons; LD 15.1% ; UKIP 6.8%, Green: 6.8%; Private/other 12.3%

I can't stand this hard right circle jerk of a website.

Mr. Paris, 'circle jerk' is so working class. I think you mean an 'onanists' oval'.

Tykejohnno said:

I'm getting to the point I wouldn't mind a military coup.

Putin would sort it!

Cyclefree said:

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

watford30 said:

Plato said:

And when is over, over?

Never.

NickPalmer said:

Plato has misread Cooper, I think - she has said we could take in 10,000 refugees in a month to address the immediate crisis, not that we should do so every month forever. Again it's not a solution because there aren't any solutions, but it's a small contribution and would be better than merely muttering in our beards: "That won't work...no that won't work...no, that's no good..."

10,000 largely aggressive young men a month - a sure fire recipe for disaster as we import the ME's problems to northern Europe. Just wait until the various long held animosities and conflicts boil over here.

"10,000 largely aggressive young men a month..."

No wonder some people are so keen to let them all in

A quick bootcamp and a bit of weapons training and we have a Foreign Legion to take on ISIS; Cannon fodder, ISIS gone and a place to settle refugees sorted - problem solved

Isn't that the Roman solution? You had to fight for the Roman Empire against the barbarians and earn your citizenship. If it helps protect the remnants of that glorious empire so much the better, though the temple at Palmyra has been confirmed as destroyed, sadly.

Yes. Or Starship Troopers.

antifrank said:

Alanbrooke said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

Well Europe has a number of offshore places which could be used: St Helena, the Falklands, South Georgia, Reunion etc.

OK, fine (although it's a very different suggestion from the original proposal of camps in countries nearer the source of the migration).

But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?

We have occasional pb hysteria days. Today is one of those days. If you were to believe pb's paleo-conservatives, kippers and fellow travellers, you'd think that the barbarians were at the gate.

Meanwhile, to put things into context, here's a nice chart via Faisal Islam showing who goes where:

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 6m6 minutes ago
graphic from @ReutersFlasseur on migrant crisis: UK does not register as a "receiving country" http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/migrants/index.html#section-reuters-section-1 …

So in other words you've convinced no-one.

We're in tertiary stage hysteria, where facts are dismissed out of hand and nonsense is treated as gospel. I'm not expecting reasoned argument to get through the hyperventilation.

Better to panic on the prospect than after the event? Isn't that what's happening with JC and I didn't notice you standing off.

Perusing the summary of the competition, mine are pretty close to the average. The largest difference is that I have Cooper ahead of Burnham. It'll be interesting to see who finishes ahead (as well as whether or not Corbyn actually does win).

Ditto. - Also Kendall in single figures – which was probably too generous

Plato said:

I've YC over AB too.

Morris_Dancer said:

Perusing the summary of the competition, mine are pretty close to the average. The largest difference is that I have Cooper ahead of Burnham. It'll be interesting to see who finishes ahead (as well as whether or not Corbyn actually does win).

antifrank said:

Alanbrooke said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

Well Europe has a number of offshore places which could be used: St Helena, the Falklands, South Georgia, Reunion etc.

OK, fine (although it's a very different suggestion from the original proposal of camps in countries nearer the source of the migration).

But my question still remains: what then happens to the 90% (or whatever the number ends up as) who are refused entry?

We have occasional pb hysteria days. Today is one of those days. If you were to believe pb's paleo-conservatives, kippers and fellow travellers, you'd think that the barbarians were at the gate.

Meanwhile, to put things into context, here's a nice chart via Faisal Islam showing who goes where:

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam · 6m6 minutes ago
graphic from @ReutersFlasseur on migrant crisis: UK does not register as a "receiving country" http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/migrants/index.html#section-reuters-section-1 …

So in other words you've convinced no-one.

We're in tertiary stage hysteria, where facts are dismissed out of hand and nonsense is treated as gospel. I'm not expecting reasoned argument to get through the hyperventilation.

This is probably the price of having 8 million foreign born here now. It's not the 4000 at Calais, or "Ms Cooper's 10K" (per month or per year), it's the increasing realisation of those who are already legally here that there appears to be no end to the numbers our politicians decide they want to let in.

We are currently effectively having to, generate electricity, provide gas, water, roads, rails, schools, hospitals, and language services each year for a new city about the size of Southampton/Coventry/Nottingham etc and have been doing so for years with no apparent end in sight. All this before we mention pressure on housing, wage rates and just the sheer change parts (generally the less well off parts too) of the existing population are having to put up with. It's migration fatigue. Sadly, however deserving Syrians are in the main (beyond doubt), the likes of Ms Cooper should be looking in the mirror and reflecting that the vast increases we've had since the mid 90's are now playing their part in current feeling. How many is "enough", given demand to live in W Europe as opposed to the Sahel, or poor bits of the M East is potentially nigh on limitless?

ReggieCide said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

According to Plato,Yvette cooper want's ten thousand Syrian refugees a month,I thought it was a one off.

She's mad(if true)this is what Germany proberly did under Merkel and now we have a immigration crisis with most heading to soft touch Germany.

Our political elite haven't a clue.

Cooper is suggesting that every town, local council, whatever, takes 10 Syrian families.

Then another 10 join them no doubt, and so the craziness spirals out of control.

How big's a Syrian family?

According to the UNHCR registration database, the average family size is
4.5. However, an inter-agency nutrition assessment indicated a higher
average family size of 6.2 people http://www.mapaction.org/component/mapcat/download/2924.html?fmt=pdf

see Page 6

JEO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JEO said:

I completely despair at my own party sometimes. They've banned a moderate Out group from having a stall at the party conference:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3216507/Why-Dave-banned-anti-EU-campaigners-asks-ANDREW-PIERCE.html

All the other parties are allowing them. What the hell is wrong with the Tory leadership? I thought we were supposed to be having an open and fair debate? But now they feel Tory activists can't be allowed to hear the Brexit arguments, in case they form the wrong conclusion?

Hell would freeze over before the Tories let Aaron Banks anywhere near their conference after his antics last year.

Most Tories would tell him to f*ck right off, so they are doing him a favour.

What did he do? Other than dare to give money to another party? If Labour let him in, we can certainly do the same.

As I said below, it was the timing and the manner of his behaviour that irked so many Tories, including many Eurosceptics.

His actions was designed to inflict maximum damage to the Tory Party.

No wonder Labour are welcoming him with open arms to their conference.

TheScreamingEagles said:

As I said below, it was the timing and the manner of his behaviour that irked so many Tories, including many Eurosceptics.

His actions was designed to inflict maximum damage to the Tory Party.

No wonder Labour are welcoming him with open arms to their conference.

He's also a prize berk.

AndyJS said:

MarqueeMark said:

England should start considering accepting refugees when the population density of all other Schengen countries reaches that of ours.

Schengen will be long dead way before that ever comes to pass.

Merkel doesn't seem to understand that if you publicly announce you expect to take in 800,000 refugees the reality will be that a lot more than that will actually arrive.

Yeah. Nobody has yet said why the first 800,000 have any better rights than the next 8,000,000. Other than survival of the fittest. How very Germanic....

Mr. 63, little tells people have can be interesting to observe. Politicians have lots (I say to you/look/let me tell you etc).

When I had a weird hour or two 'working' for HMRC (I was pretending to be interviewed to give people who would later be conducting job interviews practice) and found a question difficult to answer, the slow sip of water worked well to give me time to answer.

Channel 4 stream has started (it's up on Youtube).

BBC Top read story is a gem:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-34115350

The woman had gone to use the toilet ahead of the opening of the Newlyn Fish Festival in Cornwall.

Harbour master Rob Parsons said she must have "thought she had teleported" when she came out of the toilet in a new location.

But the best bit is here:

He said it was an easy mistake to make as drivers "go in through the back entrance" to pick up the toilet.

He said: "It does happen quite a bit to be honest - I've done it a few times."

Plato said:

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/

Every time I see the four together, Frankie Boyle’s brilliantly funny quote pops into my head.

‘Every photo of the candidates looks like the staff room of a failing comprehensive feigning amusement at being photobombed by the janitor.’

madasafish said:

ReggieCide said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

According to Plato,Yvette cooper want's ten thousand Syrian refugees a month,I thought it was a one off.

She's mad(if true)this is what Germany proberly did under Merkel and now we have a immigration crisis with most heading to soft touch Germany.

Our political elite haven't a clue.

Cooper is suggesting that every town, local council, whatever, takes 10 Syrian families.

Then another 10 join them no doubt, and so the craziness spirals out of control.

How big's a Syrian family?

According to the UNHCR registration database, the average family size is
4.5. However, an inter-agency nutrition assessment indicated a higher
average family size of 6.2 people http://www.mapaction.org/component/mapcat/download/2924.html?fmt=pdf

see Page 6

Ta. I wasn't expecting to be told. I see this is an assessment so will in all probability be biased, but 6 is just about believable. Given some Western European benefits, health care etc they'll get to 8 in no time at all.

Bring
Back
Bale

Cooper looking at Burnham like an icy robot.

Corbyn thinks net immigration is very small.

Numbers not his strong point.

Morris_Dancer said:

Cooper looking at Burnham like an icy robot.

Not watching Mr Dancer,bet Burnham used the ukip factor ;-)

Jezza getting a decent amount of support in the Youtube sidebar.

Mr. Pulpstar, favourite such comment - Vote JC. Enslave the unborn!

calum said:

STV will be covering the Carmichael hearing live from 10.30am on 7th September:

http://theorkneyvole.com/2015/09/01/stv-to-televise-alistair-carmichael-court-hearing-live-in-uk-tv-first-scotland-news/

Hopefully he will get sent down for a long time.

Burnham and Corbyn disagreeing over whether Corbyn said Russia was provoked.

Seems to be the first testy moment. Burnham says we shouldn't make excuses for the Russian incursion.

Richard_Nabavi said:

JEO said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I can't see this idea of 'well-managed facilities' in Turkey or Tunisia or elsewhere for would-be asylum seekers is a runner. Why on earth would the governments of Turkey or Tunisia agree? It would be an invitation to very large numbers of migrants to head for these camps; after the Western European countries had accepted (say) 10% of them, what would happen to the other 90%? They'd become an immediate and huge problem for Turkey or Tunisia.

Australia does it.

No, Australia sends people who manage to arrive by boat in Australia to offshore-processing centres. That's very different from setting up pre-processing centres in countries closer to the countries of origin, which would act as a magnet for migrants.

we have plenty of islands that could be used

Plato said:

He looks rather bored to me - he feels he's won and it shows, especially when Burnham talks.

Morris_Dancer said:

Corbyn thinks net immigration is very small.

Numbers not his strong point.

Most people who are going to vote will have voted by now, so JC would be right to feel he has won.

All candidates will be feeling rather weary by now, as will the electorate.

Pulpstar said:

malcolmg said:

calum said:

STV will be covering the Carmichael hearing live from 10.30am on 7th September:

http://theorkneyvole.com/2015/09/01/stv-to-televise-alistair-carmichael-court-hearing-live-in-uk-tv-first-scotland-news/

Hopefully he will get sent down for a long time.

Lol, how long do you think he should get Malc. Isn't being removed as an MP as far as it should go, or is that not enough for you ?

Pulpstar , I am just sad hanging was repealed as well as drawing and quartering.

Why don't they say: "Sure, Jeremy, everyone needs to talk, but you're not effing George Mitchell, you're a backbencher." It's a ludicrous conceit that he is somehow part of the Middle East peace process.

All four agree nice cuts are needed. Not nasty Tory cuts.

Burnham claims Labour's more humane benefits policy [says the Conservatives are playing politics with it] was the reason for having fewer food banks then.

Actually, food banks numbers have continually risen since the middle of the last decade. Whether in boom, recession or recovery, the numbers have increased.

Oliver_PB said:

Say what you like about Corbyn, and I know many of you do, but his campaign has been tremendously well run. The steady stream of announcements on a variety of subjects has allowed Corbyn to set the agenda while forcing the others to scramble for a response or repeat platitudes. Corbyn's campaign has also made impressive use of the web and social media to engage people without feeling overly corporate, artificial or cynical. Particularly impressive given the candidate in question is in his 60s and won't have hired a bunch of PR gurus.

His announcements have been bonkers - which rather constrains his rivals ability to agree with them. They only appeal to his £3 entryists.

Liz Kendall has amazingly white teeth.