politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2016: New early state polling has Trump looking even str
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2016: New early state polling has Trump looking even stronger in the battle for the GOP nomination
New polling overnight shows the extent that Donald Trump is dominating the effort to win the Republican party nomination in the so called early states which are first to decide in the nomination race.
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Why Trump will never be POTUS, in one diagram
http://www.redstate.com/uploads/2015/08/TrumpHispanics-620x519.jpg
I generally read the headline articles and then go through the comments, reading those from posters who have proved enlightening or disturbing in the past. I'd guess, about half the comments. I love PB. it is like being able to go to a good pub at any hour of the day or night. Many of the discussions are truly informative - and the abuse of a very high standard. I know of a number of other lurkers, I hope I am not about to be blackballed.
(Come to think of it, that might improve some of the posts)
Peter Oborne on fine form in the Mail today. Complete rant, so facts strung together in a barely coherent potage. But fun to read!
The Jeremy Corbyn of the American Right.
Highly entertaining: shows up most other blog discussions as the dross they are.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34059249
Harriet's pink bus was a warning.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3210965/PETER-OBORNE-China-s-meltdown-believe-d-deluded-think-Britain-s-economy-safe.html
Betfair and Publicity Shy Paddy Power agree to a merger.
http://www.ft.com/fastft/382221/paddy-power-betfair-merge
There's a sentence that would have sent you to the funny farm a few weeks ago but now....
And welcome.
That's not really much better.
Is this shaping up to be the first American presidential election with turnout under 40%, and the first one where both candidates are over 70?
How much does it matter that Biden appears to have the nod from Obama?
Oops you said nomination not Presidency
That said, it is true that the government has taken a risk (to optimise growth) with the pace of deficit reduction and the consequential rebalancing of the economy. The plan back to balance is contingent upon there not being another world recession within the next 5 years and that is undoubtedly a gamble where the odds are less good than they were, if still probably odds on, just.
If only he had listened to Ed Balls when he was arguing that Osborne was not going fast enough or far enough on deficit reduction. If only he was listening to the critique of the Labour leadership contenders and the importance of genuine austerity to protect our economy from future risk. I mean it is not as if Labour would be insane enough to elect a leader whose answer to everything is more investment/spending by the State is it?
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/what-corbyn-moment-means-left
If it is a public endorsement and he goes campaigning for Biden then it will very significant.
That said, it still does not look like Biden will run unless Hillary trips up.
As a man said when putting on running shoes while he and his friend were being chased by a bear: 'It doesn't matter if I'm faster than the bear, I only have to be faster than you.'
73-77 doesn't sound that outlandishly old for a president to me actually - but 80+ is a bit old.
Odd to think that if Seleucus' father-in-law had given him a different present to celebrate the treaty/wedding the battle, and world history, would've gone very differently.
Edited extra bit: ahem, son-in-law*.
I've been harping on about this and told it may not matter this time. If the candidates are Clinton/Biden and Trump, of course, it surely won't unless an independent with broad appeal and loads of cash emerges. And the only one who's been mentioned in that context is Bloomberg, who is also in his 70s!
Corbyn is at least consistent. He cares little for growth or debt, just wants to borrow or print money and spend. That should pretty certainly result in devaluation and inflation.
1) Osborne unlike Brown was given a very poor economic inheritance when he became Chancellor
2) Osborne has never sought to undermine his PM unlike Brown
Because I will have in no way any fun writing about Trump and the Santorum surge.
On (2) we don't know that for sure. At this stage of new Labour the public persona was all sweetness and light.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Money-Dies-nightmare-Hyper-Inflation-x/dp/1906964440
According to Amazon, when it first came out the Times said that the then PM (I think it was Wilson at that stage) should put a copy beside every bed at Chequers as bedtime reading for his ministers!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34051133
Methodists are covered at least twice
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/25/woman-downs-whole-bottle-of-cognac-at-beijing-airport-security-control
It is also odd that left-leaners are still trying to criticise Osborne for cutting too fast and not cutting fast enough simultaneously.
Of course, at the very start candidates stood on their own, and the winner became POTUS and the runner-up VPOTUS. This then meant the VP was clear favourite next time around, which is why up to 1840 they often succeeded the President. Since then, the Vice President has generally spent eight years doing not much and becoming identified with unpopular policies (usually lots of them around after 8 years!) which is why I think they struggle to get elected in their own right (unless of course they 'ascend' to the presidency before that, but sometimes not even then - Ford, Arthur, Jackson).
@twlldun: Andy Burnham to offer "Northerner only" train carriages if elected.
To go with the bear escape analogy: running shoes are not required. A gentle stroll in flip flops is all that is fine. Corbyn is running towards the bear smearing himself in honey.
(2) At this stage was 2002. You're saying nobody in 2002 was writing about Blairites vs Brownites as I have a different recollection to you.
Blair didn't know stuff until it was announced in the actual budget.
Reports circulating the highest echelons of PB indicate that Jezza Corbyn has extended his women only night time railway carriage policy.
In an exclusive coup for PB and after extensive negotiations Mike Smithson has secured a policy commitment from the putative Labour leader that post PB functions any befuddled Hersham councillors of a certain vintage will be allowed exclusive use of railway carriages for 24 hours.
Female-only carriages are transparently sexist and should be resisted for that reason alone.
Reading through threads, a question: who is this Tim who keeps being mentioned? And "Ave it"?
Well you've got to hand it to the US, if that comes off they'll doing their bit to extend the working age to deal with the international pensions crisis!
Fiscal loosening helped the USA in making the following recession short and shallow, while in the UK, Brown managed to avoid entirely any recession.
At this point we had seen about nine years of uninterrupted economic growth, some of it eye watering. A recession was due.
The US went from healthy surpluses to exploding deficits. Both of these downturns/recessions ordinarily would have cleared the decks, and resulted in a housing crash...
Funny how segregating the well healed from the masses is no problem...
On the Blair-Brown thing, I think the relationship was poisoned from when Blair went back on agreements not to stand for the leadership.
Then more so when Lord Mandelbrot took Blairs side in the dispute and the machinations.
Brown had that whole "Kitchen Cabinet at the Savoy" thing that used to meet in Geoffrey Robinson's suite. I can recall policies being (allegedly!) scuppered out of pique because they didn't get on.
Written at at length by Andrew Rawnsley, amongst others.