politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020

Speedy said:

Survation best PM, by 2015 vote, CON, LAB, LD, UKIP, OTH :

Corbyn 16, 30, 20, 32, 36
Burnham 27, 28, 26, 22, 21
Cooper 17, 15, 20, 11, 14
Kendall 9, 7, 11, 9, 6

The_Apocalypse said:

I was watching the Last Leg and saw some of those Labour leadership videos. They are honestly hilarious.

Speedy said:

bigjohnowls said:

750+ jammed into the Old Fruitmarket in Glasgow to hear @jeremycorbyn give his 'Standing to Deliver' plan #JezWeCan

Jezza packs em in sends em home happy!

1000 actually.

If Corbyn starts doing rallies in stadiums he would have reached SNP levels.

Speedy said:

You have to laugh, a majority of Tory voters are in favour of rent controls according to survation.

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I was watching the Last Leg and saw some of those Labour leadership videos. They are honestly hilarious.

#isitok that #lastleg is more effective than the official opposition?

Great at taking the mickey from jihadis too!

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Survation General Election Poll

Conservatives 38.1%
Labour 32.6%
UKIP 14.7%
LibDems 6.1%
SNP 5%
Greens 2.6%
https://twitter.com/UKGE2020

Corbyn really hurting the Tories. SNP untouched.

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Survation General Election Poll

Conservatives 38.1%
Labour 32.6%
UKIP 14.7%
LibDems 6.1%
SNP 5%
Greens 2.6%
https://twitter.com/UKGE2020

Corbyn really hurting the Tories. SNP untouched.

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I was watching the Last Leg and saw some of those Labour leadership videos. They are honestly hilarious.

#isitok that #lastleg is more effective than the official opposition?

Great at taking the mickey from jihadis too!

The Last Leg guys should be the official opposition tbh. #AdamHillsforPM

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Survation General Election Poll

Conservatives 38.1%
Labour 32.6%
UKIP 14.7%
LibDems 6.1%
SNP 5%
Greens 2.6%
https://twitter.com/UKGE2020

Corbyn really hurting the Tories. SNP untouched.

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Survation General Election Poll

Conservatives 38.1%
Labour 32.6%
UKIP 14.7%
LibDems 6.1%
SNP 5%
Greens 2.6%
https://twitter.com/UKGE2020

Corbyn really hurting the Tories. SNP untouched.

I'm not sure where you get that from. Con up 1.3% from the GE, Lab up 2.1%, SNP up 0.3%, LD down 1.8%, UKIP up 2%, Green down 1.2%

Richard_Nabavi said:

Evening all.
The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory. Instead of facing up to this, we are getting lots of wishful thinking about how 1980s socialism, fantasy economics and sympathising with terrorists might not go down so badly with voters after all. Yeah, well, believe me, those sorts of thing will go down badly with voters, but that isn't the main danger for Labour: the danger is how badly they will go down with Labour MPs.
The guy isn't even in office yet, but already MPs and most of the senior figures are plotting to get rid of him - in public. Lord only knows what they are saying in private. How much worse will the in-fighting get before it gets better?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Evening all.

The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory. Instead of facing up to this, we are getting lots of wishful thinking about how 1980s socialism, fantasy economics and sympathising with terrorists might not go down so badly with voters after all. Yeah, well, believe me, those sorts of thing will go down badly with voters, but that isn't the main danger for Labour: the danger is how badly they will go down with Labour MPs.

The guy isn't even in office yet, but already MPs and most of the senior figures are plotting to get rid of him - in public. Lord only knows what they are saying in private. How much worse will the in-fighting get before it gets better?

Danny565 said:

Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)

I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.

I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I was watching the Last Leg and saw some of those Labour leadership videos. They are honestly hilarious.

#isitok that #lastleg is more effective than the official opposition?

Great at taking the mickey from jihadis too!

The Last Leg guys should be the official opposition tbh. #AdamHillsforPM

I've never heard of them - are they are a recent thing?

HYUFD said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

Survation General Election Poll

Conservatives 38.1%
Labour 32.6%
UKIP 14.7%
LibDems 6.1%
SNP 5%
Greens 2.6%
https://twitter.com/UKGE2020

Corbyn really hurting the Tories. SNP untouched.

Tories up a point on election, SNP unchanged. Tonight C4 news interviewed several young Scots at the Corbyn rally who said they may switch from SNP to a Corbyn-led Labour

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I was watching the Last Leg and saw some of those Labour leadership videos. They are honestly hilarious.

#isitok that #lastleg is more effective than the official opposition?

Great at taking the mickey from jihadis too!

The Last Leg guys should be the official opposition tbh. #AdamHillsforPM

I've never heard of them - are they are a recent thing?

tlg86 said:

MP_SE said:

AndyJS said:

UKIP on 19% with men compared to 10% with women.

Suzanne Evans would have sorted that out.

You mean she'd have dragged men down to 10%?!

Anyway plenty of time for Suzanne Evans to make a difference and it won't be because she's a woman.

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:

Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)

I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.

I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.

Who will your no 1 and 2 be ?

Still torn between Andy and Jezza.

Has Andy even started his campaign yet ?

Admittedly my faith has been shaken by his lacklustre (and complacent) campaign, but I still think he's more likeable and will connect better with the public than Yvette (or than Ed Miliband), and I think he would have a decent shot of winning an election for Labour. So I'll go for him if I get cold feet on Jez.

valleyboy said:

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:

Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)

I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.

I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.

Who will your no 1 and 2 be ?

Still torn between Andy and Jezza.

Has Andy even started his campaign yet ?

Admittedly my faith has been shaken by his lacklustre (and complacent) campaign, but I still think he's more likeable and will connect better with the public than Yvette (or than Ed Miliband), and I think he would have a decent shot of winning an election for Labour. So I'll go for him if I get cold feet on Jez.

Yes he's likeable but I went to his hustings down here in West Wales a few weeks ago and he was lacklustre, so i have pretty well ruled him out as no 1, and i can't decide between Corbyn or Cooper!

tlg86 said:

@SeanT - I certainly think the left has found it difficult to come to terms with globalisation. Some on the Left seem to revel in the way Britain's status as a global power declined. Yet I think most people today consider Britain to be just another country - and as you rightly point out that means we have to compete like everyone else.

There are, however, a few clouds on the horizon for the Right. And I think the biggest one is housing. My parents bought their council house - and it was certainly a fantastic policy, at the time. Back then the pressure on housing was not so great and giving people the chance to own their home was an excellent idea. But today there are pressures on housing and, whether you think that's a supply or demand problem, if it becomes harder to get on to the property ladder then we will be creating a generation with less to lose.

It might be simplistic to suggest that people become more right wing as they get older, but home ownership and all the responsibilities that go with that certainly concentrate the mind. If there are more voters out there who don't care that much about economic stability, then the rules of elections could change.

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.

Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.

On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).

On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.


Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.

Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.

Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.

The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai

Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.

Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.

On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).

On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.


Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.

Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.

Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.

The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai

Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.

Yes, though it would be interesting if Corbyn becomes Labour leader and a social conservative succeeds Cameron

It's the whole reason behind Priti4leader

NickPalmer said:

valleyboy said:

Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post.
Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!

YossariansChild said:

So ive paid my 3 quid and will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn. Here's why: He is the only candidate who has policies, has principles. Do I agree with them all? Hell no. Yet I want more of his kind. We are finally moving away from the Clinton, Blair copy and paste platitudes of bullshit, faux sincerity and perpetuation of a self-serving elite who purport to be left-wing but value presentation over policy. Kick them out, ransack their intellectual abodes and bring the House down. Time to clean the Temples of the cult of Triangulation

Had a pensive email from a Broxtowe member tonight who is utterly undecided between all 4 candidates. He feels politically closest to Cooper and Burnham, but finds them both a little too skilled in avoiding awkward questions, too much like the popular image of professional politicians. He admires the sincerity and openness of Corbyn and Kendall, but doesn't really agree with either of them. What to do, he asks? I know a number of others who, like Valleyboy, are still hesitating. nearly always between Corbyn and Cooper.

Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier). Partly I'm just tired of fighting for the "less bad" alternative - let's have something worth the 16 hours a day that we put into this stuff. And partly I think that at this point it's important that he's not pipped at the post by someone with umpteen ABC transfers, giving a very weak mandate. The electorate is only really intrigued by one of the candidates and will feel baffled if we turn him down. Let's go for it.

NickPalmer said:

valleyboy said:

Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post.
Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!

YossariansChild said:

So ive paid my 3 quid and will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn. Here's why: He is the only candidate who has policies, has principles. Do I agree with them all? Hell no. Yet I want more of his kind. We are finally moving away from the Clinton, Blair copy and paste platitudes of bullshit, faux sincerity and perpetuation of a self-serving elite who purport to be left-wing but value presentation over policy. Kick them out, ransack their intellectual abodes and bring the House down. Time to clean the Temples of the cult of Triangulation

Had a pensive email from a Broxtowe member tonight who is utterly undecided between all 4 candidates. He feels politically closest to Cooper and Burnham, but finds them both a little too skilled in avoiding awkward questions, too much like the popular image of professional politicians. He admires the sincerity and openness of Corbyn and Kendall, but doesn't really agree with either of them. What to do, he asks? I know a number of others who, like Valleyboy, are still hesitating. nearly always between Corbyn and Cooper.

Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier). Partly I'm just tired of fighting for the "less bad" alternative - let's have something worth the 16 hours a day that we put into this stuff. And partly I think that at this point it's important that he's not pipped at the post by someone with umpteen ABC transfers, giving a very weak mandate. The electorate is only really intrigued by one of the candidates and will feel baffled if we turn him down. Let's go for it.

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.

Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.

On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).

On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.


Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.

Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.

Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.

The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai

Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.

Yes, though it would be interesting if Corbyn becomes Labour leader and a social conservative succeeds Cameron

It's the whole reason behind Priti4leader

john_zims said:

@NickPalmer

'Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier)'

From a Blair fan to a Corbyn fan,

Just following the crowd or a chameleon ?