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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election
Since the Conservatives somewhat unexpectedly won a majority in May most of the media attention has been focused on who the next Labour leader will be. But what about the Conservatives?
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We are spoilt
My instinct is that Cameron will be more tempted to take any EU-related criticism on the chin. But nevertheless he will step down before the election. He will will have been PM for 9 or so years, and LOTO for another five.
Stepping down isn't always about your chance of winning.
I think he will however be more confident in asserting "his candidate" for the succession.
It's this though.
He's been at the top table for over ten years, time to take a step back.
Plus I think it'll do wonders for any historical legacy, walking away on his own terms.
Some better news: my ability to comment during the day will now be curtailed.
Metaphor for the Labour Party?
The new annual labour leadership competition however offers great promise and whilst 2015 is a 'first effort' to iron out any wrinkles, I'm sure by 2016, the Labour Leader get me out of here show will be unmissable.....
There is a large part of the electorate Labour must win back who vote pragmatically for the party which offers them the best prospect of personal economic advancement. How will you win back these voters?
How will you convince the electorate that public spending and their taxes are secure with Labour and that we are the party of fiscal responsibility?
Immigration remains a significant national issue, particularly amongst socially conservative voters. How will you address concerns about the impact on services and provision, and about identity and belonging that are causing many of these voters to desert Labour?
Our welfare system has neither the trust nor the confidence of a majority of the electorate. There is a widespread belief that it gives to those who don’t deserve and abandons those who do. What approach to reform would you take?
Can you indicate how you might start a process of renewing the image, the practices and the politics of the party in order to reverse its growing cultural exclusivity and widen its appeal in the country?
http://labourlist.org/2015/08/five-questions-for-the-labour-leadership-candidates/
1) A huge victory for IN in the EU referendum, a loss and Dave's a gone, a close victory for IN, and who knows
2) How the Corbynite wing of the Tory Party, the Eurosceptics, deal with the result, whatever it is
She's got my vote sewn up and the vote of every other hormonal and perverted middle England gentleman, who watches and votes.
Talking to a lifelong Labour supporter today, he has his ballot pack and hasn't decided who to vote for. He is not going to vote Corbyn but doesn't know who he will support. And he is hoping that the result is a party that splits into two. Not quite sure I see the logic of that.
But of all my left-leaning friends, he is the only one not actively supporting Corbyn.
Cruddas - well this intervention is too little, too late. As each hour goes by, the more votes are being cast and the less influence anyone can have on things. I imagine that the majority of votes will be cast quickly - the zeal of the Corbyn converts will ensure that.
I hope he steps down/hands over to new leader with about 18 months to go. He's done more than most PMs and I can't see [m]any positive reasons to stay on. Going out on his own terms is much better than events beating you to it.
@politicshome: .@jeremycorbyn is 'barking up the wrong tree' in Scotland, says @AngusMacNeilSNP: http://t.co/2u9nZkHvVy http://t.co/ezdcZYRvb7
"New Labour" suddenly announced they have 200 MPs, leaving Old Labour with the unions...
But "New" would have no money and no members.
Islamophobic?
People who still wear hats?
As far as I'm concerned, just because he didn't want to leave us to leave the EU doesn't mean he couldn't govern triumphantly over the subsequently Independent UK.
https://twitter.com/iainmacwhirter/status/632173119147479040
He'll be a succesful PM and have departed on his own terms. That's very rare in politics.
Conservative MPs and Samantha Cameron are far bigger obstacles.
That way, all those second places would start looking like a success rather than a failure.
- Have you resigned yet
- You're a Blairite/incestuous cabal
- Daily Mail job application
- Confirmation bias [??]
- Corbyn is GRRREAT!
I quite like: Three letters. P. P. E.
Followed by an Oxon.
I also quite like various historic versions, Or more recently, The latter could by the Corbynista anthem.
There's a pretty well-known American parody called "The Foreman's Job" which I've always thought was quite funny, but also goes a long way to explaining why Americans don't "do" socialism, or at least not by that word. No idea where I first heard it but it must have been around for a while. (There is also an alternative version I'd not heard of before, replacing "the system.." line with "The working class can kiss my ass "You can tell old Joe I'm off the dole, He can stick the Red Flag up his 'ole" - but presumably that's an older - 40s? 50s? - version.)
That seems likely to reduce the monies available to Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11802502/Lord-Janner-in-court-LIVE.html
http://www.suttontrust.com/researcharchive/parliamentary-privilege-the-mps-2015/
Summary
•Almost a third (32%) of MPs in the new House of Commons was privately educated. This means that the new House is only a little more representative than that elected in 2010, when 35% of MPs had been to a fee-paying school.
• The research brief, Parliamentary Privilege – the MPs, shows that around half (48%) of Conservative MPs were privately educated, compared to 14% of Liberal Democrats, 5% of SNP MPs for whom we have data and 17% of Labour MPs. Among other MPs, 24% went to a fee-paying school. However, the proportion of privately educated Conservative MPs has fallen from 54% in the last parliament and 73% in 1979.
•With only 7% of the general population attending independent schools, MPs are over four times more likely to have gone to a fee-paying school than their constituents. Out of those MPs who were privately educated, almost one in ten went to Eton.
•The research draws on data compiled by the Sutton Trust and public affairs consultant Tim Carr from public sources, requests to candidates in marginal constituencies and those in seats where the previous MP was not standing again.
•Nine out of ten MPs are graduates. Of those who went to a UK university, 26% hold an Oxbridge degree and 28% went to another Russell Group university. Whilst the public might expect MPs to have good degrees, previous research by the Trust found that those from the richest fifth of neighbourhoods are still nine times more likely to go to the top universities than those from the poorest fifth.
He will potentially have a huge mandate from the membership - as long as he can form a Shadow Cabinet (which, of course, is no longer elected), he can drive the party in the direction he wants to take irrespective of what the MPs want.
Will certainly make key votes interesting to watch...
The effect of a less rigid approach by Labour will be more government victories in parliament.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11803090/Jeremy-Corbyn-could-undermine-Northern-Ireland-peace-process-if-he-becomes-Labour-leader-rival-claims.html
'Tory MP Zac Goldsmith, frontrunner in the group seeking the Conservative London mayoral nomination, has warned the “glee” of his party colleagues at the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour Party leader is “totally misplaced”. He said Corbyn could somehow capture the “zeitgeist” and ride the wave of support that confounded his critics, leading Britain into “very dangerous terrain”.'
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/632184338466119680
That caricature won't be true, of course, but it has enough truth to it.
Followed by an Oxon.
I also quite like various historic versions, Or more recently, The latter could by the Corbynista anthem.
There's a pretty well-known American parody called "The Foreman's Job" which I've always thought was quite funny, but also goes a long way to explaining why Americans don't "do" socialism, or at least not by that word. No idea where I first heard it but it must have been around for a while. (There is also an alternative version I'd not heard of before, replacing "the system.." line with "The working class can kiss my ass "You can tell old Joe I'm off the dole, He can stick the Red Flag up his 'ole" - but presumably that's an older - 40s? 50s? - version.)
There is also this version, courtesy of The Liberator Songbook, sometimes sung at the Lib Dem Glee Club:
The people's flag is slightly pink
It's not as red as most folk think
We must not let the people know
What socialists thought long ago.
Chorus:
Don't let the scarlet banner float
We want the middle classes vote
Let our old-fashioned comrades sneer
We'll stay in power for many a year.
Edit: Link http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/08/coups-splits-or-surprising-calm-what-jeremy-corbyn-era-would-look-labour
TBH, I'm not the teeniest bit interested in speculating about who'll take over from Cameron in 3+yrs.
Ho hum.
Interesting view on coup or not in that article
It is the only system guaranteed to lead to those on the right of the party being part of the ShadCab.
Whether that's "keep your enemies closer"/"pissing out the tent" or "stab in the back" territory might depend on the polls...
http://www.thenational.scot/comment/gordon-macintyre-kemp-would-scotland-now-be-independent-if-we-hadnt-had-oil.6344
He himself has said he doesn't enjoy the job, but it's a huge privilege and honour.
(And in any case, the grassroots will have something to say if rebel Labour MPs start making the difference between govt wins and defeats in Parliament.)
@kevverage: UK-wide pooling & sharing is demonstrably helping Scotland ... and this reinforces case for indy?
Man's an idiot. https://t.co/gEUsUU0O4p
I guess this will become commonplace for brits to so they can compete. Good old mass immigration, a benefit for us all
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/632189447782703105
Yes, it's the sort of job I was looking for, as an interim position.