Tories up a point on election, SNP unchanged. Tonight C4 news interviewed several young Scots at the Corbyn rally who said they may switch from SNP to a Corbyn-led Labour
what none of us know is how guileful Corbyn can be. His basic policies are likely to be an instant hit with the public. Even nationalizing the railways is popular and loudly protesting Osborne's cruelty to the poor while reducing IHT for the rich and looking authentic when doing it is sure to make him a hit.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour getting quite a boost in the polls. His problems might come down the line. If he's able to temper some of his wilder excesses and even appoint one or two right wingers to important positions (Cooper to the treasury?) then he might surprise us all.
Are you really falling for your own spin or are you just putting as good a gloss on the situation as you can?
This sort of populism could lead to a mild boost in the mid-term polls as Miliband's Labour got but without being credible it is never going to be election winning.
Corbyn is likely to do better in Scotland though and remember even Foot and IDS got a few poll leads
Scottish politics is not a simplistic matter of left or right. Scotland is its own mini universe now and it won't change until something dramatic happens like the SNP becomes dramatically unpopular, enters into coalition with the Tories (see previous remark) or there are other Scottish-only parties to compete with the SNP like the SDLP in Northern Ireland.
Simply being as left as Sturgeon on nuclear weapons and maybe a tad more left on economic issues is not enough.
It could be enough to get Labour to 30-35% in Scotland
The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory. Instead of facing up to this, we are getting lots of wishful thinking about how 1980s socialism, fantasy economics and sympathising with terrorists might not go down so badly with voters after all. Yeah, well, believe me, those sorts of thing will go down badly with voters, but that isn't the main danger for Labour: the danger is how badly they will go down with Labour MPs.
The guy isn't even in office yet, but already MPs and most of the senior figures are plotting to get rid of him - in public. Lord only knows what they are saying in private. How much worse will the in-fighting get before it gets better?
750+ jammed into the Old Fruitmarket in Glasgow to hear @jeremycorbyn give his 'Standing to Deliver' plan #JezWeCan
Jezza packs em in sends em home happy!
1000 actually.
If Corbyn starts doing rallies in stadiums he would have reached SNP levels.
I wonder if part of him, behind the elation at what appears to be happening, is also deeply deeply confused, and looking at these hundreds upon hundreds listening to him and thinking 'I've been saying this exact stuff for decades, where the hell were you lot all this time?'
what none of us know is how guileful Corbyn can be. His basic policies are likely to be an instant hit with the public. Even nationalizing the railways is popular and loudly protesting Osborne's cruelty to the poor while reducing IHT for the rich and looking authentic when doing it is sure to make him a hit.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour getting quite a boost in the polls. His problems might come down the line. If he's able to temper some of his wilder excesses and even appoint one or two right wingers to important positions (Cooper to the treasury?) then he might surprise us all.
Are you really falling for your own spin or are you just putting as good a gloss on the situation as you can?
This sort of populism could lead to a mild boost in the mid-term polls as Miliband's Labour got but without being credible it is never going to be election winning.
Corbyn is likely to do better in Scotland though and remember even Foot and IDS got a few poll leads
Scottish politics is not a simplistic matter of left or right. Scotland is its own mini universe now and it won't change until something dramatic happens like the SNP becomes dramatically unpopular, enters into coalition with the Tories (see previous remark) or there are other Scottish-only parties to compete with the SNP like the SDLP in Northern Ireland.
Simply being as left as Sturgeon on nuclear weapons and maybe a tad more left on economic issues is not enough.
It could be enough to get Labour to 30-35% in Scotland
Survation likelihood to vote with Corbyn per region, much more likely /much less likely:
The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory.
I'm enjoying the whistling in the dark from the people who thought Brown and Miliband were good almost as much as I'm relishing the prospect of Corbyn becoming Labour leader.
Southam appears to be the last Labour supporter on PB with his faculties intact.
The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory. Instead of facing up to this, we are getting lots of wishful thinking about how 1980s socialism, fantasy economics and sympathising with terrorists might not go down so badly with voters after all. Yeah, well, believe me, those sorts of thing will go down badly with voters, but that isn't the main danger for Labour: the danger is how badly they will go down with Labour MPs.
The guy isn't even in office yet, but already MPs and most of the senior figures are plotting to get rid of him - in public. Lord only knows what they are saying in private. How much worse will the in-fighting get before it gets better?
Quite so. Even if the party doesn't split under his leadership it will become horrifyingly mutinous, not least coz Corbyn himself disobeyed the Whip 500 times, appaz.
Ah, the Primrose Hill (borders) Intellectual speaks!
750+ jammed into the Old Fruitmarket in Glasgow to hear @jeremycorbyn give his 'Standing to Deliver' plan #JezWeCan
Jezza packs em in sends em home happy!
1000 actually.
If Corbyn starts doing rallies in stadiums he would have reached SNP levels.
I wonder if part of him, behind the elation at what appears to be happening, is also deeply deeply confused, and looking at these hundreds upon hundreds listening to him and thinking 'I've been saying this exact stuff for decades, where the hell were you lot all this time?'
Nah. He's addressed them all before, at rallies against this, rallies against that and rallies against the other. He has been saying the same thing to the same people in the same places for years. Decades. Labour made the mistake of actually giving him the chance to stand for leader and handed all these loony toons ballot papers as well. The whole point of the rules of course is that no one could stand if they did not have broad support of some kind in the PLP. It makes you think Gordon Brown knew what he was doing when he strong armed the party into nominating him and only him.
Still, I hope no one will ever laugh ever again at the idiots that the US presidential nomination process throws up.
Evening all. The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory. Instead of facing up to this, we are getting lots of wishful thinking about how 1980s socialism, fantasy economics and sympathising with terrorists might not go down so badly with voters after all. Yeah, well, believe me, those sorts of thing will go down badly with voters, but that isn't the main danger for Labour: the danger is how badly they will go down with Labour MPs. The guy isn't even in office yet, but already MPs and most of the senior figures are plotting to get rid of him - in public. Lord only knows what they are saying in private. How much worse will the in-fighting get before it gets better?
The biggest effect of Corbyn on Labour will be the rule changes he will push through. Thats why MPs are worried. The effect on the labour party will be to hand it over to the fruit loops. Quite how many political corpses will lie scattered in the ditches of Corbyns collectivisation policies will remain to be seen. BTW - I hope you will see i am quite egalitarian and even handed in my dismissals of fruit loops. Labour are in danger of being taken over by the loopies. At least the tories managed to quietly eject theirs and still regain office. When you look at labour now, you appreciate what a neat trick that was.
Trump is actually trying, in Iowa at least? Makes sense - more entertaining if he last a fair way into the campaign, so he'll need some actual positive results somewhere to sustain that?
Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory. Instead of facing up to this, we are getting lots of wishful thinking about how 1980s socialism, fantasy economics and sympathising with terrorists might not go down so badly with voters after all. Yeah, well, believe me, those sorts of thing will go down badly with voters, but that isn't the main danger for Labour: the danger is how badly they will go down with Labour MPs.
The guy isn't even in office yet, but already MPs and most of the senior figures are plotting to get rid of him - in public. Lord only knows what they are saying in private. How much worse will the in-fighting get before it gets better?
Is partly correct. It's always the right of the Labour Party that does most damage to the party - splitting like Ramsay MacDonald and the Gang of Four. I suspect though that most will grin and bear it like Denis Healey in 1981.
Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
I was watching the Last Leg and saw some of those Labour leadership videos. They are honestly hilarious.
#isitok that #lastleg is more effective than the official opposition?
Great at taking the mickey from jihadis too!
The Last Leg guys should be the official opposition tbh. #AdamHillsforPM
I've never heard of them - are they are a recent thing?
The show originally aired in 2012, alongside the Paralympics, but it was so popular the guys now have a regular series on Friday nights. So fairly recent, you could say.
Tories up a point on election, SNP unchanged. Tonight C4 news interviewed several young Scots at the Corbyn rally who said they may switch from SNP to a Corbyn-led Labour
Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
Who will your no 1 and 2 be ?
Still torn between Andy and Jezza.
Has Andy even started his campaign yet ?
Admittedly my faith has been shaken by his lacklustre (and complacent) campaign, but I still think he's more likeable and will connect better with the public than Yvette (or than Ed Miliband), and I think he would have a decent shot of winning an election for Labour. So I'll go for him if I get cold feet on Jez.
The movie "World War Z" posited the "tenth man": if all agree that something is certain, a tenth man is delegated to investigate the exact opposite[1]. Whilst not an original stance[2] it surely has merit, particularly after the polling debacle that led us all to ignore 10/1 odds on a Conservative majority.
With that in mind, let me list again[3] some assumptions that should be tenth-manned. They are:
* Jeremy Corbyn will not become Leader of the Labour Party (no longer assumed) * If he does, he will step down or be forced to step down before the 2020 election * He will be unpopular amongst the electorate * He will not win the 2020 election * David Cameron will argue for a "Yes" vote in the EU referendum * The EU referendum will be won by the "Yes" vote.
Those are widely-held assumptions but they are only assumptions: it's not impossible the opposite may occur and in each case there is some evidence that the opposite may occur.
Anyway plenty of time for Suzanne Evans to make a difference and it won't be because she's a woman.
Farage has a certain amount of baggage which makes him instantly offputting to a huge chunk of the electorate. Evans comes across as far more reasonable and is also fairly good with the media.
Tories up a point on election, SNP unchanged. Tonight C4 news interviewed several young Scots at the Corbyn rally who said they may switch from SNP to a Corbyn-led Labour
Wow, it's amazing how desperate you are.
Nothing desperate about it, I am just reporting the news report and interviews as they were
Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.
Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.
On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).
On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.
Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.
Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.
Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.
The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai
Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post. Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!
@SeanT - I certainly think the left has found it difficult to come to terms with globalisation. Some on the Left seem to revel in the way Britain's status as a global power declined. Yet I think most people today consider Britain to be just another country - and as you rightly point out that means we have to compete like everyone else.
There are, however, a few clouds on the horizon for the Right. And I think the biggest one is housing. My parents bought their council house - and it was certainly a fantastic policy, at the time. Back then the pressure on housing was not so great and giving people the chance to own their home was an excellent idea. But today there are pressures on housing and, whether you think that's a supply or demand problem, if it becomes harder to get on to the property ladder then we will be creating a generation with less to lose.
It might be simplistic to suggest that people become more right wing as they get older, but home ownership and all the responsibilities that go with that certainly concentrate the mind. If there are more voters out there who don't care that much about economic stability, then the rules of elections could change.
Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
Who will your no 1 and 2 be ?
Still torn between Andy and Jezza.
Has Andy even started his campaign yet ?
Admittedly my faith has been shaken by his lacklustre (and complacent) campaign, but I still think he's more likeable and will connect better with the public than Yvette (or than Ed Miliband), and I think he would have a decent shot of winning an election for Labour. So I'll go for him if I get cold feet on Jez.
Yes he's likeable but I went to his hustings down here in West Wales a few weeks ago and he was lacklustre, so i have pretty well ruled him out as no 1, and i can't decide between Corbyn or Cooper!
Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.
Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.
On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).
On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.
Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.
Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.
Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.
The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai
Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.
Saw Yvette Cooper tonight (my Friday nights are so wild...)
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
Who will your no 1 and 2 be ?
Still torn between Andy and Jezza.
Has Andy even started his campaign yet ?
Admittedly my faith has been shaken by his lacklustre (and complacent) campaign, but I still think he's more likeable and will connect better with the public than Yvette (or than Ed Miliband), and I think he would have a decent shot of winning an election for Labour. So I'll go for him if I get cold feet on Jez.
Yes he's likeable but I went to his hustings down here in West Wales a few weeks ago and he was lacklustre, so i have pretty well ruled him out as no 1, and i can't decide between Corbyn or Cooper!
@SeanT - I certainly think the left has found it difficult to come to terms with globalisation. Some on the Left seem to revel in the way Britain's status as a global power declined. Yet I think most people today consider Britain to be just another country - and as you rightly point out that means we have to compete like everyone else.
There are, however, a few clouds on the horizon for the Right. And I think the biggest one is housing. My parents bought their council house - and it was certainly a fantastic policy, at the time. Back then the pressure on housing was not so great and giving people the chance to own their home was an excellent idea. But today there are pressures on housing and, whether you think that's a supply or demand problem, if it becomes harder to get on to the property ladder then we will be creating a generation with less to lose.
It might be simplistic to suggest that people become more right wing as they get older, but home ownership and all the responsibilities that go with that certainly concentrate the mind. If there are more voters out there who don't care that much about economic stability, then the rules of elections could change.
By 2025 a majority of under 40s will be renting, certainly most people cannot afford to buy until they are married and have 2 incomes
Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.
Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.
On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).
On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.
Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.
Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.
Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.
The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai
Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.
Yes, though it would be interesting if Corbyn becomes Labour leader and a social conservative succeeds Cameron
Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.
Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.
On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).
On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.
Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.
Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.
Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.
The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai
Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.
Yes, though it would be interesting if Corbyn becomes Labour leader and a social conservative succeeds Cameron
Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.
Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.
On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).
On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.
Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.
Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.
Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.
The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai
Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.
Yes, though it would be interesting if Corbyn becomes Labour leader and a social conservative succeeds Cameron
Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post. Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!
So ive paid my 3 quid and will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn. Here's why: He is the only candidate who has policies, has principles. Do I agree with them all? Hell no. Yet I want more of his kind. We are finally moving away from the Clinton, Blair copy and paste platitudes of bullshit, faux sincerity and perpetuation of a self-serving elite who purport to be left-wing but value presentation over policy. Kick them out, ransack their intellectual abodes and bring the House down. Time to clean the Temples of the cult of Triangulation
Had a pensive email from a Broxtowe member tonight who is utterly undecided between all 4 candidates. He feels politically closest to Cooper and Burnham, but finds them both a little too skilled in avoiding awkward questions, too much like the popular image of professional politicians. He admires the sincerity and openness of Corbyn and Kendall, but doesn't really agree with either of them. What to do, he asks? I know a number of others who, like Valleyboy, are still hesitating. nearly always between Corbyn and Cooper.
Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier). Partly I'm just tired of fighting for the "less bad" alternative - let's have something worth the 16 hours a day that we put into this stuff. And partly I think that at this point it's important that he's not pipped at the post by someone with umpteen ABC transfers, giving a very weak mandate. The electorate is only really intrigued by one of the candidates and will feel baffled if we turn him down. Let's go for it.
Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post. Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!
So ive paid my 3 quid and will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn. Here's why: He is the only candidate who has policies, has principles. Do I agree with them all? Hell no. Yet I want more of his kind. We are finally moving away from the Clinton, Blair copy and paste platitudes of bullshit, faux sincerity and perpetuation of a self-serving elite who purport to be left-wing but value presentation over policy. Kick them out, ransack their intellectual abodes and bring the House down. Time to clean the Temples of the cult of Triangulation
Had a pensive email from a Broxtowe member tonight who is utterly undecided between all 4 candidates. He feels politically closest to Cooper and Burnham, but finds them both a little too skilled in avoiding awkward questions, too much like the popular image of professional politicians. He admires the sincerity and openness of Corbyn and Kendall, but doesn't really agree with either of them. What to do, he asks? I know a number of others who, like Valleyboy, are still hesitating. nearly always between Corbyn and Cooper.
Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier). Partly I'm just tired of fighting for the "less bad" alternative - let's have something worth the 16 hours a day that we put into this stuff. And partly I think that at this point it's important that he's not pipped at the post by someone with umpteen ABC transfers, giving a very weak mandate. The electorate is only really intrigued by one of the candidates and will feel baffled if we turn him down. Let's go for it.
Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post. Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!
Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post. Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!
So ive paid my 3 quid and will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn. Here's why: He is the only candidate who has policies, has principles. Do I agree with them all? Hell no. Yet I want more of his kind. We are finally moving away from the Clinton, Blair copy and paste platitudes of bullshit, faux sincerity and perpetuation of a self-serving elite who purport to be left-wing but value presentation over policy. Kick them out, ransack their intellectual abodes and bring the House down. Time to clean the Temples of the cult of Triangulation
Had a pensive email from a Broxtowe member tonight who is utterly undecided between all 4 candidates. He feels politically closest to Cooper and Burnham, but finds them both a little too skilled in avoiding awkward questions, too much like the popular image of professional politicians. He admires the sincerity and openness of Corbyn and Kendall, but doesn't really agree with either of them. What to do, he asks? I know a number of others who, like Valleyboy, are still hesitating. nearly always between Corbyn and Cooper.
Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier). Partly I'm just tired of fighting for the "less bad" alternative - let's have something worth the 16 hours a day that we put into this stuff. And partly I think that at this point it's important that he's not pipped at the post by someone with umpteen ABC transfers, giving a very weak mandate. The electorate is only really intrigued by one of the candidates and will feel baffled if we turn him down. Let's go for it.
In a choice between Corbyn and Cooper, you may as well go for Corbyn given Cooper generally polls last or next to last with the public
Just had email from Labour saying my ballot paper was in the post. Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!
Reading pb it strikes me how much more tranquil and united the Right is, as against the Left.
Broadly (with the significant but not critical exceptions of Europe and immigration) the Right in the UK now accepts a common agenda: it's all a question of degree. e.g. All rightwingers are patriots, monarchists, Atlanticists, anti-terrorists, Unionists, anti-Islamists. Practically without exception.
On social issues the Right now accepts much that the Left always wanted, from gay rights to gay marriage (and the Libertarian right is delighted).
On economic issues, all rightwingers are agreed: they want a smaller state, lower taxes, cuts in needless welfare, minimised government, privatisation of state services (where it helps). All want the government to step aside, wherever it is beneficial.
Happily for the Right, reality is pushing all western societies this way, anyway, as there ain't no competing with Asia, otherwise.
Contrast with the Left, which has capitulated on many issues but still wont accept defeat, despite abject defeat.
Contrast, again, with the Left, which suddenly wants to elect a leader from 40 years ago, as if that might negate the defeats of four long decades. It's like Liverpool installing the maggoty corpse of Bill Shankly as manager, in the hopes that might magically return them to the era of Kevin Keegan.
The right has largely won the economic war, the left the social war, but it is not complete, drugs still remain illegal, abortion is not unfettered and there is still support for higher taxes on the rich and rail renationalisation. Competition with Asia does mean we need to reform public services and welfare and make it more contributory, but not abandon them altogether. Indeed, while Asia is leading the globe in terms of economic growth it is by no means a laissez-faire nirvana, certainly outside of Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai
Pretty much this - Left has conceded economically (well, under Blair they did), and under Cameron the Right conceded on social issues.
Yes, though it would be interesting if Corbyn becomes Labour leader and a social conservative succeeds Cameron
It's the whole reason behind Priti4leader
Or Javid or Hammond or Fox, maybe even May on some issues
'Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier)'
From a Blair fan to a Corbyn fan,
Just following the crowd or a chameleon ?
Times have changed. Blair was right for 1997 and 2001. Corbyn's right for now.
People need someone they can believe in, someone who can make "they're all the same" a thing of the past.
If there was a less divisive candidate with Corbyn's authenticity and ability to energise, I'd be backing them. But what's on offer from AB, YC and LK is insipid and uninspiring. It has to be Corbyn.
Really, I'm not saying this because I backed him when his odds were long. It's appalling the way he's been treated by right-wingers in the party.
I acknowledge some of his positions are challenging (mainly on foreign policy; I think his economic ideas are just what we need right now), but the answer is to work with him and reach compromises, not hand the Tories ammunition to use against a potential democratically-elected leader. Mann and Danczuk, in particular, have behaved disgracefully.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11804288/Jeremy-Corbyn-accused-of-being-anti-semitic-as-Labour-grandees-round-on-hard-Left-leadership-frontrunner.html
Corbyn 3, 19, 8, 6, 23
Burhman 3, 15, 8, 5, 2
Cooper 1, 7, 8, 1, 0
Kendall 3, 6, 3, 3, 4
Much less likely
Corbyn 24, 5, 18, 18, 8
Burhman 14, 3, 5, 17, 11
Cooper 15, 8, 8, 20, 15
Kendall 13, 9, 4, 27, 14
Net:
Corbyn -21, +14, -10, -12, +15
Burhman -11,+12, +3, -12, -9
Cooper -14, -1, 0, -19, -15
Kendall -10, -3, -1, -24, -10
I've woken up in 1984 haven't I !
Great at taking the mickey from jihadis too!
The most striking them about all those Labour supporters, including some relatively sane ones, who are trying to convince themselves that maybe Corbyn won't be quite so mind-numbingly disastrous for Labour after all, is that they have completely missed the most significant point which is staring them in the face, namely the effect on the Labour Party of a Corbyn victory. Instead of facing up to this, we are getting lots of wishful thinking about how 1980s socialism, fantasy economics and sympathising with terrorists might not go down so badly with voters after all. Yeah, well, believe me, those sorts of thing will go down badly with voters, but that isn't the main danger for Labour: the danger is how badly they will go down with Labour MPs.
The guy isn't even in office yet, but already MPs and most of the senior figures are plotting to get rid of him - in public. Lord only knows what they are saying in private. How much worse will the in-fighting get before it gets better?
Burnham - Better 42% Worse 10% Neither 38%
Kendall - Better 33% Worse 16% Neither 41%
Cooper - Better 35% Worse 12% Neither 41%
Corbyn - Better 44% Worse 16% Neither 29%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Full-TSSA-Tables-1c0d0h7.pdf
Scotland: 9, 8
London: 10, 12
Midlands: 10, 16
North: 12, 12
South: 10, 15
Wales: 16, 22
Burnham:
Scotland: 10, 7
London: 2, 8
Midlands: 5, 12
North: 12, 9
South: 5, 9
Wales: 13, 11
Cooper:
Scotland: 2, 6
London: 4, 10
Midlands: 5, 12
North: 5, 11
South: 3, 13
Wales: 4, 24
Kendall:
Scotland: 6, 6
London: 6, 8
Midlands: 4, 17
North: 6, 12
South: 4, 11
Wales: 6, 25
Southam appears to be the last Labour supporter on PB with his faculties intact.
Labour made the mistake of actually giving him the chance to stand for leader and handed all these loony toons ballot papers as well. The whole point of the rules of course is that no one could stand if they did not have broad support of some kind in the PLP. It makes you think Gordon Brown knew what he was doing when he strong armed the party into nominating him and only him.
Still, I hope no one will ever laugh ever again at the idiots that the US presidential nomination process throws up.
2015 CON voting LAB: 0%
2015 LAB voting CON: 2.1%
2015 OTH voting CON 4.2%
2015 OTH voting LAB 14.6%
But it's not from scotland in this poll:
SNP 45
CON 25
LAB 22
LD 5
UKIP 1
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/an-iowa-surprise-donald-trump-is-actually-trying-to-win/2015/08/13/564a9f50-4142-11e5-8e7d-9c033e6745d8_story.html
Goodnight.
BTW - I hope you will see i am quite egalitarian and even handed in my dismissals of fruit loops. Labour are in danger of being taken over by the loopies. At least the tories managed to quietly eject theirs and still regain office. When you look at labour now, you appreciate what a neat trick that was.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/251172-trump-summoned-for-jury-duty
Can you imagine Trump being a juror in a trial?
I was very impressed with how passionate and rousing her speech was - she's much better in person than whenever I've seen her in the media. I was also heartened to hear say she would strongly oppose the scale of the Tory cuts and "Osborne's austerity ideology", rather than that rubbish all the mainstream candidates were spouting at the start of the campaign about basically surrendering the economic argument to the Tories.
I'll still probably only make her 3rd preference, but I wouldn't be unhappy with her as leader.
Nick Clegg was infamously on the Last Leg.
With that in mind, let me list again[3] some assumptions that should be tenth-manned. They are:
*
Jeremy Corbyn will not become Leader of the Labour Party(no longer assumed)* If he does, he will step down or be forced to step down before the 2020 election
* He will be unpopular amongst the electorate
* He will not win the 2020 election
* David Cameron will argue for a "Yes" vote in the EU referendum
* The EU referendum will be won by the "Yes" vote.
Those are widely-held assumptions but they are only assumptions: it's not impossible the opposite may occur and in each case there is some evidence that the opposite may occur.
Perhaps we should all bear that in mind...
Notes
[1] Apparently based on real life: see http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2007/10/intelligence kuperwasser/10_intelligence_kuperwasser.pdf
[2] Clarke's First Law
[3] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/734981/#Comment_734981
Anyway plenty of time for Suzanne Evans to make a difference and it won't be because she's a woman.
GE result (GB): Con 37.8, Lab 31.2
So Survation changes are actually:
Con +0.3, Lab +1.4
Karen Danczuk can't find any work...
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/08/karen-danczuk-struggles-to-find-work/
Will be waiting at the garden gate for the postman tomorrow. Cant wait to vote for....Corbyn or perhaps Cooper. Still haven't made up my mind!
There are, however, a few clouds on the horizon for the Right. And I think the biggest one is housing. My parents bought their council house - and it was certainly a fantastic policy, at the time. Back then the pressure on housing was not so great and giving people the chance to own their home was an excellent idea. But today there are pressures on housing and, whether you think that's a supply or demand problem, if it becomes harder to get on to the property ladder then we will be creating a generation with less to lose.
It might be simplistic to suggest that people become more right wing as they get older, but home ownership and all the responsibilities that go with that certainly concentrate the mind. If there are more voters out there who don't care that much about economic stability, then the rules of elections could change.
Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier). Partly I'm just tired of fighting for the "less bad" alternative - let's have something worth the 16 hours a day that we put into this stuff. And partly I think that at this point it's important that he's not pipped at the post by someone with umpteen ABC transfers, giving a very weak mandate. The electorate is only really intrigued by one of the candidates and will feel baffled if we turn him down. Let's go for it.
'Personally I've decided for Corbyn (after leaning to Cooper earlier)'
From a Blair fan to a Corbyn fan,
Just following the crowd or a chameleon ?
Good night all.
People need someone they can believe in, someone who can make "they're all the same" a thing of the past.
If there was a less divisive candidate with Corbyn's authenticity and ability to energise, I'd be backing them. But what's on offer from AB, YC and LK is insipid and uninspiring. It has to be Corbyn.
Really, I'm not saying this because I backed him when his odds were long. It's appalling the way he's been treated by right-wingers in the party.
I acknowledge some of his positions are challenging (mainly on foreign policy; I think his economic ideas are just what we need right now), but the answer is to work with him and reach compromises, not hand the Tories ammunition to use against a potential democratically-elected leader. Mann and Danczuk, in particular, have behaved disgracefully.