politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big swings to the SNP in the latest local by-elections: Ful
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big swings to the SNP in the latest local by-elections: Full results
Anderston and City (SNP defence), Calton (SNP defence), Craigton (SNP defence) and Langside (Green defence) on City of Glasgow
Anderston and City
Result:
Comments
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Wow, these were some of Labour's previously safest wards and they've been crushed.
Scottish Labour = Australia.0 -
More like Scottish Labour = Carthage after the second and third Punic wars.Pulpstar said:Wow, these were some of Labour's previously safest wards and they've been crushed.
Scottish Labour = Australia.0 -
What a catch - Aussies batting before lunch?0
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Scottish Labour = Australia Cricket?
Edit: Beat me to it Mr Pulpstar. Ali out for 38, Eng 390/90 -
Betfair have a market called "Australia Century? 2nd Innings", currently around evens. Not sure if that's for an individual batsman or for the whole team though!AndyJS said:Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.
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2017 looks like it could be rough for SLAB at the full local elections.0
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Thanks, Mr. Hayfield.
Just doing an interview with Marc Alpin of fantasy-faction.com (top site for fantasy readers, by the way). Mildly amused he asked me about advice to those thinking of self-publishing, given I released a guide to, er, self-publishing this morning
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That'll be for an individual, although I know the thought of the team failing to get one is amusing.Sandpit said:
Betfair have a market called "Australia Century? 2nd Innings", currently around evens. Not sure if that's for an individual batsman or for the whole team though!AndyJS said:Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.
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I think 2016 might be rougher than a badger's arse for SLABPulpstar said:2017 looks like it could be rough for SLAB at the full local elections.
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By way of comparison, the national first preference votes in 2012 were SNP 32.3% and Labour 31.4%. And we're seeing swings around the 19% mark.
Admittedly, this may reflect the very different shape of the SNP vote after the referendum, but still.0 -
I'm officially prepared to call it.
At the 2020 General election, the Tories will have more Scottish seats than Labour, the Tories might well achieve this without a single gain0 -
Wow re Batman = Peter John, leader of Southwark council and head of children’s policy for all London councils, has never met her or anyone from Kids Company in his five years in post.0
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More interesting market - how many Tory gains from SNP in 2020? And will they gain any of the pre-2015 seats?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm officially prepared to call it.
At the 2020 General election, the Tories will have more Scottish seats than Labour, the Tories might well achieve this without a single gain0 -
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk might be oneTissue_Price said:
More interesting market - how many Tory gains from SNP in 2020? And will they gain any of the pre-2015 seats?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm officially prepared to call it.
At the 2020 General election, the Tories will have more Scottish seats than Labour, the Tories might well achieve this without a single gain0 -
Cook declares.0
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Bit of an odd time to declare.0
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Cook calls them in for a couple of overs with the ball before lunch.0
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0
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Magnificent declaration. Essentially trolling Clarke.0
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Why not declare 8 down then - why send Finn out to bat at all ?! !0
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An excellent night for SNP – some of those swings will make Labour’s eyes water methinks.
@TSE. - I'm eating lunch, no more badger's arse puns for the next 10 mins pls
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Can sledge the Aussies by telling them it will all be over by lunch....Sandpit said:Cook calls them in for a couple of overs with the ball before lunch.
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This.
@steve_hawkes: Result of watching years of English sport? I'm nervous because our lead over the Aussies is 'just' 331 runs0 -
But we already know what will happen if Corbyn wins: it will be a disaster. I’ve been trying to think of another major party leader so far removed from the public’s perception of what it wants in a Prime Minister and the best I can do is Iain Duncan Smith if he had also managed to accidentally kill the entire cast of The Great British Bake Off.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/08/if-the-electorate-wont-change-its-mind-on-the-economy-labour-will-have-to-if-it-wants-to-win/0 -
On topic (while we wait for the Aussies to put their pads on!), the SLAB implosion is worrying in the context of the Holyrood elections next year. From all reports there are serious issues with Education and Policing in Scotland, yet who is providing opposition to the government and holding them to account in the eyes of the electorate?0
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By my calculations the current exchange rate is 1 Yorkshireman to 24 Australians.0
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People are missing something pretty important in these byelection results.
Look at the Greens numbers, they are edging towards second List seat territory (anything over 10% and they're at 8% here even with the drag of Calton).
Any more gain by the Greens and they can be in the battle for the main opposition in West Central Scotland.0 -
Mr. Dair, interesting observation. Not sure if I'll bet on the Holyrood elections but I'll try to keep Green figures in mind. How many seats do they currently have?0
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Not really, one of PB's most astute posters has already been flagging this up for agesDair said:People are missing something pretty important in these byelection results.
Look at the Greens numbers, they are edging towards second List seat territory (anything over 10% and they're at 8% here even with the drag of Calton).
Any more gain by the Greens and they can be in the battle for the main opposition in West Central Scotland.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/23/holyrood-2016-who-will-come-second/0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
By my calculations the current exchange rate is 1 Yorkshireman to 24 Australians.
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Amazingly enough, Labour have control of Glasgow City Council at the moment.
Doubt that'll last !0 -
Anyway, must be off.0
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Not only do we have a lead but an innings in hand.TheScreamingEagles said:This.
@steve_hawkes: Result of watching years of English sport? I'm nervous because our lead over the Aussies is 'just' 331 runs
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...and still several million Englishmen biting their nails!MikeSmithson said:
Not only do we have a lead but an innings in hand.TheScreamingEagles said:This.
@steve_hawkes: Result of watching years of English sport? I'm nervous because our lead over the Aussies is 'just' 331 runs0 -
Who cares? If the SNP are as bad as some say they are it'll all end in tears (hopefully after they've voted to leave the Union).Sandpit said:On topic (while we wait for the Aussies to put their pads on!), the SLAB implosion is worrying in the context of the Holyrood elections next year. From all reports there are serious issues with Education and Policing in Scotland, yet who is providing opposition to the government and holding them to account in the eyes of the electorate?
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Saving Glasgow City Council in 2012 was probably the worst thing that ever happened to SLAB. They genuinely felt it was a sign that they had turned a corner in their fight against the SNP surge and normalty would be restored by 2015.Pulpstar said:Amazingly enough, Labour have control of Glasgow City Council at the moment.
Doubt that'll last !
This was despite a slew of other councils falling to the SNP. None so blind as a SLABber praying for a future.0 -
Broad is going to enjoy his lunch.
Aussies? Not much of an appetite.....0 -
Stuart Broad still on form, but the batsmen make it through to lunch.0
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Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.0
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Here's a question.
If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...0 -
Still think it will be Cooper.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.rottenborough said:
Still think it will be Cooper.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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"Call it" or "I'm calling it" is this decade's version of "110%", insofar as it triggers my pedant gene. You cannot enforce any future outcome and so cannot "call" anything. Similarly, unless you are genuinely speaking in your capacity ex officio, you are not "officially" anything. What you meant to say was "I'm prepared to predict it", or even (should you wish brevity), "I predict that".TheScreamingEagles said:I'm officially prepared to call it.
I will now slink away to Der Pedantbuenker and return to my cocoon. Please feel free to despise my fits of unsolicited precision.
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Agree. I just can't envisage Burnham standing at the despatch box as leader of the opposition.rottenborough said:
Still think it will be Cooper.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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Those with tickets for day 4 would think of that as a brilliant idea. Everyone else, not so much.Pulpstar said:Here's a question.
If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...
The idea of the follow on is to get a result rather than a draw in an obviously one-sided match, the idea that England may bat again would surely result in them getting 150 more then declaring again at tea.
If Broad carries on bowling like he did in the last over before lunch, England will want to be drinking the champagne before tea today!0 -
Harriet Harman is going to personally check new members for left wing or Tory views though and bar them. She'll then shred all votes with Corbyn 1st pref.antifrank said:
As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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Doubt we will see much change now, unless people in the know during the postal voting start to whisper. Or something spectacular happens.Tissue_Price said:
So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.rottenborough said:
Still think it will be Cooper.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).
If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.
The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.0 -
Likewise. I just don't get it.AndyJS said:
Agree. I just can't envisage Burnham standing at the despatch box as leader of the opposition.rottenborough said:
Still think it will be Cooper.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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Keep an eye on that Atal guy's Labour list postings. His prognostications on postal votings at the last GE were somewhat accurate (Except Scotlandrottenborough said:
Doubt we will see much change now, unless people in the know during the postal voting start to whisper. Or something spectacular happens.Tissue_Price said:
So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.rottenborough said:
Still think it will be Cooper.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
) 0 -
It would be a bit harsh to be able to make the opposition bowlers have to bowl again.Pulpstar said:Here's a question.
If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...0 -
Does anyone know which of the Scottish local elections next year are for full councils? I imagine that on the back of these by-election results, local Govt. will follow Holyrood into becoming a one-party state?Dair said:
Saving Glasgow City Council in 2012 was probably the worst thing that ever happened to SLAB. They genuinely felt it was a sign that they had turned a corner in their fight against the SNP surge and normalty would be restored by 2015.Pulpstar said:Amazingly enough, Labour have control of Glasgow City Council at the moment.
Doubt that'll last !
This was despite a slew of other councils falling to the SNP. None so blind as a SLABber praying for a future.0 -
For what its worth I first tipped the Greens possibly finishing 2nd back in December 2014 and you guys all had a good laugh !!TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, one of PB's most astute posters has already been flagging this up for agesDair said:People are missing something pretty important in these byelection results.
Look at the Greens numbers, they are edging towards second List seat territory (anything over 10% and they're at 8% here even with the drag of Calton).
Any more gain by the Greens and they can be in the battle for the main opposition in West Central Scotland.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/23/holyrood-2016-who-will-come-second/
I think SLAB will scrape home in 2nd - the Greens and Tories is starting to look interesting - particularly as the Tories have given up on Glasgow and Ruth D needs to be at the top of the Lothian list to be sure of a seat. I fear for the LibDems who seem to be intent on self destruction.0 -
The YouGov had him on 50% in the post-election joiners group compared to 43% overall. Though you might suppose the more recent joiners were more pro-Corbyn than that - plenty of the post-election joiners were before Corbyn's candidacy.antifrank said:
As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?DavidL said:
I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).
If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.
The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.0 -
There'll be polling. Whether or not we see it, it will move the prices one way or another.rottenborough said:
Doubt we will see much change now, unless people in the know during the postal voting start to whisper. Or something spectacular happens.Tissue_Price said:
So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.rottenborough said:
Still think it will be Cooper.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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It is also not conducive to ticket sales.....tlg86 said:
It would be a bit harsh to be able to make the opposition bowlers have to bowl again.Pulpstar said:Here's a question.
If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...0 -
I assure you I didn't! Would Corbyn persuade some of the Greenies back to Labour or is independence the fundamental driver of their vote?calum said:For what its worth I tipped the Greens finishing 2nd back in December 2014 and you guys all had a good laugh !!
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I do suppose that and I'm struggling to think of a reason why more recent joiners would have joined that doesn't revolve around Jeremy Corbyn. I accept that some may have joined to vote against him but I'm willing to bet they're a minority.Tissue_Price said:
The YouGov had him on 50% in the post-election joiners group compared to 43% overall. Though you might suppose the more recent joiners were more pro-Corbyn than that - plenty of the post-election joiners were before Corbyn's candidacy.antifrank said:
As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.Tissue_Price said:Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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It's unlikely Corbyn will get much back from either the SNP or the Greens, the die is cast and without a firm commitment to Independence which he won't give, Labour will fade away regardless of leader.Tissue_Price said:
I assure you I didn't! Would Corbyn persuade some of the Greenies back to Labour or is independence the fundamental driver of their vote?calum said:For what its worth I tipped the Greens finishing 2nd back in December 2014 and you guys all had a good laugh !!
Their time has passed, they are an ex-party.
Having said that, the Libs will be extinct before them.0 -
Tissue_Price: thanks for the offer but I've decided Australia can't be so bad that they won't get 60 again.0
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No worries. Though you can have 100/1 now that they are 14/0 ;-)AndyJS said:Tissue_Price: thanks for the offer but I've decided Australia can't be so bad that they won't get 60 again.
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There are currently 15 Tories, 3 of which are constituency based. There are 38 Labour but 15 of these are constituency MSPs and most, possibly all, of these are going to lose. This will strengthen Labour a bit on the lists so it is still quite a big ask but SLAB are in a dark and miserable place.Plato said:What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?
DavidL said:I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).
If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.
The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.0 -
@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.0 -
Am all green too (Except Liz) but my win on Corbyn and Yvette is considerably bigger than Andy who is a v small win now.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.0 -
DavidL said:
There are currently 15 Tories, 3 of which are constituency based. There are 38 Labour but 15 of these are constituency MSPs and most, possibly all, of these are going to lose. This will strengthen Labour a bit on the lists so it is still quite a big ask but SLAB are in a dark and miserable place.Plato said:What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?
DavidL said:I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).
If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.
The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.0 -
Can you imagine the reaction of left-wingers if Liz did win? It would be hilarious.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.0 -
Howzat
Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'
Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG0 -
There's huge gaps between back and lay on betfair's GOP betting for some of the more unlikely candidates.0
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You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.0 -
Surely you should be virulent on LizTissue_Price said:
You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.0 -
Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:
SNP - 1881
LAB - 1396
CON - 349
GRN - 127
CHR - 77
UKIP - 43
LDEM - 32
PIRA - 120 -
Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronymMax_Edinburgh said:
Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:
SNP - 1881
LAB - 1396
CON - 349
GRN - 127
CHR - 77
UKIP - 43
LDEM - 32
PIRA - 120 -
I think it the probabilities look like:Tissue_Price said:
You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.
JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
YC on transfers (30%)
AB on transfers (20%)
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My position isn't quite what I want because I was on holiday last week and as a result was caught out by the shortening of Corbyn's odds a few days ago.Tissue_Price said:You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
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Pirate Party most likely.Plato said:Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronym
Max_Edinburgh said:Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:
SNP - 1881
LAB - 1396
CON - 349
GRN - 127
CHR - 77
UKIP - 43
LDEM - 32
PIRA - 120 -
The Pirate Party - I didn't come up with the acronym!Plato said:Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronym
Max_Edinburgh said:Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:
SNP - 1881
LAB - 1396
CON - 349
GRN - 127
CHR - 77
UKIP - 43
LDEM - 32
PIRA - 120 -
This is a very interesting article in the Spectator, revealing how most of the mainstream media would not touch the Kids Company story:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/milesgoslett/2015/08/the-inside-story-of-how-the-spectator-broke-the-kids-company-scandal/
As on the child abuse revelations, it becomes increasingly clear that the top politicians, journalists, business executives and charity leaders all operate in an elite London bubble, and no-one wants to do anything to burn bridges in dinner party circles. It's the reason why, time and time again, the more compelling arguments and critiques come from the radical right.
The intervention of the BBC's Alan Yentob, part of an organisation that should be scrutinising public figures, lobbying on behalf of them to friends in government is a classic case. It also explains how the BBC have focused on the negative effects of closing Kids Company down in most of their news bulletins.0 -
The liquidity is still very poor. Went to bed before the main debate, woke up this morning, just £2000 had changed hands...rottenborough said:There's huge gaps between back and lay on betfair's GOP betting for some of the more unlikely candidates.
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Yes, I think that's a reasonable guesstimate.TheWhiteRabbit said:I think it the probabilities look like:
JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
YC on transfers (30%)
AB on transfers (20%)0 -
Thanx
Max_Edinburgh said:
The Pirate Party - I didn't come up with the acronym!Plato said:Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronym
Max_Edinburgh said:Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:
SNP - 1881
LAB - 1396
CON - 349
GRN - 127
CHR - 77
UKIP - 43
LDEM - 32
PIRA - 120 -
15 MSPsPlato said:What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?
DavidL said:I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).
If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.
The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.
115 local councillors
(therefore, not quite Panda territory!)0 -
Yes, I'm about to go on holiday to Germany, which is very Betfair-unfriendly IIRC. So I might have to just see where I am next weekend, after all the Corbyn "exposés".Richard_Nabavi said:
My position isn't quite what I want because I was on holiday last week and as a result was caught out by the shortening of Corbyn's odds last week.Tissue_Price said:You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
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Technically the Pirate Candidate (Not convinced by the PIRA acronym, more usually I've seen PRTE) got 13 votes not 12.Max_Edinburgh said:Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:
SNP - 1881
LAB - 1396
CON - 349
GRN - 127
CHR - 77
UKIP - 43
LDEM - 32
PIRA - 12
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For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.Plato said:Howzat
Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'
Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG0 -
The only thing wrong with the Aussie score was it was not 87. Maybe they will get that in the 2nd innings.AndyJS said:Tissue_Price: thanks for the offer but I've decided Australia can't be so bad that they won't get 60 again.
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Good moaning! I brung you a massage: The Loobour Party loadership contest is hitting up! Jeremy Carbine seems to be the early foovourite over Andy Barnham, Yvette Keeper and Liz Candle.Plato said:Surely you should be virulent on Liz
Tissue_Price said:
You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.0 -
In that case all the right wingers have paid their £3 to vote for the wrong candidate...JEO said:
Can you imagine the reaction of left-wingers if Liz did win? It would be hilarious.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.
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For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.DecrepitJohnL said:Plato said:Howzat
Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'
Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG
The BBC have plenty of money. They simply choose to prioritise spending on pointless building moves, ill fated technical projects, executive salaries and part time Creative Directors rather than actual programming.0 -
On topic, I've done a bit of number-crunching. The swing in Glasgow was disproportionate from the 2012 local elections to the 2015 general election as compared with the rest of Scotland, and there was an 19% swing from the SNP to Labour over that period (obviously these are on different turnout levels, so it's not a safe comparison). Nevertheless, the SNP seem to have done even better than the May results in the local elections in Glasgow, given the swings noted above.0
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I don't think I'd have JC quite so strong in the first round but I do agree that he should be marginally odds-on overall. Although he's likely to do quite poorly on transfers relative to Burnham or Cooper, he will benefit significantly from non-transferable votes reducing the barrier for victory from 50% of all votes cast in the first round to around 46-47 by the end.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I think it the probabilities look like:Tissue_Price said:
You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.
JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
YC on transfers (30%)
AB on transfers (20%)0 -
For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.DecrepitJohnL said:Plato said:Howzat
Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'
Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG
The BBC has a guaranteed income of more than £3bn per annum. It may be short of lots of things but one of them isn't money.0 -
The BBC have plenty of money. They simply choose to prioritise spending on pointless building moves, ill fated technical projects, executive salaries and part time Creative Directors rather than actual programming.watford30 said:
For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.DecrepitJohnL said:Plato said:Howzat
Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'
Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG
Isn't the BBC income something like £5bn ??0 -
In the private sector I think heads would be rolling left, right and centre - hopefully the FOIs are flying into the Cabinet Office - brutal analysis here:
http://www.capx.co/why-camila-batmanghelidjh-had-access-to-a-prime-ministerial-slush-fund/
" There are many lessons that need to be absorbed in the aftermath of this Kids Company debacle. One surely is that the essential services, provided to our most vulnerable kids in the country should not become dependent on charismatic charity founders seeking support from Prime Ministerial slush funds. Secondly, it is preposterous to have a dedicated department making grant payments to individual charities delivering services that cut right across the work of other government departments. "0 -
Yes. The 25% for Corbyn is assuming he has a fairly small deficit to make up. But he will get some Burnham transfers, if Burnham is not in the top two.david_herdson said:
I don't think I'd have JC quite so strong in the first round but I do agree that he should be marginally odds-on overall. Although he's likely to do quite poorly on transfers relative to Burnham or Cooper, he will benefit significantly from non-transferable votes reducing the barrier for victory from 50% of all votes cast in the first round to around 46-47 by the end.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I think it the probabilities look like:Tissue_Price said:
You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.Richard_Nabavi said:@HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.
It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.
In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.
JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
YC on transfers (30%)
AB on transfers (20%)
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Cook shells one from Warner.0
