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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big swings to the SNP in the latest local by-elections: Ful

SystemSystem Posts: 11,687
edited August 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big swings to the SNP in the latest local by-elections: Full results

Anderston and City (SNP defence), Calton (SNP defence), Craigton (SNP defence) and Langside (Green defence) on City of Glasgow
Anderston and City
Result:

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Wow, these were some of Labour's previously safest wards and they've been crushed.

    Scottish Labour = Australia.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Wow, these were some of Labour's previously safest wards and they've been crushed.

    Scottish Labour = Australia.

    More like Scottish Labour = Carthage after the second and third Punic wars.
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    What a catch - Aussies batting before lunch?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited August 2015
    Scottish Labour = Australia Cricket?

    Edit: Beat me to it Mr Pulpstar. Ali out for 38, Eng 390/9
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    AndyJS said:

    Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.

    Betfair have a market called "Australia Century? 2nd Innings", currently around evens. Not sure if that's for an individual batsman or for the whole team though!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    2017 looks like it could be rough for SLAB at the full local elections.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Thanks, Mr. Hayfield.

    Just doing an interview with Marc Alpin of fantasy-faction.com (top site for fantasy readers, by the way). Mildly amused he asked me about advice to those thinking of self-publishing, given I released a guide to, er, self-publishing this morning :p
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2015
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Placing a bet on Australia getting less than 60 in their second innings might be an interesting idea. Their confidence levels must be at rock bottom.

    Betfair have a market called "Australia Century? 2nd Innings", currently around evens. Not sure if that's for an individual batsman or for the whole team though!
    That'll be for an individual, although I know the thought of the team failing to get one is amusing.
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    Pulpstar said:

    2017 looks like it could be rough for SLAB at the full local elections.

    I think 2016 might be rougher than a badger's arse for SLAB
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    By way of comparison, the national first preference votes in 2012 were SNP 32.3% and Labour 31.4%. And we're seeing swings around the 19% mark.

    Admittedly, this may reflect the very different shape of the SNP vote after the referendum, but still.
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    I'm officially prepared to call it.

    At the 2020 General election, the Tories will have more Scottish seats than Labour, the Tories might well achieve this without a single gain
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Wow re Batman = Peter John, leader of Southwark council and head of children’s policy for all London councils, has never met her or anyone from Kids Company in his five years in post.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I'm officially prepared to call it.

    At the 2020 General election, the Tories will have more Scottish seats than Labour, the Tories might well achieve this without a single gain

    More interesting market - how many Tory gains from SNP in 2020? And will they gain any of the pre-2015 seats?
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    I'm officially prepared to call it.

    At the 2020 General election, the Tories will have more Scottish seats than Labour, the Tories might well achieve this without a single gain

    More interesting market - how many Tory gains from SNP in 2020? And will they gain any of the pre-2015 seats?
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk might be one
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cook declares.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Bit of an odd time to declare.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Cook calls them in for a couple of overs with the ball before lunch.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Bit of an odd time to declare.

    They have to face two overs before lunch.

    Awkward
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Bit of an odd time to declare.

    Two overs for Australia before lunch will be awkward.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Magnificent declaration. Essentially trolling Clarke.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Why not declare 8 down then - why send Finn out to bat at all ?! !
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    An excellent night for SNP – some of those swings will make Labour’s eyes water methinks.


    @TSE. - I'm eating lunch, no more badger's arse puns for the next 10 mins pls :lol:
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Sandpit said:

    Cook calls them in for a couple of overs with the ball before lunch.

    Can sledge the Aussies by telling them it will all be over by lunch....
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    This.

    @steve_hawkes: Result of watching years of English sport? I'm nervous because our lead over the Aussies is 'just' 331 runs
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    But we already know what will happen if Corbyn wins: it will be a disaster. I’ve been trying to think of another major party leader so far removed from the public’s perception of what it wants in a Prime Minister and the best I can do is Iain Duncan Smith if he had also managed to accidentally kill the entire cast of The Great British Bake Off.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/08/if-the-electorate-wont-change-its-mind-on-the-economy-labour-will-have-to-if-it-wants-to-win/
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    On topic (while we wait for the Aussies to put their pads on!), the SLAB implosion is worrying in the context of the Holyrood elections next year. From all reports there are serious issues with Education and Policing in Scotland, yet who is providing opposition to the government and holding them to account in the eyes of the electorate?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    By my calculations the current exchange rate is 1 Yorkshireman to 24 Australians.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    People are missing something pretty important in these byelection results.

    Look at the Greens numbers, they are edging towards second List seat territory (anything over 10% and they're at 8% here even with the drag of Calton).

    Any more gain by the Greens and they can be in the battle for the main opposition in West Central Scotland.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Dair, interesting observation. Not sure if I'll bet on the Holyrood elections but I'll try to keep Green figures in mind. How many seats do they currently have?
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    Dair said:

    People are missing something pretty important in these byelection results.

    Look at the Greens numbers, they are edging towards second List seat territory (anything over 10% and they're at 8% here even with the drag of Calton).

    Any more gain by the Greens and they can be in the battle for the main opposition in West Central Scotland.

    Not really, one of PB's most astute posters has already been flagging this up for ages

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/23/holyrood-2016-who-will-come-second/
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :lol:

    By my calculations the current exchange rate is 1 Yorkshireman to 24 Australians.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Amazingly enough, Labour have control of Glasgow City Council at the moment.

    Doubt that'll last !
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Anyway, must be off.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Who's SLAB leader? Is there one?
    Pulpstar said:

    Amazingly enough, Labour have control of Glasgow City Council at the moment.

    Doubt that'll last !

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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    This.

    @steve_hawkes: Result of watching years of English sport? I'm nervous because our lead over the Aussies is 'just' 331 runs

    Not only do we have a lead but an innings in hand.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    This.

    @steve_hawkes: Result of watching years of English sport? I'm nervous because our lead over the Aussies is 'just' 331 runs

    Not only do we have a lead but an innings in hand.
    ...and still several million Englishmen biting their nails!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Sandpit said:

    On topic (while we wait for the Aussies to put their pads on!), the SLAB implosion is worrying in the context of the Holyrood elections next year. From all reports there are serious issues with Education and Policing in Scotland, yet who is providing opposition to the government and holding them to account in the eyes of the electorate?

    Who cares? If the SNP are as bad as some say they are it'll all end in tears (hopefully after they've voted to leave the Union).
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Amazingly enough, Labour have control of Glasgow City Council at the moment.

    Doubt that'll last !

    Saving Glasgow City Council in 2012 was probably the worst thing that ever happened to SLAB. They genuinely felt it was a sign that they had turned a corner in their fight against the SNP surge and normalty would be restored by 2015.

    This was despite a slew of other councils falling to the SNP. None so blind as a SLABber praying for a future.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Why not declare 8 down then - why send Finn out to bat at all ?! !

    To confuse the Aussies into thinking they wouldn't declare before lunch. Mind games.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Broad is going to enjoy his lunch.

    Aussies? Not much of an appetite.....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Stuart Broad still on form, but the batsmen make it through to lunch.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Here's a question.

    If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    Still think it will be Cooper.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited August 2015

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    Still think it will be Cooper.
    So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,819

    I'm officially prepared to call it.

    "Call it" or "I'm calling it" is this decade's version of "110%", insofar as it triggers my pedant gene. You cannot enforce any future outcome and so cannot "call" anything. Similarly, unless you are genuinely speaking in your capacity ex officio, you are not "officially" anything. What you meant to say was "I'm prepared to predict it", or even (should you wish brevity), "I predict that".

    I will now slink away to Der Pedantbuenker and return to my cocoon. Please feel free to despise my fits of unsolicited precision.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    Still think it will be Cooper.
    Agree. I just can't envisage Burnham standing at the despatch box as leader of the opposition.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a question.

    If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...

    Those with tickets for day 4 would think of that as a brilliant idea. Everyone else, not so much.

    The idea of the follow on is to get a result rather than a draw in an obviously one-sided match, the idea that England may bat again would surely result in them getting 150 more then declaring again at tea.

    If Broad carries on bowling like he did in the last over before lunch, England will want to be drinking the champagne before tea today!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    antifrank said:

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.
    Harriet Harman is going to personally check new members for left wing or Tory views though and bar them. She'll then shred all votes with Corbyn 1st pref.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    Still think it will be Cooper.
    So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.
    Doubt we will see much change now, unless people in the know during the postal voting start to whisper. Or something spectacular happens.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).

    If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.

    The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    AndyJS said:

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    Still think it will be Cooper.
    Agree. I just can't envisage Burnham standing at the despatch box as leader of the opposition.
    Likewise. I just don't get it.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    Still think it will be Cooper.
    So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.
    Doubt we will see much change now, unless people in the know during the postal voting start to whisper. Or something spectacular happens.
    Keep an eye on that Atal guy's Labour list postings. His prognostications on postal votings at the last GE were somewhat accurate (Except Scotland ;) )
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a question.

    If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...

    It would be a bit harsh to be able to make the opposition bowlers have to bowl again.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Amazingly enough, Labour have control of Glasgow City Council at the moment.

    Doubt that'll last !

    Saving Glasgow City Council in 2012 was probably the worst thing that ever happened to SLAB. They genuinely felt it was a sign that they had turned a corner in their fight against the SNP surge and normalty would be restored by 2015.

    This was despite a slew of other councils falling to the SNP. None so blind as a SLABber praying for a future.
    Does anyone know which of the Scottish local elections next year are for full councils? I imagine that on the back of these by-election results, local Govt. will follow Holyrood into becoming a one-party state?
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited August 2015

    Dair said:

    People are missing something pretty important in these byelection results.

    Look at the Greens numbers, they are edging towards second List seat territory (anything over 10% and they're at 8% here even with the drag of Calton).

    Any more gain by the Greens and they can be in the battle for the main opposition in West Central Scotland.

    Not really, one of PB's most astute posters has already been flagging this up for ages

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/23/holyrood-2016-who-will-come-second/
    For what its worth I first tipped the Greens possibly finishing 2nd back in December 2014 and you guys all had a good laugh !!

    I think SLAB will scrape home in 2nd - the Greens and Tories is starting to look interesting - particularly as the Tories have given up on Glasgow and Ruth D needs to be at the top of the Lothian list to be sure of a seat. I fear for the LibDems who seem to be intent on self destruction.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.
    The YouGov had him on 50% in the post-election joiners group compared to 43% overall. Though you might suppose the more recent joiners were more pro-Corbyn than that - plenty of the post-election joiners were before Corbyn's candidacy.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?
    DavidL said:

    I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).

    If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.

    The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.

  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited August 2015

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    Still think it will be Cooper.
    So do I. Wish she'd shorten though so I can square up a bit.
    Doubt we will see much change now, unless people in the know during the postal voting start to whisper. Or something spectacular happens.
    There'll be polling. Whether or not we see it, it will move the prices one way or another.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Here's a question.

    If England had had the option to bat 3rd innings, would we have taken it. With the follow on not being enforced so much these days, perhaps the team batting 2nd should get a sort of reverse option with a lead over 200...

    It would be a bit harsh to be able to make the opposition bowlers have to bowl again.
    It is also not conducive to ticket sales.....
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    calum said:

    For what its worth I tipped the Greens finishing 2nd back in December 2014 and you guys all had a good laugh !!

    I assure you I didn't! Would Corbyn persuade some of the Greenies back to Labour or is independence the fundamental driver of their vote?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Burnham slowly drifting - 2.56-2.58 now. Looks a false favourite to me.

    As @HenryGManson said this morning, Jeremy Corbyn should be odds-on now. The influx of new members can only be good for him.
    The YouGov had him on 50% in the post-election joiners group compared to 43% overall. Though you might suppose the more recent joiners were more pro-Corbyn than that - plenty of the post-election joiners were before Corbyn's candidacy.
    I do suppose that and I'm struggling to think of a reason why more recent joiners would have joined that doesn't revolve around Jeremy Corbyn. I accept that some may have joined to vote against him but I'm willing to bet they're a minority.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited August 2015

    calum said:

    For what its worth I tipped the Greens finishing 2nd back in December 2014 and you guys all had a good laugh !!

    I assure you I didn't! Would Corbyn persuade some of the Greenies back to Labour or is independence the fundamental driver of their vote?
    It's unlikely Corbyn will get much back from either the SNP or the Greens, the die is cast and without a firm commitment to Independence which he won't give, Labour will fade away regardless of leader.

    Their time has passed, they are an ex-party.

    Having said that, the Libs will be extinct before them.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tissue_Price: thanks for the offer but I've decided Australia can't be so bad that they won't get 60 again.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Tissue_Price: thanks for the offer but I've decided Australia can't be so bad that they won't get 60 again.

    No worries. Though you can have 100/1 now that they are 14/0 ;-)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    Plato said:

    What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).

    If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.

    The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.

    There are currently 15 Tories, 3 of which are constituency based. There are 38 Labour but 15 of these are constituency MSPs and most, possibly all, of these are going to lose. This will strengthen Labour a bit on the lists so it is still quite a big ask but SLAB are in a dark and miserable place.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    Am all green too (Except Liz) but my win on Corbyn and Yvette is considerably bigger than Andy who is a v small win now.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :open_mouth::open_mouth::open_mouth:
    DavidL said:

    Plato said:

    What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).

    If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.

    The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.

    There are currently 15 Tories, 3 of which are constituency based. There are 38 Labour but 15 of these are constituency MSPs and most, possibly all, of these are going to lose. This will strengthen Labour a bit on the lists so it is still quite a big ask but SLAB are in a dark and miserable place.
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    Can you imagine the reaction of left-wingers if Liz did win? It would be hilarious.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited August 2015
    Howzat
    Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'

    Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
    Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
    It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    There's huge gaps between back and lay on betfair's GOP betting for some of the more unlikely candidates.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Surely you should be virulent on Liz :wink:

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
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    Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:

    SNP - 1881
    LAB - 1396
    CON - 349
    GRN - 127
    CHR - 77
    UKIP - 43
    LDEM - 32
    PIRA - 12
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronym

    Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:

    SNP - 1881
    LAB - 1396
    CON - 349
    GRN - 127
    CHR - 77
    UKIP - 43
    LDEM - 32
    PIRA - 12

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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
    I think it the probabilities look like:
    JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
    YC on transfers (30%)
    AB on transfers (20%)

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2015

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.

    My position isn't quite what I want because I was on holiday last week and as a result was caught out by the shortening of Corbyn's odds a few days ago.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Plato said:

    Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronym

    Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:

    SNP - 1881
    LAB - 1396
    CON - 349
    GRN - 127
    CHR - 77
    UKIP - 43
    LDEM - 32
    PIRA - 12

    Pirate Party most likely.
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    Plato said:

    Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronym

    Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:

    SNP - 1881
    LAB - 1396
    CON - 349
    GRN - 127
    CHR - 77
    UKIP - 43
    LDEM - 32
    PIRA - 12

    The Pirate Party - I didn't come up with the acronym!
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    JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    edited August 2015
    This is a very interesting article in the Spectator, revealing how most of the mainstream media would not touch the Kids Company story:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/milesgoslett/2015/08/the-inside-story-of-how-the-spectator-broke-the-kids-company-scandal/

    As on the child abuse revelations, it becomes increasingly clear that the top politicians, journalists, business executives and charity leaders all operate in an elite London bubble, and no-one wants to do anything to burn bridges in dinner party circles. It's the reason why, time and time again, the more compelling arguments and critiques come from the radical right.

    The intervention of the BBC's Alan Yentob, part of an organisation that should be scrutinising public figures, lobbying on behalf of them to friends in government is a classic case. It also explains how the BBC have focused on the negative effects of closing Kids Company down in most of their news bulletins.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    There's huge gaps between back and lay on betfair's GOP betting for some of the more unlikely candidates.

    The liquidity is still very poor. Went to bed before the main debate, woke up this morning, just £2000 had changed hands...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I think it the probabilities look like:
    JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
    YC on transfers (30%)
    AB on transfers (20%)

    Yes, I think that's a reasonable guesstimate.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Thanx :smiley:

    Plato said:

    Who are PIRA? Bit of an unfortunate acronym

    Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:

    SNP - 1881
    LAB - 1396
    CON - 349
    GRN - 127
    CHR - 77
    UKIP - 43
    LDEM - 32
    PIRA - 12

    The Pirate Party - I didn't come up with the acronym!
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    Plato said:

    What are the Tories @ Holyrood now? And in terms of local seats?

    DavidL said:

    I think that there is an outside chance that the Tories may have more seats than Labour in 2016. Labour are on target to lose almost all their constituency seats and the Greens are indeed nibbling away at the List opportunities for Labour (where the SNP will get almost none given their constituency results).

    If the Tories can consolidate the ex Lib Dem vote in the borders and possibly in north east Scotland they have a chance of doing better. The Scottish Lib Dems have 5 seats at the moment, Orkney, Shetland and 3 list MSPs. Don't see them holding onto most of them.

    The Greens will probably come 4th, albeit closer to both Labour and the Tories than they are at the moment.

    15 MSPs
    115 local councillors

    (therefore, not quite Panda territory!)
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.

    My position isn't quite what I want because I was on holiday last week and as a result was caught out by the shortening of Corbyn's odds last week.
    Yes, I'm about to go on holiday to Germany, which is very Betfair-unfriendly IIRC. So I might have to just see where I am next weekend, after all the Corbyn "exposés".
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733

    Just a small point but the Hamilton South figures are showing as being identical to the Anderston numbers. I think the correct result is as follows:

    SNP - 1881
    LAB - 1396
    CON - 349
    GRN - 127
    CHR - 77
    UKIP - 43
    LDEM - 32
    PIRA - 12

    Technically the Pirate Candidate (Not convinced by the PIRA acronym, more usually I've seen PRTE) got 13 votes not 12.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:

    Howzat

    Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'

    Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
    Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
    It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG

    For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    AndyJS said:

    Tissue_Price: thanks for the offer but I've decided Australia can't be so bad that they won't get 60 again.

    The only thing wrong with the Aussie score was it was not 87. Maybe they will get that in the 2nd innings.
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    Plato said:

    Surely you should be virulent on Liz :wink:

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
    Good moaning! I brung you a massage: The Loobour Party loadership contest is hitting up! Jeremy Carbine seems to be the early foovourite over Andy Barnham, Yvette Keeper and Liz Candle.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    JEO said:

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    Can you imagine the reaction of left-wingers if Liz did win? It would be hilarious.
    In that case all the right wingers have paid their £3 to vote for the wrong candidate...
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    Plato said:

    Howzat

    Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'

    Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
    Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
    It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG

    For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.

    The BBC have plenty of money. They simply choose to prioritise spending on pointless building moves, ill fated technical projects, executive salaries and part time Creative Directors rather than actual programming.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited August 2015
    On topic, I've done a bit of number-crunching. The swing in Glasgow was disproportionate from the 2012 local elections to the 2015 general election as compared with the rest of Scotland, and there was an 19% swing from the SNP to Labour over that period (obviously these are on different turnout levels, so it's not a safe comparison). Nevertheless, the SNP seem to have done even better than the May results in the local elections in Glasgow, given the swings noted above.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
    I think it the probabilities look like:
    JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
    YC on transfers (30%)
    AB on transfers (20%)

    I don't think I'd have JC quite so strong in the first round but I do agree that he should be marginally odds-on overall. Although he's likely to do quite poorly on transfers relative to Burnham or Cooper, he will benefit significantly from non-transferable votes reducing the barrier for victory from 50% of all votes cast in the first round to around 46-47 by the end.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Plato said:

    Howzat

    Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'

    Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
    Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
    It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG

    For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.

    The BBC has a guaranteed income of more than £3bn per annum. It may be short of lots of things but one of them isn't money.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    watford30 said:

    Plato said:

    Howzat

    Amazon 'wooed Clarkson, Hammond and May for new 'Top Gear' show with promise of £160MILLION budget'

    Numerous broadcasters including Netflix had hoped to secure the team
    Former Top Gear producer revealed it was budget that sealed the deal
    It is Amazon’s biggest single investment in original content to date

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3187911/Amazon-wooed-Clarkson-Hammond-new-Gear-promise-160MILLION-budget.html#ixzz3i8HI5JVG

    For all the bleating about the BBC, this is a reminder that cash is king. The networks with the deepest pockets can buy more rights to sports and films, and pay more to writers, producers and directors, as well as the onscreen talent.
    The BBC have plenty of money. They simply choose to prioritise spending on pointless building moves, ill fated technical projects, executive salaries and part time Creative Directors rather than actual programming.

    Isn't the BBC income something like £5bn ??
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    In the private sector I think heads would be rolling left, right and centre - hopefully the FOIs are flying into the Cabinet Office - brutal analysis here:

    http://www.capx.co/why-camila-batmanghelidjh-had-access-to-a-prime-ministerial-slush-fund/

    " There are many lessons that need to be absorbed in the aftermath of this Kids Company debacle. One surely is that the essential services, provided to our most vulnerable kids in the country should not become dependent on charismatic charity founders seeking support from Prime Ministerial slush funds. Secondly, it is preposterous to have a dedicated department making grant payments to individual charities delivering services that cut right across the work of other government departments. "
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    @HenryGManson and @antifrank think JC should be odds-on. @TissuePrice thinks Yvette will win this.

    It's not often that I disagree with @TissuePrice, but on this one I'm with HenryG and antifrank. Not a bad place to be, obviously.

    In betting terms I'm all-green (unless it's Liz, but I'm not losing much sleep over that risk), with currently my best profit on Yvette, then JC, then AB. I'm rebalancing a bit so as to make JC my best outcome, but I intend to stay all-green.

    You don't really disagree with me that much. I am red Burnham, green Corbyn and virulently verdant Cooper.
    I think it the probabilities look like:
    JC in the first round (25%) or later (25%)
    YC on transfers (30%)
    AB on transfers (20%)

    I don't think I'd have JC quite so strong in the first round but I do agree that he should be marginally odds-on overall. Although he's likely to do quite poorly on transfers relative to Burnham or Cooper, he will benefit significantly from non-transferable votes reducing the barrier for victory from 50% of all votes cast in the first round to around 46-47 by the end.
    Yes. The 25% for Corbyn is assuming he has a fairly small deficit to make up. But he will get some Burnham transfers, if Burnham is not in the top two.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cook shells one from Warner.
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