politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Private poll” seen by Mirror sees Corbyn with 22% lead on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Private poll” seen by Mirror sees Corbyn with 22% lead on first prefs with Cooper pipping Burnham for 2nd place
It’s hard to comment on private polling and I’ve no idea about the veracity of it. But I don’t think that the Mirror would be flagging it in the way it is without it having some confidence about the source.
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He threw away the substantial goodwill the grassroots had for him (it was less than a year ago that he was given standing ovations at the Labour conference).
As far as I am concerned, its one thing for a British politician to entertain Jerry Adams and Martin McGuiness at Westminster in 2015. But I seriously question the judgement of any British politician who thought it was acceptable to invite Jerry Adams to London in 1984!
I'm wondering if having a glass of wine after completing the first coat was a good idea or not ...
Mike has just informed me, that he will be on holiday/I will be editing PB when the Labour leadership result will be announced.
You all know nothing major/important happens when Mike is on holiday.
Burnham 2.1 = lay of the century - if you have £8k spare...
Burnham -22
Corbyn +23
Cooper +56
Kendall -5
I, of course, am a sober chap who would not recommend such a decadent course.
But as for the rest - Labour's system of instant second preference voting, as opposed to actually knowing who are the leading choices, is absurd. The absence of a proper run-off between the final 2 candidates is bonkers. Appropriately enough labour members are blindfold and playing a game of stick the tail on the donkey.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/next-labour-party-leader/next-permanent-labour-party-leader/214477998/
Edited extra bit: that said, Ladbrokes have fiddled with their site, again...
I didn't dislike the Labour manifesto in 2015. But I didn't think it was very interesting. Freeze electricity prices for a bit? Be a little less nasty on benefits and immigrants? Is that it? Maybe we should just stand for what we believe in (broadly what DavidL said in the last thread), and let voters do what they think best. It's, like, democracy.
What are you flying at the moment? Are you a peaceful trader or a pusillanimous pirate?
Is that anyway to run Her Majesty's opposition?
As a Tory I am most scared of Cooper. (Well, Kendall would be similar, but judging by the polling she's not in the race.)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/64/Hardie_elect.jpg
He would likely deliver Home Rule to Scotland and be nice about it. The best deal for Scotland would be Full Fiscal Barnett ( "FFB" ) with Scotland getting its extra public spending and keeping all of its taxes.
I leave up £50 to be matched at 3.7 for Corbyn on Betfair and this article appears whilst I've driven home and done the shopping.
Fucks sake !
"Channel gridlock was caused by 2,000 migrants storming Calais terminal
Eurotunnel reveals scale of disturbance caused by migrants on French soil as Kent police reintroduce Operation Stack to ease UK’s roads"
`http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/28/emergency-measures-on-kent-roads-to-combat-channel-tunnel-gridlock
It will be hilarious if Burnham comes 3rd though. Leadership elections really aren't his forte....
It would be really helpful if TSE could do a thread on the nuances of LAB's electoral method to those of us that are a bit unsure how the system works.
I'm currently planning
1 LK, 2 JC, 3 YC, 4 AB
I mean I ask you! No wonder Labour are in a mess.
"But once second preferences have been taken into account the veteran leftwinger is ahead by just two points on 51% to Ms Cooper’s 49%."
That's very tight, given his huge lead on 1st prefs. According to this polling, JC is picking up surprisingly few 2nd prefs even from Burnham...
@handandmouse If it's that close, then it may still be all to play for.
Edited extra bit: Ms. Apocalypse, a good point.
All reasonable wills will pass muster..
Now if only I had a little more time ...
Burnham 2.7 / 2.9
Corbyn 2.86 / 3.1
Cooper 3.75 / 3.95
Kendall 46 / 55
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886
Good suggestion, Mr. 30. I have a map around somewhere which shows the borders we would control under this new arrangement. I mean if the Frogs want us to control Calais we might as well do it properly as we did in the past (until Mary I got her incompetent hands on the throne) Come to that we might as well go the whole hog and revert to the Treaty of Troyes, which the Frogs treacherously broke.
Why has this private poll (of which we have no idea its methodology or who commissioned it) moved the betting, when the YouGov poll didn't?
The notion the only way for the poor to get a little richer is for the very rich to get much richer needs to be challenged. For all the talk of the amount of taxation paid by the wealthy, a pint of milk, a gallon of fuel, a loaf of bread or a house costs the same irrespective of your income.
The question then is do you pursue an actively redistributionist agenda where those things that the very rich have in abundance whether they be material in terms of luxury goods or physical in terms of land and buildings become the focus of "wealth" taxation ?
As for David Cameron's speech on corruption today, Mrs Stodge, who works in financial compliance, opined as to how many estate agents employ AML (Anti Money Laundering) teams or whether they are simply happy to take their commission as dodgy money.
Andy Burnham NOT to win @ 4-6 Ladbrokes.
But, in general, healthy adult children who do not receive legacies will struggle to establish a claim for family provision, save in very unusual circumstances.
If he becomes leader and awakens the imaginations of the apathetic across the country with his policies the Tories will have an unusual fight on their hands countering it. The restiveness Nick mentions is not to be taken lightly. My otherwise normal and sound Labour supporting friends were almost unanimously behind Corbyn last week.
If he does win and wins well, would the parliamentary party dare to move quickly against him in a coup?
Credit to Corbyn for making politics seriously interesting.
A far bett judgement to read, if you're desperately keen, is Peter Smith J recusing himself from the Emerald vs BA cartel litigation. It's on Bailii although I have no idea how to link through from an iPad (and even accessing PB is a PITA from an iPad). Even judges have a sense of humour, it appears.
Damage control already?
Yougov showed Corbyn beating Cooper by a wider margin on preferences than he beat Burnham
Do those circumstances apply in this case? An adult woman who left home, married and raised a family of her own. She's poor. But so what? She and her mother fell out. So what? Even if it was the mother's fault, so what? Parents aren't obliged to be nice to their children once they're adult.
There is a campaign in the US to get very rich people to leave all their money to charity rather than to their children. Suppose we had the same here. Are we going to have the courts interfere because, well, because why? Because they don't like what people have done with their own money?
I'm generally in favour of people looking after their own families and taking responsibility for their own families. But if they decide that their children should stand on their own two feet - whether that's done out of malice or a belief that it's best for the child or just out of a bloody minded belief that their money is theirs or even, as in the case of the parents of a close friend of mine, because they wanted to pay inheritance tax to the country which gave them refuge from the Nazis, why the hell shouldn't they?
Looking like provided the against/for transfer ratio is no worse than about 5, he's in...
Anyone who lived through the Derek Hatton era is a bit despondent at the prospect of going through it again simply because someone who hasn't had an original thought since the 1970s - and the ideas weren't original then, being merely rehashes of stuff which was discredited in the 1930's - at least by those with eyes to see and brains to think - is apparently the best hope for a party which thought that claiming to be morally superior to its opponents was all that was needed to win an election.
Incidentally I disagree with David Herdson who said on a previous thread that Cooper and Burnham are refusing to say what their vision is because it might scare potential voters off. That may be true but it's just as likely that they have no vision. Look at Gordon: years spent plotting and when he got to be leader, there was nothing there. It's just as likely that there's nothing behind Cooper's vinegary smile and priggish nagging and Burnham's doe-eyed Northern Labour shtick.
Also, I think unison are still to back someone. They emailed the other day asking members who they wished to back, and I gather the majority emailed for Corbyn.
Not sure I agree on Burnham. He did badly last time and he's unimpressive now. I can see him trying again, and again.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/626095800511262720
*Being serious, I think she's a little higher.
I'm just suggesting that I wouldn't completely write him off as a guaranteed disaster for Labour who'd never get elected. Social media, social angst, short memories and sheer bloody-mindedness can be potent weapons. Put them all together in Corbyn's corner and we could see something extraordinary happen!
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ul79cmahd5/LabourLeadership_150721_day_one_W.pdf
Some points that I think help him as a candidate:
It helps that he is an old white man, as it makes him seem more avuncular and less radical than, say, Diane Abbott, as a radical black woman, who could not realistically attain the same status in 2010.
It helps that he seems to have a very "normal" lifestyle, albeit abnormal for an MP - facilitated by his Inner London constituency. It suits the era of austerity to have a teetotal, cycling, quasi-Roundhead figure, rather than, say, a Yanis Varoufakis impersonator.
Don't forget the Oculus Rift.
On Hamas and Hezbollah, his explanation given on Victoria Derbyshire and a few times since was all that he needed to say, and I agree with that - the road to peace must be through negotiation that includes all sides of the conflict.
But like you, I think he will need to show that is prepared to compromise on some of his more overtly pacifistic foreign policy stances.
When the ebola outbreak was spiking there were rumours ISIS were trying to get it further afield.
In reality, some people may be committed to vote but don't understand AV and just vote with an X for their first preference. They will instead vote with an X for their next-favourite candidate continuing in the race.
Some other people who don't fully understand AV may be comfortable giving Corbyn a second preference to indulge their radical instincts, but can't bring themselves to give him a first preference, even though every vote is worth the same. Consider this a psychological bargaining procedure.