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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to be challenging
In the aftermath of May 7th UKIP was taking some comfort from the 120 second places it had chalked up suggesting that this provided a good platform for next time. Maybe.
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FPT Anecdotes work both ways, and it is not just the bottom five or ten per cent or just benefits recipients who feel like they lose out, though it may seem that way from certain communities, which are favourable to the Conservatives.
They won thirty seven per cent support and a ten-seat majority even when the threat of a Scottish say in government was agreed retrospectively by all to be an incredibly powerful force in England. Admittedly, many of the sixty-three per cent are irrelevant to this particular question of public support because they vote for Ukip in Labour safe seats. Still, even they didn't see fit to endow Cameron and chose in many ways a much more pro-traditional economics alternative to either Conservatives or Labour, i.e. protect benefits and the NHS - as long as you're English - what the Europeans call "welfare chauvinism" when the Front National does it.
The UK could be one election away from a Labour minority with the support of every other HoC party, and all the reversal of direction of the centre ground so embodied. Really voters move the centre ground by choosing governments. They go right and they go left and democratic governments tend towards their own reversals as the embodied contradictions build up.
Expectations matter too. There is no doubt that the ten-seat majority gives a much more powerful mandate than it would seem to historically merit, because it was so unexpected and because it succeeded a coalition. So that has its own impact on momentum which the Conservatives ought to use as much as they can in the early years of this government (pre-Europe).
http://labourlist.org/2015/07/unite-sign-up-over-50000-members-to-vote-in-labour-leadership-contest/
...The Blue team got 330 first places!
It's still a high barrier, much higher than the LD's 3% and the Greens 2%.
The problem is the usual one, the LD still have some legacy support from the time they were a political party, the Greens concentrate all their campaign and messaging in university seats.
UKIP haven't concentrated at any particular segment of society, their support is equally broad among almost all demographics.
He voted for Ed Miliband last time.
But,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html
The reason he didn't flourish as a Minister is said to be that he wasn't up for the haggling and compromise stuff - he'd lock himself away for a day at a time, and come out with The Solution, accepting no variation. Hague's joke that Blair had told Field to think the unthinkable and then said "That's unthinkable!" when he saw the result had a lot of truth in it. But his strength is the converse of the weakness - you get an absolutely unvarnished, intellectually coherent opinion from him.
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/618461469798191104
Innocent face.
If he wins, he at least represents most of the party.
If not, they see what proportion of the party wants that stuff, because let's face it his is the opposite of a personality-based campaign.
FWIW, my instinct is that he will now come third. Kendall has shown the vulnerability of a campaign relying on media who like it when Labour people kick their own side. Forgetting perhaps that all the voters were ordinary party members.
On a similar note, in the US with the more than a dozen declared Republican candidates, most of whom have to know they have no chance, and not even a chance to get much publicity either particularly if they don't get through to the debates (though I'm unclear how they are narrowed down), so what are they actually hoping to achieve personally?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8248795.stm
"I don't want to be remembered for my tennis accomplishments. That's no contribution to society. That [tennis] was purely selfish; that was for me."
Source http://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-presidential-debates-set-a-high-bar-1432586670
So far there are 19 candidates declared for Presidential nomination - 14 Republicans and 5 Democrats, with potentially a couple more on each side still to declare!
Source: http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/whos-running-for-president-in-2016/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3151387/Raped-playground-11-abused-seven-men-night-aged-12-Victim-Rotherham-Asian-sex-gang-scandal-tells-truly-horrifying-story.html
It should remind us all that 'broken Britain' isn't just a slogan, but something that really destroyed people's lives.
In the US 2016 will be the first race for 8 years without an incumbent president and the last for at least another 8 years so many Republicans think they have an outside shot even if they are given very long odds to win. None of the GOP top tier has established a big lead either and anything could happen. For such candidates, Santorum, Huckabee, Perry, Christie, Fiorina, Carson etc their age means this is probably their last chance to run for the big one!
However long they put these people away, it's not long enough - and that has to include those in authority who deliberately ignored the problem, if we are ever to trust these authorities again.
As to how US primary candidates are narrowed down - most pull out when it is clear they can no longer raise the funds necessary to continue (and don't want to spend the rest of their life in debt).
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/2016-presidential-candidates.html?ref=politics&_r=0
Agree about Burnham, although it could be argued that Lab have had quite enough of the intellect bit for a while.
My point being they came 3rd not 2nd
In the US, once Iowa and NH are over certainly at least half the contendors will have fallen by the wayside
A former political big beast that is probably better known by most people for his media work, and probably even then not for the political stuff
Maybe as a result, this time they'll be more tolerant of the mainstream soft left who only want some kind of opposition to austerity and a somewhat critical attitude to the super-rich and big businesses.
CUWNBPM
Farage had his moment and blew it.
Portillo is a genuine BOOer, a conservative with clout without the divisive element that ukip carry
Portillo is not a Conservative with clout, he's not even yesterday's man, or last decade's man.. He's rather like that ever so nice Mr Redwood: a proven failure. He has public knowledge through his programs on trains.. and zero political credibility outside a very narrow band of redneck out of touch Conservatives...
I am not sure that there really needs to be an official leader for either side, this is a referendum - not a presidential contest.
I don't really think he would stay out of it because he thinks it shouldn't have been called because out will lose though, doesn't make sense to me that
The Greek finance minister has published an essay arguing that it is vital for Greece to stay in the Eurozone in order to overthrow Capitalism and promote Communism in the EU from within (what a crazy guy):
http://www.workersliberty.org/system/files/milios.pdf
"Communist Dilemmas on the Greek Euro-Crisis: To Exit or
Not to Exit?
Christos Laskos, John Milios and Euclid Tsakalotos"
Jeremy Corbyn leaps into second place in race for Labour leadership supporters
Left-wing Labour leadership candidate has backing of 28 constituencies as he quickly becomes a major player in the race
Labour MPs said privately that his surprise success was a "disaster" for the party which will "now be stuck with him".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11732639/Jeremy-Corbyn-leaps-into-second-place-in-race-for-Labour-leadership-supporters.html
I hope he goes for it
I am truly looking forward to one thing if, as anticipated, some sort of fudgy compromise is reached, and that's the linguistic contortions that will be undertaken to try to insist that this time its really sorted, that this deal was not a climbdown from anyone really or some such talk.
Though it was amusing to see people try to not appear to have been disloyal to a leader and platform they had been saying was excellent right up to the election, while wanting to explain they were the one to 'fix' the mess they were now in. It basically boiled down to 'Ed was great and our campaign was great...but we need to change what we said, how we said it and who was saying it, as those were crap'.
On Corbyn, can I just say to the Labour party: Serves. You. Right.
You wanted to be politically correct and inclusive - and this is what you get.
Being a leader needs an element of ruthlessness to beat the competition, not someone who is let in because you felt sorry for him.