politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nick Sparrow, the pollster who did most to change post-1992
Comments
-
And already has had an extensive debt restructuring so as to pay a far lower rate of interest on debt than previously!david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.david_herdson said:
I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
This was tweeted by the Economist on how government by IOU works. It may be possible until fresh elections, but probably not more than a few months:
Take a look at @TheEconomist's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/617735383992942597?s=09
0 -
Agreed. That said, weeks of chaos might focus minds and would undoubtedly give the lie to Syriza's promises.foxinsoxuk said:
Not just Tsipras but the entirety of Syrizia, most of all are more radical than Tsipras. Which means weeks of chaos while fresh elections occur.david_herdson said:
It implies a better deal for the Greeks but only, I suspect, after Tsipras has gone.SeanT said:
Has he been lying to them? We have no idea. See the more recent mood music from Brussels (i.e. yesterday and today). Lots of Eurocrats - and continental politicians - are desperate to keep the euro together and prevent a Grexit at almost any cost.foxinsoxuk said:
The will of the Greek people is to stay in the Euro by a 3:1 ratio. When they find out that Tsiprias has been lying to them about voting No and keeping the Euro the mob will turn.hunchman said:
Totally agree with you SeanT. Voters have simply had enough of the endless lies and subjugation from Brussels. And as for a Grexit having no implications for the rest of the Eurozone, none of the Eurozone simply have a clue. This is the first of a domino effect that will tear the Euro apart, however much they'll do everything in their declining power base to try and hold everything together. History repeatedly shows that once you go against the will of the people, sooner or later they will get their way. And the longer they have to wait for that change, the more violent the change that eventually erupts.SeanT said:Fantastic (if Pyrrhic) victory for Tsipras if he gets a NO. All the media were agin him, and pimping shamelessly for YES.
It shows the mood that voters are in across the West. Mutinous, capricious and prepared for anything. Cf Scotland in 2014.
Europhiles who think IN is a cert for the UK EU ref should think again.
This implies a haircut for creditors, as per the IMF report, as there is no other way to keep Greece in the EZ. This implies a better deal for Tsipras and the Greeks.0 -
Isn't his role specifically not to take sides in political debate, as the referee rather than advancing the point of any one side?Charles said:
How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?Moses_ said:
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
He is also an MP, he can be voted out in the usual manner at an election.0 -
It seems like the young people of Greece are very much in the no camp.
With gargantuan youth unemployment, one can hardly blame them.0 -
Results coming in?
https://twitter.com/MacroPolis_gr/status/6177423264342794240 -
More of a female version of Hazel Blears. Spouting the latest party line again and again and again.... A NAV. No Added Value.williamglenn said:
0 -
H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....0 -
I seem to remember back in February / March, the Eurozone finance ministers mocking Osborne for having done contingency planning for Greece leaving the euro. Between this and the General Election, Osborne must be in danger of getting incredibly smug.0
-
Not "in the usual manner" as the electorate aren't given a full slate of options.Sandpit said:
Isn't his role specifically not to take sides in political debate, as the referee rather than advancing the point of any one side?Charles said:
How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?Moses_ said:
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
He is also an MP, he can be voted out in the usual manner at an election.
Not all parties stand against the speaker so it's a most peculiar local situation and much harder to vote him out that way.0 -
Well, not close would be best, right? No arguments about what path the country wanted to follow, whichever crap path ends up being followed.0
-
NO is substantially ahead in every region and every electoral district.
60% NO 40% YES
Very decisive. I've lost my bet but I'm glad for the Greeks.0 -
= debt write off.
LOL what a precedent.
Just think, if the Irish had behaved like petulant children, instead of responsible Europeans, they might have got a debt write off too.
0 -
No idea.Charles said:
How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?Moses_ said:
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book0 -
This article from Nick goes close to endorsing Hodges article. It does show how good Hodges can be at nailing the truth even at risk to his own reputation and future work.JohnO said:.....
Or - as it feels to me - the pollsters themselves, because of subtle pressure from clients, media, commentariat 'wisdom', whatever etc, chose to ensure that their results accorded close to the perceived average, presumably by various 'adjustings' at the last minute. TSE has reported that ICM, for one, has vigorously denied that this took place in the last week, when its hitherto findings of the Conservatives someway ahead suddenly went into sharp reverse and catastrophically erroneous gear on polling day. Others did the same.
Dan Hodges is scathing about the herd factor which he contends simply isn't possible statitically. I'm afraid Nick's piece does little as credible refutation.
JohnO you are right in regarding the polsters actions as bordering on the shameful, but they will suffer in their bank accounts from reputational damage. Utter madness. An outbreak of Ratner like actions.0 -
That's updating every minute or two now as the results come in. Looking like 60:40 'No' so far. At least it's decisive!SeanT said:
Yes:Sandpit said:Results coming in?
twitter.com/MacroPolis_gr/status/617742326434279424
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
So far it is overwhelmingly NO. Not close at all.
0 -
Looking back it was rather cruel to torment Mark Senior as he was very clearly not the full shilling upstairs.TCPoliticalBetting said:
29/12/2014 Mark Senior wrote "FWIW, my own forecast for next May is Lib Dems 14-15% and 35-38 seats"Charles said:
I mentioned Yeovil specifically a couple of times as a seat at risk, as well as Chippenham (which I took an active interest in). And extrapolated them to the West country as whole.ydoethur said:Incidentally another thought occurs to me, linked to OGH's comments on the Liberal Democrat vote moving to Labour - with hindsight, that benefitted the Conservatives as well. This was something I did not foresee, but it appears we all far underestimated how much of the orange vote was purely tactical. With that unwinding, of course it helped Labour a little - but how many seats did the Conservatives win because Labour and the LDs split the vote between them? Certainly at least 30, many of them in the West Country. A huge gain of votes to Labour that actually had a negative impact on their chances of winning power. We all knew about this effect - yet I didn't hear anyone speculate on how tactical unwind would benefit the Tories, given that the tactic was to keep them out in the first place.
But each time I did, I was shouted down by Mark Senior with a mass of tediously irrelevant data, so gave up trying to highlight what was coming down the track.
Mark Senior also said it was "Only in TC's wet dreams" when taffys said: "Are we looking at the possibility of the lib dems losing Kingston/Surbiton and even Twickers...???"
No dream, just reality....
He used to bite like a 20 year old cat with diabetes and I've got to admit that poking him with a stick was one of the (many) joys of the campaign for me.0 -
Of course. All Germany did was start a genocidal war that killed 60 million people. No where near as bad as daring to upset the EU and get into financial trouble aided and abetted by the rest of the EU.david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.david_herdson said:
I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).SeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
I suggest you need a serious reality check.0 -
You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.0
-
What other serious option did they have? Handing over control of the country to unelected, foreign entities entirely complicit in causing the problem in the first place was never going to be a hugely popular option.Barnesian said:NO is substantially ahead in every region and every electoral district.
60% NO 40% YES
Very decisive. I've lost my bet but I'm glad for the Greeks.
0 -
"Nai, we can!"SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
"Oh, Okhi, then!"0 -
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
0 -
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.0 -
Within Parliament - this way:Moses_ said:
No idea.Charles said:
How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?Moses_ said:
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
http://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/speakers-election/0 -
The Greek referendum does nothing to change the broader dynamic.
Look at how pleased the English were at the thought of Scotland getting it's way.
All over Europe, countries will be getting that English feeling about Greece's Scottish style referendum result.0 -
You've said this a few times now Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Nai, we can!"SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
"Oh, Okhi, then!"
Is it a quote from somewhere?
Google doesn't give me any results.0 -
If he now gets a significantly better deal than had been previously offered, it was a dangerously risky gamble, an insanely risky gamble, but would have paid off. A hell of an if though. Were Tsipras and co really as confident as they claimed I wonder? Their tactics around the initial announcement did not seem super as confident.SeanT said:
This is a huge political triumph for Tsipras though. Which means that he will be impossible to remove, in the short order that Merkel wants. He's won an election by a distance, and now a referendum against the odds.kle4 said:Well, not close would be best, right? No arguments about what path the country wanted to follow, whichever crap path ends up being followed.
.0 -
No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.0 -
SeanT said:
That all depends on how well quarantined the Eurozone is from a debt default. At the moment, Greece is playing with a grenade in its own kitchen. If it goes off, it'll devastate its own house but bar a few broken windows won't damage the rest of the street all that much.david_herdson said:
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.Richard_Tyndall said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.david_herdson said:
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.SeanT said:
I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).HYUFD said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.jayfdee said:Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off0 -
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
0 -
You are right about a different path - they had worked out how to conquer the rest of europe politically instead.david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
A better result for the boxheads this time around though. Most of the continent now firmly under control and just some English and Greek partisans fighting in the hills.0 -
You do know some quotes on PB are original material, GeoffGeoffM said:
You've said this a few times now Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Nai, we can!"SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
"Oh, Okhi, then!"
Is it a quote from somewhere?
Google doesn't give me any results.
0 -
They will be on their knees soon enough!Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.
One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!0 -
Indeed - someone else suggested Cameron, which is a better parallel. Schultz is a German MEP, who has been elected by the left-wing group of MEPs to be their candidate for President. That's all he is - President of the EU Parliament (hence my Speaker parallel) not some spokesman for the European demos.Sandpit said:
Isn't his role specifically not to take sides in political debate, as the referee rather than advancing the point of any one side?Charles said:
How do you vote Bercow out as Speaker?Moses_ said:
Take a different approachdavid_herdson said:
In what way is he "unelected"?Moses_ said:
Of course they will that's not the point.the point is the arrogant interference by an unelected officialfoxinsoxuk said:
Sounds more like a statement of the bleeding obvious to me! If the Greek banks are without liquidity in Euros then they will have to use something else.Sandpit said:
That's quite disgraceful! The Greek govt are wrong about almost everything, but the one thing they have right is that there's no mechanism for them to be kicked out of the Euro.Moses_ said:Direct interference in a sovereign nations democratic process by the EU. They are now not even doing this discreetly . They want regime change because they don't like the government that was voted into power. This was recorded Thursday but broadcast today on the day of the referendum !
Reuters
The head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, told German radio that Greece would have to introduce another currency if the “no” vote wins in Sunday's referendum on an aid-for-reforms deal.
"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment," Schulz told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio in an interview broadcast on Sunday and taped on Thursday.
"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”
His comments are some of the clearest made by a top EU official.
This sort of statement by EU officials doesn't bode well for the British referendum either, although the consequences for a British exit are very different to those in Greece.
I don't want him.... How do I vote him out? Where do I cast my vote directly against him. I can't ....
That may be acceptable for the EU but That's makes him unelected in my book
He is also an MP, he can be voted out in the usual manner at an election.0 -
If he now gets a significantly better deal than had been previously offered, it was a dangerously risky gamble, an insanely risky gamble, but would have paid off.
If Merkel and Co. cave in to Syriza, there will be almighty hell to pay. Politically. Economically.0 -
The Greeks are doing their part to drive themselves into the wall however.SouthamObserver said:
why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
0 -
Leonidas-Tsipras: SPARTANS! What is YOUR profession?
Greeks: Unemployed! Unemployed! Unemployed!0 -
They're popular because the Greeks tried the other way and it did not work. When you leave a people hopeless this is what you get if you do not take their votes away. The whole thing is a massive indictment not of Greek voters but of the elites who created the situation in the first place and who are completely shielded from its consequences.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
0 -
Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in nowSeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.0 -
0
-
Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon - 15% counted and 60-40 to no.
Only 4 days ago it was neck and neck in the polls - About as accurate as GE2015 then
0 -
Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...SeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?0 -
Indeed, their is a cultural difference between the Socialist Government in France and Hollande which has sympathy with its Mediterranean cousins and the Teutonic Conservative Government in GermanySeanT said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.HYUFD said:
Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*0 -
Merkel's worst nightmare - an international issue she won't be able to kick down the road a little longer?HYUFD said:
Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in nowSeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
0 -
Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in now
not to mention the markets.....once this precedent is set any country could cite Greece as an example of how they should be treated. Stay in the euro on easy terms. Haircuts for investors. Let someone else pay.
0 -
What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.foxinsoxuk said:
They will be on their knees soon enough!Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.
One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!0 -
Any chance of a military coup next week when the banks run out of money?0
-
Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:Richard_Tyndall said:
No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/0 -
Indeed. But Greece was also a creditor nation who did the right thing for the future and forgave large amounts of German debt. Which is the point you are ignoring.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:Richard_Tyndall said:
No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/0 -
I am not egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country. That is your position in supportting the neo-marxists of Syrizia. I want Greece to vote Yes and accept the IMF package.Richard_Tyndall said:
What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.foxinsoxuk said:
They will be on their knees soon enough!Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.
One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!0 -
Greek islands coming out strongly in favour of No.0
-
david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
My enemies enemy is my friend?foxinsoxuk said:
They will be on their knees soon enough!Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.
One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!0 -
0
-
Greece has already had large amounts of debt forgiven, has it not? I don't doubt that realistically they need even more to be forgiven, but the rhetoric seems to be that they have not had any assistance whatsoever and have done everything they have been asked, reasonable or not. Which doesn't seem the case.0
-
I have never denied that the Greeks participated in the debt forgiveness of Germany. Your Europhobia blinds you.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. But Greece was also a creditor nation who did the right thing for the future and forgave large amounts of German debt. Which is the point you are ignoring.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:Richard_Tyndall said:
No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/0 -
It will be the beginning of the end of the whole EU project.rcs1000 said:
Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...SeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?0 -
Indeed. Looks like next week will be even more interesting than last week if the result goes as well for Syriza as it is looking now.SeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
20: 37 20% counted, No 60.5%0 -
Is a Greek-less Eurozone strengthened or weakened?0
-
Great to see the plucky Greeks standing up the the EU/IMF bully boys!0
-
"Capt. Nately: You're a shameful opportunist! What you don't understand is that it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
Old man in whorehouse: You have it backwards. It's better to live on your feet than to die on your knees. I know." Catch 220 -
Which the former head of the IMF bailout group had already said will do nothing to solve Greece’s problems. Indeed it will only make them worse. Any deal which did not include a massive reduction in debt is a failure before it starts. We realised that with Germany in 1953 and there are plenty of non-left wing commentators and experts who know that now. It seems it is only those who want to see Greece suffer and fail who refuse to accept this.foxinsoxuk said:
I am not egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country. That is your position in supportting the neo-marxists of Syrizia. I want Greece to vote Yes and accept the IMF package.Richard_Tyndall said:
What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.foxinsoxuk said:
They will be on their knees soon enough!Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.
One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!0 -
Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma0
-
Post WW11 debt relief for Germany was influenced by the catastrophic result of Versailles Treaty post WW1 and the fear of Russian tanks in the Eastern half of Germany.runnymede said:Greece was occupied for four years and economically devastated. By Germany.
So were a lot of other countries. Germany was rewarded for that with enormous debt relief.
0 -
I knew that I read that somewhere, ;-)frpenkridge said:"Capt. Nately: You're a shameful opportunist! What you don't understand is that it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
Old man in whorehouse: You have it backwards. It's better to live on your feet than to die on your knees. I know." Catch 220 -
How long before the EU demands a second referendum?0
-
Kiss the Hun, Kill the Euro?chestnut said:Is a Greek-less Eurozone strengthened or weakened?
0 -
No have led most polls, it is the late swing the pollsters have again failed to pick upSimonStClare said:Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon - 15% counted and 60-40 to no.
Only 4 days ago it was neck and neck in the polls - About as accurate as GE2015 then0 -
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.SouthamObserver said:
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?0 -
Fill high the bowl with Samian wine!
0 -
Yes, she will have to stand firm on thiskle4 said:
Merkel's worst nightmare - an international issue she won't be able to kick down the road a little longer?HYUFD said:
Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in nowSeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
0 -
The trick is to sell guns to both sides.SeanT said:
Dunno. Civil war?rcs1000 said:
Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...SeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?
0 -
The more right-wing option doesn't always underpoll!0
-
No you just conveniently ignored it because it doesn't suit your narrative.foxinsoxuk said:
I have never denied that the Greeks participated in the debt forgiveness of Germany. Your Europhobia blinds you.Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. But Greece was also a creditor nation who did the right thing for the future and forgave large amounts of German debt. Which is the point you are ignoring.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:Richard_Tyndall said:
No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/0 -
Interesting (and, to my mind, spot on) take on Greece from a former colleague of mine on Bradford Council:
http://theviewfromcullingworth.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/a-warning-from-greece-crisis-of.html0 -
In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'
The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02w72j30 -
But debt forgiveness requires the co-operation of the debtor. If he refuses to mend his ways then it is like handing an unreformed alcoholic a tenner outside an off license.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which the former head of the IMF bailout group had already said will do nothing to solve Greece’s problems. Indeed it will only make them worse. Any deal which did not include a massive reduction in debt is a failure before it starts. We realised that with Germany in 1953 and there are plenty of non-left wing commentators and experts who know that now. It seems it is only those who want to see Greece suffer and fail who refuse to accept this.foxinsoxuk said:
I am not egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country. That is your position in supportting the neo-marxists of Syrizia. I want Greece to vote Yes and accept the IMF package.Richard_Tyndall said:
What is not funny is seeing Eurofanatics like yourself egging on the EU to destroy a sovereign country for the sake of the European ideal. It tells us all we need to know about the democratic deficit of both the EU and it's supporters.foxinsoxuk said:
They will be on their knees soon enough!Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
Better to live standing on your own two feet, than to die on your knees begging for more money from the hand that you have just bitten.
One of the funniest things is how on this thread the most right wing commentators cheering on the neo-marxists, because they see damage to mainstream europe. They would be foaming at the mouth if a Syrizia type government was on the cards here. Politics does indeed make for strange bedfellows!
If the alcoholic has dried out and is standing outside a supermarket then it is a different story.
I love Greece and its people and do not want to see it destroyed by Syrizia, egged on by Europhobes.0 -
Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones?
I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.0 -
Certainly it would be a blow to the Eurozone if Greece left, but an even worse blow would be if it stayed and got everything it wanted that would only lead Podemos, FN etc to make the same demandsSeanT said:
Of course. Horrible optics for Merkel. Yet the alternatives - Grexit, or an attempt to force Greeks to overthrow Tsipras by literally starving the entire country, are not obviously superior.HYUFD said:
Merkel's and Schauble's voters and the German tabloids like Bild would never forgive them if they caved in nowSeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
I do not believe (unlike David Herdson) that Europe is well insulated from Grexit. Yes the immediate economic consequences could be absorbed easily enough by the rest of the EU, but the political chaos could be horrendous.
The markets will clearly suspect that the euro's days are numbered, and turn on the next low hanging fruit. Portugal. Spain. Italy. Then there's the damage to the EU as a whole. As an irreversible "project".0 -
Je suis Bubble 'n' Squeak.0
-
I agree. If the EU lets Greece go to the wall, I will reconsider my support for the EU in the UK referendum.Sandpit said:
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.SouthamObserver said:
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?0 -
Prior Investment Fallacy.SeanT said:
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.HYUFD said:Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
0 -
The population of Greece is going to drop rather heavily in the next few months IMO as the well-educated relocate to northern Europe and elsewhere.0
-
It was Britain wot liberated Greece from the Nazis in 1944 - with Stalin's approval, he did NOT aid the Communists in the Civil War from 1946-49.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece was a major recipient of Marshall aid too, as well as military aid from both USA and UK:Richard_Tyndall said:
No it hadn't. It had had its whole economy restructured and rebuilt by the Western powers under their direct control and with vast sums of US money.david_herdson said:
Granted, but the key point is that at the time of the debt write-off (West) Germany had quite clearly set itself on a different path from that which resulted in the earlier disasters.GIN1138 said:
Germany did bring quite a lot of that on itself though...david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.
http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317677/0 -
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.SeanT said:
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.HYUFD said:Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.
0 -
How long before the Greeks demand a second referendum?runnymede said:How long before the EU demands a second referendum?
0 -
West Germany received debt forgiveness when it was officially still under military occupation by Allied Powers, including the UK, who therefore had a significant role in guaranteeing the correct direction of the country. Needless to say, Greece is not in a similar situation. Another difference is that Germany was never again going to spend its money in the same way it did while running up the debts, whereas Greece definitely would.0
-
Who would want to be part of it? Solidarity, my arse.Barnesian said:
I agree. If the EU lets Greece go to the wall, I will reconsider my support for the EU in the UK referendum.Sandpit said:
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.SouthamObserver said:
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?
0 -
Not near a telly. What's it like on the BBC News Channel? A lot of people crying into their moussaka no doubt?
0 -
Nigel Farage in a recent speech mentioned about the left staying to realise and wake up to the failed euracracy project.Sandpit said:
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.SouthamObserver said:
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?0 -
The only people left will be the pensioners - ironically who polled for Yes!AndyJS said:The population of Greece is going to drop rather heavily in the next few months IMO as the well-educated relocate to northern Europe and elsewhere.
Mass emigration is not going to help the Greek economy recover.0 -
Je suis Leonidas!Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Je suis Bubble 'n' Squeak.
0 -
..... But the ammunition only to the side you want to winGeoffM said:
The trick is to sell guns to both sides.SeanT said:
Dunno. Civil war?rcs1000 said:
Nor is it clear they have played it right. What happens if the eurozone does not blink, and banks do not open tomorrow... Or Tuesday...SeanT said:
Syriza have gambled that Europe will blink before the Greeks, and offer debt relief, fearing Greek economic implosion, or the Seven Plagues of Grexit.Sandpit said:
Syriza - the "Have Cake, Eat Cake and Lose Weight' Party.weejonnie said:You cannot expect children to vote for their favourite toy to be taken from them.
Of course they're popular.
As of this evening, it not at all clear that Syriza have played things wrong.
And what if Greece cannot import essential food, or fuel?0 -
Latvia is growing quickly, in the euro. The euro isn't holding Sweden down, and they manufactured a recession all on their own with abysmal interest rate hikes. Devaluation will not solve the problem of how to earn foreign currency; if you devalue just to reduce your tourism income per visitor in international terms, well, you need a lot more tourists to buy the same amount of oil or penicillin.TCPoliticalBetting said:
But, this is for the best for them. The Euro was holding them down. They may have a rough 18 - 24 months and then grow. We can always divert a billion of our aid budget for basics for them.SeanT said:
If I were Greek that outcome would tip me into suicidality.HYUFD said:Robert Peston saying bankers now believe the best move for Greece is to leave the Euro and return to the Drachma
It would mean the last four years of hideous austerity were for nothing, the drop of 26% of GDP was for NOTHING.
They could have exited the euro in 2011, taken the anticipated 30% fall in GDP, and by now they would be vigorously growing again.
As it is, if they exit now they will take a second sucker punch. And the agony of 2011-2015 will be rendered pointless.0 -
Richard_Tyndall said:
I suggest you do. Germany paid the price for WWII in the destruction of the country. The world paid the price for demanding punitive and endless reparations from Germany after WWI and learned the lesson. Germany learned the lesson of its past and committed to democracy.david_herdson said:
Of course. All Germany did was start a genocidal war that killed 60 million people. No where near as bad as daring to upset the EU and get into financial trouble aided and abetted by the rest of the EU.Richard_Tyndall said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.david_herdson said:
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.SeanT said:
I doubt that. Germany will want Greece to stay in the Euro too. What they don't want is for the Greek government to renege on the debts. A Syriza government could (and probably will) fall, to be replaced by someone more realistic and competent. A Grexit, by contrast, is a one-way road that would render national debts absolutely unaffordable (if there were a 50% devaluation, that implies the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 175% to 350% and while some countries have coped with 200%+, I'm not aware of any example of a country successfully paying down 300%+).HYUFD said:
But the French are desperate for Greece to stay in the euro. They fear contagion, etc. And French banks are owed almost as much, by Greece, as German banks.jayfdee said:Yes, not great news at all. Not decisive but still No which I think will now lead to Merkel putting her foot down and forcing Greece out of the Euro. Let us hope a humanitarian crisis in Greece does not occur but the signs are not hopeful!
Amongst other things this could provoke a Paris-Berlin showdown.
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
I suggest you need a serious reality check.
By contrast, Greece has not only failed to learn from its past economic errors but wants to continue them to an even greater extent. You forgive those that show repentance, which Greece clearly has no intention of doing.
Obviously the two are not comparable in scale (and I never suggested they were) but then I didn't start the comparison.0 -
Should be no more good money thrown after bad. They have borrowed to the hilt , refuse to mend their ways and want to just keep on borrowing. Time to let them fund themselves using their own means.SeanT said:
It doesn't matter how badly Greece has behaved, right now Greece is a spinning hand grenade in the corner of a crowded room - the eurozone - and it is about to go off.david_herdson said:
When Greece has had the sh*t bombed out of it, been divided and occupied for four years, lost a sizable chunk of territory and - fairly crucially - have shown to have mended its ways, it might be in a position to ask for the same.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Germans have selective memories. They forget that in 1953 Greece was one of hhe creditor nations that agreed a 50% reduction in German debt along with incredibly generous repayment options on the remaining debt.david_herdson said:SeanT said:HYUFD said:jayfdee said:
That would be about the worst possible result,split down the middle,mind you whatever the result it is a disaster for Greece.HYUFD said:As voting closes first polls suggest a narrow No in Greece it seems
Yes - 48.5%
No - 51.5% (MEGA channel)
https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
*knits by guillotine*
My impression is that the CDU government is no longer prepared to work with Tsipras and his colleagues but would be prepared to work with someone else. That will need a carrot later as well as a stick now.
Someone *could* pick it up and throw it out of the window, but they might kill themselves, and everyone in the room, and they might not even succeed, and if they do succeed they might kill people outside
= ejection from the eurozone
The alternative is to smother it with something. Jump on it with a blanket. Absorb the pain. Horrible for whoever does it. But arguably better than the alternative.
= debt write off0 -
The previous Euro referendum had Tony Benn and Enoch Powell arguing on the same side. Both great orators.hunchman said:
Nigel Farage in a recent speech mentioned about the left staying to realise and wake up to the failed euracracy project.Sandpit said:
That's a really insightful point. Up until now the main opposition to the EU (in this country at least) has been from those on the right of the political spectrum.SouthamObserver said:
If this result is confirmed, we find out a lot more about what the EU really is and isn't. All this talk of solidarity and togetherness we have heard for years is going to be put to the test. Will the EU let Greece go under and leave the Greek people in total penury? If it does, who wants to be a part of such an institution? Not me. The next few weeks and months could have a profound affect on our referendum. If you are on the left, why would you vote to stay in if the EU lets Greece go to the wall?Sean_F said:
Plainly, they've decided it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.SeanT said:
It looks like NO by a landslide, right now (I guess that could change).SimonStClare said:H/T G liveblog. - Nikos Voutsis, Greece’s interior minister and a close ally of Alexis Tsipras, has just spoken to the media.
He says that participation rate is over 50%, meaning the referendum is legally valid (the threshold is 40%). Feedback from the public shows that the public are satisfied with the way the referendum was held.
And Voutsis says that we should get a good official indication of the result by 9pm local time, or 7pm BST. Not long to wait....
Cat~pigeons.
If Greece is hung out to dry by the unelected bureaucrats in the coming weeks and months, will there be a left wing resurgence calling for the UK to leave the EU?
Will we get to see Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan sharing a stage for the No campaign..?0 -
Surely, we should ban girls' skirts for not being short enough.kle4 said:In lighter news: 'Stoke school bans skirts for being too short'
The school has received criticism for “stifling” girls’ creativity, but Morris said the girls can express themselves by being “mathematicians, scientists” and writing poetry, not through the length of their skirts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02w72j30 -
2010 and 2015 UK Exit polls were actually rather accurate, especially 2010.tpfkar said:Vaguely on topic, were the Greek exit polls worse than the British ones?
I would have voted OXI if it had come to it, as the plan would have caused great pain without curing the patient, but what an awful 2 options to be presented with.0
