politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

System · June 2015

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

For the Greek people, it appears this tragedy has been going on longer than it took Odysseus reach home after the fall of Troy, but looking at the above tweets, it is looking like that we are approaching the end phase of Grexit. Last night, the Greek Prime Minister indicated he would resign if the Greek’s voted yes in Sunday’s referendum.

Read the full story here

Moses_ · June 2015

The Greek government are stopping the production of taramasalata and humous in order to avoid a double dip recession.

MTimT · June 2015

Moses_ said:
The Greek government are stopping the production of taramasalata and humous in order to avoid a double dip recession.

Shame they forgot to do the same, then, for tzatziki and tahini.

felix · June 2015

"Greek government’s approach indicates they have lost their marbles"

Lol.

Plato · June 2015

Moses_ said:
The Greek government are stopping the production of taramasalata and humous in order to avoid a double dip recession.

welshowl · June 2015

One for TSE: with all these Greek jokes is this a new Punic war?

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

EU Messenger: Choose your next words carefully, Mr. Tsipras. They may be your last as Greek PM.

Alexis Tsipras: [to himself: thinking] "Earth and water"?
[He unsheathes and points his sword at the Messenger's throat]

EU Messenger: Madman! You're a madman!

Alexis Tsipras: Earth and water? You'll find plenty of both down there.[referring to the well]

EU Messenger: No man, German or Greek, no man threatens a messenger!

Alexis Tsipras: You bring the ashes and ruins of conquered economies to Athens' city steps. You insult my wife. You threaten my people with slavery and death! Oh, I've chosen my words carefully, Bankster. Perhaps you should have done the same!

EU Messenger: This is blasphemy! This is madness!

Alexis Tsipras: Madness...? This is SYRIZA!
[He kicks the EU messenger down the well]

Casino_Royale · June 2015

If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.

Disraeli · June 2015

Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.

Casino_Royale · June 2015

I'm tempted to go on a Minotaur of Greece once this is all over.

welshowl · June 2015

Disraeli said:
Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.

Otherwise it'll be total Chios

kle4 · June 2015

Given the length of the financial crisis itself, and the fact that the years of profligacy and economic failures behind the scenes (even if these were not apparent at the time) form part of the overall tragedy, surely this has been going on longer than Odysseus took to reach home? Was that 10 or 20 years?

welshowl · June 2015

kle4 said:
Given the length of the financial crisis itself, and the fact that the years of profligacy and economic failures behind the scenes (even if these were not apparent at the time) form part of the overall tragedy, surely this has been going on longer than Odysseus took to reach home? Was that 10 or 20 years?

Question is: who's been fleeced?

(I must stop)

Plato · June 2015

There'll be the sound of Sirens all over Greece if the banks don't open soon.

welshowl said:

Disraeli said:
Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.
Otherwise it'll be total Chios

Richard_Nabavi · June 2015

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.

No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.

Scott_P · June 2015

@TheEconomist: Mr Tsipras’s foolish call for a referendum have been far more calamitous than he anticipated http://t.co/51iUxVaWzU http://t.co/FTK67Mtmx1

Disraeli · June 2015

BBC Report:
"The Greek finance ministry will reportedly allow 1,000 Greek bank branches to open, but only for use by pensioners who do not have debit cards, that's according to Ta Nea, a Greek website. It says the branches will be open from Wednesday until Friday, and pensioners will be limited to withdrawals of €120 this week. "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-33284560

I guess this doesn't count a "reopening" for the purposes of the above bet?

Casino_Royale · June 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.

I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

The only betting shops open today in Greece are Oracles.

HYUFD · June 2015

Those Greeks really don't Plato their strengths do they?

rcs1000 · June 2015

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.

Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.

DavidL · June 2015

1,000 Greek banks are allegedly opening tomorrow to pay pensions to those who do not have ATM access. Will this count?

OTOH there has to be a real chance many Greek banks will never open their doors again. But, as Homer said in the Odyssey :

"Why cover the same ground again? ... It goes against my grain to repeat a tale told once, and told so clearly.”

welshowl · June 2015

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2015

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.

I think the Greeks are right on one thing: there's no mechanism to chuck them out, even if the other Eurozone countries wanted to do so (which they don't, they'd prefer a face-saving fudge whereby any trigger-pulling is done by Tsipras). Equally it's not clear how technically Greece could voluntarily leave. That's why I'm expecting a de facto Grexit than an immediate formal one.

Of course if the reports of a last-minute deal are right, then maybe they'll avert Grexit even now. They've certainly left it a bit late...

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.

"It's been more than thirty years since the wolf and the winter cold. And now, as then, a beast approaches; patient and confident, savouring the meal to come. This beast is made of men and horses, diktats and regulations. An army of technocrats vast beyond imagining, ready to devour tiny Greece, ready to snuff out the world's one hope for reason and justice. A beast approaches."

williamglenn · June 2015

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.

Politically I don't see how this can happen. After Syriza's repeated assurances that a No vote is not a vote to leave the Euro, if they then tried to impose a new currency it would be more likely to lead to a military coup.

felix · June 2015

welshowl said:

Disraeli said:
Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.
Otherwise it'll be total Chios

Certainly it'll take a Marathon effort to solve this now.

nigel4england · June 2015

DavidL said:
1,000 Greek banks are allegedly opening tomorrow to pay pensions to those who do not have ATM access. Will this count?

OTOH there has to be a real chance many Greek banks will never open their doors again. But, as Homer said in the Odyssey :

"Why cover the same ground again? ... It goes against my grain to repeat a tale told once, and told so clearly.”

Keep calm and drink ouzo.

Absolutely zero chance of Grexit, the EU cannot allow it to happen.

rcs1000 · June 2015

nigel4england said:

DavidL said:
1,000 Greek banks are allegedly opening tomorrow to pay pensions to those who do not have ATM access. Will this count?

OTOH there has to be a real chance many Greek banks will never open their doors again. But, as Homer said in the Odyssey :

"Why cover the same ground again? ... It goes against my grain to repeat a tale told once, and told so clearly.”
Keep calm and drink ouzo.

Absolutely zero chance of Grexit, the EU cannot allow it to happen.

Can I suggest Sir takes a look at three year Greek bonds. They yield something like 50%. And if your forecast is right, that's very easy money.

kle4 · June 2015

Scott_P said:
@TheEconomist: Mr Tsipras’s foolish call for a referendum have been far more calamitous than he anticipated http://t.co/51iUxVaWzU http://t.co/FTK67Mtmx1

I believe in being democratic, but given Tsipras has apparently said he won't stay in government if there is a Yes vote, it seems pretty pointless. Either he should have just said No, claiming he was not willing to compromise on his pre-election promises, or he should have said there was no path for Greece other than to accept and trusted the people would understand. As it is, he's just delayed taking a stance pending a referendum, causing more chaos because it's not clear what will happen, whereas if he'd taken a decision at least it would be.

Speedy · June 2015

nigel4england said:

DavidL said:
1,000 Greek banks are allegedly opening tomorrow to pay pensions to those who do not have ATM access. Will this count?

OTOH there has to be a real chance many Greek banks will never open their doors again. But, as Homer said in the Odyssey :

"Why cover the same ground again? ... It goes against my grain to repeat a tale told once, and told so clearly.”
Keep calm and drink ouzo.

Absolutely zero chance of Grexit, the EU cannot allow it to happen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-30/schaeuble-said-to-see-greece-staying-in-euro-even-if-no-vote-ibjaov8p

He's suddenly keeping his options open in case of NO.

Indigo · June 2015

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.

They also claim that the ECB would be in breach of its legal duty to do everything possible to protect the stability of the Eurozone by cutting off ELA from Greece. This of course conflicts with the prohibition on lending to insolvent countries. How do you manage to get an institution which has conflicting rules of engagement...

Casino_Royale · June 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
I think the Greeks are right on one thing: there's no mechanism to chuck them out, even if the other Eurozone countries wanted to do so (which they don't, they'd prefer a face-saving fudge whereby any trigger-pulling is done by Tsipras). Equally it's not clear how technically Greece could voluntarily leave. That's why I'm expecting a de facto Grexit than an immediate formal one.

Of course if the reports of a last-minute deal are right, then maybe they'll avert Grexit even now. They've certainly left it a bit late...

I wonder if there'll be some sort of deal to tie them over to the referendum. Then, if the Greeks vote yes, as the EU expects they will, then following the formation of a new government, if necessary, the bailout is back in action.

Would the IMF wait a week?

Plato · June 2015

OT Any NFL fans reading this thread? I'm watching the try-outs for the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and knowing nothing about this sport - the auditions are grueling stuff. What's a 50yrd Girl? Is that someone with real star quality?

Frankly, most of the 75 finalists are head and shoulders better than anything I've seen on X-Factor.

For anyone interested, it's a series on ITVBe [the rest of the programming is mostly reality stuff aimed at a female audience].

SimonStClare · June 2015

The banks didn’t close during four hundred years of Turkish rule – bring back the caliphate.

Scott_P · June 2015

@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.

Speedy · June 2015

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.
They also claim that the ECB would be in breach of its legal duty to do everything possible to protect the stability of the Eurozone by cutting off ELA from Greece. This of course conflicts with the prohibition on lending to insolvent countries. How do you manage to get an institution which has conflicting rules of engagement...

You are forgetting that the EU in practice has no rules, the bailouts of death and the admission of half the eurozone members were illegal under the treaties but it never stopped the EU.

rcs1000 · June 2015

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.
Politically I don't see how this can happen. After Syriza's repeated assurances that a No vote is not a vote to leave the Euro, if they then tried to impose a new currency it would be more likely to lead to a military coup.

The banks will run out of Euro notes. There will be no method of paying people. Settling bills, and purchasing oil become impossible.

rcs1000 · June 2015

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.
They also claim that the ECB would be in breach of its legal duty to do everything possible to protect the stability of the Eurozone by cutting off ELA from Greece. This of course conflicts with the prohibition on lending to insolvent countries. How do you manage to get an institution which has conflicting rules of engagement...

Could you find me the line in the ECB's constitution that requires that?

Scott_P · June 2015

Plato said:
OT Any NFL fans reading this thread? I'm watching the try-outs for the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and knowing nothing about this sport - the auditions are grueling stuff. What's a 50yrd Girl? Is that someone with real star quality?

Not a term I am familiar with, but the 50yrd line is the centre of the field, the 'best' and most expensive seats, so I would guess the Cheerleader chosen for that position is regarded as the 'best'

watford30 · June 2015

Scott_P said:
@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.

Ever more desperate. It looks as if they're pleading for assistance now.

rcs1000 · June 2015

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
I think the Greeks are right on one thing: there's no mechanism to chuck them out, even if the other Eurozone countries wanted to do so (which they don't, they'd prefer a face-saving fudge whereby any trigger-pulling is done by Tsipras). Equally it's not clear how technically Greece could voluntarily leave. That's why I'm expecting a de facto Grexit than an immediate formal one.

Of course if the reports of a last-minute deal are right, then maybe they'll avert Grexit even now. They've certainly left it a bit late...
I wonder if there'll be some sort of deal to tie them over to the referendum. Then, if the Greeks vote yes, as the EU expects they will, then following the formation of a new government, if necessary, the bailout is back in action.

Would the IMF wait a week?

I think that is the most likely scenario.

Scott_P · June 2015

@ScottyNational: Greece: Default to IMF by Greece could be avoided after John Swinney uses his formula to calculate Greece has £1000bn in Olive Oil reserves

Indigo · June 2015

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:
@TheEconomist: Mr Tsipras’s foolish call for a referendum have been far more calamitous than he anticipated http://t.co/51iUxVaWzU http://t.co/FTK67Mtmx1
I believe in being democratic, but given Tsipras has apparently said he won't stay in government if there is a Yes vote, it seems pretty pointless. Either he should have just said No, claiming he was not willing to compromise on his pre-election promises, or he should have said there was no path for Greece other than to accept and trusted the people would understand. As it is, he's just delayed taking a stance pending a referendum, causing more chaos because it's not clear what will happen, whereas if he'd taken a decision at least it would be.

I think that is a little ungenerous. He was elected on a platform and having his cake and eating it. He has tried very hard for six months to get that, and has been offered being able to have his cake and eat a tiny bit of it. Its not unreasonable having not got the people what they wanted to ask them which way they want to jump, at least there would be a clear answer and mandate for either austerity or anarchy.

If he recommends NO and the people vote YES then his position is clearly untenable and he would have to go. Either SYRIZA comes up with someone else that thinks they can live with it to run the country, or the government resigns and the old government and their cronies steps back in and accepts the deal. If its a NO, then Tsipras will feel he has been vindicated and will formally pull the plug on the Euro.

williamglenn · June 2015

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.
Politically I don't see how this can happen. After Syriza's repeated assurances that a No vote is not a vote to leave the Euro, if they then tried to impose a new currency it would be more likely to lead to a military coup.
The banks will run out of Euro notes. There will be no method of paying people. Settling bills, and purchasing oil become impossible.

Yes, so the government will lose power and 'adults' will take over and sign a deal with the troika.

Speedy · June 2015

Scott_P said:
@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.

Let's see if Germany rejects a debt restructuring.

Indigo · June 2015

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.
Politically I don't see how this can happen. After Syriza's repeated assurances that a No vote is not a vote to leave the Euro, if they then tried to impose a new currency it would be more likely to lead to a military coup.
The banks will run out of Euro notes. There will be no method of paying people. Settling bills, and purchasing oil become impossible.
Yes, so the government will lose power and 'adults' will take over and sign a deal with the troika.

How democratic of you.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2015

Casino_Royale said:
I wonder if there'll be some sort of deal to tie them over to the referendum. Then, if the Greeks vote yes, as the EU expects they will, then following the formation of a new government, if necessary, the bailout is back in action.

Would the IMF wait a week?

Yes, I think they'll wait for the referendum result.

If it's No, I can't see any possible alternative to a de facto Grexit, probably with some aid payments from the other EU countries to mitigate the worst of the humanitarian crisis which will ensue.

If it's a Yes, then it's a right mess. Presumably Tsipras will indeed resign, and new elections will probably have to be called. I expect the ECB and IMF will provide drip-feed support during the time it takes to get a sane government in place.

If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.

DavidL · June 2015

nigel4england said:

DavidL said:
1,000 Greek banks are allegedly opening tomorrow to pay pensions to those who do not have ATM access. Will this count?

OTOH there has to be a real chance many Greek banks will never open their doors again. But, as Homer said in the Odyssey :

"Why cover the same ground again? ... It goes against my grain to repeat a tale told once, and told so clearly.”
Keep calm and drink ouzo.

Absolutely zero chance of Grexit, the EU cannot allow it to happen.

As I said yesterday night it depends on your terms. Effectively Greece ceases being a member of the EZ tonight with no access to liquidity or drawing rights from the ECB. They have had no market access for bonds for some time so effectively they will have lost the ability to borrow. But of course the Euro will still be their official currency.

As Robert has pointed out it will ultimately be their decision whether they wish to issue a new currency and change their laws to allow that. Until they make that decision they might claim to still be members of the EZ. How long they can defer that decision will depend upon how many euros remain in circulation in Greece but the economic damage in terms of interruption of trade etc is already incalculable.

These people are insane. Will the public sector wages be paid today? I doubt it.

Disraeli · June 2015

felix said:

welshowl said:

Disraeli said:
Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.
Otherwise it'll be total Chios
Certainly it'll take a Marathon effort to solve this now.

*Snickers*

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

DavidL said:

These people are insane. Will the public sector wages be paid today? I doubt it.

Richard_Nabavi said:

If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.

Madness....? This is SYRIZA!

kle4 · June 2015

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:
@TheEconomist: Mr Tsipras’s foolish call for a referendum have been far more calamitous than he anticipated http://t.co/51iUxVaWzU http://t.co/FTK67Mtmx1
I believe in being democratic, but given Tsipras has apparently said he won't stay in government if there is a Yes vote, it seems pretty pointless. Either he should have just said No, claiming he was not willing to compromise on his pre-election promises, or he should have said there was no path for Greece other than to accept and trusted the people would understand. As it is, he's just delayed taking a stance pending a referendum, causing more chaos because it's not clear what will happen, whereas if he'd taken a decision at least it would be.
I think that is a little ungenerous. He was elected on a platform and having his cake and eating it. He has tried very hard for six months to get that, and has been offered being able to have his cake and eat a tiny bit of it. Its not unreasonable having not got the people what they wanted to ask them which way they want to jump, at least there would be a clear answer and mandate for either austerity or anarchy.

If he recommends NO and the people vote YES then his position is clearly untenable and he would have to go. Either SYRIZA comes up with someone else that thinks they can live with it to run the country, or the government resigns and the old government and their cronies steps back in and accepts the deal. If its a NO, then Tsipras will feel he has been vindicated and will formally pull the plug on the Euro.

I take the point that if the only option is to do something which is against what he promised, asking the people what they want to do is not intrinsically unreasonable, however it does feel like sometimes you have to accept political will is not enough and you have to take the hard decisions, and his rhetoric against those he's been negotiating with has seemed to have had the purpose of escalating matters while trying to avoid any blame for escalating things by then dumping the choice on the people, who have been asked often enough what they want to do, but seem unable to accept they cannot get all of what they want sometimes, and a politician needs to tell them that.

Scott_P · June 2015

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:
@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.
Let's see if Germany rejects a debt restructuring.

@Reuters: BREAKING: Merkel says there will be no new developments on #Greece today: source

Indigo · June 2015

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.
I suspect you're right, and that's why I'm not convinced, but all the media narrative so far has led us to believe that Grexit is more or less instant from the second they default and impose capital controls.

Clearly, it isn't quite that simple. No one wants to pull the trigger unless and until there's absolutely no alternative.
Grexit, ultimately, must be triggered by the Greeks printing their own currency. If the Greek banks cannot open, then the government will not have much choice.

This is why the AEP story about the Greek preparing a legal challenge to being kicked out of the Euro is so much guff; it will be the Greek government which puts the gun in its mouth and pulls the trigger.
They also claim that the ECB would be in breach of its legal duty to do everything possible to protect the stability of the Eurozone by cutting off ELA from Greece. This of course conflicts with the prohibition on lending to insolvent countries. How do you manage to get an institution which has conflicting rules of engagement...
Could you find me the line in the ECB's constitution that requires that?

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/tasks/stability/html/index.en.html I assume, but I am not a banker (as my bank balance will attest

)

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

felix said:

welshowl said:

Disraeli said:
Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.
Otherwise it'll be total Chios
Certainly it'll take a Marathon effort to solve this now.

Rat Thrace!

DavidL · June 2015

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DavidL said:

These people are insane. Will the public sector wages be paid today? I doubt it.

Richard_Nabavi said:

If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.
Madness....? This is SYRIZA!

Is it something to do with a name starting with "s" or is that just a coincidence.

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

The Rhodes to Nowhere?

williamglenn · June 2015

Scott_P said:

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:
@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.
Let's see if Germany rejects a debt restructuring.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Merkel says there will be no new developments on #Greece today: source

If the referendum was just a device to ensure that the negotiations would go right up to the last minute before the payment deadline then Merkel can't be seen to throw in the kitchen sink today.

felix · June 2015

Scott_P said:
@ScottyNational: Greece: Default to IMF by Greece could be avoided after John Swinney uses his formula to calculate Greece has £1000bn in Olive Oil reserves

Wow! what ever will popeye say to olive oil saving the Greeks.?

welshowl · June 2015

Plato said:
OT Any NFL fans reading this thread? I'm watching the try-outs for the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and knowing nothing about this sport - the auditions are grueling stuff. What's a 50yrd Girl? Is that someone with real star quality?

Frankly, most of the 75 finalists are head and shoulders better than anything I've seen on X-Factor.

For anyone interested, it's a series on ITVBe [the rest of the programming is mostly reality stuff aimed at a female audience].

I would've thought the "try outs for the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders" would've appealed to a predominantly male audience?

felix · June 2015

Disraeli said:

felix said:

welshowl said:

Disraeli said:
Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.
Otherwise it'll be total Chios
Certainly it'll take a Marathon effort to solve this now.
*Snickers*

they're all just nuts if you ask me.

Sandpit · June 2015

What a massive f..... mess, and getting more so by the hour it seems!
I don't dare bet on anything to do with Greece, as everyone involved seems determined to use convoluted language to avoid certain terms or phrases.
Reports today that banks may be open Weds or Thurs to enable pensions to be collected, just another example of saying one thing but doing the opposite.

Plato · June 2015

Well... I thought that may appeal to some PBers *cough*

Superb eye candy in tight short shorts...

welshowl said:

Plato said:
OT Any NFL fans reading this thread? I'm watching the try-outs for the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and knowing nothing about this sport - the auditions are grueling stuff. What's a 50yrd Girl? Is that someone with real star quality?

Frankly, most of the 75 finalists are head and shoulders better than anything I've seen on X-Factor.

For anyone interested, it's a series on ITVBe [the rest of the programming is mostly reality stuff aimed at a female audience].
I would've thought the "try outs for the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders" would've appealed to a predominantly male audience?

welshowl · June 2015

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:
@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.
Let's see if Germany rejects a debt restructuring.

Sort of an "Entschuldigung". They'll be sorry....

Plato · June 2015

And Topical.

felix said:

Disraeli said:

felix said:

welshowl said:

Disraeli said:
Unconfirmed rumours that the Greeks have found some cash in the attica.
A thrace-saving deal may be possible.
Otherwise it'll be total Chios
Certainly it'll take a Marathon effort to solve this now.
*Snickers*
they're all just nuts if you ask me.

Indigo · June 2015

kle4 said:

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:
@TheEconomist: Mr Tsipras’s foolish call for a referendum have been far more calamitous than he anticipated http://t.co/51iUxVaWzU http://t.co/FTK67Mtmx1
I believe in being democratic, but given Tsipras has apparently said he won't stay in government if there is a Yes vote, it seems pretty pointless. Either he should have just said No, claiming he was not willing to compromise on his pre-election promises, or he should have said there was no path for Greece other than to accept and trusted the people would understand. As it is, he's just delayed taking a stance pending a referendum, causing more chaos because it's not clear what will happen, whereas if he'd taken a decision at least it would be.
I think that is a little ungenerous. He was elected on a platform and having his cake and eating it. He has tried very hard for six months to get that, and has been offered being able to have his cake and eat a tiny bit of it. Its not unreasonable having not got the people what they wanted to ask them which way they want to jump, at least there would be a clear answer and mandate for either austerity or anarchy.

If he recommends NO and the people vote YES then his position is clearly untenable and he would have to go. Either SYRIZA comes up with someone else that thinks they can live with it to run the country, or the government resigns and the old government and their cronies steps back in and accepts the deal. If its a NO, then Tsipras will feel he has been vindicated and will formally pull the plug on the Euro.
I take the point that if the only option is to do something which is against what he promised, asking the people what they want to do is not intrinsically unreasonable, however it does feel like sometimes you have to accept political will is not enough and you have to take the hard decisions, and his rhetoric against those he's been negotiating with has seemed to have had the purpose of escalating matters while trying to avoid any blame for escalating things by then dumping the choice on the people, who have been asked often enough what they want to do, but seem unable to accept they cannot get all of what they want sometimes, and a politician needs to tell them that.

I think that is what the referendum is. Its saying they can't have their cake and eat it, so they have to chose whether they want to eat or not, with the understand that if they eat it, they wont still have a cake. I am of course hoping there is no "have cake and eat it" option on the referendum, otherwise it will no doubt get the most votes!

Speedy · June 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
I wonder if there'll be some sort of deal to tie them over to the referendum. Then, if the Greeks vote yes, as the EU expects they will, then following the formation of a new government, if necessary, the bailout is back in action.

Would the IMF wait a week?
Yes, I think they'll wait for the referendum result.

If it's No, I can't see any possible alternative to a de facto Grexit, probably with some aid payments from the other EU countries to mitigate the worst of the humanitarian crisis which will ensue.

If it's a Yes, then it's a right mess. Presumably Tsipras will indeed resign, and new elections will probably have to be called. I expect the ECB and IMF will provide drip-feed support during the time it takes to get a sane government in place.

If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.

If a sane government takes over in Greece by past performance there won't any greek economy left when they finish their job.
The fundamental problem is the eurozone membership can't be sustained but for ideological reasons no one is willing to address it, unfortunately the greeks have not voted for a government insane enough to leave the eurozone in an orderly manner so the crisis still goes on.

So the crisis goes on and on regardless of how many bailouts or reforms because they refuse to address the fundamental issue of currency, Greece suffers predominantly from a monetary crisis and no reform can address a severely overvalued currency.
And the crisis simply makes reformists unpopular because the reforms fail to deliver results since the currency issue is not resolved.

In short as Deng Xiaoping said "white cats, black cats, it doesn't matter as long as it catches mice" when it came to capitalism and communism, the reforms and the euro are white cats but don't catch mice.

DavidL · June 2015

williamglenn said:

Scott_P said:

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:
@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.
Let's see if Germany rejects a debt restructuring.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Merkel says there will be no new developments on #Greece today: source
If the referendum was just a device to ensure that the negotiations would go right up to the last minute before the payment deadline then Merkel can't be seen to throw in the kitchen sink today.

She would need the approval of the Bundestag. That is not going to happen today.

Pulpstar · June 2015

Greece needs to both leave the Eurozone and drastically cut it's spending.

Syriza proposes neither.

dr_spyn · June 2015

A drop in the Aegean Sea, Greek epic fail.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33326534

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

Pulpstar said:
Greece needs to both leave the Eurozone and drastically cut it's spending.

Syriza proposes neither.

"Then we will fight in the shade!"

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

Scott_P said:

Speedy said:

Scott_P said:
@Reuters: BREAKING: Greek government proposes two-year deal with ESM to cover financial needs with parallel restructuring of debt.
Let's see if Germany rejects a debt restructuring.
@Reuters: BREAKING: Merkel says there will be no new developments on #Greece today: source
If the referendum was just a device to ensure that the negotiations would go right up to the last minute before the payment deadline then Merkel can't be seen to throw in the kitchen sink today.
She would need the approval of the Bundestag. That is not going to happen today.

Tsipras = Leonidas
Merkel = Xerxes

Casino_Royale · June 2015

Scott_P said:
@ScottyNational: Greece: Default to IMF by Greece could be avoided after John Swinney uses his formula to calculate Greece has £1000bn in Olive Oil reserves

Or it would have except the evil colonialist UK government has plundered it all for London.

Speedy · June 2015

Pulpstar said:
Greece needs to both leave the Eurozone and drastically cut it's spending.

Syriza proposes neither.

And there is no political party in Greece that proposes both.
Hence the crisis goes on and on.
Greece lacks a euroskeptic right.

DavidL · June 2015

At the risk of setting off EUphobes once more there is talk that Tsipris may be getting on a plane to Brussels to meet the EU "half way". Geography was never my strong point but....

Further rumours that his clothing has been specified as sackcloth and ashes only with no shoes are unconfirmed at this time.

Casino_Royale · June 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
I wonder if there'll be some sort of deal to tie them over to the referendum. Then, if the Greeks vote yes, as the EU expects they will, then following the formation of a new government, if necessary, the bailout is back in action.

Would the IMF wait a week?
Yes, I think they'll wait for the referendum result.

If it's No, I can't see any possible alternative to a de facto Grexit, probably with some aid payments from the other EU countries to mitigate the worst of the humanitarian crisis which will ensue.

If it's a Yes, then it's a right mess. Presumably Tsipras will indeed resign, and new elections will probably have to be called. I expect the ECB and IMF will provide drip-feed support during the time it takes to get a sane government in place.

If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.

That makes sense. The Greek government are clearly feeling pretty clever in executing some sort of complex game theory, which they think will work.

But the rest of the world may decide they're just not playing and walk away from the table.

Scott_P · June 2015

@lindayueh: Greece asks for new 3rd bailout programme from EZ rescue fund ESM to last 2 years & include debt relief/restructuring http://t.co/3jW4RI90HA

Moses_ · June 2015

Went for a meal at a Greek restaurant last night. Afterwards when the waitress brought over the bill I said,

"Feck off............ we'll pay you at the end of the month .............. Maybe?"

Barnesian · June 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
If there's no deal by midnight, Greece will be in default as well as having imposed capital controls.

Does that mean it'll be chucked out the euro tomorrow?

I'm not convinced.
No, it won't work like that. They'll drift for a bit in increasing crisis, and then finally get round to printing a parallel currency and using that to pay pensions and state-sector salaries, whilst at the same time nicking any Euro deposits remaining in banks to pay for the most desperately urgent imports. I expect they'll claim this is a temporary measure and that they're not really leaving the Eurozone. The EU will be happy to go along with this fiction, which will gradually come to be seen as permanent.

In other words, a goddam mess, pretty much the worst of all the bad options on offer.

I think Greek imports are about E60b and exports are about E40b so they have a E20b trade gap in round figures. But their tourist trade is about E50b in hard currency so they should be able to easily bridge that gap (as long as they stop paying back their debt).

I agree they could print a parallel currency (Euro IOUs) to pay pensions and state-sector salaries and suppliers to the public sector and use real Euros for their imports. I think this could go on for a long time until they eventually get their house in order. They will still be in the Eurozone (no legal mechanism for kicking them out) but printing their own money for internal use. This would be a good solution.

blackburn63 · June 2015

Another nail in the coffin for the lefties and people who flog stuff at austerity marches.

MarkHopkins · June 2015

Moses_ said:
Went for a meal at a Greek restaurant last night. Afterwards when the waitress brought over the bill I said,

"Feck off............ we'll pay you at the end of the month .............. Maybe?"

When they asked for a tip: did you tell them to leave the Euro?

SimonStClare · June 2015

Scott_P said:
@lindayueh: Greece asks for new 3rd bailout programme from EZ rescue fund ESM to last 2 years & include debt relief/restructuring http://t.co/3jW4RI90HA

Syriza has woken up to the enormity of the situation – we’ve reached the grovelling stage?

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

Both ancient and modern writers have used the Battle of Thermopylae as an example of the power of a patriotic army defending its native soil. The performance of the defenders at the Battle of Thermopylae is also used as an example of the advantages of training, equipment, and good use of terrain as force multipliers and has become a symbol of courage against overwhelming odds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Thermopylae

Sunil_Prasannan · June 2015

Moses_ said:
Went for a meal at a Greek restaurant last night. Afterwards when the waitress brought over the bill I said,

"Feck off............ we'll pay you at the end of the month .............. Maybe?"

Was it properly Kos-ted?

kle4 · June 2015

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:
@TheEconomist: Mr Tsipras’s foolish call for a referendum have been far more calamitous than he anticipated http://t.co/51iUxVaWzU http://t.co/FTK67Mtmx1
I believe in being democratic, but given Tsipras has apparently said he won't stay in government if there is a Yes vote, it seems pretty pointless. Either he should have just said No, claiming he was not willing to compromise on his pre-election promises, or he should have said there was no path for Greece other than to accept and trusted the people would understand. As it is, he's just delayed taking a stance pending a referendum, causing more chaos because it's not clear what will happen, whereas if he'd taken a decision at least it would be.
I think that is a little ungenerous. He was elected on a platform and having his cake and eating it. He has tried very hard for six months to get that, and has been offered being able to have his cake and eat a tiny bit of it. Its not unreasonable having not got the people what they wanted to ask them which way they want to jump, at least there would be a clear answer and mandate for either austerity or anarchy.

If he recommends NO and the people vote YES then his position is clearly untenable and he would have to go. Either SYRIZA comes up with someone else that thinks they can live with it to run the country, or the government resigns and the old government and their cronies steps back in and accepts the deal. If its a NO, then Tsipras will feel he has been vindicated and will formally pull the plug on the Euro.
I take the point that if the only option is to do something which is against what he promised, asking the people what they want to do is not intrinsically unreasonable, however it does feel like sometimes you have to accept political will is not enough and you have to take the hard decisions, and his rhetoric against those he's been negotiating with has seemed to have had the purpose of escalating matters while trying to avoid any blame for escalating things by then dumping the choice on the people, who have been asked often enough what they want to do, but seem unable to accept they cannot get all of what they want sometimes, and a politician needs to tell them that.
I think that is what the referendum is. Its saying they can't have their cake and eat it, so they have to chose whether they want to eat or not, with the understand that if they eat it, they wont still have a cake. I am of course hoping there is no "have cake and eat it" option on the referendum, otherwise it will no doubt get the most votes!

Maybe you're right, although some of the vox pop from Greece seemed to suggest some think the ref is just still part of the same have cake and eat strategy. Well see

Moses_ · June 2015

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:
@lindayueh: Greece asks for new 3rd bailout programme from EZ rescue fund ESM to last 2 years & include debt relief/restructuring http://t.co/3jW4RI90HA
Syriza has woken up to the enormity of the situation – we’ve reached the grovelling stage?

With a firmly aimed kick a Greek urn moves two years down the road. Meanwhile everyone gets back on the chariot.

Barnesian · June 2015

I'm following the Betfair market on Grexit this year.

The odds are currently 11/4 against an exit this year, and odds of 1/3 on them staying in the Eurozone. £350K has been bet so far.

The rules state:

"This market will be settled as 'Yes' if Greece has left the Eurozone and is using an alternative official currency other than the Eurozone's official currency by 31st December 2015. This market will be settled as 'No' if Greece has not left the Eurozone or is still using the Eurozone's currency as at 31st December 2015."

This is a little ambiguous as "Yes" requires Greece to be using an alternative official currency AND to have left the Eurozone. There isn't a clear definition of what "leaving the Eurozone" means so I'm a little nervous of betting in this market.

welshowl · June 2015

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:
I wonder if there'll be some sort of deal to tie them over to the referendum. Then, if the Greeks vote yes, as the EU expects they will, then following the formation of a new government, if necessary, the bailout is back in action.

Would the IMF wait a week?
Yes, I think they'll wait for the referendum result.

If it's No, I can't see any possible alternative to a de facto Grexit, probably with some aid payments from the other EU countries to mitigate the worst of the humanitarian crisis which will ensue.

If it's a Yes, then it's a right mess. Presumably Tsipras will indeed resign, and new elections will probably have to be called. I expect the ECB and IMF will provide drip-feed support during the time it takes to get a sane government in place.

If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.
That makes sense. The Greek government are clearly feeling pretty clever in executing some sort of complex game theory, which they think will work.

But the rest of the world may decide they're just not playing and walk away from the table.

That is the real danger for the Greeks. There's a limit on a human level as to how many meetings and weekends in Brussels you can drag Messers Schaeuble, Dijsselbloem etc to without deeply cheesing them off personally, and filling them with dread that even should a rescue be successful it'll only mean they're all back here in December and on and on beyond that. The signals have been there for a week or so that the others might just not be taking Syriza seriously anymore in which case Game Theory won't count for much as only one side will be playing.

welshowl · June 2015

Moses_ said:

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:
@lindayueh: Greece asks for new 3rd bailout programme from EZ rescue fund ESM to last 2 years & include debt relief/restructuring http://t.co/3jW4RI90HA
Syriza has woken up to the enormity of the situation – we’ve reached the grovelling stage?
With a firmly aimed kick a Greek urn moves two years down the road. Meanwhile everyone gets back on the chariot.

I suppose the old joke about "what's a Greek urn? - about 2000 Drachma a week" has never been more appropriate?

Disraeli · June 2015

"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it.

The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics."

Thomas Sowell

For the EU "project" economics has to fit the politics.

That's where they go worong.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2015

Ivan Massow: Conservatives to host open primaries for 2016 London mayoral election

http://www.cityam.com/219113/tories-host-open-primaries-2016-mayoral-election

williamglenn · June 2015

Richard_Nabavi said:
Ivan Massow: Conservatives to host open primaries for 2016 London mayoral election

http://www.cityam.com/219113/tories-host-open-primaries-2016-mayoral-election

The online ballot will be done under an alternate voting system, in which votes for losing candidates are redistributed.

AV threads galore.

TOPPING · June 2015

Disraeli said:
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it.

The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics."

Thomas Sowell

For the EU "project" economics has to fit the politics.

That's where they go worong.

following on from his excellent post earlier on, it really doesn't seem to have occurred to people in continental Europe, as @Welshowl so acutely noted, to examine or even consider what monetary union would mean in terms of sovereignty.

Morris_Dancer · June 2015

Good afternoon, my fellow Myrmidons.

Saw on the Sky ticker that the Greek government may issue a new two year proposal shortly. We'll see.

DavidL · June 2015

welshowl said:

Moses_ said:

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:
@lindayueh: Greece asks for new 3rd bailout programme from EZ rescue fund ESM to last 2 years & include debt relief/restructuring http://t.co/3jW4RI90HA
Syriza has woken up to the enormity of the situation – we’ve reached the grovelling stage?
With a firmly aimed kick a Greek urn moves two years down the road. Meanwhile everyone gets back on the chariot.
I suppose the old joke about "what's a Greek urn? - about 2000 Drachma a week" has never been more appropriate?

The real problem is not what they urn but what they pay tax on.

Scott_P · June 2015

@bbclaurak: Eurogroup teleconference at 5pm to discuss Greece's proposals

HYUFD · June 2015

Chris Christie just formally announced his 2016 presidential election campaign in email to supporters, expected at his old school later for first rally
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chris-christie-announces-2016-presidential-campaign/story?id=32125633

Any Republicans not running for president?

SimonStClare · June 2015

Euro finance ministers conference call tonight

Newsflash: eurozone finance ministers are going to speak in three and a half hours to discuss Greece’s request for a third bailout. - They are due to speak at 6pm BST, or 8pm Athens time.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem @J_Dijsselbloem

Extraordinary Eurogroup teleconference tonight 19:00 Brussels time to discuss official request of Greek government received this afternoon
3:30 PM - 30 Jun 2015

kle4 · June 2015

SimonStClare said:
Euro finance ministers conference call tonight

Newsflash: eurozone finance ministers are going to speak in three and a half hours to discuss Greece’s request for a third bailout. - They are due to speak at 6pm BST, or 8pm Athens time.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem @J_Dijsselbloem

Extraordinary Eurogroup teleconference tonight 19:00 Brussels time to discuss official request of Greek government received this afternoon
3:30 PM - 30 Jun 2015

Sounds like crisis averted for a little while longer then. Thanks for the excitement though, Greece .

HYUFD · June 2015

For Mortimer (who last night asked when I would first post something negative on Burnham) here it is. He has just announced he would end charitable status for private schools, something I disagree with as that status funds scholarships and bursaries for those who cannot afford the fees. However Yougov had 56% of voters backing ending private schools charitable status, 22% opposing so it probably won't do him any harm electorally, as ending assisted places did not harm Blair (something I also opposed)
Mr Burnham also pledged, if he were to become prime minister, a guaranteed university place for young people apprenticeship at the end of their schooling career.
https://www.politicshome.com/education/articles/story/andy-burnham-i-would-end-private-schools-charitable-status
http://www.ucu.org.uk/index.cfm?articleid=4195#2100

Scott_P · June 2015

@lindayueh: Important how affects #ECB #ELA MT @Reuters BREAKING: Merkel told lawmakers Germany cannot consult on a new proposal before Greek referendum

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