Felix I never said Burnham would win a landslide, the best he can probably hope for is a majority of about 20-40 and that would depend on everything going right for him ie Labour winning back most of those who voted for Blair in 2005 and then switched to Cameron in 2010-2015, Labour winning back some seats from the SNP in Scotland and some Tories switching to UKIP post EU ref.
But you've gone on and on and on about it. Who cares? Why not focus on the now for a while?
Western Europe is filled with reasonably successful, rich countries whose economies are not in meltdown because they are independent, whose banks do not automagically fail because they are independent, who are not denied access to international capital markets because they are independent, who are not incapable of managing their public finances because they are independent and are not unable to survive despite having their own or shared currencies.
This is true. However, as others have pointed out, there are a few rather significant differences between Luxembourg and Wales.
Having said that, I do actually agree with part of your main point, at least as regards Scotland (Wales is a different kettle of Laverbread). Of course you are speaking unmitigated garbage in your claim that Scotland is not being subsidised by England, but I believe it is true that an independent Scotland could be really quite prosperous, after a suitable and rather painful period of Thatcherite readjustment. To do that, it would need to wean itself off its benefit-culture dependency, sort out its dire school system, and rediscover the old Scottish virtues of sound money, hard work, and entrepreneurship - virtues which meant that Scots played such an important part in the British Empire. Even now, Scotland retains a very good university system, an excellent legal system, and quite a diverse economy (it's not all oil and welfare). They'd have to find a coherent answer to the currency question, of course, but that's not impossible provided they are realistic and self-reliant.
Public health isn't good enough here. It's a disaster. It's not much better in England either.
felix The for now is the Labour leadership contest, in which Burnham leads in polls of both voters as a whole and Labour voters, unless and until that changes he remains Labour's best prospect for leader in terms of winning the next election
G-live blog: - Half of Fleet Street have decamped to Athens, adding a new terror to the Greek debt crisis. - (the other half are running rival Greek crisis liveblogs)
The FT’s Henry Foy reports that tonight’s Yes protest is pretty civilised:
Henry Foy✔@HenryJFoy -#Athens proEU rally listening to impassioned, long speech. Men in smart shirts applaud awkwardly. Less natural energy than antiEU rally yday
If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.
Madness....? This is SYRIZA!
Once again a perfectly good thread is polluted by Plato's TV nonsense and Sunil's endless repetition of unfunny movie quotes.
I'm sure you're both lovely people, but this is a great site. Please don't ruin it.
I guess you're new here. We have a glorious tradition of keeping about six balls in the air on any one thread. And at any moment, someone can start a seventh, usually on the Punic Wars. We seem to have coped with this format for years and years. Some may even think it gets us through the dispiriting thought of trying to find a winner amongst Labour's leadership hopefuls....
Gets worse during cricket season. Plenty a highbrow thread interspersed with the latest developments in Ireland versus the West Indies.
I have to admit to being in two minds - I wish there was more actual betting discussion - the relentless focus on the logic of odds, of quantified probabilities, is the site's USP.
But below the line, the PB hive-mind is incredibly diverse. I think it would be difficult to shoe-horn everyone into a single, coherent conversation. Some of the chatter reduces the signal-to-noise ratio, but you can learn to scan a thread - even a multithreaded one! If there are people who you don't think add anything, there is always Edmund's widget (if it still works, and someone can furnish a link...).
What keeps drawing me back to PB, aside from the sheer usefulness of being able to ask a question on pretty much anything and getting an informed answer, is that it reminds me of the ambience in a really good pub. You can just let the conversation flow, or you can cut in as and where it suits you, and aside from the bad tempered threads it usually strikes an excellent, captivating, and in internet terms, incredibly rare, balance between informative and entertaining. Which is much to the credit of the PB commentariat but particularly to the attention of OGH, the other regular contributors and editors, and especially to the moderation team.
If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.
Madness....? This is SYRIZA!
Once again a perfectly good thread is polluted by Plato's TV nonsense and Sunil's endless repetition of unfunny movie quotes.
I'm sure you're both lovely people, but this is a great site. Please don't ruin it.
I guess you're new here. We have a glorious tradition of keeping about six balls in the air on any one thread. And at any moment, someone can start a seventh, usually on the Punic Wars. We seem to have coped with this format for years and years. Some may even think it gets us through the dispiriting thought of trying to find a winner amongst Labour's leadership hopefuls....
Gets worse during cricket season. Plenty a highbrow thread interspersed with the latest developments in Ireland versus the West Indies.
I have to admit to being in two minds - I wish there was more actual betting discussion - the relentless focus on the logic of odds, of quantified probabilities, is the site's USP.
But below the line, the PB hive-mind is incredibly diverse. I think it would be difficult to shoe-horn everyone into a single, coherent conversation. Some of the chatter reduces the signal-to-noise ratio, but you can learn to scan a thread - even a multithreaded one! If there are people who you don't think add anything, there is always Edmund's widget (if it still works, and someone can furnish a link...).
What keeps drawing me back to PB, aside from the sheer usefulness of being able to ask a question on pretty much anything and getting an informed answer, is that it reminds me of the ambience in a really good pub. You can just let the conversation flow, or you can cut in as and where it suits you, and aside from the bad tempered threads it usually strikes an excellent, captivating, and in internet terms, incredibly rare, balance between informative and entertaining. Which is much to the credit of the PB commentariat but particularly to the attention of OGH, the other regular contributors and editors, and especially to the moderation team.
If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.
Madness....? This is SYRIZA!
Once again a perfectly good thread is polluted by Plato's TV nonsense and Sunil's endless repetition of unfunny movie quotes.
I'm sure you're both lovely people, but this is a great site. Please don't ruin it.
I guess you're new here. We have a glorious tradition of keeping about six balls in the air on any one thread. And at any moment, someone can start a seventh, usually on the Punic Wars. We seem to have coped with this format for years and years. Some may even think it gets us through the dispiriting thought of trying to find a winner amongst Labour's leadership hopefuls....
Gets worse during cricket season. Plenty a highbrow thread interspersed with the latest developments in Ireland versus the West Indies.
I have to admit to being in two minds - I wish there was more actual betting discussion - the relentless focus on the logic of odds, of quantified probabilities, is the site's USP.
But below the line, the PB hive-mind is incredibly diverse. I think it would be difficult to shoe-horn everyone into a single, coherent conversation. Some of the chatter reduces the signal-to-noise ratio, but you can learn to scan a thread - even a multithreaded one! If there are people who you don't think add anything, there is always Edmund's widget (if it still works, and someone can furnish a link...).
What keeps drawing me back to PB, aside from the sheer usefulness of being able to ask a question on pretty much anything and getting an informed answer, is that it reminds me of the ambience in a really good pub. You can just let the conversation flow, or you can cut in as and where it suits you, and aside from the bad tempered threads it usually strikes an excellent, captivating, and in internet terms, incredibly rare, balance between informative and entertaining. Which is much to the credit of the PB commentariat but particularly to the attention of OGH, the other regular contributors and editors, and especially to the moderation team.
tick
Seconded. Moments like this are where PB sorely misses the like button.
If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.
Madness....? This is SYRIZA!
Once again a perfectly good thread is polluted by Plato's TV nonsense and Sunil's endless repetition of unfunny movie quotes.
I'm sure you're both lovely people, but this is a great site. Please don't ruin it.
I guess you're new here. We have a glorious tradition of keeping about six balls in the air on any one thread. And at any moment, someone can start a seventh, usually on the Punic Wars. We seem to have coped with this format for years and years. Some may even think it gets us through the dispiriting thought of trying to find a winner amongst Labour's leadership hopefuls....
Gets worse during cricket season. Plenty a highbrow thread interspersed with the latest developments in Ireland versus the West Indies.
I have to admit to being in two minds - I wish there was more actual betting discussion - the relentless focus on the logic of odds, of quantified probabilities, is the site's USP.
But below the line, the PB hive-mind is incredibly diverse. I think it would be difficult to shoe-horn everyone into a single, coherent conversation. Some of the chatter reduces the signal-to-noise ratio, but you can learn to scan a thread - even a multithreaded one! If there are people who you don't think add anything, there is always Edmund's widget (if it still works, and someone can furnish a link...).
What keeps drawing me back to PB, aside from the sheer usefulness of being able to ask a question on pretty much anything and getting an informed answer, is that it reminds me of the ambience in a really good pub. You can just let the conversation flow, or you can cut in as and where it suits you, and aside from the bad tempered threads it usually strikes an excellent, captivating, and in internet terms, incredibly rare, balance between informative and entertaining. Which is much to the credit of the PB commentariat but particularly to the attention of OGH, the other regular contributors and editors, and especially to the moderation team.
@SpiegelPeter: Finland FM @alexstubb tweets no extension to #Greece bailout. Follow-on programme to be discussed thru "normal procedures" (meaning later).
If the Greeks can't get a sane government in place, then I have no further suggestions.
Madness....? This is SYRIZA!
Once again a perfectly good thread is polluted by Plato's TV nonsense and Sunil's endless repetition of unfunny movie quotes.
I'm sure you're both lovely people, but this is a great site. Please don't ruin it.
I guess you're new here. We have a glorious tradition of keeping about six balls in the air on any one thread. And at any moment, someone can start a seventh, usually on the Punic Wars. We seem to have coped with this format for years and years. Some may even think it gets us through the dispiriting thought of trying to find a winner amongst Labour's leadership hopefuls....
Gets worse during cricket season. Plenty a highbrow thread interspersed with the latest developments in Ireland versus the West Indies.
I have to admit to being in two minds - I wish there was more actual betting discussion - the relentless focus on the logic of odds, of quantified probabilities, is the site's USP.
But below the line, the PB hive-mind is incredibly diverse. I think it would be difficult to shoe-horn everyone into a single, coherent conversation. Some of the chatter reduces the signal-to-noise ratio, but you can learn to scan a thread - even a multithreaded one! If there are people who you don't think add anything, there is always Edmund's widget (if it still works, and someone can furnish a link...).
What keeps drawing me back to PB, aside from the sheer usefulness of being able to ask a question on pretty much anything and getting an informed answer, is that it reminds me of the ambience in a really good pub. You can just let the conversation flow, or you can cut in as and where it suits you, and aside from the bad tempered threads it usually strikes an excellent, captivating, and in internet terms, incredibly rare, balance between informative and entertaining. Which is much to the credit of the PB commentariat but particularly to the attention of OGH, the other regular contributors and editors, and especially to the moderation team.
tick
Seconded. Moments like this are where PB sorely misses the like button.
'Blimey, today’s ‘fontastic’ begging letter simply explains that it is seeking more funding to cover debt that expires between 2015 and 2017. And that, according to this letter is over €29bn'
Can't pay what is due to-day, can't pay what is due over the next two years, wants another 29bn and the EU is in serious discussions with them.
A highly unusual MBE TV recommendation. "Keys to the Castle" was an award-winning BBC2 documentary from last year about an aging couple, relics of a bygone era, living in a Scottish castle in the highlands. They are finally facing up to the fact they are going to have to sell up and move out - to a retirement destination they charmingly call a "horizontal house". It's a bit poignant but the castle is gorgeous, proper property porn gold, and the couple are wonderful. The wife, who has essentially had to take charge in recent years, is just made for TV - all marbles thoroughly switched on, and as candid as she is eccentric. The pace of revelations is well-structured and I found the whole thing very moving. It's been repeated on BBC4 recently so has re-emerged on iplayer.
Or, if you would rather spend 40 minutes geeking out, this is brilliant. It's a US Navy guide to analogue fire control computers, back in the day before it was done electronically. There were mechanical computers installed in fighting ships as early as World War One, but this film dates from the 1950s when such mechanical systems had reached the peak of their complexity - the idea is that you don't aim your shells straight at the target, since you need to account for your ship's course, that of your opponent, the wind speed, and you also need to set your gun at the right angle for your shell to traverse the correct range.
I particularly enjoyed the mechanical integrators and multipliers used in the final third of the film.
According to Jeffries, the ECB is likely to pull the plug on all ELS to Greek banks first thing tomorrow morning, which will cause them all to become insolvent.
For various reasons, I am not convinced this is true.
They need to build both. Starting yesterday. With a connection between them.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago.
My favourite airport statistic is that Dubai's new and huge Terminal 3 was built in the same time as Heathrow T5's planning enquiry - both being a new building on an existing airport site, quite similar projects. There's no reason it should have taken so long for us to talk about building it, except that no-one wanted to be accountable for making the decision. The British are becoming experts at procrastination, whereas elsewhere in the world they JFDI!
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago. .
I used to be quite NIMBY sympathetic, until I attended a few planning inquiries. Now. I'm instinctively in favour of most develops big or small, unless there's some really good reasons not to be, rather than starting from a position of skepticism.
They need to build both. Starting yesterday. With a connection between them.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago.
My favourite airport statistic is that Dubai's new and huge Terminal 3 was built in the same time as Heathrow T5's planning enquiry - both being a new building on an existing airport site, quite similar projects. There's no reason it should have taken so long for us to talk about building it, except that no-one wanted to be accountable for making the decision. The British are becoming experts at procrastination, whereas elsewhere in the world they JFDI!
I'm not sure how much democratic oversight there is Dubai, mind...
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago. .
I used to be quite NIMBY sympathetic, until I attended a few planning inquiries. Now. I'm instinctively in favour of most develops big or small, unless there's some really good reasons not to be, rather than starting from a position of skepticism.
What about Boris Island? That wouldn't be putting anyone out.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago. .
I used to be quite NIMBY sympathetic, until I attended a few planning inquiries. Now. I'm instinctively in favour of most develops big or small, unless there's some really good reasons not to be, rather than starting from a position of skepticism.
What about Boris Island? That wouldn't be putting anyone out.
I confess on this particular issue I do not feel I know enough to taken even a gut view, merely that it's taken far too long to make a decision already.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago. .
I used to be quite NIMBY sympathetic, until I attended a few planning inquiries. Now. I'm instinctively in favour of most develops big or small, unless there's some really good reasons not to be, rather than starting from a position of skepticism.
What about Boris Island? That wouldn't be putting anyone out.
I confess on this particular issue I do not feel I know enough to taken even a gut view, merely that it's taken far too long to make a decision already.
Me neither (despite the constant advertising by rival camps in The Spectator). But my feeling is that powerful vested interests are pushing for Heathrow and that therefore Heathrow it will be, regardless of there being other, more creative and better solutions.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago. .
I used to be quite NIMBY sympathetic, until I attended a few planning inquiries. Now. I'm instinctively in favour of most develops big or small, unless there's some really good reasons not to be, rather than starting from a position of skepticism.
What about Boris Island? That wouldn't be putting anyone out.
I confess on this particular issue I do not feel I know enough to taken even a gut view, merely that it's taken far too long to make a decision already.
Me neither (despite the constant advertising by rival camps in The Spectator). But my feeling is that powerful vested interests are pushing for Heathrow and that therefore Heathrow it will be, regardless of there being other, more creative and better solutions.
I seem to get Gatwick ads wherever I go, so I'm inclined to go against them in retaliation for the irritation. I trust the government will also be taking the decision based on who has irritated them the least, but that seems a tight call.
They need to build both. Starting yesterday. With a connection between them.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago.
My favourite airport statistic is that Dubai's new and huge Terminal 3 was built in the same time as Heathrow T5's planning enquiry - both being a new building on an existing airport site, quite similar projects. There's no reason it should have taken so long for us to talk about building it, except that no-one wanted to be accountable for making the decision. The British are becoming experts at procrastination, whereas elsewhere in the world they JFDI!
I'm not sure how much democratic oversight there is Dubai, mind...
Very true, but they are now the new competition for long distance air travel. The 'locals' in places like DXB understand the need for expanding infrastructure and are well compensated for their property if it is in the way of the latest and greatest new project. Closer to home Amsterdam opened a new runway a few years back. They have six there now!
Why did we spend four years having an enquiry about a new building on the existing airport site, it's completely bonkers? It took 20 years from the idea to the opening of T5. By the time the new runway is open (wherever they build it) we will need another one! We should pay out a 50% uplift to everyone relocated by major projects, and stop the professional NIMBYs who complain about one project after another from being anywhere near the process at all.
@bbclaurak: Hints out of Eurogroup that Greeks ready to call off referendum or recommend Yes vote if new deal can be done tmrw
Quelle surprise, a lot of hot air and brinkmanship to probably result in a fudged deal which almost certainly won't address core issues and won't be met anyway, but they'll agree to pretend they will if it gets footage of Greeks queuing at bank machines off the tv screens for 5 minutes.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago. .
I used to be quite NIMBY sympathetic, until I attended a few planning inquiries. Now. I'm instinctively in favour of most develops big or small, unless there's some really good reasons not to be, rather than starting from a position of skepticism.
What about Boris Island? That wouldn't be putting anyone out.
The concept of BI is a good one, taking a clean site rather than trying to expand the existing one. Problems would be: 1. Construction timescale - 15-20 years 2. Birds in the estuary - aeroplane engines don't like them too much. 3. Transport links to the airport, especially from W London and M3/M4 corridor, much of which relys on LHR being where it is. 4. LHR would have to close and be sold off to make the maths work on the cost - positives and negatives on that one. 5. The curve ball - USS Montgomery, a partially sunken WWII battleship packed with explosives, conveniently resting close to the proposed site. 6. Our archaic planning problems alluded to earlier, meaning it would take a decade for all the public enquiries to take place. 7. Cost - about 100Bn, would have to be underwritten by govt.
A great idea, but a non-starter as far as the current need for a new runway goes. Maybe if they'd started on it 20 years ago it might have had legs as a proposal. The only way it could still be in play is in conjunction with a Gatwick expansion, with both starting now.
Thanks for the link. :-) I started watching and after 10 minutes of sheer enjoyment, I bookmarked the link for watching at a date when I can really appreciate it properly.
Comments
If he does win, the security guards should double search Nicola's handbag to make sure Salmond's saltire doesn't get another airing.
#knickerlessSturgeon
EDIT: International diplomacy via the medium of notes passed in the playground...
The FT’s Henry Foy reports that tonight’s Yes protest is pretty civilised:
Henry Foy✔@HenryJFoy -#Athens proEU rally listening to impassioned, long speech. Men in smart shirts applaud awkwardly. Less natural energy than antiEU rally yday
I have to admit to being in two minds - I wish there was more actual betting discussion - the relentless focus on the logic of odds, of quantified probabilities, is the site's USP.
But below the line, the PB hive-mind is incredibly diverse. I think it would be difficult to shoe-horn everyone into a single, coherent conversation. Some of the chatter reduces the signal-to-noise ratio, but you can learn to scan a thread - even a multithreaded one! If there are people who you don't think add anything, there is always Edmund's widget (if it still works, and someone can furnish a link...).
What keeps drawing me back to PB, aside from the sheer usefulness of being able to ask a question on pretty much anything and getting an informed answer, is that it reminds me of the ambience in a really good pub. You can just let the conversation flow, or you can cut in as and where it suits you, and aside from the bad tempered threads it usually strikes an excellent, captivating, and in internet terms, incredibly rare, balance between informative and entertaining. Which is much to the credit of the PB commentariat but particularly to the attention of OGH, the other regular contributors and editors, and especially to the moderation team.
'Blimey, today’s ‘fontastic’ begging letter simply explains that it is seeking more funding to cover debt that expires between 2015 and 2017. And that, according to this letter is over €29bn'
Can't pay what is due to-day, can't pay what is due over the next two years, wants another 29bn and the EU is in serious discussions with them.
Hope Cameron is watching.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01nnztr
Or, if you would rather spend 40 minutes geeking out, this is brilliant. It's a US Navy guide to analogue fire control computers, back in the day before it was done electronically. There were mechanical computers installed in fighting ships as early as World War One, but this film dates from the 1950s when such mechanical systems had reached the peak of their complexity - the idea is that you don't aim your shells straight at the target, since you need to account for your ship's course, that of your opponent, the wind speed, and you also need to set your gun at the right angle for your shell to traverse the correct range.
I particularly enjoyed the mechanical integrators and multipliers used in the final third of the film.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOwKh9XLO1c
When was the last time Tim was right, about anything?
@PickardJE: Industry/Westminster awash with rumours that Davies Commission will favour Heathrow http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42f537d2-1f44-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz3eToG2jIg but keep door open for Gatwick
For various reasons, I am not convinced this is true.
Britain is crap at making decisions on infrastructure, this should have been done at least a decade ago.
My favourite airport statistic is that Dubai's new and huge Terminal 3 was built in the same time as Heathrow T5's planning enquiry - both being a new building on an existing airport site, quite similar projects. There's no reason it should have taken so long for us to talk about building it, except that no-one wanted to be accountable for making the decision. The British are becoming experts at procrastination, whereas elsewhere in the world they JFDI!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11708740/Sexy-MPs-website-is-most-popular-banned-website-at-Parliament.html
Good showing for the Blues there, and a surprise entry at number four!
Closer to home Amsterdam opened a new runway a few years back. They have six there now!
Why did we spend four years having an enquiry about a new building on the existing airport site, it's completely bonkers? It took 20 years from the idea to the opening of T5. By the time the new runway is open (wherever they build it) we will need another one! We should pay out a 50% uplift to everyone relocated by major projects, and stop the professional NIMBYs who complain about one project after another from being anywhere near the process at all.
New Thread
1. Construction timescale - 15-20 years
2. Birds in the estuary - aeroplane engines don't like them too much.
3. Transport links to the airport, especially from W London and M3/M4 corridor, much of which relys on LHR being where it is.
4. LHR would have to close and be sold off to make the maths work on the cost - positives and negatives on that one.
5. The curve ball - USS Montgomery, a partially sunken WWII battleship packed with explosives, conveniently resting close to the proposed site.
6. Our archaic planning problems alluded to earlier, meaning it would take a decade for all the public enquiries to take place.
7. Cost - about 100Bn, would have to be underwritten by govt.
A great idea, but a non-starter as far as the current need for a new runway goes. Maybe if they'd started on it 20 years ago it might have had legs as a proposal. The only way it could still be in play is in conjunction with a Gatwick expansion, with both starting now.
I started watching and after 10 minutes of sheer enjoyment, I bookmarked the link for watching at a date when I can really appreciate it properly.