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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the economic case for Scottish Independence was weakene
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the economic case for Scottish Independence was weakened in the last week
The top table (table 5) is taken from the Scottish Government’s white paper on independence published in late 2013, whilst the bottom table (table 1) is from the Scottish Government’s Oil & Gas bulletin published last week. As the Guardian notes
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No, the Scots won't - but the Nats would.
Can the Supreme Court be held to be acting ultra vires and if so by whom ? Can parliament declare itself supreme and ignore the ruling of the Supreme Court and go ahead anyway. Sounds like a constitutional crisis to me.
Others vigourously and repeatedly subtract from it.....
It will be interesting to see how this is countered. But I'm not expecting Kavanagh QC.
Put simply, enough of Brown's electoral coalition decided that Ed was Crap that he should never be prime minister. They either weren't bothered at the prospect of a Cameron government or actively thought it the best option seriously available.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3143297/Cameron-tells-BBC-stop-using-Islamic-State-barbarous-terror-group-threatening-British-way-life.html
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/06/ed-miliband-changed-labour-party-way-we-dont-yet-fully-appreciate
By contrast, at work, the vast majority of my colleagues are project managers, contract managers and engineers working in the infrastructure sector. They live in the suburbs or home counties and are homeowners. More likely to be on linkedIN than Facebook; the average age is well over 50. Almost to a man, and they were almost all men, they were absolutely horrified at the prospect of an Ed Miliband government.
The difference is: the latter group voted.
Edit: looking at those comments, and usual caveats apply, DM readers don't seem too impressed by Mr. Cameron on this
Not sure what he thinks the first two letters of ISIL actually stand for... "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant", so he is calling it the Islamic State as well. It is so typical of the sort of PR bullshit he seems to enjoy
I was also impressed at how well the Conservatives did in Hampstead & Kilburn.
There have been repeated attacks by Swinney and others on the OBR figures over the last year claiming them to have been politically motivated. Now, when they are not going to be subject to scrutiny in the Scottish Parliament, the Scottish Government has finally come into line.
During the latter stages of the Indyref the most common posters explained how there would be an extra £1000 or more for every man, woman and child in Scotland in the event of independence. I have no doubt such ludicrous claims swung many votes. I can confirm that from my own canvassing; it was something frequently brought up on the doorstep.
It is hard to work out if the SNP are more delusional or dishonest. I would like to think that as the financial consequences of FFA sink home and become real the bubble will finally burst. But who knows? They are impervious to reason.
Critiquing what others say or do and mandating a minute's silence is easy.
Tackling the problems at source and offering real leadership is hard.
As this lifeline support from Scotland dries up I suppose this will mean those of us in rUk will shortly be restricted to a limit at the cash points of only 60 quid a time?
maybe he's aiming for Caliphate Under Nationalist Trans Syria or something
From yesterday's thread, surely the easiest way to get the reduction in MPs to 600 through is to link it to their forthcoming pay rise?
There is nothing a Scottish administration can do about the oil price which is causing major problems as far apart as Russia and Venezuela but Scotland desperately needs a generation of politicians who are not obsessed with constitutional matters like the last 2 have been.
We have an over large and unreformed public sector where far too little attention has been given to boosting productivity. Our education system is failing badly. The Curriculum for Excellence program has been a bureaucratic disaster and there is accumulating evidence that it is damaging outcomes for our children.
The College sector has been devastated to pay for the "no fees" commitment for University students. The consequence of this is that approximately 4x as much is spent subsidising each Scottish student at University compared with those at college. When you consider the typical class make up of each segment this is yet another failure against the poor in our society: failed by sink schools that the Scottish government refuses to address (no "failing schools" or special measures here) and then failed again by a tertiary education system that is biased against them.
These failures have long term consequences for our productivity and future wealth. They scream out for attention. But lets talk about more Scottish powers instead.
First off, I missed it yesterday, but that was a great diagram by Martin Baxter on the matter of where voters went.
On-topic: I haven't been this astounded since I noticed the sun had risen this morning.
Win win.
*takes cover*
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/33291701
Lots of it is a bit obvious, but what struck me was the suggestion Ricciardo might be Ferrari's choice. It does go on to mention the rather obvious potential drawback (with Vettel). Good to see Hulkenberg may get an opportunity if they don't go for the Aussie.
Secondly, I do think there is a real opportunity for a quicker and stronger LD revival than most people expect. It would be helped by electing Lamb as leader and Labour failing to elect Kendall, and both look distinctly possible at the moment.
Edit: looking at those comments, and usual caveats apply, DM readers don't seem too impressed by Mr. Cameron on this
Didn't really want to mention it, but I listened to the R4 interview and I thought it was a bit of a car crash for the PM. It was the "over earnest Dave" that turned up.
No.
Seems like his poor showing is a result of his difficulty in handling his own front end grip. Whereas his team mate seems to handle it very well.... His own front end I mean....
And last time it was his rear end that went wild.
My friends in counter-terrorism call them Da'ish. For the reasons, this from 'The Week' is helpful:
"The name Daesh, according to France24, is a "loose acronym" for "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham). The name is commonly used by enemies of ISIS, and it also has many negative undertones, as Daesh sounds similar to the Arabic words Daes ("one who crushes something underfoot") and Dahes ("one who sows discord")."
"The name Daesh, according to France24, is a "loose acronym" for "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham). The name is commonly used by enemies of ISIS, and it also has many negative undertones, as Daesh sounds similar to the Arabic words Daes ("one who crushes something underfoot") and Dahes ("one who sows discord")."
Very interesting, I was wondering why they were being called Daesh by others in the region.
I comment on the Guardian blog in favour of voting NO and against the unelected Euro technocrats (and for Greece deferring paying it debts for a few decades and staying in the Euro with a dual currency).
But I am very much in favour of a reformed EU and will be voting YES in the UK Euro referendum.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-32719678
"The number of people out of work in Scotland climbed by 19,000 to 168,000 in the first quarter of the year, according to official figures.
Office for National Statistics data showed an unemployment rate of 6%, compared with 5.5% for the whole of the UK.
UK unemployment fell by 35,000 between January and March to 1.83 million.
Employment in Scotland went down by 3,000 over the three months, and now stands at 2,622,000."
"The name Daesh, according to France24, is a "loose acronym" for "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham). The name is commonly used by enemies of ISIS, and it also has many negative undertones, as Daesh sounds similar to the Arabic words Daes ("one who crushes something underfoot") and Dahes ("one who sows discord")."
That sounds like an enemy alien race from Star Trek: The Next Generation.
Edit: looking at those comments, and usual caveats apply, DM readers don't seem too impressed by Mr. Cameron on this
The BBC insist on calling it Islamic State. I complained to the BBC about a month ago but have not received a reply. I hope David Cameron has better luck at getting them to stop giving ISIL statelike credibility.
I know ISIL is short for Islamic State of Iraq and Levant but most people don't know that. ISIL sounds like a shiny brand of toilet paper.
Scotland gets about 20% more public spending per person than the UK average - so if Osborne wants to save billions off the welfare budget he'd be well advised to start in Scotland. Give them Full Fiscal Autonomy right now.
I'm undecided at present - I await the offer.
This is a bit like saying don't use "United Kingdom" instead of "UKGBU" (United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ulster) (Not that the latter is used) - but the comparison stands; because we're "Not united".
Language does matter, but, for the reason you point out, Cameron's plea does not make sense.
I would like to see the prinicple of subsidiarity more robustly applied with countries able to red card unwarranted central inteference. I would like to see the same principle applied within the UK. I would also like to see a major reduction in waste and buraucracy in the EU (and the UK).
However, when the referendum is held. I don't think the reforms will be clear. I will still vote YES. I am an optimist.
There is only one case for independence and that is the "Braveheart" case.
An independent Scotland will face all kinds of economic challenges but if it's what you want, you will put up with it all because you will have thrown off the oppressive yoke of your colonial masters.
It is of course as you say the lying that is slightly irritating but you know what they say about omelettes and in the scheme of things (a strong, independent Scotland in a few dozen years), it really makes no odds.
People who point to this projected deficit or that, are missing the point. As, I suppose, are those such as the SNP who say it doesn't matter for the people of Scotland today and their living conditions.
Values trump any fundamental economics debate in politics these days.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_408451.pdf
Main points
• UK Gross Domestic Product in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between
Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, revised up 0.1 percentage points
from the previous estimate of GDP published 28 May 2015.
• GDP was estimated to have increased by 3.0% in 2014, compared with 2013, revised up 0.2
percentage points from the previously published estimate.
• Between Quarter 1 2014 and Quarter 1 2015, GDP in volume terms increased by 2.9%, revised
up 0.5 percentage points from the previously published estimate.
Exclusively on the opposition benches mind you.
It must be so confusing for them.
The problem with all large organisations is the central bureaucracy that bloats and accumulates unaccountable power. In a large public company, the non-execs on behalf of the shareholders (ie national leaders on behalf of their electorate) will instruct the CEO to sort it out PDQ or be fired. The technocrats who run the EU (and the IMF) should occasionally be fired to show who is in charge.
I do think that Cameron has an opportunity, together with other national leaders, to make a really big improvement to how the EU operates. I just hope he isn't small minded and UK tactical with an eye on his back benchers. He needs to provide leadership within Europe.
As I said, I am an optimist.
http://news.sky.com/story/1452113/salmond-reveals-plans-to-lock-out-tories
"Scotland's former First Minister said his party would vote as a block against Tory policy in a bid to trigger a vote of no confidence."
This post sponsored by NewsSense™
The best way to get a promotion in a bureaucracy, whether or not it is supposedly a profit-making outfit, is to be the only person in the room who understands what you're saying.
Double Cheltenham Gold Cup & five-time King George VI Chase winner #KautoStar put down after suffering injuries to his pelvis & neck in fall
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-06-30/legendary-racehorse-kauto-star-put-down-after-fall/
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the conditions that surround him. The unreasonable man adapts surrounding conditions to himself. All progress depends on the unreasonable man."
- George Bernard Shaw
The other analogy is the UK Civil Service - particularly the Treasury, the Foreign Office and MOD which each have a very strong culture with a lot of power which transcends elected governments. They need very firm handling with the occasional firing of the Permanent Secretary.
I think the unelected officials in the EU should be under a lot more pressure (their job on the line) to sort things out in favour of what national goverments want. I'm deeply unimpressed by many of the current top EU officials (and by Lagarde who has plummeted in my estimation).