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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Tim

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  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    An intriguing prospect - Paywall

    "...Last week Labour’s union link prevented progress on party funding. Nick Clegg pulled the plug on further high-level talks because, while all parties favour a cap on donations, Labour cannot possibly accept a cap of about £50,000 per donation, as the others would, when it has already relied on more than £8m from Unite alone since Miliband’s election.

    In the meantime the Conservatives hope Falkirk will spur the Lib Dems into helping them take tactical advantage in amendments to the trade union section of the lobbying bill going through parliament. Rather than union members opting to contribute to a political fund, which the barons then donate to Labour, they want each member to tick off which party their money should to go to. Windfalls to all except Labour would probably follow; by Unite’s own reckoning fewer than half its members actually vote for the party..."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Plato cited the Telegraph as saying, inter alia,

    "The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here."

    I wonder if it's just that there are fewer evil b*****ds from UK in Spain than is generally supposed!

    As I understand it, the real issue is the way that the legal systems work.

    In many continental countries it's common practice to arrest and hold someone in prison (especially if they are from abroad) while the investigation is ongoing. In the UK it's much more common to bail to return.

    As a result you end up with a lot of Brits being sent to a foreign prison under the EAW even when the evidence against them is very weak - and then ultimately released without charge, but clearly with their lives having been significantly disrupted
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ...either he's arrested (could this be overruled? I would guess yes) and sent over to Latveria, or he isn't, and Scotland looks to be bad Europeans (but good Britons, which of course matters more).

    Surely being a good person is far more important than being a good Scot, good European or good Yookayer. Law is, after all, an ethical and moral field, where group identity must very much be subservient to our common humanity. Have you read the Merchant of Venice recently?

    Technically speaking, law has nothing to do with ethics, morals or justice. It has to do with the implementation of legislation. But that's really a first year philosophy paper...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    To say Rentoul has given up on EdM presumes that he'd ever started with him in the first place.


    antifrank said:

    John Rentoul, however, seems to have completely given up on Ed Miliband:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/sorry-ed-its-too-late-to-say-youre-no-union-man-8692531.html

    The most interesting thing in a fairly routine Blairite piece is the quote from an unnamed shadow Cabinet minister. The Blairites are desperately unhappy right now.

    Have you given up on Ed yet ? .... There is still time to repent Mike and come in from the cold, accept the vast insight of my ARSE and thus enjoy the beneficence of my most august organ.

    Better an old Bedford sinner recants than slips into the fiery flames of Miliband's devastating electoral crash and burn !!

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Was it when Scotland beat a post world cup winning England?

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    As I have said on here before this is seriously tricky for the tories. If they choose to opt in to these measures that itself may well trigger the need for a referendum on the basis that it is passing powers to Brussels. And the time limit for them making their mind up expires before the election.

    It is a great shame for Alistair Darling that his 'No' campaign's success or failure is largely dependent on the UK political cycle, which is completely out of sync with the Scottish one, and completely outwith his control. This causes both predictable (eg. your point above) and unpredictable (eg. Falkirk) problems for Darling's campaign.

    The Tories blowing up over Europe any time before September 2014 would suit me just fine. And I am an optimist.
    It's just dawned on me that the optimum time for the independence referendum would have been Autumn 2016. (think what happened 50 years earlier)
    Alan, enlighten us, apart from Kilmarnock being Champions and Celtic winning the Cup I am lost, Willie Ross would have been SOS
    That was 1967, I presume he was referring to the diddy cup England won in 1966
  • adversarial vs inquisitorial legal systems?
    Charles said:

    Plato cited the Telegraph as saying, inter alia,

    "The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here."

    I wonder if it's just that there are fewer evil b*****ds from UK in Spain than is generally supposed!

    As I understand it, the real issue is the way that the legal systems work.

    In many continental countries it's common practice to arrest and hold someone in prison (especially if they are from abroad) while the investigation is ongoing. In the UK it's much more common to bail to return.

    As a result you end up with a lot of Brits being sent to a foreign prison under the EAW even when the evidence against them is very weak - and then ultimately released without charge, but clearly with their lives having been significantly disrupted
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Harriet Harman is a class act.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It's a big win for May, no doubt about that. It will do her a power of good among the potential Tory voter base, but will make no difference elsewhere.

    I suspect it will help with UKIP voters as well.

    Laura Norda is a popular topic.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Plato cited the Telegraph as saying, inter alia,

    "The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here."

    I wonder if it's just that there are fewer evil b*****ds from UK in Spain than is generally supposed!

    Isn't it more the case that we are sending people back to 26 countries? If we send back 100 to each member state, we would need to get back 2601 to show a net gain.

    The figures on the EAW are seriously distorted by Poland who drive everyone else (the Germans in particular) nuts by demanding the return of people guilty of extremely trivial crimes (eg not paying a small balance of tax) at considerable cost to the other countries. This has given rise to quite a lot of cases arguing whether the basis of the warrant was even a crime in this country.

    It appears under their constitution the Poles do not have the same discretion not to pursue cases that is commonplace elsewhere.

    Seems a very silly reason to consider pulling out of a scheme that makes it much easier to get our hands on alleged offenders living in other EU member states.

    The issues with the EAW are that people can be deported without there being a prima facie case against them, and that trial procedures in some other EU states are pretty primitive.

    Got it - so the idea is that we keep hold of more people accused of committing crimes in other EU member states. Hopefully, they won't offend here.
    Sean's point is different to the one (deeply bonkers) one I mentioned upthread, and if the premise is right I'm sure the conclusion is. At the very least, there must be some point at which a justice system is bad enough that you shouldn't extradite someone to it, at least without a lot of extra scrutiny.

    Yes, that is a fair point. But I am not sure that it is the one we will hear ministers citing when we look to withdraw - especially as the effects of withdrawal will be that we are more likely to become a place of refuge for those who are accused of committing crimes in any EU member state.

    Right, I doubt they'll opt out. Or rather, if they opt out, they'll then opt back in. Tough on Europe AND tough on foreign criminals!

    PS The right way to deal with countries with dodgy justice systems would be for the rest of the EU to kick them out until they fix it, rather than the countries with good justice systems opting out. That should help incentivize those countries to clean up their act.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?
    ALLEGED criminals EiT. There's a big difference.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?

    It's the kind of gallery playing that could well end up doing more harm than good if not properly thought through - see UK universities and their increasing struggle to attract top class talent because of visa restrictions.
    SO you keep repeating this, but from my experience it as *absolutely not true*.

    I sit on the finance committee of one of the major London universities. Our foreign student numbers are actually up significantly on previous years. It's the domestic students that have fallen following the increases in fees and the reduction in sponsorship by employers (we are a postgrad school)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound
    Today's winning political headline goes to @DavidWooding's subs with 'UNITEMARE'

    and she's on a roll

    Tim Shipman (Mail) @ShippersUnbound
    Theresa May says government will reduce the number of appeals in immigration cases in Bill this year

    PoliticsHome @politicshome
    Theresa May says there will be changes in the Immigration Bill to deal with the Right to the Family Life in Human Rights Act. #marr
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Can anyone explain the maths in this piece: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10164859/IMF-to-change-tune-on-UK-economy-and-raise-growth-forecast.html

    Specifically:
    "If the economy expanded by 0.3pc in every quarter this year, the annual rate of growth would be 0.8pc, he calculated. If it grew by 0.5pc for the remaining three quarters, annual growth would be 1.1pc."

    If the economy grew 0.3% for each quarter from the previous quarter it seems to me that the overall rate of increase would be fractionally more than 1.2% because Q4 would be 0.3% of a bigger base than existed in Q1. I don't understand how it can be less.

    Presumably these sorts of calculations are underlying why growth forecasts have not increased in line with quarterly projections. I had thought that if Q2 was 0.6% then the economy would have grown 0.9% in the first half. Apparently not.

    I haven't checked the maths, but assume it's Y-o-Y growth stated on a quarterly basis rather than Q-o-Q.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    edited July 2013
    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?

    It's the kind of gallery playing that could well end up doing more harm than good if not properly thought through - see UK universities and their increasing struggle to attract top class talent because of visa restrictions.
    SO you keep repeating this, but from my experience it as *absolutely not true*.

    I sit on the finance committee of one of the major London universities. Our foreign student numbers are actually up significantly on previous years. It's the domestic students that have fallen following the increases in fees and the reduction in sponsorship by employers (we are a postgrad school)

    And I cover this area as a part of my job. The number of applications to come to the UK from top quality PhD students and researchers is declining. They are a key demographic for our on-going competitiveness and ability to innovate.

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The trade unions who are affiliated and details of what industries they represent are:

    ASLEF - Associated Society of Locomotive Engineers - (railways – drivers, operational supervisors and staff)

    BECTU - Broadcasting, Entertainment, Cinematograph and Theatre Union - (broadcasting, film, video, theatre, cinema and related sectors)

    BFAWU - Bakers, Food and Allied Workers Union - (food)

    COMMUNITY - (industries in and around steel, metal and textile communities)

    CWU - Communication Workers Union - (post and telecommunications)

    GMB - Britain’s General Union - (general workers in public and private sectors)

    MU - Musicians Union - (performers, writers and teachers in the music industry)

    NACODS - National Association of Colliery Overmen, Deputies and Shotfirers - (mining)

    NUM - National Union of Mineworkers - (mining)

    TSSA - Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association - (railways, London Underground, travel, haulage, shipping)

    UCATT - Union of Construction, Allied Trades and Technicians - (construction and building)

    UNISON - The Public Service Union - (for all those providing services to the public whether employed in the public, private or voluntary sectors)

    UNITE - (general workers in public and private sectors)

    UNITY - (ceramics industry)

    USDAW - Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied USDAW Workers - (retail, distributive and related industries)

    GFTU – GFTU is the federation for specialist unions and its members include BECTU, BFAWU, COMMUNITY, MU, NACODS & UNITY.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/tulo
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed has swiftly and decisively decided to do almost nothing at all about Unite influence

    @BBCNormanS: What reforms is Ed M going to announce re unions ? Sounds like the spending cap is it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    Observer editorial

    "...The privileging of unions in the Labour party constitution could be justified at the party's birth in 1900 when socialist thinkers believed that the party was the political wing of a labour movement that would transform capitalism and in practical terms needed all the financial help it could get. But now it locks trade unionists such as McCluskey into a mindset that the union interest can best be advanced by entryism into the Labour party. It paints trade unionism not as the friend of ordinary working people who want better wages and conditions but, rather, as a partisan bureaucratic machine. Outside the public sector, union membership is a trivial 14% of the workforce..."

    I actually wonder whether it is in the *union's* best interest to be affiliated to one party.

    Let's say they get a little more influence with the Labour party as a result of affiliation and Labour is in power half the time. But the cost is they have (presumably) much weaker links to the Tories.

    So net net, they probably have less influence over the whole cycle.

    Wouldn't it make more sense for them to be independent actors, working to advance their members' interests with all political parties? One would assume that the Tories would be more favourably inclined if the unions weren't affiliated to Labour, and Labour is likely to share a common mindset in any event
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?
    ALLEGED criminals EiT. There's a big difference.
    You can't believe that we never get it wrong, Charles. At either accusatory or conviction level. I wonder what the numbers of "innocent British holiday makers" held in Cypriot/Greek/Spanish jails actually are.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges
    Harriet Harman had better only be revealing 1% of what Ed plans to say later this week, or Labour is toast.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Financier said:

    @OldKingCole

    JaguarLandRover is wholly owned by TATA which is an Indian company. Also they own CORUS Steel in the UK and Holland and are very big investors in both JLR and CORUS.

    The Sunday Times story is that Unite the union is involved in a dispute that threatens to halt all production at the UK's most successful export company

    As ever, the Newssense™ prediction is that this will be great news for Ed
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I must say that the deliberate panto going on between Labour and UNITE is marvellous - and to think its all been conjured up to make EdM look strong.

    Len is a real gent to play along like this. Everyone is falling for it ;^ )
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato said:

    I must say that the deliberate panto going on between Labour and UNITE is marvellous - and to think its all been conjured up to make EdM look strong.

    It's working!

    Has Ed Miliband been a strong or weak leader of his party?
    Strong: 10(-6) LAB: 22
    Weak: 47(+10) LAB: 26
    Neither: 29(-8) LAB: 44
    DK: 14(+4) LAB: 8

    Oh, wait...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?

    It's the kind of gallery playing that could well end up doing more harm than good if not properly thought through - see UK universities and their increasing struggle to attract top class talent because of visa restrictions.
    SO you keep repeating this, but from my experience it as *absolutely not true*.

    I sit on the finance committee of one of the major London universities. Our foreign student numbers are actually up significantly on previous years. It's the domestic students that have fallen following the increases in fees and the reduction in sponsorship by employers (we are a postgrad school)

    I suggest you go and read the leaked letter from Cameron's Private Secretary on this, spelling out the damage Dave thinks his migration pledge is doing to the further education sector as a whole.
    But, as you know, my post was about *universities*.

    I have no issue with shrinking low valued-added parts of the further education sector.

    The UK is a middle sized country. We need to focus on value added / premium segments rather than just volume (especially where we have under-invested infrastructure)

    But why don't you post a link to this leaked letter anyway, since you put so much store by it.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    John Rentoul does point out some uncomfortable truths about words vs deeds. I assume it was his Zen or is it Buddha like calm...

    "Ed Miliband should have seen this trouble coming. Indeed, he did. Having won the Labour leadership by a trade-union ramp against party members and MPs, he knew he had to prove he was not the unions' creature.

    Thus one of his spin doctors, Tom Baldwin, briefed the newspapers before the 2011 Labour conference to say that Miliband would announce rule changes to cut the trades unions' 50 per cent share of the vote at conferences in future. Only it never happened.

    A few days later, we were told Ed Miliband would be proposing "the biggest change to the party's structures for 20 years", but the plan now consisted of signing up a new category of "registered supporters". The idea was that, if more than 50,000 signed up nationally, they would be given a tiny share of the vote in leadership elections. This would dilute union influence, but hardly at all, and it would equally infinitesimally dilute the influence of party members and MPs. There are still two web pages where you can sign up, but nothing has been heard of the scheme since.

    That was Miliband's attempt to anticipate the inevitable attack on him for being in hock to the sectional interests of the unions, the two biggest, Unite and the GMB, in particular. A failed attempt, two years ago, to dilute the grip of the unions on Labour Party policy. He was thinking of returning to the question at this year's annual conference, with some kind of defiant declaration of independence, but now it is too late. A routine shenanigans over the selection of a Labour candidate to replace Eric "Street Fighting Man" Joyce in Falkirk caught up with him..." http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/sorry-ed-its-too-late-to-say-youre-no-union-man-8692531.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?

    It's the kind of gallery playing that could well end up doing more harm than good if not properly thought through - see UK universities and their increasing struggle to attract top class talent because of visa restrictions.
    SO you keep repeating this, but from my experience it as *absolutely not true*.

    I sit on the finance committee of one of the major London universities. Our foreign student numbers are actually up significantly on previous years. It's the domestic students that have fallen following the increases in fees and the reduction in sponsorship by employers (we are a postgrad school)

    And I cover this area as a part of my job. The number of applications to come to the UK from top quality PhD students and researchers is declining. They are a key demographic for our on-going competitiveness and ability to innovate.

    Interesting - I can only cite my experience (which is PhD / MA students and researchers) - school is focused on public health and tropical medicine so has a very strong African/Asian focus
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    The commentators on left and right are throwing down the gauntlet for Miliband. Big issue for him; will it die or grow over the summer?

    Who writes the script anyway? This issue flares up just before the summer recess, so Labour types go away gloomy and Tories leave with their tails up. And next week there is David Miliband on the Andrew Marr Show...!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2013

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?
    ALLEGED criminals EiT. There's a big difference.
    You can't believe that we never get it wrong, Charles. At either accusatory or conviction level. I wonder what the numbers of "innocent British holiday makers" held in Cypriot/Greek/Spanish jails actually are.

    Of the sub-sample written up in the Daily Mail probably close to 100% (or at least based on the information they share with their readers) ;-)

    For me the issue is more the early stage of the EAW - before the investigation happens. FWIU (not an expert) in many of these cases an Italian or Greek or whatever would be bailed, but because the UK citizen is a foreign citizen they are held in prison to avoid absconding.

    I'd rather just have the EAW kick in at the point when the authorities are ready to charge, that's all.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Christopher Hope @christopherhope
    Asked if Len McCluskey and Labour leader Ed Miliband are on a 'collision course' over Falkirk John Reid tells #murnaghan: "Yes."
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    From an unemotional POV, I agree completely - but I just can't see it ever happening without serious tears before bedtime. If the LDs and Tories can play the Lobbying Bill to achieve this, I think in the long run it'd be a lot healthier for all concerned.
    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    Observer editorial

    "...The privileging of unions in the Labour party constitution could be justified at the party's birth in 1900 when socialist thinkers believed that the party was the political wing of a labour movement that would transform capitalism and in practical terms needed all the financial help it could get. But now it locks trade unionists such as McCluskey into a mindset that the union interest can best be advanced by entryism into the Labour party. It paints trade unionism not as the friend of ordinary working people who want better wages and conditions but, rather, as a partisan bureaucratic machine. Outside the public sector, union membership is a trivial 14% of the workforce..."

    I actually wonder whether it is in the *union's* best interest to be affiliated to one party.

    Let's say they get a little more influence with the Labour party as a result of affiliation and Labour is in power half the time. But the cost is they have (presumably) much weaker links to the Tories.

    So net net, they probably have less influence over the whole cycle.

    Wouldn't it make more sense for them to be independent actors, working to advance their members' interests with all political parties? One would assume that the Tories would be more favourably inclined if the unions weren't affiliated to Labour, and Labour is likely to share a common mindset in any event
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Not mentioned on the thread, but I wonder if labour's Unite woes might give the lib dems a boost. It certainly gives them an opportunity.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.

    I know nationalists everywhere are always trying to come up with ways they can say they're being taken advantage of by foreigners, but this is a very strange thing to be unhappy about. They're upset that other countries are paying to prosecute and jail an unfairly large number of British criminals, rather than leaving them to walk free in Britain?

    It's the kind of gallery playing that could well end up doing more harm than good if not properly thought through - see UK universities and their increasing struggle to attract top class talent because of visa restrictions.
    SO you keep repeating this, but from my experience it as *absolutely not true*.

    I sit on the finance committee of one of the major London universities. Our foreign student numbers are actually up significantly on previous years. It's the domestic students that have fallen following the increases in fees and the reduction in sponsorship by employers (we are a postgrad school)

    And I cover this area as a part of my job. The number of applications to come to the UK from top quality PhD students and researchers is declining. They are a key demographic for our on-going competitiveness and ability to innovate.

    Interesting - I can only cite my experience (which is PhD / MA students and researchers) - school is focused on public health and tropical medicine so has a very strong African/Asian focus

    Your experience would make sense given the specific expertise. I am talking more about areas that involve industry/research interface - various types of physics, chemistry etc. We are losing out to other countries now after a sustained period in which we were attracting a lot of very high class talent.



  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Millsy said:

    The commentators on left and right are throwing down the gauntlet for Miliband. Big issue for him; will it die or grow over the summer?

    Who writes the script anyway? This issue flares up just before the summer recess, so Labour types go away gloomy and Tories leave with their tails up. And next week there is David Miliband on the Andrew Marr Show...!

    I've had a pretty thorough surf about this morning and haven't found much support for EdM's tactics to date. It's either crowing how he's totally fumbled it and vulnerable or more hope than experience with big *ifs* about it being a chance to turn a crisis into a win.

    Frankly, I can't see an easy way out of this for either side.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If the LDs and Tories can play the Lobbying Bill to achieve this, I think in the long run it'd be a lot healthier for all concerned.

    Ed needs to make the point that people who donate to charities don't expect to be given a say in what the charities do. They aren't shareholders.

    So it should be with UNITE. If you don't like what I do, give your money to some other f8cker. Bet you don't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Plato - CIFers are the equivalent of the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail Comments page, ie they would not be happy unless the Labour Party was led by George Galloway on a 1983 manifesto just as those commenting on the DT and DM wouold not be happy unless Nigel Farage led the Tories on the 2001 manifesto, neither are anything like representative of the nation at large!
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621
    Plato said:

    From an unemotional POV, I agree completely - but I just can't see it ever happening without serious tears before bedtime. If the LDs and Tories can play the Lobbying Bill to achieve this, I think in the long run it'd be a lot healthier for all concerned.

    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    Observer editorial

    "...The privileging of unions in the Labour party constitution could be justified at the party's birth in 1900 when socialist thinkers believed that the party was the political wing of a labour movement that would transform capitalism and in practical terms needed all the financial help it could get. But now it locks trade unionists such as McCluskey into a mindset that the union interest can best be advanced by entryism into the Labour party. It paints trade unionism not as the friend of ordinary working people who want better wages and conditions but, rather, as a partisan bureaucratic machine. Outside the public sector, union membership is a trivial 14% of the workforce..."

    I actually wonder whether it is in the *union's* best interest to be affiliated to one party.

    Let's say they get a little more influence with the Labour party as a result of affiliation and Labour is in power half the time. But the cost is they have (presumably) much weaker links to the Tories.

    So net net, they probably have less influence over the whole cycle.

    Wouldn't it make more sense for them to be independent actors, working to advance their members' interests with all political parties? One would assume that the Tories would be more favourably inclined if the unions weren't affiliated to Labour, and Labour is likely to share a common mindset in any event
    One point here (I heard Hattie on TV for about a minute before turning over), was that the working peole need a party to represent them, and that Labour is that party. EdM appears to go the same way.

    I never realised that Labour meant to represent working people. To me, they represent a sub section of working people.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    antifrank said:

    Andrew Rawnsleylooks on the bright side for Ed Miliband. There's a lot of truth in what he has written but the final if is a big if:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/07/unite-crisis-miliband-opportunity-rawnsley?guni=Keyword:news-grid main-1 Main trailblock:Editable trailblock - news:Position2:sublinks


    "The worst of Mr Miliband's personal ratings is when voters are asked whether he is capable of taking a tough decision. The number invariably comes in at below 20%.
    He needs to prove them wrong. This is his chance to do so. In this crisis, he has a great opportunity – but only if he seizes it and with urgency."

    Which sounds about right.
    It does appear that Ed Milliband has so far been reactive rather than proactive. He could still turn this to his advantage, but he'll need to pull his finger out. And pick some fights.
    Or at any rate, look like he's picking fights.
    How much of this is actually choreographed?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    O/T Is Ed Conway, aka "The Rail Ticket Man" still employed?..If so, why?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    How much of this is actually choreographed?

    I'd say precisely zero. No matter how much Ed is seen to win from here on in, the shadow of a hard left agenda over and above labour's manifesto will always be there. It would still have been better if the whole affair had never arisen.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I haven't rated May when on the back foot but she's a better performer with a feather in her cap.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:

    Plato said:

    I must say that the deliberate panto going on between Labour and UNITE is marvellous - and to think its all been conjured up to make EdM look strong.

    Has Ed Miliband been a strong or weak leader of his party?
    Strong: 10(-6)
    Weak: 47(+10)
    .
    So net strong from -21 to -37 - funny how that was not one of the changes OGH pointed out!
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    tims reply to Charles must be his most stupid to date ,
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ed Miliband up to job of being PM (net agree) : -37 (-11)

    Funny that, when tim and OGH keep telling us he's doing so well....
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    When I lived in South Kensington, nr the tube station there were dozens of Language schools above the little shops there, on registration day, dozens of "Students" lining up, never to be seen again after that day
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    On SP:

    'We'll put the results of an exclusive survey of UKIP councillors to UKIP Leader @Nigel_Farage on the Sunday Politics at 11am'
    'Sunday Politics /ComRes: UKIP cllrs - 70% previously voted Tory, 30% been Tory candidates, 21% have been Tory cllrs, 33% been Tory members' gibb

    Although the sunshine and a 'tennis final bbq' beckons, so I'm off to stock up on designer sausages.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT For nostalgia fans - this is from the BBC Magazine '10 things you didn't know' from a decade ago.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3014903.stm
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited July 2013
    Why does UKPR's @anthonyjwells describe his firm's "well/badly" ratings as being leadership approval numbers? Those are quite different.

    If you want to find our if people approve or not you ask.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Carola said:

    On SP:

    'We'll put the results of an exclusive survey of UKIP councillors to UKIP Leader @Nigel_Farage on the Sunday Politics at 11am'
    'Sunday Politics /ComRes: UKIP cllrs - 70% previously voted Tory, 30% been Tory candidates, 21% have been Tory cllrs, 33% been Tory members' gibb

    His answer to that should be "so?" Most of the ex-labour voters trending UKIP won't have been activist types so not likely to have much experience as councillors etc.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    tim said:

    Whoa Theresa, don't blow it now with idiotic gimmicks

    Christopher Hope ‏@christopherhope
    Radical islamists could be subject to "banning order" so they have their words voiced by actors, suggests Theresa May on #murnaghan

    Stand by for 18 months of announcements like this aimed at the coveted "completely cretinous floating voter" demographic. The trick is to aim the policy at some group that Labour doesn't want to be seen standing up for, but make it so idiotic that Ed Miliband can't match the pledge without falling into a deep, self-loathing depression.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've always been impressed by John Reid - and he's playing this perfectly on BBCSP - why didn't he get a shot at the leadership?

    He was a total bruiser when it came to beating up the Tories at times but did it with style.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    '@YvetteCooperMP
    Extremely welcome that Abu Qatada now deported to face trial. Home Sec was right to pursue further agreement w Jordan http://tl.gd/n_1rl7gq7'

    Look forward to a full apology by the Icepixie in the HoC.

    Five incompetent Labour Home Secretaries,one Theresa May.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    tim is going for the world record of stupid posts today..What about the Japanese students who attended a very busy language school in Folkstone, very near another residence of mine down in Kent.They were around all day, in large groups , did.nt seem to be bothered about any plane crashes there..Have you ever been outside of your front door tim, since you gave up the farming lark..a whole world out there where people actually do things..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ed Miliband has provided an effective opposition to the govt (net) : -46 (-8)
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    I've always been impressed by John Reid - and he's playing this perfectly on BBCSP - why didn't he get a shot at the leadership?

    He was a total bruiser when it came to beating up the Tories at times but did it with style.

    Total bruisers - let alone old ones - usually shoot straight from the hip without the preliminary niceties and much faffing around. They look for a quick solution.

    Also they realise much sooner than the spin doctors that the people cannot be fooled any longer and truth must out in order to save the best from a situation.

    Trouble is that many spin doctors end up by believing their own spin and so become permanently self-deluded and are unable to differentiate between truth and their spin. PB has a few of those.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Financier

    Indeed. John Reid is a rare beast nowadays.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Plato said:

    An intriguing prospect - Paywall

    "...Last week Labour’s union link prevented progress on party funding. Nick Clegg pulled the plug on further high-level talks because, while all parties favour a cap on donations, Labour cannot possibly accept a cap of about £50,000 per donation, as the others would, when it has already relied on more than £8m from Unite alone since Miliband’s election.

    In the meantime the Conservatives hope Falkirk will spur the Lib Dems into helping them take tactical advantage in amendments to the trade union section of the lobbying bill going through parliament. Rather than union members opting to contribute to a political fund, which the barons then donate to Labour, they want each member to tick off which party their money should to go to. Windfalls to all except Labour would probably follow; by Unite’s own reckoning fewer than half its members actually vote for the party..."

    The second paragraph is what I have been proposing for years, on here and elsewhere. It would benefit the unions massively in several ways, and could even increase union membership - anecdotally, many people are put off union membership because of the perceived links with Labour, and that is sadly true for unions that have no links. They are perceived - rightly and wrongly - as being out-of-touch and old-fashioned.

    Unions often do a good job, as Tim mentioned below wrt JLR. They are a necessary component of society as some employers will occasionally behave poorly through negligence or malice. But as employment law and society have moved on, so should unions.

    It would be really nice for there to be a central place where all the positive stories of union<->management interaction could be displayed, from both perspectives.

    Then again, my industry is largely ununionised ...
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'You may not value particular universities, FE colleges etc but I'm not sure we'd want you deciding which sports and music colleges should be prevented from operating'


    And would anyone trust Labour deciding,they couldn't even tell the difference between a college and an immigration scam.


    '500 bogus colleges closed in UK in 18 months - IBNLive - Games

    ibnlive.in.com/news/500-bogus-colleges-closed-in-uk.../302071-2.html‎

    Oct 25, 2012 - British immigration authorities have closed down an estimated 500 bogus colleges operating in the country over the last 18 months, affecting a...'
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Another Tom Watson story...

    "Labour MP Tom Watson was caught up in a new dirty tricks row last night after it was claimed that his allies smeared an ethnic minority Labour candidate in a selection battle with one of his closest friends.

    Mr Watson’s allies are accused of falsely claiming Labour candidate Ansar Ali Khan is a ‘terrorist supporter’ to stop him becoming a Labour Euro MP.

    Mr Khan’s main opponent in the Labour selection contest in the West Midlands is former Labour MP Sion Simon, a long-standing friend and ally of Mr Watson.

    The result of the fiercely fought Labour battle in the West Midlands will be announced at the end of this month.

    The Mail on Sunday can also disclose that Mr Watson has been accused of meddling to help his 26-year-old girlfriend become Labour candidate in the parliamentary constituency next door to his own.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2357551/Vote-rig-Labour-MP-new-smear-row-Tom-Watsons-allies-called-rival-candidate-terrorist-supporter-helped-girlfriend-neighbouring-seat.html#ixzz2YM7Dv08x
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    All in all, a very satisfactory week indeed, Theresa May in particular deserving huge praise for her dogged determination and (presumably with Foreign Office help) patient diplomacy.

    This of course also will fit in very well with sorting out the abject mess of the Human Rights Act. Although it's not an official policy paper, I think this very well-written discussion document gives a very good insight into how this can be done, and I'd be very surprised if option 5(c) on page 12 is not in the next Conservative manifesto:

    http://www.conservativepolicyforum.com/sites/www.conservativepolicyforum.com/files/20130614_bill_of_rights_discussion_paper.doc

    As for Buddha Ed - dear oh dear.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Let's see if these are still runners on Tuesday

    "Last night there was a sense of mounting panic amongst Labour backbenchers. But speaking to Miliband insiders and shadow cabinet members this morning, there is a feeling the Labour leader has at last grasped the enormity of the crisis enveloping him, and is preparing to confront it. “We do have a plan,” said one.

    The six million dollar question is: what does that plan, due to unveiled in a speech on Tuesday, entail? Three main options appear to be floating around. One is to sign up those trade unionists who agree to pay the political levy directly to the party, effectively removing them for the control of the union leaders. A second is to dilute the union’s influence over the election of Labour leader. And the third is an idea Miliband has already floated, of a cap on political donations..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100225174/ed-miliband-can-pretend-that-falkirk-was-just-a-few-bad-apples-or-he-can-admit-that-labour-is-facing-a-real-crisis/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics
    Blog: Abu Qatada gone, the economy looking up, Labour in turmoil: the Tories are reaping the... http://tgr.ph/1d5pkIJ by @jameskirkup
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    On the European Arrest Warrant, this is a political time-bomb which will explode sooner or later. It's only a matter of time before the media go all-out on some horrendous case of an innocent granny or young mother being hauled off to a foreign jail at the whim of some dodgy political-appointee investigating magistrate.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It's OK, panic over, Ed has won.
    Over the weekend, Ed Miliband drew a line in the row with Unite, whose flames had been fanned all week by the Tory press
    http://labourlist.org/2013/07/ed-miliband-has-drawn-a-line-under-the-row-with-unite-but-why-were-the-guardian-fanning-the-flames/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    On the European Arrest Warrant, this is a political time-bomb which will explode sooner or later. It's only a matter of time before the media go all-out on some horrendous case of an innocent granny or young mother being hauled off to a foreign jail at the whim of some dodgy political-appointee investigating magistrate.

    There was a story a while ago that caught my attention:

    "A British woman was strip-searched and locked up in a German prison cell for two weeks after being arrested for an alleged 'crime' a former boyfriend had been suspected of committing years earlier.

    Tracey Molamphy's nightmare ordeal began during a 2008 flight to Munich with her then-boyfriend, Lee Chapman.

    German authorities arrested the 40-year-old after her name was flagged up on an immigration database.

    For the next two weeks she was forced to share a cell with a heroin addict for more than 22 hours a day, and was just hours away from being extradited to Portugal - where the alleged offence had taken place 12 years earlier - before her lawyers were able to secure her release.

    German officials made the arrest as the result of an incident which took place in 1996 while Miss Molamphy and Mr Chapman were holidaying in Portugal. Mr Chapman was unknowingly in possession of £120 in counterfeit notes and when he tried to get the money changed, the couple were arrested.

    They were detained for 24 hours but, after a brief hearing conducted entirely in Portuguese, were released without charge - or so they thought - and simply ordered to leave Portugal on the next flight out. For the next 12 years the couple travelled regularly throughout Europe without incident - until Miss Molamphy's arrest in Munich.

    It transpired that Portuguese authorities had charged Miss Molamphy with being an accessory to forgery and that, under European Arrest Warrant legislation introduced in 2003, she could be detained and extradited anywhere within the EU without evidence. Mr Chapman escaped similar charges because Lisbon officials did not have his address..."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2058212/British-woman-thrown-cell-European-Arrest-Warrant-crime-boyfriend-allegedly-committed-15-years-ago.html#ixzz2YMAXykC1
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ed's swift and decisive action trailed by Hattie this morning

    @patrickwintour
    Labour candidates can already spend only £300 and send out 2 leaflets to win party nomination. So far Mili-plan is mini-plan: more to come.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    edited July 2013

    This of course also will fit in very well with sorting out the abject mess of the Human Rights Act. Although it's not an official policy paper, I think this very well-written discussion document gives a very good insight into how this can be done, and I'd be very surprised if option 5(c) on page 12 is not in the next Conservative manifesto:

    http://www.conservativepolicyforum.com/sites/www.conservativepolicyforum.com/files/20130614_bill_of_rights_discussion_paper.doc

    So if I'm reading it right the thought is that the court in Strasbourg has been reading the convention too broadly and giving people rights that weren't originally supposed to be in there, and the proposed solution is to make a British version of the convention, but specify some boundaries around it to prevent it being read broadly.

    If you do that, don't you just end up with everybody who can't win their case under British law taking it to Strasbourg so they can benefit from the broader version?

    PS. I loved this bit:
    However, the fact that ‘human rights farce’ stories appear so frequently in the press, and that the public reacts negatively to such stories, show that the current legislation is not working.
    The Daily Mail makes up a load of shit about the legislation which the voters believe, therefore the legislation is broken. QED.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges
    Diane Abbott's failure to back Ed just now illustrates the scale of his task in confronting McCluskey.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    .@AndyJS - you may enjoy this - The Prisoner's Dilemma with real prisoners http://www.improbable.com/2013/07/05/the-prisoners-dilemma-with-real-prisoners/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2013
    Just as we get rid of Abu - here's the next one.

    " The Ugandan man, described as a danger to the public and the Armed Forces, has used the controversial Human Rights Act to stave off deportation for four years.

    His case will raise fresh concerns over the exploitation of the legislation, which was used by Abu Qatada to avoid deportation to Jordan for eight years. However, Theresa May, the Home Secretary, has fought a parallel human rights case with a convicted terrorist over another, highly controversial, provision of the legislation - the Article 8 guarantee of a “right to family life”.

    The terrorist was jailed after admitting that he attended a terrorist training camp and told he would face deportation at the end of his sentence.

    But he has fought a lengthy legal battle, which is believed to have been funded by legal aid, claiming that his “family life” is in Britain and that this makes it unlawful for him to be deported. He claimed his children would be “exposed to Aids” in Africa.

    He can only be identified as “YM” after immigration judges granted him anonymity - even though his name was public knowledge when he was jailed, and he has since committed further crimes..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10164418/Ministers-face-new-terrorist-human-rights-row.html
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Tim, I just watched Farage on the Andrew Neil show - thanks for the tip - but didn't see any skewering whatsoever. Au contraire, it was another good performance by Farage and his incomprehension of Neil's question about Drenge was both statesmanlike and mildly amusing.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    tim said:

    This of course also will fit in very well with sorting out the abject mess of the Human Rights Act. Although it's not an official policy paper, I think this very well-written discussion document gives a very good insight into how this can be done, and I'd be very surprised if option 5(c) on page 12 is not in the next Conservative manifesto:

    http://www.conservativepolicyforum.com/sites/www.conservativepolicyforum.com/files/20130614_bill_of_rights_discussion_paper.doc

    So if I'm reading it right the thought is that the court in Strasbourg has been reading the convention too broadly and giving people rights that weren't originally supposed to be in there, and the proposed solution is to make a British version of the convention, but specify some boundaries around it to prevent it being read broadly.

    If you do that, don't you just end up with everybody who can't win their case under British law taking it to Strasbourg so they can benefit from the broader version?

    PS. I loved this bit:
    However, the fact that ‘human rights farce’ stories appear so frequently in the press, and that the public reacts negatively to such stories, show that the current legislation is not working.
    The Daily Mail makes up a load of shit about the legislation which the voters believe, therefore the legislation is broken. QED.
    Because Mail readers believe Christmas is banned and vaccination is dangerous surely we should legislate for that?



    The document is called "A Magna Carta for 2015". It's pretty much the same thing, except:
    1215: The king being forced to adopt limits on his power to appease the feudal barons.
    2015: The Tories being forced to pretend to make changes to laws to appease people who believe what they read in the Daily Mail.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Labour party looking at it self instead of the country,deeply damaging;
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Labour party looking at it self instead of the country,deeply damaging;

    @hopisen
    Caring about being 'Labour' a big part of Labour's problem. Focus should be on those who couldn't care less about us. http://wp.me/p1Vf1s-1tW
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    If you do that, don't you just end up with everybody who can't win their case under British law taking it to Strasbourg so they can benefit from the broader version?

    Apparently not, because you're not reading it quite correctly. It seems that one of the biggest reasons for the lunacies is that, as a consequence of the Human Rights Act 1998, UK courts (with a different legal tradition based on precedent) have been over-enthusiastic in extrapolating from Strasbourg rulings. As Dominic Grieve (no frothing right-winger, he) says:

    It is well known that the Strasbourg Court has made clear that member states cannot deport people back to a place where they risk being tortured. But under UK law the Human Rights Act has also been interpreted to block deportation where it might also infringe on the right to family life. That goes further than either the Convention or the Strasbourg Court requires and risks fettering our ability to deport some criminals or those who pose a risk to security

    Of course, as with many of the messes bequeathed by the last government, the basic problem is very hard because we shouldn't have started from here.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    tim is definitely going for the record iof stupoid and ignorant posts. I lived near the Japanese studnts school for four years, they were a delight to have around, immensely polite and very cheerful kids. The school is well known and situated on Cromwell Gardens.There did not seem to be a problem with any illegal immigrants and i never said there was, just one of his more stupid points,
    Unfotunately for tim and his argument my prtner and I own a large chunk of an International Langusge school in Italy, we derive a major portion of our income from it,WE do not take any part in the day to day running of the organisation but we do know that all languege schools in London are vetted and a lot are not acceptable, mainly because there appears to be no syllabus, The school does send students around the world and the local ones are taught up to Cambridge entrance level Interns are placed around the world and dare I say it, even in the White House..If the ex Cheshire farmer wants to continue making a complete tit of himself then I can't wait for his next idiotic post.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654

    If you do that, don't you just end up with everybody who can't win their case under British law taking it to Strasbourg so they can benefit from the broader version?

    Apparently not, because you're not reading it quite correctly. It seems that one of the biggest reasons for the lunacies is that, as a consequence of the Human Rights Act 1998, UK courts (with a different legal tradition based on precedent) have been over-enthusiastic in extrapolating from Strasbourg rulings. As Dominic Grieve (no frothing right-winger, he) says:

    It is well known that the Strasbourg Court has made clear that member states cannot deport people back to a place where they risk being tortured. But under UK law the Human Rights Act has also been interpreted to block deportation where it might also infringe on the right to family life. That goes further than either the Convention or the Strasbourg Court requires and risks fettering our ability to deport some criminals or those who pose a risk to security

    Of course, as with many of the messes bequeathed by the last government, the basic problem is very hard because we shouldn't have started from here.
    OK, so the policy is just to make British law as close as possible to European law? That sounds like a sensible idea to me, but it didn't really come over like that...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Tim,

    Perhaps if Abu Qatada had registered as a student then everything would be fine, and his children could bring up the schools in the area.

    As it was Abu Q provided a significant boost to the law enforcement and m' learned friends before his final boost to the earnings of the airline industry.

    I expect now to see a surge in Jordanian GDP in the law enforcement sector and a slump in ours.

    Will this govt never learn about the economic boost provided by an open door policy to migrants?
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Plato said:

    @Financier

    Indeed. John Reid is a rare beast nowadays.

    A rare beast indeed,I watched him today and was quite impressed.
    He came to visit me and my operations once,he was SOS NI at the time,and security was immense,we had 3 days of searches of the site beforehand,and then 3 helicopters around the site,he had 2 very burly bodyguards,who were quite obviously armed.
    He stayed about 20 mins,and left immediately I refused him permission to smoke,he was achain smoker then,and I had an absolute and total ban on smoking anuwhere on site.
    Shudder to think of the cost.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Was it only 4 days ago we had a thread on whether Dave had pushed too much on the Unite issue at pmqs ??

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    OK, so the policy is just to make British law as close as possible to European law? That sounds like a sensible idea to me, but it didn't really come over like that...

    No, the policy is to comply with the original European Convention on Human Rights, which we helped write, which is entirely admirable and balanced, and which is built on principles which have been part of English Common Law, and Scottish law, for centuries, whilst as far as possible chucking out the extraneous garbage which has accrued to it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654

    OK, so the policy is just to make British law as close as possible to European law? That sounds like a sensible idea to me, but it didn't really come over like that...

    No, the policy is to comply with the original European Convention on Human Rights, which we helped write, which is entirely admirable and balanced, and which is built on principles which have been part of English Common Law, and Scottish law, for centuries, whilst as far as possible chucking out the extraneous garbage which has accrued to it.
    So going back to where I came in, doesn't everyone not covered by that who thinks they have a claim under the principles of extraneous garbage just take their case to Strasbourg?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413


    So going back to where I came in, doesn't everyone not covered by that who thinks they have a claim under the principles of extraneous garbage just take their case to Strasbourg?

    If they can afford to do so, and don't mind the years of waiting for their case to be heard, then presumably they can do. However, they couldn't claim damages in the UK courts, as I understand it, and I'm not sure the European Court can directly award damages (I might be wrong about this last bit).

    It's a bit of an unsatisfactory fudge, but we are where we are, and it seems by far the most practical way of mitigating the lunacy.
  • TGOHF said:

    Was it only 4 days ago we had a thread on whether Dave had pushed too much on the Unite issue at pmqs ??

    Correct - Milibandophile Smithson tried to turn it into a criticism of Cameron's tactics at pmqs! His dislike of Cameron is so intense that sadly it means his thread headers often lack much sense of balance these days.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TGOHF said:

    Was it only 4 days ago we had a thread on whether Dave had pushed too much on the Unite issue at pmqs ??

    And how it was Dave that was weak, not Ed.......

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Got to be worth a punt, I reckon

    @Coral
    We're offering 66/1 that Andy Murray proposes to Kim Sears at Wimbledon today! http://bit.ly/11s7TSH
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    DavidL said:

    Can anyone explain the maths in this piece: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10164859/IMF-to-change-tune-on-UK-economy-and-raise-growth-forecast.html

    Specifically:
    "If the economy expanded by 0.3pc in every quarter this year, the annual rate of growth would be 0.8pc, he calculated. If it grew by 0.5pc for the remaining three quarters, annual growth would be 1.1pc."

    If the economy grew 0.3% for each quarter from the previous quarter it seems to me that the overall rate of increase would be fractionally more than 1.2% because Q4 would be 0.3% of a bigger base than existed in Q1. I don't understand how it can be less.

    Presumably these sorts of calculations are underlying why growth forecasts have not increased in line with quarterly projections. I had thought that if Q2 was 0.6% then the economy would have grown 0.9% in the first half. Apparently not.

    Not a great article on facts or calculations but as the overall message was positive I kept quiet.

    On a side note I have yet to reconcile the SWIFT index 'nowcast' of 0.1% growth in the current quarter with current press predictions of 0.5% especially given that SWIFT's own Year on Year forecast for the same quarter is 1.1%.

    SWIFT's forecast for Q3 is 1.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which makes much more sense.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Was it only 4 days ago we had a thread on whether Dave had pushed too much on the Unite issue at pmqs ??

    And how it was Dave that was weak, not Ed.......

    Camerons YouGov ratings have fallen by the same as Milibands this week haven't they?
    Dave on -20, Ed -34.....
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited July 2013
    Can someone tell the Cheshire farmer..ex..that Abu's application was accepted by the home offivce in good faith, and he was granted refugee status, his activites in calling for a fatwa brought him to the attention of the authorities and he was ararrested in 95.. thats when it was discovered he was a fraud. Then the legal battles to get rid of him began. sheesh.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    Was it only 4 days ago we had a thread on whether Dave had pushed too much on the Unite issue at pmqs ??

    And how it was Dave that was weak, not Ed.......

    Camerons YouGov ratings have fallen by the same as Milibands this week haven't they?

    Camerons taken unpopular decisions,what's ed's excuse ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    OGH and tim think these numbers are great for Ed:

    Among VI net well:
    Cameron: +85
    Miliband: +25

    No further comment required.....
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Plato said:



    The PCS unaffiliated from Labour when it's leadership/members didn't think they had enough in common - Unite on the otherhand want to fix things in entryist terms.

    PCS and its predecessor unions were never affiliated to Labour. Unite isnt engaging in entryist tactics in relation to the Labour party - Unite's predecessor unions founded the Labour party.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    edited July 2013


    So going back to where I came in, doesn't everyone not covered by that who thinks they have a claim under the principles of extraneous garbage just take their case to Strasbourg?

    If they can afford to do so, and don't mind the years of waiting for their case to be heard, then presumably they can do. However, they couldn't claim damages in the UK courts, as I understand it, and I'm not sure the European Court can directly award damages (I might be wrong about this last bit).

    It's a bit of an unsatisfactory fudge, but we are where we are, and it seems by far the most practical way of mitigating the lunacy.
    If you google up "ECHR damages" they do seem to award them, so the difference just seems to be that the Tory plan would mean more time and expense. (Apart from occasional cases of divergent caselaw, which could presumably be fixed independently if that was the issue).

    I guess for a lot of defendents the delays caused by jamming up the European court will be a feature not a bug. I'm not sure who ends up paying the expense, but there seems to be some kind of right to legal aid, so presumably it's the British taxpayer...
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited July 2013
    tim.. Abu was questioned in 201, arrested and detained in Belmarsh in 202, further arrest followed ,I beieve in 205, and he was given a restraining order.But as usual, dont let details get in the way.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges

    Murray Will Lose. There, if that doesn't end 77 years of hurt, nothing will.

    lol
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    More great results for Ed:

    Among Labour VI
    Provided effective opposition (net) -9
    Strong: 22
    Weak: 26

    Less than half of Labour voters think he would be up to job of PM(48) with the rest not (25) or don't know (27) fortunately 2010 Lib Dems are clear - 58% think he's not up to the job
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Plato said:

    OT For nostalgia fans - this is from the BBC Magazine '10 things you didn't know' from a decade ago.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3014903.stm

    The Courier always has a brief story from 25, 50, 75 and 100 years ago. The story this week was of a jewellary robbery in Dundee with the criminals making their getaway in a stolen car to Glasgow. And it was our car! I still get teased about this because I always mumped that the car had no acceleration at all but my wife points out it was thought fast enough by jewel thieves.

    Strange for the story to resurface after all these years.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ed Miliband can pretend that Falkirk was just 'a few bad apples', or he can admit that Labour is facing a real crisis

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100225174/ed-miliband-can-pretend-that-falkirk-was-just-a-few-bad-apples-or-he-can-admit-that-labour-is-facing-a-real-crisis/

    If Dan Hodges is taking the pi$$ on his own predictions,can we believe him on this ;-)
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