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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Tim
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls
The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead down to 6%
CON 33%
LAB 39%
LD 11%
UKIP 12%
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LOL - whoever came up with the idea of submitting their own Royal Charter has played an absolute blinder.
Quite why it would take so long I don't know but if correct it really makes a mockery of the whole thing.
Meanwhile it's 3 years since Chilcott finished hearing evidence and nothing further has happened - another farce.
Only 20% of people believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of being PM.
And just 10% believe he is a strong leader.
Not looking too good for him is it?
I think the timing has given Ed an unexpected chance. First, the summer recess is coming up. THen, it is the Party Conference season. He could get his Militant Tendency moment. In the meantime, he can claim justifiably that he went through all the natural justice "procedures".
I expect the 33% Union share in the Electoral college will go.
Would Unite cut off funds ? Len might, but Unite won't.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10164859/IMF-to-change-tune-on-UK-economy-and-raise-growth-forecast.html
In your opinion how good or bad is the state of
Britain's economy at the moment?
Good 9 (+2)
Bad:: 63(-7)
How do you think the financial situation of your
household will change over the next 12 months?
Better: 15(+2)
Worse: 41(-6)
Thinking about Ed Miliband's leadership of the
Labour party, do you think he...
Has or has not provided an effective opposition
to the government?
Has: 18 (-4) LAB: 38
Has not: 64 (+4) LAB: 47
Has moved Labour towards the political centre,
moved it towards the left, or kept things about
the same?
Has moved Labour towards the political centre: 16(-5) LAB 25
Left: 20(0) LAB: 11
Same: 33(+2) LAB: 45
DK: 31(+4) LAB: 19
Has been a strong or weak leader of his party?
Strong: 10(-6) LAB: 22
Weak: 47(+10) LAB: 26
Neither: 29(-8) LAB: 44
DK: 14(+4) LAB: 8
ED M:
Would or would not be up to the job of Prime
Minister?
Would: 20(-5) LAB: 48
Would not: 57(+6) LAB: 27
DK 23(-1) LAB: 25
Generally speaking, do you think the Labour
party's links with the Trade Unions are a good
thing, or a bad thing?
Good:26 LAB:53
Bad: 35 LAB: 9
Neither:23 LAB: 27
DK: 16 LAB:11
How much influence do you think the Trade
Unions have within the Labour party these
days?
A Lot: 41 LAB:21
Not a lot: 33 LAB: 52
DK: 27: LAB: 27
Thinking about the funds the Labour party
receives from the trade unions, which of the
following best reflects your view?
There is nothing wrong with Labour receiving a
large amount of funds from the Trade Unions - they
are part of the Labour: 27 LAB: 56
Labour should try and reduce the amount of money
they receive from the Trade Unions - the present
reliance on Union money risks giving them too
much influence over the party's policies and
candidate selection: 46 LAB:22
Neither: 6LAB: 6
DK:20 LAB:16
Many Labour MPs are sponsored by Trade
Unions, receiving donations to help their
election campaigns or run their offices. Like all
donations, these have to be publically declared.
Do you think it is or is not acceptable for MPs to
be sponsored by Trade Unions in this way?
Acceptable:32LAB:60
Not acceptable:42 LAB: 16
DK:25 LAB: 23
And do you think most MPs do or do not do a
good job for the amount of money they are
paid?
Most MPs do a good job for the amount they are
paid: 28
Most MPs do not do a good enough job considering
the amount they are paid:58
DK: 15
Would you support or oppose a "right of recall" -
giving people the right to sack their MP and hold
a by-election if enough people signed a petition
calling for their MP to be recalled?
Support: 75
Oppose:11
DK: 14
Generally speaking, do you think the BBC and
the programmes and services it provides are
better, worse or about the same as they were
ten years ago?
Better: 23
Worse: 36
Same:32
DK:9
And thinking about the licence fee and the
services the BBC offers, do you think it does or
does not offer good value for money?
Does offer good value for money: 43
Does not: 48
DK: 9
Do you think the top management and
executives of the BBC are paid..
Too much: 72
Too litlle: 1
About right:11
DK:16
And do you think top presenters and stars on
BBC television and radio are paid...
Too much: 70
Too litlle: 2
About right:14
DK:14
Do you believe the BBC should make public the
salaries of the following people who work for it?
Top BBC stars and presenters
Should:73
Should not:16
DK:11
Ordinary BBC presenters, actors and journalists
Should:54
Should not:34
DK:12
Top BBC management and exectutives
Should:79
Should not:11
DK:10
Ordinary BBC workers and staff
Should:36
Should not:53
DK:11
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22154686
We have our own legal system. We should use it in the interests of our people.
From the moment Blanchard criticised Osborne, the economic news started improving. We need to get him back again. Also interesting to see the forecast from Henderson for 2% growth this year but I've no idea how accurate they have been in the past.
Well done to Theresa May for finally getting rid of Abu Qatada.
We can now await the fulsome praise from Ed M.
Does anybody know if there are 'Next to leave the Shadow Cabinet' prices anywhere?
Jim Murphy being sacked looks highly improbable to me, as he is one of very, very few competent Scottish Labour MPs. The Shadow Cabinet is already the least Scottish in decades, perhaps ever, so they just cannot afford to sack a third of the contingent (Alexander, Curran, Murphy).
The fact that Margaret Curran (who?) is in the Shadow Cabinet at all is a strong indication that the group of Scottish Labour MPs lacks talent.
Don't forget your family
Does Jordan have an extraduition treaty with the USA?.
I think that is unlikely to be the case. I am sure the lawyers on here will confirm something to the effect that that under EU law you cannot extradite to countries where the crime being charged for would merit the death penalty in that country.
James Sutherland @jksutherland
Theresa May has done what 5 Labour Home Secretaries failed to do - Abu Qatada is on that plane and out of here!! #rejoice
" Mrs May is expected to tell MPs that the process of opting out of the EU’s justice and home affairs measures by the end of May 2014 — as Britain is entitled to do under the terms of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty — will be followed by a process of opting back into some laws that it is in the national interest to retain.
The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here.
Other concerns include the length of time suspects can be held without trial in some other EU countries and the apparently trivial offences for which British police are asked to arrest people so that they can be sent abroad. Ministers have been pressing for the warrant to be “reformed”, amid signs that it could be one of the measures that is eventually retained. The Lib Dems are key supporters of the warrant.
Other measures among the scores from which Britain is expected to opt out include DNA profiling and fingerprint checking, some co-operation on cross-border crimes and plans for an EU-wide driving ban. One plan Britain is particularly keen not to be part of is that of a European-wide public prosecutor with sweeping powers of investigation and arrest across member states..."
UKIP, being the natural NOTA party, look destined to stay around until at least GE2015 when their result will depend on the news-cycle as well as the economy. All it needs is a selfish MP/Europe/PC story at the wrong time to wrong-foot all forecasts.
As Dusty Spring field sang, courtesy of Goffin and King ...
"Let everyone debate the true reality
I’d rather see the world the way it used to be
A little bit of freedom’s
All we lack
So catch me if you can
I’m goin’ back."
"The most controversial is the European Arrest Warrant, which senior Conservative sources say gives rise to “concerns” — including the fact that Britain currently hands over many more suspects to other countries than it receives to face justice here."
I wonder if it's just that there are fewer evil b*****ds from UK in Spain than is generally supposed!
As a death penalty supporter that's (yet another) thing I don't like about the EU.
Glad to hear Qatada's finally gone.
Post-race piece may be slower than usual coming as I'll probably miss the start, and may decide to watch Wimbledon and then the highlights [hopefully no tennis presenting twonk will spoil the result, as Sue Barker apparently did for qualifying 20 minutes before qualifying highlights began].
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/crime-courts/police-call-for-eu-arrest-warrants-to-be-retained.19263079
Suppose an Englishman's wanted for jay-walking in Latveria. The Home Secretary refuses to have him arrested. He visits Scotland and then...
...either he's arrested (could this be overruled? I would guess yes) and sent over to Latveria, or he isn't, and Scotland looks to be bad Europeans (but good Britons, which of course matters more).
There's a story in the STimes about possible infiltration of NSYard by organised crime gangs!! The good news keeps on rolling in for the plod.
" Scotland Yard faces a new corruption scandal over claims that its most sensitive units dealing with informants, intelligence and protected witnesses have been “infiltrated” by corrupt officers in the pay of one of Britain’s leading organised crime figures.
In what threatens to become the Yard’s biggest corruption scandal since the 1980s, three Metropolitan police whistleblowers say David Hunt, an East End businessman named by a judge last week as the head of an organised crime network, used “sleepers” inside the Yard to help him evade justice for three decades.
Using a “network” of corrupt serving and former officers, Hunt is alleged to have located and then intimidated a man into not giving evidence against him even though he was a police-protected witness..." http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1284594.ece
The STimes have just won a huge civil case against David Hunt - a man that apparently the cops said was *too big to catch* - it's a very impressive victory for their journalism.
The Russians and eastern Europeans are the ones to avoid here on the costas now.
"Using a “network” of corrupt serving and former officers, Hunt is alleged to have located and then intimidated a man into not giving evidence against him even though he was a police-protected witness...and is also suspected of intimidating jurors in trials involving members of his organised crime group. Details of the claims can be revealed for the first time after The Sunday Times won a libel victory against Hunt last week. They are contained in a 54-page legal letter sent to the Metropolitan police commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe by three of his own officers.
The officers, all seasoned detectives in east London, tried to take on Hunt in the run-up to the 2012 Olympic Games. They say they were stymied by corrupt colleagues. Their document — which the Met says is now being “assessed” — names four of the five police officers alleged to be working for Hunt’s organised crime group. They include a senior detective who held several sensitive roles. A junior detective in a sensitive intelligence role dealing with informants is also alleged to have taken a £35,000 bribe from Hunt in 2007. He is one of three identified as working in east London police stations allegedly on behalf of Hunt..."
Qatada may be gone but we are still supporting his ever growing family with prime housing and generous cash payements.
@DPJHodges
Big win for Cameron on Qatada. He's just become his Bin Laden. "I said I'd get him. I have".
Miss Plato, it's almost impressive just how the police seem able to hit rock bottom, only to start mining operations shortly thereafter.
There's far more corruption in Britain than most people believe. It's just more discreet than in some other countries.
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell
Finally we throw out, #Qatada, a man who entered UK on a false passport 20 yrs ago. Time to take on the judicial activists who kept him here
I was advising recently on a case where someone who was on parole from a Scottish sentence wanted to return to his family in Germany. Under one of these provisions that would have been a simple matter of his parole being supervised by the german authorities. Because of the opt out the Scottish Government could not use the provision. They have passed a Scottish Act referring to the provisions and effectively implementing them but it has no effect until Ms May makes here mind up.
As I have said on here before this is seriously tricky for the tories. If they choose to opt in to these measures that itself may well trigger the need for a referendum on the basis that it is passing powers to Brussels. And the time limit for them making their mind up expires before the election.
Holocaust denial in Germany/Austria, the Loi Gayssot in France (which doesn't extend to extradition) for example. Could you get a situation of de facto asylum for free speech in some EU countries but not being able to travel to others?
'New questions over Unite links to Labour leader's devolution plans' http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/new-questions-over-unite-links-to-labour-leaders-devolution-plans.21538013
How many more leaks will we see from the capsizing SLab ship before this affair is closed?
The EU's clearly seeking to create a standardised set of laws, as well as its desire (raised a few months ago) to have a centralised censor that can determine whether or not news stories are worthy of publication.
A spokesman for the Labour party has said :
"It would appear that Len mistook the flight to Jordan for a private flight arranged by the Labour leader to take the UNITE leader to Falkirk.
Unfortunately the next scheduled flight from Amman to Falkirk is June 2015"
@YvetteCooperMP
Extremely welcome that Abu Qatada now deported to face trial. Home Sec was right to pursue further agreement w Jordan http://tl.gd/n_1rl7gq7
It appears under their constitution the Poles do not have the same discretion not to pursue cases that is commonplace elsewhere.
The Tories blowing up over Europe any time before September 2014 would suit me just fine. And I am an optimist.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/06/ed-miliband-labour-future-after-falkirk#start-of-comments
Having read more than the headline, but all I could, as a non-subscriber, it appears that it isn't JLR staff who are in dispute.
JLR has outsourced it's logistics operation (aka got an outside contractor in to arrange delivery of products.)
Now, I understand this company is a) extremely profitable and b) German. So, as a "leftie", I wonder why the workers cannot share in the profits?
As for it's ownership, I leave the conspiracy theorists to run riot!
Anyway, isn't this sort of thing a direct consequence of the fashion for outsourcing?
Aided and abetted by the hapless Ed things seem to be looking up for the governmrnt, and for the country.
- The Barbados Independence Act?
Oh, you mean this?
http://www.google.com/search?q=England+world+cup+1966&client=safari&rls=en&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=biDZUcaSKsKG4gS7nYGIBg&ved=0CD8QsAQ&biw=1280&bih=664
Great minds think alike.
I have great hopes for Brazil.
" There is evidence of questionable tactics by Unite elsewhere, particularly over selections for the 2014 elections to the European parliament.
In the northeast, two prominent Labour members resigned after a popular candidate was turned down in favour of two union officials. In London, Anita Pollack, a former MEP, complained to McNicol that the process had been rigged. She protested that well-qualified candidates such as Carole Tongue, a former MEP, had been left off the shortlist in a “blatant union stitch-up”.
Tongue said: “Unite should focus on increasing union relevance in society when people at work need trade union representation and a lot less on trying to increase control within the Labour party.” It is understood that McNicol privately promised that the European selection procedure would be overhauled, although this will be too late to change the selections made for the 2014 elections. Paywall.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/07/unite-crisis-miliband-opportunity-rawnsley?guni=Keyword:news-grid main-1 Main trailblock:Editable trailblock - news:Position2:sublinks
Specifically:
"If the economy expanded by 0.3pc in every quarter this year, the annual rate of growth would be 0.8pc, he calculated. If it grew by 0.5pc for the remaining three quarters, annual growth would be 1.1pc."
If the economy grew 0.3% for each quarter from the previous quarter it seems to me that the overall rate of increase would be fractionally more than 1.2% because Q4 would be 0.3% of a bigger base than existed in Q1. I don't understand how it can be less.
Presumably these sorts of calculations are underlying why growth forecasts have not increased in line with quarterly projections. I had thought that if Q2 was 0.6% then the economy would have grown 0.9% in the first half. Apparently not.
I don't think the British voter will give a toss about arrested brits being held in foreign jails awaiting deportation to face court. it strikes me that the standards of prisons abroad are much worse than in the UK.
Well, they may be British nationals, and some people think it's a good thing if British nationals aren't deported without cause.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/sorry-ed-its-too-late-to-say-youre-no-union-man-8692531.html
The most interesting thing in a fairly routine Blairite piece is the quote from an unnamed shadow minister. The Blairites are desperately unhappy right now.
"This is not about class – it is about an ideological agenda. Mr McCluskey was a supporter of the Militant tendency in the 1980s. His chief of staff is a member of the Communist party. If he and his comrades want to present a different political choice to the country, then they are perfectly entitled to support a party to the left of Labour or form one of their own. They can write a manifesto detailing their vision of McCluskeyite socialism and see how many votes it attracts. What they are not entitled to do is use their funds to try to stuff the Labour parliamentary party with people obedient to a hard left agenda..." http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/07/unite-crisis-miliband-opportunity-rawnsley
The PCS unaffiliated from Labour when it's leadership/members didn't think they had enough in common - Unite on the otherhand want to fix things in entryist terms.
"...The privileging of unions in the Labour party constitution could be justified at the party's birth in 1900 when socialist thinkers believed that the party was the political wing of a labour movement that would transform capitalism and in practical terms needed all the financial help it could get. But now it locks trade unionists such as McCluskey into a mindset that the union interest can best be advanced by entryism into the Labour party. It paints trade unionism not as the friend of ordinary working people who want better wages and conditions but, rather, as a partisan bureaucratic machine. Outside the public sector, union membership is a trivial 14% of the workforce..."
Rentoul has been saying the same thing about Ed Miliband from the start, so it's no surprise if he is saying them now too. Like Hodges he is a bit of a broken record.
The more significant criticism for Ed came from Kevin Maguire yesterday in the Mirror.
There seems to be a pretty broad consensus across Labour now, whatever specific views on Ed are: the set-to with McCluskey will either make him or finally break him.
Algernon 'Spotty' Perkins and Bertie Blenkinsop.
I couldn't give a stuff if I am "on the wrong side of public opinion" Have you turned from one dark side to the other? Do you read the Daily Mail?
The Blairite dissidence is a recurring theme, and as dangerous for Ed Miliband as union entryism. No wonder he talks about the squeezed middle - he presumably knows how that feels. .
"...What has changed is the balance of power since Miliband became party leader in 2010 with the narrowest of margins over brother David — thanks to Unite’s help. Unite has hugely increased its financial support for the party, putting Miliband further in its debt. In the period since he became leader, it has donated more than £8m, out of a total of almost £60m from all sources. Under Brown, Unite donated almost £1.6m, out of a total of just over £55m.
A senior Labour figure observed: “What we’ve seen in the past decade is the evolution of super unions. That has left the relationship between Labour and the unions dependent on five or six men — they’re almost all men.” Meanwhile Labour’s “org sub” committee, which governs selection procedure, has changed the rules so that it is now harder for would-be MPs to stand without a powerful union’s backing. As Watt put it in an article earlier this year: “You need to be a political insider, a trade union official, or very rich... Working parent? Working class? Squeezed middle? Don’t bother applying.” http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1284267.ece
and are you saying devout muslims do not vote in the uk, that would explain all those Muslim coucillors in mainly Muslim areas.
I think Abu and his family should have the right to enjoy a family life, personally I want them to enjoy it in another country where the taxpayrer in the UK does not have to support them.
You seem to have a problem with that .
JaguarLandRover is wholly owned by TATA which is an Indian company. Also they own CORUS Steel in the UK and Holland and are very big investors in both JLR and CORUS.
EdM writes,"But the presence of ordinary working people – from shopworkers to nurses, engineers to scientists, construction workers to classroom assistants – in a political party should be its biggest asset. To cut these individuals loose would be to make politics more out of touch, not less, more remote from working people.
What people in both the party and the trade unions understand is that far too few of these working people are actively engaged in our party at the local level as individuals. So we should mend the relationship, not end it."
This seems to imply that EdM and Labour wants lots of LOCAL party workers, but as MPs?? - perhaps EDM wants to reserve that role for Labour's chumocracy, Islington set and people like ED, and those who have not had to dirty their hands with "labour" as one of the CIFers says.