politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This morning’s MUST READ: the Guardian account of how it al

Lucky as I randomly logged on.... I must admit I sometimes feel bad reading these articles about how deluded some may have been! Saying that, not in my wildest dreams did I imagine a CON majority was nailed on!

Here it is....

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted

FPT:

AndreaParma_82 said:

The first division of new Parliament took place this evening.
Ayes 275, Noes 331

Surprisingly large Govt majority.

Checking the division list I see DUP voted with the Government. Is that a sign of things to come?

Also from a quick glance it appears that NO LDs were present. Again, sign of things to come?

Could be important - either / both of the above would give Cameron much more breathing space.

MikeL said:

FPT:

AndreaParma_82 said:

The first division of new Parliament took place this evening.
Ayes 275, Noes 331

Also from a quick glance it appears that NO LDs were present. Again, sign of things to come?

What happened? Did the taxi break down? *wink*

Disraeli said:

MikeL said:

FPT:

AndreaParma_82 said:

The first division of new Parliament took place this evening.
Ayes 275, Noes 331

Also from a quick glance it appears that NO LDs were present. Again, sign of things to come?

What happened? Did the taxi break down? *wink*

The tellers are re-calibrating their electron microscopes.

Plato said:

Just been rereading this May 7-8th thread, it's very funny. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/the-exit-poll-is-great-news-for-the-tories/

I loved this one

FrancisUrquhart Posts: 4,155
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May 7
YouGov still think it is neck and neck.

Somebody is going to look like a right tw@t come when the morning comes.

and this

TheScreamingEagles Posts: 25,079
Ignore Favourite
May 7
I don't believe this exit poll

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-wales/

The moment of the exit poll, may have to click 'more comments' to see the rest

Sad news on the Ed Stone:

(The stone’s demolition, in the event of a Labour loss, had been agreed at the time it was commissioned. After the election, the party drew up two plans for its disposal: one was simply to smash the stone up and throw the rubble onto a scrap heap. The second was to break it up and sell chunks, like the Berlin Wall, to party members as a fundraising effort. The first attempts to destroy the stone had to be postponed when the media tracked its location to a south London warehouse. There are claims it has been destroyed, but even Miliband’s close advisers cannot confirm its fate.)

OblitusSumMe said:

In the light of today's hoisting of the Irish flag over Stormont...[i]f you could hoist the Union flag over any building in the world, where would you go?

Mangala Valles, March 27, 1986.

You didn't say which world...:-)

Plato said:

It's such a great realtime read. I've bookmarked it.

Another one was brilliant

Tim_B Posts: 2,380
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May 7
Perfect timing - As David Dimbleby opens his exit poll,the crawler along the bottom of the screen says "Captain Kidd's treasure found"

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato said:

Just been rereading this May 7-8th thread, it's very funny. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/the-exit-poll-is-great-news-for-the-tories/

I loved this one

FrancisUrquhart Posts: 4,155
Ignore Favourite
May 7
YouGov still think it is neck and neck.

Somebody is going to look like a right tw@t come when the morning comes.

and this

TheScreamingEagles Posts: 25,079
Ignore Favourite
May 7
I don't believe this exit poll

Well I wasn't wrong :-) .....Seemed to remeber that comment was to do with the fact that BBC had Kellner on within minutes of the exit poll news and Kellner was not having any of it, claiming YouGov polling said neck and neck and was confident that he was right.



I remember saying that!

Plato said:

It's such a great realtime read. I've bookmarked it.

Another one was brilliant

Tim_B Posts: 2,380
Ignore Favourite
May 7
Perfect timing - As David Dimbleby opens his exit poll,the crawler along the bottom of the screen says "Captain Kidd's treasure found"

FrancisUrquhart said:

Plato said:

Just been rereading this May 7-8th thread, it's very funny. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/the-exit-poll-is-great-news-for-the-tories/

I loved this one

FrancisUrquhart Posts: 4,155
Ignore Favourite
May 7
YouGov still think it is neck and neck.

Somebody is going to look like a right tw@t come when the morning comes.

and this

TheScreamingEagles Posts: 25,079
Ignore Favourite
May 7
I don't believe this exit poll

Well I wasn't wrong :-) .....Seemed to remeber that comment was to do with the fact that BBC had Kellner on within minutes of the exit poll news and Kellner was not having any of it, claiming YouGov polling said neck and neck and was confident that he was right.



Even more brilliant - I've only had four posts since then!

It is worth rereading the article still on the Guardian Website from 3 weeks out explaining how incredibly difficult it was going to be for Cameron to remain PM: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/in-the-election-numbers-game-the-odds-are-stacked-against-cameron

In fairness, the Labour team were not operating in some Romney like fantasy bubble during the election. What they thought was the general consensus in the media and in large part on here (including me).

What sets the Tory campaign apart is their vastly superior intelligence and, probably consequentially, their vastly superior allocation of resources which allowed then to overcome nearly all of the bias that had previously existed in the system for Labour. It is stunning that a party with the resources and the spend of Labour were as misled as the rest of us.

DavidL said:

It is worth rereading the article still on the Guardian Website from 3 weeks out explaining how incredibly difficult it was going to be for Cameron to remain PM: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/in-the-election-numbers-game-the-odds-are-stacked-against-cameron

In fairness, the Labour team were not operating in some Romney like fantasy bubble during the election. What they thought was the general consensus in the media and in large part on here (including me).

What sets the Tory campaign apart is their vastly superior intelligence and, probably consequentially, their vastly superior allocation of resources which allowed then to overcome nearly all of the bias that had previously existed in the system for Labour. It is stunning that a party with the resources and the spend of Labour were as misled as the rest of us.

Not everyone (cough) was completely misled by the polls. I can say that I was convinced that there was something very wrong about the polls and posted about it on here. it just felt wrong, call it gut instinct if you like but I had spoken to quite a lot of people and what I had was purely anecdotal. On the night of the election however I was feeling pretty worried and was amazed at how wrong the polls had been.
The Tories private polling was very different to what was being reported in the media....

DavidL said:

It is worth rereading the article still on the Guardian Website from 3 weeks out explaining how incredibly difficult it was going to be for Cameron to remain PM: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/in-the-election-numbers-game-the-odds-are-stacked-against-cameron

In fairness, the Labour team were not operating in some Romney like fantasy bubble during the election. What they thought was the general consensus in the media and in large part on here (including me).

What sets the Tory campaign apart is their vastly superior intelligence and, probably consequentially, their vastly superior allocation of resources which allowed then to overcome nearly all of the bias that had previously existed in the system for Labour. It is stunning that a party with the resources and the spend of Labour were as misled as the rest of us.

Not all of us were deceived. Arise Sir JackW!

RobD said:

DavidL said:

It is worth rereading the article still on the Guardian Website from 3 weeks out explaining how incredibly difficult it was going to be for Cameron to remain PM: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/in-the-election-numbers-game-the-odds-are-stacked-against-cameron

In fairness, the Labour team were not operating in some Romney like fantasy bubble during the election. What they thought was the general consensus in the media and in large part on here (including me).

What sets the Tory campaign apart is their vastly superior intelligence and, probably consequentially, their vastly superior allocation of resources which allowed then to overcome nearly all of the bias that had previously existed in the system for Labour. It is stunning that a party with the resources and the spend of Labour were as misled as the rest of us.

Not all of us were deceived. Arise Sir JackW!

Quite so, and its very hard to go contra the flow when every poll you see is contrary to what you are saying. but JACKW was insistent that EMWNBPM, and was right.

SimonStClare said:

alex. said:

What isn't explained, I think, is the trip to Russell Brand.

Another bright idea by Lucy Powell by all accounts - no further explanation needed.

An explanation is needed for why it was done in the context of an election campaign which the Labour leadership (if you trust the article) apparently thought was going well.

RobD said:

Plato said:

Just been rereading this May 7-8th thread, it's very funny. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/the-exit-poll-is-great-news-for-the-tories/

I loved this one

FrancisUrquhart Posts: 4,155
Ignore Favourite
May 7
YouGov still think it is neck and neck.

Somebody is going to look like a right tw@t come when the morning comes.

and this

TheScreamingEagles Posts: 25,079
Ignore Favourite
May 7
I don't believe this exit poll

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-wales/

The moment of the exit poll, may have to click 'more comments' to see the rest

You mean this?

DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 895
May 7
Hahahahahahahaha
Flag Quote
DairDair Posts: 3,361
May 7
Woah exit poll 316 Tory, 239 Labour
Flag Quote
SpeedySpeedy Posts: 4,631
May 7 edited May 7
A tory majority!
Flag Quote
SeanTSeanT Posts: 7,903
May 7
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Flag Quote
TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 25,079
May 7
FUCK ME
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AnorakAnorak Posts: 2,638
May 7 edited May 7
FUCK ME 316 WTF IS GOING ON
Flag Quote
Ave_itAve_it Posts: 673
May 7

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!
Flag Quote
SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 3,111
May 7
Wow oh wow oh wow
Flag Quote
PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
May 7
WOWW!!!!!!!!!!! YYEEEEEEESSSS
Flag Quote
rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 5,455
May 7
Wow 316 Tory prediction
Flag Quote
ProdicusProdicus Posts: 271
May 7
King ell
Flag Quote
KentRisingKentRising Posts: 663
May 7
HOLY HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Flag Quote
tlg86tlg86 Posts: 540
May 7
OMG!

Had my crystal ball out without realising on April 10th !

Pulpstar said:

Posts: 18,734
April 10 edited April 10
On topic - This bet is one of the riskiest I have ever seen.

The downside here is enourmous.

If the Conservatives get a majority, which is not completely out the question yet, and Labour underwhelm in England (Alot of 18-24 yr olds amongst their VI so it is perfectly possible) along with the SNP getting over 50 seats in Scotland, you could be looking at a loss of around a hundred points.

So make sure you have 100* stake to cover potential losses imo.

I'm not saying its a bad bet, just a very risky one - far more so than selling UKIP even, or just a plain sale of Con.

not_on_fire said:

Interesting to discover that Fallon's ridiculous interview was deliberately staged by Crosby. Nasty but effective tactics.

I missed Fallon's comments at the time and, when I read them later, I utterly missed their import. I guess I'm not a political operator.

(As an aside, Southam Observer laughably called me a liar when I said I hadn't read Fallon's comments. Another Labourite who embarrassed himself multiple times over the campaign.)

malcolmg said:

alex. said:

What isn't explained, I think, is the trip to Russell Brand.

That was very wierd indeed

Brand is weird, Miliband is weird.. not such a far stretch really, both of them live on planet zog.

foxinsoxuk said:

Millsy said:

I just love the irony of how Labour's campaign was centred around how out of touch the Tories were...and then you look at Miliband and his team who are a bunch of middle class intellectuals who bang on about inequality without knowing what the hell to do about it

Very true! We now know who was out of touch with reality.

Labour look out of the game in Scotland, but in England and Wales all is not lost. There is quite a big Green and UKIP vote to be sought.

Getting the leadership right is critical, not just as a sign of policy direction, but also Labour need someone capable of organising what proved to be a very ineffective team.

None of the current bunch vying for it will save them

Plato said:

The dead-cat rang true as a tactic - but I don't think the Tories were bothered about non-doms either.

What I think it was intended to do, it did - to derail Labour's pet stupid *major announcement* and knock their confidence by making Miliband the issue.

When I read that the non-doms were supposed to be a Big Thing - I scratched my head. And what were the other policies Labour had? I honestly can't think of any and when I asked repeatedly on here for a list of them, no Labourites could summarise them.

No wonder the EdStone was so woolly.

Scott_P said:

not_on_fire said:

Interesting to discover that Fallon's ridiculous interview was deliberately staged by Crosby. Nasty but effective tactics.

That was much discussed at the time. I am still not sure it is actually true. Remember this is a Guardian account of the Labour campaign. Nobody from the Tory camp has confirmed the story as far as I am aware.

I take the view that the Tories always had a grid entry for "attack Miliband" for betrayal. Maybe the scale and tone changed, maybe the date changed, but I am not at all convinced this was dreamt up at the last minute to "move on" from non-doms. Nobody cares about non-doms. The election result proves that.

Ironically the first point on the #Edstone was about solid foundation. Now it is being broken up for hardcore and just that purpose...

malcolmg said:

alex. said:

What isn't explained, I think, is the trip to Russell Brand.

That was very wierd indeed

Let's hope Nicola's appearance on The Daily Show goes better, eh Malc?

The hero from the Tory perspective is the polling industry.

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, victory is everything. Had the Tories lost, and scored fewer than 285 seats, a very similar article in the same vein, criticising Crosby, Feldman, Oliver and Cameron, might have appeared in the Telegraph or Spectator written by D'Ancona, or James Kirkup

The reality is that only the SNP and Conservative campaigns hit home. The same article could have been written about Labour, LibDem, Green, UKIP and PC. None of these 5 parties were as in touch as much as they thought.

Good morning, my fellow Milibandites.

Comrades, the skirmish of the 2015 General Election has ended in what can only be described as a draw. Chairman Miliband bravely won the people's heart, piling up even more votes than his esteemed predecessor, Comrade Brown.

Due to the depraved perversity of the gerrymandered electoral system, even Chairman Miliband's universal popularity (who can forget the philosophical movement 'Milifandom'?) was insufficient to break the stranglehold of decadent capitalists upon Downing Street.

Comrade Miliband has selflessly resigned his august position as Supreme Leader of the People's Labour Party, but his spirit lives on. One day, comrades, a new Edstone will be engraved and it will be placed in Number Ten's garden. And on that day, comrades, the profiteering capitalists shall rightly tremble.

I see Qatar have come out to describe anyone who makes moves to investigate their bid as being anti Arab. Wearingly predictable.

From the Guardian article

"Alastair Campbell – who was increasingly involved in the final weeks of the campaign, even attending meetings with Miliband’s inner circle – wrote a punchy “one nation” speech for Chatham House. “Taking Britain to the edge of Europe and firing the flames of Scottish Nationalism, as Cameron did the morning after the referendum, are desperate acts of survival,” the speech was to have said. “He is a man that cares more about a few more years in power than a few hundred years of a union that has served our country and served the world so well.”

Alexander thought it would work................

Another aide explained why the Campbell speech was axed: “The rival view was that our vulnerability on English nationalism was really very severe and anything that sounded like we were defending the Scots would be music to the Tories’ ears, and just make the problem worse. So the two arguments cancelled each other out.”

On 30 April, Miliband went even further in attempting to distance Labour from the SNP. On BBC Question Time that evening, he stated that if a deal with the SNP was what stood between him and Downing Street, “then so be it. I’m not going to give in to SNP demands – whether that is on Trident or on the deficit.” But by then it was surely too late."

Unquestionably Douglas Alexander was correct.

Given the high likelihood of the SNP remaining at Westminster with 50-59 MPs at the next 2020 election (if Scotland is not en route to a UK exit), the Labour Party had better grasp that they must attack the Conservatives along the lines used in the speech that was never given, rather than monstering the SNP for daring to seek to legitimately represent Scotland.

Interesting that Labour had not really done a risk analysis on all potential election outcomes.
BTW, did any PBer suffer any serious losses with the bookies that night or were they able to minimise them?

Financier said:

Interesting that Labour had not really done a risk analysis on all potential election outcomes.
BTW, did any PBer suffer any serious losses with the bookies that night or were they able to minimise them?

My NOM position was fairly poor, wiped out quite a few gains elsewhere.

I tend to think people’s opinions shift a lot less in response to campaigns than we think. The Tories are seen to have done a pretty good job on the economy. Cameron looks PMish. Therefore they won.

Stephen Doughty (Cardiff South and Penarth), Nick Smith (Blaenau Gwent) and Chris Evans (Islwyn) backs Kendall for Leader


Cruddas backs Lammy for London Mayor

Plato said:

IIRC a few on here said they'd be quite stung by the LDs failing to get 11 seats or more.

Did anyone make money on them having 8 or less?

MaxPB said:

Financier said:

Interesting that Labour had not really done a risk analysis on all potential election outcomes.
BTW, did any PBer suffer any serious losses with the bookies that night or were they able to minimise them?

My NOM position was fairly poor, wiped out quite a few gains elsewhere.

Shadsy had a market on exact LD seats. I forecast 14 but covered exact results from 8-18 as cover, so I more or less broke even on these. I did well on constituencies by betting against the LD.

Scott_P said:

malcolmg said:

alex. said:

What isn't explained, I think, is the trip to Russell Brand.

That was very wierd indeed

Let's hope Nicola's appearance on The Daily Show goes better, eh Malc?

I have no doubt Nicola will do well - much as Angus Robertson did at PMQs yesterday.

Salmond is the SNP's Farage. Discuss.

"Ed wasn’t unlucky. Ed was crap."

Ed was both.

Mr Sandpit, there's no need to purge anyone. Instead of sitting around thinking up gormless stunts, the Labour Spads and advisors should have been out on the streets talking to, and not at, the voters. At least then, the result may not have been such a shock.

But by then, it was probably too late - they'd stuck with the dud for too long.

Mr. Royale, surely a supporter of Miliband and his stone should be an iconodule?

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, victory is everything. Had the Tories lost, and scored fewer than 285 seats, a very similar article in the same vein, criticising Crosby, Feldman, Oliver and Cameron, might have appeared in the Telegraph or Spectator written by D'Ancona, or James Kirkup

The reality is that only the SNP and Conservative campaigns hit home. The same article could have been written about Labour, LibDem, Green, UKIP and PC. None of these 5 parties were as in touch as much as they thought.

There were weaknesses in the Tory campaign too, several of which regularly were trailed on here. Crosby in particular came in for heavy criticism as was Cameron's "coasting" and "lack of passion". The Tory campaign didn't really feel like it had much traction until the final two weeks.

But, at the end of the day, the Tories won and Labour's problems were worse, so we now gloss those over.

Largely they are ignored because they're invalid now.

Many (myself included) couldn't understand the Tory priorities in sending Cameron around our LD allies territory when we were forecast to lose upto 50 Tory seats to Labour. Defending seats from Labour made sense as "one seat lost to Labour is like two won from the LDs" plus the LDs had a famous "cockroach like ability to survive" so it was pointless.

At the end of the day we didn't really net lose seats to Labour and taking the LD seats succeeded. The coasting argument isn't made now as it was in hindsight wrong. In a counter-factual scenario the argument would be made as it would in hindsight have been right.

Hindsight is 20-20.

Carlotta Vance

"Salmond is the SNP's Farage. Discuss."

Salmond is an MP-and already embarrassing the Tories about the farce of their apparent intention of having the Scottish Select Committee dominated by English Tories, while intending to establish EVEL.

Farage-a defeated candidate.

Plato said:

I'm amazed this hasn't made it to here already - the BBC tweeted that the Queen was dead. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/royalfamily/article4459912.ece

It appears that a journalist thought the rehearsals for HRH's death were real... yeah, I'd tweet that, not. Complete with typo.

“Queen Elizabrth has died” @BBCWorld

I was in the queue at Tescos at 11 ish last night and that came on with the fragrant Ros Urwin (nnnngh). Lass in front of me shouted "THE QUEEN IS DEAD? WHEN DID THAT HAPPEN" and two of us had to calm down.

Listening to the radio, on the drive in, that HMG are no longer going to subsidise on-shore Wind energy. Apparently Scotland may get a bit upset as they plan to be all -Green energy in the foreseeable future. Makes sense as our industry cannot afford more expensive energy than its competition.