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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordin

SystemSystem Posts: 12,548
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordinary day in the life of Farage’s party

Former key allies Patrick O'Flynn and Suzanne Evans both lose their jobs in a 12 hour period as Nigel Farage exerts his authority at @UKIP.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2015
    Any one still under any illusions about UKIP?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Surely Suzanne Evans' contract ending is a non-story?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737
    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    Salmond successfully handed over to the new leader who has done better than him, and they had to have a big team because they formed two single-party governments since 2007. So Ukip is altogether a different category.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I didn't think Mrs Evans would be pushed off a short plank as well. Big shame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    edited May 2015
    EPG Salmond was the SNP for all intents and purposes from 2003-2014, he was the figurehead, he was the frontman even if he did have MSPs and Scottish Cabinet Ministers. UKIP have an MP, not Farage, and more MEPs than any other party, but Farage still dominates for now
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    From Ms Evans's facebook page:

    "Suzanne Evans has been working within Head Office for the past few months developing our manifesto, a task which was completed with singular success. As Mark Reckless said earlier today, nothing has been agreed in regard to any future role he may play within the party.

    UKIP Deputy Chairman Suzanne Evans says: “It has been a great privilege to work with UKIP for the past four months to produce the 2015 General Election manifesto. I was delighted with the way it was received, especially by party members and supporters. While my contract for that work comes to an end next week, I remain in my voluntary post as Deputy Chairman.”

    https://www.facebook.com/SuzanneEvansUKIP

    So she's still Deputy Chairman? Not much of a story.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,988
    HYUFD said:

    EPG Salmond was the SNP for all intents and purposes from 2003-2014, he was the figurehead, he was the frontman even if he did have MSPs and Scottish Cabinet Ministers. UKIP have an MP, not Farage, and more MEPs than any other party, but Farage still dominates for now

    I still don't think it's a valid comparison. The SNP existed as a serious movement long before Alex Salmond and its identity did not depend on him, however much he came to dominate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    Although if Out wins, UKIP dies.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Well. Even taking into account the extra dash of sensationalism you get from the media on Ukip, this is still a bizarre series of events.

    Does Farage not get that to be taken as the serious party he purports Ukip to be it can't be a one-man band? How much more of this has to happen before his credibility is shot?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    For Charles.. Thanks for your message, and I have responded.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    I think the 4 million UKIP voters deserve much more respect from the party, to humiliate their most effective and on message media performer seems crazy.

    Following Salmond's bad cop articles about Murphy, up pops good cop Nicola with her own article:

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/opinion/columnists/i-am-determined-we-will-not-make-the-same-mistakes-as-labour-207215n.126325566

    She was echoing my comments FPT that the SNP MPs will become hard working at a constituency level and will be able to draw upon party members in all constituencies to participate in 3rd sector community projects.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    Although if Out wins, UKIP dies.
    Ukip are fecked if there is a vote whatever the outcome.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    The comparison to the SNP is totally facetious. The SNP are not the same as UKIP they're a party in government.

    Besides the referendum is not why the SNP are doing well, the SNP did well which is why there is a referendum. Don't put the cart before the horse.

    In fact in the 2011 election, referendum and 2015 election the SNP or Yes share has been consistent. Within a range that would be considered Margin of Error in polls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    WG UKIP has existed since 1992
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Charles said:

    Any one still under any illusions about UKIP?

    The Tories probably won a majority because of UKIP. The purples took enough votes from Labour for the Conservatives to gain the crucial 8 seats from Labour that took them over 326: Telford, Derby North, Bolton West, Southampton Itchen, etc.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,826
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    The comparison to the SNP is totally facetious. The SNP are not the same as UKIP they're a party in government.

    Besides the referendum is not why the SNP are doing well, the SNP did well which is why there is a referendum. Don't put the cart before the horse.

    In fact in the 2011 election, referendum and 2015 election the SNP or Yes share has been consistent. Within a range that would be considered Margin of Error in polls.
    I'd argue that a big part of us getting a referendum is down to the rise of Ukip.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    edited May 2015
    SeanF Squareroot Which is probably why the best result for UKIP is a relatively close In, as for the SNP it was a relatively close No
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    edited May 2015
    PhilipThompson Are Alex Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon UK PM or Deputy PM? no. UKIP won most seats in the Euro elections, the SNP at Holyrood and that was what really launched the Scottish and EU referendums respectively

    Of course many Tories would also be Out voters, the Greens in Scotland, who would also be Yes voters, are much smaller than the Tories
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    Although if Out wins, UKIP dies.
    Although I don't want to see out win or Scotland leave the UK, those outcomes would certainly solve some problems for the left in England.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    The comparison to the SNP is totally facetious. The SNP are not the same as UKIP they're a party in government.

    Besides the referendum is not why the SNP are doing well, the SNP did well which is why there is a referendum. Don't put the cart before the horse.

    In fact in the 2011 election, referendum and 2015 election the SNP or Yes share has been consistent. Within a range that would be considered Margin of Error in polls.
    Without UKIP, we wouldn't be having a referendum.

    With the benefit of hindsight, Cameron could have avoided a referendum. UKIP did more damage to Labour than the Conservatives, but this came as a surprise.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    I'd argue that a big part of us getting a referendum is down to the rise of Ukip.

    UKIP were still almost exclusively polling in single digits when Cameron comitted to a referendum. I'd suggest it's largely due to Tory rebels. Though it's neither here nor there in a comparison to the SNP, the SNP had polled over 45% in the election beforehand. Something UKIP have never remotely come close to.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    FPT:
    Ha, Matt goes for @antifrank's fairy cake joke!
    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03310/200515-MATT-web_3310374a.jpg
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,737
    HYUFD said:

    EPG Salmond was the SNP for all intents and purposes from 2003-2014, he was the figurehead, he was the frontman even if he did have MSPs and Scottish Cabinet Ministers. UKIP have an MP, not Farage, and more MEPs than any other party, but Farage still dominates for now

    Seen from England? Perhaps. Seen from Scotland? I don't think so.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further

    The comparison to the SNP is totally facetious. The SNP are not the same as UKIP they're a party in government.

    Besides the referendum is not why the SNP are doing well, the SNP did well which is why there is a referendum. Don't put the cart before the horse.

    In fact in the 2011 election, referendum and 2015 election the SNP or Yes share has been consistent. Within a range that would be considered Margin of Error in polls.
    Without UKIP, we wouldn't be having a referendum.

    With the benefit of hindsight, Cameron could have avoided a referendum. UKIP did more damage to Labour than the Conservatives, but this came as a surprise.
    Except if Cameron hadn't promised a referendum then it's possible UKIP would have done more damage to the Tories while we might have had even more defectors. Who knows?
  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    The irony is that it is Farage himself who will end up taking the blame for OUT losing...and losing badly. And as someone who wants to leave the EU that's a bad thing. He may be popular to most of the 3.8 million who voted UKIP at the election but his presence would be poisonous to the voters who need to be brought over to the OUT side. As one journalist put it yesterday, he needs to be locked away in a cupboard until after the referendum with as much fags and beer needed to keep him occupied.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,170
    The O'Flynn dismissal was unwise. He was a liked and respected by a lot of the UKIP-sympathetic, right-wing journos, who won't take Farage's humiliation of their mate well. Some will be gunning for Farage after this. However we've learnt - if we didn't know already - that Farage rules with fear and wrath, and the devotion to him amongst the faithful is absolute. The fact that the great libertarian and free thinker Douglas Carswell was whipped to heel like a spaniel is evidence of Nigel's iron grip.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    PhilipThompson Are Alex Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon UK PM or Deputy PM? no. UKIP won most seats in the Euro elections, the SNP at Holyrood and that was what really launched the Scottish and EU referendums respectively

    Of course many Tories would also be Out voters, the Greens in Scotland, who would also be Yes voters, are much smaller than the Tories

    UKIP Euro vote 26.6%
    SNP 2011 vote 45.4%

    Do your seriously think 26.6% in a protest election that's never been taken seriously (no government has ever won it) is at all comparable to 45.4% is a governmental election?

    Besides you're factually incorrect. Cameron comitted to a referendum in January 2013. Which was before the 2014 elections.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,826
    Philip_Thompson said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'd argue that a big part of us getting a referendum is down to the rise of Ukip.

    UKIP were still almost exclusively polling in single digits when Cameron comitted to a referendum. I'd suggest it's largely due to Tory rebels. Though it's neither here nor there in a comparison to the SNP, the SNP had polled over 45% in the election beforehand. Something UKIP have never remotely come close to.
    The SNP is a regional party that has (very effectively) risen to take advantage of running a pocket money government.

    I really don't care who does what in politics so long as they are true to their word or as much as they can be. Whoever we have to thank for the referendum I'm glad that it's going to happen.

    Ukip, in my opinion, reflect a discontent among a section of our society and it's much more than just the EU. For instance, were we to vote to stay in the EU and immigration was to stay the same or increase, I doubt Ukip would disappear very quickly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    PhilipThompson UKIP won almost 30% in the 2014 Euro elections, purely under PR unlike the mixed Holyrood or FPTP Westminster elections the SNP got their score on
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    Philip_Thompson said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'd argue that a big part of us getting a referendum is down to the rise of Ukip.

    UKIP were still almost exclusively polling in single digits when Cameron comitted to a referendum. I'd suggest it's largely due to Tory rebels. Though it's neither here nor there in a comparison to the SNP, the SNP had polled over 45% in the election beforehand. Something UKIP have never remotely come close to.
    UKIP were averaging 10% by the start of 2013. Everyone thought they were ex-Conservatives, at that point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    EPG Salmond was the frontman throughout that time, when Swinney led the SNP in 2003 he barely registered
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    So the SNP is nothing like UKIP HYUFD and the two situations aren't remotely comparable? Glad you agree.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,807
    edited May 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Except if Cameron hadn't promised a referendum then it's possible UKIP would have done more damage to the Tories while we might have had even more defectors. Who knows?

    Indeed predicting these things is completely impossible.

    Like it was perceived wisdom on here for the last couple of years that, in retrospect, Con should have supported AV.

    In fact they were right not to - AV would have encouraged huge numbers of Con / UKIP waverers to vote UKIP on 1st preference which would have given UKIP far more momentum - whereas as it turned out all these people were scared into voting Con!

    Ditto Lords reform - again perceived wisdom Con shot themselves in the foot by opposing Lords reform which then cost them the boundary changes and any chance of a Con majority. Except, as it turned out, they still got a Con maj!

    Conclusion: Things take so many twists and turns it is impossible to know whether you took the right decision even years after the event! So how on earth can you judge the correct decision before the event?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I like how in your eyes 26.6% is "almost 30%" too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    WelshBertle Well most of the No voters loathed Salmond, but Yes still won 45%, many Out voting Tories and a few working class Labour voters also like Farage, not just Kipper diehards
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,285
    Learnt a new word today: conglobation. Means to roll tightly into a ball, like an armadillo, to keep the world out.

    I thought the LibDems might like to add it to their vocabulary too.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarqueeMark said:

    Learnt a new word today: conglobation. Means to roll tightly into a ball, like an armadillo, to keep the world out.

    I thought the LibDems might like to add it to their vocabulary too.

    It's also a word that has 50% more letters than the Party has MPs.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I discovered that you can *slight* or demolish a castle.
    MarqueeMark said:

    Learnt a new word today: conglobation. Means to roll tightly into a ball, like an armadillo, to keep the world out.

    I thought the LibDems might like to add it to their vocabulary too.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    WelshBertle Well most of the No voters loathed Salmond, but Yes still won 45%, many Out voting Tories and a few working class Labour voters also like Farage, not just Kipper diehards

    45% which is comparable to the 45% polled in 2011.

    Something tells me if Out in the Euro referendum matches the 26% that UKIP got in 2014 then the Out side won't be too happy with that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    edited May 2015
    PT At least half the 23% who voted Tory in 2014 if not more could be Out voters in 2017, add together UKIP's 27% and the Tories 23% and you get 50%. Almost all the 45% who voted Yes in 2014 voted SNP in 2011, with a handful maybe voting Green
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    If UKIP survives in the long run, I imagine that it will be like the Danish Peoples' Party. Mid-way between Con and Lab, economically, right wing socially. That's where a large chunk of the electorate stand. And, that viewpoint is massively underrepresented in Parliament.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,285
    Plato said:

    I discovered that you can *slight* or demolish a castle.

    MarqueeMark said:

    Learnt a new word today: conglobation. Means to roll tightly into a ball, like an armadillo, to keep the world out.

    I thought the LibDems might like to add it to their vocabulary too.

    I was struck recently by how few words I add to my vocab these days.

    Maybe I should take up serious Scrabble.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The big question is what is the priority of Farage?
    UKIP or himself?

    Today it looks like Farage has downgraded UKIP back to what it was before it's surge, in order to keep his job as leader.
    And as long as the UKIP members put Farage above UKIP there is no way forward for them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    How can you add all of the Tories voters as Outs when you don't think all Tories are outs. Hint I voted Tory and will vote In as I suspect most Tories will.

    Out will get about 33%
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    It's my party and I'll cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to
    Cry if I want to

    http://dontpaniconline.com/media/magazine/660x420/3480fb4e6cd2eab102db45a96b6f8759.jpg
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Philip_Thompson said:

    How can you add all of the Tories voters as Outs when you don't think all Tories are outs. Hint I voted Tory and will vote In as I suspect most Tories will.

    Out will get about 33%

    Most Tories will vote whatever Cameron says, but currently I think that OUT is ahead if the turnout will be the same as the GE.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I used to love Scrabble then ran out of people I couldn't beat :unamused:
    MarqueeMark said:

    Plato said:

    I discovered that you can *slight* or demolish a castle.

    MarqueeMark said:

    Learnt a new word today: conglobation. Means to roll tightly into a ball, like an armadillo, to keep the world out.

    I thought the LibDems might like to add it to their vocabulary too.

    I was struck recently by how few words I add to my vocab these days.

    Maybe I should take up serious Scrabble.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Patrick O'Flynn is a clever man with good ideas. However, like many clever people he is also stupid.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm a Inner too if we get some acceptable exceptions
    Philip_Thompson said:

    How can you add all of the Tories voters as Outs when you don't think all Tories are outs. Hint I voted Tory and will vote In as I suspect most Tories will.

    Out will get about 33%

  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    I'd be stunned if Out got even close to the vote percentage Yes did in Scotland. Straw poll of PBers? I'm for In.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/24/eu-referendum-record-lead/
    Support for staying in the EU has climbed to 45% from a low of 28% found in May 2012, when OUT led by 23 points. That May 2012 poll was conducted as the Eurozone crisis deepened and just days after a majority of Greeks voted for parties that wanted throw out the country’s bailout agreement with the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Late last week, European finance ministers rejected similar proposals by the Greek government, led by the recently elected far-left party Syriza.
    Speedy said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    How can you add all of the Tories voters as Outs when you don't think all Tories are outs. Hint I voted Tory and will vote In as I suspect most Tories will.

    Out will get about 33%

    Most Tories will vote whatever Cameron says, but currently I think that OUT is ahead if the turnout will be the same as the GE.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Speedy said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    How can you add all of the Tories voters as Outs when you don't think all Tories are outs. Hint I voted Tory and will vote In as I suspect most Tories will.

    Out will get about 33%

    Most Tories will vote whatever Cameron says, but currently I think that OUT is ahead if the turnout will be the same as the GE.
    Agreed that Cameron will carry a large part of the Tory party voters and he is going to say In. So where are Out voters coming from? I see no scenario besides Cameron being completely rebuffed that leads to an Out.

    The so called Euro 2014 "win" only happened on a share of 26.6% not typically a winning stake. They won by coming first in a three horse race in an election notorious for it's protest factor. Not even Blair won the European elections from government. Don't read too much into that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,988
    edited May 2015
    Speedy said:


    Most Tories will vote whatever Cameron says, but currently I think that OUT is ahead if the turnout will be the same as the GE.

    The last time strident euroscepticism was tested in a national poll that mattered was the General Election in 2001 when William 'Save the Pound' Hague got trounced.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'd argue that a big part of us getting a referendum is down to the rise of Ukip.

    UKIP were still almost exclusively polling in single digits when Cameron comitted to a referendum. I'd suggest it's largely due to Tory rebels. Though it's neither here nor there in a comparison to the SNP, the SNP had polled over 45% in the election beforehand. Something UKIP have never remotely come close to.
    UKIP were averaging 10% by the start of 2013. Everyone thought they were ex-Conservatives, at that point.
    I didn't.

    If people had taken the time to speak to working class people they would have realized how disenchanted they were with mainstream politics. But that would have involved focus groups having to lower themselves and talk to the lower classes.

    By the time Labour real used it was far too late.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    I'm a Inner too if we get some acceptable exceptions

    Philip_Thompson said:

    How can you add all of the Tories voters as Outs when you don't think all Tories are outs. Hint I voted Tory and will vote In as I suspect most Tories will.

    Out will get about 33%

    I'm an inner if I think that it's close and we get acceptable concessions. ~Personally I want the closest in vote possible.

    However after watching the start of Eurovision, Brexit is suddenly looking a lot more appealing!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    I discovered that you can *slight* or demolish a castle.

    MarqueeMark said:

    Learnt a new word today: conglobation. Means to roll tightly into a ball, like an armadillo, to keep the world out.

    I thought the LibDems might like to add it to their vocabulary too.

    I thought "slighting" was just making it indefensible (by knocking holes in the wall) rather than demolishing them?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    I'd be stunned if Out got even close to the vote percentage Yes did in Scotland. Straw poll of PBers? I'm for In.

    I'm slightly in. The overall value of our membership isnt that great though. But, if Cameron can get a few successes i'll be happy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nigel4england said:

    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'd argue that a big part of us getting a referendum is down to the rise of Ukip.

    UKIP were still almost exclusively polling in single digits when Cameron comitted to a referendum. I'd suggest it's largely due to Tory rebels. Though it's neither here nor there in a comparison to the SNP, the SNP had polled over 45% in the election beforehand. Something UKIP have never remotely come close to.
    UKIP were averaging 10% by the start of 2013. Everyone thought they were ex-Conservatives, at that point.
    I didn't.

    If people had taken the time to speak to working class people they would have realized how disenchanted they were with mainstream politics. But that would have involved focus groups having to lower themselves and talk to the lower classes.

    By the time Labour real used it was far too late.
    My lifelong Labour voting grandfather who disliked Blair is UKIP. He'd never in a million years vote Tory.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    It seemed interchangeable according to a 6 month old BBC4 docu about Tudor castles I found on my DVR, happy to be corrected as ever.

    EDIT
    Slighting - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slighting
    Slighting usually refers to the destruction or razing of castles and fortifications of the losing party in a military conflict. It is carried out through dismantling, leveling .
    Charles said:

    Plato said:

    I discovered that you can *slight* or demolish a castle.

    MarqueeMark said:

    Learnt a new word today: conglobation. Means to roll tightly into a ball, like an armadillo, to keep the world out.

    I thought the LibDems might like to add it to their vocabulary too.

    I thought "slighting" was just making it indefensible (by knocking holes in the wall) rather than demolishing them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    PT According to a yougov in February 42% of Tories would vote to leave, 39% to stay, that with a poll which had a 10 point In lead, the same as No won indyref
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2i11ywuxs2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230215.pdf
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    Philip_Thompson said:

    How can you add all of the Tories voters as Outs when you don't think all Tories are outs. Hint I voted Tory and will vote In as I suspect most Tories will.

    Out will get about 33%

    Much depends on what is on offer. And events. And how long the Government's honeymoon lasts.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    williamglenn said:

    Speedy said:


    Most Tories will vote whatever Cameron says, but currently I think that OUT is ahead if the turnout will be the same as the GE.

    The last time strident euroscepticism was tested in a national poll that mattered was the General Election in 2001 when William 'Save the Pound' Hague got trounced.
    Let's face it, the conditions of 2001 will never come round again.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,988
    Sean_F said:

    Let's face it, the conditions of 2001 will never come round again.

    You're right. Never again will the Conservative party campaign on a single issue which is of marginal importance to the electorate.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    I'd be stunned if Out got even close to the vote percentage Yes did in Scotland. Straw poll of PBers? I'm for In.

    Out at present. Persuadable for In, but as much as UK-specific concessions I want to see some central reform so as to make the system less corrupt (and less corruptable in future). And Out will need to make a reasonably clear and positive case too. I certainly have my doubts over that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    radsatser said:

    All this talk about keeping Nigel away from the referendum, what planet are people living on. The only people with any credibility on Euroscepticism are NIgel Farage and UKIP, whilst the part time eurosceptics over the previous 40 years have achieved.. well a big fat zero.

    Whole careers and good livings have been made by people like Bill Cash, the fake eurosceptic in chief, who campaigned like a true eurosceptic to stop the Maastricht Treaty, but when the chips were down his euroscepticism disappeared like a fart in a hurricane, and he meekly went through the government lobbies to vote for Maastricht.

    Fake Euroscepticism is the father of the bastard child UKIP, safely delivered into the world by Nurse Cash, and it will ensure that in this coming fake IN/OUT referendum, the fake eurosceptics especially in the Conservative Party have their feet held ffirmly to the fire,.

    Sounds like you are more interested in settling scores than actually *winning* the referendum
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    PT According to a yougov in February 42% of Tories would vote to leave, 39% to stay, that with a poll which had a 10 point In lead, the same as No won indyref
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2i11ywuxs2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230215.pdf

    I'm looking at the turnout and voting profile by age.
    If it replicates the GE one then OUT is ahead by a whisker.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,906
    What a big mess. Poor Suzanne Evans. Silly Nigel.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    OT Anyone else like flamenco guitar? I'm after a few suggestions. Just come across Paco De Lucia's [sp] but he's rather impressive.
  • Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Oh my.. :)

    http://theulsterfry.com/local-news/peace-process-under-threat-as-gay-cake-violence-spreads/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Puntastic stuff
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Oh my.. :)

    http://theulsterfry.com/local-news/peace-process-under-threat-as-gay-cake-violence-spreads/

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    PT According to a yougov in February 42% of Tories would vote to leave, 39% to stay, that with a poll which had a 10 point In lead, the same as No won indyref
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/2i11ywuxs2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230215.pdf

    According to YouGov in February Labour was going to win the election.

    If Cameron is campaigning for In then expect most Tories to back him. I can't think of any referendum where a parties voters have voted clearly against how their leader was recommending.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato said:

    OT Anyone else like flamenco guitar? I'm after a few suggestions. Just come across Paco De Lucia's [sp] but he's rather impressive.

    Check out this pair. Flamenco Nuevo apparently...

    http://www.rodgab.com/

    They played at Glastonbury last year
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    Let's face it, the conditions of 2001 will never come round again.

    You're right. Never again will the Conservative party campaign on a single issue which is of marginal importance to the electorate.
    Of such marginal importance that we're about to have a referendum about it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    As silly as the whole 'I'm resigning, oops, no I'm not' thing was, and as much as Farage probably needs and deserves a break and might have have been reenergised by fighting an open contest again to reassert his authority, his status as a seeming asset of the party was not really that damaged, so it was a poor effort at a coup, and certainly risky.

    On the subject of a referendum, I do fear we might suffer if we leave, in the long term at least. But I really really want to say out. The EU has nothing but contempt for anyone who doesn't wholeheartedly support total integration as an ultimate aim, and that's just not what the British public want, and the EU leaders make clear that attitude irritates them.

    We are holding the EU back from what it wants to be (yes, some states might be more soft euroskeptic than others, but overall the trend seems perfectly happy), and we are being dragged along further than we want to go. That's not good for either side, it just fosters resentment and bitterness.

    I'll probably end up voting In out of fear of leaving the status quo, but in recent years I've become increasingly critical of the EU, and I'm very open to the possibility of voting out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    edited May 2015
    WilliamGlenn Hague's opposition to the Euro probably saved us from it, had Clarke beaten him to be Tory leader in 1997 we would have been in the Euro for over a decade
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Thanxx
    Scott_P said:

    Plato said:

    OT Anyone else like flamenco guitar? I'm after a few suggestions. Just come across Paco De Lucia's [sp] but he's rather impressive.

    Check out this pair. Flamenco Nuevo apparently...

    http://www.rodgab.com/

    They played at Glastonbury last year
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    By the way HYUFD more Jeb Bush news, apparently a company he was affiliated with gave Hilary $225,000 last year.
    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/05/jeb_bushaffiliated_company_paid_hillary_225k_for_a_speech.html

    I think it will make it into attack ads on Bush.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    Ann Widdecombe in solitary confinement on '24 hours in the past' on BBC1 now
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,703
    notme said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    I'd be stunned if Out got even close to the vote percentage Yes did in Scotland. Straw poll of PBers? I'm for In.

    I'm slightly in. The overall value of our membership isnt that great though. But, if Cameron can get a few successes i'll be happy.
    Yes, I think I'm just about on the "in" side too, it's close though and "in" is going to have to persuade alot more than your's truly.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    I have a mental block when it comes to Rand Paul - an image of Ru/Roo Paul springs to mind. He's hosting a drag queen contest on C5 from next week for anyone interested...
    Speedy said:

    By the way HYUFD more Jeb Bush news, apparently a company he was affiliated with gave Hilary $225,000 last year.
    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/05/jeb_bushaffiliated_company_paid_hillary_225k_for_a_speech.html

    I think it will make it into attack ads on Bush.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,988
    HYUFD said:

    WilliamGlenn Hague's opposition to the Euro probably saved us from it, had Clarke beaten him to be Tory leader in 1997 we would have been in the Euro for over a decade

    Brown and Balls' five tests were formulated in 1997. If you believe we were saved, you should give them the majority of the credit.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Sean_F said:

    Much depends on what is on offer. And events. And how long the Government's honeymoon lasts.

    "Honeymoon", Mr Fear? That finished with all the policy announcements that Cameron´s ministers have made. The latest is that they are going to allow fracking in the national parks.

    The sooner this rotten government falls, the better. It was elected by only 37% of those who voted anyway.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    Let's face it, the conditions of 2001 will never come round again.

    You're right. Never again will the Conservative party campaign on a single issue which is of marginal importance to the electorate.
    Of such marginal importance that we're about to have a referendum about it.
    But the campaign was on so much more. Most especially economic competence.

    A leader needs more than just one string in their bow to become Prime Minister. Hague needed more than just the pound to campaign on. It was a decidedly poor campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    Speedy Indeed, the old are most out, unlike indyref when they were most No, but I think enough of the middle aged will vote In for In to scrape home
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Much depends on what is on offer. And events. And how long the Government's honeymoon lasts.

    "Honeymoon", Mr Fear? That finished with all the policy announcements that Cameron´s ministers have made. The latest is that they are going to allow fracking in the national parks.

    The sooner this rotten government falls, the better. It was elected by only 37% of those who voted anyway.
    Did you vote Tory? I suspect not. So I don't think it's for you to determine whether a honeymoon is over.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Plato said:

    I have a mental block when it comes to Rand Paul - an image of Ru/Roo Paul springs to mind. He's hosting a drag queen contest on C5 from next week for anyone interested...

    What does that have to do with Jeb Bush?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,826
    Whatever people think about the referendum it would help if the polls were at least close. If the polls show IN winning easily then Dave has no chance of getting anything out of the renegotiations (which might actually help OUT). As Sean F said earlier, a lot could happen between now and the vote. It will certainly be interesting to watch.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.

    And, on balance, I'm probably "out" for the same reason.

    I can just about live with the status quo in Europe at the moment, although it's a marginal deal from the UK perspective. But the direction of intended travel is clearly well beyond what I'd be comfortable with
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,990
    antifrank said:

    I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.

    That's interesting. I thought you were a very enthusiastic In.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,379
    edited May 2015
    PT That poll did not have Labour ahead, it also had UKIP on 13% and UKIP won 13%

    PT Of course in the Scottish referendum many Scottish Labour voters voted Yes despite Miliband recommending No
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    WilliamGlenn Hague's opposition to the Euro probably saved us from it, had Clarke beaten him to be Tory leader in 1997 we would have been in the Euro for over a decade

    Brown and Balls' five tests were formulated in 1997. If you believe we were saved, you should give them the majority of the credit.
    The five tests were meaningless. It was a political decision and the tests could be answered either way depending upon what answer you wanted. They were not independent empirical tests with a definitive answer.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I think it's fascinating how many of us are only Inners if something substantial changes. More than I thought TBH.
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.

    That's interesting. I thought you were a very enthusiastic In.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    edited May 2015
    PClipp said:


    The sooner this rotten government falls, the better. It was elected by only 37% of those who voted anyway.

    I think I'll give them a few more weeks at least - even the 'bad' announcements need not end up being as 'bad' as they seem once they actually try to do them.

    I also don't see the relevance of the 'only' 37% remark. I support reform to a more proportionate system, but until we get one (likely never), governments can survive and even thrive on such percentages, if it's not this lot it will be the next lot, so it's one of those facts which is true, but hardly matters.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    In with the Eu having to eat humble pie is the best result (and lots of humble pie)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.

    And, on balance, I'm probably "out" for the same reason.

    I can just about live with the status quo in Europe at the moment, although it's a marginal deal from the UK perspective. But the direction of intended travel is clearly well beyond what I'd be comfortable with
    Funnily enough I don't think the EU is travelling anywhere anymore. If anything does it will be the euro zone now. But the Greek tragedy has probably put paid to any thoughts of a European Superstate. The Dutch have decided now that they're Dutch etc.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Indeed, the old are most out, unlike indyref when they were most No, but I think enough of the middle aged will vote In for In to scrape home

    On the latest Yougov that asked the question the clear divide is the age of 40.
    Those over 40 are OUT , those under 40 are IN, the older you are the greater the chance that you are OUT.
    The turnout in the GE was around 90% for over 65's, around 50% for those 30-65 and 30% for under 30's, in a referendum you can expect turnout to be lower and skewing even more to the old.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    ICYMI
    The SNP’s army of new MPs yesterday found they were no match for 83-year-old Labour veteran Dennis Skinner.

    The Left-winger, known as the Beast of Bolsover, has represented the area since 1970 – and ran rings around the newcomers after they tried to steal his preferred front row seat in the Commons – which he wrested from David Owen in the early 1980s.

    Labour MP Kevan Jones seized a front row seat and refused to budge when police brought sniffer dogs in for a security swoop of the chamber. He held the prized spot for Mr Skinner, who was in place for the start of proceedings at 2.30pm.

    Mr Skinner said: ‘It will be a running battle. I’m not going to go quietly. I’ve never had any trouble in 30-odd years when Big Ben chimes. That’s what they have to remember. I am here every day and they are determined to try and get me out. It tells you a lot about them, the idea you’re going to throw out an 83-year-old after 45 years.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3088002/It-s-turf-war-Scots-Nats-invade-Labour-s-bench-retaliation-veteran-MPs-refusing-seats.html#ixzz3acNqDF6H
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Plato said:

    I think it's fascinating how many of us are only Inners if something substantial changes. More than I thought TBH.

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.

    That's interesting. I thought you were a very enthusiastic In.
    It's one reason I find the pessimism of many in UKIP at a Cameron led referendum, in which he will campaign for In as will most of the media, a little baffling. The print media at least will not be universally In I would have thought, the Tories at least will not be united on this, and the fact is that even more than in the IndyRef, a lot of those voting In are not very enthusiastic about the EU at all. Sure, it will be hard, but I think Out have a better chance even in such a scenario than many think.
This discussion has been closed.