Tebbit will be for Out (unless he surprises me: he's quite intelligent), Hannan will be for Out even if Juncker offered immortality and infinite ice cream, Redwood will probably be for Out, surprisingly Hammond will probably be for In (isn't he doing the legwork on the renegotiations?), Gove probably Out, Osborne probably In, Cameron probably In, Pickles for Out, Fox for Out, the 90's old guard (Heseltine & Clarke) for In, Major for In. Basically the pragmatists, financiers, banksters, big beasts and big business for In, the ideologues, idealists, and working-class/small business Tories for Out.
I sense that the euro referendum will be the biggest political betting money making opportunity since the invention of online exchanges. People are so wedded to expectations that have no relation to political reality.
Amen, amen, amen. We have no real precedent, a changed political landscape (4 million UKIP votes, the SNP), a discredited polling process, we're rushing the renegs, and lots of people saying they will vote "Out" but expect "In" to win. Could go either way. Somebody's going to get rich off this.
There is no way that 30% of the 2015 Lib Dems would vote Out. Maybe the 2010 share but the most pro Out people have already changed parties now. The remaining Lib Dem core are never BOOers.
"UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordinary day in the life of Farage’s party"
This has long been a cyclical pattern of behaviour within Farage's fiefdom at the top of Ukip, only difference this time, is that increased electoral success has brought far more media scrutiny. Patrick O'Flynn and Suzanne Evans are not just the latest political casualties to fall on their swords because they stood up to Farage, they also happen to be two of the strongest and most effective media performers Ukip has produced outside of Farage in recent years... Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless really burnt their political boats when they defected from the Conservative party to Ukip, so its interesting that Carswell won his battle on the issue of the Ukip short money while Reckless is now being offered a key role in the party after losing his seat.
Farage has long relied on a Ukip membership group think that has him as the one man star and key component to their growing success in the polls over recent years. But in fact he has long been the barrier to that widening appeal over the last decade. Just check out the amount of Ukip MEP's who have fallen by the wayside in recent years, or Farage's falling personal polling in the run up to the 2015 GE. Farage's last appearance on BBC QuestionTime as he defended his decision to withdraw his pledge to resign as Ukip Leader if he failed to be elected as an MP was a disaster as it laid bared his personal failings as a leader.
Ukip benefited far more from the former 'respectable' protest party of the Libdems entering into a Coalition Government with the Conservatives than they have ever done with Farage as their leader. Genuinely believe that Ukip membership are making a huge mistake by backing yesterday's man instead of Ukip's future potential leaders.
It's the public recantation by Patrick O'Flynn which is most disturbing. Eerily reminiscent of those 50s and 60s appearances by brain-washed pilots who had been shot down behind the iron curtain.
It is creepy. Makes me think of Winston Smith pledging his love for Big Brother at the end of 1984 after his time with O'Brien's though police.
You supported the prosecution of the NI bakers and then quote 1984, oh the irony.
I support the law being applied equally yes.
As I said at the time, if a commission for a cake is accepted and then rejected because of illegal discrimination then the case was valid, as the judge found. Just the same as if it was rejected for racial reasons - under laws that have existed for many decades.
As I said and nobody responded to, besides in agreement, if it had been an engagement cake with a picture of a black couple and a message saying "congratulations x and y" and the baker had accepted the cake then rejected it due to not liking blacks and being against black marriage due to their religion - then that would be illegal. Under laws that have been on the books for decades. This should be viewed in exactly the same light.
If you want to remove all these legal protections from everyone, whether black or white, gay or straight, male or female then fine. If you want to say a company is perfectly entitled to discriminate against Jews, Blacks, Gays, Irish or anyone else then you're consistent. If you think other discrimination is wrong, but discriminating against gays is OK - no sorry, I do draw the line there. That's not a brave moral standard, that is hypocrisy.
The point that's being made is not that discriminating against gays is fine, but discriminating against everyone else is wrong, but rather that people shouldn't be compelled to provide a platform for political views they disagree with, be it support for/opposition to gay marriage, support for/opposition to Irish unification, support for/opposition to the Labour Party etc.
Where the judge has misunderstood the law, IMHO, is to treat support for gay marriage as being one and the same thing as homosexual sexual orientation, which is obviously incorrect. You don't have to be gay to support gay marriage. Nor does everyone who's gay support gay marriage.
The correct analogy would be if someone demanded a cake decorated with the words "Support black marriage" and the baker refused. He would not be denying service on the grounds of the customer's race, but on the grounds of the political opinion which he was being asked to support.
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Viewcode Hammond may be for out unless he is able to get a major renegotiation
This has long been a cyclical pattern of behaviour within Farage's fiefdom at the top of Ukip, only difference this time, is that increased electoral success has brought far more media scrutiny. Patrick O'Flynn and Suzanne Evans are not just the latest political casualties to fall on their swords because they stood up to Farage, they also happen to be two of the strongest and most effective media performers Ukip has produced outside of Farage in recent years... Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless really burnt their political boats when they defected from the Conservative party to Ukip, so its interesting that Carswell won his battle on the issue of the Ukip short money while Reckless is now being offered a key role in the party after losing his seat.
Farage has long relied on a Ukip membership group think that has him as the one man star and key component to their growing success in the polls over recent years. But in fact he has long been the barrier to that widening appeal over the last decade. Just check out the amount of Ukip MEP's who have fallen by the wayside in recent years, or Farage's falling personal polling in the run up to the 2015 GE. Farage's last appearance on BBC QuestionTime as he defended his decision to withdraw his pledge to resign as Ukip Leader if he failed to be elected as an MP was a disaster as it laid bared his personal failings as a leader.
Ukip benefited far more from the former 'respectable' protest party of the Libdems entering into a Coalition Government with the Conservatives than they have ever done with Farage as their leader. Genuinely believe that Ukip membership are making a huge mistake by backing yesterday's man instead of Ukip's future potential leaders.
Where the judge has misunderstood the law, IMHO, is to treat support for gay marriage as being one and the same thing as homosexual sexual orientation, which is obviously incorrect. You don't have to be gay to support gay marriage. Nor does everyone who's gay support gay marriage.
The correct analogy would be if someone demanded a cake decorated with the words "Support black marriage" and the baker refused. He would not be denying service on the grounds of the customer's race, but on the grounds of the political opinion which he was being asked to support.
And if Farage leads BOO, expect it to be more.. he's doing his best to ensure UKIP are the party for protest.