Much depends on what is on offer. And events. And how long the Government's honeymoon lasts.
"Honeymoon", Mr Fear? That finished with all the policy announcements that Cameron´s ministers have made. The latest is that they are going to allow fracking in the national parks.
The sooner this rotten government falls, the better. It was elected by only 37% of those who voted anyway.
Mr Clipp,.. What were your views when Blair won with even less % than Cameron.. Yes thought so.. hypocrite to the last breath.
The five tests were meaningless. It was a political decision and the tests could be answered either way depending upon what answer you wanted. They were not independent empirical tests with a definitive answer.
And which answer do you think Brown and Balls wanted?
But the direction of intended travel is clearly well beyond what I'd be comfortable with
I think this sentiment is one reason why the bar will be so low for Cameron to win the referendum. He will be able to win over a lot of the soft out vote merely by being able to formalise the staus quo position of the UK being outside the central core.
kle4 Personally I think the best way forward would be for the UK to join Sweden and Denmark and maybe a few other nations like Bulgaria in a non-Eurozone outer EU grouping
kle4 Personally I think the best way forward would be for the UK to join Sweden and Denmark and maybe a few other nations like Bulgaria in a non-Eurozone outer EU grouping
Personally I think the best way is for the UK to join NAFTA which is much less trouble than the EU. I suspect that if that option was available on a referendum a clear majority would choose NAFTA over the EU.
The five tests were meaningless. It was a political decision and the tests could be answered either way depending upon what answer you wanted. They were not independent empirical tests with a definitive answer.
And which answer do you think Brown and Balls wanted?
In 1997 I'm not sure he was certain which is why he made the Tests suitable to be answered however he wanted. In 2003 he wanted No. So he answered No.
WilliamGlenn Hague's opposition to the Euro probably saved us from it, had Clarke beaten him to be Tory leader in 1997 we would have been in the Euro for over a decade
Brown and Balls' five tests were formulated in 1997. If you believe we were saved, you should give them the majority of the credit.
The five tests were meaningless. It was a political decision and the tests could be answered either way depending upon what answer you wanted. They were not independent empirical tests with a definitive answer.
The 'five tests' were just a bargaining chip. Gordon reckoned he could persuade Tone to hand over sooner if he allowed Tone to fulfil his European destiny. As it turned out, the polls always showed 'Yes' lagging by a mile, so Tone never dared risk the humiliation. Anyway, that novelty soon wore off and Tone discovered another place in which to fulfil his destiny: Iraq. And the world was never the same again.
I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.
And, on balance, I'm probably "out" for the same reason.
I can just about live with the status quo in Europe at the moment, although it's a marginal deal from the UK perspective. But the direction of intended travel is clearly well beyond what I'd be comfortable with
Funnily enough I don't think the EU is travelling anywhere anymore. If anything does it will be the euro zone now. But the Greek tragedy has probably put paid to any thoughts of a European Superstate. The Dutch have decided now that they're Dutch etc.
The elephant in the room is when the Eurozone starts voting as a block for things they have pre-agreed. QMV then means that gets imposed on the UK.
We've seen attempts to do this with the Med-migrants issue (shot down by the French, fortunately), with FTT and various other topics.
The sooner this rotten government falls, the better. It was elected by only 37% of those who voted anyway.
I think I'll give them a few more weeks at least - even the 'bad' announcements need not end up being as 'bad' as they seem once they actually try to do them.
I also don't see the relevance of the 'only' 37% remark. I support reform to a more proportionate system, but until we get one (likely never), governments can survive and even thrive on such percentages, if it's not this lot it will be the next lot, so it's one of those facts which is true, but hardly matters.
Is the glass half full or half empty?
37% is a poor result which could fall away.
But, it's a good result when you consider UKIP won 13% , and targeting of marginal seats was superb.
I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.
That's interesting. I thought you were a very enthusiastic In.
The EU has a reflex for big government remote from its citizens that I dislike strongly. I do believe that the European nations are most effective when they can work together effectively but too often they force false consensuses. Mechanisms need to be found to give more protection to the vital interests of individual member states without immobilising the entire EU, something that is becoming increasingly important with the necessary political integration of the Eurozone. Some of the institutions of the EU are of shoddy quality - both the European Parliament and the CJEU are stuffed full of second raters. The EU suffers badly from mission creep when it should concentrate on doing its existing tasks better.
David Cameron could do the whole EU a favour if he made them address at least some of those flaws on a permanent rather than a temporary basis. He has a strong hand right now. He should take care to play it well.
I am, of course, very much a fan of the four freedoms and I want Britain to play a full part in developing them.
WilliamGlenn Hague's opposition to the Euro probably saved us from it, had Clarke beaten him to be Tory leader in 1997 we would have been in the Euro for over a decade
Brown and Balls' five tests were formulated in 1997. If you believe we were saved, you should give them the majority of the credit.
The five tests were meaningless. It was a political decision and the tests could be answered either way depending upon what answer you wanted. They were not independent empirical tests with a definitive answer.
The 'five tests' were just a bargaining chip. Gordon reckoned he could persuade Tone to hand over sooner if he allowed Tone to fulfil his European destiny. As it turned out, the polls always showed 'Yes' lagging by a mile, so Tone never dared risk the humiliation. Anyway, that novelty soon wore off and Tone discovered another place in which to fulfil his destiny: Iraq. And the world was never the same again.
But Yes lagging was not a given; it was a consequence of how hard the pro and anti sides chose to campaign on the issue. Had Blair wanted in, he probably could have got it but it would have meant spending a lot of political capital which at the time he wasn't willing to.
In with the Eu having to eat humble pie is the best result (and lots of humble pie)
I don't recall the EU agreeing to eat humble pie before.
I've always been a reflexive supporter of the EU, but some of the cynicism of my Irish in-laws has worn off, and the typical arguments made in favour of IN (bazillion jobs, peace in our time, etc) are a dishonest pile of horseshit. If someone is trying to scare me into doing something my instinct is to rebel against that (though that also applies to comments those in favour of OUT make about the EUSSR).
Evening all. I'm not enthusiastic about the EU; it seems to belong to a past era, so I'm inclined to be a BOOer. However, I doubt if out will win a referendum. My actual vote will depend on what kind of concessions/exemptions our team secures.
Let's face it, the conditions of 2001 will never come round again.
You're right. Never again will the Conservative party campaign on a single issue which is of marginal importance to the electorate.
Of such marginal importance that we're about to have a referendum about it.
But the campaign was on so much more. Most especially economic competence.
A leader needs more than just one string in their bow to become Prime Minister. Hague needed more than just the pound to campaign on. It was a decidedly poor campaign.
I very much doubt that Hague thought he was going to do anything other than lose. The purpose of the campaign was to try to win back a modest number of seats (fail), unite the party after more than a decade of Euro-division (more-or-less succeed), and win the chosen policy battle on the Euro (succeed). The campaign wasn't great and that contributed to the lack of seats won back but I don't think that strategically it was that far out.
In with the Eu having to eat humble pie is the best result (and lots of humble pie)
I don't recall the EU agreeing to eat humble pie before.
I've always been a reflexive supporter of the EU, but some of the cynicism of my Irish in-laws has worn off, and the typical arguments made in favour of IN (bazillion jobs, peace in our time, etc) are a dishonest pile of horseshit. If someone is trying to scare me into doing something my instinct is to rebel against that (though that also applies to comments those in favour of OUT make about the EUSSR).
The best thing is to stay in but make the Eu accede to "most of " our demands. The EU will have to do this or Britain will be out, and they don't want that. Frankly it'll make little difference either way, Out will just mean lots of work for civil servants disentangling us from the EU..
10 billion is too much for us to have to pay to be a member of a club.
I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.
That's interesting. I thought you were a very enthusiastic In.
The EU has a reflex for big government remote from its citizens that I dislike strongly. I do believe that the European nations are most effective when they can work together effectively but too often they force false consensuses. Mechanisms need to be found to give more protection to the vital interests of individual member states without immobilising the entire EU, something that is becoming increasingly important with the necessary political integration of the Eurozone. Some of the institutions of the EU are of shoddy quality - both the European Parliament and the CJEU are stuffed full of second raters. The EU suffers badly from mission creep when it should concentrate on doing its existing tasks better.
David Cameron could do the whole EU a favour if he made them address at least some of those flaws on a permanent rather than a temporary basis. He has a strong hand right now. He should take care to play it well.
I am, of course, very much a fan of the four freedoms and I want Britain to play a full part in developing them.
Thanks. Were it not for the mission creep, I could be tempted to accept In.
Speedy Geographically though not very realistic, although I remember Gingrich suggesting it once
It will be the only trade deal to sail through Congress without opposition and with fervent support from almost every corner of US politics and business. It's widely studied and popular for years in American circles.
Speedy AV was a referendum on a complex voting system few understood and few were enthusiastic about outside the Metropolitan elite. EUref has as much potential to fire nationalistic fervour as indyref
Speedy Indyref turnout was 85%, no reason EUref turnout could not be 70% plus, key is the 30-65 year old turnout
AV referendum turnout was 42%. But if it's the same or less that the 66% GE turnout then I expect OUT to win.
AV never excited anyone. I'm surprised it was so high. EU in/Out will be much higher. Ireland's Lisbon 2009 was about 60 and by that point everyone knew they'd keep voting until they got the correct result.
SeanT 60%+ of Labour voters will vote In according to yougov, 39% of Tory voters will vote In, 42% Out, a UKIP surge is more ominous for the Tories than Labour
Speedy AV was a referendum on a complex voting system few understood and few were enthusiastic about outside the Metropolitan elite. EUref has as much potential to fire nationalistic fervour as indyref
I just can't see the EU referendum getting more people voting than in the GE.
Come to think of it, I haven't see reference to the EUSSR very much lately compared to a few years ago. I guess it got old?
I hope I don't rekindle its use, but it seemed a useful shorthand for some of the more paranoid responses to the EU, such as all the shenanigans about an EU army that was going on a month or so back.
All this talk about keeping Nigel away from the referendum, what planet are people living on. The only people with any credibility on Euroscepticism are NIgel Farage and UKIP, whilst the part time eurosceptics over the previous 40 years have achieved.. well a big fat zero.
Whole careers and good livings have been made by people like Bill Cash, the fake eurosceptic in chief, who campaigned like a true eurosceptic to stop the Maastricht Treaty, but when the chips were down his euroscepticism disappeared like a fart in a hurricane, and he meekly went through the government lobbies to vote for Maastricht.
Fake Euroscepticism is the father of the bastard child UKIP, safely delivered into the world by Nurse Cash, and it will ensure that in this coming fake IN/OUT referendum, the fake eurosceptics especially in the Conservative Party have their feet held ffirmly to the fire,.
But, it's a good result when you consider UKIP won 13% , and targeting of marginal seats was superb.
An increased vote share on 2010 was a fantastic result, even [especially?] if it was achieved only by cannibalising support from their Coalition partners.
It is a lot better given that Labour almost completely failed to close the gap, still 6.6% points behind. If Labour had made it to 35% in the end then that would have made a big difference.
The elephant in the room is when the Eurozone starts voting as a block for things they have pre-agreed. QMV then means that gets imposed on the UK.
We've seen attempts to do this with the Med-migrants issue (shot down by the French, fortunately), with FTT and various other topics.
That absolutely needs structural reform.
Cameron is seeking that reform, if he gets it then I think that is a very significant victory.
As for the Med Migrants issue, that has little to do with the French for us on that particular issue. The UK has an opt-in for any changes to do with migration or asylum (as do Ireland and one other Scandinavian nation too). The UK was never at risk of getting out voted on this measure.
SeanT 60%+ of Labour voters will vote In according to yougov, 39% of Tory voters will vote In, 42% Out, a UKIP surge is more ominous for the Tories than Labour
Disagree entirely. I suspect Cameroon centrist One Nation Toryism has secured a core vote of 32-35%, as the Lib Dems slowly die. They can expect to win elex or be in Coalition government quite regularly.
I have no terrier in this fight, I am merely observing.
It is Labour that faces the existential terror, from leftist Nat parties in the Celtic wilderness, and UKIP in the Northern slumlands.
Exactly, once the family tradition vote is broken - it ain't ever coming back...
I am instinctively in (what with being a conservative Conservative and it's most of what I have known my adult life) but every time they come up with another doozy like, as @Charles has said, the FTT which they seek to impose, I find myself revolting.
A few DM/DT scare stories might just be enough to persuade me out but burden of argument has to be high plus I want to hear concrete policy-specific concessions gained from Cam & team (eg. UK can opt out of the following...) on the in side.
All this talk about keeping Nigel away from the referendum, what planet are people living on. The only people with any credibility on Euroscepticism are NIgel Farage and UKIP, whilst the part time eurosceptics over the previous 40 years have achieved.. well a big fat zero.
Whole careers and good livings have been made by people like Bill Cash, the fake eurosceptic in chief, who campaigned like a true eurosceptic to stop the Maastricht Treaty, but when the chips were down his euroscepticism disappeared like a fart in a hurricane, and he meekly went through the government lobbies to vote for Maastricht.
Fake Euroscepticism is the father of the bastard child UKIP, safely delivered into the world by Nurse Cash, and it will ensure that in this coming fake IN/OUT referendum, the fake eurosceptics especially in the Conservative Party have their feet held ffirmly to the fire,.
Your language is why out will lose by a long way
I thought it was a live podcast from Speakers' Corner.
Farage is like Salmond was, very much the dominant frontman for his party. Like the SNP in the last parliament UKIP's focus will now entirely be driven by a referendum that goes to the heart of its raison d'etre, unless heavily defeated that will likely boost its profile further
Although if Out wins, UKIP dies.
The best possible result for UKIP is a moderately narrow IN win (say 58/42), which is the most likely result.
They can then fire up the fundamentalists (one more heave!) and becomes the SNP for the English WWC, and some middle class sceptics, thereby gaining 15-20% of the vote. This will eventually translate into seats; it already gives them significant influence (that is, if they don't entirely implode, which may happen, given recent ructions).
UKIP at 15-20% is is v ominous for Labour. The Labour party could be reduced to a core vote of 25%. Arguably Labour should be hoping for OUT.
Heh.
I think that's quite right. An Out vote may not be enough to see UKIP become a significant player (and as far as I'm concerned I think a narrow In is quite possibly the worst of all possible worlds).
A narrow out will be better than a narrow in. But I expect (and hope for) a comfortable In.
SeanT 60%+ of Labour voters will vote In according to yougov, 39% of Tory voters will vote In, 42% Out, a UKIP surge is more ominous for the Tories than Labour
Disagree entirely. I suspect Cameroon centrist One Nation Toryism has secured a core vote of 32-35%, as the Lib Dems slowly die. They can expect to win elex or be in Coalition government quite regularly.
I have no terrier in this fight, I am merely observing.
It is Labour that faces the existential terror, from leftist Nat parties in the Celtic wilderness, and UKIP in the Northern slumlands.
Centrist Toryism lives by feeding off the Liberals every second generation or so
I am instinctively in (what with being a conservative Conservative and it's most of what I have known my adult life) but every time they come up with another doozy like, as @Charles has said, the FTT which they seek to impose, I find myself revolting.
A few DM/DT scare stories might just be enough to persuade me out but burden of argument has to be high plus I want to hear concrete policy-specific concessions gained from Cam & team (eg. UK can opt out of the following...) on the in side.
I'm a very narrow in, but a few more stories like the migrant quotas or a whiff of eurofederalism would be more than enough to make do a complete volte face and start campaigning for BOO.
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
I suspect some of the 4million will be burnt by the fact that their vote was wasted. Maybe they'll move back to their original party, Labour or Tory.
SeanT 60%+ of Labour voters will vote In according to yougov, 39% of Tory voters will vote In, 42% Out, a UKIP surge is more ominous for the Tories than Labour
Looking at this recent YouGov has Con voters on 36% for IN, but if Cameron recommends voting for IN on renegotiated terms this increases to 61% of Conservative voters for IN.
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
If Cameron allows a completely free party stance and is fairly neutral then it would be easy to see the party getting back together with minimum leakage. However this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Labour - if the party leadership are enthusiastically in then we could see the family/traditional vote destroyed - which would be an existential threat to the very existence of the party.
I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.
And, on balance, I'm probably "out" for the same reason.
I can just about live with the status quo in Europe at the moment, although it's a marginal deal from the UK perspective. But the direction of intended travel is clearly well beyond what I'd be comfortable with
Funnily enough I don't think the EU is travelling anywhere anymore. If anything does it will be the euro zone now. But the Greek tragedy has probably put paid to any thoughts of a European Superstate. The Dutch have decided now that they're Dutch etc.
The elephant in the room is when the Eurozone starts voting as a block for things they have pre-agreed. QMV then means that gets imposed on the UK.
We've seen attempts to do this with the Med-migrants issue (shot down by the French, fortunately), with FTT and various other topics.
That absolutely needs structural reform.
AIUI, FTT applies whether you are in the EU or out. A US stockbroker buying a share in Siemens on the Singapore stock exchange would still have to pay the tax.
Lucian I agree the EU referendum will be all over the media and is a far more passionate issue than AV ref (though Denmark has managed to stay outside the Euro after 2 referendums as has Sweden)
I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.
And, on balance, I'm probably "out" for the same reason.
I can just about live with the status quo in Europe at the moment, although it's a marginal deal from the UK perspective. But the direction of intended travel is clearly well beyond what I'd be comfortable with
Funnily enough I don't think the EU is travelling anywhere anymore. If anything does it will be the euro zone now. But the Greek tragedy has probably put paid to any thoughts of a European Superstate. The Dutch have decided now that they're Dutch etc.
The elephant in the room is when the Eurozone starts voting as a block for things they have pre-agreed. QMV then means that gets imposed on the UK.
We've seen attempts to do this with the Med-migrants issue (shot down by the French, fortunately), with FTT and various other topics.
That absolutely needs structural reform.
AIUI, FTT applies whether you are in the EU or out. A US stockbroker buying a share in Siemens on the Singapore stock exchange would still have to pay the tax.
The FTT wouldn't apply to British markets if we aren't in the EU... It would of course apply if we were doing FTs in say the Italian stock exchange.
I'm a very narrow in, but a few more stories like the migrant quotas or a whiff of eurofederalism would be more than enough to make do a complete volte face and start campaigning for BOO.
I think the only chance for an OUT win is if people like Juncker or Barroso make ill-judged interventions in the campaign.
Evening all. I'm not enthusiastic about the EU; it seems to belong to a past era, so I'm inclined to be a BOOer. However, I doubt if out will win a referendum. My actual vote will depend on what kind of concessions/exemptions our team secures.
BOO should win comfortably. I will adjudicate within six-months.
Speedy Indyref turnout was 85%, no reason EUref turnout could not be 70% plus, key is the 30-65 year old turnout
AV referendum turnout was 42%. But if it's the same or less that the 66% GE turnout then I expect OUT to win.
AV never excited anyone. I'm surprised it was so high. EU in/Out will be much higher. Ireland's Lisbon 2009 was about 60 and by that point everyone knew they'd keep voting until they got the correct result.
To see the true interest in the AV referendum, look at the turnouts in the areas that didn't have simultaneous local elections.
Oblitus Indeed, but Juncker is not going to bow and scrape to Cameron and give him everything he wants now is he, he will get some token reforms and changes but probably not enough to convince most potential Out voters
Evening all. I'm not enthusiastic about the EU; it seems to belong to a past era, so I'm inclined to be a BOOer. However, I doubt if out will win a referendum. My actual vote will depend on what kind of concessions/exemptions our team secures.
BOO should win comfortably. I will adjudicate within six-months.
:track-record:
No way. A comfortable In majority. Farage crying in his beer.
It's the public recantation by Patrick O'Flynn which is most disturbing. Eerily reminiscent of those 50s and 60s appearances by brain-washed pilots who had been shot down behind the iron curtain.
Speedy AV was a referendum on a complex voting system few understood and few were enthusiastic about outside the Metropolitan elite. EUref has as much potential to fire nationalistic fervour as indyref
No it doesn't. Do you even believe these things when you write them?
Scottish nationalism has hundreds if not a thousand years of history, countless wars, legends like Wallace and is about leaving an actual country that has existed for over three hundred years.
The EUref is about whether we stay in a transnational sort-of-trade-and-somewhat-more agreement between countries. It isn't about nationalism, except to a few extremists who number about as many as those who get excited about voting reform.
Most Tories will vote whatever Cameron says, but currently I think that OUT is ahead if the turnout will be the same as the GE.
No they won't. In fact not a single one will do so purely because of what Cameron says.
This faith of the Kippers in the magical powers of David Cameron is puzzling, but rather sweet, especially since they spend most of their time telling us how usesless he is (or at least they did, until earlin in the morning of May 8th).
Chameleon Disagree, Cameron will have to lead the In campaign as PM and if he gets any sort of renegotiation at all, if it is a narrow In many Eurosceptic Tories for whom Europe is a defining issue will see him as a traitor. They may well have voted Tory in 2015 to get a referendum, no guarantee post a narrow In vote they would not switch to UKIP
For most Labour voters the EU is not a defining issue, some working class Labour voters are concerned about immigration, but Labour voters for whom immigration is their key issue will already have defected to UKIP
It's the public recantation by Patrick O'Flynn which is most disturbing. Eerily reminiscent of those 50s and 60s appearances by brain-washed pilots who had been shot down behind the iron curtain.
The Great Leader has smashed the splitters and wreckers!
Let's face it, the conditions of 2001 will never come round again.
You're right. Never again will the Conservative party campaign on a single issue which is of marginal importance to the electorate.
Of such marginal importance that we're about to have a referendum about it.
But the campaign was on so much more. Most especially economic competence.
A leader needs more than just one string in their bow to become Prime Minister. Hague needed more than just the pound to campaign on. It was a decidedly poor campaign.
I very much doubt that Hague thought he was going to do anything other than lose. The purpose of the campaign was to try to win back a modest number of seats (fail), unite the party after more than a decade of Euro-division (more-or-less succeed), and win the chosen policy battle on the Euro (succeed). The campaign wasn't great and that contributed to the lack of seats won back but I don't think that strategically it was that far out.
How did it win the policy battle on the Euro? Gordon Brown's "five tests" already ruled us out, and had been government policy for years. I'm a fan of Hague but really, he got every big call wrong, both as LotO and Foreign Secretary.
Evening all. I'm not enthusiastic about the EU; it seems to belong to a past era, so I'm inclined to be a BOOer. However, I doubt if out will win a referendum. My actual vote will depend on what kind of concessions/exemptions our team secures.
BOO should win comfortably. I will adjudicate within six-months.
:track-record:
No way. A comfortable In majority. Farage crying in his beer.
I look forward to you accepting my CY2016 bet. You show more balls than my CY2015 offering but - sadly - I fear another scalp.
Oblitus Indeed, but Juncker is not going to bow and scrape to Cameron and give him everything he wants now is he, he will get some token reforms and changes but probably not enough to convince most potential Out voters
No, but I think that there are a large number of Conservative supporters who are open to being persuaded that Cameron has won a big victory for Britain.
It gets more messy if, say, Cameron's Foreign Secretary publicly disagrees on whether the reform package is sufficient, and then campaigns for OUT - but those voters are there to be convinced and Cameron looks to be in tip-top campaigning form.
Oh dear. - Is that really the second perspective party leader this week to claim they were both too spineless to tell Ed he was leading them over a cliff? - Gordon Brown's premiership redux.
We all know how important leadership impacts on votes, we just saw what a crap leader does to a political party, so whats the big deal that UKIP is just Farageville at this point? He is still the party's biggest asset.
FPT. The UUP has only re-emerged so far due to doing what they should be doing even in the era of DUP dominance, winning a seat due to a pact (still a serious effort) and taking a seat in South Antrim thats very natural UUP territory and its previous DUP incumbent Willie McCrea simply didn't belong there. If the DUP had someone different in-situ you'd wonder if Danny Kinahan would have won it. As it is, now he is in, he has a decent chance of staying on.
Unionism needs competition to maximise its vote for the Assembly, it just doesn't need to be too bitter. The emergence of the TUV hasn't done any harm at all in terms of mobilising certain sections of unionism who then promptly vote down the card.
And completely unrelated to anything at all. I notice the EU trying to work out the subtleties of taking on people smugglers in Libya, something thriving in the divided state. Whilst the EU plays committees, few seem to have noticed that Egypt has been building up troops on Libya's Eastern border in order to deal with at least some of the messy situation to its west. It won't be alone in that venture.
Do not be surprised if officially or unofficially some European countries help any such operation, if the Egyptians decide to take the brakes off.
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
What Labour Yes voters? You seem to be under the delusion that Labour was the big party at the time of the vote.
The SNP got 45% in 2011 and then Yes got 45% in 2014. The EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE! Which Labour Yes voters are you talking about? Unless SNP voters suddenly started voting No to compensate?
I'm a very narrow in, but a few more stories like the migrant quotas or a whiff of eurofederalism would be more than enough to make do a complete volte face and start campaigning for BOO.
I think the only chance for an OUT win is if people like Juncker or Barroso make ill-judged interventions in the campaign.
If Cameron comes back from Europe with a tiny slip of paper saying the political equivalent of "please can I be excused PE this week" then Many Tories and many labour supporters will vote in the manner that they think causes DC the greatest damage.
I am more and more thinking that many EU leaders would like to see Cameron secure change as they have their own UKIP style problems at home.
Wether they can secure the real change required is a different matter.
The problem is we are likely to see a mid 40's V mid 50's vote outcome which is hardly definitive one way or the other.
Evening all. I'm not enthusiastic about the EU; it seems to belong to a past era, so I'm inclined to be a BOOer. However, I doubt if out will win a referendum. My actual vote will depend on what kind of concessions/exemptions our team secures.
BOO should win comfortably. I will adjudicate within six-months.
:track-record:
No way. A comfortable In majority. Farage crying in his beer.
If the designated OUT campaign promotes EFTA many of the IN arguments will be redundant. The argument for leaving can be made based on an increase in sovereignty, democracy and improved governance. It would become a positive campaign and not one which is based on immigrants, squabbling about how many millions of jobs will be lost and which businesses will be leaving.
If there was an IN vote Dave needs to explain what that means for us presuming he has not obtained an opt out for ever closer union. Further integration will be on the cards as the EU is in a complete mess.
We all know how important leadership impacts on votes, we just saw what a crap leader does to a political party, so whats the big deal that UKIP is just Farageville at this point? He is still the party's biggest asset.
He is. A problem may start to arise if his leadership, the bad with the good, prevents other assets arising, people and policy wise, which would be handy for them to have in addition. We shall see.
Scottish Labour didn't die in the last six months. The death was all but pronounced eight years ago.
The Scot Gordon Brown versus David Cameron put off the inevitable in 2010 giving one last impression that Scottish Labour seriously existed. As soon as Brown shuffled off though that was it. Labour haven't collapsed in the last six months, they haven't won a ballot since Brown resigned and even before then were losing except when it was "do we want Brown or Cameron".
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
I suspect some of the 4million will be burnt by the fact that their vote was wasted. Maybe they'll move back to their original party, Labour or Tory.
Perhaps I'm over-optimistic, but I suspect that Labour has lost tribal voters who lacked a positive reason for voting for them but would never vote Tory. The Tories, on the other hand, have lost people who disagreed with them on specific policies or personnel.
That's important because I think the latter will be easier to win back.
Earlier this week (at the Progress event) Hunt said that the reason he had not spoken out about Labour's poor campaign/prospects was that he had thought it was going well, casting himself as merely clueless (whereas Creagh, Cooper and Burnham avoided answering, and Kendall trued to imply she did what she could), which to my mind makes him an odd one to suggest he has the answers to any problem, given he claims not to have even privately spotted previous problems in advance.
If there was an IN vote Dave needs to explain what that means for us presuming he has not obtained an opt out for ever closer union. Further integration will be on the cards as the EU is in a complete mess.
No, you are confusing the Eurozone with the EU.
The Eurozone is indeed in a sorry mess, and desperately needs closer integration (perhaps after peeling off some of the peripheral members who are dragging it down).
That is precisely the opportunity for us. We have a veto on that necessary reform.
When comparing likely GE turnout with referendum turnout, and estimating based on the relevant importance people attach to the two votes, you need to factor in that for many a vote in a General Election makes no difference whatsoever. Whereas at least all votes cast in a referendum are of equal value.
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
What Labour Yes voters? You seem to be under the delusion that Labour was the big party at the time of the vote.
The SNP got 45% in 2011 and then Yes got 45% in 2014. The EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE! Which Labour Yes voters are you talking about? Unless SNP voters suddenly started voting No to compensate?
PhilipThompson Rubbish, opposition to the EU has aroused politicians from Enoch Powell to Michael Foot and Tony Benn to John Redwood and Daniel Hannan and Frank Field. Millions have voted for UKIP and their predecessor the Referendum Party, in fact more in absolute terms than have voted SNP. Many believe the EU is now the source of most of our laws and has destroyed Parliamentary Sovereignty. AV enthused Nick Clegg and Eddie Izzard and a few voters in Islington
I'm an in at present. I'm not immovable, but I don't want Britain to go in the direction that most of those who want out seem to want to go.
And, on balance, I'm probably "out" for the same reason.
I can just about live with the status quo in Europe at the moment, although it's a marginal deal from the UK perspective. But the direction of intended travel is clearly well beyond what I'd be comfortable with
Funnily enough I don't think the EU is travelling anywhere anymore. If anything does it will be the euro zone now. But the Greek tragedy has probably put paid to any thoughts of a European Superstate. The Dutch have decided now that they're Dutch etc.
The elephant in the room is when the Eurozone starts voting as a block for things they have pre-agreed. QMV then means that gets imposed on the UK.
We've seen attempts to do this with the Med-migrants issue (shot down by the French, fortunately), with FTT and various other topics.
That absolutely needs structural reform.
AIUI, FTT applies whether you are in the EU or out. A US stockbroker buying a share in Siemens on the Singapore stock exchange would still have to pay the tax.
That's what they tried to put in place. Then to ensure enforcement they made it the responsibility of the government to collect, with any imputted payments netted off against transfers made by the EU to that government.
It was a bullshit tax, about 90% of which would have been paid in London, and transferred to Paris and Frankfurt.
It's the public recantation by Patrick O'Flynn which is most disturbing. Eerily reminiscent of those 50s and 60s appearances by brain-washed pilots who had been shot down behind the iron curtain.
It is creepy. Makes me think of Winston Smith pledging his love for Big Brother at the end of 1984 after his time with O'Brien's though police.
Chameleon Disagree, Cameron will have to lead the In campaign as PM and if he gets any sort of renegotiation at all, if it is a narrow In many Eurosceptic Tories for whom Europe is a defining issue will see him as a traitor. They may well have voted Tory in 2015 to get a referendum, no guarantee post a narrow In vote they would not switch to UKIP
For most Labour voters the EU is not a defining issue, some working class Labour voters are concerned about immigration, but Labour voters for whom immigration is their key issue will already have defected to UKIP
How many days after 8th May and already we see the usual out of touch ramblings? Shall we take say Crewe and Nantwich? Bentley adding hundreds of jobs and millions of investment and expecting to double production to 20,000 by 2020. Shall we presume that these workers their families and friends and all the businesses that run off the back of the company and its workers are going to join the pied pipers personality cult?
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
What Labour Yes voters? You seem to be under the delusion that Labour was the big party at the time of the vote.
The SNP got 45% in 2011 and then Yes got 45% in 2014. The EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE! Which Labour Yes voters are you talking about? Unless SNP voters suddenly started voting No to compensate?
Did 100% of SNP supporters vote Yes?
On a one-for-one basis, yes. Proportionately any non-SNP Yes voters are matched against an SNP No voter.
If there were huge swathes of Labour Yes voters, then Yes would have won, unless the SNP's own 45% was dominated by a significant chunk of No voters.
SeanT I refer you to the result of the 1993 election in Canada, the Liberals won 41% and 177 seats, up from 81 in 1988, the UKIP-like Reform Party 18% and 51 seats, up from 1 in 1988, and the Cameron-like Progressive Tories 16% and 2 seats, down from 156 at the last election http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
What Labour Yes voters? You seem to be under the delusion that Labour was the big party at the time of the vote.
The SNP got 45% in 2011 and then Yes got 45% in 2014. The EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE! Which Labour Yes voters are you talking about? Unless SNP voters suddenly started voting No to compensate?
Did 100% of SNP supporters vote Yes?
I am sure 110% did.
Edit - *To any Nats reading this it was a joke about the fervent passion of SNP members and supporters, not a suggestion of electoral fraud*
Speedy AV was a referendum on a complex voting system few understood and few were enthusiastic about outside the Metropolitan elite. EUref has as much potential to fire nationalistic fervour as indyref
No it doesn't. Do you even believe these things when you write them? Scottish nationalism has hundreds if not a thousand years of history, countless wars, legends like Wallace and is about leaving an actual country that has existed for over three hundred years. The EUref is about whether we stay in a transnational sort-of-trade-and-somewhat-more agreement between countries. It isn't about nationalism, except to a few extremists who number about as many as those who get excited about voting reform.
And even if we were to leave we would still end up bound into a single market rules free movement of labour free trade area.
PhilipThompson Unless you have had your head under the duvet for the past fortnight Labour won 42% in Scotland at the 2010 general election, that fell to 24% in the 2015 general election as Labour Yes voters switched to the SNP.
RobD If the EU referendum dominates the political debate for much of the next 5 years then UKIP will have acres of free publicity
They have had it all week. Keep it coming I say. Who will be making the reasoned economic case for leaving the EU now? Geoffrey Bloom? Neil Hamilton? Some other rough diamond? Or some other crude nativist?
It is creepy. Makes me think of Winston Smith pledging his love for Big Brother at the end of 1984 after his time with O'Brien's though police.
Yes, and I'm beginning to find Nigel Farage's gloss on things very creepy:
"I was initially appalled," he said. "I couldn't believe it. We had a conversation this morning and as we spoke the tone got gentler. I understood he made a bad mistake, he understood he made a bad mistake and we move on from here."
It seems Patrick O'Flynn MEP, after a bit of re-education, now understands just how wrong he was to say those terrible things.
Comments
I suspect that if that option was available on a referendum a clear majority would choose NAFTA over the EU.
In 2003 he wanted No. So he answered No.
'The sooner this rotten government falls, the better. It was elected by only 37% of those who voted anyway.'
Does that also apply to Labour who were elected with 35% of the vote in 2005 ?
Stephen Nolan gets a slice of the cake - who else is there about nowadays?
We've seen attempts to do this with the Med-migrants issue (shot down by the French, fortunately), with FTT and various other topics.
That absolutely needs structural reform.
37% is a poor result which could fall away.
But, it's a good result when you consider UKIP won 13% , and targeting of marginal seats was superb.
David Cameron could do the whole EU a favour if he made them address at least some of those flaws on a permanent rather than a temporary basis. He has a strong hand right now. He should take care to play it well.
I am, of course, very much a fan of the four freedoms and I want Britain to play a full part in developing them.
I've always been a reflexive supporter of the EU, but some of the cynicism of my Irish in-laws has worn off, and the typical arguments made in favour of IN (bazillion jobs, peace in our time, etc) are a dishonest pile of horseshit. If someone is trying to scare me into doing something my instinct is to rebel against that (though that also applies to comments those in favour of OUT make about the EUSSR).
But if it's the same or less that the 66% GE turnout then I expect OUT to win.
10 billion is too much for us to have to pay to be a member of a club.
Here's the video.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/why-jeb-bushs-running-president-slip-matters-n358931
It's widely studied and popular for years in American circles.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/12/13/let-britain-join-nafta/
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/09/freedom-from-the-eu-why-britain-and-the-us-should-pursue-a-usuk-free-trade-area
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1399694/The-alternatives.html
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204791104577110163558996698
http://www.brugesgroup.com/eu/the-alternatives-to-the-eu-options-for-britain.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1346773/We-back-Britain-joining-Nafta-says-US-senator.html
Someone should try it.
We know that Kendall is short of the 35 needed.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/liz-kendalls-campaign-still-confident-of-getting-35-mps/
And I'm still supporting Graham Allen for leader as a protest.
It is a lot better given that Labour almost completely failed to close the gap, still 6.6% points behind. If Labour had made it to 35% in the end then that would have made a big difference.
As for the Med Migrants issue, that has little to do with the French for us on that particular issue. The UK has an opt-in for any changes to do with migration or asylum (as do Ireland and one other Scandinavian nation too). The UK was never at risk of getting out voted on this measure.
The same can't be said for other topics though.
A few DM/DT scare stories might just be enough to persuade me out but burden of argument has to be high plus I want to hear concrete policy-specific concessions gained from Cam & team (eg. UK can opt out of the following...) on the in side.
A narrow out will be better than a narrow in. But I expect (and hope for) a comfortable In.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993
UKIP would look to feed on Tory Out voters in a narrow In vote much as the SNP ate into Scottish Labour Yes voters (especially if Cameron leads the In campaign)
A US stockbroker buying a share in Siemens on the Singapore stock exchange would still have to pay the tax.
:track-record:
Ummmmmmmm....
Scottish nationalism has hundreds if not a thousand years of history, countless wars, legends like Wallace and is about leaving an actual country that has existed for over three hundred years.
The EUref is about whether we stay in a transnational sort-of-trade-and-somewhat-more agreement between countries. It isn't about nationalism, except to a few extremists who number about as many as those who get excited about voting reform.
This faith of the Kippers in the magical powers of David Cameron is puzzling, but rather sweet, especially since they spend most of their time telling us how usesless he is (or at least they did, until earlin in the morning of May 8th).
For most Labour voters the EU is not a defining issue, some working class Labour voters are concerned about immigration, but Labour voters for whom immigration is their key issue will already have defected to UKIP
:all-funds-2-FATJUGS:
It gets more messy if, say, Cameron's Foreign Secretary publicly disagrees on whether the reform package is sufficient, and then campaigns for OUT - but those voters are there to be convinced and Cameron looks to be in tip-top campaigning form.
FPT. The UUP has only re-emerged so far due to doing what they should be doing even in the era of DUP dominance, winning a seat due to a pact (still a serious effort) and taking a seat in South Antrim thats very natural UUP territory and its previous DUP incumbent Willie McCrea simply didn't belong there. If the DUP had someone different in-situ you'd wonder if Danny Kinahan would have won it. As it is, now he is in, he has a decent chance of staying on.
Unionism needs competition to maximise its vote for the Assembly, it just doesn't need to be too bitter. The emergence of the TUV hasn't done any harm at all in terms of mobilising certain sections of unionism who then promptly vote down the card.
And completely unrelated to anything at all. I notice the EU trying to work out the subtleties of taking on people smugglers in Libya, something thriving in the divided state. Whilst the EU plays committees, few seem to have noticed that Egypt has been building up troops on
Libya's Eastern border in order to deal with at least some of the messy situation to its west. It won't be alone in that venture.
Do not be surprised if officially or unofficially some European countries help any such operation, if the Egyptians decide to take the brakes off.
@JakeReesMogg: I am afraid I never bought "Mull of Kintyre". More a Purcell sort of chap. But delighted to meet you Mr McCartney @WingsScotland
The SNP got 45% in 2011 and then Yes got 45% in 2014. The EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE! Which Labour Yes voters are you talking about? Unless SNP voters suddenly started voting No to compensate?
"please can I be excused PE this week"
then Many Tories and many labour supporters will vote in the manner that they think causes DC the greatest damage.
I am more and more thinking that many EU leaders would like to see Cameron secure change as they have their own UKIP style problems at home.
Wether they can secure the real change required is a different matter.
The problem is we are likely to see a mid 40's V mid 50's vote outcome which is hardly definitive one way or the other.
If there was an IN vote Dave needs to explain what that means for us presuming he has not obtained an opt out for ever closer union. Further integration will be on the cards as the EU is in a complete mess.
The Scot Gordon Brown versus David Cameron put off the inevitable in 2010 giving one last impression that Scottish Labour seriously existed. As soon as Brown shuffled off though that was it. Labour haven't collapsed in the last six months, they haven't won a ballot since Brown resigned and even before then were losing except when it was "do we want Brown or Cameron".
That's important because I think the latter will be easier to win back.
The Eurozone is indeed in a sorry mess, and desperately needs closer integration (perhaps after peeling off some of the peripheral members who are dragging it down).
That is precisely the opportunity for us. We have a veto on that necessary reform.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=k4ixAfJ1LuI
It was a bullshit tax, about 90% of which would have been paid in London, and transferred to Paris and Frankfurt.
Shall we take say Crewe and Nantwich? Bentley adding hundreds of jobs and millions of investment and expecting to double production to 20,000 by 2020. Shall we presume that these workers their families and friends and all the businesses that run off the back of the company and its workers are going to join the pied pipers personality cult?
If there were huge swathes of Labour Yes voters, then Yes would have won, unless the SNP's own 45% was dominated by a significant chunk of No voters.
Occam's Razor.
Edit - *To any Nats reading this it was a joke about the fervent passion of SNP members and supporters, not a suggestion of electoral fraud*
Who will be making the reasoned economic case for leaving the EU now? Geoffrey Bloom? Neil Hamilton? Some other rough diamond? Or some other crude nativist?
"I was initially appalled," he said. "I couldn't believe it. We had a conversation this morning and as we spoke the tone got gentler. I understood he made a bad mistake, he understood he made a bad mistake and we move on from here."
It seems Patrick O'Flynn MEP, after a bit of re-education, now understands just how wrong he was to say those terrible things.