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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration wit
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015: The Inquest. A special podcast in collaboration with Polling Matters
One of the great developments of the campaign has been the appearance of many new online resources for analysis and discussion. One of these had been the excellent Polling Matters created by Keiran Pedley of pollster GFK.
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It'll be a few minutes before I can listen to the podcast, but it sounds like a good idea.
The BBC making a fool of itself on Radio 4 by asking why more women don't enter the Chelsea Flower Show garden competition. But why don't they ask why there aren't more people entering — men or women — from Stoke-on-Trent, or Wrexham, or Dundee?
Their future is by no means entirely in their own hands. If Labour choose an uninspiring left winger and deficit denier (naming no names...), then that gives the LibDems an opportunity to position themselves as centre-left, fiscally responsible, and not controlled by the unions.
And if the Conservative Party decides to implement the snoopers charter and legalise fox hunting, then the allows the LibDems to appeal again (especially if they drop their mansion tax proposals) to the middle classes in South West London.
Alternatively, if the Labour Party and the Conservatives both tack to the centre, it will be very hard for the LibDems to recover.
The next few rounds of council elections will be very interesting. The LibDems will be coming from a relatively low base, and with more members than they've had for a while, so they really should be making gains. If they cannot, it bodes ill for the party.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/599612546170097665
I think this speaks volumes as to why he was the completely wrong man for the job, the fact that his right wing MSM supporters did not indicate he should resign after what must be some sort of world record loss was also very telling.
Will Jim actually go in a month? - 50/50.
West Midlands region:
2015:
Con: 1,098,110 (41.77%)
Lab: 865,075 (32.91%)
UKIP: 412,770 (15.70%)
LD: 145,009 (5.52%)
Greens: 85,653 (3.26%)
Others: 22,322 (0.85%)
TOTAL: 2,628,939
2010:
Con: 1,044,081 (39.54%)
Lab: 808,114 (30.60%)
LD: 540,160 (20.46%)
UKIP: 105,685 (4.00%)
Greens: 14,996 (0.57%)
TOTAL: 2,640,465
Changes:
Con: +2.23%
Lab: +2.30%
UKIP: +11.70%
LD: -14.94%
Greens: +2.69%
Others: -3.98%
Swing, Con to Lab: 0.04%
But I'm pretty convinced you could have asked every single person in Britain who they were going to vote for and the only truly honest answers you'd have got would be from the Scots.
David_Evershed said:
In fact, by continuing and extending Lib Dem policies, David Cameron seems to be trying to turn the Conservatives into the Lib Dems - so no need for the Lib Dems to do anything other than join the existing Conservative party.
P Clipp responds:
The problem that Mr Cameron has is that not all the Tory loons, nuts and fuitcakes (or whatever his phrase was) have decamped to UKIP. Until they have all been cleared out of the Conservative Party, it is no fit place for a Lib Dem even to think about, let alone to be seen in.
On the LDs, I actually think there's quite a likely chance that both the Tories' and Labour will tack away from the centre, to both right and left respectively.
After having some hope that Labour might elect a credible leader, looking at how Burnham's campaign is going, and the support he has from MPs, I'm beginning to wonder whether Labour really wants to get back into power at all. On Newsnight this week, a Labour MP was the epitome of delusion in relation to the UKIP threat, seeing as engaging with UKIP voters as Labour giving up their values and principles. You can still be a party of fairness and equality, but still try to understand why so many feel disenfranchised by Labour, and its ability to represent the interests of the working class.
What Labour party members, and activists must learn is that what they like isn't necessarily what those in the Midlands, the South West, Southern Marginals, the North East, and Scotland will like. Labour also have some ground to make up in Wales too. I cannot, for the life of me see Andy Burnham being an inspiring leader. He seems to be relatively inoffensive, bland and dull. A nice guy, maybe but he hardly seems to provide any exciting, or insightful ideas as to how to move Labour forward. I do not understand how Labour MPs think this man will win them marginals that already require a signifcant swing to return to Labour in 2020. There is simply no way Andy Burnham will be PM.
I am torn on Yvette Cooper. She is a more preferable alternative to Burnham, but yet she also seems to be a personality vacuum whose political convictions are not too obvious. She lacks presence, comes across unconvincing when she tries to emote, and seems to also lack authority and an air of confidence. Given her political experience, this is a tad worrying. She does not have the Liz Kendall excuse of inexperience. Yet, courtesy of her husband she will have a significant core of the party supporting her.
Liz Kendall will be a beneficiary of Umunna's withdrawal, but I am worried Labour are not yet ready to change and deal with truths on economic mismanagement. You already have people pigeonholing her as 'Blairite', a word which is almost like a expletive in the Labour party. The only real hope, is, that a long leadership contest means Kendall has time to grow, and to challenge Burnham. A long leadership contest, gives Labour time to get into a mindset of reality, and make sensible decisions.
If Labour, however do elect Burnham then it's pretty much done until 2025.
The Tories look to be governing from the centre-right, rather than the centre when looking at proposals on the HRA, fox-hunting, the snoopers' charter, and a number of newcomers to government, such as Priti Patel, Justin Tomlinson, and Caroline Dinnage.
(en passant, Gib has full employment, no VAT, low income tax, free University education in the country of your choice, free healthcare, and little crime; George Osborne please note)
shut up, TSE! - and, um, since last August. I've been in rehab twice, and I don't
wanna be like people like Angus Reid, that were... and stuff like that.
I wanna be a survivor.
I mean I died again on Election Night. So, I'm not... I'm not... my cats' lives
are out. I... I just wanna say sorry to all the fans and stuff, and uh,
I'm glad to be alive, and sorry to me mum as well.
I just want them to know that it's not cool. It's not a cool thing to be
an addict. It's not... you know, you're a slave to it, and it took... it's
taken everything away from me that I loved, and so I've got to rebuild my life.
I'd like to see Hunt run. I'd like to hear his pitch.
Those in the West Midlands voting for:
Right-wing parties 57.5%
Left-wing parties 36.2%
Centrists/others 6.3%
Above the English overall score for right-wing-ness (55.1%). UK overall score 50.6%.
The LIberals trail the SNP by too many votes.
2010 Liberal seats and 215 SNP majority.
Orkney and Zetland - won by 728
Dunb East - 2617
Edin West - 3210
Caithness - 3844 (smaller than average constituency)
Fife NE - 4344
Ross - 5124 (smaller than average constituency)
Argyll - 8473
Gordon - 8687
Berwickshire - 9851 (third to Tory second)
Inverness - 10809
Kincadine - 11137
The only feasible targets are Dunbarton East, Edinburgh West. That's it. And in Dunbarton East that was a 82% turnout, there's nothing to squeeze and no high profile incumbency. Sorry but the LibDems are as finished as Scottish Labour. Without the money Scottish Labour will have.
Holyrood could be the final death of Liberal Scotland. The likelyhood is two seats - a NE List and Orkney. Even that isn't guaranteed.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCLdeFUW0AIHgZ9.jpg:large
As they used to say on 'Stingray', anything can happen in the next half hour.
I think the pollsters were measuring the wrong thing, I am not an expert, but would it be stretching it to say that it was rather odd that all the pollsters results seemed to coalesce?
http://www.capx.co/scottish-labour-has-suffered-an-extinction-event/
Now that Jim Murphy is finally leaving the building (or is he?), the right wing MSM seem to be building up Ruth Davidson as their next best hope at stemming the SNP tide. What these guys seem to have failed to notice is that the Scottish Tories faced their extinction level event 20 years ago and are showing no signs of recovery, if anything their older voter demographic is gradually dying out.
I think given the way Glasgow is likely to vote Ruth Davidson will be lucky to hold her own seat, let alone lead a major recovery in the Scottish Tories fortunes. She won her list seat in 2011 with around 6% (12,000) of the Glasgow vote, I don't think this would win her a seat this time around.
Look at this in the Telegraph re Tory campaign HQ where,
''work began before dawn, and the office was manned until late at night. Mr Crosby chaired his first meeting every day during the campaign at 5.45am, with a handful of senior strategists.
Another meeting would follow at 6.30am to draw up firmer plans for the day, before the third meeting at 7.30 each morning, at which Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne would be present, often via conference calls from far flung parts of the country where they would be campaigning.
The PM and Chancellor would listen to the plans, make observations of their own and then approve the strategy as recommended by Mr Crosby, who chaired every meeting, even when Mr Cameron was present.
A few hundred yards away, at Labour headquarters in Brewer’s Green, Mr Miliband’s team had not yet turned up for work.''
99% of people wouldn't even have the faintest idea of what the snooper's charter is - let alone how on earth it could affect them in any practical way.
Ditto the HRA - it may affect whether someone on the TV gets deported. It won't affect 99.999% of the population.
Anoraks will get excited. 99% of people won't even be aware of the issues and they will have zero impact at the next GE.
You don't have to rely on me - where did these issues come on the MORI Issues Index? Did any of them register even 1%?
(bearing in mind many commen ts on here)
''The story ran, to the Tories’ amusement, that Labour had thousands more activists, better trained and motivated, saturating target seats with Labour leaflets and election messages. “But there was never any evidence of them,” one senior Conservative said. “Labour must have been moving imaginary soldiers around or something.” ''
It's the constant balancing act for a political party, but the "playing to the base" that victory has necessitated will both re-encourage tactical voting against the Conservatives and turn off a few people.
1979 31.4% 22 / 72
1983 28.4% 21 / 72
1987 24.0% 10 / 72
1992 25.8% 11 / 72
1997 17.5% 0 / 72
2001 15.6% 1 / 72
2005 15.8% 1 / 59
2010 16.7% 1 / 59
2015 14.9% 1 / 59
SNP 2015 = Bloc Quebecois 1992
In that year, the BQ went from 10 seats to 54. It was their high water mark.
And we just sat back and smiled. Never interrupt your enemy when they are under-estimating you.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/i-know-voted-me-angry-5703584
(As well as 10,000 impersonal leaflets across Torbay ;-) )
(also did Leicester to Sheffield later the same year)
(also did Birmingham to Derby within the last year or so)
Wings Over Scotland @WingsScotland · 4h 4 hours ago
"If Labour loses Scotland, the Union will be done for. Jim Murphy must turn the tide against the SNP." https://archive.is/EQSOu
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-32762659
However, it'd be hard to see them being stopped.
If you stand out and are even more wrong than your opponents you are stuffed for future business. (Survation admitted so,, in not those words)
If you are in the pack and all are wrong, so what?
I looked at the polls and especially YouGov who hardly varied and concluded they did not reflect the real world.
I am of the opinion that the polls review will either be an anodyne whitewash or we will learn of some arbitrray "adjustments". I may of course be totally incorrect and all adjustments were logical, consistent and the fact the results were irrationally close just a co-incidence..:-)
I still expect Lib Dem gains - we're out of the Coalition that we were punished for being a part of in 2011 and a relatively small uplift could see us pick up some seats.
And when nights grow dim, a discussion on the military conduct of the Second Punic War is an inexhaustable topic...
Until the opposition can work out how to tackle this perception (and saying SNP Bad and SNP Government is Poor doesnt work) then they will be doomed to continued failure at Holyrood.
But hopefully not for a few more elections yet.
Gay marriage polls narrowing in Ireland.
Mixed evidence for late swing. What was intriguing but not developed was the idea there was crossover at conference time, which Labour then recovered.
538 says Survey Monkey called it right
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/surveymonkey-was-the-other-winner-of-the-u-k-election/
Survey Monkey had a very large number of respondents but there was no weighting to reconstruct a representative sample.
Survey Monkey might just have got lucky but one thing in that article is interesting and some of the number crunchers here might have looked at it in traditional polls. They did not weight for likelihood to vote, as they assumed anyone interested enough to answer the questions (without payment) was also likely to vote. Does anyone know what the UK phone polls look like if you take out the likelihood corrections?
How do you own a coral reef a thousand miles from the nearest mainland and if you can then who owned it first.
China's claims go back to the pre-colonial era at a time when the neighbouring states did not exist, and even if someone disagrees with those claims they don't have the capabilities to claim those reefs for themselves.
So in the end the reefs go de-facto to China, since no other is willing or capable to acquire them.
Back in the days when socialists were also Presbyterian ministers.
https://twitter.com/ARobertsonSNP/status/599648146545868803
Was IOS a Tory plant?
"The story ran, to the Tories’ amusement, that Labour had thousands more activists, better trained and motivated, saturating target seats with Labour leaflets and election messages. “But there was never any evidence of them,” one senior Conservative said. “Labour must have been moving imaginary soldiers around or something.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11609570/Secrets-of-the-Tories-election-war-room.html
Rome didn't get the empire by persuading the Gauls to join the EU.
In the real world the SNP administration, as led by Salmond, was the most efficient ever in this parish and the most controlled since that of Willie Ross. Salmond was a seriously great organiser and enabler of the civil service to achieve as opposed to excuse itself. It remains to be seen if the administration of Ms Sturgeon will be as able although the initial signs are promising.
Fancy the "radical left" SNP voting in favour of fox hunting alongside Tories.
That will be exhibit A in any Labour counterattack in scotland.
But if the numbers don't stack up, they may not want to vote against and highlight their weakness, and can always claim the moral high ground (it's devolved, doesn't affect us etc etc).