politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The UKIP implosion Part 2: Farage accused of being “snarlin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The UKIP implosion Part 2: Farage accused of being “snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive”
Last Friday Nigel Farage stepped down as UKIP leader following his failure to become an MP. After the weekend that was all rescinded when the party executive refused to accept it.
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http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/11/why_the_election_pollsters_got_it_wrong/
"Polling organisations will improve their fudge factors and they won’t make the same mistakes next time. They’ll just make different ones instead.
Whereas we, the electorate, will make exactly the same error we always do: we will believe that for once, the polls have got it right – and we will be cross when we discover they haven’t."
And short of expelling him from the party, what can Farage do? As with Short Money, Farage is powerless. Ooooh, that's gonna get under Nigel's (thin) skin.
Truth is though Nigel, seven times you have asked the voters for a key to the House. And seven times they have said "Bugger off!" Are you getting the message yet?
I don't see how UKIP can exist with such tension at the top. Surely someone has to go. Farage should have stuck to his original scheme. There should have been an open discussion on direction and leadership rather than a North Korean conception of the Dear Leader.
Incidentally North Korea does look worryingly unstable, surely due for a collapse:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/13/north-korean-defence-minister-executed-by-anti-aircaft-gun-report
Makes the LDs seem a sensible party :-)
Why should Tories be shy or Labour reluctant? It is far more likely to be leadership than some nuance of weighting.
No amount of weighting makes up for a bad sample, as the exit poll shows. We had far too many polls last parliament. It would be far more useful to have better random sampling with a reasonable size sample than to try to fix with another weighting factor. You cannot polish a turd. Incidentally constituency level polling seems even more innacurate.
I thought they consistently said they expected a Tory government?
Perhaps there was a clue in there?
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21651169-strength-your-handshake-predicts-length-your-life-getting-grip?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/gettingagrip
I'd have thought that was quite obvious. The Tory campaign of fear about Scotland paid off and the voters couldn't bare the thought of the Ed and Nicola show and I can understand that.
Personally, though, I don't trust Dave to be tough on Scotland and tough on the causes of Scotland so I voted Ukip in the parliamentary vote anyway (albeit the safe Tory seat of Woking). We all know Dave is scared of the Union breaking up on his watch so I expect plenty of pork to be given to the Scots to keep them happy.
Ultimately, Ukip have helped to reshape politics without winning power in Westminster. Without Ukip, Dave wouldn't have promised the referendum and, as we now know, they took votes off Labour to help secure a majority for the Tories.
Where Ukip go from here is uncertain. In a way I hope they don't become any more popular because that would probably mean the economy was tanking again or the Tories weren't keeping their promises on the EU referendum.
Kippers have made a virtue of extracting as much money as possible from the expenses system of the EU. It's understandable post-expenses scandal that Mr Carswell is very concerned such a mindset could be replicated in Parliament by his own Party.
"Mike certainly seems to be enjoying the UKIP implosion."
Although you seem unfazed, Mike's beloved LDs have hit a considerable bump in the road, so he can be a bit of a mardy arse at times. But the point of the thread is correct. Farage comes over as thin-skinned and irritable. His 'resignation' speech was less than gracious and throughout the campaign he looked unwell.
Time to take a long rest.
UKIP 3,881,129
LibDems 2,415,888
Truth be told: there is nothing particularly interesting, from a betting or a political story perspective, about the LibDems right now.
That will change. There will be a leadership contest - probably Farron vs Lamb. And there will be next year's locals (and 2017 too). But what story is there to write? This site survives - like a newspaper - by having content people wish to read. I don't think there's anything that anyone care to read about the LibDems right now, at least compared to UKIP.
The Tories (and Labour) may find themselves in the happy position of the team in second place collapsing for the second election in a row making a large number of seats safer and the Tory/Labour marginals even more critical.
Farage does not look well and did not for much of the campaign.
The step up from interested observer status to actual contender is really hard and in some ways is what destroyed the Lib Dems. All those nice observational chats pointing out the faults of others by Uncle Vince and the like suddenly became a Minister defending an actual policy in the real world. In an ideal world Farage would ask his NEC to reconsider their refusal to accept his resignation. He really needs a break and UKIP need new leadership. Not that a collapse in UKIP support is necessarily a bad thing.
I think part of that will include a deal to link the renewal of Trident to a re-basing outside of Scotland over the next 10-15 years. Like to Barrow-in-Furness.
Jobs in the north-west and shoots one of the SNP's foxes. If managed appropriately, it might even secure the Tories the seat next time. Win-win.
Edit - I realise now you're talking about a North England seat.. my apologies.
For nearly 20 years from 1994 to 2010 Labour had a formidable fighting machine. Even when they got hammered in 2010 they kept a remarkable number of seats and a platform from which they could recover (unlike the tories in 97, 01 and 05) and regain power.
How on earth did it come to this? A leader that people were frightened to give bad news to. A shadow chancellor not even warned that his seat was at risk. A campaign who seemed to believe that they were winning when they were getting thrashed. A functioning democracy needs a choice. When are Labour going to give us one?
It makes me wonder just how many LD voters were actually LDs at all - and their prospects for future council elections. It's looking very grim for a long time to come.
I expect UKIP's wrangling to carry on for a while to come - if Farage goes off for a bit, he'll either try to grab the wheel again or be firmly driving from the backseat. He seems to see UKIP as his Party - and he's not sharing the toys.
The row is funny for those of us that enjoy the detail of politics, but until something happens involving either Nigel Farage or Douglas Carswell being dumped on his backside, there will be no real world consequences.
Labour navel gaze for the next four months, UKIP imploding over troughing and the Lib Dems reduced to 8 MPs.
Great time to be a Tory.
"OGH (or dad, as I sometimes call him) is a journalist. He writes what is newsworthy."
Of course, but the venerable Mr Smithson Snr does it with some glee. Anyway, Being of a similar age, I'm allowed to tease him.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32726171
That it may also cause dissent within Labour between its local authority power base and the shadow Cabinet is no doubt coincidental.
Talking to a Labour guest about the exit poll, as the night rolled on "you'll be wishing the exit poll was right before long"
Ouch.
Remember Robert Kilroy Silk and Veritas? There've been a number of other splits in the past.
And Lord knows, the north needs some help.
The Govt's assumption seems to be that introducing thresholds will only be beneficial, because low turnout will continue and therefore legal strike activity will reduce. But consider the opposite scenario. That low ballot participation is not necessarily always a function of lack of interest. And that increasing the threshold may have the effect of increasing participation rates. And increasing participation rates would mean greater legitimacy for strike action. And if the Unions were as a result genuinely demonstrating that they were taking their members with them then their power as a result would increase and it would be harder to ignore their demands.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/05/12/farage-forced-through-leadership-confirmation/
But it reiterate my previous point the Lib Dems were a relatively small party with a relatively small operation. How on earth did the multi million pound operation of Labour get it so wrong?
Labour's brilliant ground game would destroy us in a second election.
Anyone know the Mayor's geography - is it the same?
Not sure if this is the whole thing or a taster of what is to come.
http://us6.campaign-archive2.com/?u=b7034b6517cfdcc8d4d4e60e9&id=780a0402bb&e=34b267752a
It's so unusual to find pieces where every paragraph asks to be quoted.
http://i.imgur.com/KBzp7jP.jpg
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9528312/inside-the-milibunker-the-last-days-of-ed-did-ed-miliband-sacrifice-ed-balls/
Friends, we all knew this would happen. Just as Farage resigned and three days later rose again, so he is being denied three times (by Carswell, O'Flynn and another to come forward soon, I expect).
On a more serious note, they need to sort this nonsense out. If it drags then it'll affect the In/Out referendum, and Out could easily be associated with 'those in-fighting oafs at UKIP'.
The immediate power of SociaL Services is worrying as evidenced by this story.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3080527/The-schoolgirls-snatched-parents-social-services-moaned-teachers-banned-watching-TV.html
I did not realise that other EU countries had put in place legal defence mechanisms against this happening.
"England and Wales stand alone in Europe in their readiness to take away children without their parents’ consent.
A damning Council of Europe report on child protection, published last month, warned: ‘England and Wales are unique in placing so many children for adoption, in particular in the young age group which is “popular” in its adoption market.’
It said 80 per cent of babies and under-fives ‘forcibly taken’ from their families by social workers are never returned, but are adopted by ‘strangers’..........
The numbers have provoked protests to the Government and to Sir James Munby, the head of the family courts, from ambassadors and government representatives of 34 countries, including Russia, Nigeria, Latvia, India and the Czech Republic.
In France, the Senate (the upper house of parliament) has approved a change in the Republic’s law to stop French children here being removed for adoption.
The legislation says: ‘Children of French families living abroad must be returned to France... in particular to avoid forced adoption without permission of the biological parents. This type of situation exists in particular in the UK.’
Slovakia’s Ministry of Justice is threatening to take the UK to the European Court of Human Rights after at least 30 of its young citizens — including babies — were taken from their mothers.
And the Latvian government has written in protest to the leader of the House of Commons because in the past three years, 136 Latvian children living here have been ‘illegally or forcibly’ adopted by British families."
The LDs will need to do their own navel gazing, leadership contest and debate about future direction, but I am glad of the pause first. UKIP and Labour are prime examples of how not to deal with the aftermath.
It is a very fluid situation politically, with UKIP having one of its periodic splits and Labour not sure whether to stay in its comfort zone or to move to a new generation. The Tories are cheering now but have a wafer thin majority and no one knows what will happen next in Scotland. If the cards fall right then there is potential for a strong bounceback for the LDs. I suspect that if Liz Kendall is chosen for Labour and Tim Farron for the LDs that we will see a tacit pact similar to Blair and Ashdown. When one of Labour and LDs does well the other tends to do so as well.
Interesting times indeed.
UKIP need to get a grip - they got lots of votes but only 1 seat and people will try to hit them hard and fast so they are not as much of a factor in this parliament as the last. Stay the course and cut the internal squabbling and the are still well set.
I went back to check the author, which raised another smile.
Who is the shadow cabinet minister who resigned (how did I miss that??)
Also:
"Another Labour insider told of the scene in the press office when Miliband posed with the notorious Ed stone, the 8ft 6in slab of limestone upon which his six key election pledges were inscribed. When it appeared on TV, a press officer ‘started screaming. He stood in the office, just screaming over and over again at the screen. It was so bad they thought he was having a breakdown.’"
a la Thick of It. Titter...
I do feel a bit for Balls. Looks like he was hung out to dry, despite how sweet his defeat was for us blues.
‘When the campaign started we were told we had to clear all leaflet design past the leader’s office,’ said one party worker. ‘We thought that would be a nightmare, but for the first part of the campaign it worked really well. We’d email the art, and about an hour or so later we’d get the response, “Great. Go with this.” Then one day someone got the message, “Excellent. All good.” But when they went to respond they realised they’d failed to insert the original attachment. All the time, Ed’s team had been signing off the leaflets without bothering to look at them.’
It is admirable that Carswell wants to be frugal, and wants to be seen to be frugal. If the party were wealthy, and this money were immaterial, it would be fine statement. But UKIP is not in that position.
Carswell is our only MP, representing 4 million of us. Why he thinks that would be easier to accomplish with 5 support staff, rather 15 remains unclear.
In other news, Osborne's devolution is daft: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32726171
English Parliament is the answer not this city devolution. And what about rural areas?
I'm rather confused about his various hats right now.
Smart Labour would want to move on from the Blair/Brown feuding. That should be as buried as history while a new generation takes over. Picking at wounds is no way to heal them.
Basically, his 'job' is just a nod to the fact that he's around but can't have anything proper to do until he stops being mayor.
Mr. Monksfield, I'm not sure whether he'd be welcomed back.
Carswell represents the people of Clacton, those who voted for him and those who didn't.
People who voted UKIP in other constituencies are represented by other MPs from other parties.
But it's probably just that rural areas are always ignored. He gets to attend the 'political cabinet' apparently, although in a single party gov I'd have thought it was the same. He gets to attend pretend cabinet I guess, after the real thing finished.
"So what did you guys talk about?"
"Not you, boris, of course"
The problem is that he's learning that what Farage believes in and what he believes in isn't the same thing. That's how party politics is supposed to work, there's a broad tent - but having left the tent once he seems to have less tolerance for divergence from The Plan.
Someone pointed out that although the US Presidential election is next year, the candidates have yet to be picked, but Labour are choosing a leader they expect to fight in 2020.
They will pick Burnham, and he will lose badly.
What they should do is learn the one lesson from Ed's 5 wasted years, which is ditch a loser.
If Burnham is selected, he should spend 2-3 years testing to destruction the notions that
- Labour were not left wing enough
- The unions can pick the right leader
- Anyone from Gordo's cabinet can win
Then, when his rating are at rock bottom, and it might be clear who will follow Cameron for the Tories, defenestrate him and pick someone who might have a chance
The Sun sort of agrees with me
@tnewtondunn: The Sun Says today: What Labour needs and why it matters http://t.co/XnzXkfBv7u