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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The UKIP implosion Part 2: Farage accused of being “snarlin

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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nicholaswatt: No 10: @David_Cameron expected to meet @NicolaSturgeon in Scotland on Friday

    Is it too much to hope that he also makes a major speech outlining the plans for FFA?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    watford30 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Arron Banks, Ukip mega-donor, tells @robinbrant that Patrick O'Flynn was "weak performer" in the election.

    Are UKIP going to split?

    Nige gets to keep the name, Carswell gets to keep the seat and the cash...

    It's similar to the various 80's pop groups who fell out with each other, split and reformed as separate bands in the 21st century to raise a bit of cash towards their retirement.

    There could be 'Carswell's UKIP', and 'Farage's UKIP' both appearing this Summer at the Pavillion Theatre, Cromer but on different dates.
    Haha good analogy

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anyone seen MikeK about ? still have a bet outstanding than needs settling..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    JEO said:

    isam,

    It is not vanity to believe that a political party should be more than a single adored party leader, with everyone else mere footsoldiers to do his bidding. I actually find it surprising that a UKIP supporter would articulate this as a vision as it sounds more like the criticism of an opponent. No effective organisation in the world runs like this: not in government, not in business, not in the social sector. All good leaders need to have an effective team around them who have input that is listened to and who feel they are part of the decision making process. If this is the way Douglas Carswell, a highly capable parliamentarian is treated, I can't imagine you'll win a single further defection. It seems like many are putting a personality cult around Farage above the interests of the party.

    And while I did not vote for UKIP, I say this as someone that is highly sympathetic, as I feel the policy arguments they make are often very strong. This has caused me to struggle to find arguments to persuade UKIP-waiverers to vote Conservative, but Farage is giving me a lot of fresh ammunition right now.

    It's the truth.. I don't know whether it is a criticism or not but the fact is that most Ukip voters will only have heard of Farage. Yesterday my mate called Carswell 'Carslake' and my my dad called him 'Carsdale'... And he is by far the 2nd most famous kipper

    Everyone's entitled to their view, none if it will make any difference anyway. But political geeks think Carswell is a genius and Farage a rabble rouser, well big deal

    As I say I like both but to imagine that Ukips success, and 13% of the vote is a big success as us the euro win, I was possible without Farage is crazy. Take any other kipper out of the picture and it would still have happened
    Take Farage out of the picture and the Lib Dems would still have collapsed, the BNP would still have collapsed and there would still be protest voters looking for a new home.
    So what?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2015
    isam said:

    Take Farage out of the picture and the Lib Dems would still have collapsed, the BNP would still have collapsed and there would still be protest voters looking for a new home.

    So what?
    So that's where UKIP got a bulk of its voters from. The notion that UKIP would have stood still while the other protest parties collapsed is just absurd, regardless of Farage they'd still be picking up a significant proportion of those votes.

    EDIT: Farage was as much as anything a lucky general. He stepped into a void, any half-sane UKIP leader would have done the exact same thing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Holbornlolz: HA HAH A HA HA HA HAHA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

    https://t.co/RmnBN5VGOp

    cuLt is the word you were looking for...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870
    I see no way forward here but for Nigel to properly resign this time. Was a great, great shame he didn't follow through before.

    What has happened to UKIP is not Nigel's fault, but success lies in dealing with the realities, not fairness or justice, and the reality is that a great deal of people's poor impressions of UKIP, real or imagined, are personified by Nigel, and will pass from the party with his exit as leader.

    In another twist, aparently the police are investigating the Thanet vote (though I suspect it's merely a formality).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015

    isam said:

    Take Farage out of the picture and the Lib Dems would still have collapsed, the BNP would still have collapsed and there would still be protest voters looking for a new home.

    So what?
    So that's where UKIP got a bulk of its voters from. The notion that UKIP would have stood still while the other protest parties collapsed is just absurd, regardless of Farage they'd still be picking up a significant proportion of those votes.

    EDIT: Farage was as much as anything a lucky general. He stepped into a void, any half-sane UKIP leader would have done the exact same thing.
    Spurs fans 'Harry redknapp has taken us as far as he can' as they lost in the champs league 1/4 finals 5 years ago never to qualify again
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    isam said:

    Take Farage out of the picture and the Lib Dems would still have collapsed, the BNP would still have collapsed and there would still be protest voters looking for a new home.

    So what?
    So that's where UKIP got a bulk of its voters from. The notion that UKIP would have stood still while the other protest parties collapsed is just absurd, regardless of Farage they'd still be picking up a significant proportion of those votes.
    Not so sure. As many people on the doorsteps referenced their temptation with "Nigel's forthright manner" as actually mentioned UKIP the party. He is much of the brand, in the way that Clarkson WAS Top Gear.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Scott_P said:

    @nicholaswatt: No 10: @David_Cameron expected to meet @NicolaSturgeon in Scotland on Friday

    Is it too much to hope that he also makes a major speech outlining the plans for FFA?

    Let's hope so - hold the SNP accountable for raising the money as well as spending it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mike Smithson retweeted
    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 19m19 minutes ago
    Matthew Goodwin ("Dr Ukip"):

    "There’s a saying in Ukip, ‘In the history of inflighting, Nigel has never lost.’ That goes back to Kilroy."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Take Farage out of the picture and the Lib Dems would still have collapsed, the BNP would still have collapsed and there would still be protest voters looking for a new home.

    So what?
    So that's where UKIP got a bulk of its voters from. The notion that UKIP would have stood still while the other protest parties collapsed is just absurd, regardless of Farage they'd still be picking up a significant proportion of those votes.
    Not so sure. As many people on the doorsteps referenced their temptation with "Nigel's forthright manner" as actually mentioned UKIP the party. He is much of the brand, in the way that Clarkson WAS Top Gear.
    Exactly.

    Hate top gear myself but the comparison is spot on

    Maybe Hammond and May know more about cars and real car people think more of them than Clarkson... Doesn't matter
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2015
    Surely the time has come for Rusty Lee to run UKIP? Or is she just a stalking horse for the eminence grise, the real power behind the scenes, the coming man? Step forward Lord Sir Admiral Robert Kilroy-Silk
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Scott_P said:

    @Holbornlolz: HA HAH A HA HA HA HAHA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

    https://t.co/RmnBN5VGOp

    cuLt is the word you were looking for...

    I'm now trying to imagine what a personality c*** would be!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Labour Press Team ‏@labourpress 2m2 minutes ago

    Piece on Labour by @DPJHodges in today's Spectator is utter rubbish and fabricated from start to finish.


    Who to believe?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Report says UKIP in Kent were barely on speaking terms with Kipper HQ in London for months before the GE campaign.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4439700.ece
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287

    antifrank said:

    Someone needs to set up the Independence Party of the United Kingdom at this rate.

    Hmm that would be IPUK Not great..
    The An Independence from Europe Party?
    We heard a lot about AIFE stealing lots of UKIP votes last year. I suggest those who still hold to that theory take a look at the result in Solihull this year.
    What about Party for UK Independence? - "PUKI"?

    Independence For United Kingdom? - IFUK?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IsabelHardman: Dramatic intervention in the Ukip row coming up on Coffee House shortly...

    I am worried this is not going to live up to the hype now
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Apologies if someone already posted this.
    http://tinyurl.com/q2xsz3y

    A statistician's take on the likelihood of a permanent, misleading poll bias, explaining it and echoing (and praising) the excellent Number Cruncher piece.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870
    TGOHF said:

    Mike Smithson retweeted
    Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 19m19 minutes ago
    Matthew Goodwin ("Dr Ukip"):

    "There’s a saying in Ukip, ‘In the history of inflighting, Nigel has never lost.’ That goes back to Kilroy."

    Inflighting? Is that what resulted in the light aircraft crash?

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelHardman: Dramatic intervention in the Ukip row coming up on Coffee House shortly...

    I am worried this is not going to live up to the hype now

    Here's Kilroy!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Labour Press Team ‏@labourpress 2m2 minutes ago

    Piece on Labour by @DPJHodges in today's Spectator is utter rubbish and fabricated from start to finish.


    Who to believe?

    Some bits look untrue. Ed Miliband's itinerary in the closing week suggests that someone thought that he was best deployed in seats like North Warwickshire. So the idea that Labour had no idea what was coming looks wrong to me.

    The bits about Ed Balls, however, sound entirely plausible.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Labour Press Team ‏@labourpress 2m2 minutes ago

    Piece on Labour by @DPJHodges in today's Spectator is utter rubbish and fabricated from start to finish.


    Who to believe?

    I believe the team who said Ed was great and on course to be PM of course.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    isam said:

    Take Farage out of the picture and the Lib Dems would still have collapsed, the BNP would still have collapsed and there would still be protest voters looking for a new home.

    So what?
    So that's where UKIP got a bulk of its voters from. The notion that UKIP would have stood still while the other protest parties collapsed is just absurd, regardless of Farage they'd still be picking up a significant proportion of those votes.
    Not so sure. As many people on the doorsteps referenced their temptation with "Nigel's forthright manner" as actually mentioned UKIP the party. He is much of the brand, in the way that Clarkson WAS Top Gear.
    Much as people mentioned Clegg prior to 2010 yet in that instance it didn't change that many votes. It's a case of post hoc ergo proper hoc.

    People abandoned two of the main protest parties. They needed a new home. They will then rationalise their views accordingly. Had it not been Farage they'd have credited whoever else was wearing his crown.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2015
    @IsabelHardman: Here we are: Source close to Farage says @oflynnmep has ‘personal problems’ http://t.co/ldloJuXDva - good scoop by @SebastianEPayne

    The same Patrick O'Flynn who used to be a Fleet Street journalist...

    Duck lads!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 16s16 seconds ago

    Here we are: Source close to Farage says @oflynnmep has ‘personal problems’ http://specc.ie/1bRJ74h - good scoop by @SebastianEPayne
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelHardman: Dramatic intervention in the Ukip row coming up on Coffee House shortly...

    I am worried this is not going to live up to the hype now

    Worry not ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Hmm, this is getting dirty http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/exclusive-team-farage-suggests-oflynn-has-had-personal-problems/
    The briefing war inside Ukip continues with the Nigel Farage camp hitting back at Patrick O’Flynn, after his remarks in the Times today. The battle is between two sides: those who are close to and work for Nigel Farage, and others in the party who are concerned about who the Ukip leader is listening to. Team Farage believe the battle is about power and influence with the leader. But the attacks are getting personal: one source close to the Ukip leader suggests that O’Flynn has had ‘personal problems and this may be the manifestation of them’.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    I actually agree with the argument that Farage is a huge part of UKIP's brand. But any political party that wants to establish itself long-term can not be dependent on one leader. At some point UKIP surely aspires to both leave the European Union and to play a role in the governance of the country. Neither can be done effectively as a one man personality cult.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870

    antifrank said:

    Someone needs to set up the Independence Party of the United Kingdom at this rate.

    Hmm that would be IPUK Not great..
    The An Independence from Europe Party?
    We heard a lot about AIFE stealing lots of UKIP votes last year. I suggest those who still hold to that theory take a look at the result in Solihull this year.
    What about Party for UK Independence? - "PUKI"?

    Independence For United Kingdom? - IFUK?
    Full United Kingdom Independence Today?

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 16s16 seconds ago

    Here we are: Source close to Farage says @oflynnmep has ‘personal problems’ http://specc.ie/1bRJ74h - good scoop by @SebastianEPayne

    As opposed to Nigel, who with Carswell as his only MP has personnel problems
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelHardman: Dramatic intervention in the Ukip row coming up on Coffee House shortly...

    I am worried this is not going to live up to the hype now

    Richard Desmond steps in and offers all the warring participants subscriptions to The Express and free jazz mags if they'll calm down.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    antifrank said:

    Labour Press Team ‏@labourpress 2m2 minutes ago

    Piece on Labour by @DPJHodges in today's Spectator is utter rubbish and fabricated from start to finish.


    Who to believe?

    Some bits look untrue. Ed Miliband's itinerary in the closing week suggests that someone thought that he was best deployed in seats like North Warwickshire. So the idea that Labour had no idea what was coming looks wrong to me.

    The bits about Ed Balls, however, sound entirely plausible.
    I thought the Balls thing sounded like cock-up rather than conspiracy. I simply don't get the sense that Labour felt any of their existing marginals were vulnerable to the Tories except perhaps Halifax.

    I think Labour expected between 25-35 gains from the Tories right up until 10pm on election night. Which explains why there was some internal leaking from them as several Labour bigwigs were mortified at the prospect of Ed trying to become PM on barely 260 seats.

    PS. Your election review is excellent. Mine will follow at the weekend.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Labour Press Team ‏@labourpress 2m2 minutes ago

    Piece on Labour by @DPJHodges in today's Spectator is utter rubbish and fabricated from start to finish.

    Who to believe?

    Surprised it's taken the Labour press team, 12 hrs to come back with a rebuttal? - kinda backs up the Labour campaign claims by Hodges?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015
    Morning all.

    I posted a couple of days ago that I thought we were now past peak Kipper. I hadn't expected to be proven so spectacularly right so extraordinarily quickly, and certainly not so entertainingly.

    Meanwhile Labour are in civil war, and the LibDems reduced to an irrelevance.

    The SNP need to start standing candidates in England & Wales, otherwise at this rate we'll be left without an opposition.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Take Farage out of the picture and the Lib Dems would still have collapsed, the BNP would still have collapsed and there would still be protest voters looking for a new home.

    So what?
    So that's where UKIP got a bulk of its voters from. The notion that UKIP would have stood still while the other protest parties collapsed is just absurd, regardless of Farage they'd still be picking up a significant proportion of those votes.
    Not so sure. As many people on the doorsteps referenced their temptation with "Nigel's forthright manner" as actually mentioned UKIP the party. He is much of the brand, in the way that Clarkson WAS Top Gear.
    Exactly.

    Hate top gear myself but the comparison is spot on

    Maybe Hammond and May know more about cars and real car people think more of them than Clarkson... Doesn't matter
    But no-one's suggesting that Nigel would have dissapeared from the scene. The people who like Nigel could still have had Nigel. The party leader tag would just have given someone else a share of the spotlight.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Activate Neil Hamilton!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Full United Kingdom Independence Today?

    Free United Kingdom, Un-united Party at the moment
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Wow, UKIP are behaving like lefties in their internal warfare... they really are going after the labour vote.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    edited May 2015

    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 16s16 seconds ago

    Here we are: Source close to Farage says @oflynnmep has ‘personal problems’ http://specc.ie/1bRJ74h - good scoop by @SebastianEPayne

    What a mess!

    They all need to go find a room somewhere with no windows and no media, have their personal arguments in private then come out and tell the world what they've decided.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870
    Scott_P said:

    Full United Kingdom Independence Today?

    Free United Kingdom, Un-united Party at the moment
    National Independence: Guaranteed EU Leavers

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Free United Britain to Achieve Referendum Exit Demands (FUBARED)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    They all need to find a room somewhere with no windows and no media, have their personal arguments in private then come out and tell the world what they've decided.

    They did that yesterday, and the outcome was Nigel still wants the cash and Carswell still says no, so here we are
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Free union, consolidated kingdom, opposing foreign freeloaders party
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited May 2015
    Dave could probably announce today he's taking us into the single currency and Nigel and UKIP wouldn't notice or care.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sponsored post on Guido - question is surely whether Ladbrokes or Chuka paid for it!

    http://order-order.com/2015/05/14/punters-think-chuka-is-right-man-to-fix-labour-mess/#_@/G9OTXOyqu0UEbg
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    JEO said:

    I actually agree with the argument that Farage is a huge part of UKIP's brand. But any political party that wants to establish itself long-term can not be dependent on one leader. At some point UKIP surely aspires to both leave the European Union and to play a role in the governance of the country. Neither can be done effectively as a one man personality cult.

    The similarities are with the SNP, who have so far had a very successful handover from Salmond to Sturgeon which has only strengthened their party.

    Compare and contrast with the last time Salmond stood down (in 2000 I think), when he was replaced with Swinney. It ended up with party infighting and Salmond taking over once again a few years later.

    If Carswell doesn't want it, who else aside from Farage can be leader? There doesn't seem to be anyone with a high enough media profile.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Tom Sutcliffe ‏@tds153 May 12

    Genuinely impressed that UKIP, a party with only one MP, has already managed a backbench rebellion. Respect.

    Ouch.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    A handy chart

    @GuidoFawkes: UKIP Wars: Who is Backing Whom http://t.co/44OdGCeqDN http://t.co/JKwWiv8Kxq
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870

    JEO said:

    I actually agree with the argument that Farage is a huge part of UKIP's brand. But any political party that wants to establish itself long-term can not be dependent on one leader. At some point UKIP surely aspires to both leave the European Union and to play a role in the governance of the country. Neither can be done effectively as a one man personality cult.

    The similarities are with the SNP, who have so far had a very successful handover from Salmond to Sturgeon which has only strengthened their party.

    Compare and contrast with the last time Salmond stood down (in 2000 I think), when he was replaced with Swinney. It ended up with party infighting and Salmond taking over once again a few years later.

    If Carswell doesn't want it, who else aside from Farage can be leader? There doesn't seem to be anyone with a high enough media profile.
    That's a good thing. It gives the putative leader a chance to try and establish their own persona before the media has a chance to do it for them.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Just the SNP for Dave to destroy now. FFA should do the trick. The prospect of Nicola announcing huge cuts to spending to gobsmacked supporters is almost too delicious to contemplate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    Sponsored post on Guido - question is surely whether Ladbrokes or Chuka paid for it!

    http://order-order.com/2015/05/14/punters-think-chuka-is-right-man-to-fix-labour-mess/#_@/G9OTXOyqu0UEbg

    I guess Shadsy wants the money on Chuka at 11/8 in a 5 horse race. Way too short, given that the electorate are mainly union members rather than party members.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2015
    For R Nabavi

    not aving an effective opposition is really bad news for democracy. It leads to bad government
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    taffys said:

    Just the SNP for Dave to destroy now. FFA should do the trick. The prospect of Nicola announcing huge cuts to spending to gobsmacked supporters is almost too delicious to contemplate.

    Not enough. I think he needs to offer a rebase of trident and some sort of co-opting of Scotland into UK foreign policy and defence decisions, now, or the Union is lost.

    Also, perhaps, a guaranteed 2nd independence referendum if Scotland votes to stay In the EU but the rest of the UK votes to leave.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    JEO said:

    I actually agree with the argument that Farage is a huge part of UKIP's brand. But any political party that wants to establish itself long-term can not be dependent on one leader. At some point UKIP surely aspires to both leave the European Union and to play a role in the governance of the country. Neither can be done effectively as a one man personality cult.

    The similarities are with the SNP, who have so far had a very successful handover from Salmond to Sturgeon which has only strengthened their party.

    Compare and contrast with the last time Salmond stood down (in 2000 I think), when he was replaced with Swinney. It ended up with party infighting and Salmond taking over once again a few years later.

    If Carswell doesn't want it, who else aside from Farage can be leader? There doesn't seem to be anyone with a high enough media profile.
    Well O'Flynn's 'profile' is all over the media now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I think this is O'Flynn vs Raheem Kassam

    O Flynn was meant to be running the campaign hence he stood in an unwinnable seat... Kassam arrived and seems to have Farages ear... He seems to have an uneasy relationship with many on twitter although he did publish my only published article when editor at breitbart

    THE MAN HAS POOR JUDGEMENT!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'Are the Tories prepared for this'
    Dave is calculating human rights will lose the left more votes than it gains them. The way his enemies are at war with each other he is probably right.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    It's Michael "Shock and Awe" Gove who's in charge of this, so on past form I'd expect a diversionary feint to distract them while his tanks penetrate deep into enemy territory before dawn.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    A handy chart

    @GuidoFawkes: UKIP Wars: Who is Backing Whom http://t.co/44OdGCeqDN http://t.co/JKwWiv8Kxq</blockquote


    Only thing missing from this very British self-immolation are deck chairs and a brass band.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    Yes, because far too many people are focussing upon the repeal of the Human Rights Act, and not on the other part, which is to replace it with a British Bill of Rights.

    I understand Dominic Grieve will be consulted on this.

    If Dave can win his, Ken Clarke's and a few other Tories who like the Human Rights Act then he should be ok.

    And I say that as a strong advocate of the ECHR.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504

    JEO said:

    I actually agree with the argument that Farage is a huge part of UKIP's brand. But any political party that wants to establish itself long-term can not be dependent on one leader. At some point UKIP surely aspires to both leave the European Union and to play a role in the governance of the country. Neither can be done effectively as a one man personality cult.

    The similarities are with the SNP, who have so far had a very successful handover from Salmond to Sturgeon which has only strengthened their party.

    Compare and contrast with the last time Salmond stood down (in 2000 I think), when he was replaced with Swinney. It ended up with party infighting and Salmond taking over once again a few years later.

    If Carswell doesn't want it, who else aside from Farage can be leader? There doesn't seem to be anyone with a high enough media profile.
    That's a good thing. It gives the putative leader a chance to try and establish their own persona before the media has a chance to do it for them.
    I don't agree. The media get to create the narrative, not the person. Compare with Sturgeon: she was very well known amongst politicians and journalists before she was made leader. She hit the ground running and had proven experience.

    But what bothers me most is what this means for the EU referendum. It looks as though the main party that will be fighting for out is more concerned with fighting itself.

    I'm veering towards BOO. But are UKIP in a position to lead that campaign at the moment? Will they be in a year's time?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sandpit said:

    Sponsored post on Guido - question is surely whether Ladbrokes or Chuka paid for it!

    http://order-order.com/2015/05/14/punters-think-chuka-is-right-man-to-fix-labour-mess/#_@/G9OTXOyqu0UEbg

    I guess Shadsy wants the money on Chuka at 11/8 in a 5 horse race. Way too short, given that the electorate are mainly union members rather than party members.
    I don't think Ladbrokes have paid for that - they are mentioned once. But if Chuka has arranged it somehow, then that would be an extraordinary error of judgement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    They all need to find a room somewhere with no windows and no media, have their personal arguments in private then come out and tell the world what they've decided.

    They did that yesterday, and the outcome was Nigel still wants the cash and Carswell still says no, so here we are
    Well in that case they left the room early and they need a better guard on the door.
    Do none of them understand that these are not conversations to be had in public?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    I notice that the Greens don't have a problem taking their share of short money.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    From the Times Diary


    The SNP is planning a stunt to annoy Labour on Monday. Several new Scottish MPs were overheard discussing a plan to get into the chamber early and occupy the front bench to make some sort of point about their party being the real opposition. Maybe Harriet Harman should camp out in the members’ lobby on Sunday night to frustrate their knavish tricks.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Labour, UKIP fighting like ferrets in a sack, when to do the Greens turn on Bennett?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Sponsored post on Guido - question is surely whether Ladbrokes or Chuka paid for it!

    http://order-order.com/2015/05/14/punters-think-chuka-is-right-man-to-fix-labour-mess/#_@/G9OTXOyqu0UEbg

    I guess Shadsy wants the money on Chuka at 11/8 in a 5 horse race. Way too short, given that the electorate are mainly union members rather than party members.
    I don't think Ladbrokes have paid for that - they are mentioned once. But if Chuka has arranged it somehow, then that would be an extraordinary error of judgement.
    Considering how negative Guido has been for "two faced" Chuka as he puts it over years it'd be a shock if Chuka paid for it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    It's Michael "Shock and Awe" Gove who's in charge of this, so on past form I'd expect a diversionary feint to distract them while his tanks penetrate deep into enemy territory before dawn.
    As long as it doesn't end up like Operation Market Garden!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    tlg86 said:

    I notice that the Greens don't have a problem taking their share of short money.

    Given their manifesto economics, I suspect the Greens don't have a problem taking money from anyone and everyone.

    From the Times Diary


    The SNP is planning a stunt to annoy Labour on Monday. Several new Scottish MPs were overheard discussing a plan to get into the chamber early and occupy the front bench to make some sort of point about their party being the real opposition. Maybe Harriet Harman should camp out in the members’ lobby on Sunday night to frustrate their knavish tricks.

    Funny, but unnecessary - I rather think the SNP have already made what points they need to make very strongly indeed!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    It's Michael "Shock and Awe" Gove who's in charge of this, so on past form I'd expect a diversionary feint to distract them while his tanks penetrate deep into enemy territory before dawn.
    As long as it doesn't end up like Operation Market Garden!
    I fear it might be Dieppe
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On the Labour leadership, I believe we now have four definite hats thrown into the ring: Andy Burnham, Chuka Umanna, Yvette Cooper, and Liz Kendall.

    Anyone think we'll get any more? And will those four all get enough nominations?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    Yes, because far too many people are focussing upon the repeal of the Human Rights Act, and not on the other part, which is to replace it with a British Bill of Rights.

    I understand Dominic Grieve will be consulted on this.

    If Dave can win his, Ken Clarke's and a few other Tories who like the Human Rights Act then he should be ok.

    And I say that as a strong advocate of the ECHR.
    Thanks.

    I don't think the UK needs any international arbiter of its Rights. A fully judicially independent UK Supreme Court would be fine. It's the lawyers who won't like it.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Can anyone see UKIP kissing and making up after this? Somethings got to give.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    It's Michael "Shock and Awe" Gove who's in charge of this, so on past form I'd expect a diversionary feint to distract them while his tanks penetrate deep into enemy territory before dawn.
    As long as it doesn't end up like Operation Market Garden!
    I fear it might be Dieppe
    Oh dear!

    It's going to be tough. The Conservatives are trying to implement a hard reform going against the existing established consensus.

    That will always generate a hell of a lot of heat and noise.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    They all need to find a room somewhere with no windows and no media, have their personal arguments in private then come out and tell the world what they've decided.

    They did that yesterday, and the outcome was Nigel still wants the cash and Carswell still says no, so here we are
    Well in that case they left the room early and they need a better guard on the door.
    Do none of them understand that these are not conversations to be had in public?
    I said above the fundamental problem UKIP have is that their top ranks are made up of people who've already abandoned one party. These are not loyalists so when the going gets tough they haven't got loyal discipline to stick together.

    There is a saying to never trust a traitor or adulterer as there's nothing to stop them betraying you if they've already betrayed someone else. UKIP's top rank is a party made up of these personalities.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited May 2015
    Fascinating interview with Patrick O'Flynn on Sky News.

    Says Farage is his hero, and he's not launching a coup, but Farage is surrounded by wrong uns
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137

    On the Labour leadership, I believe we now have four definite hats thrown into the ring: Andy Burnham, Chuka Umanna, Yvette Cooper, and Liz Kendall.

    Anyone think we'll get any more? And will those four all get enough nominations?

    I hoping Tristram will, for betting reasons. Will he be able to find a distinctive enough position to attract support? There's been wild talk of Keir Starmer. Complete break candidate.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    Yes, because far too many people are focussing upon the repeal of the Human Rights Act, and not on the other part, which is to replace it with a British Bill of Rights.

    I understand Dominic Grieve will be consulted on this.

    If Dave can win his, Ken Clarke's and a few other Tories who like the Human Rights Act then he should be ok.

    And I say that as a strong advocate of the ECHR.
    The BoR will as I understand it incorporate the ECoHR word for word. This should not be surprising as we helped write it in 1950-ish)
    The BoR will give parliament the ability to over rule the Court on some issues - I imagine on issues like voting rights for prisoners.
    But I do not believe we are withdrawing the right for UK citizens to take their claims to the ECHR, but it would not mean, as now with the HRA, our own judges putting their own gloss on the wording of the Convention - with the regularly reported absurdities we have seen.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 51s52 seconds ago
    Former Ukip MEP Godfrey Bloom has said it is time for Nigel Farage "to move over" http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-14/ex-ukip-mep-time-for-nigel-farage-to-move-over/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    It's Michael "Shock and Awe" Gove who's in charge of this, so on past form I'd expect a diversionary feint to distract them while his tanks penetrate deep into enemy territory before dawn.
    As long as it doesn't end up like Operation Market Garden!
    I fear it might be Dieppe
    Oh dear!

    It's going to be tough. The Conservatives are trying to implement a hard reform going against the existing established consensus.

    That will always generate a hell of a lot of heat and noise.
    Dieppe was a disaster, but we learned the lessons, and a couple of years, we used that knowledge at Normandy
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Fascinating interview with Patrick O'Flynn on Sky News.

    Says Farage is his hero, and he's not launching a coup, but Farage is surrounded by wrong uns

    I wouldn't listen to O'Flynn - he is "a scribbler with a single tier education"!

    Extraordinary. Something's gotta give today.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2015/05/ukip-in-fighting-intensifies-oflynn-is-totally-inexperienced-a-scribbler-with-a-single-tier-education.html
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    I think this is O'Flynn vs Raheem Kassam

    O Flynn was meant to be running the campaign hence he stood in an unwinnable seat... Kassam arrived and seems to have Farages ear... He seems to have an uneasy relationship with many on twitter although he did publish my only published article when editor at breitbart

    THE MAN HAS POOR JUDGEMENT!

    Which man? You don't make that clear, isam.
    O'Flynn has made his anger, justifiable or not, public, which in its self is a disservice to UKIP. Sad state of affairs. :(
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman

    Looks like someone will be leaving Ukip by the end of the day.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302

    Activate Neil Hamilton!

    At this rate Kilroy-Silk will be planning his next political comeback.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited May 2015

    Fascinating interview with Patrick O'Flynn on Sky News.

    Says Farage is his hero, and he's not launching a coup, but Farage is surrounded by wrong uns

    Ah yes the 'evil adviser' school of passive rebellion, oft used throughout history to explain how resistance to, say, monarch, is not actually treasonous at all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    This past week has been a dream for us PB Tories hasn't it?

    Everything we dreamed would happen, is is happening.

    All we need now is for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to defect to the Tories.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    For R Nabavi

    not having an effective opposition is really bad news for democracy. It leads to bad government

    Oh spare us that old canard.
    Big majority bad. Poor opposition bad. Minority govt bad. Coalition bad.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    This past week has been a dream for us PB Tories hasn't it?

    Everything we dreamed would happen, is is happening.

    All we need now is for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to defect to the Tories.

    You must be in seventh heaven TSE. Won't last though, nothing does. Sigh!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    From reading the (highly unrepresentative) facebook and Twitter, the Left seem to be mobilising very quickly to resist the repeal of the Human Rights Act as their casus belli. They are choosing their battles.

    Are the Tories prepared for this?

    There is a PR battle to be won, and they need to start making the case or I could easily see getting picked apart in committee by the SNP and the Lords grinding it to a halt.

    Yes, because far too many people are focussing upon the repeal of the Human Rights Act, and not on the other part, which is to replace it with a British Bill of Rights.

    I understand Dominic Grieve will be consulted on this.

    If Dave can win his, Ken Clarke's and a few other Tories who like the Human Rights Act then he should be ok.

    And I say that as a strong advocate of the ECHR.
    The BoR will as I understand it incorporate the ECoHR word for word. This should not be surprising as we helped write it in 1950-ish)
    The BoR will give parliament the ability to over rule the Court on some issues - I imagine on issues like voting rights for prisoners.
    But I do not believe we are withdrawing the right for UK citizens to take their claims to the ECHR, but it would not mean, as now with the HRA, our own judges putting their own gloss on the wording of the Convention - with the regularly reported absurdities we have seen.
    That makes sense. It's putting boundaries on international extra-judicial activism that seems key to me here.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    This past week has been a dream for us PB Tories hasn't it?

    Everything we dreamed would happen, is is happening.

    All we need now is for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to defect to the Tories.

    1 week down, 259 to go 'til we get to vote again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    MikeK said:

    This past week has been a dream for us PB Tories hasn't it?

    Everything we dreamed would happen, is is happening.

    All we need now is for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to defect to the Tories.

    You must be in seventh heaven TSE. Won't last though, nothing does. Sigh!!
    Yup, I'm enjoying it whilst it lasts.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If anyone wants an early bet for the next election, I'll offer £10 at evens that UKIP will get less votes at the next election than they did at this one. Any takers? Happy to exchange details.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015
    MikeK said:

    isam said:

    I think this is O'Flynn vs Raheem Kassam

    O Flynn was meant to be running the campaign hence he stood in an unwinnable seat... Kassam arrived and seems to have Farages ear... He seems to have an uneasy relationship with many on twitter although he did publish my only published article when editor at breitbart

    THE MAN HAS POOR JUDGEMENT!

    Which man? You don't make that clear, isam.
    O'Flynn has made his anger, justifiable or not, public, which in its self is a disservice to UKIP. Sad state of affairs. :(
    Raheem Kassam... He was editor of Breitbart when I had a blog published on there. Never met him wouldn't know anything about him really.

    I have met O'Flynn and he is a v engaging nice guy plus I think he likes a punt!
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    antifrank said:

    Oh, and Nigel Farage is on Question Time tonight. That should be enjoyable.

    No five-letter words, Nigel
    I'm actually struggling to think of any five-letter insults. Four and six letter insults I can think of plenty but the only five letter insult that comes to mind is "lefty".
    Twunt is a good one
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Nothing wrong with the fact that Farage didn't go to university, but if his people really want to attack others for having a 'single-tier education' it deserves noting...

    O'Flynn went to King's College, Cambridge!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Jonathan said:

    This past week has been a dream for us PB Tories hasn't it?

    Everything we dreamed would happen, is is happening.

    All we need now is for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to defect to the Tories.

    1 week down, 259 to go 'til we get to vote again.
    Jonathan said:

    This past week has been a dream for us PB Tories hasn't it?

    Everything we dreamed would happen, is is happening.

    All we need now is for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to defect to the Tories.

    1 week down, 259 to go 'til we get to vote again.
    Are you not a Labour Party member and able to vote in the leadership election, Jonathan?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Morning all.

    I posted a couple of days ago that I thought we were now past peak Kipper. I hadn't expected to be proven so spectacularly right so extraordinarily quickly, and certainly not so entertainingly.

    Meanwhile Labour are in civil war, and the LibDems reduced to an irrelevance.

    The SNP need to start standing candidates in England & Wales, otherwise at this rate we'll be left without an opposition.

    And think of the Short Money available ! :-)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    This past week has been a dream for us PB Tories hasn't it?

    Everything we dreamed would happen, is is happening.

    All we need now is for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond to defect to the Tories.

    1 week down, 259 to go 'til we get to vote again.
    260 to go. Don't forget an extra day each year and there's two leap years so there's 260 to go.
This discussion has been closed.