politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Cameron might rue the day that his party was reluctant
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Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648
That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.0 -
For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.currystar said:
As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.JonathanD said:"During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....
One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."TheScreamingEagles said:@wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne
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Swindon North not a marginal any more by any stretch of the imagination (22.6% majority)HYUFD said:Isam I believe he launched it in marginal Swindon, with the video alongside. However whether he becomes Labour leader and PM will depend on his message and his appeal to floating voters in the suburbs, not the quality of his video on Facebook, as well as who the Tory leader is (Osborne would be far less effective than Cameron, despite his qualities as Chancellor) and the impact of the EU referendum on Tory Out voters and UKIP
And Swindon S would now only go red on a terrrrible night for the conservatives...(would need 5.9% swing)0 -
If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.0
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We heard all the same arguments when mandatory ballots before strikes were brought in in the 1980s. If these latest reforms are introduced I expect that the said arguments/prognostications will prove as valid now as they did then.Bob__Sykes said:Short of introducing a new poll tax, I can't think of much the Tories could do that would blot their copybook at the first opportunity more than introducing legislation to clamp down on strikes.
Left outraged, ordinary workers (some who voted Tory) might be nonplussed, and it would be a red rag (or a yellow one) to the Scots, to whom it would apply.
Hm. Interesting choice.0 -
Also awaiting confirmation that Paul O'Grady has effed off to Spain, as promised....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Has Paddy eaten his hat yet?felix said:
"expulsion of members for poor conduct" - Would that get rid of Pants down?OblitusSumMe said:For reference, this is what was in the Conservative Manifesto on the House of Lords:
"We will ensure that the House of Lords fulfils its valuable role as a chamber of legislative scrutiny and revision.
While we still see a strong case for introducing an elected element into our second chamber, this is not a priority in the next Parliament. We have already allowed for expulsion of members for poor conduct and will ensure the House of Lords continues to work well by addressing issues such as the size of the chamber and the retirement of peers."
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she practicing for her career outside politics then or does she just think she is a comedian.Scott_P said:@davidjhgardiner: Ruth Davidson on Nicola Sturgeon "If I had a pound for every time she said 'Tories' today I'd be on her wages". #FMQs
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He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last Octoberwatford30 said:
For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.currystar said:
As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.JonathanD said:"During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....
One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."TheScreamingEagles said:@wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_leadership_election_announced
Thought you would have kept a keen watch on facts before posting0 -
Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.malcolmg said:
Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,AndyJS said:
I think Sunil's only joking!Tissue_Price said:
Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...Sunil_Prasannan said:
She looks OK tooAndyJS said:Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?
Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.0 -
Good point. That can be addressed.isam said:
Don't use the same postal or IP address...antifrank said:
I think my other half is soon going to develop a keen interest in political betting.isam said:
Might start to get a bit aggravating when everyone on here is banging on about massive value bets available to those w accounts w all firms across the oddschecker page eh?antifrank said:
Welcome to my world0 -
Butcher as Labour leader would be a fantastic outcome for Tories. This is the man who wanted the Mid Staffs report suppressed because it criticised the producer interest.Bob__Sykes said:Delighted Chuka is standing.
Burnham worries me - he's "proper Labour", and a "real person", and would have northerners and working class voters flocking back to Labour.
Chuka won't. He'll have them flocking to UKIP, or staying with Dave if they're already there.
If it had been left to Butcher, we still wouldn't know about old ladies drinking from flower vases and then starving to death in their own poo. This might harm the reputation of the hospital, see?0 -
I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.Morris_Dancer said:Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):
twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648
That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.0 -
So only 328,000 to regain then.Pulpstar said:In Scotland Labour only lost 328,000 votes and yet it cost them 40 seats....
Scottish Labour's famed efficiency of the vote became an utter disaster of wasted votes this time round.
Job done.0 -
I only she said she looked "OK"Tissue_Price said:
Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.malcolmg said:
Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,AndyJS said:
I think Sunil's only joking!Tissue_Price said:
Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...Sunil_Prasannan said:
She looks OK tooAndyJS said:Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?
Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know. 0 -
He resigned last week.isam said:
He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last Octoberwatford30 said:
For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.currystar said:
As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.JonathanD said:"During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....
One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."TheScreamingEagles said:@wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_leadership_election_announced
Thought you would have kept a keen watch on facts before posting
Do you not think a vote would be more democratic than Nigel simply telling the NEC that they should beg him to take the job back as the sky would fall in without him?
'All hail the Mighty, Kim Jong-Farage!'0 -
Squeaky George will be a laughScott_P said:@BethRigby: positioning his chosen successor? PM spokesman confirms Osborne will take PMQs when Cameron away
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I agree with you.Tissue_Price said:
Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.malcolmg said:
Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,AndyJS said:
I think Sunil's only joking!Tissue_Price said:
Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...Sunil_Prasannan said:
She looks OK tooAndyJS said:Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?
Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.0 -
Scottish Tories hate folk mentioning the Tories, it reminds the electorate that they're Scottish...err...Tories.malcolmg said:
she practicing for her career outside politics then or does she just think she is a comedian.Scott_P said:@davidjhgardiner: Ruth Davidson on Nicola Sturgeon "If I had a pound for every time she said 'Tories' today I'd be on her wages". #FMQs
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It doesn't look that safe. A Leyton ('65) swing would lose it.Lennon said:
Has anyone confirmed Robinson is standing down or is it all just theoretical 'how to get Balls back?'Pulpstar said:If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leyton_by-election,_19650 -
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Presumably he would have had no difficulty winning a new election this Autumn then? Claiming he has the support of UKIP members but not actually bothering to check isn't the most honest.isam said:
He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last Octoberwatford30 said:
For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.currystar said:
As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.JonathanD said:"During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....
One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."TheScreamingEagles said:@wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne
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If she stands. Even then I think Andy B would beat her in the end, on second and third preferences. He's very popular in the party, for reasons which are invisible to me (but that's probably a positive indicator for betting purposes).Tissue_Price said:I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.
I think the best bet at the moment is probably to lay Chuka, who looks much too short to me, but since I'm already on the other main contenders, I'm doing that by default rather than explicitly.0 -
I do agree it is very childish but given some of the stuff I post I cannot really criticise.Tissue_Price said:
Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.malcolmg said:
Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,AndyJS said:
I think Sunil's only joking!Tissue_Price said:
Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...Sunil_Prasannan said:
She looks OK tooAndyJS said:Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?
Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.0 -
Her price will come in if she stands as a runner, it's the whole runner thing with her ME that is keeping her out at 7s or so.Tissue_Price said:
I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.Morris_Dancer said:Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):
twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648
That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.0 -
Mr. Price, I agree. I'd probably go for Cooper if I had a vote (and actually wanted Labour to have a decent leader). If I had a vote and wanted them to crash and burn I'd probably go for Hunt.0
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How many 'one of the causes' does that make so far?AndyJS said:Telegraph — low turnout one of the causes of Labour's poor result:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11599365/Lazy-Labour-lost-Ed-Miliband-the-election-says-pollster.html0 -
Not seen treasury questions for the last 5 years malc ? You should raise your horizons above the sterile atmosphere inside Holyrood..malcolmg said:
Squeaky George will be a laughScott_P said:@BethRigby: positioning his chosen successor? PM spokesman confirms Osborne will take PMQs when Cameron away
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Can't say I noticed Mr Gmalcolmg said:
I do agree it is very childish but given some of the stuff I post I cannot really criticise.Tissue_Price said:
Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.malcolmg said:
Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,AndyJS said:
I think Sunil's only joking!Tissue_Price said:
Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...Sunil_Prasannan said:
She looks OK tooAndyJS said:Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?
Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know. 0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-7gpgXNWYIcurrystar said:
As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.JonathanD said:"During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....
One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."TheScreamingEagles said:@wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne
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Mr. Pulpstar, if ME's an issue then maybe there's urgency to get Balls back because she didn't actually plan on standing and would've instead supported her husband a second time.0
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The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters0 -
Are they counting Ed in that?Flightpathl said:
How many 'one of the causes' does that make so far?AndyJS said:Telegraph — low turnout one of the causes of Labour's poor result:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11599365/Lazy-Labour-lost-Ed-Miliband-the-election-says-pollster.html0 -
I want the polices that Ukip have to have the best chance of being heard and the best way for that to happen is for Farage to be the leader. I don't care about the internal squabblings of party politics, he is the best man for the job, I've never heard anyone say 'we'd be better off w xxxxxx in charge' there really is no problem, except other parties supporters would rather he was not leader, and I couldn't really care less what they thinkwatford30 said:
He resigned last week.isam said:
He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last Octoberwatford30 said:
For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.currystar said:
As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.JonathanD said:"During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....
One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."TheScreamingEagles said:@wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_leadership_election_announced
Thought you would have kept a keen watch on facts before posting
Do you not think a vote would be more democratic than Nigel simply telling the NEC that they should beg him to take the job back as the sky would fall in without him?
I have met most of the people being out forward as alternatives, I spent an afternoon canvassing Jaywick w Suzanne Evans, and although they are all nice people, frankly none of them come close to Farage.
I was a teller in Dagenhan last week and dozens of people waxed lyrical about Farage... To show how much notice people take of local candidates, many thought I was peter Harris the PPC.. Like it or not, Farage is Ukips major selling point, and has done a great job
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Oh, the irony. What percentage of those eligible to vote last Thursday voted for the Tories?SouthamObserver said:Plato said:Re strikes reform http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11599020/Tories-to-bring-in-tough-anti-strike-laws.html
The Conservatives will push ahead with plans to ban strikes unless 40 per cent of people vote in favour of industrial action in government's first Queen's Speech, the new business secretary has said.
Sajid Javid said that the Tories will not "hide away from the changes we want to make" as the party prepares to introduce a raft of new anti-strike laws.
Under the reforms, public sector strikes will not be able to go ahead unless they are supported by 40 per cent of workers who are eligible to vote.
The government will also require turnout to reach at least 50 per cent of those entitled to vote for a strike to go ahead, and prioritise proposals to allow employers to hire agency staff.
Under the 102 strike ballots under the Coalition, nearly two thirds failed to attract the support of even half of the workforce. In some cases, strikes have gone ahead with the support of as few as one in 10 workers.
As I said on the previous thread, what the Tories will do if they are not careful is make people more sympathetic to the unions. If this is 1992 all over again, who remembers the reaction to the decision to close down a swathe of mines soon afterwards?
http://articles.latimes.com/1992-10-26/news/mn-777_1_mines-closure
I don't see the connection between voting and disrupting people's lives by strikes on e.g. the tube.
IMHO the public will be hugely in favour of stopping strikes like that where the dispute between employer and employees negatively impacts innocent members of the public.0 -
It's been said that the next Labour leader is going to play the Neil Kinnock role.
Why can't Labour just get the actual Neil Kinnock back to play the Neil Kinnock role again for two more terms?
He'll do a good job of being caretaker as he did before and as we saw on the night he hasn't changed his views - Labour lost because people were just selfish and nasty and wouldn't vote Labour, the bastards.
The time when Labour appoints a slimy lawyer will come but Chuka is 10, 12 years too early.0 -
From Diss Express
"Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP Dr Dan Poulter has stepped down as a health minister.
Dr Poulter, who was returned as a Conservative MP with an increased majority at the General Election on Thursday, told the BBC he wanted to continue his work as a part-time doctor, and had to decide between ministerial work and medicine."0 -
You are making the mistake of thinking that what goes on inside Farage's head is rational. He is betraying more and more the traits of Gordon Brown.rottenborough said:I really don't get the whole Farage/UKIP resignation. Why didn't he just do what he said and spend the summer on holiday and then be "persuaded" back in the autumn? Nothing much will happen now for months apart from an emergency budget in June.
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I wouldn't worry about it too much if I were you. Unless you are a Ukip member or supporter then take it up with the NEC. I don't hear of too many doing soJonathanD said:
Presumably he would have had no difficulty winning a new election this Autumn then? Claiming he has the support of UKIP members but not actually bothering to check isn't the most honest.isam said:
He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last Octoberwatford30 said:
For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.currystar said:
As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.JonathanD said:"During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....
One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."TheScreamingEagles said:@wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne
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I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.
It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.0 -
In Labour’s private polling, before he asked respondents how they would vote, he says, he asked them to think about the country, the economy, the leaders and so onTheScreamingEagles said:The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters
Best poll of the whole GE:
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ITV-News_LibDemsSouthWest_Tables1.pdf
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If there's a controvertial policy dave would do well to tackle during his honeymoon grace, it would be housebuilding. This is his chance to shoot labours 2020 fox.0
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@Bob_Sykes
'Left outraged, ordinary workers (some who voted Tory) might be nonplussed, and it would be a red rag (or a yellow one) to the Scots, to whom it would apply.'
Is there any Tory policy that the Left doesn't get outraged about or indeed the SNP other than giving them more money?
On the other hand there are millions of ordinary voters not to mention commuters that have repeatedly had their travel and work plans trashed on the basis of a minority of hard line union members.
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@MattChorley: EXC Blairite @BenPBradshaw - who trebled his majority - to bid for deputy Labour leader http://t.co/30WLzZq9Y9 http://t.co/QnXHxu08pM0
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I feel I must apologise for the crap polling data making my ELBOW crap, especially during that last week running up to Election Night - even the phone polls were out, despite (or because?) a couple of reasonably accurate polls the week beforeTheScreamingEagles said:The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters
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Boris performed a great service to the tories by getting rid of Livingstone and showing the tories could win - in London of all places. We do not know to what extent Boris was aware of the true nature of the polls as well.antifrank said:I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.
It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.
He can be a great asset. He would need to slip into an appropriate ministerial post however.0 -
Mr. Antifrank, I agree. To get the gig, Boris has to persuade the PCP, which already has leading lights contemplating their own leadership bids, or who have hitched their wagons to the likes of Osborne, May et al.
It also depends when Cameron goes. Some, including me, have suggested after the referendum would be the perfect time. He either goes out on a high, or takes responsibility for losing the vote.0 -
T Hunt at 9s looks lay of the century.
He should be 90/10 -
Those seriously suggesting Farage isn't the best man to lead Ukip, look at football clubs who had long serving managers who got them relative success then decided 'they had taken them as far as the could' or it was 'time for a change'
Redknapp at West Ham and Spurs
Curbs at Charlton
O'Neill at Leicester
Mourinho at Chelsea
Ferguson at United
Allardyce at Bolton
Clough at Forest
Any of those sides do better when they left?
I have to put up with this nonsense enough from idiots who think Arsenal would do better without Wenger0 -
It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.
Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
Kinnock: falling into the sea
Smith: not around long enough
Blair: got away with this one
Brown: the phoney grin;
Miliband: the bacon sandwich.
Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.
Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?0 -
I'm assuming Mr N that you think like me that if Andy Burnham is the answer then Labour is asking the wrong question.Richard_Nabavi said:
If she stands. Even then I think Andy B would beat her in the end, on second and third preferences. He's very popular in the party, for reasons which are invisible to me (but that's probably a positive indicator for betting purposes).Tissue_Price said:I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.
I think the best bet at the moment is probably to lay Chuka, who looks much too short to me, but since I'm already on the other main contenders, I'm doing that by default rather than explicitly.0 -
I might be a winner for all the wrong reasonsantifrank said:I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.
It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/09/why-ive-backed-philip-hammond-as-next-prime-minister-at-331-and-sajid-javid-at-501/0 -
Indeed - particularly with Dave Nellist standing at the GE and presumably standing again for TUSC. I could quite conceive something like Con 30%, Lab 27%, UKIP 25% TUSC (Nellist) 10%logical_song said:
It doesn't look that safe. A Leyton ('65) swing would lose it.Lennon said:
Has anyone confirmed Robinson is standing down or is it all just theoretical 'how to get Balls back?'Pulpstar said:If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leyton_by-election,_19650 -
Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, next Conservative leader will be Patel or Greening.0 -
Agreed. Boris would be a punchy fellow in opposition, but not to come directly as PM.antifrank said:I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.
It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.
Osborne is 'almost' a shoo in.0 -
Not read the comments but thus argument is nonsense. The Salisbury Convention still applies as does the Parliament Act. If anything the election shows why the proposed Lords Reform was ridiculous. We'd have supposedly elected Lords from 15 years ago even when their party has been obliterated claiming democratic legitimacy.0
-
Reluctant to implement Clegg's dogs dinner of a scheme? Do me a favour.
If the other parties block the Tories in the Lords after getting stuffed in the election then it'll look very bad indeed.0 -
We currently have Lords from a lot longer than 15 years ago voting for or against legislation.Philip_Thompson said:Not read the comments but thus argument is nonsense. The Salisbury Convention still applies as does the Parliament Act. If anything the election shows why the proposed Lords Reform was ridiculous. We'd have supposedly elected Lords from 15 years ago even when their party has been obliterated claiming democratic legitimacy.
0 -
I'm on Burnham.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.
It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.
Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
0 -
Blair: looking like a corpse whilst talking about the Iraq war on the telly.Bond_James_Bond said:It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.
Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
Kinnock: falling into the sea
Smith: not around long enough
Blair: got away with this one
Brown: the phoney grin;
Miliband: the bacon sandwich.
Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.
Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?0 -
https://twitter.com/theboyknowles/status/598125450456629248Bond_James_Bond said:It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.
Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
Kinnock: falling into the sea
Smith: not around long enough
Blair: got away with this one
Brown: the phoney grin;
Miliband: the bacon sandwich.
Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.
Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?0 -
Re the analogy between strike votes and general elections...
Everyone can vote in a general election, not everyone (by a mile) who might be affected by a strike has a vote.
There are only 2 options in a strike ballot, but there are 5 or 6 in a typical seat.
The effect on 3rd parties of the result might be profound, and they can do nothing about it.
All of these mean that a yes to strike vote needs to have a high threshold, implying the issue is very important to a very large number of employees involved. It can't be right that only 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of employees being in favour can cause huge disruption0 -
I'm on Burnham, Kendall, against Jarvis, D Miliband and have the field onside at this point....0
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Apologies, off topic. no sane person would have put Lucy Powell in charge of anything and definitely would not have put her on TV. She was effing useless. 5 years of that complete idiot would be curtains for the country. People are wiser than that.0
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I'm far from convinced that George Osborne wants the job. His M.O. seems to be to take executive authority under a non-exec chairman. Richard Nabavi characterised this as an Osborne government and that looks (yet again) like a smart observation to me.Slackbladder said:
Agreed. Boris would be a punchy fellow in opposition, but not to come directly as PM.antifrank said:I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.
It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.
Osborne is 'almost' a shoo in.0 -
Mr. C, not only that, when strikes are called the Conservatives will highlight Labour being on the side of the strikers, and themselves being on the side of the workers.0
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Hence my laughterTGOHF said:
Not seen treasury questions for the last 5 years malc ? You should raise your horizons above the sterile atmosphere inside Holyrood..malcolmg said:
Squeaky George will be a laughScott_P said:@BethRigby: positioning his chosen successor? PM spokesman confirms Osborne will take PMQs when Cameron away
0 -
Burnham: little boy on a swing, with another plump school pupil.Bond_James_Bond said:It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.
Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
Kinnock: falling into the sea
Smith: not around long enough
Blair: got away with this one
Brown: the phoney grin;
Miliband: the bacon sandwich.
Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.
Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00661/news-graphics-2008-_661061a.jpg
0 -
Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140006780 -
Another view is that there were several differences between polls conducted for the media and polls conducted privately for the political parties. One major difference being that the latter are more comprehensive and targeted, making reference to candidate names and constituency choices to give one example.TheScreamingEagles said:The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters
This by a guy called Adrian Pepper, director of researchers SRU:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11599388/Why-the-pollsters-got-it-so-wrong.html0 -
Back to green. Huzzah!
[Not that I don't appreciate the site needs sponsorship, or Sporting Index helping fund the site, but I did accidentally click a few times].0 -
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 2m2 minutes ago
#StayTuned Explosive UKIP Exclusive0 -
Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:TGOHF said:
I'm on Burnham.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.
It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.
Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
"After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?"
There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.
I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.0 -
Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics
The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
Ilford North (1/3)
Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
Ilford North 9/4
Cambridge 9/4
Bermondsey 6/4
Bradford West 5/4
Edinburgh S 5/6
Top 5 most unlikely LD losses, according to the odds:
Twickenham 1/7
Colchester 1/5
Lewes 1/4
Thornbury & Yate 1/4
Yeovil 3/10
Top 5 most unlikely Tory wins, according to the odds
Morley & Outwood 10/1
Plymouth Moor View 10/1
Vale of Clwyd 9/1
Gower 15/2
Thurrock 9/20 -
@GuidoFawkes: Exclusive: Carswell Fighting UKIP HQ Over £650,000 Short Money: http://t.co/zwTFye6voX0
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It was Sunil wot won it.Tissue_Price said:Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics
The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
Ilford North (1/3)
Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
Ilford North 9/4
Cambridge 9/4
Bermondsey 6/4
Bradford West 5/4
Edinburgh S 5/60 -
Absolutely right. If disappointed LibDems such as our OGH think their lot can override the Election Result then they will be sorely disappointed. Convention has it that the Lords cannot vote down something in the manifesto and if they are daft enough to try then the full force of the Parliament Act will hit them for six.CopperSulphate said:Reluctant to implement Clegg's dogs dinner of a scheme? Do me a favour.
If the other parties block the Tories in the Lords after getting stuffed in the election then it'll look very bad indeed.
0 -
FIGHT!dr_spyn said:Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 2m2 minutes ago
#StayTuned Explosive UKIP Exclusive
'massive internal row between Nigel Farage’s allies in UKIP HQ and Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s only MP, over the control of the £650,000 of Short Money due to them as an opposition party after winning 4 million votes.'
http://order-order.com/#_@/StYvCPAt6FEYdA0 -
That's amazingly good for an independent.Tissue_Price said:Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000678
0 -
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.malcolmg said:
Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,AndyJS said:
I think Sunil's only joking!Tissue_Price said:
Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...Sunil_Prasannan said:
She looks OK tooAndyJS said:Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?
Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.0 -
Agreed.Tissue_Price said:
Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.malcolmg said:
Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,AndyJS said:
I think Sunil's only joking!Tissue_Price said:
Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...Sunil_Prasannan said:
She looks OK tooAndyJS said:Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?
Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.0 -
Tsssk! Did they not see my "LibDem-inspired" bar chart I tweeted weeks before the election???Tissue_Price said:Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics
The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
Ilford North (1/3)
Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
Ilford North 9/4
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5880255674270433300 -
I know - that's properly impressive - would love to know how she managed that.Tissue_Price said:Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140006780 -
I'd backed Labour in Ilford, Bermondsey and Edinburgh South and was against them in Cambridge and Bradford West.DecrepitJohnL said:
It was Sunil wot won it.Tissue_Price said:Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics
The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
Ilford North (1/3)
Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
Ilford North 9/4
Cambridge 9/4
Bermondsey 6/4
Bradford West 5/4
Edinburgh S 5/6
I'll consider Bradford West £20 well spent.0 -
Quite shocked how well Chuka did on those. Even Burnham didn't do completely terrible, either.Morris_Dancer said:Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648
That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.0 -
I've just run the last Survation Holyrood 2016 voting intentions through the Scotland Votes calculator - the results:
SNP 71 (+2)
SLAB 25 (-12)
Tories 11 (-4)
LibDem 6 (+1)
Greens 11 (+9)
UKIP 5 (+5)
Total Seats 129 (65 for a majority)
As the Scotland Votes seat calculator currently doesn't take account of regional splits, the above figures area at best a guide of likely trends based on current polling. Links below:
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Final-Record-April-Tables.pdf0 -
The trouble with that is that it assumes you can use social media as insight into the views (or indeed general view) of all Labour members and activists.antifrank said:
Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:TGOHF said:
I'm on Burnham.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.
It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.
Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
"After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?"
There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.
I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.0 -
I accept that is imperfect.The_Apocalypse said:
The trouble with that is that it assumes you can use social media as insight into the views (or indeed general view) of all Labour members and activists.antifrank said:
Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:TGOHF said:
I'm on Burnham.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.
It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.
Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
"After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?"
There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.
I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.
But it is fair to say that on other (non-political) forums that I visit there is also heavy resistance among Labour supporters to the idea that Labour have a big mountain to climb next time.0 -
There was no Green candidate in an area where they beat both Lab and the LDs in the Euro elections. It was the only seat in the SW region where the Greens didn't stand. Looks like they were giving Claire Wright a free run.Lennon said:
I know - that's properly impressive - would love to know how she managed that.Tissue_Price said:Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140006780 -
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · May 8
#Labour weekly % leads in ELBOW, split into Online and Phone polls. Phone polls showed #Tory leads in recent weeks
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5968664629727846410 -
Wyre Forest surprised me with the order of the also-rans. Both UKIP and NHA seriously underperformed, with the Conservatives leading by a country mile over Labour in second place. Is this now going to turn back into a relatively normal constituency?0
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GOTCHA!DecrepitJohnL said:
It was Sunil wot won it.Tissue_Price said:Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics
The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
Ilford North (1/3)
Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
Ilford North 9/4
Cambridge 9/4
Bermondsey 6/4
Bradford West 5/4
Edinburgh S 5/60 -
Timing is crucial when viewed from the other end as well. Boris is tied up as Mayor until May 2016, so even if he is appointed to the Cabinet immediately afterwards, he will have just 12 to 18 months to convince in that role. And that appointment (or not) might depend on whom George Osborne is master strategising as Cameron's heir apparent.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, I agree. To get the gig, Boris has to persuade the PCP, which already has leading lights contemplating their own leadership bids, or who have hitched their wagons to the likes of Osborne, May et al.
It also depends when Cameron goes. Some, including me, have suggested after the referendum would be the perfect time. He either goes out on a high, or takes responsibility for losing the vote.0 -
I'm guessing that the LibDems won't regard voting down a manifesto pledge that has secured a majority in a general election as a travesty of democracy?0
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Is she a former Green?AndyJS said:
There was no Green candidate in an area where they beat both Lab and the LDs in the Euro elections. It was the only seat in the SW region where the Greens didn't stand. Looks like they were giving Claire Wright a free run.Lennon said:
I know - that's properly impressive - would love to know how she managed that.Tissue_Price said:Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140006780 -
I'd accept that there are definitely a bunch of Labour supporters in-denial right now, but I don't think that they necessarily compromise the majority of supporters. In real life, and among Labour supporters I know on social media they concede that there is a lot to be done for 2020. It's why we'll only get a real sense of where Labour is as the leadership contest goes on, and not necessarily from the most mock-worthy comment from the likes of Laurie Penny.antifrank said:
I accept that is imperfect.The_Apocalypse said:
The trouble with that is that it assumes you can use social media as insight into the views (or indeed general view) of all Labour members and activists.antifrank said:
Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:TGOHF said:
I'm on Burnham.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.
It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.
Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
"After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?"
There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.
I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.
But it is fair to say that on other (non-political) forums that I visit there is also heavy resistance among Labour supporters to the idea that Labour have a big mountain to climb next time.0 -
Just 3 of the Labour re-treads were successful: Joan Ryan, Rob Marris, Dawn Butler.AndreaParma_82 said:Harriet with Labour new intake
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEzy5BNWIAESm8k.jpg:large0 -
Green deposits should now be settled. Sadly 21-30% was nowhere near as good as 0-20% :-(0
