A key moment in the last parliament was in July 2012 when CON back-bench rebels voted down a timetable motion on the Lords Reform bill thus making it highly unlikely that it would get through the house. A few days later Cameron pulled the plans completely – a move that led to Mr. Clegg pulling the plug on boundary reform.
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Cannock Chase: maj up from 7 to 10.4%
North Warwickshire: maj up from 0.1 to 6.3%
Erewash: maj up from 5.2 to 7.4%
Cardiff North: maj up from 0.4 to 4.2%
Dudley South: maj up from 10.1 to 11.2%
South Ribble: maj up from 10.8 to 11.4%
Hove: from 3.7% Con maj to 2.4% Lab maj
Apart from Hove, in the remaining seats Conservative performance wasn't negatively affected.
I know part of the first term incumbency effect is not only new MPs developing a personal vote, but also the previous incumbent party losing the structural advantage (no MP office, no paid staff, etc).
Oh gosh do you think he might be trying to lose his slick image?!
What fools they think we are
I think the trouble the HoL might cause is limited. More Lords can be appointed. They can only delay if they try to act funny. Presumably its beneath the dignity of the SNP to put any Lords forward?
Alan Milburn, the Blairite former Labour Health Secretary, is on the Politics Show with some scathing words for his party. He says of the last campaign:
"The ghastly experiment of a core vote strategy didn't even deliver the core vote."
It would force them into a constructive debate about how the Westminster system can be made to work for Scotland.
1. The Lords, by which I mean mainly the Lib Dem and Labour Lords, are most likely to be difficult about metropolitan luvvie issues like Michael Gove's repeal of the Human Rights Act. Having that sort of opposition in that sort of situation is probably a good thing electorally for the Tories in two respects - it helps to shore up the UKIP-vulnerable right flank, and it makes it look like the opposition are focussed on less important things than the economy.
2. How many of the Lords regularly turn up for debates and votes? The balance of power might be better [or worse] if lots of the Lords just aren't there most of the time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salisbury_Convention
It is one of the reasons why Ed Miliband's dance of the seven policies after the manifesto launch was so unwise.
Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
12/05/2015 12:03
He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'
Given that there are constant arguments on whether the appointees are reflecting public opinion, we should just take the arbitrary aspect of it out of it and have a public vote. If the purpose is to represent public opinion over a longer period of time, we can just use the vote averages over three election cycles.
"We will ensure that the House of Lords fulfils its valuable role as a chamber of legislative scrutiny and revision.
While we still see a strong case for introducing an elected element into our second chamber, this is not a priority in the next Parliament. We have already allowed for expulsion of members for poor conduct and will ensure the House of Lords continues to work well by addressing issues such as the size of the chamber and the retirement of peers."
But no! He's back!
He is risen
And the hate returns...
Good old Nige!
bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
...and there was much rejoicing
This presents you with the perfect opportunity to ennoble JohnO.
@RosaPrinceUK hope it's fatal
Salisbury Convention.
Edit: Antifrank beat me to it.
This issue was raised on The Daily Politics today, and it was pointed out that its not that easy to vote down an elected Government's manifesto in the Lords. Not sure that the Libdem Lords would be doing their party any favours if they tried to now stop this Conservative Government KEEPING its manifesto pledges.
Changes:
Lab +4.0%
Con +5.7%
Green +6.0%
LD -18.2%
UKIP +2.9%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001008
IIRC Boundary Reform is ready to go and just needs some enabling legislation or some such.
I thought she'd be at the bottom of the Thames tied to a policy obelisk.
Oh, the irony. What percentage of those eligible to vote last Thursday voted for the Tories?
As I said on the previous thread, what the Tories will do if they are not careful is make people more sympathetic to the unions. If this is 1992 all over again, who remembers the reaction to the decision to close down a swathe of mines soon afterwards?
http://articles.latimes.com/1992-10-26/news/mn-777_1_mines-closure
Multi member STV for the Commons.
And a fully elected Senate on 10 year terms.
There will be a 10 year ban from leaving the Commons and standing for election to the Senate
While he's at it Cameron should move forward with one of Carswell's pet democracy ideas and blame the failure to do it before on the LibDems.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEkFMI2XIAEK46o.jpg:large
He's just acted on my plea yesterday and appointed Dom Raab as PUSS at Justice.
Carswell I would take back. The TPD? Not in a month of Sundays.
Reckless would be allowed back if he'd be happy for the prize for winning a Tory raffle is kicking him in the arse.
Every Tory would enter and we'd have enough funds to fight the next 3 general elections.
Plus, Cameron could just force through HoL reform with the SNP. (highly unlikely to happen)
Leave Commons MPs doing constituency social work under FPTP, but extend their terms to say 7 years (no problem getting them to vote for that) and they should gradually become less partisan and more independent.
Dan Hodges REALLY was privy to Conservative private polling wasn't he ?