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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Cameron might rue the day that his party was reluctant

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Cameron might rue the day that his party was reluctant to embrace the reform of the House of Lords

A key moment in the last parliament was in July 2012 when CON back-bench rebels voted down a timetable motion on the Lords Reform bill thus making it highly unlikely that it would get through the house. A few days later Cameron pulled the plans completely – a move that led to Mr. Clegg pulling the plug on boundary reform.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Where Con MP stood down after 1 term

    Cannock Chase: maj up from 7 to 10.4%
    North Warwickshire: maj up from 0.1 to 6.3%
    Erewash: maj up from 5.2 to 7.4%
    Cardiff North: maj up from 0.4 to 4.2%
    Dudley South: maj up from 10.1 to 11.2%
    South Ribble: maj up from 10.8 to 11.4%

    Hove: from 3.7% Con maj to 2.4% Lab maj

    Apart from Hove, in the remaining seats Conservative performance wasn't negatively affected.

    I know part of the first term incumbency effect is not only new MPs developing a personal vote, but also the previous incumbent party losing the structural advantage (no MP office, no paid staff, etc).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Chuka Umunna launched his leadership bid with a low quality video from his phone... Blurry video and bad sound quality

    Oh gosh do you think he might be trying to lose his slick image?!

    What fools they think we are
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Time to reform the HoL properly then!
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I notice today that the RMT have smashed past the government's proposed 40% threshold for a successful strike ballot.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Time to reform the HoL properly then!

    Abolish it.
    I think the trouble the HoL might cause is limited. More Lords can be appointed. They can only delay if they try to act funny. Presumably its beneath the dignity of the SNP to put any Lords forward?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Telegraph

    Alan Milburn, the Blairite former Labour Health Secretary, is on the Politics Show with some scathing words for his party. He says of the last campaign:

    "The ghastly experiment of a core vote strategy didn't even deliver the core vote."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I notice today that the RMT have smashed past the government's proposed 40% threshold for a successful strike ballot.

    Sack em all and bring in immigrant train drivers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Time to reform the HoL properly then!

    Abolish it.
    I think the trouble the HoL might cause is limited. More Lords can be appointed. They can only delay if they try to act funny. Presumably its beneath the dignity of the SNP to put any Lords forward?
    The SNP takes the same attitude to the Lords that Sinn Fein does to the Commons. It is instant expulsion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    edited May 2015

    Time to reform the HoL properly then!

    With 56 SNP MPs this is the perfect time to do it. If they are serious about working with others of like mind across these islands they can hardly vote against a democratic HoL. It would be a key litmus test of their sincerity.

    It would force them into a constructive debate about how the Westminster system can be made to work for Scotland.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    On topic - as the Cons have a full plate with implementing their manifesto I can't see the HoL being a problem - only a stalling mechanism.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    My first couple of thoughts about the House of Lords situation.

    1. The Lords, by which I mean mainly the Lib Dem and Labour Lords, are most likely to be difficult about metropolitan luvvie issues like Michael Gove's repeal of the Human Rights Act. Having that sort of opposition in that sort of situation is probably a good thing electorally for the Tories in two respects - it helps to shore up the UKIP-vulnerable right flank, and it makes it look like the opposition are focussed on less important things than the economy.

    2. How many of the Lords regularly turn up for debates and votes? The balance of power might be better [or worse] if lots of the Lords just aren't there most of the time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Yay! Lib Dems winning here!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Isam I believe he launched it in marginal Swindon, with the video alongside. However whether he becomes Labour leader and PM will depend on his message and his appeal to floating voters in the suburbs, not the quality of his video on Facebook, as well as who the Tory leader is (Osborne would be far less effective than Cameron, despite his qualities as Chancellor) and the impact of the EU referendum on Tory Out voters and UKIP
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Does that 214 Labour block include Lord Janner ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Dave Can't Win Here Part 94
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'll just leave this here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salisbury_Convention

    It is one of the reasons why Ed Miliband's dance of the seven policies after the manifesto launch was so unwise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    The SNP will demand a quid pro quo for Lords reform, as we have seen in the previous Gov't with boundaries and the Lords, those can get very messy very quickly.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    I cannot imagine that the LDs would engage in the underhanded tactics of seeking to thwart the will of the H/C and ignore the Salisbury Convention. To do so would be to spit in the face of the Liberal and democratic tradition to which they have so proudly given their name. Honourable peers , like Lords Ashdown and Oakshott would never consent to such grubby tactics. :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Time to reform the HoL properly then!

    With 56 SNP MPs this is the perfect time to do it. If they are serious about working with others of like mind across these islands they can hardly vote against a democratic HoL. It would be a key litmus test of their sincerity.

    It would force them into a constructive debate about how the Westminster system can be made to work for Scotland.
    The problem wouldn't be the SNP, but the sizable chunk of Conservative backbenchers who don't want a democratic Lords.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    The Lords clearly needs change. It's current make-up is not based on the quality of expertise, but on a highly arbitrary division between different political parties, based on how many they could appoint without inflicting too much blow back. The Liberal Democrats have almost half as many as the Conservatives, despite only having a tiny share of the vote. UKIP have been deliberately excluded from all sides. The SNP don't feel they can appoint anyone at all. On top of that, there are also a ludicrous number of Lords.

    Given that there are constant arguments on whether the appointees are reflecting public opinion, we should just take the arbitrary aspect of it out of it and have a public vote. If the purpose is to represent public opinion over a longer period of time, we can just use the vote averages over three election cycles.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Plato said:

    Dave Can't Win Here Part 94

    :)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    felix said:

    I cannot imagine that the LDs would engage in the underhanded tactics of seeking to thwart the will of the H/C and ignore the Salisbury Convention. To do so would be to spit in the face of the Liberal and democratic tradition to which they have so proudly given their name. Honourable peers , like Lords Ashdown and Oakshott would never consent to such grubby tactics. :)

    Speaking of Oakshott - I can imagine that the "snapshot" draft of Ashcroft-Oakshott biography of Cameron due out soon has been getting some serious rewrites in the last few days :D

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Pulpstar said:

    The SNP will demand a quid pro quo for Lords reform, as we have seen in the previous Gov't with boundaries and the Lords, those can get very messy very quickly.

    They're already demanding their quid. The quid pro quo from them would be full participation in Westminster in both chambers.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    TGOHF said:

    Does that 214 Labour block include Lord Janner ?

    Sugar?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    For reference, this is what was in the Conservative Manifesto on the House of Lords:

    "We will ensure that the House of Lords fulfils its valuable role as a chamber of legislative scrutiny and revision.

    While we still see a strong case for introducing an elected element into our second chamber, this is not a priority in the next Parliament. We have already allowed for expulsion of members for poor conduct and will ensure the House of Lords continues to work well by addressing issues such as the size of the chamber and the retirement of peers."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    He's going to get roundly humiliated if he goes for it in Coventry NW.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Balls vs Farage would be great for popcorn sales though.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Is Uddin still a peer? And Lord Paul?

    TGOHF said:

    Does that 214 Labour block include Lord Janner ?

    Sugar?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    For reference, this is what was in the Conservative Manifesto on the House of Lords:

    "We will ensure that the House of Lords fulfils its valuable role as a chamber of legislative scrutiny and revision.

    While we still see a strong case for introducing an elected element into our second chamber, this is not a priority in the next Parliament. We have already allowed for expulsion of members for poor conduct and will ensure the House of Lords continues to work well by addressing issues such as the size of the chamber and the retirement of peers."

    "expulsion of members for poor conduct" - Would that get rid of Pants down?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    He's going to get roundly humiliated if he goes for it in Coventry NW.
    Yep - there are quite a few potential Labour by-elections that could easily go blue right now. Farage is just making a fool of himself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    corporeal said:

    Time to reform the HoL properly then!

    With 56 SNP MPs this is the perfect time to do it. If they are serious about working with others of like mind across these islands they can hardly vote against a democratic HoL. It would be a key litmus test of their sincerity.

    It would force them into a constructive debate about how the Westminster system can be made to work for Scotland.
    The problem wouldn't be the SNP, but the sizable chunk of Conservative backbenchers who don't want a democratic Lords.
    Hence why Cameron should pursue it. Something that will clearly cause him pain within his own party and can be presented as a necessary step to put the political institutions on a sustainable footing will put him in a stronger long-term position to negotiate with Nicola Sturgeon, lay the ground for the Scottish Conservatives to become the main opposition in Scotland, and be a defining achievement for his legacy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 6m6 minutes ago
    bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
  • The Conservatives will in fact be perfectly content with the fact the House of Lords is not reformed, for the simple reason that any attempt to block the government's legislative programme will not have a shred of legitimacy. Expect particular wailing and gnashing of teeth in the upper House over reforms to the blessed Human Rights Act 1998. At present, many are acting as if the Conservatives are attempting to change the ten commandments rather than an Act of Parliament which is less than twenty years old. This is, however, the first time the post-House of Lords 1999 Act House will face a Conservative majority government, and it will be interesting to see if their Lordships remember how to behave themselves.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Well quite.

    The Conservatives will in fact be perfectly content with the fact the House of Lords is not reformed, for the simple reason that any attempt to block the government's legislative programme will not have a shred of legitimacy. Expect particular wailing and gnashing of teeth in the upper House over reforms to the blessed Human Rights Act 1998. At present, many are acting as if the Conservatives are attempting to change the ten commandments rather than an Act of Parliament which is less than twenty years old. This is, however, the first time the post-House of Lords 1999 Act House will face a Conservative majority government, and it will be interesting to see if their Lordships remember how to behave themselves.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    You consistently appear to confuse mockery with hatred – the two are really not the same.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 6m6 minutes ago
    bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 6m6 minutes ago
    bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
    Alan Milburn
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Re strikes reform http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11599020/Tories-to-bring-in-tough-anti-strike-laws.html
    The Conservatives will push ahead with plans to ban strikes unless 40 per cent of people vote in favour of industrial action in government's first Queen's Speech, the new business secretary has said.

    Sajid Javid said that the Tories will not "hide away from the changes we want to make" as the party prepares to introduce a raft of new anti-strike laws.

    Under the reforms, public sector strikes will not be able to go ahead unless they are supported by 40 per cent of workers who are eligible to vote.

    The government will also require turnout to reach at least 50 per cent of those entitled to vote for a strike to go ahead, and prioritise proposals to allow employers to hire agency staff.

    Under the 102 strike ballots under the Coalition, nearly two thirds failed to attract the support of even half of the workforce. In some cases, strikes have gone ahead with the support of as few as one in 10 workers.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    You consistently appear to confuse mockery with hatred – the two are really not the same.
    Tee hee you're a one you are #wittybanter
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    You consistently appear to confuse mockery with hatred – the two are really not the same.
    However they do often go hand in hand.
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 132
    edited May 2015
    But I thought that blocking reform/not going along with an awful constitutional abomination meant that boundary changes weren't going to happen, which meant that there couldn't possibly be a Conservative majority. We've certainly heard that enough here! What's the problem? All those Labour and LD lords aren't going to block that nice progressive majority in the HoC are they?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Good to see you back @Gasman and well indeed! :wink:
    Gasman said:

    But I thought that not blocking reform/not going along with an awful constitutional abomination meant that boundary changes weren't going to happen, which meant that there couldn't possibly be a Conservative majority. What's the problem? All those Labour and LD lords aren't going to block that nice progressive majority in the HoC are they?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2015
    On topic: Non-issue. If the Labour and LibDem lords play silly games with the constitutional conventions (which I don't think they will), Cameron can simply shrug his shoulders, and appoint however many Tory peers are necessary to fix the problem. It's not an ideal solution, but it would work. Therefore, it won't be necessary to do it.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    He's going to get roundly humiliated if he goes for it in Coventry NW.
    If Labour are foolish enough to try and parachute in Balls to Cov NW that seat looks like a Tory gain. The Lab majority has fallen at every election since 1997 and was only 4509 this time.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 6m6 minutes ago
    bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 6m6 minutes ago
    bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
    Alan Milburn
    I don't think it reflects particular credit on Nigel that someone like Paul Nuttall is so anonymous (obviously Alan Milburn was being funny, but still). Leader or not, he needs to find a way to make his front bench team more recognised.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RosaPrinceUK: Hearing Ed Miliband's spin doctor Tom Baldwin has fallen on his sword.

    ...and there was much rejoicing
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    On topic: Non-issue. If the Labour and LibDem lords play silly games with the constitutional conventions (which I don't think they will), Cameron can simply shrug his shoulders, and appoint however many Tory peers are necessary to fix the problem. It's not an ideal solution, but it would work. Therefore, it won't be necessary to do it.

    Yer, great idea. Appoint another 300 Tory peers, when the place is already full... Daft, Mr Navabi, quite daft.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @RosaPrinceUK: Hearing Ed Miliband's spin doctor Tom Baldwin has fallen on his sword.

    ...and there was much rejoicing

    Reasonable chance that he'd miss.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @RosaPrinceUK: Hearing Ed Miliband's spin doctor Tom Baldwin has fallen on his sword.

    ...and there was much rejoicing

    Was that heard coming from Lord Ashcroft's office?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Balls v Farage imagine the hilarity if both fought at the same by-election and lost.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Dave if you're reading this.

    This presents you with the perfect opportunity to ennoble JohnO.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    PClipp said:

    On topic: Non-issue. If the Labour and LibDem lords play silly games with the constitutional conventions (which I don't think they will), Cameron can simply shrug his shoulders, and appoint however many Tory peers are necessary to fix the problem. It's not an ideal solution, but it would work. Therefore, it won't be necessary to do it.

    Yer, great idea. Appoint another 300 Tory peers, when the place is already full... Daft, Mr Navabi, quite daft.
    It is daft, but if the alternative is lordly wreckers trying to subvert the results of the democratic election we've just held, then needs must. But, as I said, it won't be necessary to do it, precisely because it can be done.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Dave if you're reading this.

    This presents you with the perfect opportunity to ennoble JohnO.

    .. and a few more!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.

    It's remarkable how betting companies generate publicity from offering spectacularly bad bets.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975

    Dave if you're reading this.

    This presents you with the perfect opportunity to ennoble JohnO.

    .. and a few more!
    Yes, Lord Nabavi of Wealsden has a nice ring to it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    @RosaPrinceUK: Hearing Ed Miliband's spin doctor Tom Baldwin has fallen on his sword.

    ...and there was much rejoicing

    Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott

    @RosaPrinceUK hope it's fatal
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    antifrank said:

    Scott_P said:

    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.

    It's remarkable how betting companies generate publicity from offering spectacularly bad bets.
    He would never rejoin the consveratives, but he might cut himself free from UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited May 2015
    Oh and cough.

    Salisbury Convention.

    Edit: Antifrank beat me to it.
  • Scott_P said:

    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.

    Even if he wanted to, he should be politely told to eff off. He tried to help sink the party.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Scott_P said:

    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.

    It's remarkable how betting companies generate publicity from offering spectacularly bad bets.
    He would never rejoin the consveratives, but he might cut himself free from UKIP.
    That's not the bet.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    "Of course Cameron could try to appoint dozen of new CON peers to bring the numbers into line but as Prof Russell points out the Tory manifesto had a commitment to address the size of the chamber and to have any effect a large number would have to be appointed."

    This issue was raised on The Daily Politics today, and it was pointed out that its not that easy to vote down an elected Government's manifesto in the Lords. Not sure that the Libdem Lords would be doing their party any favours if they tried to now stop this Conservative Government KEEPING its manifesto pledges.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015

    Scott_P said:

    @RosaPrinceUK: Hearing Ed Miliband's spin doctor Tom Baldwin has fallen on his sword.

    ...and there was much rejoicing

    Was that heard coming from Lord Ashcroft's office?
    He did retweet Isabel Oakeshott's reply!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I didn't expect a swing to the Tories in Vauxhall.

    Changes:

    Lab +4.0%
    Con +5.7%
    Green +6.0%
    LD -18.2%
    UKIP +2.9%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001008
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949
    Scott_P said:

    @RosaPrinceUK: Hearing Ed Miliband's spin doctor Tom Baldwin has fallen on his sword.

    ...and there was much rejoicing

    He shows more self-awareness than Lucy Powell then.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Why would the Lords be an issue? Anything that was in the tory manifesto can be pushed through the Lords with the Parliament Act.

    IIRC Boundary Reform is ready to go and just needs some enabling legislation or some such.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Scott_P said:

    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.

    Even if he wanted to, he should be politely told to eff off. He tried to help sink the party.
    Oh I don't know, there will be more rejoicing in CCHQ over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine righteous persons who do not need to repent.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    God, is Lucy Powell still a thing?

    I thought she'd be at the bottom of the Thames tied to a policy obelisk.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Re strikes reform http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11599020/Tories-to-bring-in-tough-anti-strike-laws.html

    The Conservatives will push ahead with plans to ban strikes unless 40 per cent of people vote in favour of industrial action in government's first Queen's Speech, the new business secretary has said.

    Sajid Javid said that the Tories will not "hide away from the changes we want to make" as the party prepares to introduce a raft of new anti-strike laws.

    Under the reforms, public sector strikes will not be able to go ahead unless they are supported by 40 per cent of workers who are eligible to vote.

    The government will also require turnout to reach at least 50 per cent of those entitled to vote for a strike to go ahead, and prioritise proposals to allow employers to hire agency staff.

    Under the 102 strike ballots under the Coalition, nearly two thirds failed to attract the support of even half of the workforce. In some cases, strikes have gone ahead with the support of as few as one in 10 workers.


    Oh, the irony. What percentage of those eligible to vote last Thursday voted for the Tories?

    As I said on the previous thread, what the Tories will do if they are not careful is make people more sympathetic to the unions. If this is 1992 all over again, who remembers the reaction to the decision to close down a swathe of mines soon afterwards?

    http://articles.latimes.com/1992-10-26/news/mn-777_1_mines-closure

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If anyone can locate the policy stone, I'd be quite interested in acquiring a unique election curio.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    fitalass said:

    "Of course Cameron could try to appoint dozen of new CON peers to bring the numbers into line but as Prof Russell points out the Tory manifesto had a commitment to address the size of the chamber and to have any effect a large number would have to be appointed."

    This issue was raised on The Daily Politics today, and it was pointed out that its not that easy to vote down an elected Government's manifesto in the Lords. Not sure that the Libdem Lords would be doing their party any favours if they tried to now stop this Conservative Government KEEPING its manifesto pledges.

    The Lords would do well to play nicely. At the moment election of HoL is presumably off the cards under a Tory government, but if they cause too much trouble...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    We need electoral reform.

    Multi member STV for the Commons.

    And a fully elected Senate on 10 year terms.

    There will be a 10 year ban from leaving the Commons and standing for election to the Senate
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    PClipp said:

    On topic: Non-issue. If the Labour and LibDem lords play silly games with the constitutional conventions (which I don't think they will), Cameron can simply shrug his shoulders, and appoint however many Tory peers are necessary to fix the problem. It's not an ideal solution, but it would work. Therefore, it won't be necessary to do it.

    Yer, great idea. Appoint another 300 Tory peers, when the place is already full... Daft, Mr Navabi, quite daft.
    Amazing how many posters post a reply before reading the original post to the end :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    Time to reform the HoL properly then!

    Abolish it.
    I think the trouble the HoL might cause is limited. More Lords can be appointed. They can only delay if they try to act funny. Presumably its beneath the dignity of the SNP to put any Lords forward?
    SNP have a lack of tos***s to put forward, other parties have unlimited choice.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    God, is Lucy Powell still a thing?

    I thought she'd be at the bottom of the Thames tied to a policy obelisk.

    Hattie confirmed he place in the Shad Cab (sic)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Would Nigel stand up and support Tory reforms of strike laws during a by-election in a Labour held seat? Should go down well with Old Labour voters.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Ha @DPJHodges on Chuka: "come back Ed, all is forgiven” http://t.co/mW7l6TADUs
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    AndyJS said:

    I didn't expect a swing to the Tories in Vauxhall.

    Changes:

    Lab +4.0%
    Con +5.7%
    Green +6.0%
    LD -18.2%
    UKIP +2.9%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001008

    Take a look at Coventry NW - best Conservative result there since 1983.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Scott_P said:

    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.

    Even if he wanted to, he should be politely told to eff off. He tried to help sink the party.
    Oh I don't know, there will be more rejoicing in CCHQ over one sinner who repents than over ninety-nine righteous persons who do not need to repent.
    Yup, they already made an example of Reckless so they can afford to be magnanimous to Carswell.

    While he's at it Cameron should move forward with one of Carswell's pet democracy ideas and blame the failure to do it before on the LibDems.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Ground war in action delivering "Thank You" leaflets in Merthyr

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEkFMI2XIAEK46o.jpg:large
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    O/T - Proof positive that Dave lurks at pb.

    He's just acted on my plea yesterday and appointed Dom Raab as PUSS at Justice.
  • antifrank said:

    If anyone can locate the policy stone, I'd be quite interested in acquiring a unique election curio.

    It should be broken up and sold in bits like pieces of the Berlin Wall were.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949

    Scott_P said:

    @smashmorePH: One betting firm emails me to say @DouglasCarswell is now 2/1 to re-join the Conservative party by the end of the year.

    Even if he wanted to, he should be politely told to eff off. He tried to help sink the party.
    Tactically, robbing UKIP of a voice in the House of Commons - and therefore of any Short Money - might be a wise thing to do. It would make it all the more amusing as Farage stands at each and every by-election trying to get that one seat.

    Carswell I would take back. The TPD? Not in a month of Sundays.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    I'd welcome Carswell back.

    Reckless would be allowed back if he'd be happy for the prize for winning a Tory raffle is kicking him in the arse.

    Every Tory would enter and we'd have enough funds to fight the next 3 general elections.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    LAB and LD peers won't risk causing crisis by blocking (popular) elements of the Tory manifesto. Voters will not be best pleased.

    Plus, Cameron could just force through HoL reform with the SNP. (highly unlikely to happen)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Ground war in action delivering "Thank You" leaflets in Merthyr

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEkFMI2XIAEK46o.jpg:large

    Is that IOS at the front?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    We need electoral reform.

    Multi member STV for the Commons.

    And a fully elected Senate on 10 year terms.

    There will be a 10 year ban from leaving the Commons and standing for election to the Senate

    Will it be called the Imperial Senate?

    :lol:
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2015

    We need electoral reform.

    Multi member STV for the Commons.

    And a fully elected Senate on 10 year terms.

    There will be a 10 year ban from leaving the Commons and standing for election to the Senate

    Due to the Turkey/Christmas problem it might be easier to do it the other way around: Multi-member STV for the Lords, which then has more legitimacy, so you can gradually flip the power balance back around until the Lords do most of the legislating, while the Commons just double-check it for stupids or things that hurt particular constituencies that nobody's noticed.

    Leave Commons MPs doing constituency social work under FPTP, but extend their terms to say 7 years (no problem getting them to vote for that) and they should gradually become less partisan and more independent.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    fitalass said:

    "Of course Cameron could try to appoint dozen of new CON peers to bring the numbers into line but as Prof Russell points out the Tory manifesto had a commitment to address the size of the chamber and to have any effect a large number would have to be appointed."

    This issue was raised on The Daily Politics today, and it was pointed out that its not that easy to vote down an elected Government's manifesto in the Lords. Not sure that the Libdem Lords would be doing their party any favours if they tried to now stop this Conservative Government KEEPING its manifesto pledges.

    The Lords would do well to play nicely. At the moment election of HoL is presumably off the cards under a Tory government, but if they cause too much trouble...

    Can't see the Tories risking an elected House of Lords.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I've just had a thought

    Dan Hodges REALLY was privy to Conservative private polling wasn't he ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought

    Dan Hodges REALLY was privy to Conservative private polling wasn't he ?

    No.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,949


    Reckless would be allowed back if he'd be happy for the prize for winning a Tory raffle is kicking him in the arse.

    Prizes for all?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    I really don't get the whole Farage/UKIP resignation. Why didn't he just do what he said and spend the summer on holiday and then be "persuaded" back in the autumn? Nothing much will happen now for months apart from an emergency budget in June.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Carswell joins the Tories it would give them a seats lead over Labour of exactly 100, 332 vs 232.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 6m6 minutes ago
    bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Haha love it!

    Robin Brant (@robindbrant)
    12/05/2015 12:03
    He's going to go for it again... @Nigel_Farage on 5live: 'I would look forward to a by-election in a Labour seat very much indeed.'

    Yep... UKIP sure aren't a one-man band...
    The lack of hostility to Ukip over the weekend was noticeable... 'Without Farage they will be irrelevant etc'... 'We have taken their king!'

    But no! He's back!

    He is risen

    And the hate returns...

    Good old Nige!
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 6m6 minutes ago
    bbc to alan milburn: are you relieved its (new @ukip leader) not @paulnuttallukip ? milburn to bbc: who?
    Alan Milburn
    Who ;-)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975


    Reckless would be allowed back if he'd be happy for the prize for winning a Tory raffle is kicking him in the arse.

    Prizes for all?

    Yes. It'll be like the twelve labours of Hercules for him.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Re strikes reform http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11599020/Tories-to-bring-in-tough-anti-strike-laws.html

    The Conservatives will push ahead with plans to ban strikes unless 40 per cent of people vote in favour of industrial action in government's first Queen's Speech, the new business secretary has said.

    Sajid Javid said that the Tories will not "hide away from the changes we want to make" as the party prepares to introduce a raft of new anti-strike laws.

    Under the reforms, public sector strikes will not be able to go ahead unless they are supported by 40 per cent of workers who are eligible to vote.

    The government will also require turnout to reach at least 50 per cent of those entitled to vote for a strike to go ahead, and prioritise proposals to allow employers to hire agency staff.

    Under the 102 strike ballots under the Coalition, nearly two thirds failed to attract the support of even half of the workforce. In some cases, strikes have gone ahead with the support of as few as one in 10 workers.
    I've never understood why employees don't vote in strike ballots. I have a lot of criticisms of the FBU, but one thing they are good at is making it easy to vote in ballots. You get a ballot paper sent to your home, with a prepaid return addressed envelope. If you can't be arsed to vote in a situation like that, on a matter that is as important as striking, where you stand to lose a lot of wages, then, frankly, you deserve all you get.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    On topic: Non-issue. If the Labour and LibDem lords play silly games with the constitutional conventions (which I don't think they will), Cameron can simply shrug his shoulders, and appoint however many Tory peers are necessary to fix the problem. It's not an ideal solution, but it would work. Therefore, it won't be necessary to do it.

    You seem to be advocating the complete elimination of any power for the House of Lords. This is exactly the reason why we need the Lords not to be appointed by the Prime Minister.
This discussion has been closed.