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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Cameron might rue the day that his party was reluctant

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648

    That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited May 2015
    currystar said:

    JonathanD said:

    "During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....

    One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."

    @wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne

    As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.
    For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    HYUFD said:

    Isam I believe he launched it in marginal Swindon, with the video alongside. However whether he becomes Labour leader and PM will depend on his message and his appeal to floating voters in the suburbs, not the quality of his video on Facebook, as well as who the Tory leader is (Osborne would be far less effective than Cameron, despite his qualities as Chancellor) and the impact of the EU referendum on Tory Out voters and UKIP

    Swindon North not a marginal any more by any stretch of the imagination (22.6% majority)

    And Swindon S would now only go red on a terrrrible night for the conservatives...(would need 5.9% swing)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Short of introducing a new poll tax, I can't think of much the Tories could do that would blot their copybook at the first opportunity more than introducing legislation to clamp down on strikes.

    Left outraged, ordinary workers (some who voted Tory) might be nonplussed, and it would be a red rag (or a yellow one) to the Scots, to whom it would apply.

    Hm. Interesting choice.

    We heard all the same arguments when mandatory ballots before strikes were brought in in the 1980s. If these latest reforms are introduced I expect that the said arguments/prognostications will prove as valid now as they did then.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    felix said:

    For reference, this is what was in the Conservative Manifesto on the House of Lords:

    "We will ensure that the House of Lords fulfils its valuable role as a chamber of legislative scrutiny and revision.

    While we still see a strong case for introducing an elected element into our second chamber, this is not a priority in the next Parliament. We have already allowed for expulsion of members for poor conduct and will ensure the House of Lords continues to work well by addressing issues such as the size of the chamber and the retirement of peers."

    "expulsion of members for poor conduct" - Would that get rid of Pants down?
    Has Paddy eaten his hat yet?

    :lol:
    Also awaiting confirmation that Paul O'Grady has effed off to Spain, as promised....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Scott_P said:

    @davidjhgardiner: Ruth Davidson on Nicola Sturgeon "If I had a pound for every time she said 'Tories' today I'd be on her wages". #FMQs

    she practicing for her career outside politics then or does she just think she is a comedian.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Pulpstar said:

    If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.

    Has anyone confirmed Robinson is standing down or is it all just theoretical 'how to get Balls back?'
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    watford30 said:

    currystar said:

    JonathanD said:

    "During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....

    One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."

    @wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne

    As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.
    For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.
    He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last October

    http://www.ukip.org/ukip_leadership_election_announced

    Thought you would have kept a keen watch on facts before posting
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    She looks OK too :)
    Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...
    I think Sunil's only joking!
    Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,
    Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.

    But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?

    Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    woody662 said:

    closed account

    Could be a few of those upcoming....
    Yes, I'm a bit worried on that front.
    Might start to get a bit aggravating when everyone on here is banging on about massive value bets available to those w accounts w all firms across the oddschecker page eh?

    Welcome to my world
    I think my other half is soon going to develop a keen interest in political betting.
    Don't use the same postal or IP address...
    Good point. That can be addressed.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    Delighted Chuka is standing.

    Burnham worries me - he's "proper Labour", and a "real person", and would have northerners and working class voters flocking back to Labour.

    Chuka won't. He'll have them flocking to UKIP, or staying with Dave if they're already there.

    Butcher as Labour leader would be a fantastic outcome for Tories. This is the man who wanted the Mid Staffs report suppressed because it criticised the producer interest.

    If it had been left to Butcher, we still wouldn't know about old ladies drinking from flower vases and then starving to death in their own poo. This might harm the reputation of the hospital, see?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015

    Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):

    twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648

    That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.

    I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Pulpstar said:

    In Scotland Labour only lost 328,000 votes and yet it cost them 40 seats....

    Scottish Labour's famed efficiency of the vote became an utter disaster of wasted votes this time round.

    So only 328,000 to regain then.
    Job done.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    She looks OK too :)
    Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...
    I think Sunil's only joking!
    Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,
    Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.

    But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?

    Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.
    I only she said she looked "OK" :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.

    Has anyone confirmed Robinson is standing down or is it all just theoretical 'how to get Balls back?'
    Just rumours and speculation ^^;
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited May 2015
    isam said:

    watford30 said:

    currystar said:

    JonathanD said:

    "During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....

    One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."

    @wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne

    As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.
    For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.
    He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last October

    http://www.ukip.org/ukip_leadership_election_announced

    Thought you would have kept a keen watch on facts before posting
    He resigned last week.

    Do you not think a vote would be more democratic than Nigel simply telling the NEC that they should beg him to take the job back as the sky would fall in without him?

    'All hail the Mighty, Kim Jong-Farage!'
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: positioning his chosen successor? PM spokesman confirms Osborne will take PMQs when Cameron away

    Squeaky George will be a laugh
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I agree with you.

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    She looks OK too :)
    Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...
    I think Sunil's only joking!
    Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,
    Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.

    But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?

    Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @davidjhgardiner: Ruth Davidson on Nicola Sturgeon "If I had a pound for every time she said 'Tories' today I'd be on her wages". #FMQs

    she practicing for her career outside politics then or does she just think she is a comedian.
    Scottish Tories hate folk mentioning the Tories, it reminds the electorate that they're Scottish...err...Tories.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.

    Has anyone confirmed Robinson is standing down or is it all just theoretical 'how to get Balls back?'
    It doesn't look that safe. A Leyton ('65) swing would lose it.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leyton_by-election,_1965
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    isam said:

    watford30 said:

    currystar said:

    JonathanD said:

    "During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....

    One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."

    @wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne

    As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.
    For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.
    He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last October

    Presumably he would have had no difficulty winning a new election this Autumn then? Claiming he has the support of UKIP members but not actually bothering to check isn't the most honest.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015

    I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.

    If she stands. Even then I think Andy B would beat her in the end, on second and third preferences. He's very popular in the party, for reasons which are invisible to me (but that's probably a positive indicator for betting purposes).

    I think the best bet at the moment is probably to lay Chuka, who looks much too short to me, but since I'm already on the other main contenders, I'm doing that by default rather than explicitly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    She looks OK too :)
    Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...
    I think Sunil's only joking!
    Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,
    Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.

    But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?

    Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.
    I do agree it is very childish but given some of the stuff I post I cannot really criticise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):

    twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648

    That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.

    I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.
    Her price will come in if she stands as a runner, it's the whole runner thing with her ME that is keeping her out at 7s or so.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Price, I agree. I'd probably go for Cooper if I had a vote (and actually wanted Labour to have a decent leader). If I had a vote and wanted them to crash and burn I'd probably go for Hunt.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    AndyJS said:
    How many 'one of the causes' does that make so far?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    She looks OK too :)
    Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...
    I think Sunil's only joking!
    Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,
    Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.

    But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?

    Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.
    I do agree it is very childish but given some of the stuff I post I cannot really criticise.
    Can't say I noticed Mr G :lol:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: positioning his chosen successor? PM spokesman confirms Osborne will take PMQs when Cameron away

    Squeaky George will be a laugh
    Not seen treasury questions for the last 5 years malc ? You should raise your horizons above the sterile atmosphere inside Holyrood..
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    currystar said:

    JonathanD said:

    "During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....

    One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."

    @wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne

    As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-7gpgXNWYI
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Pulpstar, if ME's an issue then maybe there's urgency to get Balls back because she didn't actually plan on standing and would've instead supported her husband a second time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    AndyJS said:
    How many 'one of the causes' does that make so far?
    Are they counting Ed in that?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    watford30 said:

    isam said:

    watford30 said:

    currystar said:

    JonathanD said:

    "During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....

    One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."

    @wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne

    As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.
    For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.
    He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last October

    http://www.ukip.org/ukip_leadership_election_announced

    Thought you would have kept a keen watch on facts before posting
    He resigned last week.

    Do you not think a vote would be more democratic than Nigel simply telling the NEC that they should beg him to take the job back as the sky would fall in without him?
    I want the polices that Ukip have to have the best chance of being heard and the best way for that to happen is for Farage to be the leader. I don't care about the internal squabblings of party politics, he is the best man for the job, I've never heard anyone say 'we'd be better off w xxxxxx in charge' there really is no problem, except other parties supporters would rather he was not leader, and I couldn't really care less what they think

    I have met most of the people being out forward as alternatives, I spent an afternoon canvassing Jaywick w Suzanne Evans, and although they are all nice people, frankly none of them come close to Farage.

    I was a teller in Dagenhan last week and dozens of people waxed lyrical about Farage... To show how much notice people take of local candidates, many thought I was peter Harris the PPC.. Like it or not, Farage is Ukips major selling point, and has done a great job


  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    Plato said:

    Re strikes reform http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11599020/Tories-to-bring-in-tough-anti-strike-laws.html

    The Conservatives will push ahead with plans to ban strikes unless 40 per cent of people vote in favour of industrial action in government's first Queen's Speech, the new business secretary has said.

    Sajid Javid said that the Tories will not "hide away from the changes we want to make" as the party prepares to introduce a raft of new anti-strike laws.

    Under the reforms, public sector strikes will not be able to go ahead unless they are supported by 40 per cent of workers who are eligible to vote.

    The government will also require turnout to reach at least 50 per cent of those entitled to vote for a strike to go ahead, and prioritise proposals to allow employers to hire agency staff.

    Under the 102 strike ballots under the Coalition, nearly two thirds failed to attract the support of even half of the workforce. In some cases, strikes have gone ahead with the support of as few as one in 10 workers.
    Oh, the irony. What percentage of those eligible to vote last Thursday voted for the Tories?

    As I said on the previous thread, what the Tories will do if they are not careful is make people more sympathetic to the unions. If this is 1992 all over again, who remembers the reaction to the decision to close down a swathe of mines soon afterwards?

    http://articles.latimes.com/1992-10-26/news/mn-777_1_mines-closure



    I don't see the connection between voting and disrupting people's lives by strikes on e.g. the tube.

    IMHO the public will be hugely in favour of stopping strikes like that where the dispute between employer and employees negatively impacts innocent members of the public.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited May 2015
    It's been said that the next Labour leader is going to play the Neil Kinnock role.

    Why can't Labour just get the actual Neil Kinnock back to play the Neil Kinnock role again for two more terms?

    He'll do a good job of being caretaker as he did before and as we saw on the night he hasn't changed his views - Labour lost because people were just selfish and nasty and wouldn't vote Labour, the bastards.

    The time when Labour appoints a slimy lawyer will come but Chuka is 10, 12 years too early.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    From Diss Express

    "Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MP Dr Dan Poulter has stepped down as a health minister.

    Dr Poulter, who was returned as a Conservative MP with an increased majority at the General Election on Thursday, told the BBC he wanted to continue his work as a part-time doctor, and had to decide between ministerial work and medicine."
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    I really don't get the whole Farage/UKIP resignation. Why didn't he just do what he said and spend the summer on holiday and then be "persuaded" back in the autumn? Nothing much will happen now for months apart from an emergency budget in June.

    You are making the mistake of thinking that what goes on inside Farage's head is rational. He is betraying more and more the traits of Gordon Brown.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JonathanD said:

    isam said:

    watford30 said:

    currystar said:

    JonathanD said:

    "During Monday’s meeting Farage painted a bleak picture of life without him, and sat in the room as the NEC discussed whether he should stay on. ....

    One source even claimed he insisted on sitting through the vote itself so he could see which way NEC members voted."

    @wallaceme: Breitbart reports Farage sat in on the NEC vote on his fate to see how people voted! http://t.co/BiQvWB92ne

    As I have said he thought he was a certainty to win as he thinks he is JFK reborn, thats why he made the promise to resign. He never thought that he would have to do it. As soon as he had resigned he set out trying to stop his own resignation. Its his party and no one elses.
    For someone who is always banging on about an unelected and unaccountable EU, it's quite ironic that Farage is now denying UKIP members the chance to install a democratically elected leader.
    He won the leadership election, voted for by Ukip members, last October

    Presumably he would have had no difficulty winning a new election this Autumn then? Claiming he has the support of UKIP members but not actually bothering to check isn't the most honest.
    I wouldn't worry about it too much if I were you. Unless you are a Ukip member or supporter then take it up with the NEC. I don't hear of too many doing so
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.

    It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters

    In Labour’s private polling, before he asked respondents how they would vote, he says, he asked them to think about the country, the economy, the leaders and so on

    Best poll of the whole GE:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ITV-News_LibDemsSouthWest_Tables1.pdf

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    If there's a controvertial policy dave would do well to tackle during his honeymoon grace, it would be housebuilding. This is his chance to shoot labours 2020 fox.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Bob_Sykes

    'Left outraged, ordinary workers (some who voted Tory) might be nonplussed, and it would be a red rag (or a yellow one) to the Scots, to whom it would apply.'

    Is there any Tory policy that the Left doesn't get outraged about or indeed the SNP other than giving them more money?

    On the other hand there are millions of ordinary voters not to mention commuters that have repeatedly had their travel and work plans trashed on the basis of a minority of hard line union members.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    @MattChorley: EXC Blairite @BenPBradshaw - who trebled his majority - to bid for deputy Labour leader http://t.co/30WLzZq9Y9 http://t.co/QnXHxu08pM
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters

    I feel I must apologise for the crap polling data making my ELBOW crap, especially during that last week running up to Election Night - even the phone polls were out, despite (or because?) a couple of reasonably accurate polls the week before :(
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    antifrank said:

    I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.

    It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.

    Boris performed a great service to the tories by getting rid of Livingstone and showing the tories could win - in London of all places. We do not know to what extent Boris was aware of the true nature of the polls as well.
    He can be a great asset. He would need to slip into an appropriate ministerial post however.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Antifrank, I agree. To get the gig, Boris has to persuade the PCP, which already has leading lights contemplating their own leadership bids, or who have hitched their wagons to the likes of Osborne, May et al.

    It also depends when Cameron goes. Some, including me, have suggested after the referendum would be the perfect time. He either goes out on a high, or takes responsibility for losing the vote.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    T Hunt at 9s looks lay of the century.

    He should be 90/1
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2015
    Those seriously suggesting Farage isn't the best man to lead Ukip, look at football clubs who had long serving managers who got them relative success then decided 'they had taken them as far as the could' or it was 'time for a change'

    Redknapp at West Ham and Spurs
    Curbs at Charlton
    O'Neill at Leicester
    Mourinho at Chelsea
    Ferguson at United
    Allardyce at Bolton
    Clough at Forest

    Any of those sides do better when they left?

    I have to put up with this nonsense enough from idiots who think Arsenal would do better without Wenger
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.

    Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
    Kinnock: falling into the sea
    Smith: not around long enough
    Blair: got away with this one
    Brown: the phoney grin;
    Miliband: the bacon sandwich.

    Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.

    Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    I still think Cooper looks the (uninspired) bet.

    If she stands. Even then I think Andy B would beat her in the end, on second and third preferences. He's very popular in the party, for reasons which are invisible to me (but that's probably a positive indicator for betting purposes).

    I think the best bet at the moment is probably to lay Chuka, who looks much too short to me, but since I'm already on the other main contenders, I'm doing that by default rather than explicitly.
    I'm assuming Mr N that you think like me that if Andy Burnham is the answer then Labour is asking the wrong question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    antifrank said:

    I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.

    It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.

    I might be a winner for all the wrong reasons

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/09/why-ive-backed-philip-hammond-as-next-prime-minister-at-331-and-sajid-javid-at-501/
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If Coventry NW is a Balls vs Farage fight, back the Tories there imo.

    Has anyone confirmed Robinson is standing down or is it all just theoretical 'how to get Balls back?'
    It doesn't look that safe. A Leyton ('65) swing would lose it.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leyton_by-election,_1965
    Indeed - particularly with Dave Nellist standing at the GE and presumably standing again for TUSC. I could quite conceive something like Con 30%, Lab 27%, UKIP 25% TUSC (Nellist) 10%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    edited May 2015
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, next Conservative leader will be Patel or Greening.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    antifrank said:

    I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.

    It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.

    Agreed. Boris would be a punchy fellow in opposition, but not to come directly as PM.

    Osborne is 'almost' a shoo in.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Not read the comments but thus argument is nonsense. The Salisbury Convention still applies as does the Parliament Act. If anything the election shows why the proposed Lords Reform was ridiculous. We'd have supposedly elected Lords from 15 years ago even when their party has been obliterated claiming democratic legitimacy.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Reluctant to implement Clegg's dogs dinner of a scheme? Do me a favour.

    If the other parties block the Tories in the Lords after getting stuffed in the election then it'll look very bad indeed.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    Not read the comments but thus argument is nonsense. The Salisbury Convention still applies as does the Parliament Act. If anything the election shows why the proposed Lords Reform was ridiculous. We'd have supposedly elected Lords from 15 years ago even when their party has been obliterated claiming democratic legitimacy.

    We currently have Lords from a lot longer than 15 years ago voting for or against legislation.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.

    I'm on Burnham.

    It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.

    Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    edited May 2015

    It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.

    Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
    Kinnock: falling into the sea
    Smith: not around long enough
    Blair: got away with this one
    Brown: the phoney grin;
    Miliband: the bacon sandwich.

    Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.

    Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?

    Blair: looking like a corpse whilst talking about the Iraq war on the telly.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.

    Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
    Kinnock: falling into the sea
    Smith: not around long enough
    Blair: got away with this one
    Brown: the phoney grin;
    Miliband: the bacon sandwich.

    Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.

    Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?

    https://twitter.com/theboyknowles/status/598125450456629248
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Re the analogy between strike votes and general elections...

    Everyone can vote in a general election, not everyone (by a mile) who might be affected by a strike has a vote.

    There are only 2 options in a strike ballot, but there are 5 or 6 in a typical seat.

    The effect on 3rd parties of the result might be profound, and they can do nothing about it.

    All of these mean that a yes to strike vote needs to have a high threshold, implying the issue is very important to a very large number of employees involved. It can't be right that only 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of employees being in favour can cause huge disruption
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I'm on Burnham, Kendall, against Jarvis, D Miliband and have the field onside at this point....
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Apologies, off topic. no sane person would have put Lucy Powell in charge of anything and definitely would not have put her on TV. She was effing useless. 5 years of that complete idiot would be curtains for the country. People are wiser than that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    I agree (as so often) with Richard Nabavi. Chuka Umunna looks way too short on Betfair. For that matter in the parallel market, so now does Boris Johnson.

    It's actually quite hard to see a route through for Boris Johnson now. The next Conservative leader is almost certainly going to be immediately installed as Prime Minister at some point before the next election. The party will be focussing on responsibility over bonhomie. Pretty well every conceivable candidate is going to do better than Boris Johnson in that sort of contest.

    Agreed. Boris would be a punchy fellow in opposition, but not to come directly as PM.

    Osborne is 'almost' a shoo in.
    I'm far from convinced that George Osborne wants the job. His M.O. seems to be to take executive authority under a non-exec chairman. Richard Nabavi characterised this as an Osborne government and that looks (yet again) like a smart observation to me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. C, not only that, when strikes are called the Conservatives will highlight Labour being on the side of the strikers, and themselves being on the side of the workers.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: positioning his chosen successor? PM spokesman confirms Osborne will take PMQs when Cameron away

    Squeaky George will be a laugh
    Not seen treasury questions for the last 5 years malc ? You should raise your horizons above the sterile atmosphere inside Holyrood..
    Hence my laughter
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    It occurs to me that every recent Labour leader except Blair has managed to be photographed, and is mainly remembered for, looking like a total arse.

    Foot: donkey jacket at the Cenotaph;
    Kinnock: falling into the sea
    Smith: not around long enough
    Blair: got away with this one
    Brown: the phoney grin;
    Miliband: the bacon sandwich.

    Of the contenders I'd say Cooper has the least chance of looking like a total arse whereas it is nailed on with both Butcher and Umunna.

    Why does Butcher always appear to be wearing eyeliner? Has he had mascara tattooed on?

    Burnham: little boy on a swing, with another plump school pupil.

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00661/news-graphics-2008-_661061a.jpg

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000678
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035

    The 2015 election disaster doesn’t mean we should give up on polling

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/12/2015-election-polling-pollsters

    Another view is that there were several differences between polls conducted for the media and polls conducted privately for the political parties. One major difference being that the latter are more comprehensive and targeted, making reference to candidate names and constituency choices to give one example.

    This by a guy called Adrian Pepper, director of researchers SRU:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11599388/Why-the-pollsters-got-it-so-wrong.html
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 2m2 minutes ago
    #StayTuned Explosive UKIP Exclusive
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Back to green. Huzzah!

    [Not that I don't appreciate the site needs sponsorship, or Sporting Index helping fund the site, but I did accidentally click a few times].
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.

    I'm on Burnham.

    It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.

    Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
    Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:

    "After the uprising of the 17th of June
    The Secretary of the Writers' Union
    Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
    Stating that the people
    Had forfeited the confidence of the government
    And could win it back only
    By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
    In that case for the government
    To dissolve the people
    And elect another?"

    There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.

    I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:

    Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics

    The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
    Ilford North (1/3)

    Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
    Ilford North 9/4
    Cambridge 9/4
    Bermondsey 6/4
    Bradford West 5/4
    Edinburgh S 5/6

    Top 5 most unlikely LD losses, according to the odds:
    Twickenham 1/7
    Colchester 1/5
    Lewes 1/4
    Thornbury & Yate 1/4
    Yeovil 3/10

    Top 5 most unlikely Tory wins, according to the odds
    Morley & Outwood 10/1
    Plymouth Moor View 10/1
    Vale of Clwyd 9/1
    Gower 15/2
    Thurrock 9/2
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Exclusive: Carswell Fighting UKIP HQ Over £650,000 Short Money: http://t.co/zwTFye6voX
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Plato said:

    Dave Can't Win Here Part 94

    How did parts 1 to 93 go? ++ innocent face ++
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:

    Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics

    The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
    Ilford North (1/3)

    Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
    Ilford North 9/4
    Cambridge 9/4
    Bermondsey 6/4
    Bradford West 5/4
    Edinburgh S 5/6

    It was Sunil wot won it.
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109

    Reluctant to implement Clegg's dogs dinner of a scheme? Do me a favour.

    If the other parties block the Tories in the Lords after getting stuffed in the election then it'll look very bad indeed.

    Absolutely right. If disappointed LibDems such as our OGH think their lot can override the Election Result then they will be sorely disappointed. Convention has it that the Lords cannot vote down something in the manifesto and if they are daft enough to try then the full force of the Parliament Act will hit them for six.

  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited May 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 2m2 minutes ago
    #StayTuned Explosive UKIP Exclusive

    FIGHT!

    'massive internal row between Nigel Farage’s allies in UKIP HQ and Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s only MP, over the control of the £650,000 of Short Money due to them as an opposition party after winning 4 million votes.'

    http://order-order.com/#_@/StYvCPAt6FEYdA
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000678

    That's amazingly good for an independent.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    She looks OK too :)
    Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...
    I think Sunil's only joking!
    Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,
    Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.

    But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?

    Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.
    Agreed.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Priti Patel gets the seat with the best view in the cabinet room:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    She looks OK too :)
    Sunil, I don't want to be the guy who picks on you, but it's rather unbecoming of you to post something along these lines every time someone mentions an up-and-coming female MP! Just friendly advice...
    I think Sunil's only joking!
    Even if he isn't it is not crime of the century,
    Of course it isn't. And I'm not precious about occasionally fancying MPs and more generally commenting on their appearance (for MPs of either sex). After all, appearance can be pivotal to electoral success.

    But I just feel that it is a little demeaning to have the same comment made every time about any female MP under 45, and it's potentially offputting for female contributors. We don't see "Phwoar, hope Chuka wins" posted on here, do we?

    Maybe I'm missing the mark here; I don't know.
    Agreed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:

    Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics

    The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
    Ilford North (1/3)

    Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
    Ilford North 9/4

    Tsssk! Did they not see my "LibDem-inspired" bar chart I tweeted weeks before the election???

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/588025567427043330
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000678

    I know - that's properly impressive - would love to know how she managed that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited May 2015

    Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:

    Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics

    The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
    Ilford North (1/3)

    Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
    Ilford North 9/4
    Cambridge 9/4
    Bermondsey 6/4
    Bradford West 5/4
    Edinburgh S 5/6

    It was Sunil wot won it.
    I'd backed Labour in Ilford, Bermondsey and Edinburgh South and was against them in Cambridge and Bradford West.

    I'll consider Bradford West £20 well spent.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Year old, but an interesting table on what people think about potential Labour leaders (and Ed Balls):
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/598076013948571648

    That's a Cooper-Umunna choice, if it's a good indicator. They more or less tie on intelligence and trustworthiness. I'd suggest those are the most important factors.

    Quite shocked how well Chuka did on those. Even Burnham didn't do completely terrible, either.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    I've just run the last Survation Holyrood 2016 voting intentions through the Scotland Votes calculator - the results:

    SNP 71 (+2)
    SLAB 25 (-12)
    Tories 11 (-4)
    LibDem 6 (+1)
    Greens 11 (+9)
    UKIP 5 (+5)

    Total Seats 129 (65 for a majority)

    As the Scotland Votes seat calculator currently doesn't take account of regional splits, the above figures area at best a guide of likely trends based on current polling. Links below:

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Final-Record-April-Tables.pdf
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    antifrank said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.

    I'm on Burnham.

    It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.

    Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
    Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:

    "After the uprising of the 17th of June
    The Secretary of the Writers' Union
    Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
    Stating that the people
    Had forfeited the confidence of the government
    And could win it back only
    By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
    In that case for the government
    To dissolve the people
    And elect another?"

    There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.

    I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.
    The trouble with that is that it assumes you can use social media as insight into the views (or indeed general view) of all Labour members and activists.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.

    I'm on Burnham.

    It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.

    Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
    Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:

    "After the uprising of the 17th of June
    The Secretary of the Writers' Union
    Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
    Stating that the people
    Had forfeited the confidence of the government
    And could win it back only
    By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
    In that case for the government
    To dissolve the people
    And elect another?"

    There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.

    I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.
    The trouble with that is that it assumes you can use social media as insight into the views (or indeed general view) of all Labour members and activists.
    I accept that is imperfect.

    But it is fair to say that on other (non-political) forums that I visit there is also heavy resistance among Labour supporters to the idea that Labour have a big mountain to climb next time.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Lennon said:

    Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000678

    I know - that's properly impressive - would love to know how she managed that.
    There was no Green candidate in an area where they beat both Lab and the LDs in the Euro elections. It was the only seat in the SW region where the Greens didn't stand. Looks like they were giving Claire Wright a free run.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · May 8
    #Labour weekly % leads in ELBOW, split into Online and Phone polls. Phone polls showed #Tory leads in recent weeks

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596866462972784641
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Wyre Forest surprised me with the order of the also-rans. Both UKIP and NHA seriously underperformed, with the Conservatives leading by a country mile over Labour in second place. Is this now going to turn back into a relatively normal constituency?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Shadsy has been tweeting some constituency betting trivia:

    Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics

    The only seat the Tories were odds-on to win in which they failed was:
    Ilford North (1/3)

    Top 5 least likely Labour wins, according to the odds:
    Ilford North 9/4
    Cambridge 9/4
    Bermondsey 6/4
    Bradford West 5/4
    Edinburgh S 5/6

    It was Sunil wot won it.
    GOTCHA!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2015

    Mr. Antifrank, I agree. To get the gig, Boris has to persuade the PCP, which already has leading lights contemplating their own leadership bids, or who have hitched their wagons to the likes of Osborne, May et al.

    It also depends when Cameron goes. Some, including me, have suggested after the referendum would be the perfect time. He either goes out on a high, or takes responsibility for losing the vote.

    Timing is crucial when viewed from the other end as well. Boris is tied up as Mayor until May 2016, so even if he is appointed to the Cabinet immediately afterwards, he will have just 12 to 18 months to convince in that role. And that appointment (or not) might depend on whom George Osborne is master strategising as Cameron's heir apparent.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I'm guessing that the LibDems won't regard voting down a manifesto pledge that has secured a majority in a general election as a travesty of democracy?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    AndyJS said:

    Lennon said:

    Blimey, only just caught up with the Devon East result... Claire Wright got 24%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000678

    I know - that's properly impressive - would love to know how she managed that.
    There was no Green candidate in an area where they beat both Lab and the LDs in the Euro elections. It was the only seat in the SW region where the Greens didn't stand. Looks like they were giving Claire Wright a free run.
    Is she a former Green?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Flashman (deceased), I share your view of Hunt, but perhaps he has party support.

    I'm on Burnham.

    It doesn't appear to me that Labour have really admitted that this defeat is a shocker - they are still blaming the voters. They aren't bored enough of losing yet.

    Burnham will win the rank and file - and he's not posh - he'll be the guy they pick to lose in 2020.
    Twitter and social media has restricted Labour supporters' contact with other views. So there seems to be a general air among Labour supporters of:

    "After the uprising of the 17th of June
    The Secretary of the Writers' Union
    Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
    Stating that the people
    Had forfeited the confidence of the government
    And could win it back only
    By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
    In that case for the government
    To dissolve the people
    And elect another?"

    There is a heavy sprinkling of "one more heave" as well, in defiance of the electoral realities and the size of the swings required even to get to be largest party.

    I'm expecting a new Labour leader who in one way or another looks quite like what existing Labour supporters look like. This seems unlikely to be a success.
    The trouble with that is that it assumes you can use social media as insight into the views (or indeed general view) of all Labour members and activists.
    I accept that is imperfect.

    But it is fair to say that on other (non-political) forums that I visit there is also heavy resistance among Labour supporters to the idea that Labour have a big mountain to climb next time.
    I'd accept that there are definitely a bunch of Labour supporters in-denial right now, but I don't think that they necessarily compromise the majority of supporters. In real life, and among Labour supporters I know on social media they concede that there is a lot to be done for 2020. It's why we'll only get a real sense of where Labour is as the leadership contest goes on, and not necessarily from the most mock-worthy comment from the likes of Laurie Penny.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just 3 of the Labour re-treads were successful: Joan Ryan, Rob Marris, Dawn Butler.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Green deposits should now be settled. Sadly 21-30% was nowhere near as good as 0-20% :-(
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