politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your first guide to GE2020 – some of the seats LAB will hav
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Thurrock and Thanet both going blue or both going purple were good for me. After JDP's success Craig Mckinley was a nice earner.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well he does have a new book out soon.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's the one!TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that Rob "UKIP have four seats in the bag" Ford? That Rob Ford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.OblitusSumMe said:
Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?Richard_Nabavi said:We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.
He swiftly deleted those tweets when the data tables came out.0 -
MarkHopkins said:
It seems like only last week that she'd lost her seat, and Palmer was a shoo-in.TGOHF said:
Thought she'd given up ?Scott_P said:@chrisshipitv: I hear @Anna_Soubry is next to arrive in Downing Street to hear about her new job ... #reshuffle
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'High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.'TheScreamingEagles said:
Well he does have a new book out soon.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's the one!TheScreamingEagles said:
Is that Rob "UKIP have four seats in the bag" Ford? That Rob Ford?Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.OblitusSumMe said:
Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?Richard_Nabavi said:We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.
He swiftly deleted those tweets when the data tables came out.
You know how to live!0 -
Superb work by AndyJS. Many thanks.
It really brings home the scale of Labour's task next time.0 -
You're forgetting the effect of boundary changes. That will make Labour's task a lot harder.Artist said:Roughly a 5% swing for Labour to get most seats? Which would require a result like Lab 35% Con 32%.
Also Labour are now politically in a much worse spot, even than just looking at numbers, since their only supporters in the House with any seats are perceived, south of the border, as left wing high spending, high taxing socialists - and, what's worse, labour cannot really affect their policies.0 -
Well what I did was I published my charts Twitter first, then embed the Tweets by copying and pasting the link (shortcut) you get when right-clicking the time-stamp (eg. "1 hour ago", "7th May", etc.).Patrick said:Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?
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@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster0 -
From your mobile using Twitter?Patrick said:
At work - no twitter access...MarkHopkins said:Patrick said:Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?
Tweet them. Then include a link to the tweet in your post.0 -
My thoughts exactly. And if this unexpected win for the Tories is reminiscent of the shock win of 1992, perhaps people should remember what happened in the following election in 1997.SouthamObserver said:
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.isam said:
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon periodSouthamObserver said:
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
"'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.'"
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The target list in full (swings of up to 10%):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=00 -
The Tories have massive number of landmines coming up. Above and beyond EU, Scotland, massive cuts, at some point Interest Rates have to go up...and Middle England is mortgaged up to the eyeballs based upon free money....unlike ZHC's or foodbanks, Interest Rates are something that everybody is directly affected by.SouthamObserver said:
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.isam said:
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon periodSouthamObserver said:
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
Also, anybody banging on about the left being dead is in la la land, Ed identified several very popular "left" causes, but his solutions were mostly old failed / flawed ones. Nothing has changed overnight in relation to the wider feeling about perceived unfairness...we aren't back to the 80's "Greed is Good" phase.
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Many thanks - great work.AndyJS said:The target list in full (swings of up to 10%):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=00 -
Any news on the fate of Ed Stone?0
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I think we need to get an advanced preview from IOS as to how the Labour ground game is so spectacular that the Tories will lose all of these seats.. Just a few titbits would do, we wouldn't want him to give the game away....0
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https://twitter.com/OldBlackHack/status/597752908210405377/photo/1GIN1138 said:Any news on the fate of Ed Stone?
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Dair will be along in a minute to explain that he "has to "..Scott_P said:@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster0 -
PT If working class Labour voters did not vote UKIP under Miliband they never will. Post an EU referendum with a narrow In result where Cameron campaigns alongside the LD and Labour leaders for In the doors could be as open for Tory eurosceptics to move to UKIP as they were in Scotland for Scottish Labour voters to move to the SNP0
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Would that mean double the public inquiries?Baskerville said:Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway".
Personally, I think they will go for both.0 -
A fairly meaningless thread I'm afraid since the seats in questuion will be differently configured next time following the implementation of the Boundary Commission review and will be fewer in number, i.e. 600 seats compared with 650 at present.
Thankfully there's no chance of these changes being further unfairly delayed, as a result of the LibDems reneging on their undertaking. Small wonder that the Tories went fully onto the attack against them in the recent GE campaign.0 -
There was a time when the decision as to whether the government would campaign for IN or OUT would be one that was taken by the Cabinet collectively, and so it would be natural that members of the Cabinet who disagreed would be expected to resign if they wanted to campaign on that basis.SouthamObserver said:What s the position with members of cabinet and the EU referendum? Will they have to follow a line or are they going to be free to campaign as they wish?
Nowadays the decision is taken by the Prime Minister [and his inner circle], which makes it harder to insist on such discipline. I would be surprised if Cabinet ministers were not allowed to campaign as they wish.
However, it would be quite extraordinary for the Foreign Minister [Hammond] to campaign on the other side to the Prime Minister on an issue central to foreign affairs. Yet my understanding was that Hammond was one of the more Eurosceptic members of the Cabinet.
I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?0 -
There is a very strong argument that that is the case, but it cannot be said with certainty until a court rules on the matter. The Scottish Government evidently did not want to test their position in court last time, but there might be some political gain for the nationalists in the "English" Supreme Court blocking a second referendum.Scott_P said:Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
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Southam,
Let them enjoy it for a while.
It seems many Labour spokesmen knew that Ed was a dud but tried to keep it a secret. They'd have got away with it if it hadn't been for those pesky voters. To be fair to tim, even he had reservations. So it will be difficult for Labour to make such an awful mistake again.
Even if they get someone fairly useless, it will be an improvement. Indeed, things can only get better.
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Stone age mobile with no internet! :-)Plato said:From your mobile using Twitter?
Patrick said:
At work - no twitter access...MarkHopkins said:Patrick said:Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?
Tweet them. Then include a link to the tweet in your post.
Was hoping I could simply cut and paste my awesome chart into the comment box - but life is never so simple.
Anybody got any good ideas?0 -
Yes, but thanks to Blair's changes to the planning rules, such national infrastructure project public consultations can be time limited, I believe, just like Hinckley C.JosiasJessop said:
Would that mean double the public inquiries?Baskerville said:Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway".
Personally, I think they will go for both.
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Some footage of the Conservative efforts in the southwest and southwest London has emerged:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJC5-dcFT4Q0 -
I suspect Cameron will offer the SNP a deal, which they cannot refuse..
FFA, but must rule out a second referendum for x period of time.0 -
There are vanishingly few Tories who are ideologically Europhile, but the vast majority will follow what the Leader recommends, and there is no chance whatsoever of Cameron recommending an "Out" vote. He is engaged in pure Wilsonism at the moment, and looks like he may well get away with it.OblitusSumMe said:I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
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Top trolling...
@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings0 -
"Greg Clark is the new Secretary of State at the Department of Communities and Local Government."
First real change of direction0 -
Pickles out.
Big boost for the Cities agenda as Greg Clark, that rare thing—a genuine Tory localist—become Local Government Secretary. He will now be a key Osborne ally in trying to make the Northern Powerhouse happen and to sign Manchester-style devolution deals with other big cities.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/live-post-election-cabinet-reshuffle/0 -
yes, Hunt's unassuming nature means it's extremely hard to vilify him as the NHS executioner, and he has done a reasonable job to boot.TGOHF said:Hunt stays at health - good.
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Somebody has been reading pb.com - that idea was posted several day ago....on here.SimonStClare said:
https://twitter.com/OldBlackHack/status/597752908210405377/photo/1GIN1138 said:Any news on the fate of Ed Stone?
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LOL!!!!SimonStClare said:
https://twitter.com/OldBlackHack/status/597752908210405377/photo/1GIN1138 said:Any news on the fate of Ed Stone?
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This is an Osborne government, not a Cameron government.0
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It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.0
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I did want to add this earlier, but had a senior moment
. I'm a BOOer, but I'll be happy as long as we actually have a referendum.
Part of living in a democracy is accepting the will of the majority. If the country as a whole wants to stay in the EU, then so be it.0 -
Now that is interesting for us local govt bods. Definitely more emollient than ooncle Eric, and probably more sympathetic. Imaginative choice.Richard_Nabavi said:Pickles out.
Big boost for the Cities agenda as Greg Clark, that rare thing—a genuine Tory localist—become Local Government Secretary. He will now be a key Osborne ally in trying to make the Northern Powerhouse happen and to sign Manchester-style devolution deals with other big cities.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/live-post-election-cabinet-reshuffle/0 -
That's the result of a ruthless core vote strategyAndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
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Fantastic stuff, many thanks!AndyJS said:The target list in full (swings of up to 10%):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=00 -
Email it to @AndyJS to post for you?Patrick said:
Stone age mobile with no internet! :-)Plato said:From your mobile using Twitter?
Patrick said:
At work - no twitter access...MarkHopkins said:Patrick said:Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?
Tweet them. Then include a link to the tweet in your post.
Was hoping I could simply cut and paste my awesome chart into the comment box - but life is never so simple.
Anybody got any good ideas?0 -
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.AndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
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Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.0 -
Eric Pickles out of the Cabinet, becomes anti-corruption tsar.
hmmm.....0 -
Did Nicola really fly all the way to London just so Eck didn't appear at the front of the photoshoot?
Bodes well...0 -
If Juncker gets away with taking control of the UK's asylum policy, he might just have won the Referendum for Out.Life_ina_market_town said:
There are vanishingly few Tories who are ideologically Europhile, but the vast majority will follow what the Leader recommends, and there is no chance whatsoever of Cameron recommending an "Out" vote. He is engaged in pure Wilsonism at the moment, and looks like he may well get away with it.OblitusSumMe said:I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
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Thanks.Baskerville said:
Yes, but thanks to Blair's changes to the planning rules, such national infrastructure project public consultations can be time limited, I believe, just like Hinckley C.JosiasJessop said:
Would that mean double the public inquiries?Baskerville said:Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway".
Personally, I think they will go for both.0 -
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.JohnO said:
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.AndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
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It is that differential swing that some of the Tory triumphalists are missing. In my view, it is proof of the effectiveness of Messina's voter targeting, and by next time, Labour will have caught up on that front (perhaps even, as EiT suggests, hiring Messina himself).AndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
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@sammacrory: "I've decided to make you a Tsar..." - the sentence every reshuffled politician dreads..FrancisUrquhart said:Eric Pickles out of the Cabinet, becomes anti-corruption tsar.
hmmm.....
Sounds like being appointed minister at DoSaC0 -
EVERYONE massively overestimated personal vote pre-election imo (I got caught slightly on Huppert with this). It's pretty damn rare actually, I think Farron has a PV - Carmichael I think it was proved does not. I think Huppert had one too but it wasn't enough.antifrank said:Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.0 -
Makes work for lawyers, who have been complaining about unemployment.JosiasJessop said:
Would that mean double the public inquiries?Baskerville said:Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway".
Personally, I think they will go for both.0 -
Another contender is Watford - we were told Dorothy Thornhill's personal vote would carry it for the LibDems.antifrank said:Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.
She came third, 14,000 votes behind Richard Harrington.
[To be fair, though, I don't think Richard Harrington was expecting that.]0 -
the Nats will be lumbering about for the next 5 years like a drunk Glaswegian looking a punchup.Scott_P said:@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster
Hopefully Cameron will just ignore them or if he can pitch it right royally take the piss out of them0 -
Surely Hancock is now a shooin to replace Danny Alexander. The last prominent Osborne ally.0
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Again, a big overestimation of the power of personal vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
Another contender is Watford - we were told Dorothy Thornhill's personal vote would carry it for the LibDems.antifrank said:Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.
She came third, 14,000 votes behind Richard Harrington.
[To be fair, though, I don't think Richard Harrington was expecting that.]0 -
I believe unanimous agreement would be needed from member states, which makes the suggestion a non-starter.Sean_F said:
If Juncker gets away with taking control of the UK's asylum policy, he might just have won the Referendum for Out.Life_ina_market_town said:
There are vanishingly few Tories who are ideologically Europhile, but the vast majority will follow what the Leader recommends, and there is no chance whatsoever of Cameron recommending an "Out" vote. He is engaged in pure Wilsonism at the moment, and looks like he may well get away with it.OblitusSumMe said:I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
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The story of the election is in part how personal votes for Lib Dems melted away. All those Tory and Labour supporters at heart, hard earned Lib Dem voters, just decided not to.Pulpstar said:
EVERYONE massively overestimated personal vote pre-election imo (I got caught slightly on Huppert with this). It's pretty damn rare actually, I think Farron has a PV - Carmichael I think it was proved does not. I think Huppert had one too but it wasn't enough.antifrank said:Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.0 -
Nope, its been sliced three-wise and turned into the lion's share of a work surface in a Poggenpohl kitchen.SimonStClare said:
https://twitter.com/OldBlackHack/status/597752908210405377/photo/1GIN1138 said:Any news on the fate of Ed Stone?
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AndyJS But if the marginals swung more than UNS this time, no reason they could not swing back more than UNS either, after all the marginals receive far more attention from the campaigns than safe seats0
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Test0
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Indeed. A brief period of hubris right now would not be unreasonable, certainly in light of some of what was said (I wasnt triumphant at predicting a Lab win, as I wanted a Con-Lib coalition, but was certainly very blunt and persistent about it). It won't last, so there's no problem in it really.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes I know you didn't engage in it personally but the triumphalism of IOS and many other lefties here on Wednesday night after ICM etc showed a tie was quite a sight to behold. Changed very quickly afterwards too as you said.SouthamObserver said:
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.isam said:
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon periodSouthamObserver said:
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
Re this 'War on the BBC' stuff people are on about, that's always been my worry - surely the idea is that someone should make the BBC work as it should, even if it proves painful and transformative for the BBC, not someone who is described by people on here as literally hating the BBC and thus having an ideological drive not to make it work in a new way, but destroy it? Apparently he will be of a mind to not consider anything that does not aid that end to see the comments on here, which is at the least closeminded.0 -
What does that even mean?FrancisUrquhart said:Eric Pickles out of the Cabinet, becomes anti-corruption tsar.
hmmm.....0 -
TGOHF said:
Dair will be along in a minute to explain that he "has to "..Scott_P said:@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster
Like he "had to" debate Salmond?TGOHF said:
Dair will be along in a minute to explain that he "has to "..Scott_P said:@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster0 -
What was the biggest shortened that got beat?
Obv I was on Thurrock for Ukip at 16/1... That was a best price 4/6 for a while so I was 54% ahead of the game.. Value don't put food on table though ...
Anyone beat that?0 -
@Scott_P
'@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings'
No Glaswegian salad ?0 -
Acting Mayor of Tower Hamlets.DecrepitJohnL said:
What does that even mean?FrancisUrquhart said:Eric Pickles out of the Cabinet, becomes anti-corruption tsar.
hmmm.....0 -
You can't fatten the pig on market day. If the Tories have been spending a fortune, contacting key voters for two years prior to the Short Campaign, you aren't going to turn that around in a few weeks.antifrank said:
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.JohnO said:
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.AndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
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Daniel That would put Sturgeon in a bind, either she accepts FFA and no referendum and risks upsetting her base, or she rejects it and loses voters who voted No but backed the SNP0
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Arf - there are several schools of thought as to its possible whereabouts – personally I believe it’s in a pink bus heading for Doncaster North…!AllyPally_Rob said:
Nope, its been sliced three-wise and turned into the lion's share of a work surface in a Poggenpohl kitchen.SimonStClare said:
https://twitter.com/OldBlackHack/status/597752908210405377/photo/1GIN1138 said:Any news on the fate of Ed Stone?
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I'm guessing that would be the plan.0
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Personal vote means very little, anywhere.
At the polling booth, it's personal interests, personal concerns, personal beliefs that count.
In my estimation, having stood successfully twice as a councillor and unsuccessfully once as a parliamentary candidate, no MP can count on more than 1000-1500 'personal' votes.0 -
He'll rue the day.Alanbrooke said:
the Nats will be lumbering about for the next 5 years like a drunk Glaswegian looking a punchup.Scott_P said:@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster
Hopefully Cameron will just ignore them or if he can pitch it right royally take the piss out of them0 -
My 33/1 on tied seats narrowed a bit - noteworthy only by virtue of quite how badly it got beat.isam said:What was the biggest shortened that got beat?
Obv I was on Thurrock for Ukip at 16/1... That was a best price 4/6 for a while so I was 54% ahead of the game.. Value don't put food on table though ...
Anyone beat that?
Edit: Lib Dems 8/1 (I think) 11-20 seats I did not expect to lose on the underside...0 -
Lynton & Jim achieved that.AndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
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Broxtoweisam said:What was the biggest shortened that got beat?
Obv I was on Thurrock for Ukip at 16/1... That was a best price 4/6 for a while so I was 54% ahead of the game.. Value don't put food on table though ...
Anyone beat that?
and Bury North both naked at 1-2. Small stakes though:
Hedged:
Glasgow East 1-5, Dunbartonshire East at 1-2
All Labour bets.0 -
I think the immediate question that came to Pickles head...do I get a biscuit budget?Scott_P said:
@sammacrory: "I've decided to make you a Tsar..." - the sentence every reshuffled politician dreads..FrancisUrquhart said:Eric Pickles out of the Cabinet, becomes anti-corruption tsar.
hmmm.....
Sounds like being appointed minister at DoSaC0 -
I can't see value in that lot anywhere. If interest rates go up, the bet gets even worse !Tissue_Price said:Most Seats at Next General Election, per @bet365
Tories 4/11
Labour 9/4
UKIP 16/1
Green 100/1
LD 100/1
Actually - laying UKIP on a credit account at 16s would be good.0 -
And a former BBC big cheese, according to his web site.Richard_Nabavi said:Pickles out.
Big boost for the Cities agenda as Greg Clark, that rare thing—a genuine Tory localist—become Local Government Secretary. He will now be a key Osborne ally in trying to make the Northern Powerhouse happen and to sign Manchester-style devolution deals with other big cities.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/live-post-election-cabinet-reshuffle/0 -
It's sure to include electoral malpractice and security.DecrepitJohnL said:
What does that even mean?FrancisUrquhart said:Eric Pickles out of the Cabinet, becomes anti-corruption tsar.
hmmm.....0 -
It is very difficult to see how our opt out in Protocol 21 to the Treaties can be circumvented on this issue, and there is nothing to suggest Cameron would exercise that opt in, but the Commission have come up with some extraordinarily innovative uses of obscure provisions in the Treaties in the past, and are usually supported by the Court of Justice in so doing. One thing that could be tried would be to threaten to expel us from the Dublin Regulation if we didn't accept the quota system (see article 4a(2) of Protocol 21). That would end our right to return asylum seekers to the EU country in which they first arrived and might just bounce us into agreeing to an amendment of the regulation. The Commission's formal proposals are awaited with interest.Sean_F said:If Juncker gets away with taking control of the UK's asylum policy, he might just have won the Referendum for Out.
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The polls a week before election week were much better for the Tories.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap works for Opinium
https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/597758797071921153
Lord Ashcroft had a 6 point lead on 26th April
Ipsos MORI had a 5 point lead on 29th April
Overall phone polls = 2.7% Con lead during week ending 1st May (only 0.5% during the 7 days leading up to Election Night).0 -
Haha, what Labour need to do is have some kind of Purge. They gather the EdStone and that Pink Van. Park it up in the Sheffield Arena (site of "We're all right!") and burn the whole thing down.SimonStClare said:
Arf - there are several schools of thought as to its possible whereabouts – personally I believe it’s in a pink bus heading for Doncaster North…!AllyPally_Rob said:
Nope, its been sliced three-wise and turned into the lion's share of a work surface in a Poggenpohl kitchen.SimonStClare said:
https://twitter.com/OldBlackHack/status/597752908210405377/photo/1GIN1138 said:Any news on the fate of Ed Stone?
Like a cleansing of all the clusterf*ck ideas from the last 25 years.0 -
I think Eric Pickles has just told his replacement to jog on... ;-)0
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Who would he have been debating Salmond with?CarlottaVance said:TGOHF said:
Dair will be along in a minute to explain that he "has to "..Scott_P said:@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster
Like he "had to" debate Salmond?TGOHF said:
Dair will be along in a minute to explain that he "has to "..Scott_P said:@politicshome: Nicola Sturgeon: Cameron has no right to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum. http://t.co/ygt5E16oKV http://t.co/JnXMVsV6uw
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster 0 -
Why would anyone tie their money up for 5 years in that way?Pulpstar said:
I can't see value in that lot anywhere. If interest rates go up, the bet gets even worse !Tissue_Price said:Most Seats at Next General Election, per @bet365
Tories 4/11
Labour 9/4
UKIP 16/1
Green 100/1
LD 100/1
Actually - laying UKIP on a credit account at 16s would be good.0 -
True, and it's an offence to democracy. We're approachimg the Septic situation where only the rich can fight elections with any prospect of success.Sean_F said:
You can't fatten the pig on market day. If the Tories have been spending a fortune, contacting key voters for two years prior to the Short Campaign, you aren't going to turn that around in a few weeks.antifrank said:
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.JohnO said:
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.AndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
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One things for sure, anything to do with Levinson is now dead in the water.0
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Battersea - hordes of Labour activists poured in last week because it was 'interesting' - Tory maj up over 2000antifrank said:Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.
The Labour ground game was something else.0 -
True, but they were opposed by the most dishonest man whoever entered Parliament. Tory sleaze my arse.LucyJones said:
My thoughts exactly. And if this unexpected win for the Tories is reminiscent of the shock win of 1992, perhaps people should remember what happened in the following election in 1997.SouthamObserver said:
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.isam said:
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon periodSouthamObserver said:
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
"'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.'"
Those votes for Blair were only ever borrowed, and are still being paid back.0 -
Nick Palmer (Sorry Nick !) - "We've got Labour activists helping us out from Sherwood because it's SOWN UP".felix said:
Battersea - hordes of Labour activists poured in last week because it was 'interesting' - Tory maj up over 2000antifrank said:Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.
The Labour ground game was something else.0 -
Oliver Letwin to replace Francis Maude? Looks like the first obvious mistake.0
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The Isle of Wight was, as I suspected, a tar pit.
The Lib Dem candidate who was touted on here last week finished fifth. The independent who had also been touted was sixth.
Was there any other seat where the top three was Con, UKIP, Green?0 -
Businesses are rich..OldKingCole said:
True, and it's an offence to democracy. We're approachimg the Septic situation where only the rich can fight elections with any prospect of success.Sean_F said:
You can't fatten the pig on market day. If the Tories have been spending a fortune, contacting key voters for two years prior to the Short Campaign, you aren't going to turn that around in a few weeks.antifrank said:
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.JohnO said:
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.AndyJS said:It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
Labour pissed them off.
And now you are complaining the rich won't give you money?
Read what Sir Alan Sugar wrote...
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Deep fried mars bars for pud?john_zims said:@Scott_P
'@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings'
No Glaswegian salad ?0 -
Oh god.....what could possibly go wrong. Maude, for all his dodgy expenses, did appear at least to give a few Sir Humphreys a kick up the arse.OblitusSumMe said:Oliver Letwin to replace Francis Maude? Looks like the first obvious mistake.
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I think you'll find that's the healthy vegetarian alternative.felix said:
Deep fried mars bars for pud?john_zims said:@Scott_P
'@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings'
No Glaswegian salad ?0
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