We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?
Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.
Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
Is that Rob "UKIP have four seats in the bag" Ford? That Rob Ford?
That's the one!
Well he does have a new book out soon.
High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.
He swiftly deleted those tweets when the data tables came out.
Thurrock and Thanet both going blue or both going purple were good for me. After JDP's success Craig Mckinley was a nice earner.
We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?
Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.
Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
Is that Rob "UKIP have four seats in the bag" Ford? That Rob Ford?
That's the one!
Well he does have a new book out soon.
High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.
He swiftly deleted those tweets when the data tables came out.
'High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.'
Roughly a 5% swing for Labour to get most seats? Which would require a result like Lab 35% Con 32%.
You're forgetting the effect of boundary changes. That will make Labour's task a lot harder.
Also Labour are now politically in a much worse spot, even than just looking at numbers, since their only supporters in the House with any seats are perceived, south of the border, as left wing high spending, high taxing socialists - and, what's worse, labour cannot really affect their policies.
Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?
Well what I did was I published my charts Twitter first, then embed the Tweets by copying and pasting the link (shortcut) you get when right-clicking the time-stamp (eg. "1 hour ago", "7th May", etc.).
We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.
My thoughts exactly. And if this unexpected win for the Tories is reminiscent of the shock win of 1992, perhaps people should remember what happened in the following election in 1997.
"'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.'"
We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.
The Tories have massive number of landmines coming up. Above and beyond EU, Scotland, massive cuts, at some point Interest Rates have to go up...and Middle England is mortgaged up to the eyeballs based upon free money....unlike ZHC's or foodbanks, Interest Rates are something that everybody is directly affected by.
Also, anybody banging on about the left being dead is in la la land, Ed identified several very popular "left" causes, but his solutions were mostly old failed / flawed ones. Nothing has changed overnight in relation to the wider feeling about perceived unfairness...we aren't back to the 80's "Greed is Good" phase.
I think we need to get an advanced preview from IOS as to how the Labour ground game is so spectacular that the Tories will lose all of these seats.. Just a few titbits would do, we wouldn't want him to give the game away....
PT If working class Labour voters did not vote UKIP under Miliband they never will. Post an EU referendum with a narrow In result where Cameron campaigns alongside the LD and Labour leaders for In the doors could be as open for Tory eurosceptics to move to UKIP as they were in Scotland for Scottish Labour voters to move to the SNP
Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway". Personally, I think they will go for both.
A fairly meaningless thread I'm afraid since the seats in questuion will be differently configured next time following the implementation of the Boundary Commission review and will be fewer in number, i.e. 600 seats compared with 650 at present. Thankfully there's no chance of these changes being further unfairly delayed, as a result of the LibDems reneging on their undertaking. Small wonder that the Tories went fully onto the attack against them in the recent GE campaign.
What s the position with members of cabinet and the EU referendum? Will they have to follow a line or are they going to be free to campaign as they wish?
There was a time when the decision as to whether the government would campaign for IN or OUT would be one that was taken by the Cabinet collectively, and so it would be natural that members of the Cabinet who disagreed would be expected to resign if they wanted to campaign on that basis.
Nowadays the decision is taken by the Prime Minister [and his inner circle], which makes it harder to insist on such discipline. I would be surprised if Cabinet ministers were not allowed to campaign as they wish.
However, it would be quite extraordinary for the Foreign Minister [Hammond] to campaign on the other side to the Prime Minister on an issue central to foreign affairs. Yet my understanding was that Hammond was one of the more Eurosceptic members of the Cabinet.
I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
There is a very strong argument that that is the case, but it cannot be said with certainty until a court rules on the matter. The Scottish Government evidently did not want to test their position in court last time, but there might be some political gain for the nationalists in the "English" Supreme Court blocking a second referendum.
It seems many Labour spokesmen knew that Ed was a dud but tried to keep it a secret. They'd have got away with it if it hadn't been for those pesky voters. To be fair to tim, even he had reservations. So it will be difficult for Labour to make such an awful mistake again.
Even if they get someone fairly useless, it will be an improvement. Indeed, things can only get better.
Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway". Personally, I think they will go for both.
Would that mean double the public inquiries?
Yes, but thanks to Blair's changes to the planning rules, such national infrastructure project public consultations can be time limited, I believe, just like Hinckley C.
I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
There are vanishingly few Tories who are ideologically Europhile, but the vast majority will follow what the Leader recommends, and there is no chance whatsoever of Cameron recommending an "Out" vote. He is engaged in pure Wilsonism at the moment, and looks like he may well get away with it.
Big boost for the Cities agenda as Greg Clark, that rare thing—a genuine Tory localist—become Local Government Secretary. He will now be a key Osborne ally in trying to make the Northern Powerhouse happen and to sign Manchester-style devolution deals with other big cities.
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
Big boost for the Cities agenda as Greg Clark, that rare thing—a genuine Tory localist—become Local Government Secretary. He will now be a key Osborne ally in trying to make the Northern Powerhouse happen and to sign Manchester-style devolution deals with other big cities.
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
That's the result of a ruthless core vote strategy
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.
I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
There are vanishingly few Tories who are ideologically Europhile, but the vast majority will follow what the Leader recommends, and there is no chance whatsoever of Cameron recommending an "Out" vote. He is engaged in pure Wilsonism at the moment, and looks like he may well get away with it.
If Juncker gets away with taking control of the UK's asylum policy, he might just have won the Referendum for Out.
Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway". Personally, I think they will go for both.
Would that mean double the public inquiries?
Yes, but thanks to Blair's changes to the planning rules, such national infrastructure project public consultations can be time limited, I believe, just like Hinckley C.
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
It is that differential swing that some of the Tory triumphalists are missing. In my view, it is proof of the effectiveness of Messina's voter targeting, and by next time, Labour will have caught up on that front (perhaps even, as EiT suggests, hiring Messina himself).
Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.
EVERYONE massively overestimated personal vote pre-election imo (I got caught slightly on Huppert with this). It's pretty damn rare actually, I think Farron has a PV - Carmichael I think it was proved does not. I think Huppert had one too but it wasn't enough.
Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway". Personally, I think they will go for both.
Would that mean double the public inquiries?
Makes work for lawyers, who have been complaining about unemployment.
I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
There are vanishingly few Tories who are ideologically Europhile, but the vast majority will follow what the Leader recommends, and there is no chance whatsoever of Cameron recommending an "Out" vote. He is engaged in pure Wilsonism at the moment, and looks like he may well get away with it.
If Juncker gets away with taking control of the UK's asylum policy, he might just have won the Referendum for Out.
I believe unanimous agreement would be needed from member states, which makes the suggestion a non-starter.
Looking back to last week, what was the most overheated claim made for any particular seat?
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.
EVERYONE massively overestimated personal vote pre-election imo (I got caught slightly on Huppert with this). It's pretty damn rare actually, I think Farron has a PV - Carmichael I think it was proved does not. I think Huppert had one too but it wasn't enough.
The story of the election is in part how personal votes for Lib Dems melted away. All those Tory and Labour supporters at heart, hard earned Lib Dem voters, just decided not to.
AndyJS But if the marginals swung more than UNS this time, no reason they could not swing back more than UNS either, after all the marginals receive far more attention from the campaigns than safe seats
We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.
Yes I know you didn't engage in it personally but the triumphalism of IOS and many other lefties here on Wednesday night after ICM etc showed a tie was quite a sight to behold. Changed very quickly afterwards too as you said.
Indeed. A brief period of hubris right now would not be unreasonable, certainly in light of some of what was said (I wasnt triumphant at predicting a Lab win, as I wanted a Con-Lib coalition, but was certainly very blunt and persistent about it). It won't last, so there's no problem in it really.
Re this 'War on the BBC' stuff people are on about, that's always been my worry - surely the idea is that someone should make the BBC work as it should, even if it proves painful and transformative for the BBC, not someone who is described by people on here as literally hating the BBC and thus having an ideological drive not to make it work in a new way, but destroy it? Apparently he will be of a mind to not consider anything that does not aid that end to see the comments on here, which is at the least closeminded.
Obv I was on Thurrock for Ukip at 16/1... That was a best price 4/6 for a while so I was 54% ahead of the game.. Value don't put food on table though ...
'@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings'
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. If the Tories have been spending a fortune, contacting key voters for two years prior to the Short Campaign, you aren't going to turn that around in a few weeks.
Daniel That would put Sturgeon in a bind, either she accepts FFA and no referendum and risks upsetting her base, or she rejects it and loses voters who voted No but backed the SNP
Personal vote means very little, anywhere. At the polling booth, it's personal interests, personal concerns, personal beliefs that count. In my estimation, having stood successfully twice as a councillor and unsuccessfully once as a parliamentary candidate, no MP can count on more than 1000-1500 'personal' votes.
Obv I was on Thurrock for Ukip at 16/1... That was a best price 4/6 for a while so I was 54% ahead of the game.. Value don't put food on table though ...
Anyone beat that?
My 33/1 on tied seats narrowed a bit - noteworthy only by virtue of quite how badly it got beat.
Edit: Lib Dems 8/1 (I think) 11-20 seats I did not expect to lose on the underside...
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
Obv I was on Thurrock for Ukip at 16/1... That was a best price 4/6 for a while so I was 54% ahead of the game.. Value don't put food on table though ...
Anyone beat that?
Broxtowe and Bury North both naked at 1-2. Small stakes though:
Hedged: Glasgow East 1-5, Dunbartonshire East at 1-2
Big boost for the Cities agenda as Greg Clark, that rare thing—a genuine Tory localist—become Local Government Secretary. He will now be a key Osborne ally in trying to make the Northern Powerhouse happen and to sign Manchester-style devolution deals with other big cities.
If Juncker gets away with taking control of the UK's asylum policy, he might just have won the Referendum for Out.
It is very difficult to see how our opt out in Protocol 21 to the Treaties can be circumvented on this issue, and there is nothing to suggest Cameron would exercise that opt in, but the Commission have come up with some extraordinarily innovative uses of obscure provisions in the Treaties in the past, and are usually supported by the Court of Justice in so doing. One thing that could be tried would be to threaten to expel us from the Dublin Regulation if we didn't accept the quota system (see article 4a(2) of Protocol 21). That would end our right to return asylum seekers to the EU country in which they first arrived and might just bounce us into agreeing to an amendment of the regulation. The Commission's formal proposals are awaited with interest.
Nope, its been sliced three-wise and turned into the lion's share of a work surface in a Poggenpohl kitchen.
Arf - there are several schools of thought as to its possible whereabouts – personally I believe it’s in a pink bus heading for Doncaster North…!
Haha, what Labour need to do is have some kind of Purge. They gather the EdStone and that Pink Van. Park it up in the Sheffield Arena (site of "We're all right!") and burn the whole thing down.
Like a cleansing of all the clusterf*ck ideas from the last 25 years.
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. If the Tories have been spending a fortune, contacting key voters for two years prior to the Short Campaign, you aren't going to turn that around in a few weeks.
True, and it's an offence to democracy. We're approachimg the Septic situation where only the rich can fight elections with any prospect of success.
We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.
It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period
There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.
My thoughts exactly. And if this unexpected win for the Tories is reminiscent of the shock win of 1992, perhaps people should remember what happened in the following election in 1997.
"'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.'"
True, but they were opposed by the most dishonest man whoever entered Parliament. Tory sleaze my arse.
Those votes for Blair were only ever borrowed, and are still being paid back.
It's startling how Miliband has achieved the seemingly impossible feat of securing a small swing to Labour overall but at the same time the swing required in the marginals for Labour to win a majority is now 8.7% instead of 4.7%.
It's the ground game - over a THOUSAND canvassers in one seat alone - wot done it.
If there's one thing we've learned about campaigning in the last week, it's that a levée en masse doesn't work by itself.
You can't fatten the pig on market day. If the Tories have been spending a fortune, contacting key voters for two years prior to the Short Campaign, you aren't going to turn that around in a few weeks.
True, and it's an offence to democracy. We're approachimg the Septic situation where only the rich can fight elections with any prospect of success.
Businesses are rich.. Labour pissed them off.
And now you are complaining the rich won't give you money?
'@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings'
'@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings'
No Glaswegian salad ?
Deep fried mars bars for pud?
I think you'll find that's the healthy vegetarian alternative.
Comments
You know how to live!
It really brings home the scale of Labour's task next time.
Also Labour are now politically in a much worse spot, even than just looking at numbers, since their only supporters in the House with any seats are perceived, south of the border, as left wing high spending, high taxing socialists - and, what's worse, labour cannot really affect their policies.
Oh dear, remedial lessons in democracy for Nicola
Scotland voted to remain part of the UK
Referendums are a Westminster (UK) reserved power.
Cameron is PM, with a majority at Westminster
"'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.'"
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZQUmFIb0xPaURkeGdubVBCRHJkbmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
Also, anybody banging on about the left being dead is in la la land, Ed identified several very popular "left" causes, but his solutions were mostly old failed / flawed ones. Nothing has changed overnight in relation to the wider feeling about perceived unfairness...we aren't back to the 80's "Greed is Good" phase.
Thankfully there's no chance of these changes being further unfairly delayed, as a result of the LibDems reneging on their undertaking. Small wonder that the Tories went fully onto the attack against them in the recent GE campaign.
Nowadays the decision is taken by the Prime Minister [and his inner circle], which makes it harder to insist on such discipline. I would be surprised if Cabinet ministers were not allowed to campaign as they wish.
However, it would be quite extraordinary for the Foreign Minister [Hammond] to campaign on the other side to the Prime Minister on an issue central to foreign affairs. Yet my understanding was that Hammond was one of the more Eurosceptic members of the Cabinet.
I still can't rule out the wild card possibility that Cameron will return from his renegotiation to ruefully tell the public that he is forced to recommend a vote for OUT because the reforms offered are, in his view, insufficient. Are there any Europhile members of Cabinet who would stand opposed to this view?
Let them enjoy it for a while.
It seems many Labour spokesmen knew that Ed was a dud but tried to keep it a secret. They'd have got away with it if it hadn't been for those pesky voters. To be fair to tim, even he had reservations. So it will be difficult for Labour to make such an awful mistake again.
Even if they get someone fairly useless, it will be an improvement. Indeed, things can only get better.
Was hoping I could simply cut and paste my awesome chart into the comment box - but life is never so simple.
Anybody got any good ideas?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJC5-dcFT4Q
FFA, but must rule out a second referendum for x period of time.
@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings
First real change of direction
Big boost for the Cities agenda as Greg Clark, that rare thing—a genuine Tory localist—become Local Government Secretary. He will now be a key Osborne ally in trying to make the Northern Powerhouse happen and to sign Manchester-style devolution deals with other big cities.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/live-post-election-cabinet-reshuffle/
Part of living in a democracy is accepting the will of the majority. If the country as a whole wants to stay in the EU, then so be it.
Maidstone & The Weald must be high on the list. We were told that Helen Grant was "toast". Her majority? 10,709.
hmmm.....
Bodes well...
Sounds like being appointed minister at DoSaC
She came third, 14,000 votes behind Richard Harrington.
[To be fair, though, I don't think Richard Harrington was expecting that.]
Hopefully Cameron will just ignore them or if he can pitch it right royally take the piss out of them
https://twitter.com/AGKD123/status/597758797071921153
Re this 'War on the BBC' stuff people are on about, that's always been my worry - surely the idea is that someone should make the BBC work as it should, even if it proves painful and transformative for the BBC, not someone who is described by people on here as literally hating the BBC and thus having an ideological drive not to make it work in a new way, but destroy it? Apparently he will be of a mind to not consider anything that does not aid that end to see the comments on here, which is at the least closeminded.
Obv I was on Thurrock for Ukip at 16/1... That was a best price 4/6 for a while so I was 54% ahead of the game.. Value don't put food on table though ...
Anyone beat that?
'@samhaqitv: House of Commons offers choice of two 6 course menus. One includes Eton Mess and Stilton. Other has sturgeon fillet and cloutie dumplings'
No Glaswegian salad ?
Tories 4/11
Labour 9/4
UKIP 16/1
Green 100/1
LD 100/1
At the polling booth, it's personal interests, personal concerns, personal beliefs that count.
In my estimation, having stood successfully twice as a councillor and unsuccessfully once as a parliamentary candidate, no MP can count on more than 1000-1500 'personal' votes.
Edit: Lib Dems 8/1 (I think) 11-20 seats I did not expect to lose on the underside...
Hedged:
Glasgow East 1-5, Dunbartonshire East at 1-2
All Labour bets.
Actually - laying UKIP on a credit account at 16s would be good.
Lord Ashcroft had a 6 point lead on 26th April
Ipsos MORI had a 5 point lead on 29th April
Overall phone polls = 2.7% Con lead during week ending 1st May (only 0.5% during the 7 days leading up to Election Night).
Like a cleansing of all the clusterf*ck ideas from the last 25 years.
The Labour ground game was something else.
Those votes for Blair were only ever borrowed, and are still being paid back.
The Lib Dem candidate who was touted on here last week finished fifth. The independent who had also been touted was sixth.
Was there any other seat where the top three was Con, UKIP, Green?
Labour pissed them off.
And now you are complaining the rich won't give you money?
Read what Sir Alan Sugar wrote...