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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your first guide to GE2020 – some of the seats LAB will hav
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your first guide to GE2020 – some of the seats LAB will have to win to get back into the game
Thanks to AndyJS for once again providing with such excellent data so quickly.
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Off Topic,
What are the odds available for Vince Cable to appear on the next series of Strictly? Surely a good shout?!
Haven't given it any thought really... I'd expect us to win a few by elections between now and then
May need to be re-worked. From the Conservative manifesto:
In the next Parliament, we will address the unfairness of the current Parliamentary boundaries, reduce the number of MPs to 600 to cut the cost of politics and make votes of more equal value. We will implement the boundary reforms that Parliament has already approved and make them apply automatically once the Boundary Commission reports in 2018.
Norman Lamb confirms to ITV Anglia that he will stand for the Lib Dem leadership
Phew. I'm on Lamb from a while back
Haven't given it any thought really... I'd expect us to win a few by elections between now and then
Maybe, but you'll have competition now from a non-Miliband Labour party and a non-governing LibDem party. UKIP have had a free ride up to now.
Haven't given it any thought really... I'd expect us to win a few by elections between now and then
Fair enough. I suppose it will be a while until bookies putting up line markets? Not sure what the timescale is for next election markets to open up.
Ed won more seats for Labour than Foot did in 1983 or Kinnock did in 1987!
'@Casino_Royale
'The question is what happens if the Tories drop 45 seats at 2020GE. They'd probably be on around 290-300 under the new boundaries.
A majority in England and a veto on EVEL, but not in the wider UK and no obvious coalition partners.'
But under the new boundaries and seat reduction to 600 they would only need 301 for a majority + the possibility of support from DUP / UUP.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 18h 18 hours ago
Disgusting pro-#Labour bias on the London Underground ( #Tube )
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597469272923885569
People can vote for Ukip now knowing they won't be letting in Miliband or the SNP... Remains to be seen who labour pick as leader, that could win some kippers back, but equally could cement some too
My apologies for this. I'm trying to find simple way of showing Andy's tables.
'I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.'
Yes, by default,the Lib Dems only blocked implementation for the 2015 GE.
Gone for 50 years.
Note that well people confident on a 1,000 year Tory reich
***RESULTS RESULTS RESULTS***
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6mb2iroir0odk1h/2015results.csv?dl=0
It's a CSV file of all the results from the this general election
A bigger swing to take back Glasgow Central than to defeat IDS in Chingford & Woodford Green?
That list is so funny, in so many ways.
Its not a serious party of government. And Tory voters by and large are so not due to any romance to the Tory party but because they act and vote seriously. That is why UKIP won't defeat the Conservatives - but could under a new Red Kipper leader deal an immense amount of damage to the Northern heartlands of Labour.
I think if the polls showing neck and neck had been accurate or if the polls had been showing the actual result we would have won a few seats. It was a perfect storm for non kippers
The Prime Minister also congratulated the newly elected Victoria Borwick with a bear hug as she went in, and told the huddle of hacks that one of the stand-out moments for him was seeing Kelly Tolhurst beat Mark Reckless in Rochester.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/a-chipper-cameron-begins-to-woo-the-1922-committee/
Hey, I was with you all the time! Didn't we do great on Thursday night?!
How many of the 50 would be blue seats anyway ? 15 ?
Add in natural wastage and there might not be many disgruntled.
You need to do some penance before you can become a PB Tory again.
Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
I'm an extremely shy Tory.
In fact I'm so painfully shy, I found myself physically incapable of marking an 'X' in the Con box on my ballot paper.
http://www.ancient-origins.net/news-history-archaeology/archaeologists-india-discovery-ancient-hero-stones-retell-epic-battles-020329
That said I've been a member of the Tory party for 18 years and I'm still shy in so many ways.
I noticed shrinking majorities in the Stoke seats for example. Tristram might be vulnerable, especially if the Tories could find a worker or BME candidate.
Personally, I think they will go for both.
High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.
He swiftly deleted those tweets when the data tables came out.
Tweet them. Then include a link to the tweet in your post.
'Look in the book' as they say in cricket
Tory backbenchers can now defeat the govt in a way that wasn't possible when the coalition was in charge. Many Cameroons preferred the coalition because of this.
Also, a vote for Ukip in the future will not mean Miliband or Sturgeon in charge. If Miliband was PM many con-ukip waverers would be blaming themselves for voting Ukip. I don't think ex lab that voted Ukip are blaming themselves for the Cameron majority, I am certainly not