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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your first guide to GE2020 – some of the seats LAB will hav

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  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chameleon said:

    Peak Guardian

    Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett: Why it’s OK to cry about this election

    Emotion is derided as a weakness of the left, but many of us have loved ones likely to suffer under the Tories – or simply feel empathy for those who will

    http://bit.ly/1J5rGL7

    That's ridiculous. 'Waves of despair, punctuated by panic, anxiety, paranoia, and fear. A profound weltschmerz and a curious lack of appetite, not to mention a high-pitched monotone in my left ear that sadly, this time, cannot be put down to our decrepit fridge. I keep remembering and then forgetting; a welcome pleasant thought will be interrupted by the terrifying reminder of what they are going to do to the Human Rights Act. As my father said, “It’s all too awful.”'
    'Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett' must be another of SeanT's pseudonyms, surely? I mean, weltschmerz?
    Oh come on, it's a spoof! It's like the racism, sexism and homophobia of Thomas the Tank Engine; the cuts to funding for ethnic minority poets; and "Somewhere today. The First Woman to be Raped in Space has been Born."
    The last one was seriously a thing??
    It was an article about how to ensure there was no racism and sexism on Mars.
    The guardian never ceases to amuse and amaze...
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    come back Carswell, you're too good for these guys.

    shark jumped
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Daniel said:

    TGOHF said:

    Daniel said:

    Farage's cult of personality is going to destroy UKIP.

    Carswell's interview on DP is a bit awkward now.

    We could be about to see the quickest defection
    Tory majority increases by 1 incoming.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chameleon said:

    Peak Guardian

    Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett: Why it’s OK to cry about this election

    Emotion is derided as a weakness of the left, but many of us have loved ones likely to suffer under the Tories – or simply feel empathy for those who will

    http://bit.ly/1J5rGL7

    That's ridiculous. 'Waves of despair, punctuated by panic, anxiety, paranoia, and fear. A profound weltschmerz and a curious lack of appetite, not to mention a high-pitched monotone in my left ear that sadly, this time, cannot be put down to our decrepit fridge. I keep remembering and then forgetting; a welcome pleasant thought will be interrupted by the terrifying reminder of what they are going to do to the Human Rights Act. As my father said, “It’s all too awful.”'
    'Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett' must be another of SeanT's pseudonyms, surely? I mean, weltschmerz?
    Oh come on, it's a spoof! It's like the racism, sexism and homophobia of Thomas the Tank Engine; the cuts to funding for ethnic minority poets; and "Somewhere today. The First Woman to be Raped in Space has been Born."
    The last one was seriously a thing??
    Yes. The thing is: I'm not sure it is a spoof.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    I can see some of those Scottish seats being lost to Labour for good - E Renfrewshire, D&G, etc should be Conservative seats if Ruth D can continue her good work/

    They should go balls out for Edinburgh South too.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Maybe Farage has just re-generated, and he'll be back looking like Tom Baker.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I very much doubt that Douglas Carswell will do a reverse ferret. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if during this parliament he ends up as an independent and then stands down at the next GE.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Peak Guardian

    Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett: Why it’s OK to cry about this election

    Emotion is derided as a weakness of the left, but many of us have loved ones likely to suffer under the Tories – or simply feel empathy for those who will

    http://bit.ly/1J5rGL7

    Oh Lord, give me strength.
    I think I might start trolling Comment is Free again.

    The Tory majority government is giving me the horn.

    Billions of welfare cuts to fund tax for millionaires, as we force single mums to go on the game to make ends meet.
    The wailing and howling reaction of the Left to this election victory has been simply hilarious. There really are thousands of them out there who believe their own propaganda.

    Whenever I want a laugh I grab a bag of popcorn and read Comment Is Free.
    That is possibly the best thing to come form the election. Not the majority government, but the vast amount of whining reds.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    I very much doubt that Douglas Carswell will do a reverse ferret. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if during this parliament he ends up as an independent and then stands down at the next GE.

    If that happens it's 1 gain for the tories in 2020
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I wondered why there was so little gloating over Ukip not getting any seats... People were glad to be rid of our most potent weapon... But he's back baby!!

    Resignation rejected by the way, he didn't 'unresign'

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    I can see some of those Scottish seats being lost to Labour for good - E Renfrewshire, D&G, etc should be Conservative seats if Ruth D can continue her good work/

    They should go balls out for Edinburgh South too.
    What price a Tory sweep in Edinburgh next time?

    Edit - OK, not East.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Peak Guardian

    Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett: Why it’s OK to cry about this election

    Emotion is derided as a weakness of the left, but many of us have loved ones likely to suffer under the Tories – or simply feel empathy for those who will

    http://bit.ly/1J5rGL7

    Oh Lord, give me strength.
    I think I might start trolling Comment is Free again.

    The Tory majority government is giving me the horn.

    Billions of welfare cuts to fund tax for millionaires, as we force single mums to go on the game to make ends meet.
    Come on let's privatise the BBC.

    To paraphrase I could sense a great disturbance in the force. As if a million voices on Comment is Free scream out in terror ...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I very much doubt that Douglas Carswell will do a reverse ferret. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if during this parliament he ends up as an independent and then stands down at the next GE.

    I also wouldnt be suprised if he stood as an indy in 2020 .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978

    Maybe Farage has just re-generated, and he'll be back looking like Tom Baker.

    He's more Colin Baker, than Tom Baker
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243

    Un-smoke me a Kipper?
    Well he's back for breakfast. Broken promises do not come much bigger.
    Savage attack on him in Sunday Times from Camilla Long - maybe they have a deal to keep them both in business. (please do not report me to the police for that)
    Prophetically in the co-op today I saw kippers reduced from £1.29 to just £1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chameleon said:

    Peak Guardian

    Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett: Why it’s OK to cry about this election

    Emotion is derided as a weakness of the left, but many of us have loved ones likely to suffer under the Tories – or simply feel empathy for those who will

    http://bit.ly/1J5rGL7

    That's ridiculous. 'Waves of despair, punctuated by panic, anxiety, paranoia, and fear. A profound weltschmerz and a curious lack of appetite, not to mention a high-pitched monotone in my left ear that sadly, this time, cannot be put down to our decrepit fridge. I keep remembering and then forgetting; a welcome pleasant thought will be interrupted by the terrifying reminder of what they are going to do to the Human Rights Act. As my father said, “It’s all too awful.”'
    'Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett' must be another of SeanT's pseudonyms, surely? I mean, weltschmerz?
    Oh come on, it's a spoof! It's like the racism, sexism and homophobia of Thomas the Tank Engine; the cuts to funding for ethnic minority poets; and "Somewhere today. The First Woman to be Raped in Space has been Born."
    The last one was seriously a thing??
    It was an article about how to ensure there was no racism and sexism on Mars.
    The guardian never ceases to amuse and amaze...
    I did a pastiche about Boris' election to the London Mayoralty, in 2008, which I posted in the comments section to Comment is Free. It read something like:-

    "Yesterday a fascist was elected as Mayor of Rome. Today, a fascist was elected as Mayor of London. This is a dreadful day for anyone who is poor; anyone who is black; anyone who is disabled; anyone who is gay. Are the people who voted for this man evil, or are they simply stupid?"

    Sean T reckoned I got the tone of posturing anger exactly right, but not the lip-quivering anguish.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    Tom Bradby series of tweets :o

    One point about D Cameron is he is slow to take offence, but reluctant to forgive once it is taken. His anger at the BBC was over debates.

    He was genuinely furious at the threat to empty chair him and the way he felt he was being pushed into a corner.

    As one source close to him put it; 'he was the last bar to action against the BBC and now his reluctance has evaporated.'

    Not sure what it really means, mind. Easy to say, hard to change anything substantial.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Peak Guardian

    Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett: Why it’s OK to cry about this election

    Emotion is derided as a weakness of the left, but many of us have loved ones likely to suffer under the Tories – or simply feel empathy for those who will

    http://bit.ly/1J5rGL7

    Oh Lord, give me strength.
    I think I might start trolling Comment is Free again.

    The Tory majority government is giving me the horn.

    Billions of welfare cuts to fund tax for millionaires, as we force single mums to go on the game to make ends meet.
    Come on let's privatise the BBC.

    To paraphrase I could sense a great disturbance in the force. As if a million voices on Comment is Free scream out in terror ...
    Privatise the BBC and it will be Rupert Murdoch's screams you hear. He wants the BBC neutered, not actually competing for subscriptions.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Peak Guardian

    Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett: Why it’s OK to cry about this election

    Emotion is derided as a weakness of the left, but many of us have loved ones likely to suffer under the Tories – or simply feel empathy for those who will

    http://bit.ly/1J5rGL7

    Oh Lord, give me strength.
    I think I might start trolling Comment is Free again.

    The Tory majority government is giving me the horn.

    Billions of welfare cuts to fund tax for millionaires, as we force single mums to go on the game to make ends meet.
    The wailing and howling reaction of the Left to this election victory has been simply hilarious. There really are thousands of them out there who believe their own propaganda.

    Whenever I want a laugh I grab a bag of popcorn and read Comment Is Free.

    The problem is that they thought they would WIN. That's what makes it so difficult for them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    New Thread
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Looks like Nigel is staying. :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,175
    The Guardian article is a keeper - it cannot be a real person , can it???????
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    isam said:

    I wondered why there was so little gloating over Ukip not getting any seats... People were glad to be rid of our most potent weapon... But he's back baby!!

    Resignation rejected by the way, he didn't 'unresign'

    Interesting to note Kippers saved their deposits in every single one of the "Essex in London" seats, even lefty East Ham and Walthamstow.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    These are the proposed new 600 boundaries.

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2012/oct/17/proposed-constituency-boundary-changes-mapped-compare-old-against-new

    Had a quick look in anticipation of "city" seats growing to encompass more rural areas and being better for tories presumably. Not that many stick out, although Stoke looks much more favourable. Needs hours spent on it probably!

    Surprising number of constituencies untouched. Yorkshire and around Manchester completely carved up (beyond easy analysis?), as is much of London. Most rural tory safe seats just get safer.

    Would these not have to be adjusted with latest electoral roll data?
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    Pulpstar said:

    Most Seats at Next General Election, per @bet365

    Tories 4/11
    Labour 9/4
    UKIP 16/1
    Green 100/1
    LD 100/1

    I can't see value in that lot anywhere. If interest rates go up, the bet gets even worse !

    Actually - laying UKIP on a credit account at 16s would be good.
    Where do any bets stand on Farage resigning as leader or as next leader after he resigns?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited May 2015

    isam said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.

    It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period

    There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.

    Like last week when certain Labour supporters were "giving it large".

    Not to mention a certain ramping ex mp .... tick tock
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015

    Most Seats at Next General Election, per @bet365

    Tories 4/11
    Labour 9/4
    UKIP 16/1
    Green 100/1
    LD 100/1

    I don't understand why bookies don't go 95% book on markets like this. Gotta be cheaper than raising money on the markets. Plus, they get the chance that some customers won't be around to collect winnings....
This discussion has been closed.