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edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your first guide to GE2020 – some of the seats LAB will have to win to get back into the game

Thanks to AndyJS for once again providing with such excellent data so quickly.

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  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Brilliant data, roll on 2020!
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    I get a message that says: 'This content cannot be displayed in a frame' and invites me to open in another window - which is then a google spreadsheet requiring a password. Any ideas anyone?
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Can't view this data?

    Off Topic,

    What are the odds available for Vince Cable to appear on the next series of Strictly? Surely a good shout?!
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    https://twitter.com/zacgoldsmith/status/597730423372914688
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I've now made this file shareable so people show now be able to see it
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Rumour that @edballsmp could be parachuted in to Coventry not going down well with local Labour councillors: http://t.co/5ew20kcGpb
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    I think you're right, so no bet there.

    What "line" would you currently put on how many seats you expect UKIP to have after the next election?

    Haven't given it any thought really... I'd expect us to win a few by elections between now and then
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MikeSmithson said:

    I've now made this file shareable so people show now be able to see it

    It's gone blank now.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    FPT, but more relevant to this thread:

    May need to be re-worked. From the Conservative manifesto:

    In the next Parliament, we will address the unfairness of the current Parliamentary boundaries, reduce the number of MPs to 600 to cut the cost of politics and make votes of more equal value. We will implement the boundary reforms that Parliament has already approved and make them apply automatically once the Boundary Commission reports in 2018.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    samana haq @samhaqitv

    Norman Lamb confirms to ITV Anglia that he will stand for the Lib Dem leadership

    Phew. I'm on Lamb from a while back
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    isam said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    I think you're right, so no bet there.

    What "line" would you currently put on how many seats you expect UKIP to have after the next election?

    Haven't given it any thought really... I'd expect us to win a few by elections between now and then

    Maybe, but you'll have competition now from a non-Miliband Labour party and a non-governing LibDem party. UKIP have had a free ride up to now.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Take a look at @JohnRentoul's Tweet: https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/597405282248105984?s=09
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT, but more relevant to this thread:

    May need to be re-worked. From the Conservative manifesto:

    In the next Parliament, we will address the unfairness of the current Parliamentary boundaries, reduce the number of MPs to 600 to cut the cost of politics and make votes of more equal value. We will implement the boundary reforms that Parliament has already approved and make them apply automatically once the Boundary Commission reports in 2018.

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    I think you're right, so no bet there.

    What "line" would you currently put on how many seats you expect UKIP to have after the next election?

    Haven't given it any thought really... I'd expect us to win a few by elections between now and then

    Fair enough. I suppose it will be a while until bookies putting up line markets? Not sure what the timescale is for next election markets to open up.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Still not able to see the file - asks me to request access - then nothing happens...
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Apparently going out into the world and making oodles of money is not too appealing to Mr Balls...I wonder how many highly paid job offers...as an Economist... he has had since Friday..
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Plato said:

    Take a look at @JohnRentoul's Tweet: https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/597405282248105984?s=09

    Why do we still think Ed is Crap?

    Ed won more seats for Labour than Foot did in 1983 or Kinnock did in 1987!

    :lol::lol:
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015
    Freggles said:

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?

    I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implemented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    File still not visible
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Rumour that @edballsmp could be parachuted in to Coventry not going down well with local Labour councillors: http://t.co/5ew20kcGpb

    If he did stand, he could easily lose it. CNW is not ultra-safe for Labour.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Freggles said:

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?

    I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.
    As long as they don't lump in Ilford town centre with any part of Newham :)
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    FPT

    '@Casino_Royale

    'The question is what happens if the Tories drop 45 seats at 2020GE. They'd probably be on around 290-300 under the new boundaries.

    A majority in England and a veto on EVEL, but not in the wider UK and no obvious coalition partners.'


    But under the new boundaries and seat reduction to 600 they would only need 301 for a majority + the possibility of support from DUP / UUP.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076

    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 18h 18 hours ago
    Disgusting pro-#Labour bias on the London Underground ( #Tube )

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597469272923885569

    :lol:
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Plato said:

    Take a look at @JohnRentoul's Tweet: https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/597405282248105984?s=09

    Why do we still think Ed is Crap?

    Ed won more seats for Labour than Foot did in 1983 or Kinnock did in 1987!

    :lol::lol:
    How is the socialist republic of Ilford looking :D ?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    logical_song said:

    isam said:

    Philip_Thompson said:
    » show previous quotes
    I think you're right, so no bet there.

    What "line" would you currently put on how many seats you expect UKIP to have after the next election?

    Haven't given it any thought really... I'd expect us to win a few by elections between now and then
    Maybe, but you'll have competition now from a non-Miliband Labour party and a non-governing LibDem party. UKIP have had a free ride up to now.

    People can vote for Ukip now knowing they won't be letting in Miliband or the SNP... Remains to be seen who labour pick as leader, that could win some kippers back, but equally could cement some too
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    If Balls wants to come back, he would do better to wait a while. A mid-term by-election is always easier to win.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Can the file be seen now?

    My apologies for this. I'm trying to find simple way of showing Andy's tables.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Richard_Nabavi

    'I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.'

    Yes, by default,the Lib Dems only blocked implementation for the 2015 GE.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Freggles said:

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?

    I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.
    As long as they don't lump in Ilford town centre with any part of Newham :)
    All you Labour seats are getting lumped together as one massive seat. And safe Tory seats are split into two, such as Witney North and Witney South.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Plato said:

    Take a look at @JohnRentoul's Tweet: https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/597405282248105984?s=09

    Why do we still think Ed is Crap?

    Ed won more seats for Labour than Foot did in 1983 or Kinnock did in 1987!

    :lol::lol:
    How is the socialist republic of Ilford looking :D ?
    Well, I'm sort of glad Wes won, but I'm also glad Dave won nationally. Funny sort of feeling.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Can you see the file now ?
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MikeSmithson said:

    Can the file be seen now?

    My apologies for this. I'm trying to find simple way of showing Andy's tables.

    Yes.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    samana haq @samhaqitv

    Norman Lamb confirms to ITV Anglia that he will stand for the Lib Dem leadership

    Phew. I'm on Lamb from a while back

    There's your continuity Clegg candidate. I wonder if any Lords will go for it?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    7 out of 7 Glasgow seats not even in the top 114.

    Gone for 50 years.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Did I read somewhere is that Cameron will bring in the new boundaries but will not reduce the size of the commons from the current 650
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    So Labour only need a 0.44% swing to wipe out a Tory majority.

    Note that well people confident on a 1,000 year Tory reich
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.

  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    For those wanting to do your own analysis I present

    ***RESULTS RESULTS RESULTS***

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/6mb2iroir0odk1h/2015results.csv?dl=0

    It's a CSV file of all the results from the this general election
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can you see the file now ?

    MikeSmithson said:

    Can the file be seen now?

    My apologies for this. I'm trying to find simple way of showing Andy's tables.

    Yes we can see it now, many thanks (and AndyJS!).
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Labour need a bigger swing to win back Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath then they need to take Kingswood?

    A bigger swing to take back Glasgow Central than to defeat IDS in Chingford & Woodford Green?

    That list is so funny, in so many ways.
  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2015
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT, but more relevant to this thread:

    May need to be re-worked. From the Conservative manifesto:

    In the next Parliament, we will address the unfairness of the current Parliamentary boundaries, reduce the number of MPs to 600 to cut the cost of politics and make votes of more equal value. We will implement the boundary reforms that Parliament has already approved and make them apply automatically once the Boundary Commission reports in 2018.

    Interesting. It suggests removing both Houses of Parliament's right to veto the draft Order in Council giving effect to the boundary changes (Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986, s. 4(3)), and imposing a duty on the Secretary of State to submit a draft of the Order to Her Majesty for approval. The difficulty will be whether it will be possible to retain the ouster clause protecting the Order in Council from judicial review if the requirement for Parliamentary approval is abrogated. Section 4(7) of the Act provides:
    The validity of any Order in Council purporting to be made under this Act and reciting that a draft of the Order has been approved by resolution of each House of Parliament shall not be called in question in any legal proceedings whatsoever.
    The courts will be far less likely to respect an ouster clause which excludes review of a purely executive function. Making approval of the boundary changes automatic will be of limited use if the making of the Order in Council is subject to lengthy judicial review proceedings, as occurred before the passage of the 1986 Act.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    Absolutely. Its just dawning on everyone it seems that Cameron pledging an In/Out referendum have meant UKIP have morphed away from a "we need a vote on Europe" party that appealed to the Tory right ... and into a "we don't like modernity" grumpy people's party that appeals as much if not more to lifelong Labour voters.

    Its not a serious party of government. And Tory voters by and large are so not due to any romance to the Tory party but because they act and vote seriously. That is why UKIP won't defeat the Conservatives - but could under a new Red Kipper leader deal an immense amount of damage to the Northern heartlands of Labour.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @chrisshipitv: I hear @Anna_Soubry is next to arrive in Downing Street to hear about her new job ... #reshuffle
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    MikeSmithson said:

    Did I read somewhere is that Cameron will bring in the new boundaries but will not reduce the size of the commons from the current 650

    That was in yesterday's Sunday Times but today's Times says he'll go for 600
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited May 2015
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    Who knows? I'd sell astonished.

    I think if the polls showing neck and neck had been accurate or if the polls had been showing the actual result we would have won a few seats. It was a perfect storm for non kippers
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeSmithson said:

    Did I read somewhere is that Cameron will bring in the new boundaries but will not reduce the size of the commons from the current 650

    The Sunday Times had that story - said didn't want to peeve any backbenchers.

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    richardDodd said:

    Apparently going out into the world and making oodles of money is not too appealing to Mr Balls...I wonder how many highly paid job offers...as an Economist... he has had since Friday..

    I blame this Tory led government for ruining the economy and destroying job opportunities such that Ed Balls has no choice but either sign on or try and get back into parliament.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Ah - I see the file now - only 30 seats for Labour to get on a swing of less than 4% - and 3 of them in Scotland. That does not look especially easy.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Been out ... sorry if already covered.. not half as much as I did!

    The Prime Minister also congratulated the newly elected Victoria Borwick with a bear hug as she went in, and told the huddle of hacks that one of the stand-out moments for him was seeing Kelly Tolhurst beat Mark Reckless in Rochester.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/a-chipper-cameron-begins-to-woo-the-1922-committee/
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: I hear @Anna_Soubry is next to arrive in Downing Street to hear about her new job ... #reshuffle

    Thought she'd given up ?
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SouthamObserver said:

    If Balls wants to come back, he would do better to wait a while. A mid-term by-election is always easier to win.

    He should go off and do something else for a couple of years. See a bit of the world outside of Westminster.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    7 out of 7 Glasgow seats not even in the top 114.

    Gone for 50 years.

    Glasgow broke the BBC Swing-o-meter
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Freggles said:

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?

    I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.
    As long as they don't lump in Ilford town centre with any part of Newham :)
    All you Labour seats are getting lumped together as one massive seat. And safe Tory seats are split into two, such as Witney North and Witney South.
    "You Labour"?

    Hey, I was with you all the time! Didn't we do great on Thursday night?! :)
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    SouthamObserver said:

    If Balls wants to come back, he would do better to wait a while. A mid-term by-election is always easier to win.

    Yes, but would any constituency want him? Of course his wife could always stand down and let him have her seat - what are the odds on that?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Pulpstar said:

    7 out of 7 Glasgow seats not even in the top 114.

    Gone for 50 years.

    That very much depends on whether a Constitutional settlement is finalised between now and 2020.
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: I hear @Anna_Soubry is next to arrive in Downing Street to hear about her new job ... #reshuffle

    Thought she'd given up ?
    Has Chief Sec to the Treasury been filled yet?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: I hear @Anna_Soubry is next to arrive in Downing Street to hear about her new job ... #reshuffle

    Thought she'd given up ?
    Just imagine the size of the Tory Majority if Dave's heart had been really in it.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 18h 18 hours ago
    Disgusting pro-#Labour bias on the London Underground ( #Tube )

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597469272923885569

    :lol:

    The same stuff is endemic on the roads as well :)
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Did I read somewhere is that Cameron will bring in the new boundaries but will not reduce the size of the commons from the current 650

    That was in yesterday's Sunday Times but today's Times says he'll go for 600

    How many of the 50 would be blue seats anyway ? 15 ?

    Add in natural wastage and there might not be many disgruntled.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Labour only need a 0.44% swing to wipe out a Tory majority.

    Note that well people confident on a 1,000 year Tory reich

    Tory Raj, surely?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Freggles said:

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?

    I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.
    As long as they don't lump in Ilford town centre with any part of Newham :)
    All you Labour seats are getting lumped together as one massive seat. And safe Tory seats are split into two, such as Witney North and Witney South.
    "You Labour"?

    Hey, I was with you all the time! Didn't we do great on Thursday night?! :)
    You voted Labour.

    You need to do some penance before you can become a PB Tory again.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Financier said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If Balls wants to come back, he would do better to wait a while. A mid-term by-election is always easier to win.

    Yes, but would any constituency want him? Of course his wife could always stand down and let him have her seat - what are the odds on that?

    Portillo came back. Like Mike, Ed needs to learn some humility. Part of that is a spell in the wilderness. Plenty of constituency parties like the idea of being represented by a big beast.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    SouthamObserver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    7 out of 7 Glasgow seats not even in the top 114.

    Gone for 50 years.

    That very much depends on whether a Constitutional settlement is finalised between now and 2020.
    50 years at the very least. Possibly forever...
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCJLandale: Politics can be so brutal. Tory MPs have taken over the Lib Dems' table in the Commons tea rooms.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I hope my new MP Caroline Ansell gets a gig soon. She's very personable and good media face.
    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: I hear @Anna_Soubry is next to arrive in Downing Street to hear about her new job ... #reshuffle

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Did I read somewhere is that Cameron will bring in the new boundaries but will not reduce the size of the commons from the current 650

    That was in yesterday's Sunday Times but today's Times says he'll go for 600

    How many of the 50 would be blue seats anyway ? 15 ?

    Add in natural wastage and there might not be many disgruntled.
    I thought it was 20.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Pulpstar said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    7 out of 7 Glasgow seats not even in the top 114.

    Gone for 50 years.

    That very much depends on whether a Constitutional settlement is finalised between now and 2020.
    50 years at the very least. Possibly forever...

    If I were younger I'd offer you a bet ;-)

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    SouthamObserver said:

    Ed needs to learn some humility. Part of that is a spell in the wilderness.

    Does Ibiza count?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Labour only need a 0.44% swing to wipe out a Tory majority.

    Note that well people confident on a 1,000 year Tory reich

    Tory Raj, surely?
    Only if Priti Patel or Sajid Javid become Tory leader.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?
    Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.

    Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.

    It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Did I read somewhere is that Cameron will bring in the new boundaries but will not reduce the size of the commons from the current 650

    That was in yesterday's Sunday Times but today's Times says he'll go for 600

    How many of the 50 would be blue seats anyway ? 15 ?

    Add in natural wastage and there might not be many disgruntled.
    I thought it was 20.
    Cameron's seat will be up - that makes 19..
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Freggles said:

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?

    I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.
    As long as they don't lump in Ilford town centre with any part of Newham :)
    All you Labour seats are getting lumped together as one massive seat. And safe Tory seats are split into two, such as Witney North and Witney South.
    "You Labour"?

    Hey, I was with you all the time! Didn't we do great on Thursday night?! :)
    You voted Labour.

    You need to do some penance before you can become a PB Tory again.
    I think I know why I voted Labour on Thursday.

    I'm an extremely shy Tory.

    In fact I'm so painfully shy, I found myself physically incapable of marking an 'X' in the Con box on my ballot paper.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?
    Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.

    Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
    Is that Rob "UKIP have four seats in the bag" Ford? That Rob Ford?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Is this the next use for the EdStone?
    http://www.ancient-origins.net/news-history-archaeology/archaeologists-india-discovery-ancient-hero-stones-retell-epic-battles-020329
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hunt stays at health - good.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    felix said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 18h 18 hours ago
    Disgusting pro-#Labour bias on the London Underground ( #Tube )

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/597469272923885569

    :lol:

    The same stuff is endemic on the roads as well :)
    Well, at least on the road it's "give way to the RIGHT" at roundabouts :lol:
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Freggles said:

    So the boundaries that were worked up, will they be implemented or just there as a fall back?

    I'm not sure, but I think that by default they will be implenented as previously proposed. Maybe with some minor updating, though.
    As long as they don't lump in Ilford town centre with any part of Newham :)
    All you Labour seats are getting lumped together as one massive seat. And safe Tory seats are split into two, such as Witney North and Witney South.
    "You Labour"?

    Hey, I was with you all the time! Didn't we do great on Thursday night?! :)
    You voted Labour.

    You need to do some penance before you can become a PB Tory again.
    I think I know why I voted Labour on Thursday.

    I'm an extremely shy Tory.

    In fact I'm so painfully shy, I found myself physically incapable of marking an 'X' in the Con box on my ballot paper.
    You need to join the Tory party. That will help with your shyness.

    That said I've been a member of the Tory party for 18 years and I'm still shy in so many ways.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    Roughly a 5% swing for Labour to get most seats? Which would require a result like Lab 35% Con 32%.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Excellent and interesting data, as always. What seats , I wonder, could the Tories expect to aim for if they do get this parliament right?

    I noticed shrinking majorities in the Stoke seats for example. Tristram might be vulnerable, especially if the Tories could find a worker or BME candidate.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited May 2015
    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.

    It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period

    There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.

  • Baskerville
    Baskerville Posts: 391
    Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway".
    Personally, I think they will go for both.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Labour only need a 0.44% swing to wipe out a Tory majority.

    Note that well people confident on a 1,000 year Tory reich

    Tory Raj, surely?
    Only if Priti Patel or Sajid Javid become Tory leader.
    "Tory Reich" would only be applicable if Gisela Stuart defects and becomes Tory leader.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?
    Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.

    Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
    Is that Rob "UKIP have four seats in the bag" Ford? That Rob Ford?
    That's the one!
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/597749509897203713
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Baskerville said:

    Looks like Gatwick wins the extra runway... but don't rule out the runway extension at Heathrow, as it's not "a new runway".
    Personally, I think they will go for both.

    http://www.gatwickobviously.com/
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.

    It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period

    There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.

    I think there's a rocky road ahead. As you say, people have been variously predicting the death of the Left (or Right) for decades. The country deserves a period of good government that's not based on ideology but common sense and compassion. I hope we get it.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    What s the position with members of cabinet and the EU referendum? Will they have to follow a line or are they going to be free to campaign as they wish?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    Do you have a view on where the UKIP votes will go, or do you think they are mostly up for grabs?
    Well, I'm sure people like Rob Ford will be doing a proper analysis of where UKIP did well, but my initial impression is that (as I had suggested here might happen) there was more UKIP->Con swingback than there was UKIP->Lab swingback. It's possible that in the end they damaged Lab more than Con. So in principle there could be an opportunity for Labour to gain more if I'm right and UKIP does decline.

    Still, it's rather early to speculate. It depends a lot on whether UKIP continue their shift leftwards, and on whether Labour manage to revive their appeal to the WWC.
    Is that Rob "UKIP have four seats in the bag" Ford? That Rob Ford?
    That's the one!
    Well he does have a new book out soon.

    High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.

    He swiftly deleted those tweets when the data tables came out.
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    is the Cabinet getting bigger again?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SouthamObserver said:

    What s the position with members of cabinet and the EU referendum? Will they have to follow a line or are they going to be free to campaign as they wish?

    Not clear yet, but there will be a hell of a row if they are not free to campaign on either side. If I were Dave I wouldn't take that one on.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Patrick said:

    Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?


    Tweet them. Then include a link to the tweet in your post.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Mr observer you are of course correct. But remember, we are coming off a period where the picture of English politics we were sold was an utterly incorrect one. I felt in my deepest instinct that the polls and the presentation of Ed as a serious contender for prime minister were completely wrong. And you can check my many posts to that effect.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well he does have a new book out soon.

    High point of this year was him criticising the ComRes Thanet South poll without seeing the data tables.

    He swiftly deleted those tweets when the data tables came out.

    He's a good guy. Admittedly a leftie, but on the plus side he went to Christ Church.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    MarkHopkins said:

    Patrick said:

    Technical question if I may: I wish to make a post that requires me to embed a chart. How do I do that (a la Elbow)?


    Tweet them. Then include a link to the tweet in your post.
    At work - no twitter access...
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited May 2015
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.

    It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period

    There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.

    Indeed.. But it is understandable, they won!

    'Look in the book' as they say in cricket

    Tory backbenchers can now defeat the govt in a way that wasn't possible when the coalition was in charge. Many Cameroons preferred the coalition because of this.

    Also, a vote for Ukip in the future will not mean Miliband or Sturgeon in charge. If Miliband was PM many con-ukip waverers would be blaming themselves for voting Ukip. I don't think ex lab that voted Ukip are blaming themselves for the Cameron majority, I am certainly not
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    We've passed peak Kipper. They are not taking the referendum seriously, and instead look set to fall back into a 'country's gone to the dogs' protest party, a sort of BNP without the nasty bits. There's certainly room for such a party, but I'd be astonshed if the GE2020 vote share isn't down on GE2015.

    If that is the case, it could be good news for Labour.

    It's more likely to be wishful thinking in the midst of a honeymoon period

    There is ever such a slight whiff of hubris and triumphalism in the PB air these days. Understandable, of course, but worth remembering for the times when things are not so good for the Tories as they are right now. One good thing about getting older is that you get a sense of perspective. We have been here before. Things change. Sometimes very quickly.

    Yes I know you didn't engage in it personally but the triumphalism of IOS and many other lefties here on Wednesday night after ICM etc showed a tie was quite a sight to behold. Changed very quickly afterwards too as you said.
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