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I agree , wish he would post more of his own position.foxinsoxuk said:
Scott_P does some quite thoughtful posts when he escapes the twittersphere. I wish he would do so a little more often.murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....
The constant tweets are over done.0 -
They did it because it was the right thing to do , not for personal gain as was shown vividly later. An alien concept to Westminster troughers for sure, they care not a jot about the voters.dr_spyn said:
Would the SNP have done it had they known Margaret Thatcher would hold power for so long. On the other hand without Thatcher they wouldn't have been able to demonise the Tories in Scotland for the last 25 years.surbiton said:
1979. The traitors have form.DecrepitJohnL said:
SNP voting with Conservatives to bring down a Labour government? Has that ever happened before?Moses_ said:0 -
No offence, but I trust the predictions of election experts like Kellner, Curtice, Butler and even posters like JackW (with a long established track record) than partisan supporters.surbiton said:When is a poll projection not a poll projection ? When experts meddle with it.
In 2010, Ben Page said it would be a hung parliament. His figures said so. He changed his mind because he did not want to be out on a limb.
I just looked at Yougov Politics page.
Nowcast says Lab 276, Con 272, SNP 52, LDP 24. Not a million miles from my projections based on UNS.
But Kellner, of course, does not either believe his own figures or wants to be safe-first.
So, he says: Lab 261, Con 283, SNP 50, LDP 32.
What is the basis of this projection ? Because Kellner is an expert. So, he wants to be part of the herd.
This time the LD bubble is going to burst. They are even more toxic than the Tories because of Clegg. Clegg is radio-active !
All put the Tories in a tight 280-305 twenty-five seat band.
I agree with you that the Lib Dems could be in for a very torrid time indeed.
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Reverse Lab and Con and that's roughly the level of contact I've had in Cannock, one of which was for council elections. I think I also had one canvasser that I didn't answer the door to as I was working at the time and didn't want to break off to get irritated by some earnest person trying to persuade me of the merits of their party.Chameleon said:
Wow, I live in a super safe seat and I've had:
5 Con
2 Lab
1 Lib
1 Grn
3 UKIP
2 Ind
3 Residents Grp.
(some of these may have been for the similarly super-safe council seat elections.)
I've been wondering if the fact that I live on an ex-council estate has a bearing on this. Maybe regarded as terra incognita for the Tories (bedroom tax) and taken for granted by Labour? If so I think they are misreading it - I would say voters in my immediate area are roughly evenly split, perhaps about 5% in favour of Labour. Bearing in mind a lot of people bought houses under Thatcher and some of them are rented out (like mine).0 -
Northerners and their spelling, tskSandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!
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They voted to keep the current system in a forced choice between two flawed options.CuthbertBede said:
With the utmost respect, they voted against AV, not for FPTP. I voted no, for example, but would have voted yes if the referendum had been for a more proportionate voting system.Charles said:
So the fact that the people voted to retain FPTP means you should do an end round around their wishes?surbiton said:
This is brilliant. It should be propagated in a big way until PR is introduced.Moses_ said:Meanwhile you may end up with the candidate in your area that no one voted for....
"Thousands of disillusioned voters across the country are pledging to trade their votes with other people using swapping websites. Joe Tidy reports."
http://news.sky.com/video/1477184/thousands-planning-to-vote-swap
But if you don't like the answer, campaign for change and persuade people to adopt a new system. Just because you don't like the law of the land, you don't have the right to corrupt its intended purpose.0 -
Top chappy from Survation on Sky at 09300
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Newcastle to go down I think. Always enjoy seeing that0
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Rattled lefty syndrome really is a thing at the moment.RobD said:
Quite an ironic comment, given the other comments down threadOllyT said:Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
Scott_P did not invent twitter, and twitter did not invent the #Edstone. ed invented the #Edstone, because he is crap. A little redirecting of fire would therefore be in order.
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He is winning !Mortimer said:Amazing how confident Ed Miliband is. Considering he says DC has lost every argument, perhaps he should wonder why he doesn't appear to be winning.
Very interesting how little we've heard from Mandelson, Campbell, even Harman. People who know what it is like to lose and don't want to be associated with it?0 -
Roger Moore, Michael Caine, Andrew Lloyd-Webber.. But I'm not sure it's something to shout about for any party.dyedwoolie said:
As are Sean Pertwee and Martin FreemanCasino_Royale said:
Stephen Fry and Hugh Laurie are also fans. Perhaps they put something in your tea when you go to acting school.dyedwoolie said:
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick nextCasino_Royale said:
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
Edit - the Tories have Adam Ricketts and William Roache though
Is John Cleese still a Lib Dem?0 -
It is probably miserable already having to read all this bolloxYBarddCwsc said:
Scott is not copying and pasting “everything from twitter”.murali_s said:
It is NOT about getting someone banned - it's about common sense!YBarddCwsc said:
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.murali_s said:
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
You don’t do your argument any favours by exaggerating.
Nobody reads every posting on a blog. There are some posters whose views I value (on all sides of the spectrum). I read their posts. There are some posters who post complete nonsense. I skip their posts.
If we all appealed to the mods over posters we don’t like, their life would be miserable.0 -
As a Boro fan I'm relatively optimistic - we beat Brentford home and away (5-0 aggregate) and also recorded big wins against Ipswich and Norwich. However, the Wembley hoodoo is my big concern. I don't think a team from the North-East (discounting non-league) has won a game at Wembley since Sunderland in 1973!SandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
It will be better for Scotland politically when they are Independent.dr_spyn said:
Would the SNP have done it had they known Margaret Thatcher would hold power for so long. On the other hand without Thatcher they wouldn't have been able to demonise the Tories in Scotland for the last 25 years.surbiton said:
1979. The traitors have form.DecrepitJohnL said:
SNP voting with Conservatives to bring down a Labour government? Has that ever happened before?Moses_ said:
The SNP will have done their job , then people can vote for what they believe in apart from the nation state.
Malc g and others can then vote for center right parties, with another name apart from conservative I suspect.0 -
I don't think vote swapping is corrupting the purpose of the electoral system. Voters have an absolute right to vote as they please, for any reason other than pecuniary gain.Charles said:
They voted to keep the current system in a forced choice between two flawed options.CuthbertBede said:
With the utmost respect, they voted against AV, not for FPTP. I voted no, for example, but would have voted yes if the referendum had been for a more proportionate voting system.Charles said:
So the fact that the people voted to retain FPTP means you should do an end round around their wishes?surbiton said:
This is brilliant. It should be propagated in a big way until PR is introduced.Moses_ said:Meanwhile you may end up with the candidate in your area that no one voted for....
"Thousands of disillusioned voters across the country are pledging to trade their votes with other people using swapping websites. Joe Tidy reports."
http://news.sky.com/video/1477184/thousands-planning-to-vote-swap
But if you don't like the answer, campaign for change and persuade people to adopt a new system. Just because you don't like the law of the land, you don't have the right to corrupt its intended purpose.
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Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.0
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I don't think a lot of their supporters will mind that much either...dyedwoolie said:Newcastle to go down I think. Always enjoy seeing that
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Tories might be planning to do something similar. Hate to burst your bubbleSMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
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The BBC is full of bloody Tories: Humphreys, Paxman, Neil, Robinson... I think Landale is too. Another Eton boy.roserees64 said:Miliband doing really well against Welsh Tory Humphreys. Miliband is quietly confident and not at all rattled. Idea of a 'balanced plan' gaining traction.
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Don't forget the Brothers Bus to ferry the crusty old traitors to the booth.SMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
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Cameron did 24hrs campaign in 2010...RobD said:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Tories might be planning to do something similar. Hate to burst your bubbleSMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
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He's not winning, he is unlikely to have an overall majority. And even if he is the leader of the largest party, we were firmly informed by the Labour supporters on here in 2010 that that is not called "winning".surbiton said:
He is winning !Mortimer said:Amazing how confident Ed Miliband is. Considering he says DC has lost every argument, perhaps he should wonder why he doesn't appear to be winning.
Very interesting how little we've heard from Mandelson, Campbell, even Harman. People who know what it is like to lose and don't want to be associated with it?
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Given that Boro was originally called Port Darlington it could be worse...dyedwoolie said:
Northerners and their spelling, tskSandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Not sure. Didn't Natural Law have a fair smattering of the glitterati in the brief window of their existence?Casino_Royale said:
Roger Moore, Michael Caine, Andrew Lloyd-Webber.. But I'm not sure it's something to shout about for any party.dyedwoolie said:
As are Sean Pertwee and Martin FreemanCasino_Royale said:
Stephen Fry and Hugh Laurie are also fans. Perhaps they put something in your tea when you go to acting school.dyedwoolie said:
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick nextCasino_Royale said:
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
Edit - the Tories have Adam Ricketts and William Roache though
Is John Cleese still a Lib Dem?0 -
Don't know - Sandy Toksvig was, but has now started her own party.Casino_Royale said:
Roger Moore, Michael Caine, Andrew Lloyd-Webber.. But I'm not sure it's something to shout about for any party.dyedwoolie said:
As are Sean Pertwee and Martin FreemanCasino_Royale said:
Stephen Fry and Hugh Laurie are also fans. Perhaps they put something in your tea when you go to acting school.dyedwoolie said:
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick nextCasino_Royale said:
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
Edit - the Tories have Adam Ricketts and William Roache though
Is John Cleese still a Lib Dem?
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Woolie,
"Middlesborough have to be favourites,"
The Budgies won't be at Wembley, and I fancy Ipswich to go all the way. Mick has form in getting teams up to the Premier. And form in taking them back to the Championship too0 -
RobD said:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Tories might be planning to do something similar. Hate to burst your bubbleSMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
Sure.Labour vote is generally harder to motivate to vote and that`s why the groundwork is important.
But clearly you haven`t canvassed recently.In the London marginals the Tories haven`t got the manpower and are sending leaflets through post when Lib Dem,Labour,Green,UKIP,Independents and even NOTA party managed to hand-deliver them.0 -
Now it's simply known as the dumpeek said:
Given that Boro was originally called Port Darlington it could be worse...dyedwoolie said:
Northerners and their spelling, tskSandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Ha! As if the tractor boys are going anywhere! They are dire and very lucky to be in the play offs at all. Which means they'll probably nick it!CD13 said:Woolie,
"Middlesborough have to be favourites,"
The Budgies won't be at Wembley, and I fancy Ipswich to go all the way. Mick has form in getting teams up to the Premier. And form in taking them back to the Championship too0 -
Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright..
LOL.....Totally rattled by that labour uncut story and Edstonegate, are we??
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One of the antecedents of the club went by the wonderful name of Middlesbrough Ironopolis.eek said:
Given that Boro was originally called Port Darlington it could be worse...dyedwoolie said:
Northerners and their spelling, tskSandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Surely that's just a prioritisation of resources thing. If you have more money you pay for envelopes and stamps, and send your activists to where they are most needed. Leafleting by hand seems a very poor use of resources to me.SMukesh said:RobD said:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Tories might be planning to do something similar. Hate to burst your bubbleSMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
Sure.Labour vote is generally harder to motivate to vote and that`s why the groundwork is important.
But clearly you haven`t canvassed recently.In the London marginals the Tories haven`t got the manpower and are sending leaflets through post when Lib Dem,Labour,Green,UKIP,Independents and even NOTA party managed to hand-deliver them.0 -
Differential groundwork was the Yes secret weapon at Indyref, and the Tory secret weapon in R&S. GOTV asserters take note.0
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The enormous discrepancy on Betfair's GE Most Seats market continues unabated with Labour on offer at 6.0 (that's 4.75/1 net of comm'n) and the Tories on 1.19 (or 2/9 net in old money).
As I suggested last night, this not only means that the Betfair punters think the Tories will win, but that they will win big, probably by 30 or more seats.
Apart from our own JackW, there are no other respected forecasters who have the Blue team so far ahead ....... interesting.
Of course, the Betfair punters could be wrong, but in a major betting matket such as this, they are certainly making a bold statement.0 -
Except you don`t identify who your voters are.JohnLilburne said:
Surely that's just a prioritisation of resources thing. If you have more money you pay for envelopes and stamps, and send your activists to where they are most needed. Leafleting by hand seems a very poor use of resources to me.SMukesh said:RobD said:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Tories might be planning to do something similar. Hate to burst your bubbleSMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
Sure.Labour vote is generally harder to motivate to vote and that`s why the groundwork is important.
But clearly you haven`t canvassed recently.In the London marginals the Tories haven`t got the manpower and are sending leaflets through post when Lib Dem,Labour,Green,UKIP,Independents and even NOTA party managed to hand-deliver them.
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Anyone want yo stick their neck out for shock of the night?
For Labour - Norwich North and the lovely Jess to beat Chloe
Tories - both Southampton seats to turn blue
SNP - 50 seats but they will lose one 'banker'
Lib Dems - holding on here!
UKIP - Carswell to hold on (just), no other seats0 -
"pecuniary gain"JohnLilburne said:
I don't think vote swapping is corrupting the purpose of the electoral system. Voters have an absolute right to vote as they please, for any reason other than pecuniary gain.Charles said:
They voted to keep the current system in a forced choice between two flawed options.CuthbertBede said:
With the utmost respect, they voted against AV, not for FPTP. I voted no, for example, but would have voted yes if the referendum had been for a more proportionate voting system.Charles said:
So the fact that the people voted to retain FPTP means you should do an end round around their wishes?surbiton said:
This is brilliant. It should be propagated in a big way until PR is introduced.Moses_ said:Meanwhile you may end up with the candidate in your area that no one voted for....
"Thousands of disillusioned voters across the country are pledging to trade their votes with other people using swapping websites. Joe Tidy reports."
http://news.sky.com/video/1477184/thousands-planning-to-vote-swap
But if you don't like the answer, campaign for change and persuade people to adopt a new system. Just because you don't like the law of the land, you don't have the right to corrupt its intended purpose.
Which is ironic, since many voters do vote for pecuniary gain - just indirectly via the policies of the party they support.
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Because their vote is more important than the right of people to select their local representative without intervention from outside?OllyT said:
It's the price you pay for having a non-proportional voting system. People will simply find ways to try and make their vote count.GeoffM said:
This is a disgrace and should be illegal. It's certainly not ethical. Why should I have my local MP elected by random people who have never even visited my constituency?Moses_ said:Meanwhile you may end up with the candidate in your area that no one voted for....
"Thousands of disillusioned voters across the country are pledging to trade their votes with other people using swapping websites. Joe Tidy reports."
http://news.sky.com/video/1477184/thousands-planning-to-vote-swap0 -
Interesting stat on NE teams at Wembley. I wish I had got a quid on Newcastle to go down a couple of weeks back. I am sure i saw 2000 on Betfair, but I was looking at Leicesters odds.ThomasNashe said:
As a Boro fan I'm relatively optimistic - we beat Brentford home and away (5-0 aggregate) and also recorded big wins against Ipswich and Norwich. However, the Wembley hoodoo is my big concern. I don't think a team from the North-East (discounting non-league) has won a game at Wembley since Sunderland in 1973!SandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!
John Cleese is still a Lib Dem. There has been a fundraising raffle to have dinner with him and Paddy. I shall report back if I win!0 -
Why should I be rattled?taffys said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright..
LOL.....Totally rattled by that labour uncut story and Edstonegate, are we??
The focus now shifts onto the ground war on Thursday and the Cons haven`t got a hope in hell of matching Labour in the marginals.We`ll get our vote out.If they can match that and more,good luck to them.0 -
Is your definition of a Tory anyone who doesn't fawn over Labour politicians?surbiton said:
The BBC is full of bloody Tories: Humphreys, Paxman, Neil, Robinson... I think Landale is too. Another Eton boy.roserees64 said:Miliband doing really well against Welsh Tory Humphreys. Miliband is quietly confident and not at all rattled. Idea of a 'balanced plan' gaining traction.
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https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/595127278754988032ydoethur said:
I sense a famous bar graph coming on - 'can't win here...'surbiton said:
He is winning !0 -
Labour, what first attracted you to the millionaire Ed Miliband?0
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I thought the evidence was that turnout in marginals was no better than in safe seats.SMukesh said:
Why should I be rattled?taffys said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright..
LOL.....Totally rattled by that labour uncut story and Edstonegate, are we??
The focus now shifts onto the ground war on Thursday and the Cons haven`t got a hope in hell of matching Labour in the marginals.We`ll get our vote out.If they can match that and more,good luck to them.0 -
Betfair historically isn't famously smart on political betting. The 2004 US presidential election is a classic example of it.peter_from_putney said:The enormous discrepancy on Betfair's GE Most Seats market continues unabated with Labour on offer at 6.0 (that's 4.75/1 net of comm'n) and the Tories on 1.19 (or 2/9 net in old money).
As I suggested last night, this not only means that the Betfair punters think the Tories will win, but that they will win big, probably by 30 or more seats.
Apart from our own JackW, there are no other respected forecasters who have the Blue team so far ahead ....... interesting.
Of course, the Betfair punters could be wrong, but in a major betting matket such as this, they are certainly making a bold statement.
There will be vast profits to be made for those that focus on the raw numbers, listening to media commentators is the road to ruin
0 -
''Sure.Labour vote is generally harder to motivate to vote and that`s why the groundwork is important.''.
That's certainly true of every election since 2014, when your vote has failed to live up to its often mediocre poll score. Sometimes quite dramatically.
I'm betting your 'vote' is softer than an ice cream in August.0 -
You do not identify them by pushing stuff through the letter box especially if they are away at work. Hand delivering of leaflets is not the same as canvassing is it?SMukesh said:
Except you don`t identify who your voters are.JohnLilburne said:
Surely that's just a prioritisation of resources thing. If you have more money you pay for envelopes and stamps, and send your activists to where they are most needed. Leafleting by hand seems a very poor use of resources to me.SMukesh said:RobD said:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Tories might be planning to do something similar. Hate to burst your bubbleSMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
Sure.Labour vote is generally harder to motivate to vote and that`s why the groundwork is important.
But clearly you haven`t canvassed recently.In the London marginals the Tories haven`t got the manpower and are sending leaflets through post when Lib Dem,Labour,Green,UKIP,Independents and even NOTA party managed to hand-deliver them.0 -
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!SMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
0 -
GOTV asserters take note.
Its a secret ballot FFS. How does anybody know those people you herded to the polling station even voted for you?
0 -
LOL Simon Blackwell on Ed's Millistone.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/05/03/12/2844170200000578-3065977-image-m-28_1430651676333.jpg0 -
That CCHQ tweet is funny as - proper bar chart nonsense!0
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I`ll take your word for it.foxinsoxuk said:
I thought the evidence was that turnout in marginals was no better than in safe seats.SMukesh said:
Why should I be rattled?taffys said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright..
LOL.....Totally rattled by that labour uncut story and Edstonegate, are we??
The focus now shifts onto the ground war on Thursday and the Cons haven`t got a hope in hell of matching Labour in the marginals.We`ll get our vote out.If they can match that and more,good luck to them.
Certainly Labour are focussed on getting known Labour voters out to vote in the marginals.It`s a fall-out from 2010 when they managed to save several close seats with focussed ground war.0 -
Ah, that's door knocking or canvassing to me, not leafleting when someone just sticks it through your door.SMukesh said:
Except you don`t identify who your voters are.JohnLilburne said:
Surely that's just a prioritisation of resources thing. If you have more money you pay for envelopes and stamps, and send your activists to where they are most needed. Leafleting by hand seems a very poor use of resources to me.SMukesh said:RobD said:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest the Tories might be planning to do something similar. Hate to burst your bubbleSMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
Sure.Labour vote is generally harder to motivate to vote and that`s why the groundwork is important.
But clearly you haven`t canvassed recently.In the London marginals the Tories haven`t got the manpower and are sending leaflets through post when Lib Dem,Labour,Green,UKIP,Independents and even NOTA party managed to hand-deliver them.
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For the record - I don't want Scott P banned. I just want the mods to tell him he drags down the quality of the site and breaks up discussion for no good reason and thus to stop the copying and pasteing.
-1 -
Leicester City were Leicester Fosse until we officially became a city in 1920. Fosse means ditch, and the team were affectionately known as the fossils!ThomasNashe said:
One of the antecedents of the club went by the wonderful name of Middlesbrough Ironopolis.eek said:
Given that Boro was originally called Port Darlington it could be worse...dyedwoolie said:
Northerners and their spelling, tskSandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
And didn't we hear about it!Ishmael_X said:Differential groundwork was the Yes secret weapon at Indyref
As it turned out, IIRC the highest turnouts were in 'No' areas, some of the lowest in 'Yes'......
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He's cleverer than that.Moses_ said:
But but but... There will be no dealsScott_P said:@FraserNelson: Listening to Miliband on R4, it's clear: Labour would govern vote-by-vote with the SNP, giving Salmond a veto on every Bill it wants passed.
Pigs fly etc.
He's consistently rules out "a deal" not "deals"...0 -
They seem to have learned something from the coalition with the Lib DemsIOS said:That CCHQ tweet is funny as - proper bar chart nonsense!
0 -
Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!0
-
Except you don`t identify who your voters are.
If you mean we don;t do sweetheart block vote deals with certain communities in exchange for looking the other way when serious crimes are committed, you are correct.0 -
Why don't you bring an apple in for the mods? They will appreciate the thoughtIOS said:For the record - I don't want Scott P banned. I just want the mods to tell him he drags down the quality of the site and breaks up discussion for no good reason and thus to stop the copying and pasteing.
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The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.peter_from_putney said:
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!SMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
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I rather enjoy Scott_P's tweets. I'm not on twitter myself, so it's a useful source of (sometimes) amusing commentkle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.0 -
Its wide open to corruption.JohnLilburne said:
I don't think vote swapping is corrupting the purpose of the electoral system. Voters have an absolute right to vote as they please, for any reason other than pecuniary gain.Charles said:
They voted to keep the current system in a forced choice between two flawed options.CuthbertBede said:
With the utmost respect, they voted against AV, not for FPTP. I voted no, for example, but would have voted yes if the referendum had been for a more proportionate voting system.Charles said:
So the fact that the people voted to retain FPTP means you should do an end round around their wishes?surbiton said:
This is brilliant. It should be propagated in a big way until PR is introduced.Moses_ said:Meanwhile you may end up with the candidate in your area that no one voted for....
"Thousands of disillusioned voters across the country are pledging to trade their votes with other people using swapping websites. Joe Tidy reports."
http://news.sky.com/video/1477184/thousands-planning-to-vote-swap
But if you don't like the answer, campaign for change and persuade people to adopt a new system. Just because you don't like the law of the land, you don't have the right to corrupt its intended purpose.0 -
Clearly the Tories have learnt something from the Lib Dems.....IOS said:That CCHQ tweet is funny as - proper bar chart nonsense!
0 -
Kellner did call the 2012 Mayoral election for Boris about 4 hours before anyone else did. He's a skilled psephologist.surbiton said:When is a poll projection not a poll projection ? When experts meddle with it.
In 2010, Ben Page said it would be a hung parliament. His figures said so. He changed his mind because he did not want to be out on a limb.
I just looked at Yougov Politics page.
Nowcast says Lab 276, Con 272, SNP 52, LDP 24. Not a million miles from my projections based on UNS.
But Kellner, of course, does not either believe his own figures or wants to be safe-first.
So, he says: Lab 261, Con 283, SNP 50, LDP 32.
What is the basis of this projection ? Because Kellner is an expert. So, he wants to be part of the herd.
This time the LD bubble is going to burst. They are even more toxic than the Tories because of Clegg. Clegg is radio-active !
In essence his argument is:-
1. A late swing to the Conservatives is underway (according to Yougov, that is so.)
2. The swing to Labour in marginal Conservative seats (as measured by Yougov) is 1% lower than in England and Wales as a whole.
3. A late swing back to Lib Dem incumbents is underway (as measured by Yougov).
He may be wrong, but there's nothing implausible about his argument.0 -
From DT Janitors?
Mr Miliband's pledge to plonk a lump of limestone on which Labour's manifesto pledges are carved in the Downing Street garden has been greeted with much mirth. On the Today Programme this morning he defended the idea, saying it would be there to remind the "working people" of Labour's promises - never mind that, bar a few secretaries and janitors, few "working people" get to hang out in the rose garden of Number 10
0 -
taffys said:
Except you don`t identify who your voters are.
If you mean we don;t do sweetheart block vote deals with certain communities in exchange for looking the other way when serious crimes are committed, you are correct.
lol.Exactly!IOS said:Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!
0 -
Smukesh
The evidence is that it makes a huge difference - so say all 3 parties and the academics.0 -
Do Labour supporters really forget to vote on General Election day if you don't start reminding them at 6am? Sheesh.SMukesh said:
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.peter_from_putney said:
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!SMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
0 -
Everyone who posts here says their party's ground game/canvass returns are brilliant.IOS said:Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!
0 -
''Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!''
We're going on evidence. How was the ground game in the euros? how was the ground game in Newark. In Clacton. In Rochester. and most of all in Heyward and Middleton.
Labour's performance in all those was shocking, regardless of the 'ground game'.
0 -
Sean
I am sure we will hear very soon just how bad the Tories ground game is.0 -
You think we targetted Rochester and Clacton?
The ground game doesnt mean you win everything - it means you maximise what you can when you turn it on. We didnt even bother with Rochester and Clacton!0 -
Sorry just can resist it regards Ed's moses moment.....
"Those that live in class houses should not show stones"
Gets coat...0 -
I really loved the Labour ground game in Crewetaffys said:
''Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!''
We're going on evidence. How was the ground game in the euros? how was the ground game in Newark. In Clacton. In Rochester. and most of all in Heyward and Middleton.
Labour's performance in all those was shocking, regardless of the 'ground game'.0 -
Leicester appear to have come back from the dead (I think Sunderland, rather than Newcastle will go down with QPR and Burnley - their last two games are against Arsenal and Chelsea). Big Nige was a great Boro captain, and I'm glad Leicester stuck with him in the end.foxinsoxuk said:
Leicester City were Leicester Fosse until we officially became a city in 1920. Fosse means ditch, and the team were affectionately known as the fossils!ThomasNashe said:
One of the antecedents of the club went by the wonderful name of Middlesbrough Ironopolis.eek said:
Given that Boro was originally called Port Darlington it could be worse...dyedwoolie said:
Northerners and their spelling, tskSandyRentool said:
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Mr. Moses, that's rather good.
Mind you, Miliband deserves a slap for copying your idea in the first place.0 -
Damian Lyons of Survation on Sky saying Ed MILIBAND is now ahead of Cameron in ratings? and it`s a foolish Tory strategy of saying it`s a choice between Cameron and Miliband.0
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It seems rather tetchy on here this morning. Jitters all round, I guess.
Anyway, putting the Times front page together with Ed Miliband's comments today, it seems as though there will be a high speed power struggle within Labour if they come second by 20 seats or more.0 -
I do hope all the mirth hasn’t killed the idea.Plato said:From DT Janitors?
Mr Miliband's pledge to plonk a lump of limestone on which Labour's manifesto pledges are carved in the Downing Street garden has been greeted with much mirth. On the Today Programme this morning he defended the idea, saying it would be there to remind the "working people" of Labour's promises - never mind that, bar a few secretaries and janitors, few "working people" get to hang out in the rose garden of Number 10
I very much would like to see the limestone slab in all its glory.
I *think* the images we have seen so far are all computer generated.
0 -
True - "Their" marginal never quite matches the polls.Sean_F said:
Everyone who posts here says their party's ground game/canvass returns are brilliant.IOS said:Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!
0 -
Labour to win Rochester. 66/1 when i last checked.dyedwoolie said:Anyone want yo stick their neck out for shock of the night?
For Labour - Norwich North and the lovely Jess to beat Chloe
Tories - both Southampton seats to turn blue
SNP - 50 seats but they will lose one 'banker'
Lib Dems - holding on here!
UKIP - Carswell to hold on (just), no other seats0 -
Who can forget the Yes-side's '70%+ returns'?Sean_F said:
Everyone who posts here says their party's ground game/canvass returns are brilliant.IOS said:Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!
0 -
Scottish New Progressives...Yorkcity said:
It will be better for Scotland politically when they are Independent.dr_spyn said:
Would the SNP have done it had they known Margaret Thatcher would hold power for so long. On the other hand without Thatcher they wouldn't have been able to demonise the Tories in Scotland for the last 25 years.surbiton said:
1979. The traitors have form.DecrepitJohnL said:
SNP voting with Conservatives to bring down a Labour government? Has that ever happened before?Moses_ said:
The SNP will have done their job , then people can vote for what they believe in apart from the nation state.
Malc g and others can then vote for center right parties, with another name apart from conservative I suspect.0 -
Mr. SMukesh, I forget the poll, but a recent one had Cameron -2, Miliband -19.
As for strategy, the parties have a difficult task, as this election's very close and quite complicated. We'll see how things play out.0 -
Survation = online poll = outlier
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5948255747885096960 -
If you are up at 5:00am and presumably hanging around for the count into the early hours, that's a hard day's work. I admire your commitment.SMukesh said:
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.peter_from_putney said:
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!SMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
Is it the local party activists that do this, or does HQ send in 'flying pickets' to help?
0 -
As are complaints about tweets to which I of course am adding.Yorkcity said:
I agree , wish he would post more of his own position.foxinsoxuk said:
Scott_P does some quite thoughtful posts when he escapes the twittersphere. I wish he would do so a little more often.murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....
The constant tweets are over done.
Repeats of tweets with pictures get me. Massive amount of screen space just repeating something from lower down. Headers set a bad example as well.0 -
The Tories won`t admit it but in this key London marginal which is very much a toss-up,their ground game is non-existent because they lack volunteers.I am told they have had to pay people to canvass.Sean_F said:
Everyone who posts here says their party's ground game/canvass returns are brilliant.IOS said:Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!
0 -
Yes, they have to convince themselves of that for motivational purposes. And it's like asking a soldier on the front-line who's winning the war - they can't possibly know because they don't have the overall arial view.Sean_F said:
Everyone who posts here says their party's ground game/canvass returns are brilliant.IOS said:Labour's ground game is honestly brilliant this election. I really wish I could go into the details of it for people on here. Its so frustrating when you read very ill informed comments about campaigning on here!
0 -
Allocated to the most local base.botanically_speaking said:
If you are up at 5:00am and presumably hanging around for the count into the early hours, that's a hard day's work. I admire your commitment.SMukesh said:
The leafletting will start at 6 AM after preparations.And it`s known supporters rather than undecideds.peter_from_putney said:
I think that if I had a bunch of idiots waking me up by noisily poking leaflets through my letterbox at 5.00 am, that would go a long way towards convincing me to vote for the other side!SMukesh said:Labour vote will get out in the marginals alright...On Thursday,the canvassing say starts at 5 AM with leafletting known Labour voters to remind them there`s an election and subsequently gets busy after 4 to check if they have voted.
Is it the local party activists that do this, or does HQ send in 'flying pickets' to help?0 -
I would have expected loyalty to hold till the election. It is interesting that there are rumbles coming ahead of Thursday.antifrank said:It seems rather tetchy on here this morning. Jitters all round, I guess.
Anyway, putting the Times front page together with Ed Miliband's comments today, it seems as though there will be a high speed power struggle within Labour if they come second by 20 seats or more.
Personally, I am not surprised.
Although Ed is not the only person responsible for problems in Scotland, he certainly is responsible for failing to notice the very real threat after Holyrood 2011 (his first election in charge).
I expect he will pay the price for that misjudgment.0 -
Yes, it'll be interesting to see if Labour supporters call Miliband an election winner on Friday morning. If they do then I suppose they'll have to think of Cameron in 2010 as one too. But at least they'll be able to reinstate Wilson as the four-time election winner that he was generally considered to be prior to May 2010.JohnLilburne said:He's not winning, he is unlikely to have an overall majority. And even if he is the leader of the largest party, we were firmly informed by the Labour supporters on here in 2010 that that is not called "winning".
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I thought I was going to win!foxinsoxuk said:
John Cleese is still a Lib Dem. There has been a fundraising raffle to have dinner with him and Paddy. I shall report back if I win!0 -
Flightpath1 said:
As are complaints about tweets to which I of course am adding.Yorkcity said:
I agree , wish he would post more of his own position.foxinsoxuk said:
Scott_P does some quite thoughtful posts when he escapes the twittersphere. I wish he would do so a little more often.murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....
The constant tweets are over done.
Repeats of tweets with pictures get me. Massive amount of screen space just repeating something from lower down. Headers set a bad example as well.
If anyone replies to a tweet, then delete the "https://" bit off the front of the link.
Then it will not show the whole tweet/pic again.
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Clearly there should be but OGH is wisely reticent about having PB anymore of ARSE cult that it is presently.RobD said:
Is there a facility to replace certain people's posts with emanations from your ARSE?JackW said:
You already have that facility - Skip his posts if you don't like them.OllyT said:Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
0
