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OK, found it and like what I found. Think the airwar has been so poor that local ground wars will assume even greater importance than usual in last few days.JackW said:
It's saying you'll have to wait until tomorrow morning for the final twice weekly projection to be published.Icarus said:A link to Jack's ARSE would be useful - what is it saying today?
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malcolmg said:
Was that when they voted with the 30 traitorous Labour MP's to get rid of a useless bunch of no hopers.surbiton said:
1979. The traitors have form.DecrepitJohnL said:
SNP voting with Conservatives to bring down a Labour government? Has that ever happened before?Moses_ said:
The SNP need a Conservative UK Government .
You do to , so you can vote for a center right government in an Independent Scotland.
It suits you to stir English Nationalism.
You do not say this though, to your anti austerity supporters, with their love in for Nicola.
You really are a trojan horse, for any Scottish left wing supporters0 -
surbiton said:
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.Dixie said:Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.0 -
The SPIN mid-point, showing that punters believe that the tories will have 25 seats more than labour may well be wrong. In fact, Mike Smithson thinks they are wrong, and has bet that they are wrong.
There is much chat about people bettting with their 'hearts, not their heads'. If you talk to the SPIN (or Spreadex) traders, you will find that is no longer accurate. Punters bet on what they think that will happen, not what they want to happen. There are just as many sellers of England runs as buyers. 'Total goals' in a match has nearly as many sellers as buyers, even though everybody wants to see goals. The old, safe view was 'all the canny boys are sellers, the gamblers are buyers' is no longer true. The enthusiastic buyers have mostly 'retired hurt'.
The above is even more true with Betfair (the exception is that India's cricket team is always overbacked with 'sympathy money').
The weight of money is clearly not always right. But on Betfair expecially, it is an extremely accurate snapshot of the current likelihood of an event occurring.0 -
You do wonder what the HQ knows that we never do. And are they right?RochdalePioneers said:
The view in Stockton South is that James Wharton had a massive long campaign. Huge cash spend on expensive leaflets delivered fortnightly at one point by Royal Mail, few local activists but several Road Trip 2015 coachloads brought in to generate some "here are my army" photos.Diixie said:Interestingly CCHQ are sending us to places to win rather than to defend. Are they confident of success in marginals? Or given up? Certainly,following local Labour on twitter they are dead quiet and bumping into them at council meetings they have lost their arrogance. Is this a sign of victory or defeat? Would love your views. For me Jack W's view is where I am too!
Then the short campaign started. No more leaflets (just an election address across the constituency plus a few targeted drops in winnable wards only), no more road trip armies, and a few reports from normals that they saw him out leafleting and he wouldn't atop and talk saying he didn't have time. On Saturday as we had our local volunteer force out in droves I drove past the Tories gathering at lunchtime - a dozen of them sent out to knock on a very limited number of doors in pairs.
Its like the short campaign started and his campaign stopped.
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Sorry ! I made a small mistake with my colours in the spreadsheet.surbiton said:
I am not saying C will do worse than UNS. My calculations are based on UNS. I took 3 away for UKIP [ whose 2010 figures are so low that UNS does not give them any seats ] and 6 to LD.Sean_F said:
Why do you think the Conservatives will do worse than UNS?surbiton said:
E & W 2010: C 38.76%, L 28.52%Sean_F said:
The lead in England and Wales was 10%. The swing in Yougov 4%.surbiton said:felix said:CarlottaVance said:The YouGov (34 - 33 Con/Lab) has a pretty good Scottish subsample for Lab - 30 vs SNP's 42
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/v560chbmi3/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030515.pdf
In 2010, the Tories had a lead of 11.7%. Therefore, swing = 4.8% - big !
England only: C 39.5%, L 28.07%
I stand corrected. So swing is 4.1%
Based on Yougov , England & Wales weighted sample of 1629, applying UNS with exact swings [ and my own adjustments ]:
C 267 - 3 - 6 = 258
L 279 - 2 + 6 = 283
LD 16 + 8 = 24
PC 3 + 1 = 4
GRN 1 = 1
UKIP 0 + 3 = 3
RES + 1
SPK 1 = 1
add
SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final GB tally: based on Yougov E&W weighted sample of 1629
C 260, L 290, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, UKIP 3, SPK 1, SNP 48, RES 1
Another result I have noted. Seats like Ealing Acton, Endfield North, Croydon Central, Harrow East are now near the tipping point.
Guess where the Labour biggies are visiting lately.
BTW, Hampstead & Kilburn should be well clear. There maybe local difficulties !
I
Peter Kellner reckons the swing in Con/Lab marginals is 1% lower than across E & W as a whole.
In Scotland, I have given Con 2 seats.
This is based on Yougov's E&W sample of 1629 only . Only one poll !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe, in other polls, swing in E&W is less than 4.1%. That would change things dramatically. This is purely a statistical exercise - albeit with my adjustments which are minor.
I repeat [ purely based on England & Wales: Yougov weighted sample of 1629 which gives:
C 36, L 34, LD 9, UKIP 13, GRN 5. ]
Initial swings results
C 273, L 279, LD 16, PC 3, GRN 1, SPK 1.
To the above, my adjustments are:
UKIP + 3, C -3. LD +8, C -6, L -2, PC + 1, L -1
This gives: C 264, L 276, LD 24, PC 4, GRN 1, SPK 1. UKIP 3
add Scotland: SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final tally: C 266, L 282, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, SPK 1. SNP 48 UKIP 3. Total 632.
This is based on one poll only.
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In Europe, internet pollster have tended to overstate insurgent parties, while phone pollsters have tended to understate them. This makes me fairly confident that UKIP will poll 12-13%.rogerh said:If latest You Gov is back to 9% for Lib Dems reasonable chance of LD getting 10% on either ICM or Ashcroft (assume they are releasing figures today).Also possibility on ICM that UKIP may be down to 4th place.
With the LibDems, there are a number of both positives and negatives:
+ very high "don't knows" among 2010 voters, similar to conservatives in 1992
+ evidence do better in named ballot polls
+ possibility of tactical voting
- LibDems need to be up weighted in most polls
- lowest certainty to vote
I don't know how these interplay, but I'd reckon they just creep into double figures: 10-11%.
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Poster watch: I have been travelling around west and south-west London quite a bit over the last week or so. The only board I have seen in Ealing Central and Acton is a yellow diamond prominently displayed on the A40 approaching Gypsy Corner from the west. However, it seems virtually every street in Richmond Park is peppered with Zac boards and quite a few in response from the LDs (hope Zac is keeping tabs on his spend this time?). Virtually nothing in Brentford Isleworth and lots of Labour boards around Southall. Overall, I find it rather strange that it's the two safe seats (there's no way Zac will lose Richmond) which appear to be more active than the two marginals. Having said that I live in Ealing Acton, and every day the letter box is crammed with election communications (the great majority being from Rupa Huq, the Labour candidate).0
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worth reading what LabourList said about postal votes and the comments. All illegal to write of course.Sean_F said:
Why do you think the Conservatives will do worse than UNS?surbiton said:
E & W 2010: C 38.76%, L 28.52%Sean_F said:
The lead in England and Wales was 10%. The swing in Yougov 4%.surbiton said:
The crucial sub-sample [ 1629 ] is just for England and Wales.felix said:
With regard to London you also have to wonder how many of the 68% Labour voters are even on the register. It may limit the number of Labour gains although no doubt incumbency will ensure the LDs are 'winning everywhere'CarlottaVance said:The YouGov (34 - 33 Con/Lab) has a pretty good Scottish subsample for Lab - 30 vs SNP's 42
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/v560chbmi3/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030515.pdf
Labour London has the lowest certainty to vote (68) while SNP Scotland has the highest (80), and how people will vote also follows same pattern - 79% of Londoners have definitely decided how to vote, while 90% of Scots (and 91% in RoS) know who they will vote for.
C 36, L 34. If this is anywhere near as correct, a huge number of Tories will go.
In 2010, the Tories had a lead of 11.7%. Therefore, swing = 4.8% - big !
England only: C 39.5%, L 28.07%
I stand corrected. So swing is 4.1%
Based on Yougov , England & Wales weighted sample of 1629, applying UNS with exact swings [ and my own adjustments ]:
C 267 - 3 - 6 = 258
L 279 - 2 + 6 = 283
LD 16 + 8 = 24
PC 3 + 1 = 4
GRN 1 = 1
UKIP 0 + 3 = 3
RES + 1
SPK 1 = 1
add
SNP 48, L 6, LD 3, C 2
Final GB tally: based on Yougov E&W weighted sample of 1629
C 260, L 290, LD 27, PC 4, GRN 1, UKIP 3, SPK 1, SNP 48, RES 1
Another result I have noted. Seats like Ealing Acton, Endfield North, Croydon Central, Harrow East are now near the tipping point.
Guess where the Labour biggies are visiting lately.
BTW, Hampstead & Kilburn should be well clear. There maybe local difficulties !
I
Peter Kellner reckons the swing in Con/Lab marginals is 1% lower than across E & W as a whole.
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Ladbrokes latest forecast based on odds in 650 seats:
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/595127665117499392/photo/1
Con: 278
Lab: 265
SNP: 53
LibD: 270 -
True MorrisMorris_Dancer said:Mr. City, and boundaries
But York Outer is really just the old Ryedale safe Conservative seat.
York itself used to be a lot closer .
In 87 the Conservatives held York just.
York still surprises me that labour are 50 to 1 on.0 -
Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!0
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Life in a safe FPTP seat...
1 Tory leaflet
1 Labour leaflet
1 UKIP leaflet
0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
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With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
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Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .0
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Has Delia cooked the Conservative goose in Norwich North ?roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
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It's the price you pay for having a non-proportional voting system. People will simply find ways to try and make their vote count.GeoffM said:
This is a disgrace and should be illegal. It's certainly not ethical. Why should I have my local MP elected by random people who have never even visited my constituency?Moses_ said:Meanwhile you may end up with the candidate in your area that no one voted for....
"Thousands of disillusioned voters across the country are pledging to trade their votes with other people using swapping websites. Joe Tidy reports."
http://news.sky.com/video/1477184/thousands-planning-to-vote-swap0 -
Generally I am down on LD prospects, but I think that UKIP and LD percentages are not too far apart, with UKIP supporters like my Dad returning to the Blues and LDs looking to gain some tactical votes from both red and blue depending on the seat. Ladbrokes matchbet of LD to outpoll UKIP at 3.5 seams a reasonable prospect. While betting markets tend to ramp the blues, they ramp the purple peril even more.rcs1000 said:
In Europe, internet pollster have tended to overstate insurgent parties, while phone pollsters have tended to understate them. This makes me fairly confident that UKIP will poll 12-13%.rogerh said:If latest You Gov is back to 9% for Lib Dems reasonable chance of LD getting 10% on either ICM or Ashcroft (assume they are releasing figures today).Also possibility on ICM that UKIP may be down to 4th place.
With the LibDems, there are a number of both positives and negatives:
+ very high "don't knows" among 2010 voters, similar to conservatives in 1992
+ evidence do better in named ballot polls
+ possibility of tactical voting
- LibDems need to be up weighted in most polls
- lowest certainty to vote
I don't know how these interplay, but I'd reckon they just creep into double figures: 10-11%.
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Why should Labour expend resources door-knocking in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, , Kingston ? Wimbledon, yes !Dixie said:surbiton said:
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.Dixie said:Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
Labour did door-knocking in Kingston, in the locals and Euro. You will find Labour will be in the high teens in Kingston & Surbiton.0 -
A really important result - Stockton South.RochdalePioneers said:
The view in Stockton South is that James Wharton had a massive long campaign. Huge cash spend on expensive leaflets delivered fortnightly at one point by Royal Mail, few local activists but several Road Trip 2015 coachloads brought in to generate some "here are my army" photos.Diixie said:Interestingly CCHQ are sending us to places to win rather than to defend. Are they confident of success in marginals? Or given up? Certainly,following local Labour on twitter they are dead quiet and bumping into them at council meetings they have lost their arrogance. Is this a sign of victory or defeat? Would love your views. For me Jack W's view is where I am too!
Then the short campaign started. No more leaflets (just an election address across the constituency plus a few targeted drops in winnable wards only), no more road trip armies, and a few reports from normals that they saw him out leafleting and he wouldn't atop and talk saying he didn't have time. On Saturday as we had our local volunteer force out in droves I drove past the Tories gathering at lunchtime - a dozen of them sent out to knock on a very limited number of doors in pairs.
Its like the short campaign started and his campaign stopped.
It's the kind of MP (Wharton) we want to remove from the HoC. He's a little oink who counts war criminals as part of his circle of friends. Can't wait for May 8th to see the likes of this scum booted out!0 -
Wow. That makes my tally look positively excellent in comparison, in what is also a very safe seat.Jonathan said:Life in a safe FPTP seat...
1 Tory leaflet
1 Labour leaflet
1 UKIP leaflet
0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
4 LD
1 Labour
2 UKIP
1 Tory
0 door knockers
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Its 50/50 that Paul O'Grady will leave the UK forever, We just need a few more Conservative votes to ensure it comes to pass.
Celebrity endorsements change nothing.0 -
Yorkcity said:
You really are a trojan horse, for any Scottish left wing supporters
Yeah, come on Scottish left wing supporters, vote for anti austerity, anti Trident, anti foreign wars, pro immigration Labour.
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To be honest I think activist motivation is much the same - "Stop the Tories" was a strong factor for activists in 2010, and "Don't let the Tories carry on" is at about the same level of intensity, neither more nor less. A factor worth considering for constituency punters, though, is the availability of nearby help for either side. Tories in Brighton and Hove, for instance, must be getting help from the Tory redoubts in surrounding rural seats; I'm getting a great deal of help from Labour's Nottingham fortress, in total contrast to 2010, when the seat was mistakenly seen as inevitably doomed.OldKingCole said:
Surely Labour’s GOTV operation, in England anyway, will be more motivated than in 2010. I think we forget what a mess Labour appeared to be in then.surbiton said:
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.Dixie said:Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
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@FraserNelson: Listening to Miliband on R4, it's clear: Labour would govern vote-by-vote with the SNP, giving Salmond a veto on every Bill it wants passed.0
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@IanDunt: This is where Miliband has found himself: being asked to rule out conversations with SNP MPs & coming perilously close to doing so.
@alstewitn: #GE2015 @Ed_Miliband 'We're not going to have an arrangement with @theSNP'.
@FraserNelson: Remember: SNP will vote for Labour Queens' Speech regardless. Salmond wants Miliband in No10 in the same way that a spider wants a fly.0 -
Scott_P: Are you going to be copying and pasting each of the Labour gains as they come in on election night?0
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But but but... There will be no dealsScott_P said:@FraserNelson: Listening to Miliband on R4, it's clear: Labour would govern vote-by-vote with the SNP, giving Salmond a veto on every Bill it wants passed.
Pigs fly etc.0 -
@alstewitn: 'No arrangement', 'no conversation': @Ed_Miliband runs the risk of redefining 'boxed-in'. https://t.co/dkYpQLZ1e80
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Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.0 -
I note several PBers aren't seeing too many knockers ....
Whereas JackW .... well enough said .... 0 -
Milliband floundering. .on the Today. Seems offended to be challenged. Or contradicted. Genuinely frightening he is likely to be pm.0
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R4 Ed pinned down on 'deal with SNP' NO. Conversations with SNP 'I have no plans to...'
Did you overspend? No.
Ed getting shouty and sloganeering......now having OECD quoted at him - is OECD wrong, is OBR wrong...are they all wrong?
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Inspired!Scott_P said:
@theJeremyVine: Yesterday’s stone moment cartooned by @MortenMorland http://t.co/XomlQc9qiY
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I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
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Miliband doing really well against Welsh Tory Humphreys. Miliband is quietly confident and not at all rattled. Idea of a 'balanced plan' gaining traction.0
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On topic, Yes.0
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@afneil: Listening to Ed Miliband @BBCr4today it's clear he thinks he can put together a Queen's Speech which SNP will back, without talking to SNP0
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And yet you are on here night after night posting Labour propaganda..IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.0 -
If we go the vote by vote route - which we should do - the leader of the Tories will be able to pass the bill either through abstention or support.
We would just need a deal with them and the law goes through.0 -
Rose by name, tinted spectacles by nature.....roserees64 said:Miliband doing really well against Welsh Tory Humphreys. Miliband is quietly confident and not at all rattled. Idea of a 'balanced plan' gaining traction.
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Election leaflet update from Broadland
One Lib Dem leaflet weeks ago, one Tory and one Green. Nothing from the kippers or from the traitors0 -
The Tories have such a positive attitude don't they - we might win here if we can stop people reading our opponents literature!heseltine said:Voters in the area I am in are getting bombarded with leaflets..4 from the Tories in 2 days and 3 from the LibDems. When I asked one of the senior Tory campaign managers why so much bumf he told me it was to negate the LibDem bumf and to stop the average person reading the LibDems lit as they would all be so fed up at the deluge coming through their letterbox.
One of the South London LD/Tory marginals..0 -
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick nextCasino_Royale said:
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
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I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
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Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures0 -
Don't mention 'stones' to Labour supporters......its a touchy subject......SquareRoot said:
And yet you are on here night after night posting Labour propaganda..IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Let him who is without sin cast the first stone.0 -
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....
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Nonsense.murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....0 -
Is Eds Stone doing the rounds today..0
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When is a poll projection not a poll projection ? When experts meddle with it.
In 2010, Ben Page said it would be a hung parliament. His figures said so. He changed his mind because he did not want to be out on a limb.
I just looked at Yougov Politics page.
Nowcast says Lab 276, Con 272, SNP 52, LDP 24. Not a million miles from my projections based on UNS.
But Kellner, of course, does not either believe his own figures or wants to be safe-first.
So, he says: Lab 261, Con 283, SNP 50, LDP 32.
What is the basis of this projection ? Because Kellner is an expert. So, he wants to be part of the herd.
This time the LD bubble is going to burst. They are even more toxic than the Tories because of Clegg. Clegg is radio-active !0 -
There are rules about not posting tweets here?murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....0 -
Miliband getting rather ranty at the end of that......0
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They all overspend. Mortgaging the future to pay for today. Until we runa system where last years tax receipts form this years spending and taxes are apportioned annually to compensate/give back then these arguments will run and run. Profligacy is no better than Austerity, the two are indicators of a failed economy,CarlottaVance said:R4 Ed pinned down on 'deal with SNP' NO. Conversations with SNP 'I have no plans to...'
Did you overspend? No.
Ed getting shouty and sloganeering......now having OECD quoted at him - is OECD wrong, is OBR wrong...are they all wrong?0 -
Very TrueJonathan said:Life in a safe FPTP seat...
1 Tory leaflet
1 Labour leaflet
1 UKIP leaflet
0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
I had one Lib Dem door knocker reminding me that there is a local election on the same day.
He admitted that they had no chance in the GE.0 -
Amazing how confident Ed Miliband is. Considering he says DC has lost every argument, perhaps he should wonder why he doesn't appear to be winning.
Very interesting how little we've heard from Mandelson, Campbell, even Harman. People who know what it is like to lose and don't want to be associated with it?0 -
While posters complaining about other poster's posts adds immeasurably to the quality of the site.....murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....0 -
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures0 -
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.murali_s said:
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
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I think I have had leaflets from the three main parties plus UKIP, plus the regular Tory and LD newsletters, no door knockers. Almost ran into some Labour canvassers in the street (literally) and we have a Labour poster in town which seems a complete waste of money. And I had a pint with the OMRLP leader but I don't think he's going to beat Boris.Jonathan said:Life in a safe FPTP seat...
1 Tory leaflet
1 Labour leaflet
1 UKIP leaflet
0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
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very childish , but funny............ rickshaw man doing the Labour party again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIGjUPwYU940 -
And his turnip ....dyedwoolie said:
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick nextCasino_Royale said:
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
We can't have malcomg cornering the market on root vegetables and likeminded SNP politicians.
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Scott_P does some quite thoughtful posts when he escapes the twittersphere. I wish he would do so a little more often.murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....0 -
I know that posters complaining about other poster's posts complaining about other posters's posts certainly does... titterCarlottaVance said:
While posters complaining about other poster's posts adds immeasurably to the quality of the site.....murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....
0 -
Isn't that the three main parties and the Lib Dems?JohnLilburne said:
I think I have had leaflets from the three main parties plus UKIP, plus the regular Tory and LD newsletters, no door knockers. Almost ran into some Labour canvassers in the street (literally) and we have a Labour poster in town which seems a complete waste of money. And I had a pint with the OMRLP leader but I don't think he's going to beat Boris.Jonathan said:Life in a safe FPTP seat...
1 Tory leaflet
1 Labour leaflet
1 UKIP leaflet
0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse0 -
All the doors open and Joe Cocker on at full blast... fantastic..0
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MPs with worst attendance records:
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/exposed-the-25-mps-with-the-worst-attendance-records/0 -
Yes, Labour did door knock in Euros in Kingston...not now. I agree, reds are efficient but they have nothing at all in seats they have won in the last 20 years. I am grateful that the dim-wit, scheming, evil f*ckers don't darken my door but I am surprised. Let's hope I never see them again.surbiton said:
Why should Labour expend resources door-knocking in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, , Kingston ? Wimbledon, yes !Dixie said:surbiton said:
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.Dixie said:Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
Labour did door-knocking in Kingston, in the locals and Euro. You will find Labour will be in the high teens in Kingston & Surbiton.
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Is that so unusual? Newcastle vs Sunderland is Northumberland vs Durham after all.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
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Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Andrew Neil finally has cottoned on. What took him so long ?Scott_P said:@afneil: Listening to Ed Miliband @BBCr4today it's clear he thinks he can put together a Queen's Speech which SNP will back, without talking to SNP
The secret is, Andrew, do not have anything the SNP disagrees with vehemently. 9/10 points, the SNP and Labour agrees anyway.0 -
LDs get incumbency boost...and no one else?
If the MP has a boost, they should have been working on behalf of their constituents regardless of party colour. The notion that only one party gets more of a boost for holding a seat for a parliament looks like moonshine.0 -
You two are spamming a lot more than Scott_P; he at least adds something to the discussion instead of just complaining.murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....0 -
Fair comment, I was just riffing on the paucity of football locally ;-)JohnLilburne said:
Is that so unusual? Newcastle vs Sunderland is Northumberland vs Durham after all.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures0 -
Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.0
-
It is NOT about getting someone banned - it's about common sense!YBarddCwsc said:
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.murali_s said:
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
My last word as I don't want to divert the excellent thread written by Mike.0 -
Now with Delia's endorsement, I will be backing Norwich. I need to buy a book or two. She is great !foxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Libs have done very well in all by-elections since 2010. Where they are targeting a seat, they will do well. They think they will win Hornsey Green for example. They will perish in seats where they started 3rdrcs1000 said:
In Europe, internet pollster have tended to overstate insurgent parties, while phone pollsters have tended to understate them. This makes me fairly confident that UKIP will poll 12-13%.rogerh said:If latest You Gov is back to 9% for Lib Dems reasonable chance of LD getting 10% on either ICM or Ashcroft (assume they are releasing figures today).Also possibility on ICM that UKIP may be down to 4th place.
With the LibDems, there are a number of both positives and negatives:
+ very high "don't knows" among 2010 voters, similar to conservatives in 1992
+ evidence do better in named ballot polls
+ possibility of tactical voting
- LibDems need to be up weighted in most polls
- lowest certainty to vote
I don't know how these interplay, but I'd reckon they just creep into double figures: 10-11%.
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A good thing!dyedwoolie said:
Fair comment, I was just riffing on the paucity of football locally ;-)JohnLilburne said:
Is that so unusual? Newcastle vs Sunderland is Northumberland vs Durham after all.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
0 -
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Wow, I live in a super safe seat and I've had:Yorkcity said:
Very TrueJonathan said:Life in a safe FPTP seat...
1 Tory leaflet
1 Labour leaflet
1 UKIP leaflet
0 LD leaflets (despite bring s 2010 target and 2nd place)
0 door knockers
democracy my arse
I had one Lib Dem door knocker reminding me that there is a local election on the same day.
He admitted that they had no chance in the GE.
5 Con
2 Lab
1 Lib
1 Grn
3 UKIP
2 Ind
3 Residents Grp.
(some of these may have been for the similarly super-safe council seat elections.)0 -
The "old farm derby" ??dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Ah .... you mean the Ipswich "Tractors Boys" ....
0 -
Quite an ironic comment, given the other comments down threadOllyT said:Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
0 -
We will be there big time in 2018 and 2020.Dixie said:
Yes, Labour did door knock in Euros in Kingston...not now. I agree, reds are efficient but they have nothing at all in seats they have won in the last 20 years. I am grateful that the dim-wit, scheming, evil f*ckers don't darken my door but I am surprised. Let's hope I never see them again.surbiton said:
Why should Labour expend resources door-knocking in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, , Kingston ? Wimbledon, yes !Dixie said:surbiton said:
Labour's GOTV in 2010 probably saved 20 seats. Just check out the projections at eve of poll.Dixie said:Everyone talks up Labour's ground war but don't forget it was in position in 2010. It is not an extra weapon, it is not new. So, their GOTV will not be any better.
Yes the Red's GOTV in 2010 was excellent. My point is that it can't get any better. Certainly in SW London (anecdote I accept) they have no-one in Carshalton & Wallington, Sutton & CHeam, Wimbledon, Kingston. No-one at all door knocking. They have given up in Battersea, are less on the ground in Tooting. Croydon they are working hard but their numbers are diminishing. They will only hot Tories as hard as last time, no better.
Labour did door-knocking in Kingston, in the locals and Euro. You will find Labour will be in the high teens in Kingston & Surbiton.0 -
Well at least Humphrey stopped short again off calling him to ugly to be PM.CarlottaVance said:Miliband getting rather ranty at the end of that......
Maybe that is why the BBC use him as a predominately a radio presenter due to his looks and age.
0 -
Likely the stand in when he is forced to take a loo breakfoxinsoxuk said:
Scott_P does some quite thoughtful posts when he escapes the twittersphere. I wish he would do so a little more often.murali_s said:
But we can't have one rule for Scott_P and one rule for everyone else.kle4 said:
Can I ask they not do that. It would only 'do things in' if everyone was at it.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
Have a pleasant morning everyone.
Mods really need to think about it - it's ruining the site....0 -
Would the SNP have done it had they known Margaret Thatcher would hold power for so long. On the other hand without Thatcher they wouldn't have been able to demonise the Tories in Scotland for the last 25 years.surbiton said:
1979. The traitors have form.DecrepitJohnL said:
SNP voting with Conservatives to bring down a Labour government? Has that ever happened before?Moses_ said:0 -
Stephen Fry and Hugh Laurie are also fans. Perhaps they put something in your tea when you go to acting school.dyedwoolie said:
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick nextCasino_Royale said:
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
0 -
Indeed old fellow, the old farm it is called by the wags hereaboutsJackW said:
The "old farm derby" ??dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Ah .... you mean the Ipswich "Tractors Boys" ....0 -
Sky reporting Cameron down here in East Sussex. Lewes and Eastbourne must be on his hit list shurely B-)0
-
But we don't all do they same thing. If we all posted left-wing nonsense like you it would be a pretty poor site. People all doing different stuff - and posting different views - adds to the diversity of PB.murali_s said:
It is NOT about getting someone banned - it's about common sense!YBarddCwsc said:
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.murali_s said:
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
In any case, his posts all have ScottP at the top and are usually quite short, so easy to avoid.0 -
Please, you two, it's Middlesbrough!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
The problem for the SNP is that having voted Mrs Thatcher into office in 1979, they need to be careful about repeating the trick, especially before the Scottish general election in May 2016. After that date, Sturgeon's gloves can come off but Labour may get a comparatively clear run until then, especially since that same Holyrood election means all parties will be nice to Scotland for a year.Scott_P said:@afneil: Listening to Ed Miliband @BBCr4today it's clear he thinks he can put together a Queen's Speech which SNP will back, without talking to SNP
0 -
You already have that facility - Skip his posts if you don't like them.OllyT said:Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
0 -
As are Sean Pertwee and Martin FreemanCasino_Royale said:
Stephen Fry and Hugh Laurie are also fans. Perhaps they put something in your tea when you go to acting school.dyedwoolie said:
They'll be wheeling out Baldrick nextCasino_Royale said:
I fail to see why, at every election campaign, the fact that Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Patrick Stewart and Richard Wilson are supporting Labour is somehow presented as "news".Jonathan said:
With her and Partridge, Labour have Norwich in the bag.roserees64 said:Delia Smith has stated that she is voting Labour in order to protect the NHS, always knew she had good taste!
Edit - the Tories have Adam Ricketts and William Roache though0 -
Isn't that just about getting the Labour vote out ?surbiton said:
But Kellner, of course, does not either believe his own figures or wants to be safe-first.
So, he says: Lab 261, Con 283, SNP 50, LDP 32.
What is the basis of this projection ? Because Kellner is an expert. So, he wants to be part of the herd.
!
0 -
Scott is not copying and pasting “everything from twitter”.murali_s said:
It is NOT about getting someone banned - it's about common sense!YBarddCwsc said:
One of the few things I definitely dislike is posters trying to get other posters banned.murali_s said:
I honestly feel sorry for him and I am yet to be convinced he's actually human.IOS said:Murali_S
I know - Mike or mods - any chance you can have a word? Its doing the site in.
It's a lovely day outside - go and enjoy yourself with your family - you can leave the copying and pasting for a few hours - no-one is going is to miss it!
It is illiberal and ungenerous and contrary to the spirit of a blog like this.
I thought this when Tory posters wanted tim banned, and I think it now when you want Scott’s posts restricted.
Just skip over Scott’s posts if you don’t like them.
If we all acted like Scott_P and copied and pasted everything from twitter, how many people would read this blog?
You don’t do your argument any favours by exaggerating.
Nobody reads every posting on a blog. There are some posters whose views I value (on all sides of the spectrum). I read their posts. There are some posters who post complete nonsense. I skip their posts.
If we all appealed to the mods over posters we don’t like, their life would be miserable.
0 -
Chaps, it's Middlesbrough - not borough. Looks like they might pass one of the north east teams going the other way!dyedwoolie said:
Middlesborough have to be favourites, Brentford also have the hoodoo over Norwich. Ipswich are a dire football team utterly reliant on one striker, I'd like to see them go up so they can come down with under 10 pointsfoxinsoxuk said:
Who would you tip in the playoffs? I think Middlesborough myself, they have a pretty solid defence, but Norwich over Ipswich I think.dyedwoolie said:
The old farm derby. Norfolk football sucks so much our local derby is against a team from another countyfoxinsoxuk said:
Labour wasted around £200 million on the Norfolk and Norwich PFI:roserees64 said:Delia Smith has said she will be supporting Labour in order to ' save the NHS '. I always knew she had good taste .
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2009/jun/01/nhs-health
Safe in whose hands??
The real interest in East Anglia will be on this event between the blues and yellows on Saturday:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/fixtures
Edit: Leicesters derbys are all with adjacent counties too!0 -
Is there a facility to replace certain people's posts with emanations from your ARSE?JackW said:
You already have that facility - Skip his posts if you don't like them.OllyT said:Mods - is there any way you can offer a facility to look at the site without Scott P's interminable posts. They are seriously beyond the pale, nothing original, endless regurgitating. Every site has its irritating posters of all political shades but this is simply moronic, day in day out. Perhaps the intention is to get rid of non-Tory posters and it might well be working because I am seriously off to UKPR if I have to wade through 50 more sets of his drivel today.
0
