politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB ba

TheScreamingEagles said:

htps://twitter.com/SunNation/status/593516865395101699

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tonight's #Newsnight index - CON down 1, SNP up 1

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/593511112491945984/photo/1

Interesting that the seat gap has closed in their prediction, despite polls being better for Tories over the past 5 days.

Chameleon said:

Monty said:

Dair said:

Monty said:

kle4 said:

Moses_ said:

Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?

Snip.

Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.

Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.

Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).

Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.

No. Scottish Labour are at the heart of Labour. You wound them you wound us. The SNP have stolen Labour's clothes temporarily. But the SNP are nationalists and nationalists will steal whoever's clothes to seem popular.
We won't forget where our loyalties lie and we believe in the UK. You do not.
We know that any attempt at cooperation would end in disaster for us.
Therefore it will not happen.
Despite what the Nats say, it will not happen.

I completely agree that a Lab-SNP coalition would be the end for Labour, on both sides of the border. However I'm not sure that the Labour head honchos will take that into consideration. I get a feeling that they will do whatever to get themselves into power, even if it means that it may be their last time ever.

Blair would have. I don't think Ed will.

Philip_Thompson said:

So Scottish Sun wants the SNP, English Sun wants to stop the SNP.

Left hand talk to the right hand much?

Tykejohnno said:

Yep and it seems by the chart,the tories lost they seat in Scotland ;-)

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/593516514365476864

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

Monty said:

kle4 said:

Moses_ said:

Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?

My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.

(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)

Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,

I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.

Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.

Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.

Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).

Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.

Except there's a Holyrood election in 12 months time, as much as you're glossing over and ignoring that fact.

Neither LAB nor the SNP are going to concede Holyrood to the other without a fight. And the fight is not going to be pretty.

Monty said:

RepublicanTory said:

Monty said:

kle4 said:

Moses_ said:

Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?

My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.

(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)

Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,

I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.

As a Tory i dont have a gut feel for Scottish politics-but surely you can do a deal??

Is the the danger for Labour that great?

Yes, they are. See my post below.

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.

Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long

I think maybe you're missing the point.

Labour are finished in Scotland.

Finished.

Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).

Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.

How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.

Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).

So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.

And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.

Actually you can be wiped out in AMS D'Hondt.

Liberals were 17 in 1999, 17 in 2003, 16 in 2007, 5 in 2011.

AMS D'Hondt has a 5% threshold. Liberals could be wiped next election. They probably will be down to 1 (Northern Scotland List).

Labour will be reduced to 13 next election. Thats from 56 in 1999, 50 in 2003, 46 in 2007 and 37 last time.

Do you think Labour are willing and content to be reduced like that without a fight?

They're going to want to fight and fight hard. The SNP are going to want to fight and fight hard. Probably dirty on both sides. But they're supposed to be playing happy families in Westminster, while one partner in the happy family wants a divorce and to leave Westminster.

It doesn't work.

Dair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dair said:

[snip]

Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.

Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.

Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).

Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.

Except there's a Holyrood election in 12 months time, as much as you're glossing over and ignoring that fact.

Neither LAB nor the SNP are going to concede Holyrood to the other without a fight. And the fight is not going to be pretty.

Labour will win 13 seats in 2016 Holyrood (down from 37). That's how AMS D'Hondt works for a hated party on the slide. They lose FAST. Just ask the Lib Dems. The infighting amongst Labour hacks to get the List slots in 2016 will make anything you have ever seen in UK politics look polite.

Razedabode said:

Most interesting election in years, surely.....what happens after next Thursday is anyone's guess

Monty said:

Philip_Thompson said:

So Scottish Sun wants the SNP, English Sun wants to stop the SNP.

Left hand talk to the right hand much?

Murdoch backs who he thinks will win.
He has no principles beyond that.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tonight's #Newsnight index - CON down 1, SNP up 1

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/593511112491945984/photo/1

Interesting that the seat gap has closed in their prediction, despite polls being better for Tories over the past 5 days.

Plato said:

Is this online or phone?

MikeL said:

Garethofthevale said:

From previous thread

I've also worked out new regional allocations based on a 600 seat parliament (as planned unless the boundary review rules are changed or it is voted down)

East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58)
E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46)
London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73)
North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29)
North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75)
South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84)
South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55)
W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54)
Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40)
N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)

Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles

Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.

Very interesting data on previous thread re individual constituency data.

We know East London is the fastest growing part of the UK. So East Ham and West Ham should be right at the top of the list - indeed their electorates should have grown most since 2010.

The fact they aren't there shows Individual Voter Registration has pushed people off the list.

It won't matter, of course, in East Ham and West Ham but if it's happened nationwide then it can only hurt Lab and help Con.

However the figures will have risen with the late rush to register - we really do need to see final numbers and compare to 2010.

Garethofthevale said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good

Utter nonsense.

Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.

The problem is getting the timing right. You need the oil price to recover but you also need to avoid it coinciding with the next economic downturn. You also need the UK government to agree. If you want to have one in 2017 say, I think the UK government could legitimately say no. The SNP will also need to be seen to be using the Smith Commission powers effectively

Monty said:

Dair said:

Monty said:

kle4 said:

Moses_ said:

Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?

My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.

(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)

Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,

I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.

Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.

Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.

Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).

Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.

No. Scottish Labour are at the heart of Labour. You wound them you wound us. The SNP have stolen Labour's clothes temporarily. But the SNP are nationalists and nationalists will steal whoever's clothes to seem popular.
We won't forget where our loyalties lie and we believe in the UK. You do not.
We know that any attempt at cooperation would end in disaster for us.
Therefore it will not happen.
Despite what the Nats say, it will not happen.

Garethofthevale said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good

Utter nonsense.

Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.

The problem is getting the timing right. You need the oil price to recover but you also need to avoid it coinciding with the next economic downturn. You also need the UK government to agree. If you want to have one in 2017 say, I think the UK government could legitimately say no. The SNP will also need to be seen to be using the Smith Commission powers effectively

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tomorrow should see at least three polls.

I think I may have just let out a bit of wee.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tomorrow should see at least three polls.

I think I may have just let out a bit of wee.

And one of them is a corker

Garethofthevale said:

Dair said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good

Utter nonsense.

Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.

The problem is getting the timing right. You need the oil price to recover but you also need to avoid it coinciding with the next economic downturn. You also need the UK government to agree. If you want to have one in 2017 say, I think the UK government could legitimately say no. The SNP will also need to be seen to be using the Smith Commission powers effectively

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tomorrow should see at least three polls.

I think I may have just let out a bit of wee.

And one of them is a corker

Aw, are we not getting MORI tonight?

Philip_Thompson said:

So Scottish Sun wants the SNP, English Sun wants to stop the SNP.

Left hand talk to the right hand much?

chestnut said:

Comres - Lab beating the SNP, and the Tories close behind.

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

The English Sun's front page makes me want to throw up a bit tbh. Why do the Scots get the good one

There's a tea towel. You can get it in Scottish tourist traps, about all the inventions Scotland made and how they stop an Englishman committing suicide (can't remember all the lines). But the gist of it, is pretty much this comparison. Scotland gets all the good stuff because, well, we have to put up with England.

Dair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

So Scottish Sun wants the SNP, English Sun wants to stop the SNP.

Left hand talk to the right hand much?

The Scottish Sun and The Sun have had different editorial lines for at l;east 15 years. Pretty much all of Scotland know this. Are England really that ill-informed?

chestnut said:

UKIP winning Wales

surbiton said:

Dair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/593516514365476864

It's the Sun wot won it.

Actually Labour could use this in England when the The Sun inevitably chooses Conservative just before Election day.

The hypocrisy of the The Sun.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/593520351331528704

chestnut said:

Comres - Lab beating the SNP, and the Tories close behind.