politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB ba
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole
One of the great things about tonight’s ComRes/ITV marginals poll is that it gave us data that we could compare with national polling to see different patterns.
Comments
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Interesting take on the Winning Here bar chart
@CCHQPress: We need just 23 seats to win a majority - Miliband can only become PM by doing a deal with the SNP #VoteConservative http://t.co/Tc05nfAUKN0 -
Second!0
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38% of Libs...that`s a lot and there`s more to squeeze from the Greens!0
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Too small a constituency. I was thinking about numbers.Pulpstar said:
What about Angus MacNeil ?Dair said:
I still want a market for largest majority. Hosie would be a shoe in while the bookie would probably be focused on a Tory or Labour safe seat.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
You may be right.RobD said:
Only downhill from hereEh_ehm_a_eh said:From thread earlier today.
SNP 59 seats, get it sorted Nicola.
Oh you already have.
I saw some canvas returns for Dundee East, i felt so sorry for the unionist candidates i considered voting for one of them.
It was more like Moscow East in the USSR heyday0 -
Sounds about right. There may be some shiny, non-functioning fancy equipment too.another_richard said:Re Trident
I suspect the UK military will soon consist of:
Trident
Ceremonial soldiers for the tourists
And f'ck all in between
Whereas its the bit in between which is the important part.
SeanTGood point (tangentially) Clegg is quite likely to lose his seat, and even if scrapes through, he might not be leader. Will the next Lib Dem leader feel obliged to adhere to Clegg's pledges (no deal with DUP, SNP etc)? I doubt it. Why would they?
So all these Clegg remarks are quite probably worthless.
If anything it's probably a bit irritating for those in his party who don't need to rely on Tory tactical votes to the same degree Clegg does, who might feel they will catch flak for it in their areas as Clegg tries to save his own seat.
And while I do hope he retains it - if nothing else, I think the LD attempt to recover will be much more interesting if they can have the electorate decapitate their leadership for them than if he is still in the parliamentary party - any attempt of his to retain the leadership is surely futile, so he's not helping the party much if his pro-Tory interpreted remarks have an impact elsewhere.
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SPIN has UKIP only 3 -4 now.0
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Will the longstanding theory of the Red Liberals winning it for Ed M truly come to pass?0
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So, Tories are getting 6% more 2010 LD in Tory marginals while Labour gets 12% more 2010 LD in Tory marginals.0
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Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.0 -
Scottish election 2011 Dundee East SNP majority 41.5%Dair said:
Too small a constituency. I was thinking about numbers.Pulpstar said:
What about Angus MacNeil ?Dair said:
I still want a market for largest majority. Hosie would be a shoe in while the bookie would probably be focused on a Tory or Labour safe seat.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
You may be right.RobD said:
Only downhill from hereEh_ehm_a_eh said:From thread earlier today.
SNP 59 seats, get it sorted Nicola.
Oh you already have.
I saw some canvas returns for Dundee East, i felt so sorry for the unionist candidates i considered voting for one of them.
It was more like Moscow East in the USSR heyday
Western Isles SNP majority 36.7%
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% terms though, is it him or Hosie ?Dair said:
Too small a constituency. I was thinking about numbers.Pulpstar said:
What about Angus MacNeil ?Dair said:
I still want a market for largest majority. Hosie would be a shoe in while the bookie would probably be focused on a Tory or Labour safe seat.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
You may be right.RobD said:
Only downhill from hereEh_ehm_a_eh said:From thread earlier today.
SNP 59 seats, get it sorted Nicola.
Oh you already have.
I saw some canvas returns for Dundee East, i felt so sorry for the unionist candidates i considered voting for one of them.
It was more like Moscow East in the USSR heyday
What % do you think Hosie could get ? 80 ?0 -
SPIN Con +190
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With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long0 -
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.0 -
You forget enormous Aircraft Carriers for Blue Water Power Projection with some 20 year old unarmed Westland helicopters on the,another_richard said:Re Trident
I suspect the UK military will soon consist of:
Trident
Ceremonial soldiers for the tourists
And f'ck all in between
Whereas its the bit in between which is the important part.0 -
People said the same thing during the IndyRef campaign. And, granted, they were right, although that seems small comfort now.Monty said:
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
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Without Trident we will have to re-introduce the draft.Dair said:
You forget enormous Aircraft Carriers for Blue Water Power Projection with some 20 year old unarmed Westland helicopters on the,another_richard said:Re Trident
I suspect the UK military will soon consist of:
Trident
Ceremonial soldiers for the tourists
And f'ck all in between
Whereas its the bit in between which is the important part.
Fancy a spell in a military camp in Sussex?0 -
Political betting at its finest;
SPIN;
"Night of the Long Knives"
How many of these high profile MPs/Candidates will NOT win their seat in the forthcoming General Election (May 7th 2015):
Nigel Farage (Thanet South),
Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam),
Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood),
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr' S.),
Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn...),
Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East),
Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch'),
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S'wark),
Esther McVey (Wirral West),
George Galloway (Bradford West)
0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) = 0
1 fails to win = 5 pts
2 fail to win = 10 pts
3 fail to win = 15 pts
4 fail to win = 20 pts
5 fail to win = 25 pts
6 fail to win = 30 pts
7 fail to win = 40 pts
8 fail to win = 60 pts
9 fail to win = 80 pts
All 10 fail to win = 100 pts
Only 1 score counts, based on the exact number who fail to win.
Min MU = 0, Max MU =100.
Current Spread:
SELL 27 - 32 BUY
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5103806/uk-general-election-specials-and-matchbets0 -
Yes. And politics is like that. Counterintuitively, the worst outcome for the Nats right now is to clean up and win every seat. They won't be able to contain their membership and MPs and will overplay their hand. A backlash will follow. Labour need to hold their nerve post election and see what another election brings.kle4 said:
People said the same thing during the IndyRef campaign. And, granted, they were right, although that seems small comfort now.Monty said:
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.0 -
I think it's still Hosie. MacNeill will always be Three In A Bed With Teenagers McNeill even if they never actually got to the bed.Pulpstar said:
% terms though, is it him or Hosie ?Dair said:
Too small a constituency. I was thinking about numbers.Pulpstar said:
What about Angus MacNeil ?Dair said:
I still want a market for largest majority. Hosie would be a shoe in while the bookie would probably be focused on a Tory or Labour safe seat.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
You may be right.RobD said:
Only downhill from hereEh_ehm_a_eh said:From thread earlier today.
SNP 59 seats, get it sorted Nicola.
Oh you already have.
I saw some canvas returns for Dundee East, i felt so sorry for the unionist candidates i considered voting for one of them.
It was more like Moscow East in the USSR heyday
What % do you think Hosie could get ? 80 ?
Dunno about points, I'm thinking Hosie could be a 28k majority.0 -
There will.kle4 said:
Sounds about right. There may be some shiny, non-functioning fancy equipment too.another_richard said:Re Trident
I suspect the UK military will soon consist of:
Trident
Ceremonial soldiers for the tourists
And f'ck all in between
Whereas its the bit in between which is the important part.
And plenty of MoD bureaucrats.
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I make it:Pong said:Political betting at its finest;
SPIN;
"Night of the Long Knives"
How many of these high profile MPs/Candidates will NOT win their seat in the forthcoming General Election (May 7th 2015):
Nigel Farage (Thanet South),
Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam),
Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood),
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr' S.),
Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn...),
Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East),
Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch'),
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S'wark),
Esther McVey (Wirral West),
George Galloway (Bradford West)
0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) = 0
1 fails to win = 5 pts
2 fail to win = 10 pts
3 fail to win = 15 pts
4 fail to win = 20 pts
5 fail to win = 25 pts
6 fail to win = 30 pts
7 fail to win = 40 pts
8 fail to win = 60 pts
9 fail to win = 80 pts
All 10 fail to win = 100 pts
Only 1 score counts, based on the exact number who fail to win.
Min MU = 0, Max MU =100.
Current Spread:
SELL 27 - 32 BUY
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5103806/uk-general-election-specials-and-matchbets
Nigel Farage (Thanet South), 50%
Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam), 60%
Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood), 0%
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr' S.), 100%
Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn...), 100%
Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East), 90%
Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch'), 100%
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S'wark), 40%
Esther McVey (Wirral West), 70%
George Galloway (Bradford West) 0%0 -
OT:
Ashcroft's polls at constituency level show a rough ratio of 2:1 LD switchers to be the breaking point for at which Labour take the seat, and the Tories lose it. Below 2:1 the Tories tend to hold.
Tonight's Comres marginals poll shows a real aversion among undecided LD/Kippers to any form of Lab/SNP arrangement.
It's going to decide the election.0 -
Makes sense. Ed M will surely take up that time limited offer rather than any alternative, that is him not being in No.10. If he can figure out a way to improve his own position in that time he'll deserve to be rewarded, as I cannot picture how he could.SeanT said:
For that reason, as I said, any Lab-SNP alliance will be time-limited, up to Holyrood 2016. Then it falls.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
Without that push for a second IndyRef, I could easily see the parties lasting a lot longer a lot easier than people suspect.
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The bookies are still 1-100 on Dundee East. That's got to be the safest 1-100 bet ever.Dair said:
I think it's still Hosie. MacNeill will always be Three In A Bed With Teenagers McNeill even if they never actually got to the bed.Pulpstar said:
% terms though, is it him or Hosie ?Dair said:
Too small a constituency. I was thinking about numbers.Pulpstar said:
What about Angus MacNeil ?Dair said:
I still want a market for largest majority. Hosie would be a shoe in while the bookie would probably be focused on a Tory or Labour safe seat.Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
You may be right.RobD said:
Only downhill from hereEh_ehm_a_eh said:From thread earlier today.
SNP 59 seats, get it sorted Nicola.
Oh you already have.
I saw some canvas returns for Dundee East, i felt so sorry for the unionist candidates i considered voting for one of them.
It was more like Moscow East in the USSR heyday
What % do you think Hosie could get ? 80 ?
Dunno about points, I'm thinking Hosie could be a 28k majority.0 -
I'm not sure they'll even make it to Holyrood 2016, the campaigning for Holyrood 2016 begins effectively once the dust settles on the General Election and come the New Year it will well and truly dominate the media (especially if the SNP are pledging a referendum).SeanT said:
I agree with you, Sturgeon will have to include it in the next manifesto (tho I think your referendum will be lost, if you get the chance). At that point - as the SNP commits, again, to breaking up Britain, ANY Labour-SNP alliance becomes utterly untenable. How can SNP MPs vote on anything to do with the English in London? How can Miliband morally and politically rely on their support to stay in power?Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
He can't. Unless he really wants Labour to be destroyed, forever, in the ensuing election.
For that reason, as I said, any Lab-SNP alliance will be time-limited, up to Holyrood 2016. Then it falls.0 -
Someone run the UK Election using inputs a billion times. I reckon Dundee East wouldn't fall once.0
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Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?0
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I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.0 -
The polls also say that the voters are bored sick of the SNP scaremongering and want to talk about something else.chestnut said:OT:
Ashcroft's polls at constituency level show a rough ratio of 2:1 LD switchers to be the breaking point for at which Labour take the seat, and the Tories lose it. Below 2:1 the Tories tend to hold.
Tonight's Comres marginals poll shows a real aversion among undecided LD/Kippers to any form of Lab/SNP arrangement.
It's going to decide the election.0 -
Yes, I understand what you are saying.SeanT said:
I agree with you, Sturgeon will have to include it in the next manifesto (tho I think your referendum will be lost, if you get the chance). At that point - as the SNP commits, again, to breaking up Britain, ANY Labour-SNP alliance becomes utterly untenable. How can SNP MPs vote on anything to do with the English in London? How can Miliband morally and politically rely on their support to stay in power?Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
He can't. Unless he really wants Labour to be destroyed, forever, in the ensuing election.
For that reason, as I said, any Lab-SNP alliance will be time-limited, up to Holyrood 2016. Then it falls.
But. Why would the SNP care.
And I think the next referendum is already decided. The nation is charmed by Nicola. There is no reason to think she cannot maintain that until 2017/8.0 -
The Telegraph @Telegraph 8m8 minutes ago
Take more migrants or they will 'come through the window' says EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11572351/Take-more-migrants-or-they-will-come-through-the-window-says-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html …0 -
Until the wheel turns. This is the high watermark for the SNP. Enjoy it while you can.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.0 -
Many of the 2010 LDs in the Con/Lab seats were Cleggasm voters; people who'd not voted LD before and hadn't been prompted by local campaigning. It's not surprising that these floating voters have now gone elsewhere. By contrast, the other seats include all the LD-hold ones and most of those where the LDs are close. It's highly likely that there'll be a greater proportion of solid supporters there, even allowing for the higher absolute level to start with.0
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Is he going to introduce an EU migrant quota?MikeK said:The Telegraph @Telegraph 8m8 minutes ago
Take more migrants or they will 'come through the window' says EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11572351/Take-more-migrants-or-they-will-come-through-the-window-says-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html …0 -
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,0 -
Are we being told that, on the one hand, the British electorate are so stupid that they do not know if Nigel Farage is a candidate in their constituency, but on the other hand, they are sophisticated enough to realise that their constituency is a marginal and are voting differently?0
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Your faith in your friends will be yours.Monty said:
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.0 -
UKIP only need 23 seats to win a majority - if you forget the '3' that has to be put in front of the 23.Scott_P said:Interesting take on the Winning Here bar chart
@CCHQPress: We need just 23 seats to win a majority - Miliband can only become PM by doing a deal with the SNP #VoteConservative http://t.co/Tc05nfAUKN0 -
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From previous thread
I've also worked out new regional allocations based on a 600 seat parliament (as planned unless the boundary review rules are changed or it is voted down)
East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58)
E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46)
London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73)
North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29)
North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75)
South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84)
South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55)
W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54)
Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40)
N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)
Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles
Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.0 -
Are they a married couple now ?? .... and arguing in one of Ed's kitchens ?MikeSmithson said:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDZm9_uKtyo&app=desktop
Ed & Russell Brand.
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You may be proven right, but I really don't see how you can be so definitive when the very fact that the SNP have gone from moderately to immensely popular within a few years shows that situations can change very rapidly. I put no timeline on when if ever Labour might recover in Scotland, but just the merest hint that there is the possibility of things not working out 100% in the favour of the SNP forever (it certainly is going that way currently, I'll grant you) would do a lot to dispel all those claims of hubris. Eventual hubris at any rate.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
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I gave up after 90 seconds.0
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I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,0 -
How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.0 -
That seems obvious from what has been said.Speedy said:
Is he going to introduce an EU migrant quota?MikeK said:The Telegraph @Telegraph 8m8 minutes ago
Take more migrants or they will 'come through the window' says EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11572351/Take-more-migrants-or-they-will-come-through-the-window-says-EU-chief-Jean-Claude-Juncker.html …0 -
The #SNPOut bunch strike me as a bitter bunch.SeanT said:
Worth recalling the kind of pungently nasty, quasi-racist MP the Nats will be sending to London, if they really do a clean sweep.Monty said:
Yes. And politics is like that. Counterintuitively, the worst outcome for the Nats right now is to clean up and win every seat. They won't be able to contain their membership and MPs and will overplay their hand. A backlash will follow. Labour need to hold their nerve post election and see what another election brings.kle4 said:
People said the same thing during the IndyRef campaign. And, granted, they were right, although that seems small comfort now.Monty said:
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
Men like George Kerevan, who happily anticipates a UK economic implosion (as it aids independence) and sees non Scot Brits as "the enemy".
https://twitter.com/flashgrim/status/592693516653985793
What will this do the image of the Nats, at home, and in the wider UK? We shall see.0 -
Sadly it does not appear a great deal of SLAB voters shared the same antipathy for the SNP, nor support for the Unionist cause, as the Lab leadership. Wasn't there also polling out there that an SNP-Lab alliance was quite a popular option in Scotland? I apologise if I have that wrong.Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,0 -
I'm amazed the FTSE has held together so well with all the fear and uncertainty about the outcome of this election. I'd say it's definitely hurting the Conservartives. If the stock market slumped and we saw sterling weaken it might sharpen a significant number of voters minds about the need to deliver a decisive result next week. Maybe we might see some speculation next week sending markets tumbling, but by then its impact will be limited because of the mass of postal votes already returned.0
-
It won't be Labour benefiting from any SNP reversal (and that could be decades away).Monty said:
Until the wheel turns. This is the high watermark for the SNP. Enjoy it while you can.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
It will be the Tories and Greens.0 -
Well, it won't do it any good to moderate Scots, of which there are many. I expect the SNP vote to decline and when tactical voting kicks in it will accelerate. It took 2 or 3 elections for tactical voting to harm the Tories. The same may be true for Scotland, although I suspect it won't take as long.SeanT said:
Worth recalling the kind of pungently nasty, quasi-racist MP the Nats will be sending to London, if they really do a clean sweep.Monty said:
Yes. And politics is like that. Counterintuitively, the worst outcome for the Nats right now is to clean up and win every seat. They won't be able to contain their membership and MPs and will overplay their hand. A backlash will follow. Labour need to hold their nerve post election and see what another election brings.kle4 said:
People said the same thing during the IndyRef campaign. And, granted, they were right, although that seems small comfort now.Monty said:
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.
Men like George Kerevan, who happily anticipates a UK economic implosion (as it aids independence) and sees non Scot Brits as "the enemy".
https://twitter.com/flashgrim/status/592693516653985793
What will this do the image of the Nats, at home, and in the wider UK? We shall see.
Politics is a long game.
Crucially the referendum was lost recently. The unionist parties can avoid another one for a long time.0 -
Herdson shot first.david_herdson said:
Your faith in your friends will be yours.Monty said:
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.0 -
Tonight's #Newsnight index - CON down 1, SNP up 1
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/593511112491945984/photo/10 -
Very interesting data on previous thread re individual constituency data.Garethofthevale said:From previous thread
I've also worked out new regional allocations based on a 600 seat parliament (as planned unless the boundary review rules are changed or it is voted down)
East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58)
E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46)
London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73)
North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29)
North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75)
South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84)
South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55)
W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54)
Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40)
N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)
Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles
Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.
We know East London is the fastest growing part of the UK. So East Ham and West Ham should be right at the top of the list - indeed their electorates should have grown most since 2010.
The fact they aren't there shows Individual Voter Registration has pushed people off the list.
It won't matter, of course, in East Ham and West Ham but if it's happened nationwide then it can only hurt Lab and help Con.
However the figures will have risen with the late rush to register - we really do need to see final numbers and compare to 2010.0 -
From the last thread, I actually think Clegg is probably the biggest chance the Tories have of forming a coalition with the LDs. I doubt any other LD, is going to be as keen as Clegg - the only other option would be Alexander, who is likely to lose his seat too.0
-
A lot better for Ed than the clip made it seem.MikeSmithson said:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDZm9_uKtyo&app=desktop
Ed & Russell Brand.
I expect him to do well tomorrow night - the practice seems to be helping (he is performing better than at the beginning of the campaign)0 -
just a little song for England to lament with if EdM / SNP do become government:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-Vuj5FeK00
the hard times of old England
Come all brother tradesment that travel along
O pray, come and tell me where the trade is all gone
Long time have I travelled, and I cannot find none
Chorus
And sing all the hard times of old England
In old England, very hard times
Provisions you buy at the shop, it is true
But if you've no money, there's none there for you
So what's a poor man and his family to do?
Chorus
You must go to the shop and you'll ask for a job
They'll answer you there with a shake and a nod
And that's enough to make a man turn out and rob
Chorus
You will see the poor tradesmen a-walkin's the street
From morning to night for employment to seek
And scarce have they got any shoes to their feet
Chorus
Our soldiers and sailors have just come from war
Been fighting for Queen and country this year
Come home to be starved, better stayed where they were
Chorus
And now to conclude and to finish my song
Let us hope that these hard times will not last long
I hope soon to have occasion to alter my song, and sing
Oh, the good times of old England
In old England, jolly good times!0 -
May the 4th be with youDair said:
Herdson shot first.david_herdson said:
Your faith in your friends will be yours.Monty said:
Your over-confidence will be your downfall.Dair said:
Utter nonsense.HYUFD said:SeanT Sturgeon will only hold another referendum if sure she can win it, or post an EU exit after a 2017 EU referendum. She knows from Quebec's experience even a 51-49% No win in a second referendum effectively kills the independence argument for good
Quebec was lost because they waited too long. The SNP know this. 50% of Scotland wants another referendum inside 5 years, 65% within 10 years. It will be on the 2016 manifesto. The SNP know it is necessary and are already planning it.0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: EXC: Times / YouGov airwar tracker. Tories close the gap, only behind Labour by 2 points (yesterday was 9 pt lead) http://t.co/mZ1lDVq5G40
-
I live here.kle4 said:
You may be proven right, but I really don't see how you can be so definitive when the very fact that the SNP have gone from moderately to immensely popular within a few years shows that situations can change very rapidly. I put no timeline on when if ever Labour might recover in Scotland, but just the merest hint that there is the possibility of things not working out 100% in the favour of the SNP forever (it certainly is going that way currently, I'll grant you) would do a lot to dispel all those claims of hubris. Eventual hubris at any rate.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
I have never seen a party so toxic as Scottish Labour.
I lived through the Tory shrink in the 80s and 90s and it was NOTHING compared to this. Tory PPCs weren't barracked in the streets, they could go on TV without random passers by yelling insults at them. The 80s/90s Tories were also not known to be completely corrupt.
Labour have been building this for years. People in WCS knew the Labour party were corrupt, knew they gave jobs to their pals, flooded local authorities with placepeople, always say their own got a cushy number if they were unlucky. But the weighed votes were overwhelming - because "it's how my grandad voted".
Once you break that, you break the familial voting pattern for a corrupt and broken party, it doesn't return.
As I said. Labour are finished in Scotland.0 -
Is that meaningful as a daily metric?Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: EXC: Times / YouGov airwar tracker. Tories close the gap, only behind Labour by 2 points (yesterday was 9 pt lead) http://t.co/mZ1lDVq5G4
0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: Times / YouGov For the first time we reveal what counts as a Tory positive and Tory negative - see (small type) chart http://t.co/6cI1CUcxSa0
-
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.0 -
What's the general feeling about YouGov's & BRG? I'm generally ignoring YouGov due to how the methodology change seems to have killed the movement - which at first didn't matter but now is 2%(?) off the rest of the polls on the ELBOW. Would I bet correct in recalling that when the did the change they stated that it was supposed to measure swing in opinion? In which case the fact that they have a self-selecting politically active (therefore more decided) panel makes their polls fairly pointless. (Also, it polling 7x a week has completely changed the narrative of the election - otherwise the media would be talking about how large the Con lead would be.)
In regards to BRG I thought I saw someone mention that they may randomly select emails to poll - is this correct, if not does anyone actually know their methodology?0 -
Nah anyone remotely concerned about that sort of stuff will have decided to vote already.trublue said:I'm amazed the FTSE has held together so well with all the fear and uncertainty about the outcome of this election. I'd say it's definitely hurting the Conservartives. If the stock market slumped and we saw sterling weaken it might sharpen a significant number of voters minds about the need to deliver a decisive result next week. Maybe we might see some speculation next week sending markets tumbling, but by then its impact will be limited because of the mass of postal votes already returned.
-1 -
I found this interesting, LD and Tories Tied for "would not vote"
https://twitter.com/KevinJPringle/status/5934819174979993600 -
Look at Wales lolMikeL said:
Very interesting data on previous thread re individual constituency data.Garethofthevale said:From previous thread
I've also worked out new regional allocations based on a 600 seat parliament (as planned unless the boundary review rules are changed or it is voted down)
East of England - 56 seats (current entitlement 58)
E Midlands - 43 seats (current entitlement 46)
London - 68 seats (current entitlement 73)
North East - 25 seats (current entitlement 29)
North West - 68 seats (current entitlement 75)
South East - 83 seats (current entitlement 84)
South West - 53 seats (current entitlement 55)
W Midlands - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Yorkshire - 50 seats (current entitlement 54)
Scotland - 53 seats (current entitlement 59)
Wales - 29 seats (current entitlement 40)
N Ireland - 16 seats (current entitlement 18)
Total - 597 seats (currently 650). I think the reason it is less than 600 is that special provisions are made for Isle of Wight to have 2 seats and for Orkney/Shetland and Western Isles
Wales loses the most due to the end of its over-representation. I'm surprised Scotland isn't going up due to the referendum but I think Scotland's population is growing less slowly than other parts of the UK.
We know East London is the fastest growing part of the UK. So East Ham and West Ham should be right at the top of the list - indeed their electorates should have grown most since 2010.
The fact they aren't there shows Individual Voter Registration has pushed people off the list.
It won't matter, of course, in East Ham and West Ham but if it's happened nationwide then it can only hurt Lab and help Con.
However the figures will have risen with the late rush to register - we really do need to see final numbers and compare to 2010.0 -
Except there's a Holyrood election in 12 months time, as much as you're glossing over and ignoring that fact.Dair said:
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
Neither LAB nor the SNP are going to concede Holyrood to the other without a fight. And the fight is not going to be pretty.0 -
Actually you can be wiped out in AMS D'Hondt.Philip_Thompson said:
How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.
Liberals were 17 in 1999, 17 in 2003, 16 in 2007, 5 in 2011.
AMS D'Hondt has a 5% threshold. Liberals could be wiped next election. They probably will be down to 1 (Northern Scotland List).
Labour will be reduced to 13 next election. Thats from 56 in 1999, 50 in 2003, 46 in 2007 and 37 last time.0 -
Same voter pool, same unionised members, same left wing benefit splurging policies - what's to fall out about ?Dair said:
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.0 -
As a Tory i dont have a gut feel for Scottish politics-but surely you can do a deal??Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Is the the danger for Labour that great?0 -
No. Scottish Labour are at the heart of Labour. You wound them you wound us. The SNP have stolen Labour's clothes temporarily. But the SNP are nationalists and nationalists will steal whoever's clothes to seem popular.Dair said:
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
We won't forget where our loyalties lie and we believe in the UK. You do not.
We know that any attempt at cooperation would end in disaster for us.
Therefore it will not happen.
Despite what the Nats say, it will not happen.
0 -
From those YouGov tweets, mention of a ComRes mail poll coming at 10?0
-
RepublicanTory said:
As a Tory i dont have a gut feel for Scottish politics-but surely you can do a deal??Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Is the the danger for Labour that great?
Edit
Southern Tory0 -
There's a new ComRes at 10?0
-
They don't have to work together.Philip_Thompson said:
How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.
Just vote together. Against the Tories. Once.
And Miliband is PM.
Then once more to keep him there.
As their prisoner...
0 -
Yes.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · 1h 1 hour ago
Sifting through numbers for our latest from @ComResPolls. With a week to go, is anyone breaking away? Results at 10pm on @MailOnline0 -
Yes, they are. See my post below.RepublicanTory said:
As a Tory i dont have a gut feel for Scottish politics-but surely you can do a deal??Monty said:
I don't think the Tories on here realise how much Labour hate the SNP. We are not bedfellows. They want to end the UK. We do not. We cannot form an alliance with them for that reason. It is non-negotiable and will always overshadow any attempt at compromise. Any attempt to sidestep that reality is doomed to failure and Labour know this. Another election beckons before the year is out.kle4 said:
My suspicion is that despite the occasional comment about 'no-one having voted for this government', that would not apply to an anti-Tory majority, as that everyone voting for a party that is not the Tory party would obviously therefore automatically be fine with any arrangement that keeps the Tories out. Indeed, clearly this should have been the case last time, were it not for the traitors of the LDs, who were duty bound to do so.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
(Yes, that was a strawman statement, but most people using the 'no-one voted for this' argument will be no strangers to such tactics)
Personally lack of legitimacy is not so much of an issue for me - we have the system we have and it can deliver those sorts of outcome; if we don't want that we can change the system - but the chaos line does work on me a little. That said, its impact is blunted a bit as although it appears the permutations are even more chaotic this time around, and include a party which advocates for the break up of the UK which adds something new to the mix, the relative harmony of this coalition mitigates the fear of chaos a little too,
Is the the danger for Labour that great?0 -
Do you think Labour are willing and content to be reduced like that without a fight?Dair said:
Actually you can be wiped out in AMS D'Hondt.Philip_Thompson said:
How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.
Liberals were 17 in 1999, 17 in 2003, 16 in 2007, 5 in 2011.
AMS D'Hondt has a 5% threshold. Liberals could be wiped next election. They probably will be down to 1 (Northern Scotland List).
Labour will be reduced to 13 next election. Thats from 56 in 1999, 50 in 2003, 46 in 2007 and 37 last time.
They're going to want to fight and fight hard. The SNP are going to want to fight and fight hard. Probably dirty on both sides. But they're supposed to be playing happy families in Westminster, while one partner in the happy family wants a divorce and to leave Westminster.
It doesn't work.0 -
James Cook @BBCJamesCook ·
The Scottish Sun newspaper urges its readers to vote SNP: “a new hope for our country”. #ge2015
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@SunNation: BREAKING: The Sun backs the Conservatives: http://t.co/Mw5O5AmU5Y http://t.co/Fyphu5KMIX0
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11570745/The-price-that-Ed-Miliband-is-prepared-to-pay-to-win-the-Muslim-vote.html
The Labour leader's pledge to redefine Islamophobia as an aggravated crime will be cheered by child sex-grooming gangs in Rotherham and election-stealers in Tower Hamlets
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Laws?-may looseThe_Apocalypse said:From the last thread, I actually think Clegg is probably the biggest chance the Tories have of forming a coalition with the LDs. I doubt any other LD, is going to be as keen as Clegg - the only other option would be Alexander, who is likely to lose his seat too.
Lamb??- Not sure0 -
Sunday Post verdict, careful now.0
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Markets anticipate and discount the future. Some of the speculation on this thread is frankly surreal. Perhaps the outcome will be much more benign.Pulpstar said:
Nah anyone remotely concerned about that sort of stuff will have decided to vote already.trublue said:I'm amazed the FTSE has held together so well with all the fear and uncertainty about the outcome of this election. I'd say it's definitely hurting the Conservartives. If the stock market slumped and we saw sterling weaken it might sharpen a significant number of voters minds about the need to deliver a decisive result next week. Maybe we might see some speculation next week sending markets tumbling, but by then its impact will be limited because of the mass of postal votes already returned.
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Baby Call me Dave!TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/SunNation/status/593516865395101699
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It takes more than just confidence votes to run the country effectively. Hence why I said "amicably running the country".RodCrosby said:
They don't have to work together.Philip_Thompson said:
How does that disagree with anything I said, or mean that I'm missing the point.Dair said:
I think maybe you're missing the point.Philip_Thompson said:With Holyrood 2016 it doesn't seem plausible for Lab+SNP to play happy families for a long time. As soon as this election is over they need to turn their guns on each other - that doesn't make for happy bedfellows.
Perhaps time for a new acronym: EICIPMBNFL - Ed Is Crap Is PM But Not For Long
Labour are finished in Scotland.
Finished.
Not down, not hurt, not troubled. They are finished. They have no way back, they will never get significant support again in Scotland. They will lose seats and the Conservatives will become the second largest party at Holyrood while Labour try to defend third place to the Greens (which they will lose the election after).
Again. Labour are finished in Scotland.
Labour won't just acknowledge they're finished in Scotland, especially in Holyrood which has a form of Proportional Representation so no party is ever truly finished (even the Tories have 15 MSPs).
So once we head into the Holyrood election campaign Labour are locked into an existential battle to the death with a party that (as you're showing) wants to destroy not just the UK but Labour themselves.
And supposedly these parties are going to be working together amicably running the country? I don't think so.
Just vote together. Against the Tories. Once.
And Miliband is PM.
Then once more to keep him there.
As their prisoner...
Its not just prison, it'll be torture.0 -
Interesting that the seat gap has closed in their prediction, despite polls being better for Tories over the past 5 days.Tykejohnno said:Tonight's #Newsnight index - CON down 1, SNP up 1
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/593511112491945984/photo/10 -
Monty said:
I completely agree that a Lab-SNP coalition would be the end for Labour, on both sides of the border. However I'm not sure that the Labour head honchos will take that into consideration. I get a feeling that they will do whatever to get themselves into power, even if it means that it may be their last time ever.Dair said:
No. Scottish Labour are at the heart of Labour. You wound them you wound us. The SNP have stolen Labour's clothes temporarily. But the SNP are nationalists and nationalists will steal whoever's clothes to seem popular.Monty said:
Labour in Scotland hate the SNP.kle4 said:
Snip.Moses_ said:Slightly OT but given the lefties on here have constantly stated that this present government rule without a majority and lack legitimacy, how do they square that with the possibility a Labour minority government of which they seem quite happy at the moment.......?
Labour outside Scotland. Meh, not so much.
Without SLAB MPs the view of Labour - especially as Labour in Scotland are finished with no way back - is going to change (if it ever was actually anti-SNP).
Labour without SLAB can happily work with the SNP. At least till they see what the SNP will do to them in Westminster.
We won't forget where our loyalties lie and we believe in the UK. You do not.
We know that any attempt at cooperation would end in disaster for us.
Therefore it will not happen.
Despite what the Nats say, it will not happen.0 -
Errrr, reason 2?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
For those who missed it, I know you can't bear to miss out:
Presenting DISASTER (Danny's Inexplicably Shit Attempt at Simulating The Election Result)
Starting with predictions of Lib Dem seats
LIB DEM HOLDS (17)
Sutton & Cheam, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Carshalton & Wallington, Berwickshire, Cambridge, Southport, Thornbury & Yate, Colchester, Lewes, Caithness, Twickenham, Ceredigion, North Norfolk, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam (narrowly), Orkney & Shetland
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (12)
Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington, Burnley, Birmingham Yardley, Redcar, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cardiff Central, Bermondsey, Bristol West, Leeds North West
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (20)
Solihull, Mid Dorset, Wells, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, St Ives, Chippenham, Cheadle, North Cornwall, Taunton Deane, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Torbay, Cheltenham, Brecon & Radnorshire, North Devon, Portsmouth South, Kingston & Surbiton, Hazel Grove, Yeovil, Bath
SNP GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (8)
East Dunbartonshire, Argyll & Bute, Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh West, Gordon, Inverness, North East Fife, Ross Skye & Lochaber0
