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The sitting government get first bite at it. If they clearly can't then Cameron resigns and Liz sends for Ed.RepublicanTory said:General question-what is the precise process for forming the next Govt?
Does the sitting PM have first crack if no-one has more seats than the Conservatives?
Labour have said that they will not form a coalition with SNP and vice-versa but if the Conservatives are the larger party how does Miliband actually get to make a QS first?
Surely if the Conservatives are the largest party and put forward a QS that the Lib Dems don’t vote down, then hard to see where Labour go next.
The key may not be who lines up WITH Labour but who will line up AGAINST the Conservatives, which is not necersarily the same thing.
It could get messy, like it did last time, but remember Brown was still PM for a while. It'll be the same here.0 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 6 mins6 minutes ago
"Scotland, the NHS, Trident, welfare reform, the economy? I'm bored with all this crap guys. Can I go and meet Russell Brand instead?".
0 retweets 1 favorites
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Sir Sunil of Ilford North.....has a certain ring to it.SeanT said:
Rare moment of agreement, Rog.Roger said:Sunil.
"Tissue Price will probably have another moan, but the TNS percentages to 2 d.p.............."
Ignore the doubting Thomases Sunil.
If they spent as much time campaigning as they do trying to manipulate your poll findings the Tories might well be in an unassailable position by now.
If there were nominations for poster of the year I would nominate you. Your ELBOW has been a revelation and you are clearly a humble seeker after truth.
Sunil's ELBOW has been one of the better innovations of this election. Lucid, unbiased, and better than most of the stuff produced by the pros. His partitioning of YouGov and others has been particularly interesting.
Honorary PB Knighthood for Mister Sunil.0 -
1983 was a nice election from the statistical point of view. After 11 results the national swing was within 0.5% of the final result and stayed there for the remaining 639 results (or 622 excl. NI).0
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Roger and Sean - your cheques are in the postSeanT said:
Rare moment of agreement, Rog.Roger said:Sunil.
"Tissue Price will probably have another moan, but the TNS percentages to 2 d.p.............."
Ignore the doubting Thomases Sunil.
If they spent as much time campaigning as they do trying to manipulate your poll findings the Tories might well be in an unassailable position by now.
If there were nominations for poster of the year I would nominate you. Your ELBOW has been a revelation and you are clearly a humble seeker after truth.
Sunil's ELBOW has been one of the better innovations of this election. Lucid, unbiased, and better than most of the stuff produced by the pros. His partitioning of YouGov and others has been particularly interesting.
Honorary PB Knighthood for Mister Sunil.
BTW I'm a "Dr", albeit just a PhD!0 -
That does raise a point: how does one address Sir Sunil Dr. Prasannan? Doctor Sir? Sir Dr.? Surname or first name?0
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Especially since the "methodology change" in YG.Pulpstar said:
Sunil does also do a Non Yougov ELBOW. There has been statistically significant divergence...OblitusSumMe said:
But by doing an ELBOW and pooling all the polls you are weighting by sample size, and so favouring the online polls over phone polls.Barnesian said:
But we don't know which methodolgy is the better estimator. So the best estimate is an average.Tissue_Price said:
I think you're misleading yourself by doing that. The Internet polls are more favourable to Labour [not just these polls, that's become a clear trend] and they also have bigger samples. By adding up samples you bias your estimate towards that methodology.Barnesian said:I've added all the recent five national polls together (Populus, ICM, Ashcroft, YouGov and TNS.) from yesterday and today.
It is a sample size of 5027 with an MOE of just 1.3%. (which is probably higher because of unknown systemic effects of different methodologies but in the absence of information, the best estimate is a weighted average).
The result is:
Con 35.8%
Lab 35.8%
LD 8.6%
UKIP 14.0%
Grn 5.8%
You might find that surprising. I think that is because we have been looking at rounded figures that exaggerate the Con lead; we have been counting Con leads versus Lab leads; and there has been one Poll (Ashcroft) with a large Con lead but a very small sample.
It is easy to be misled, particularly if you are emotionally involved (confirmation bias).
The question is methodology, not sample size.
Probably a better approach is to get the weighted averages of the two methodologies and then take a simple average of the two estimates. (Perhaps this is what Sunil is doing anyway with his ELBOW in which case I won't duplicate his work) So the question is, what is the ELBOW of these recent polls classed by methodology (phone v on-line)?
But weirdly, YG gave lower Lab leads for the overwhelming majority of ELBOWs up until Early April. Then in the last two weeks, the YG tally has given Lab leads, and the Non-YouGov tally has given Tory leads...0 -
Hey, he was "just" Dr. Evil......Sunil_Prasannan said:
Roger and Sean - your cheques are in the postSeanT said:
Rare moment of agreement, Rog.Roger said:Sunil.
"Tissue Price will probably have another moan, but the TNS percentages to 2 d.p.............."
Ignore the doubting Thomases Sunil.
If they spent as much time campaigning as they do trying to manipulate your poll findings the Tories might well be in an unassailable position by now.
If there were nominations for poster of the year I would nominate you. Your ELBOW has been a revelation and you are clearly a humble seeker after truth.
Sunil's ELBOW has been one of the better innovations of this election. Lucid, unbiased, and better than most of the stuff produced by the pros. His partitioning of YouGov and others has been particularly interesting.
Honorary PB Knighthood for Mister Sunil.
BTW I'm a "Dr", albeit just a PhD!0 -
It depends on how many LD seats they gain. If it is at the low end of expectations (6 or so) I can see a decline. To stay level Labour probably has to win 30-35 seats from the Tories. It's doable, but not a gimme by any stretch. I'd say it's more likely that Labour will be ten down than ten up once all the results are in. Right now, I'd give a likely range of 245 to 265. The only thing that could change that is the vanishingly small chance that a few Scottish Labour MPs hold on against the odds.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'd be very surprised (albeit amused) if Labour had a net loss.
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Exactly so (and vice-versa of course). This point seems to have been missed by many.RepublicanTory said:The key may not be who lines up WITH Labour but who will line up AGAINST the Conservatives, which is not necersarily the same thing.
What's more, the lining-up has to be simultaneous, i.e. the various parties have all got to feel not only that they don't want Ed/Dave (as the case may be) as PM, but also that now is the best time to bring him down. They will make that calculation entirely on the basis of their own partisan interests (though no doubt dressed up with suitable cant). Almost by definition, their partisan interests are not the same as each other's.
The bottom line is that it could be very unpredictable, with some very odd effects, unless a majority can be formed either by one party, or by two parties.0 -
There'll be withdrawal symptoms come FridayPulpstar said:I have a feeling we're about to enter one of the most exciting periods for psephological nerds ever
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Remember the tories could claim a fair few seats from the lib dems too. Although that doesn't impact upon the labour value.SouthamObserver said:
It depends on how many LD seats they gain. If it is at the low end of expectations (6 or so) I can see a decline. To stay level Labour probably has to win 30-35 seats from the Tories. It's doable, but not a gimme by any stretch. I'd say it's more likely that Labour will be ten down than ten up once all the results are in. Right now, I'd give a likely range of 245 to 265. The only thing that could change that is the vanishingly small chance that a few Scottish Labour MPs hold on against the odds.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'd be very surprised (albeit amused) if Labour had a net loss.
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SPIN moves... 286-271
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An additional thought: the next Parliament for the Tories is about delivering on education and welfare reforms that are already law and about continuing to reduce spending.Richard_Nabavi said:
Exactly so (and vice-versa of course). This point seems to have been missed by many.RepublicanTory said:The key may not be who lines up WITH Labour but who will line up AGAINST the Conservatives, which is not necersarily the same thing.
What's more, the lining-up has to be simultaneous, i.e. the various parties have all got to feel not only that they don't want Ed/Dave (as the case may be) as PM, but also that now is the best time to bring him down. They will make that calculation entirely on the basis of their own partisan interests (though no doubt dressed up with suitable cant). Almost by definition, their partisan interests are not the same as each other's.
The bottom line is that it could be very unpredicatable, with some very odd effects, unless a majority can be formed either by one party, or by two parties.
How much primary legislation do they actually need to pass?
And if the answer is "not much" does definite control of Parliament matter so long as Miliband can't group enough people to bring the Tories down?0 -
Continuing with 1983...
The 11th result was Leigh: the running totals national swing after that result was 4.06% Lab to Con. The final result was a Lab to Con swing of 4.04%. The closest it came to going outside the 0.5% band was after 226 results with Stretford when the national swing was 0.496% lower than the final result.0 -
My latest UK-Elect forecast gives Pudsey as a narrow Conservative hold, but predicts a tie in the overall seat total! April 28 UK-Elect forecastPulpstar said:
I think if Dave loses Pudsey he is 100% gone.Dadge said:Doing my seat betting research, I find I agree with Pulpstar, who said that the fate of Pudsey will decide the fate of the nation. Lord A has had it tied twice, the odds are tied, and I get the feeling it's moved into the Tory column this week. Labour will win more difficult targets than Pudsey, but it needs a clean sweep of these easy targets if Ed is to be PM.
What's more, I can see there now just might be a couple of Tory gains from Labour where an incumbent is stepping down. Gulp.
Nuneaton is the countercase for Ed I reckon.
Looking at the calculations it seems to be taking into account the first-time incumbency factor, as well as the constituency polls and the exact mix of candidates standing. In a seat so close even minor factors (e.g. no BNP candidate standing whereas 1549 votes last time) could make a difference.0 -
Dunno. That's a good question.Charles said:An additional thought: the next Parliament for the Tories is about delivering on education and welfare reforms that are already law and about continuing to reduce spending.
How much primary legislation do they actually need to pass?
And if the answer is "not much" does definite control of Parliament matter so long as Miliband can't group enough people to bring the Tories down?0 -
Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.0
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If the Conservatives take Yeovil (A vague outside chance) they could nobble themselves when they go looking for friends !Slackbladder said:
Remember the tories could claim a fair few seats from the lib dems too. Although that doesn't impact upon the labour value.SouthamObserver said:
It depends on how many LD seats they gain. If it is at the low end of expectations (6 or so) I can see a decline. To stay level Labour probably has to win 30-35 seats from the Tories. It's doable, but not a gimme by any stretch. I'd say it's more likely that Labour will be ten down than ten up once all the results are in. Right now, I'd give a likely range of 245 to 265. The only thing that could change that is the vanishingly small chance that a few Scottish Labour MPs hold on against the odds.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'd be very surprised (albeit amused) if Labour had a net loss.
Mind you probably Con Maj if Yeovil drops.0 -
In all this discussion re Ed Miliband no one seems to have questioned just how much internal anger there will be in the party if all these Scots labour mps are redundant. Surely there will be civil war going on and how will that be condusive to running a confidence and supply minority goverment.0
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Labour go into free fall in Scotland, so Ed goes off to seek help from Russell Brand.0
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The issue with CS&R is that - while Thurso will outperform - there was a relatively high "Out" share in the constituency, c. 45% IIRC. This means Thurso will need to either get 90% of the unionist vote, or will need to eat into the "Out"-ers. I suspect it'll be SNP 40, LDs 35.Lennon said:
Given the reputed Thurso personal vote I would have thought Caithness, Sutherland et al should be above Swinson?Pulpstar said:antifrank said:
If the SNP were to get 46 seats, how do you think the other 13 would be made up?Pulpstar said:
Because if it was put to 56, everyone who has bought in at 20 and above would cash out.surbiton said:SPIN stubbornly maintains 285 - 271 difference between Con - Lab. Also , why is SNP still at 46 and not 56 ?
Heck I'd sell at 56. You're getting 2-1 on 50 seats or less. It'd be the value bet of the election. (One could argue you're getting 4-1 given Orkney and Evens 54 seats or less)
I'm guessing SPIN are sitting on heavy losses on that book.
Put another way, if you think that we're more likely to see the SNP exceed 47, is Scottish Labour a more attractive sell at 8 than the SNP are a buy at 47?
47 - Hmm DCT and BRS are probably unionist; Orkney is held... Those could be the last 3 to go SNP tbh - particularly BRS and Orkney.
DWF; RHW; Glasgow NE; Edi South;
Then perhaps Swinson hanging on ?
East Renfrewshire; One of the Paisleys; Coatbridge; Dumfries Galloway Next ?0 -
Oh yes I remember 1992. The Radio Times had a handy guide to interpreting the swings from the early results. 10.50 pm Sunderland. Bang. The RT called the election for Soapbox Guy and my heart sank. The BBC didn't admit what'd happened though, and Peter Snow spent the next four hours tweaking the exit poll until it finally caught up with what Sunderland had told us right at the start.AndyJS said:Some election night statistics for PBers to chew over.
Number of results needed to give the eventual national swing to a particular level of accuracy.
Within (a) 2%, (b) 1%, (c) 0.5%:
2010: (a) 16 (b) 26 (c) 135
2005: (a) 1 (b) 4 (c) 91
2001: (a) 1 (b) 8 (c) 89
1997: (a) 1 (b) 99 (c) 341
1992: (a) 1 (b) 16 (c) 18
1987: (a) 5 (b) 7 (c) 76
1983: (a) 1 (b) 1 (c) 11
1979: (a) 2 (b) 2 (c) 3720 -
Same reason Dave did one with Heat presumably and Clegg spent the day with Joey Essex. Their advisers thought there might be some benefit. Can't see it myself.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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LOL at the Bomb threat for the advert, an overreaction to say the least. Nonetheless, it'll be something forgotten by tomorrow. As for Third wave feminism, with the likes of Emma Watson and Taylor Swift talking about it/promoting it, I doubt Third wave feminism is 'killing itself'. Your average person probably won't even know about this story.0
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The likelihood is that Labour gains from the Tories exceed Tory gains from the LibDems. If they don't then Ed will not last until the Saturday.Slackbladder said:
Remember the tories could claim a fair few seats from the lib dems too. Although that doesn't impact upon the labour value.SouthamObserver said:
It depends on how many LD seats they gain. If it is at the low end of expectations (6 or so) I can see a decline. To stay level Labour probably has to win 30-35 seats from the Tories. It's doable, but not a gimme by any stretch. I'd say it's more likely that Labour will be ten down than ten up once all the results are in. Right now, I'd give a likely range of 245 to 265. The only thing that could change that is the vanishingly small chance that a few Scottish Labour MPs hold on against the odds.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'd be very surprised (albeit amused) if Labour had a net loss.
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That's something that is puzzling me as well. He doesn't seem to have much to gain from it.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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OK, not a bad way of doing it. BBC declaration order is of course not necessarily actual declaration order, although from punters' perspective it's what matters, I suppose.AndyJS said:
Based on my running totals spreadsheets which I've compiled for every election since 1979. I'm in the middle of doing Oct 1974 but had to stop because the BBC weren't flashing every result on the screen like they did from 1979 onwards.RodCrosby said:
How are you calculating this, Andy?AndyJS said:Some election night statistics for PBers to chew over.
Number of results needed to give the eventual national swing to a particular level of accuracy.
Within (a) 2%, (b) 1%, (c) 0.5%:
2010: (a) 16 (b) 26 (c) 135
2005: (a) 1 (b) 4 (c) 91
2001: (a) 1 (b) 8 (c) 89
1997: (a) 1 (b) 99 (c) 341
1992: (a) 1 (b) 16 (c) 18
1987: (a) 5 (b) 7 (c) 76
1983: (a) 1 (b) 1 (c) 11
1979: (a) 2 (b) 2 (c) 372
But if you mean what definition am I using, the national swing has to settle down at the particular percentage, meaning that it doesn't deviate away from that level again. I can't remember what the correct mathematical terms are for it — "tending" I think. It doesn't count if it hits that level but then moves away again, since that would mean it was just a fluke that it had reached that level after X results.
While the numbers are interesting, they are not necessarily that informative. Depends how close a majority or seat level-pegging is indicated.
In 1997 the swing could have remained 2% off for hundreds of results, there was nothing that could alter the overall outcome. In Feb 1974 it wasn't until the last dozen declarations that anyone could be sure who would emerge as largest party, by which time the mathematics of swing were moot.0 -
Can't beat Ed Balls day, though!The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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ElectionForecast have just bumped up UKIP seats from 1 to 2 and DUP from 8 to 9:
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/0 -
Conservatives will have a decisive E&W majority as well as an opposition terrified of another election.Charles said:
An additional thought: the next Parliament for the Tories is about delivering on education and welfare reforms that are already law and about continuing to reduce spending.Richard_Nabavi said:
Exactly so (and vice-versa of course). This point seems to have been missed by many.RepublicanTory said:The key may not be who lines up WITH Labour but who will line up AGAINST the Conservatives, which is not necersarily the same thing.
What's more, the lining-up has to be simultaneous, i.e. the various parties have all got to feel not only that they don't want Ed/Dave (as the case may be) as PM, but also that now is the best time to bring him down. They will make that calculation entirely on the basis of their own partisan interests (though no doubt dressed up with suitable cant). Almost by definition, their partisan interests are not the same as each other's.
The bottom line is that it could be very unpredicatable, with some very odd effects, unless a majority can be formed either by one party, or by two parties.
How much primary legislation do they actually need to pass?
And if the answer is "not much" does definite control of Parliament matter so long as Miliband can't group enough people to bring the Tories down?0 -
Mr. 1000, could be worse. Could be named Joffrey.0
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Scotland prediction
SNP to take 58 Seats, Dundee West to be only seat they fail at.0 -
Why not something more traditional like Wiglaf, or Wulfgar?rcs1000 said:
The rumour is that it's a boy and it's going to be called "Nicholas Clegg Windsor".Pulpstar said:Serious question.
What the fuck happens if a Royal Baby drops on the Election Day !
I can see it cause a big late swing to the Tories.
You heard it here first.
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Who is advising them this stuff is a good thing? I can understand Clegg/Joey Essex thing as the LDs have literally nothing left to lose, but Cameron with a Heat magazine interview? It's a bit like when Gordon Brown embarrassingly said he listened to the Arctic Monkeys. Politicians really need to stop trying to be cool and relevant.SouthamObserver said:
Same reason Dave did one with Heat presumably and Clegg spent the day with Joey Essex. Their advisers thought there might be some benefit. Can't see it myself.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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You and Bob Sykes should star in the inaugural "Pessimist's Cup". At least one of you is going to be [pleasantly] surprised on May 8th.SouthamObserver said:
Spot on. And the Tories will be that far in front. Labour is very unlikely to exceed its current seat number. In fact, the chances are it will go back.SeanT said:Indeed that raises an interesting question. How far ahead must the Tories be in seats, for the charge of "illegitimacy" to really work against an anti-Tory alliance of Nats and Lab?
If Cameron is just a handful of seats in front, Miliband will be OK (and will be PM). My guess (as below) is that Cameron really needs to be 15-20 seats ahead to put the willies up his minority opponents. If Tories are 30-40 seats in front then Cameron will be PM, full stop.0 -
Or Ramsay.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, could be worse. Could be named Joffrey.
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Hmm. Looks like the House of Windsor are eying up the Russian thrown for the royal spare.rcs1000 said:
The rumour is that it's a boy and it's going to be called "Nicholas Clegg Windsor".Pulpstar said:Serious question.
What the fuck happens if a Royal Baby drops on the Election Day !
I can see it cause a big late swing to the Tories.
You heard it here first.0 -
Debretts says that the academic title comes first, however they use Professor in this instance.Morris_Dancer said:That does raise a point: how does one address Sir Sunil Dr. Prasannan? Doctor Sir? Sir Dr.? Surname or first name?
http://www.debretts.com/forms-address/titles/knight0 -
I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are0
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Could even be Brienne and she's a ghost.Sean_F said:
Or Ramsay.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, could be worse. Could be named Joffrey.
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Somehow I don't think the particular demographic of young female lefties is where Ed has the biggest challenge, or for that matter the biggest opportunity.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
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Surely Brand disciples wont vote - because he's said not to.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
On the flip side this is going to turn a few people off Ed.0 -
Mr. F, I think Prince Wulfgar sounds pretty cool.0
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Yes but are these voters registered. Thought Brand was anti votingisam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
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I hadn't realised that Russell Brand lived so close to me. He would be horrified.0
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For those wondering, Joffrey is 500/1 on Ladbrokes.0
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(e.g. no BNP candidate standing whereas 1549 votes last time)
The evaporation of the BNP has not been much discussed, but if you go through the results of many battles in 2010, they trawled more than 1,000. The English democrats also have significant votes to be harvested in some places.
Places such as Ed Miliband's constituency, where the two parties above polled 5,000 votes.0 -
I consider myself a young female leftie (an evil liberal PC femanazi, my existence is enough for this site to explode), and I certainly don't think of Russell Brand in that way at all, although his YouTube channel is a good laugh. I think young female lefties like Charlie Brooker at lot more than they do Russell Brand.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
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LOLTheWatcher said:
That sounds like some kind of 'crisis'.TGOHF said:Your next PM
BBC Politics @BBCPolitics 2m2 minutes ago
Ed Miliband says he agreed to interview with comedian Russell Brand to liven up #GE2015 race http://bbc.in/1JxQ60S
""Some people were saying the campaign was too boring so I thought it would make it more interesting," he said"
"My marriage was too boring, so I thought I'd liven things up with a crack pipe and a couple of hookers"0 -
rcs 1000 : The question last September was "Should Scotland be an independent country?" I never saw anyone say they were inners or outers.
Why are you trying to spin this ?0 -
If the baby is a girl, will they name her Khaleesi?Morris_Dancer said:For those wondering, Joffrey is 500/1 on Ladbrokes.
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It's called FPTP "democracy". The Tories in particular like it. So they can't complain.Sean_F said:
Is it desirable that every Scottish MP (bar one or two) will be a Nationalist, despite half the population voting for Unionists?Tissue_Price said:
It's just a feature of the system that it discounts protest votes unless and until they get up a proper head of steam. Which is arguably desirable.Sean_F said:
That is special pleading, if ever I've read it.Tissue_Price said:
Quite so, it's discounting the votes of ill-informed supporters of minor parties, just as it's designed to.AndyJS said:UKIP and Greens on 20% with TNS = c.6 million votes. Likely to win only 2 or 3 seats. What a fantastic system FPTP is.
Just look at what happened when a minor party finally got enough seats to have an influence - two-thirds of its "supporters" decided they didn't actually support them after all.
(NB tongue slightly in cheek, but not entirely...)0 -
Mr. F, lots of Americans are apparently calling daughters Khaleesi.
Which is stupid, as it's a title.0 -
On checking, I see you can get 500-1 on Khaleesi, with Paddy Power.Sean_F said:
If the baby is a girl, will they name her Khaleesi?Morris_Dancer said:For those wondering, Joffrey is 500/1 on Ladbrokes.
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Anorak.
"You and Bob Sykes should star in the inaugural "Pessimist's Cup". At least one of you is going to be [pleasantly] surprised on May 8th."
I agree and as they both have the worst record for prediction (with the possible exception of me and Easterross) I can only think they're seriously into S+M.
Maybe they'd have more fun in Soho where I'm sure Time Out can direct them to a place with many more like minded people than they'll find on here0 -
Since an illustrious predecessor has been much in the news recently, I'd go for 'Richard'.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, could be worse. Could be named Joffrey.
If he became King, he could be Richard IV:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Blackadder_characters#King_Richard_IV_of_England0 -
For our daughter's name we considered Arya.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, lots of Americans are apparently calling daughters Khaleesi.
Which is stupid, as it's a title.0 -
Oh ok, no young female lefties think of Brand in the way I described thenThe_Apocalypse said:
I consider myself a young female leftie (an evil liberal PC femanazi, my existence is enough for this site to explode), and I certainly don't think of Russell Brand in that way at all, although his YouTube channel is a good laugh. I think young female lefties like Charlie Brooker at lot more than they do Russell Brand.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
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Well, as a middle-aged male rightie, I'd have to agree with them. The Weekly Wipe is excellent satire, and he's a NOT a condescending, pretentious, narcissitic, self-aggrandizing clod with an over-inflated idea of his own intelligence.The_Apocalypse said:
I think young female lefties like Charlie Brooker at lot more than they do Russell Brand.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
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If Russell Brand said "Vote Labour" it would help them immensely IMO and possibly win the election for them... people are that stupidRichard_Nabavi said:
Somehow I don't think the particular demographic of young female lefties is where Ed has the biggest challenge, or for that matter the biggest opportunity.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
As long as this meeting didn't end with him calling Ed a nerd or worse, I think it can only do Labour a lot of good unfortunately0 -
Do you think he's going to want to look like he's been 'told' what to do by the Dork In Chief (DIC)? He's a tad image-conscious, you know.isam said:
If Russell Brand said "Vote Labour" it would help them immensely IMO and possibly win the election for them... people are that stupidRichard_Nabavi said:
Somehow I don't think the particular demographic of young female lefties is where Ed has the biggest challenge, or for that matter the biggest opportunity.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
As long as this meeting didn't end with him calling Ed a nerd or worse, I think it can only do Labour a lot of good unfortunately0 -
One of the stupidest campaigns I have read about in a long while:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3059183/London-Underground-remove-offensive-slimming-adver-posters-defaced-50-000-people-sign-petition-ban-them.html
The permanently offended will be demanding only whales be used for images trying to convey a healthy lifestyle.0 -
Thumbs up from me for Weekly Wipe. Under-rated show IMO.Anorak said:
Well, as a middle-aged male rightie, I'd have to agree with them. The Weekly Wipe is excellent satire, and he's a NOT a condescending, pretentious, narcissitic, self-aggrandizing clod with an over-inflated idea of his own intelligence.The_Apocalypse said:
I think young female lefties like Charlie Brooker at lot more than they do Russell Brand.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
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Joey Essex spent time with all 4 of them didn't he?SouthamObserver said:
Same reason Dave did one with Heat presumably and Clegg spent the day with Joey Essex. Their advisers thought there might be some benefit. Can't see it myself.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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I'd like the baby to be named Joanne or Peter.0
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Not sure how many Russell Brand fans are either bothered to vote or even registered to vote.isam said:
If Russell Brand said "Vote Labour" it would help them immensely IMO and possibly win the election for them... people are that stupidRichard_Nabavi said:
Somehow I don't think the particular demographic of young female lefties is where Ed has the biggest challenge, or for that matter the biggest opportunity.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
As long as this meeting didn't end with him calling Ed a nerd or worse, I think it can only do Labour a lot of good unfortunately0 -
Pot, meet KettleSeanT said:
Ludicrous hyperbole.isam said:
If Russell Brand said "Vote Labour" it would help them immensely IMO and possibly win the election for them... people are that stupidRichard_Nabavi said:
Somehow I don't think the particular demographic of young female lefties is where Ed has the biggest challenge, or for that matter the biggest opportunity.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
As long as this meeting didn't end with him calling Ed a nerd or worse, I think it can only do Labour a lot of good unfortunately 0 -
Miliband meeting Brand ,especially going to his house is a misjudgement on Labours part,no matter what they say the aims are. Presumably he didn't expect to get snapped and end up on Guidos web site.
As a woman ,I don't like Brand .He has a foul mouth .I haven't forgotten what he and Ross did to Andrew Sachs and the way they gloried in it. I'm never going to be a Labour voter but I know many people who were sickened by it and maybe this won't garner the votes Ed is hoping for.
My son is a non voter ,though not in the Brand mould,and nothing is going to persuade him,not even me.............
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More importantly, did any of them actually understand what he was going on about, with his REEMing and YOLOs. They probably needed a slang 101...isam said:
Joey Essex spent time with all 4 of them didn't he?SouthamObserver said:
Same reason Dave did one with Heat presumably and Clegg spent the day with Joey Essex. Their advisers thought there might be some benefit. Can't see it myself.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ympI2mdABUM0 -
You said it yourself, he has 15m followers on youtube, lord knows how many on twitter, and the people that follow him genuinely think he is on to something in terms of politics and class war.. you don't think they do it for his jokes do you?SeanT said:
Ludicrous hyperbole.isam said:
If Russell Brand said "Vote Labour" it would help them immensely IMO and possibly win the election for them... people are that stupidRichard_Nabavi said:
Somehow I don't think the particular demographic of young female lefties is where Ed has the biggest challenge, or for that matter the biggest opportunity.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
As long as this meeting didn't end with him calling Ed a nerd or worse, I think it can only do Labour a lot of good unfortunately
In the tightest election ever, I don't see how support from the most popular politically minded non politician amongst a huge part of the electorate would fail to push whoever he supported over the line0 -
What happens if no party gets a majority and can't negotiate an agreement with one of the smaller parties...who gets first dibs and how would a second election get triggered?0
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Scotland is irrelevant. It's the constituencies that count, and if they almost all hae a majority what else is there to be said?Sean_F said:
Is it desirable that every Scottish MP (bar one or two) will be a Nationalist, despite half the population voting for Unionists?Tissue_Price said:
It's just a feature of the system that it discounts protest votes unless and until they get up a proper head of steam. Which is arguably desirable.Sean_F said:
That is special pleading, if ever I've read it.Tissue_Price said:
Quite so, it's discounting the votes of ill-informed supporters of minor parties, just as it's designed to.AndyJS said:UKIP and Greens on 20% with TNS = c.6 million votes. Likely to win only 2 or 3 seats. What a fantastic system FPTP is.
Just look at what happened when a minor party finally got enough seats to have an influence - two-thirds of its "supporters" decided they didn't actually support them after all.
(NB tongue slightly in cheek, but not entirely...)
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I admit now looking back on it, it's only one piece of anecdotal evidence from me - but I do know many young lefties, and I've had similar thoughts from them on my twitter timeline.isam said:
Oh ok, no young female lefties think of Brand in the way I described thenThe_Apocalypse said:
I consider myself a young female leftie (an evil liberal PC femanazi, my existence is enough for this site to explode), and I certainly don't think of Russell Brand in that way at all, although his YouTube channel is a good laugh. I think young female lefties like Charlie Brooker at lot more than they do Russell Brand.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
While many young lefties may well like Russell Brand, I doubt that he's their main source of political insight.
@Anorak, agreed I love the Weekly Wipe! I'm looking forward to the Election Special Brooker is doing next Wednesday! Should 'liven up' what has been a dull election campaign.
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Brilliant, thanks!Tissue_Price said:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDrQDzIW8AAhMm0.jpgSandpit said:Another childhood hero departs this world. I'm sure Cuddles will still hate that duck.
RIP0 -
The royal couple should go for a name that is both traditional and enduringly popular. Mohammed, maybe.0
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I wonder if Kenny Everett ever made a profound change in voting intentions? Showing my age so I am.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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If no agreement can be made the largest party would put their programme before Parliament and dare the other parties to vote it down.TheKrakenAwakes said:What happens if no party gets a majority and can't negotiate an agreement with one of the smaller parties...who gets first dibs and how would a second election get triggered?
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I know I am getting old, but there seemed to be a lot more frontline gravitas back in the day. Maybe they just seemed that way because I was younger, but I don't remember it being so studenty as it is now with tedious point scoring, name calling and so on. And it is all so utterly fake. I mean Dave is now "pumping and motivated and letting us know it", coincidentally just a day or so after he was criticised for not being these things. Ed has been taking normal classes. I mean, WTF??The_Apocalypse said:
Who is advising them this stuff is a good thing? I can understand Clegg/Joey Essex thing as the LDs have literally nothing left to lose, but Cameron with a Heat magazine interview? It's a bit like when Gordon Brown embarrassingly said he listened to the Arctic Monkeys. Politicians really need to stop trying to be cool and relevant.SouthamObserver said:
Same reason Dave did one with Heat presumably and Clegg spent the day with Joey Essex. Their advisers thought there might be some benefit. Can't see it myself.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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The House of Windsor needs to get a bit more kick-ass. Some dragons would do the trick.Sean_F said:
If the baby is a girl, will they name her Khaleesi?Morris_Dancer said:For those wondering, Joffrey is 500/1 on Ladbrokes.
Although, you have to wonder what the Prince of Wales has been arsing about doing, when they are on the country's flag....0 -
BTW tomorrow night a friend and I are going to Matt Fordes political party at St James Theatre, and the guest is... Tommy Robinson
Any questions you would like me to ask in the Q&A after?0 -
Mr. Thompson, brave consideration, given you don't know [presumably] how the story will go.
Mr. Jessop, fine name for a king.
Mr. SE, ahem, that's been mocked up on Twitter already (saw it yesterday, can't find it readily).0 -
Eddie Izzard never helped Labour's...Creidekki said:
I wonder if Kenny Everett ever made a profound change in voting intentions? Showing my age so I am.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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Would he vote for Maajid Nawaz as his representative in parliament?isam said:BTW tomorrow night a friend and I are going to Matt Fordes political party at St James Theatre, and the guest is... Tommy Robinson
Any questions you would like me to ask in the Q&A after?0 -
"Let's bomb Russia! Let's kick Michael Foot's stick away!"Creidekki said:
I wonder if Kenny Everett ever made a profound change in voting intentions? Showing my age so I am.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsokGIeQFFI0 -
Naughty...antifrank said:The royal couple should go for a name that is both traditional and enduringly popular. Mohammed, maybe.
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How many of those followers are over 18 years old, live in the UK and are registered to vote? How many of them live in the key marginal constituencies? How many of them weren't planning to vote Labour already?isam said:
You said it yourself, he has 15m followers on youtube, lord knows how many on twitter, and the people that follow him genuinely think he is on to something in terms of politics and class war.. you don't think they do it for his jokes do you?SeanT said:
Ludicrous hyperbole.isam said:
If Russell Brand said "Vote Labour" it would help them immensely IMO and possibly win the election for them... people are that stupidRichard_Nabavi said:
Somehow I don't think the particular demographic of young female lefties is where Ed has the biggest challenge, or for that matter the biggest opportunity.isam said:I bow to no one in my dislike of Russell Brand, but amazingly, young female lefties think he is a wise God like creature with devastating insight into the world of politics... I cant see how this is that bad for Miliband unless Brand calls him a rude word of some kind, look at who the undecided voters are
As long as this meeting didn't end with him calling Ed a nerd or worse, I think it can only do Labour a lot of good unfortunately
In the tightest election ever, I don't see how support from the most popular politically minded non politician amongst a huge part of the electorate would fail to push whoever he supported over the line0 -
Don't think I can make it to London on May 7th
Anyone pardying in the Midlands? 0 -
Whose Matt Forde and whose Tommy Robinson? Never heard of 'em.
Whats going on in the markets? They've gone stark ravers. Lab majority out to 100 & tories in on 1.27. Is this just trading off last few good tory polls or more rumoured in pipeline?
o/t doesn't 100% follow that Con-Lab will produce largest party. Cons could lose 30 to Lab and still be largest after SLAB & LD wipeouts.0 -
Ok...would that automatically trigger another election or would the second biggest party then try the same? albeit with presumably the same result.AndyJS said:
If no agreement can be made the largest party would put their programme before Parliament and dare the other parties to vote it down.TheKrakenAwakes said:What happens if no party gets a majority and can't negotiate an agreement with one of the smaller parties...who gets first dibs and how would a second election get triggered?
I guess the only certainty in that event would be that, as a result of all that uncertainty, all the economic forecasts go out of the window and the prospects of either more cuts in spending and/or borrowing go up0 -
What about Roger as a name for the royal baby?0
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About as much as martin freeman? Derision & desperation seem to be the response to EdM on Brand but we underestimate Miliband at our peril. He's a knifer that one for sure.Creidekki said:
I wonder if Kenny Everett ever made a profound change in voting intentions? Showing my age so I am.The_Apocalypse said:Why on earth is Miliband doing an interview with Russell Brand? I don't hate Brand, but it's hardly going to be a game-changer. More of a laugh, and something to trend on twitter for a couple of hours or so.
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