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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’ve been seat betting based on the Ashcroft polls then Nuneaton could be the first test
The point I’ll be waiting for on the night will be the first LAB-CON marginals to declare. These are the seats that will determine which party comes top and all that could mean in the post-election bantering.
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Pudsey I reckon is the other way round.
That'll be Warrington and Widnes in the County Palatine of Lancaster, north of the Mersey? ;-)
Any debate or discussion involving things being placed in counties is impossible these days after successive Governments spent millions continuously buggering about with the boundaries....
TORY 206 = 33.88
Lab 202 = 33.22
UKIP 93 = 15.30
LD 44 = 7.24
Green 29 = 4.77
Weighted base 608.
That'll be Warrington and Widnes in the County Palatine of Lancaster, north of the Mersey? ;-)
Any debate or discussion involving things being placed in counties is impossible these days after successive Governments spent millions continuously buggering about with the boundaries....
My plan is to have just two English counties.
Great Yorkshire and Not Yorkshire.
Yes I'm aware Great Yorkshire is a tautology.
1) looks like swingback is underway
2) Dave's insistence on the Greens in the debates was strategically very sound (frankly at the time I couldn't understand why they would want someone who was clearly very strange....)
3) Nicola Sturgeon doing so well.. is going to have the opposite effect that one might have thought.
4) ironic the Scots like her so much yet loathed Maggie... Give Sturgeon time, she will be equally loathed.
Somerton & Frome
Dundee West
Brent Central
Man who might be PM in 10 days hasn't even got the strength to ask Brand to come to him. God helps us if he ever has to stand up to Putin
I'm assuming it was straight after he had been on the nitrous oxide
http://tinyurl.com/lq63tg9
"official" = 0.1% Lab lead
YouGovs-only = 0.7% Lab lead
Non-YouGovs = 0.6% TORY lead
Take your pick
Great Yorkshire and Not Yorkshire.
Yes I'm aware Great Yorkshire is a tautology.
Fine by me - means that you're stuck with Middlesbrough!
I've been on a 121 - from Aylesbury to Quainton Road, August Bank Holiday 2012.
Why produce figures to 2dp? Again, the 206 etc. are rounded inputs (to 0dp) so generating a 2dp outcome is a classic case of false precision.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/4321614/My-staff-wrote-Barack-Obama-tribute-junior-minister-Dawn-Butler-admits.html
Latest Midlands swings by subsample averages by other pollsters.
MIDLANDS
6.5 (4.0) WM Cannock Chase
6.2 YOUGOV (incl Wales)
6.0 (5.0) EM Milton Keynes South
5.0 (4.0) EM Nuneaton
4.3 SURVATION
4.0 (3.5) EE Great Yarmouth
4.0 ICM
3.8 POPULUS
3.5 (4.5) EM High Peak
3.0 (1.0) WM Dudley South
3.0 (2.5) WM Halesowen
2.8 IPSOS MORI
2.1 ASHCROFT
2.0 COMRES
0.5 (1.5) EE Harlow
0.5 (0.5) EE Thurrock
0.5 (2.0) EM Loughborough
0.0 (1.0) EE Castle Point
Although perhaps it should refer to the earlier Flying Bananas (even if they did operate on the GWR):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GWR_railcars
If it's the one about Scotland being a test bed that was confirmed as true by recently released cabinet papers.
Broxtowe is another pointer. Hold this, and Labour will be going backwards in terms of seats.
For TNS, it's devilishly easy - all six numbers I need for ELBOW are there on page 1 of their table:
http://www2.tnsglobal.com/l/36112/2015-04-28/4z77l3/36112/92380/BIF_Data_tables_28Apr2015.pdf
http://www.theguardian.com/culture/2015/apr/28/brand-and-miliband-lets-pray-it-was-something-sordid-rather-than-political
Brands not utterly thick, if he endorses Ed then it destroys his credibility.
The Cabinet papers reference which people seized on was merely stating the obvious - that if you're introducing a big change, it's better to do it in one region initially to reduce implementation risk. However, that wasn't the reason Scotland introduced it first.
Late night visit, does look a bit shifty, doesn't it?
'Labour's Ed Miliband says he agreed to an interview with comedian and political campaigner Russell Brand to liven up the election race.
"Some people were saying the campaign was too boring so I thought it would make it more interesting," he said.'
Of course you did Ed, of course.
Probability of Dawn Butler getting elected with a red rosette in Brent Central ? 100%
Maybe they will try and make the last week of the election about their mutual hatred of Rupert Murdoch?
City Workers and Finance Sector - Tory 46%, Labour 19%, LD 5%, Green 4%, UKIP 10%
Health Sector Labour 31%, Tory 27%, LD 6%, Green 4%, UKIP 11%
Students Labour 29%, Tory 25%, Green 13%, LD 8% UKIP 4%
Unemployed Labour 36%, Tory 16%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%, LD 6%
AB Tory 37%, Labour 26%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%, Green 5%
C1 Tory 30%, Labour 27%, UKIP 10%, LD 7%, Green 7%
C2 Labour 30%, Tory 27%, UKIP 15%, LD 4%, Green 4%
D Labour 32%, Tory 23%, UKIP 16%, LD 5%, Green 4%
E Labour 38%, Tory 19%, UKIP 15%, LD 5%, Green 4%
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/red-box-the-voters
@Anorak: Yes, I was thinking along similar lines too.
@SquareRoot: Yes, I'd agree Sturgeon probably does seem the type to hang on to power - however, I think the key reasons behind Scots' hatred of Blair and Thatcher, is the ideology both embraced. Given that I Sturgeon is a centre-left politician, although (like with all political leaders) they'll get sick of her at some point, I think she'd have to do something terrible to be loathed.
I've had a look behind this morning's GDP numbers and the growth fuelling components of the UK economy are in a dire state.
I am even more convinced any Tory led government post election is running us headling into another recession.
Edit: According to Wikipedia, font of all knowledge: "The Scottish revaluation of 1985/1986 led to a great deal of criticism and gave added urgency to rates reform or replacement."
Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Miliband hanging out with Russell Brand is extremely high risk, not the act of a frontrunner. Brave politics, or first sign of Labour panic?
As it is, if Labour do somehow end up leading a coalition government, then they will not be able to moan about the deficit that they will inherit from the Tories. I have no doubt that they will try anyway!
Giles Watling@GilesWatling·15 hrs15 hours ago
To all those who asked - sorry for the delay, your boards and posters are on their way! I thank you all
Lorraine King@LorraineKing27·17 hrs17 hours ago
#clactonhustings audience asks if Douglas Carswell loves the area so much when is he going to buy a house here!
Giles Watling retweeted
Danny Mayzes@TweetMayzes·15 hrs15 hours ago
A DRM poll finds @GilesWatling the clear winner of tonight's #ClactonHustings. Clear answers, clear vision for Clacton and true passion
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell · 15h 15 hours ago
Thrilled with tonight's #ClactonHustings - several more requests for garden boards and more volunteer leafleters!
Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell · 5 hrs5 hours ago
I loved the #Clacton hustings last night! Here's my take on it .... http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/clacton-candidates-hustings/2830 …
First past the post encourages short-termism and has got us to this point. Sadly, turkeys do not vote for Christmas. Though maybe SLab's MPs should have done so when they had the chance.
Postal voting is underway and there's only 8 days of campaigning left, one of which is a bank holiday. Meanwhile the politicians are fighting the Nepalese earthquake for headlines and there's a Royal baby on the way. Surely the only thing that will change the game either way at this stage is a massive gaffe from one of the leaders?
Ta.