politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new s

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.

Really?

538 predict Labour on 267 and Tories on 286

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/


If Labour actually make 260 that implies that possibly a handful of Tory marginals stayed unexpectedly Blue - just four such seats, in fact, for Tories to reach 290.

538 will be correct only IF the SNP does much worse than predicted and IF the LD do much worse than predicted against the Tories.
2 very big IF's equals no way.

anotherDave said:

Flightpath1 said:

anotherDave said:

Flightpath1 said:

Brom said:

Toffeenose said:

taffys said:

Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

I wonder if this is sinking in....

I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.

Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.

You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other.
There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7.
UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.

If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html

80 tories and a couple of others voted for - the rest of Parliament voted against. If the tories had been whipped to vote the other way then a similar number of tories would have voted against the whip. There was no majority in parliament.

There would be a majority for a referendum in 2017 following negotiations if we get a tory majority.

If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011, it would have passed.

You seem to be saying that Conservative MPs are so emphatically opposed to an EU referendum that they would never vote in favour of one.

At the same time you say that voting for Conservative Party candidates is the best way to get a referendum. Clearly that is not the case.

Voters in favour of an EU referendum should vote for candidates who are in favour of an EU referendum. That would only include a minority of Conservative MPs. All UKIP candidates are in favour of an EU referendum.

At any rate, it implies that even if there were a whipped vote in favour of an EU referendum, a substantial minority of Conservative MPs would rebel.

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.

Really?

538 predict Labour on 267 and Tories on 286

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/


If Labour actually make 260 that implies that possibly a handful of Tory marginals stayed unexpectedly Blue - just four such seats, in fact, for Tories to reach 290.

I seem to remember 538 didn't do very well last time in their predictions.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Was this the last Lord A poll before the election?

Next week is May Day Bank Holiday!

But is it a case of "May Day! May Day!" for Labour or the Tories?

At this rate.

Both of them.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.

Really?

538 predict Labour on 267 and Tories on 286

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/


If Labour actually make 260 that implies that possibly a handful of Tory marginals stayed unexpectedly Blue - just four such seats, in fact, for Tories to reach 290.

I seemed to remember 538 didn't do very well last time in their predictions.

They are just using a slightly out of date Hanretty this time.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

At any rate, it implies that even if there were a whipped vote in favour of an EU referendum, a substantial minority of Conservative MPs would rebel.

An implication which is complete nonsense. There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of any significant rebellion.

David Cameron would be one of them.
And don't mention snow today.

OblitusSumMe said:

Barnesian said:

Scott_P said:

Firewall alert!!!

@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015

It shows a large shift. 25% of 2010 LD voters have switched to Con compared with only 19% switching to Lab! This is 2010 LD voters we are talking about including all the red LDs.

However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.

Maybe, but it's a pattern that has been emerging over the last 6-12 months, as I've mentioned on here a few times. In today's Ashcroft National Poll the 2010 Lib Dems split by 24:19 in Labour's favour (though the net swing is smaller), which is still a tiny advantage compared to what you'd have seen earlier in the Parliament.

On Cannock Chase it's interesting that so many Labour 2010 voters say they don't know how they will vote, compared to 2010 Conservative voters. If there was a clear desire to turf Cameron out they would have no doubt. Ashcroft reallocates them to Miliband, but if they vote UKIP or Tory instead then Cannock Chase becomes a Conservative hold.

The UKIP seat polls are quite disappointing for them. I was expecting seats like Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth to become genuine three-way marginals, but UKIP are 17 and 12 points behind, and they might even end up being third in Grimsby.

YouGov's Nowcast has Great Grimsby as a UKIP/Lab tie "too close to call"

Great Yarmouth a three way tie "leaning conservative"

Cannock Chase 'leaning Labour', with UKIP/Con tied in close 2nd.

Castle Point 'too close to call'. Con/UKIP tie.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

I want to know what the Labour inclined voters of Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk are going to do in the election.

Given I'm on the SNP at 66/1, I hope they'll do the decent thing!

Bloody Hell !

I assume you have Panda coverage too

Apologies if this has been covered somewhere but do we know who has carried the poll when Lord A publishes one?

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.

If Lab are on 260, that means about 33 Lab gains from Con, putting Con on about 280 seats.

That is quite possible. If it happens, Con can't survive a motion of no confidence, even with LD and UKIP help.

However Lab can survive a motion of no confidence with help from SNP and abstinence from LDs (who won't want a second election and neither will the SNP).

It will be an interesting Parliament because legislation will only pass with the support of SNP and LDs (or Con on Trident). There will be no EU referendum. There will be increased taxes on the wealthy and more spending on the NHS, but the overall amount of legislation will be greatly reduced to relief all round. I think it will be an outstanding Parliament.

I signed up for YouGov's panel a while ago and gave up after a few days. It is an incredibly time-consuming activity, and pays an awful hourly rate.

Don't dispute that YG are credible and established, but I do feel that I'm reading polls of YG's panel, rather than national randomised VI polls.

chestnut said:

weejonnie said:

If UKIP is fading on the constituency polls by phone then why not on the internet polls? Shy kippers? Even ICM had UKIP back up.

Something I didn't spot till now - the Wikipedia 15-day moving average graph hasn't been updated for 3 weeks.

Looking at the constituent parts of Ashcroft and ICM polls and then Opinium and Populus, it appears that the phone polls reach more full time workers, while internet polls get many more economically inactive (incl. students) respondents.

I know they're weighted, but they're talking to different demographics.

SPUD

The best way of telling how the political wind is blowing

Today/All time
3 polls/20 polls from 11 pollsters

CON +4/-4
LAB +1/-12
UKIP NC/+8
LD-2/-1
Green +3/+4

anotherDave said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Barnesian said:

Scott_P said:

Firewall alert!!!

@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015

It shows a large shift. 25% of 2010 LD voters have switched to Con compared with only 19% switching to Lab! This is 2010 LD voters we are talking about including all the red LDs.

However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.

Maybe, but it's a pattern that has been emerging over the last 6-12 months, as I've mentioned on here a few times. In today's Ashcroft National Poll the 2010 Lib Dems split by 24:19 in Labour's favour (though the net swing is smaller), which is still a tiny advantage compared to what you'd have seen earlier in the Parliament.

On Cannock Chase it's interesting that so many Labour 2010 voters say they don't know how they will vote, compared to 2010 Conservative voters. If there was a clear desire to turf Cameron out they would have no doubt. Ashcroft reallocates them to Miliband, but if they vote UKIP or Tory instead then Cannock Chase becomes a Conservative hold.

The UKIP seat polls are quite disappointing for them. I was expecting seats like Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth to become genuine three-way marginals, but UKIP are 17 and 12 points behind, and they might even end up being third in Grimsby.

YouGov's Nowcast has Great Grimsby as a UKIP/Lab tie "too close to call"

Great Yarmouth a three way tie "leaning conservative"

Cannock Chase 'leaning Labour', with UKIP/Con tied in close 2nd.

Castle Point 'too close to call'. Con/UKIP tie.

That's based on their national polls, so for them to fall short of that in constituency specific polling is disappointing, as I said.

Perhaps the Ashcroft constituency polls will prove to be inaccurate. Not long to find out.

@Tim_B how are you sending yours back, by normal first class, or using a priority service?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Barnesian said:

Purseybear said:

in case you missed the correction Ashcrofts national sample size was standard 1003 people

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ANP-150427MONX-Full-data-tables.pdf

When it was corrected for Won't Vote, Don't Know etc it reduced to 558. The % shares are based on 558 people. See Table 3.

But Ashcroft sampled 1,003 people in total (that's the number we use on Wikipedia).

Actually 558 excludes the correction for 2010 DK/Refused.

isam said:

SPUD

The best way of telling how the political wind is blowing

Today/All time
3 polls/20 polls from 11 pollsters

CON +4/-4
LAB +1/-12
UKIP NC/+8
LD-2/-1
Green +3/+4

I haven't forgotten about the SPUD. I'll try and get to it soon.....

edit: also, once I get you the figures, instead of 'all time', you could just have 'short campaign', for instance?

Also ElectionForecast:

Con 286
Lab 267

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

The evidence in favour of 290 / 260 is mounting rather quickly and heavily.

Looks like my 250/1 tip in Cannock Chase is more likely to be a loser than I thought.. oh the shame

MP_SE said:

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Flightpath1 said:

Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.

Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

Tories now begging kippers to vote for them , how desperate

Indeed. I couldn't care less if Labour get into government. Long term it could be quite useful to win over Red Kippers.

Plus once they destroy the economy there will be lots of cheap assets to buy.

My view is vote Conservative where UKIP is clearly out of the running, and it's a close contest between Con/Lab or Con/Lib Dem. Vote UKIP everywhere else.

SeanT said:

Tim_B said:

Alistair said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.

Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.

I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.

I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.

It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.

Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.

February Average

Like you said: Cornwall.

Ha, just seen Brown backed Miliband. But does the Curse of Jonah Brown still work?

We shall see.

Today's conclusion is that ukip are set to get 3 max.,Clacton nailed on,Thanet South where 7-1 on Lab looks big and Thurrock which looks vulnerable to Lab at 11-4.1-3 ukip seats has been my long-term spread and I see no reason to lay off.

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.

Yes there is !

258-41=217 Labour seats without scotland.
306-1=305 Tory seats without scotland.

260-217= 43 Lab gains: 10 from LD, 33 from CON.

305-33=272
272+10 LD gains= 282 without any small UKIP loses.

Tories either need to gain 20 seats from the LD (impossible).
Or the SNP has to gain 6 seats less from Labour (very unlikely).

I think you're too optimistic on Labour gains from the LibDems and too pessimistic on Conservative gains from them.

LibDem -> Labour

Certain:
Bristol West
Brent Central
Burnley
Manchester Withington
Norwich South
Redcar

Probable:
Birmingham Yardley

Likely:
Bradford East
Hornsey & Wood Green
Cardiff Central

Possible:
Sheffield Hallam

Unlikely:
Cambridge
Leeds NW

I suspect that the Libs will hold at least one of my "likely" list, and possibly two. Birmingham Yardley is also by no means certain.

But I can see the Conservatives sweeping the board in the SW from the LibDems.

Agree with most of that apart from B'ham Yardley. Ashcroft showed Hemming ahead and I would expect that to be the result on polling day.

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

OllyT said:

Apologies if this has been covered somewhere but do we know who has carried the poll when Lord A publishes one?

I don't think so, he keeps that info private.

Methodology looks ICMish on this one.

270 raw Con voters. There is the swingback at any rate.

ICM-ish but not quite.

ICM allocate 50% each of 2010 LD/Con/Lab Don't knows and Refusers to account for the so-called "spiral of silence".

Ashcrofts allocates 50% of Con and Lab, but only 30% of LD 2010 DK/ref.

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

Tim_B said:

Alistair said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.

Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.

I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.

I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.

It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.

Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.

Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.

There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.

A story for you on that topic. My grandparents moved to Dartmouth in 1970 because they'd heard about the supposedly mild winters; they bought a house on the top of the hill overlooking the valley. Unfortunately they found that the mild temperatures in winter were mostly cancelled out by the strong winds so it actually felt just as cold as anywhere else. They hadn't bargained on the fact that of course the official temperature figures don't usually include wind-chill.

Their response to this setback was to move to the Isle of Man a couple of years later, where exactly the same thing happened again. Mild temperatures but with a strong wind-chill factor. (They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Barnesian said:

Purseybear said:

in case you missed the correction Ashcrofts national sample size was standard 1003 people

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ANP-150427MONX-Full-data-tables.pdf

When it was corrected for Won't Vote, Don't Know etc it reduced to 558. The % shares are based on 558 people. See Table 3.

But Ashcroft sampled 1,003 people in total (that's the number we use on Wikipedia).

Actually 558 excludes the correction for 2010 DK/Refused.

By my calculations (which are sometimes correct!), I make the final Ashcroft sample 581.

AndyJS said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

Tim_B said:

Alistair said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.

Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.

in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.

It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.

Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.

Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.

There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.

A story for you on that topic. My grandparents moved to Dartmouth in 1970 because they'd heard about the supposedly mild winters; they bought a house on the top of the hill overlooking the valley. Unfortunately they found that the mild temperatures were mostly cancelled out by the strong winds so it actually felt just as cold as anywhere else. They hadn't bargained on the fact that of course the official temperature figures don't usually include wind-chill.

Their response to this setback was to move to the Isle of Man a couple of years later, where exactly the same thing happened again. Mild temperatures but with a strong wind-chill factor. (They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).

The area has its own microclimate which enables all kinds of tropical plants to flourish. The gardens at Sharpitor and Compton Fishacre are well worth visiting.

As a new poster, I’d like to gloss over my own biases and just give my day 1 opinion on the current state of the whole election.
To start GE2010 delivered an outcome that mirrored public opinion in almost too precise way in terms of what was granted and denied to each party for FPTP. To me a big enough pool of jaded swing voters in enough marginals had a good gut feeling on who they needed to thwart or advance in their own seats. What side to take in a battle is perhaps where most people's sense of risk is most reliable.
GE2015 also now looks to need a precise outcome. For a good time the polls have reflected simply the desire to deny every single party what they want: Lab/Con well short of a majority, LD denied the balance. Pools of Lab/Con voters have moved back and forth from other parties, meaning if one party looked to pull ahead, a counter move would quickly rebalance things. No issue could cut this bungee cord, only a catastrophic blunder or another ball.
Thus the Tories throwing the SNP into the mix - this has changed the narrative: deny SNP balance IS the higher priority for jaded swing, deny LD less so. But this first requires one the main two parties to get much closer to majority.
The Tories have tried to own that narrative, ignoring that Labour could also get closer. It might just be working, but it now needs to do so in a convincing enough way the electorate, looking for a winner, can see Con are ahead and make the lead stick. If Con can't do that, the danger increases of a Labour counter-swing over the BH weekend. Basically, next goal wins, with the Tories needing to capitalise soon. If a 0-0 draw by next Thursday, the possibility of a very late LD surge. I 've no idea which might happen, just when they might.
So, the paradox of the SNP effect could be that a stable coalition is more up for grabs than in a while. GE prediction - one side winning by 4% or a near dead heat in which LD surprise is more likely than a 2 % win.
The polls themselves are key to signalling a likely winner but they still aren’t settling down. Ironic that the Sun’s pollster maintains a Labour lead! Is it fanciful that we are already seeing in the polls a desire to get a clear seats winner, but that the pools of responders aligned to each pollster follow their own polls more closely and solidify whatever party they see lead, resulting in two opposing sets of polls? Are the house effects reinforcing themselves?

I don't think even todays polls have told me anything different from the outset. That the Tories will probably win on about 34%-32% (Lab) of the popular vote, and maybe 10-15 marginals will dictate whether the Tories win 275-290 seats. Plus there will be some surprises, but which will cancel each other out- an unexpected Tory gain, UKIP gain and Labour gain.

Out of all the pollsters, I hope Ashcroft falls on his arse, and sods off back to Belize with his dosh. I find the way he has made himself a central figure in this campaign grating to say the least.

The Locus adjusted poll of polls today is 35-30-10-14. This gives Con 302 Lab 259, i.e. virtually a standstill from 2010, except of course that there'll only be around 16 LD MPs. Still, unless Ed does something soon, I think Dave's back in.

malcolmg said:

TGOHF said:

Flightpath1 said:

Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.

Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

Tories now begging kippers to vote for them , how desperate

Surely they've been begging Kippers to vote for them for 5 years, I don't think it's that new a thing in response to desperation. Oh, they're desperate alright, but this isn't a new sign of it.

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

Tim_B said:

Alistair said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.

Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.

I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.

I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.

It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.

Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.

Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.

There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.

That southwest coast of Devon is exquisite. I went to Salcombe for the first time a few weeks ago. The sun shone, the seafood was great, it was like a friendlier version of the nicest part of Britttany.

The Coast Road from Salcombe to Dartmouth must be one of the most beautiful in the world.

Yeah. I can believe it. I was so taken with Salcombe and environs I checked some of the local property prices.

Wow. Up there with London.

My grandmother sold it on the transparently selfish ground that she was getting old and could no longer tolerate the winters down there (it was much more isolated then than it is now). At no point did she consider the wishes of her heirs.

Dadge said:

The Locus adjusted poll of polls today is 35-30-10-14. This gives Con 302 Lab 259, i.e. virtually a standstill from 2010, except of course that there'll only be around 16 LD MPs. Still, unless Ed does something soon, I think Dave's back in.

Yep, it's Dave again. Pity his heart isn't in it, would rather be mooching around Witney / Tuscany / Cornwall.

Last 15 YG + Populus Mean 33.2 CON / 34.6 LAB
Last 15 non YG + Populus Mean 33.9 CON / 32.1LAB

We are in for a very rocky period if Labour are a clear second in the seat count and Labour + SNP > Conservatives. Whatever government we get afterwards, a large section of the public will consider it a fix.

AndyJS said:

Dadge said:

The Locus adjusted poll of polls today is 35-30-10-14. This gives Con 302 Lab 259, i.e. virtually a standstill from 2010, except of course that there'll only be around 16 LD MPs. Still, unless Ed does something soon, I think Dave's back in.

Yep, it's Dave again. Pity his heart isn't in it, would rather be mooching around Witney / Tuscany / Cornwall.

I presume you didn't see him yesterday in Yeovil on Sky. He may or may not win but the meme that he is really not that bothered is absurd.

SeanT said:

@comrespolls

55% of Brits expect the government should be led by the party with the most seats, only 34% accept that a larger Coalition of smaller parties should lead.

https://twitter.com/ComResPolls/status/592733580876447746/photo/1

THIS is why it would be crazy for Miliband to gang up with the Nats and outvote a larger Tory party. Just because it is doable does not mean it is acceptable to the voters.

It will be interesting to see how people react to it, given those views. I do think the word legitimate is a bit wrong on the reliance on SNP MPs - it's not a question of whether it is legitimate for me, because it is legitimate, just whether an avowed nationalist party would be able to act in the best interests of the entire UK;hopefully they will surprise us(and hopefully that comment will stop someone jumping down my throat for voicing the concern; please also see my compliment to the SNP below) - but there's a lot that is allowable and is even likely that significant numbers may have concerns with yet won't vote to prevent happening.

I think it depends on how bold the SNP go in any agreement - heard some interesting views from some people today who think Miliband should play hard ball and dare them to vote him out, which would be fascinating to see - and if they are smart, and they have proven themselves to be so, then that high proportion of people who think the largest party should form the government may not get as riled up as some might fear.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Life_ina_market_town said:

A substantial renegotiation by 2017 is impossible, so any purported renegotiation would be an exercise in dishonesty, not a genuine means of informing public opinion.

By the same reasoning so would any claims by the Out camp as to what we would negotiate if we left the EU (a negotiation which wouldn't even have started).

Life is full of uncertainties. Get used to it.

False equivalence. Why am I not surprised?

Cameron is claiming he will have a settled renegotiation by 2017. This is an outright lie. No Outer is making a claim that everything would be settled in our favour until - or even after - we had left.

Cameron is the one who has set an unachievable deadline. Anyone supporting that deadline is either stupid or dishonest.

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome to the site, Mr. Rata.

Some here do think a reasonably likely result is Con-Lib Coalition part 2.

I think that Mr (Ms?) Rata is saying that despite all its flaws and inadequacies, FPTP does tend to actually reflect the will of the public fairly well, and I agree.

In 2010 the country wanted rid of Labour but did not want the Tories completely off the lead. This time they are unconvinced by either party, and want both sides on a lead, and to finally settle a few constitutional issues relating to devolution. It looks as if it is on the cards too.

Betfair Most Seats:

Con 1.33/1.34 (Shortest ever)
Lab 4.0/4.1 (Longest ever - not surprisingly)

We now have sun shining with large hailstones battering down , bizarre

''but if the Tories are clearly the largest party? No.''

What, precisely, could the voters do about it? F8ck all.

Mr. G, we had that here a few years ago. Hailstones the size of radishes. Surprisingly, the windows were entirely unscratched. Glad I wasn't out in it, though.

MikeL said:

Betfair Most Seats:

Con 1.33/1.34 (Shortest ever)
Lab 4.0/4.1 (Longest ever - not surprisingly)

A bit surprised there's been moves today. Ashcroft's polls are widely considered to be at "junk" status, and ICM's poll is not really out of step with their previous ones.

I LOATHE this new 'pumped up' Dave. It reminds me of Rugby matches at school but there the person giving the Henry V speech was at least build like a brick shithouse not someone who's trickled out of Compton's

The LD plan was to possibly throw their lot in with Labour this time to counterbalance supporting the Tories over the last five years. The SNP surge means that isn't viable, so the chances of them getting into bed with the Tories are much higher now IMO. Lab + LD won't be higher than about 290.

ELBOW'ing the four polls today (Sun YG, Populus, ICM and Ashcroft) = Lab lead of 0.4%

But...

but...

excluding YG gives a TORY lead of 0.6%!

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

@comrespolls

55% of Brits expect the government should be led by the party with the most seats, only 34% accept that a larger Coalition of smaller parties should lead.

https://twitter.com/ComResPolls/status/592733580876447746/photo/1

THIS is why it would be crazy for Miliband to gang up with the Nats and outvote a larger Tory party. Just because it is doable does not mean it is acceptable to the voters.

It will be interesting to see how people react to it, given those views. I do think the word legitimate is a bit wrong on the reliance on SNP MPs - it's not a question of whether it is legitimate for me, because it is legitimate, just whether an avowed nationalist party would be able to act in the best interests of the entire UK;hopefully they will surprise us(and hopefully that comment will stop someone jumping down my throat for voicing the concern; please also see my compliment to the SNP below) - but there's a lot that is allowable and is even likely that significant numbers may have concerns with yet won't vote to prevent happening.

I think it depends on how bold the SNP go in any agreement - heard some interesting views from some people today who think Miliband should play hard ball and dare them to vote him out, which would be fascinating to see - and if they are smart, and they have proven themselves to be so, then that high proportion of people who think the largest party should form the government may not get as riled up as some might fear.

I agree with all that.

Clearly a government based on the second largest party will be legitimate if it has the confidence of the House. Just as it is legitimate for UKIP to get 13% of the vote and only 3 seats, and SNP to get 4% of the vote and 50 seats. Those are the rules until they are changed.

Many people will be unhappy but there is nothing they can do about it except froth.

SeanT said:

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

Tim_B said:

Alistair said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

m too.

I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.

It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.

Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.

Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.

There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.

(They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).

That's why I suspect a sheltered riverside village in Cornwall will probably be warmer than the Scillies. The Scillies are exposed, the southern creeks of Cornwall are protected.

It also helps that places like Restronguet or Mawnan or Helford are stunningly lovely.

http://www.lindfordhouse.com/images/south_helford/sch13.jpg

https://www.visitcornwall.com/sites/default/files/styles/product_image/public/trebah03.JPG?itok=CNaweTI3

So where should I go for my first visit to Cornwall then

I'd base yourself somewhere around Falmouth. Then you are just a few minutes from the beautiful creeks and gardens of the south coast (and a ferry ride from the gorgeous Roseland), but you;re only 20 minutes drive from the wildness of the north coast: magnificent Cape Cornwall (it's in the Poldark titles), spooky Zennor, winsome St Ives. And Falmouth itself is a very pleasant, lively town.

Thanks Sean