politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf after a day dominated by Libya

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

Agreed. I couldn't play the sport for toffee, but I love watching it.

Not a fan of T20 though.

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

this election is like watching a slow motion car crash as we head into to being governed by the most dangerous prime minister the country has ever known, I fear for my children if EdM get the keys to number 10

AndyJS said:

EPG said:

AndyJS said:

Tykejohnno said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/591667037212155905/photo/1

Con + LD + UKIP + DUP = 319, just 4 short of the target. 3 short if the DUP win back Belfast East.

Lab + SNP + DUP = 324. More likely than blue rainbow, I think.

The DUP won't have anything to do with an SNP coalition or agreement.

Pray tell, why not? I must break the news that the DUP did not arrive at their love of Crown and Union through disinterested, agnostic philosophical reflection on the optimal composition of the United Kingdom.

The DUP have ruled out a coalition or formal arrangement with the SNP - big whoop, the only likely coalition is Con-LD as every other small party runs for their lives (literally?) from the dreaded C-word. As for a formal arrangement, pre-agreed pacts are for coalitions.

The DUP deal would be about quid pro quo, confidence and supply in exchange for Northern spending, and let the opposition Lib Dems vote for the nice progressive things coming from Lab-SNP.

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%

Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 16s 16 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%

@TelePolitics: Ed Miliband suggested forming coalition government with SNP in 2010 http://t.co/jEeqPu0lfs

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

It is the absolute pinnacle of sporting achievement.

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

tyson said:

Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
There is a review....

I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.

The length of time accentuates the drama, allows for more shifts back and forth, I always feel. When you have a five day game that can still come down to the final hour, the final overs, the suspense is mesmerizing. You can relax, listening and tuning in on and off for days as a pleasant distraction but nothing more, then passages of frantic activity turn things on its head and days of effort from an entire team can pay off or come to nothing. Such glory.

It is beautiful.

A Lab/LD coalition with SNP confidence and supply was always an outside chance. The key question about Clegg's comments is whether Clegg is indicating that the Lib Dems would vote down an "illegitimate" Lab/SNP government in the Queens Speech, rather than abstain.

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: Ed Miliband suggested forming coalition government with SNP in 2010 http://t.co/jEeqPu0lfs

Trustworthy source. He probably did though, although back then it would not have been as much of an issue for him, the party or anyone else. The SNP would have been similar to PC and the Greens now - certain to back Labour over a Tory government, but without much muscle to have much influence over policy.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%

YouGov retains its Gold Standard status

What would tomorrow's polls require approximately for the Tories to take the ELBOW lead?

Wonderful old scoreboard in Grenada. Although they have the wrong flag for England.

Danny565 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%

YouGov retains its Gold Standard status

What would tomorrow's polls require approximately for the Tories to take the ELBOW lead?

Massive Tory leads

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

The objective circumstances are extremely interesting, with coalitions, pacts, nationalism and economic circumstances, none of which any major party wants to talk about.

The personality/scandal stuff has been euthanised by the parties through their ultra-cautious campaigning in business parks and out-of-town sheds.

chestnut said:

The situation here in West Essex is?

West Essex? Isn't that those five boroughs now making up NE Greater London?

tyson said:

Fenster said:

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

Agreed. I couldn't play the sport for toffee, but I love watching it.

Not a fan of T20 though.

T20 is pointless.
I captained my school team in 6th form against Manchester Grammar when Michael Atherton was playing. We got thrashed, obviously.

Did he dry the ball with some dirt from his pocket?

@MrHarryCole: Tories up the rhetoric in new poster: http://t.co/0nacwf4JJz

YouGov ... EICIPM

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

It's an intriguing deadlock. People think it's dull because it's deadlocked, but it's fascinating nonetheless, just not fascinating AND mobile. It may be that the really interesting part will come after May 7.

I've noticed the mainstream news has kind of given up on making the coverage seem interesting. There's just not very much to say really.
Losing the weekly debates has been a huge loss. As the US elections show, they electrify the campaigns, and give everyone something to focus on- even though they probably have a negligible effect. Without debates we have soundbites, more soundbites, and soundbites.

nigel4england said:

DaemonBarber said:

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

It is the absolute pinnacle of sporting achievement.

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

tyson said:

Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
There is a review....

I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.

The length of time accentuates the drama, allows for more shifts back and forth, I always feel. When you have a five day game that can still come down to the final hour, the final overs, the suspense is mesmerizing. You can relax, listening and tuning in on and off for days as a pleasant distraction but nothing more, then passages of frantic activity turn things on its head and days of effort from an entire team can pay off or come to nothing. Such glory.

It is beautiful.

The 2005 Ashes was probably sport at it's very pinnacle, the drama was unbelievable. Yet in spite of the hostilities the sportsmanship was incredible, Flintoff consoling Lee the perfect example, but in another Test Lee ran round the boundary to shake hands with Strauss as he was walking back to the pavilion after a heroic innings.

Even the word pavilion suits the grace of the sport.

Ponting's century at Old Trafford was unbelievable.

And Shane Warne took 40 wickets in the series and lost! Remarkable.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeanT said:

Is it too early to say that, without the useless, boozy, sheep-tupping Aussies and Kiwi "soldiers" we'd probably have won in Gallipoli and succcessfully wrapped up WW1 in 1917?

On the commemorative day for the large numbers of Aussie and Kiwi soldiers who died in Gallipol I dont think that comment is appropriate

More than that, Galilipoli was largely a British gig anyway, supported by the French with the ANZACs as a distant third place. Go look at the numbers and the casualty lists.

It's a great what if though, if Turkey had been knocked out early, it's possible that Russia could have been saved, no revolution, no Soviet Union ? Allies would still have imposed shocking reparations on Germany.

Maybe there is still a Hitler, but he faces a weakish Tsar who hasn't industrialised, not the brutal Stalin. Perhaps Germany would have been the leading communist power.

History turns on the smallest things.

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

It's an intriguing deadlock. People think it's dull because it's deadlocked, but it's fascinating nonetheless, just not fascinating AND mobile. It may be that the really interesting part will come after May 7.

Agreed. People who are bored by this aren't thinking hard enough. Britain stands on the edge of a decision which could, theoretically, 1. eject us from the EU, 2, wipe out all major parties in Scotland, 3. help to dissolve the UK entirely, 4, see the Libs reduced, for the first time in democratic history, to 4th place, 5. see endless Scots Labour bigwigs retired overnight, 6, see the emergence of a major UK-wide party for the first time in decades... and on and on.

All of the above is very possible. And more. Yet all is unpredictable because the polls are all over the place.

I find it hard to understand pb anoraks who are *bored*. What do they want? Civil insurrection??

To be pedantic I'm sure we've been 4th before, the yellow taxi days surely had us behind the NI parties.

Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/591717616848400385

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/591717616848400385

He only needs the cash for some Milk Tray for Nicola.

You should be writing the tories' strap lines

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

It's an intriguing deadlock. People think it's dull because it's deadlocked, but it's fascinating nonetheless, just not fascinating AND mobile. It may be that the really interesting part will come after May 7.

Agreed. People who are bored by this aren't thinking hard enough. Britain stands on the edge of a decision which could, theoretically, 1. eject us from the EU, 2, wipe out all major parties in Scotland, 3. help to dissolve the UK entirely, 4, see the Libs reduced, for the first time in democratic history, to 4th place, 5. see endless Scots Labour bigwigs retired overnight, 6, see the emergence of a major UK-wide party for the first time in decades... and on and on.

All of the above is very possible. And more. Yet all is unpredictable because the polls are all over the place.

I find it hard to understand pb anoraks who are *bored*. What do they want? Civil insurrection??

All of that is good. Its just the last week, post manifestos, post Blair intervention, no debates, has been a bit bland.

That said here are some ideas
David Miliband intervention
Coulson revelations
Bennett steps down
Nick Clegg gets listened to and taken seriously

Any of them would be good

kjohnw said:

this election is like watching a slow motion car crash as we head into to being governed by the most dangerous prime minister the country has ever known

That's exactly how I felt in 1997. I don't think Miliband (or any present front line politician) is even a fraction as dangerous and malignant as the monster who was elected PM that year. Nobody possibly could be.

LD MPs hoping to persuade Labour supporters to hold their noses and vote Yellow to keep the Blues out will not like Clegg's comments - they are most unhelpful - but given he is up against a strong Labour challenge I guess they are understandable. It looks like he wants the LDs to be the FDP (as was) to the Tory CDU. It'll probably mean the LDs won't get close to 50 seats again for many a long year. Still, having them in government alongside the Tories is infinitely better than having the Tories in charge alone - or in alliance with the DUP.

As for UKIP. If they end up getting 10% plus of the vote it will be a stunning achievement, especially given the comparative lack of coverage in the press and on TV.

The Tories are expediting Scottish independence...

The irony is that they call themselves the Conservative and Unionist Party.

SeanT said:

corporeal said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

It's an intriguing deadlock. People think it's dull because it's deadlocked, but it's fascinating nonetheless, just not fascinating AND mobile. It may be that the really interesting part will come after May 7.

Agreed. People who are bored by this aren't thinking hard enough. Britain stands on the edge of a decision which could, theoretically, 1. eject us from the EU, 2, wipe out all major parties in Scotland, 3. help to dissolve the UK entirely, 4, see the Libs reduced, for the first time in democratic history, to 4th place, 5. see endless Scots Labour bigwigs retired overnight, 6, see the emergence of a major UK-wide party for the first time in decades... and on and on.

All of the above is very possible. And more. Yet all is unpredictable because the polls are all over the place.

I find it hard to understand pb anoraks who are *bored*. What do they want? Civil insurrection??

To be pedantic I'm sure we've been 4th before, the yellow taxi days surely had us behind the NI parties.

Interesting point. Were you ever behind any individual NI party in both votes and seats?

Genuine question. I find it hard to think you were.

In this election you look almost certain to end up behind UKIP in votes and behind the SNP in seats.

Those were the days when there were effectively no other parties to be fourth behind. There was the odd republican or nationalist, but no party with more than two members at Westminster from 1950 until the UUP and SNP and Plaid Cymru all broke through in 1974.

If I can find the energy I should finally write that post of how 2010 might be the low point in Liberal support ever.

nigel4england said:

tyson said:

Fenster said:

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

Agreed. I couldn't play the sport for toffee, but I love watching it.

Not a fan of T20 though.

T20 is pointless.
I captained my school team in 6th form against Manchester Grammar when Michael Atherton was playing. We got thrashed, obviously.

I read that Phil Neville was rated a better prospect than Atherton but chose football.

The Neville brothers were both promising cricketers.
I loved Atherton's nickname at Lancashire- FEC- which stood for Future England Captain, or....

I can remember one time facing the prospect of Paul Allott- who was a few years older. When we were waiting to bat we were shaking with fear. Noone wanted to go in- we were literally passing the pads around.

I cannot imagine what it felt like to face that West Indian attack of the 80's- Marshall, Holding, Garner, Roberts and Croft as a backup. Holding and Roberts often opened, and then on came Marshall. It makes me wince just thinking about it.

murali_s said:

The Tories are expediting Scottish independence...

The irony is that they call themselves the Conservative and Unionist Party.

Good, if Salmond had been half as good as he thought, they would already be gone.

murali_s said:

The Tories are expediting Scottish independence...

The irony is that they call themselves the Conservative and Unionist Party.

What would you have them do? The thing leading to Scottish independence is an SNP landslide; nothing the Tories could do - which amounts to seeing if the English will get a bit mad - will make a difference to that fundamental fact.

This line that the Tories are somehow causing this situation is beyond me. Are they making it better, from a unionist perspective? Not really. But saying some mean words in a GE campaign, which will not affect how the vote in Scotland is going, will not make it any worse. The SNP surge came on far too late (or was noticed far too late) for even those unionists so inclined (and many were and would not be in any case) to contemplate presenting a united unionist front (either single candidates or, more likely, just an acceptance of agreeing to tactically vote across the unionist parties), which is surely the only thing that could have helped stem the tide.

Tories being mean isn't expediting anything - it is merely a symptom of the current situation.

EPG said:

SeanT said:

corporeal said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

It's an intriguing deadlock. People think it's dull because it's deadlocked, but it's fascinating nonetheless, just not fascinating AND mobile. It may be that the really interesting part will come after May 7.

Agreed. People who are bored by this aren't thinking hard enough. Britain stands on the edge of a decision which could, theoretically, 1. eject us from the EU, 2, wipe out all major parties in Scotland, 3. help to dissolve the UK entirely, 4, see the Libs reduced, for the first time in democratic history, to 4th place, 5. see endless Scots Labour bigwigs retired overnight, 6, see the emergence of a major UK-wide party for the first time in decades... and on and on.

All of the above is very possible. And more. Yet all is unpredictable because the polls are all over the place.

I find it hard to understand pb anoraks who are *bored*. What do they want? Civil insurrection??

To be pedantic I'm sure we've been 4th before, the yellow taxi days surely had us behind the NI parties.

Interesting point. Were you ever behind any individual NI party in both votes and seats?

Genuine question. I find it hard to think you were.

In this election you look almost certain to end up behind UKIP in votes and behind the SNP in seats.

Those were the days when there were effectively no other parties to be fourth behind. There was the odd republican or nationalist, but no party with more than two members at Westminster from 1950 until the UUP and SNP and Plaid Cymru all broke through in 1974.

Oops - I forgot the Vanguard Unionist Progressive Party also won 3 seats in 1974.

nigel4england said:

DaemonBarber said:

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

It is the absolute pinnacle of sporting achievement.

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

tyson said:

Is anyone else watching the cricket? Two teams with pedestrian bowlers on slow wickets. It's still worth watching mind- UKIP cricket, a throwback to a different era when no team ever won a match.
I've tried to explain test cricket to Italians. It baffles them. 5 days of 6-7 hours play a day, and often ends up as a draw They don't get the point.
There is a review....

I'm listening to the cricket. The whole point of cricket is it's like real life. You have boring passages of play and exciting ones. You need the boring bits to appreciate the exciting bits. Maybe the Italians would understand that way of explaining it.

The length of time accentuates the drama, allows for more shifts back and forth, I always feel. When you have a five day game that can still come down to the final hour, the final overs, the suspense is mesmerizing. You can relax, listening and tuning in on and off for days as a pleasant distraction but nothing more, then passages of frantic activity turn things on its head and days of effort from an entire team can pay off or come to nothing. Such glory.

It is beautiful.

The 2005 Ashes was probably sport at it's very pinnacle, the drama was unbelievable. Yet in spite of the hostilities the sportsmanship was incredible, Flintoff consoling Lee the perfect example, but in another Test Lee ran round the boundary to shake hands with Strauss as he was walking back to the pavilion after a heroic innings.

Even the word pavilion suits the grace of the sport.

The last day of the Oval test with England teetering I finished a meeting at the Imperial business school and started watching the Pietersen stand with Ashley Giles in an empty coffee bar there. Soon a couple of faculty members stopped by, started watching and couldn't leave; then more and more people arrived until the place was packed and utterly transfixed: silence and intent TV stares as we all counted down the overs until we knew we could relax.

Pietersen was unbelievable, but Giles was just heroic to stick with him and to go on when he was out. Giles got so much stick from the Australians and parts of the press, but at Trent Bridge and then again at the Oval he saw England home. The King of Spain - true grit, not much turn and a real hero that summer.

murali_s said:

The Tories are expediting Scottish independence...

The irony is that they call themselves the Conservative and Unionist Party.

On which day did the SNP say something positive about the Tory Party.

It is an election, parties are allowed to attack each other in a verbal not Prescott sense.

I think I am going to watch more travel, sport and documentary programmes and ignore politics until Friday 8th May and tune in then to see what happened - and by the way I have ditched you gov surveys as they seem pointless

nigel4england said:

tyson said:

nigel4england said:

tyson said:

Fenster said:

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

Agreed. I couldn't play the sport for toffee, but I love watching it.

Not a fan of T20 though.

T20 is pointless.
I captained my school team in 6th form against Manchester Grammar when Michael Atherton was playing. We got thrashed, obviously.

I read that Phil Neville was rated a better prospect than Atherton but chose football.

The Neville brothers were both promising cricketers.
I loved Atherton's nickname at Lancashire- FEC- which stood for Future England Captain, or....

I can remember one time facing the prospect of Paul Allott- who was a few years older. When we were waiting to bat we were shaking with fear. Noone wanted to go in- we were literally passing the pads around.

I cannot imagine what it felt like to face that West Indian attack of the 80's- Marshall, Holding, Garner, Roberts and Croft as a backup. Holding and Roberts often opened, and then on came Marshall. It makes me wince just thinking about it.

I played both cricket and football against Mike Gatting, who was a goalkeeper at school.

I loved watching Gatting bat. He wasn't the most elegant, but he had a great hook.

Danny565 said:

SeanT said:

corporeal said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

Freggles said:

Is it just me or has the election gotten boring in the last 7 days or so?
Of course there is still the mathematical uncertainty, but the manifestos were a dud. Where is our bigotgate or Cleggmania?

It's just you. This is the most intriguing election, for so many reasons, in many decades. Anyone who claims otherwise is a twit, with zero hindsight.

It's an intriguing deadlock. People think it's dull because it's deadlocked, but it's fascinating nonetheless, just not fascinating AND mobile. It may be that the really interesting part will come after May 7.

Agreed. People who are bored by this aren't thinking hard enough. Britain stands on the edge of a decision which could, theoretically, 1. eject us from the EU, 2, wipe out all major parties in Scotland, 3. help to dissolve the UK entirely, 4, see the Libs reduced, for the first time in democratic history, to 4th place, 5. see endless Scots Labour bigwigs retired overnight, 6, see the emergence of a major UK-wide party for the first time in decades... and on and on.

All of the above is very possible. And more. Yet all is unpredictable because the polls are all over the place.

I find it hard to understand pb anoraks who are *bored*. What do they want? Civil insurrection??

To be pedantic I'm sure we've been 4th before, the yellow taxi days surely had us behind the NI parties.

Interesting point. Were you ever behind any individual NI party in both votes and seats?

Genuine question. I find it hard to think you were.

In this election you look almost certain to end up behind UKIP in votes and behind the SNP in seats.

Wikipedia says the Lib Dems (Liberals) have indeed never come worse than 3rd in seats before, and definitely never in votes.

They also now look a shoo-in for their worst voteshare since 1970, when they got 7.5%. Since then they've never polled less than 14%, which now looks like a pipe dream for them.

1950

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think I am going to watch more travel, sport and documentary programmes and ignore politics until Friday 8th May and tune in then to see what happened - and by the way I have ditched you gov surveys as they seem pointless

Unless the outcome is indeed within 1-2 points of the 33/35 split they have been consistently showing.

It only seems to have happened in the last few weeks when they changed their methods but opinion polls will be 'pointless' anyway after the 7th May until another election looms into sight

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think I am going to watch more travel, sport and documentary programmes and ignore politics until Friday 8th May and tune in then to see what happened - and by the way I have ditched you gov surveys as they seem pointless

Unless the outcome is indeed within 1-2 points of the 33/35 split they have been consistently showing.

It only seems to have happened in the last few weeks when they changed their methods but opinion polls will be 'pointless' anyway after the 7th May until another election looms into sight

Which might be 6 months.

surbiton said:

The election is now not between Tory vs Labour but between the methods of Yougov, Populus vs Ashcroft, ICM

One group will turn out to be wrong.

Unless they converge in the next 10 days

surbiton said:

The election is now not between Tory vs Labour but between the methods of Yougov, Populus vs Ashcroft, ICM

One group will turn out to be wrong.

Newsnight reporting tonight that the Tory high command are upbeat about their Jock bashing strategy, and even Labour privately are admitting it is working.

tyson said:

surbiton said:

The election is now not between Tory vs Labour but between the methods of Yougov, Populus vs Ashcroft, ICM

One group will turn out to be wrong.

Newsnight reporting tonight that the Tory high command are upbeat about their Jock bashing strategy, and even Labour privately are admitting it is working.

Does Nick (P) ?????

I've noticed that ElectionForecast and Newsnight Index have been giving almost identical figures in the last few days. I thought they might be one and the same forecast but they can't be because there are slight differences of one or two seats. Maybe they are the same base forecast with minor tweakings.

To my delight my giant electoral computer has spat out Con 279 Lab 279 tonight. What are the odds on no party reaching 280 seats?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

KentRising said:

Test cricket is the greatest sport in the world.

Test Cricket is the most boring sport in the world. And Golf.

I agree with you about golf.

surbiton said:

philiph said:

murali_s said:

The Tories are expediting Scottish independence...

The irony is that they call themselves the Conservative and Unionist Party.

On which day did the SNP say something positive about the Tory Party.

It is an election, parties are allowed to attack each other in a verbal not Prescott sense.

My Scotland Manager came to see me today. In England, he would be a Tory. He was saying even the referendum result was now irrelevant given the Tories, in their language, have more or less said that the SNP [ by implication the Scots ] are a pariah nation / people.

The only way the "Union" can survive is if the Tories lose; if they win , thanks to the EU referendum, another can of worms will be opened and if Scotland is not given a separate referendum if England votes to come out , then I think there will be riots.

With an SNP landslide I cannot see how another Indy referendum will not come at some point, EU referendum or not. I still take issue with the 'SNP [by implication the Scots]' comments. Some very few might go so far, but it is reasonable to make a distinction to how SNP MPs may not act in the best interests of the whole union (in addition to their duties to their own particular constituents) because they don't care about the union, and how if they have the definitive influence in this election that is more of an issue than when only a handful, contrasted with just a regular Scottish MP. If the Scots are happy with them as their choice, fine, a way will have to be found to work everything out, but it is as legitimate for other parties to suggest they would be a bad choice, as it is legitimate for the Scots to ignore that suggestion and be represented by them in Westminster.

surbiton said:

AndyJS said:

I've noticed that ElectionForecast and Newsnight Index have been giving almost identical figures in the last few days. I thought they might be one and the same forecast but they can't be because there are slight differences of one or two seats.

Aren't they computed by the same person ? The models might be slightly different.

I think they are the same- Election Forecast will fall into line tomorrow when they update the database.