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  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    East Worthing and Shoreham, and Forest of Dean are not actually seats were UKIP where expected to do well.

    So apart from those 2 out of 10 seats not being on the likely UKIP seats, this polls is pretty bad all the way down to the specific constituency question and the 2010 breakdown, in which UKIP is surprisingly doing the same or worse in those seats than the national average.

    It is very surprising that UKIP are not doing better in their targets than nationally.

    When can we start writing NIC ?
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    I have posted on here consistently that UKIP would get 1 seat max.

    Ave it - the one who knows!
  • JohnLilburne
    JohnLilburne Posts: 6,879
    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    chestnut said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    chestnut said:

    So a Con-Lab swing of 4.5% in largely southern seats.

    A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).

    11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.5: ICM (last six)
    6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
    6.5 Yougov (last 10)
    5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    5.4 Comres (last 6)

    It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.

    Not sure I understand your data.
    Apologies.

    They are the Con-Lab swing in the Southern region based on averaged subsamples for those six pollsters.

    So, Ipsos are currently showing an 11.7% swing from Con-Lab across the south in their national polls, ICM 7.5% etc.

    This poll is below all the national samples (but they include london). However, Ipsos stands out like a sore thumb with a way above average swing to Labour.
    No probs. I doubt the swings are quite that large, but thanks for posting.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    what do TPD's do when they become TPD+P45?

    A future KIPPER MEP surely....
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2015
    ''It is very surprising that UKIP are not doing better in their targets than nationally.''

    Not if UKIP are doing better than expected in their labour target seats.

    We have some very anecdotal evidence they might be.

    Why have none of those been polled?

    It would be ironic if UKIP lost South Thanet but won Rotherham
  • saddened
    saddened Posts: 2,245
    Millsy said:

    So who still thinks Ukip will win more than 2 or 3 seats?

    It starts with Mike and ends with K. He has drunk deeply of the kool aide.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    dyedwoolie said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    The methodological guts of Elections Etc. - of particular note I thought was that they do detect a first-time incumbency bonus:

    4. Use Ashcroft constituency polls and individual-level data kindly provided by YouGov to identify constituencies where parties are doing particularly well or particularly badly, and apply adjustments to the hypothetical results accordingly.

    The most important factors within England and Wales are to do with incumbency.

    Those Conservative MPs who took their seat from an MP from another party in 2010 are doing a couple of points better than other Tory candidates. This seems to be an instance of the classic “sophomore surge”, which is common in the US and also seemed to help many first-term Labour MPs hold on in 2001 despite a swing to the Conservatives.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/methodology-for-the-electionsetc-com-forecast/

    That does not chime with what Nick Palmer is hearing on the doorstep, so it must be wrong.
    To be fair "re-treads" may be in a separate category; we don't know.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Casino_Royale said:

    chestnut said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    chestnut said:

    So a Con-Lab swing of 4.5% in largely southern seats.

    A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).

    11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.5: ICM (last six)
    6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
    6.5 Yougov (last 10)
    5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    5.4 Comres (last 6)

    It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.

    Not sure I understand your data.
    Apologies.

    They are the Con-Lab swing in the Southern region based on averaged subsamples for those six pollsters.

    So, Ipsos are currently showing an 11.7% swing from Con-Lab across the south in their national polls, ICM 7.5% etc.

    This poll is below all the national samples (but they include london). However, Ipsos stands out like a sore thumb with a way above average swing to Labour.
    No probs. I doubt the swings are quite that large, but thanks for posting.
    If Labour is getting 11.7% swings in the South, they must be building up huge majorities in places like Guildford!!!!!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    East Worthing and Shoreham, and Forest of Dean are not actually seats were UKIP where expected to do well.

    So apart from those 2 out of 10 seats not being on the likely UKIP seats, this polls is pretty bad all the way down to the specific constituency question and the 2010 breakdown, in which UKIP is surprisingly doing the same or worse in those seats than the national average.

    It is very surprising that UKIP are not doing better in their targets than nationally.

    When can we start writing NIC ?
    I don't know, this poll conflicts too much with previous polls from other companies to make an accurate assessment, including the fact that it doesn't break down results by seat.
    So not until there is a follow up poll that confirms the results.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    Torbay update: Tories in the middle of hand-delivering personal letters to all 9,500 postal voters. Postal votes go out Friday, but delivery should be largely complete tomorrow.

    Then back to canvassing. Not so much inter-action with voters today, but there was a lady who was going to vote LibDem "because they are trying so hard to get an In/Out Referendum on Europe". Quickly put her right on that! Knock one off the LibDem total.

    Another lady in an old folks home asked what I was doing. When I explained I was delivering letters about postal votes, but before I could add for which party she said (verbatim) "People would have to be MAD to vote for this current Labour Party. I usually vote Liberal, but this time I shall have to vote Conservative to keep out that frightful Miliband chap.

    I'm 98 you know!"

    Knock another one off the LibDem total.

    And just an observation. I had expected that the LibDems would have made great efforts to get the postal vote sewn up over the past four elections. But of the hundreds of voters I visited today - only two posters in windows. One LibDem, one Green. Found that surprising.

  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Upped my stake selling kippers in cannock chase.



    UKIP

    1st 20%
    2nd 10%
    3rd or lower: 70%

    Which makes them a sell @ 8 (spreadex again).

    Anyone disagree with my probabilities?

    (I fear, if anything, I'm being a little too generous with the kippers chances of 1st)
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2015
    Plato said:

    Clive Merrison in A Study In Scarlet, assume most of these are on YouTube.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGLEjHbBmmg

    He looks nothing like Jeremy Brett Sherlock Holmes!
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    What strikes me in that article is how idiotic the anti-Farage campaigners are.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
    Totally agree.

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    If I wasn't an atheist, I'd say God Bless You!
    MarqueeMark said:

    Torbay update: Tories in the middle of hand-delivering personal letters to all 9,500 postal voters. Postal votes go out Friday, but delivery should be largely complete tomorrow.

    Then back to canvassing. Not so much inter-action with voters today, but there was a lady who was going to vote LibDem "because they are trying so hard to get an In/Out Referendum on Europe". Quickly put her right on that! Knock one off the LibDem total.

    Another lady in an old folks home asked what I was doing. When I explained I was delivering letters about postal votes, but before I could add for which party she said (verbatim) "People would have to be MAD to vote for this current Labour Party. I usually vote Liberal, but this time I shall have to vote Conservative to keep out that frightful Miliband chap.

    I'm 98 you know!"

    Knock another one off the LibDem total.

    And just an observation. I had expected that the LibDems would have made great efforts to get the postal vote sewn up over the past four elections. But of the hundreds of voters I visited today - only two posters in windows. One LibDem, one Green. Found that surprising.

  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    I don't know what boundary changes there have been but Labour held half of these seats after the 2005 election
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MarqueeMark said:

    Torbay update: Tories in the middle of hand-delivering personal letters to all 9,500 postal voters. Postal votes go out Friday, but delivery should be largely complete tomorrow.

    Then back to canvassing. Not so much inter-action with voters today, but there was a lady who was going to vote LibDem "because they are trying so hard to get an In/Out Referendum on Europe". Quickly put her right on that! Knock one off the LibDem total.

    Another lady in an old folks home asked what I was doing. When I explained I was delivering letters about postal votes, but before I could add for which party she said (verbatim) "People would have to be MAD to vote for this current Labour Party. I usually vote Liberal, but this time I shall have to vote Conservative to keep out that frightful Miliband chap.

    I'm 98 you know!"

    Knock another one off the LibDem total.

    And just an observation. I had expected that the LibDems would have made great efforts to get the postal vote sewn up over the past four elections. But of the hundreds of voters I visited today - only two posters in windows. One LibDem, one Green. Found that surprising.

    Not that surprising that 90+ year olds vote Tory, the surprise will be to find a 40 year old exLD voting Tory.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Pah, when you can name the spaniel in Hound of the Baskervilles without Wiki or Google...

    Serious Sherlock nerd here.
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
    Totally agree.

  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    Speedy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Torbay update: Tories in the middle of hand-delivering personal letters to all 9,500 postal voters. Postal votes go out Friday, but delivery should be largely complete tomorrow.

    Then back to canvassing. Not so much inter-action with voters today, but there was a lady who was going to vote LibDem "because they are trying so hard to get an In/Out Referendum on Europe". Quickly put her right on that! Knock one off the LibDem total.

    Another lady in an old folks home asked what I was doing. When I explained I was delivering letters about postal votes, but before I could add for which party she said (verbatim) "People would have to be MAD to vote for this current Labour Party. I usually vote Liberal, but this time I shall have to vote Conservative to keep out that frightful Miliband chap.

    I'm 98 you know!"

    Knock another one off the LibDem total.

    And just an observation. I had expected that the LibDems would have made great efforts to get the postal vote sewn up over the past four elections. But of the hundreds of voters I visited today - only two posters in windows. One LibDem, one Green. Found that surprising.

    Not that surprising that 90+ year olds vote Tory, the surprise will be to find a 40 year old exLD voting Tory.
    Going by the battle of the signs, they are going Green instead. But that works just fine......
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    Millsy said:

    So who still thinks Ukip will win more than 2 or 3 seats?

    I do. Perhaps not many more, but I would hope for at least 5. I may be deluding myself, but there you go.

    Christians in Pakistan are praying for Nigel Farage: http://rt.com/uk/250545-christians-pakistan-ukip-prayers/ So perhaps divine intervention isn't out of the question.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    Plato said:

    Pah, when you can name the spaniel in Hound of the Baskervilles without Wiki or Google...

    Serious Sherlock nerd here.

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
    Totally agree.

    I'm not a nerd on the subject but I have read them all. I inherited some hardbacks from a great aunt in which she'd also stored newspaper clippings when there was any Sherlock related news.

    I think to some extent you're always attached to the initial persona you link to the character, and for me that was Brett.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Artist said:

    Going on the UKIP Ashcroft figures: Boston 35%, Thurrock 36%, Great Yarmouth 31%, S Basildon 29%, Castle Point 36%

    That'd mean UKIP are only averaging 4.3% in the other five. Pretty unlikely.

    The poll could also indicate the Tories are building up big leads in their safe seats though.

    Taken together with the SW Lib Dem marginals poll ComRes is certainly more friendly to the Tories than Ashcroft.

    I have a vague recollection of ComRes doing marginal polling for GE2010. I wonder how well that turned out?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Pong said:

    Upped my stake selling kippers in cannock chase.



    UKIP

    1st 20%
    2nd 10%
    3rd or lower: 70%

    Which makes them a sell @ 8 (spreadex again).

    Anyone disagree with my probabilities?

    (I fear, if anything, I'm being a little too generous with the kippers chances of 1st)

    Cannock Chase suspended ;)
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Kalman-filtered news from Scotland...

    SNP 48.9%
    Lab 25.4%
    Con 15.6%
    LD 4.2%

    Seats UNS/Probabilistic

    SNP 52-54
    Lab 4-6
    Con 0-1
    LD 1-2

    Kalman thinks it has detected a small uptick in the Tories, and is now not half as certain as it was about the Tory vote.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Scotland.PNG
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    Who would have thought the BBC would have a whole online news story dedicated to Salmond's "joke"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32409909

    Currently one of the most-read stories on the BBC news website as well
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    What strikes me in that article is how idiotic the anti-Farage campaigners are.
    It is completely counterproductive. Whilst I am sure a few people are won over I would bet that it is highly annoying to the majority of people.

    As a Kipper I want UKIP to do well but it will be very very satisfying to see the Dan Hodges and Owen Jones of this country get proved wrong.

    If UKIP do badly and fade away these subversive groups will turn their attention to the Tories. It has already happened in constituencies such as Sittingbourne and Sheppey where posters of Gordon Henderson have had Hitler moustaches drawn on them. Anyone who does not agree with what their idea of a perfect commie society looks like will be attacked.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Ave_it said:

    I have posted on here consistently that UKIP would get 1 seat max.

    Ave it - the one who knows!

    ... and one seat min, too. Clacton
  • kingbongo
    kingbongo Posts: 393
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Plato said:

    Pah, when you can name the spaniel in Hound of the Baskervilles without Wiki or Google...

    Serious Sherlock nerd here.

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
    Totally agree.

    I'm not a nerd on the subject but I have read them all. I inherited some hardbacks from a great aunt in which she'd also stored newspaper clippings when there was any Sherlock related news.

    I think to some extent you're always attached to the initial persona you link to the character, and for me that was Brett.
    The best Sherlock Holmes is Vasiliy Livanov - the soviet TV series is the most brilliant homage to what they thought the British were like and the portrayal of Holmes is masterful - for me Brett was great but somewhat too melodramatic at times
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    RodCrosby said:

    Kalman-filtered news from Scotland...

    SNP 48.9%
    Lab 25.4%
    Con 15.6%
    LD 4.2%

    Seats UNS/Probabilistic

    SNP 52-54
    Lab 4-6
    Con 0-1
    LD 1-2

    Kalman thinks it has detected a small uptick in the Tories, and is now not half as certain as it was about the Tory vote.
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Scotland.PNG

    Long live Kalman !
  • calum
    calum Posts: 3,046
    Michael Gove has been out and about in Aberdeen, if I were him I'd be keeping quiet about the Tories winning up to 4 seats in Scotland due to tactical voting by SLAB/SLID supporters.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-tories-back-with-a-bang-michael-gove-1-3751419

    I think SLAB and SLID are about to become zombie parties much like the Scottish Tories with core support levels below what's required to compete in a FPTP system. I agree with Gove's view that the Scottish Tories could soon be level pegging with SLAB, unfortunately this will be more due to SLAB's support slumping not the Tories surging.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Upped my stake selling kippers in cannock chase.



    UKIP

    1st 20%
    2nd 10%
    3rd or lower: 70%

    Which makes them a sell @ 8 (spreadex again).

    Anyone disagree with my probabilities?

    (I fear, if anything, I'm being a little too generous with the kippers chances of 1st)

    Cannock Chase suspended ;)
    Yeah, annoying that.

    I note SPIN suspended their constituency markets (where UKIP are in contention) @ 5.55pm. I understand they don't want to leave themselves exposed, but surely it's just a case of adjusting your prices and getting the markets back out there asap so (over)eager punters can bet?

    They're just sending business to their rivals IMO.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    MP_SE said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    What strikes me in that article is how idiotic the anti-Farage campaigners are.
    It is completely counterproductive. Whilst I am sure a few people are won over I would bet that it is highly annoying to the majority of people.

    As a Kipper I want UKIP to do well but it will be very very satisfying to see the Dan Hodges and Owen Jones of this country get proved wrong.

    If UKIP do badly and fade away these subversive groups will turn their attention to the Tories. It has already happened in constituencies such as Sittingbourne and Sheppey where posters of Gordon Henderson have had Hitler moustaches drawn on them. Anyone who does not agree with what their idea of a perfect commie society looks like will be attacked.
    This is SO SO true.

    And the PC brigade and Common Purpose etc. etc. This is why it infuriates me when I hear PB Tories basking in their current 'detoxification' and using the exact same play book against UKIP that was once used against them. If UKIP fail, they'll be next. Look at Clarkson (I agree with his sacking but he's been on borrowed time for a while). Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for THEE Bernard.
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    edited April 2015
    Oh, and after the 1997 election Labour held 7 of these 10 seats so they're not all exactly true-blue areas. And chances are Labour will never hold any of them again (edit: actually they might retake Thurrock)
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    Not the best selection of seats according to Mr Goodwin:


    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/590935737153036289

    Should have opted for two constituency polls like South Thanet and Thurrock. Would be far more interesting.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Norm said:

    dr_spyn said:

    MP_SE said:

    Norm said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
    If Farage loses in Thanet then you may be right. Suggestions from speaking to activists in Rochester and Strood that Kelly Tolhurst will capture the seat from Reckless.
    A shame as Tolhurst comes across as moronic. The hustings before the by-election was painful, completely out of her depth.
    She seemed to be absolutely hopeless at the By-election. Was surprised she was given a second chance.
    She is genuinely local and has an attractive look and personality which seems to go down well with voters. She also has had the benefit of another five months in the job as a candidate in which time she has heavily worked the constituency. In the by-election she was inexperienced at this level which I agree showed up at times and despite the huge resources supplied by central office only had one month after her "primary" to make an impact against the entrenched Reckless. Voters were determined to make their point which they duly did although his majority was less than expected. Nothing is certain of course but personally I'm expecting a Tory win this time despite Reckless's incumbency advantage.
    Kelly Tolhurst was or is a councillor, but she didn't not appear to be up to scratch when she tried to unseat Reckless. I would be surprised if she stays the course as MP.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    Upped my stake selling kippers in cannock chase.



    UKIP

    1st 20%
    2nd 10%
    3rd or lower: 70%

    Which makes them a sell @ 8 (spreadex again).

    Anyone disagree with my probabilities?

    (I fear, if anything, I'm being a little too generous with the kippers chances of 1st)

    Cannock Chase suspended ;)
    Yeah, annoying that.

    I note SPIN suspended their constituency markets (where UKIP are in contention) @ 5.55pm. I understand they don't want to leave themselves exposed, but surely it's just a case of adjusting your prices and getting the markets back out there asap so (over)eager punters can bet?

    They're just sending business to their rivals IMO.
    Dunno, I sold @ £5 a pt and it was suspended straight after.

    Bought Labour in Camborne, Bought the Tories in Stirling and Grimsby with them too - so its looking good.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    The CPS which has let Janner off ? The same CPS which last week took a Rotherham woman to court for excessively pruning her hedge ?

    The IPCC which took four years to investigate the Rochdale police only to discover that the only person against whom action needed to be taken had conveniently retired ?

    OFSTED which kept approving Rotherham council and has now admitted it didn't know what it was doing ?

    HMIC which had described the SYP as 'one of the most improved in the country' ?

    This country has an alphabet soup of 'three monkeys' style regulatory bodies whose chief aim is to protect themselves and the organisations they are supposed to be regulating.

    Not only in local councils and law / justice but in areas such as banking and finance as well. Think of all the scandals in that sector since 2007, the latest of which is now Tesco - their auditors clearly did a great job.

    And while all the fatcats, in both the public and private sectors, continue to be protected from the consequences of their incompetence, misconduct and even criminality the rest of us have endless, and often mindless, rules and regulations imposed on us by meddling government with guaranteed fines if things are not done in the specified manner or specified time.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    logical_song said:


    Ave_it said:

    I have posted on here consistently that UKIP would get 1 seat max.

    Ave it - the one who knows!

    ... and one seat min, too. Clacton
    UKIP has still never had a gain. If they only keep Clacton with a strong encumbent MP personal vote then that has to be disappointing for smoked Kippers.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    People really should have some Sittingbourne & Sheppey Tories @ 3-10 in their constituency bets imo.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    another_richard said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    The CPS which has let Janner off ?
    I loved the barbed comment in one of the papers regarding his "dementia."

    'His friend, illusionist Uri Geller, confirmed the diagnosis...'
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    kingbongo said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Plato said:

    Pah, when you can name the spaniel in Hound of the Baskervilles without Wiki or Google...

    Serious Sherlock nerd here.

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
    Totally agree.

    I'm not a nerd on the subject but I have read them all. I inherited some hardbacks from a great aunt in which she'd also stored newspaper clippings when there was any Sherlock related news.

    I think to some extent you're always attached to the initial persona you link to the character, and for me that was Brett.
    The best Sherlock Holmes is Vasiliy Livanov - the soviet TV series is the most brilliant homage to what they thought the British were like and the portrayal of Holmes is masterful - for me Brett was great but somewhat too melodramatic at times
    Have you seen that series ?

    I've heard it is very good as well and have wondered how easy it was to get hold of.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Speedy said:

    East Worthing and Shoreham, and Forest of Dean are not actually seats were UKIP where expected to do well.

    Hmm:

    http://survation.com/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/shortcuts/2014/aug/27/ukip-target-seat-nigel-farage-constituencies-2015-general-election-tory

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11056205/Ukip-to-target-Tory-ministers-seats.html
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Artist said:

    Going on the UKIP Ashcroft figures: Boston 35%, Thurrock 36%, Great Yarmouth 31%, S Basildon 29%, Castle Point 36%

    That'd mean UKIP are only averaging 4.3% in the other five. Pretty unlikely.

    The poll could also indicate the Tories are building up big leads in their safe seats though.

    Taken together with the SW Lib Dem marginals poll ComRes is certainly more friendly to the Tories than Ashcroft.

    I have a vague recollection of ComRes doing marginal polling for GE2010. I wonder how well that turned out?
    I think this was how all marginal polling was conducted before the 2010 General Election rather than at a constituency level.

    They weren't very accurate
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7673406/General-Election-2010-marginal-poll-points-to-Conservative-majority.html
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    another_richard said:

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Why on earth do you continue to post this utter garbage, which can be refuted in 5 seconds using Google?
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ComRes tables.

    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ITV-News_UKIP-Con-held-seats_22-April-2015.pdf

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-ukip-battlegrounds-poll/
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    The average for these ten seats is almost exactly in line with my model plus Ashcroft.

    No surprises. I don't think this poll adds any new info.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Brown might just claw something back for SLAB in the last few weeks, he did well in 2010.


    Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak
    So far Brown has taken a v low key role so far in this campaign doing small events for candidates, I reckon that's about to change
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    What strikes me in that article is how idiotic the anti-Farage campaigners are.
    It seems to me that the last people you want on your side are "anti-fascists."
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iankatz1000: BREAKING Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of "whipping up English nationalism" http://t.co/V9o406uF9t #newsnightlive
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Barnesian said:

    The average for these ten seats is almost exactly in line with my model plus Ashcroft.

    No surprises. I don't think this poll adds any new info.

    How do you have Cannock Chase on your model ?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Playing the long-game the SNP displacing Labour in Scotland is great news for the Tories.

    Currently the SNP have to be anti-Tory as they're trying to overcome incumbent Labourites. If Labour become as dead as the Tories then the ground game changes completely.

    The DUP know there's no threat from either Labour or the Tories so they can work with or against either of them on a "what's best for NI" (in their eyes) basis. If the SNP dominate Scotland then ultimately the aim becomes less "be anti-Tory" and more "what's best for Scotland". After this election the SNP will be anti-Tory, in a few years time that may not be the case.

    As a Tory I'd far rather Scotland be controlled by SNats than SLAB.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...

    YouGov had half of Labour supporters against a tie-up with the SNP.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    MarqueeMark said:

    Torbay update: Tories in the middle of hand-delivering personal letters to all 9,500 postal voters. Postal votes go out Friday, but delivery should be largely complete tomorrow.

    Then back to canvassing. Not so much inter-action with voters today, but there was a lady who was going to vote LibDem "because they are trying so hard to get an In/Out Referendum on Europe". Quickly put her right on that! Knock one off the LibDem total.

    Another lady in an old folks home asked what I was doing. When I explained I was delivering letters about postal votes, but before I could add for which party she said (verbatim) "People would have to be MAD to vote for this current Labour Party. I usually vote Liberal, but this time I shall have to vote Conservative to keep out that frightful Miliband chap.

    I'm 98 you know!"

    Knock another one off the LibDem total.

    And just an observation. I had expected that the LibDems would have made great efforts to get the postal vote sewn up over the past four elections. But of the hundreds of voters I visited today - only two posters in windows. One LibDem, one Green. Found that surprising.

    That's an impressive workrate.

    But do those hand written letters not go into the bin as quick as all the glossy mass produced ones ?

    Its possible they might even be counterproductive in a "who the hell put my name on their database" sort of manner.

    People are so inundated with crap claiming to help you, the 'get your PPI money back with us' type of thing, that they will often react against anything which purports to help them, even if it is genuine.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089
    RodCrosby said:

    another_richard said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    The CPS which has let Janner off ?
    I loved the barbed comment in one of the papers regarding his "dementia."

    'His friend, illusionist Uri Geller, confirmed the diagnosis...'
    Is their no second opinion in the Janner case? It's totally unacceptable!

  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    another_richard said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit


    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    The CPS which has let Janner off ? The same CPS which last week took a Rotherham woman to court for excessively pruning her hedge ?

    The IPCC which took four years to investigate the Rochdale police only to discover that the only person against whom action needed to be taken had conveniently retired ?

    OFSTED which kept approving Rotherham council and has now admitted it didn't know what it was doing ?

    HMIC which had described the SYP as 'one of the most improved in the country' ?

    This country has an alphabet soup of 'three monkeys' style regulatory bodies whose chief aim is to protect themselves and the organisations they are supposed to be regulating.

    Not only in local councils and law / justice but in areas such as banking and finance as well. Think of all the scandals in that sector since 2007, the latest of which is now Tesco - their auditors clearly did a great job.

    And while all the fatcats, in both the public and private sectors, continue to be protected from the consequences of their incompetence, misconduct and even criminality the rest of us have endless, and often mindless, rules and regulations imposed on us by meddling government with guaranteed fines if things are not done in the specified manner or specified time.
    I've come to the conclusion that corruption is endemic in this country. Not the obvious stuff, like taking bribes, but a far more insidious willingness to look the other way while crimes are being committed, by members of privileged groups, on the understanding that others will overlook your own shortcomings.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: BREAKING Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of "whipping up English nationalism" http://t.co/V9o406uF9t #newsnightlive

    Necromancy
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    What strikes me in that article is how idiotic the anti-Farage campaigners are.
    It seems to me that the last people you want on your side are "anti-fascists."
    Breitbart had a grim piece about Sweden. Their anti-fascists apparently dish out regular beating to those in need of re-education.

    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/04/20/self-loathing-sweden-should-only-welcome-persecuted-immigrants-not-the-persecuting/
  • JEO
    JEO Posts: 3,656
    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    I understand the Home Secretary can direct the CPS to act on major issues of national importance, but I may be incorrect. Certainly it is very shocking some of these revelations: I had no idea the South Yorkshire police were intimidating researchers for example. It does seem sometimes like there's an effort to sweep these child abuse cases under the carpet.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited April 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: BREAKING Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of "whipping up English nationalism" http://t.co/V9o406uF9t #newsnightlive

    I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?

    How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    East Worthing and Shoreham, and Forest of Dean are not actually seats were UKIP where expected to do well.

    So apart from those 2 out of 10 seats not being on the likely UKIP seats, this polls is pretty bad all the way down to the specific constituency question and the 2010 breakdown, in which UKIP is surprisingly doing the same or worse in those seats than the national average.

    It is very surprising that UKIP are not doing better in their targets than nationally.

    Worthing, Shoreham and Forest of Dean are all places where kippers have done well in local elections and by elections as I vaguely recall.

    I said on the Sunday thread that I think UKIP voting is surprisingly evenly spread. I forecast few lost deposits but only a dozen or so seats where they break through 20%.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    So we've had Paddy Ashdown, Gordon Brown, and John Major out !
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    RodCrosby said:

    another_richard said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    The CPS which has let Janner off ?
    I loved the barbed comment in one of the papers regarding his "dementia."

    'His friend, illusionist Uri Geller, confirmed the diagnosis...'
    Perhaps he'll recover from dementia, now that there's no prosecution.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:
    » show previous quotes
    BJO: what do you say now it looks as though Hinchinbrooke Hospital under Circle was nowhere near as sh*te as you were telling us it was?

    Thanks have seen it now. A re-inspection was carried out in January

    After a second assessment of Hinchingbrooke the CQC has now rated the hospital as "requires improvement", but it has not been removed from special measures.

    Hinchingbrooke remained "inadequate" for whether it was well-led

    Or alternatively, what Circle claimed about the initial report was correct?

    The re-inspection occurred before the first report was released (although that was leaked at a very political time).

    You'd almost think it was planned ...
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    "At a small meeting tonight, Gordon Brown has accused David Cameron of stirring up English nationalism to try to win the election, and the SNP of misleading people over their offer to be part of a Labour led administration.

    The former PM told a gathering of fewer than 100 voters in Fife that "the only way they can win is to build resentment in Scotland of the English and resentment in Scotland of the English" and that David Cameron is "whipping up English nationalism".

    What is this English nationalism that Cameron is whipped up?

    Sounds as if Brown is offering the hand of friendship once again.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Gordon Brown?

    It really is Cameron's lucky day.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: BREAKING Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of "whipping up English nationalism" http://t.co/V9o406uF9t #newsnightlive

    Labour accusing anyone of whipping up nationalism shows an incredible lack of self-awareness.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Sean_F said:

    RodCrosby said:

    another_richard said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    The CPS which has let Janner off ?
    I loved the barbed comment in one of the papers regarding his "dementia."

    'His friend, illusionist Uri Geller, confirmed the diagnosis...'
    Perhaps he'll recover from dementia, now that there's no prosecution.
    Then he'll be prosecuted, surely. Refusing to prosecute now doesn't mean it can't be done in the future surely?
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    What strikes me in that article is how idiotic the anti-Farage campaigners are.
    It seems to me that the last people you want on your side are "anti-fascists."
    Breitbart had a grim piece about Sweden. Their anti-fascists apparently dish out regular beating to those in need of re-education.

    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/04/20/self-loathing-sweden-should-only-welcome-persecuted-immigrants-not-the-persecuting/
    anotherDave said:

    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    What strikes me in that article is how idiotic the anti-Farage campaigners are.
    It seems to me that the last people you want on your side are "anti-fascists."
    Breitbart had a grim piece about Sweden. Their anti-fascists apparently dish out regular beating to those in need of re-education.

    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/04/20/self-loathing-sweden-should-only-welcome-persecuted-immigrants-not-the-persecuting/
    My jaw hit the floor when I read this part of the article:

    Mona Sahlin, a former leader of the currently ruling Social Democrats said she hated anything Swedish and that Swedes were jealous of immigrants because they have “a culture, an identity, a history” and that Swedes don’t, and Sweden’s previous Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt said, last December, that Sweden belongs to immigrants, and not to Swedes.
    Thankfully "the left" have someway to go before they reach the levels of self hate expressed in Sweden.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: BREAKING Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of "whipping up English nationalism" http://t.co/V9o406uF9t #newsnightlive

    I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?

    How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
    There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Will be interesting to see if Labour in Scotland win fewer seats than the Tories win in Wales - something that last happened in 1900, i.e. before the Party was founded...

    (^_-)
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    YouGov had half of Labour supporters against a tie-up with the SNP.

    I read a piece by Gerald Warner saying there are two general elections. The virtual poll of the political class and the real contest.

    You think that can't be right. Then you read stuff like this from Bradby....I mean FFS
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    JEO said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    another_richard said:

    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    I understand the Home Secretary can direct the CPS to act on major issues of national importance, but I may be incorrect. Certainly it is very shocking some of these revelations: I had no idea the South Yorkshire police were intimidating researchers for example. It does seem sometimes like there's an effort to sweep these child abuse cases under the carpet.
    My own view is that SYP should be disbanded, like the West Midlands Serious Crime Squad.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    :lol:
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Somewhat off topic but a question about electoral law and expenses. If campaigning organisations are leafleting constituencies targeting specific candidates they oppose during the election is their any control on what they are spending and are they supposed to keep accounts of it for the electoral commission? Is campaigning against something (or someone) covered by the same rules as campaigning for something (or someone)?
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    edited April 2015
    Sean_F said:

    another_richard said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    I'm not sure what they can do, surely it is for the CPS to act?

    The CPS which has let Janner off ? The same CPS which last week took a Rotherham woman to court for excessively pruning her hedge ?

    The IPCC which took four years to investigate the Rochdale police only to discover that the only person against whom action needed to be taken had conveniently retired ?

    OFSTED which kept approving Rotherham council and has now admitted it didn't know what it was doing ?

    HMIC which had described the SYP as 'one of the most improved in the country' ?

    This country has an alphabet soup of 'three monkeys' style regulatory bodies whose chief aim is to protect themselves and the organisations they are supposed to be regulating.

    Not only in local councils and law / justice but in areas such as banking and finance as well. Think of all the scandals in that sector since 2007, the latest of which is now Tesco - their auditors clearly did a great job.

    And while all the fatcats, in both the public and private sectors, continue to be protected from the consequences of their incompetence, misconduct and even criminality the rest of us have endless, and often mindless, rules and regulations imposed on us by meddling government with guaranteed fines if things are not done in the specified manner or specified time.
    I've come to the conclusion that corruption is endemic in this country. Not the obvious stuff, like taking bribes, but a far more insidious willingness to look the other way while crimes are being committed, by members of privileged groups, on the understanding that others will overlook your own shortcomings.
    For every scandal which comes to public light there's likely a dozen others which are kept quiet.

    And when a scandal is revealed the official response is usually to make a scapegoat out of a few nobodies or eccentrics.

    For example in the BBC sex abuse scandals I remember reading (I can't remember where) that the celebrities getting charged were of the 'hairy cornflake' variety whilst 'the great and the good' were being protected.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...

    It could be sold as the first properly UK wide government Lab/SNP/PC/SDLP/DUP. Forget the Greens.
  • kingbongo
    kingbongo Posts: 393
    another_richard said:

    kingbongo said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Plato said:

    Pah, when you can name the spaniel in Hound of the Baskervilles without Wiki or Google...

    Serious Sherlock nerd here.

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
    Totally agree.

    I'm not a nerd on the subject but I have read them all. I inherited some hardbacks from a great aunt in which she'd also stored newspaper clippings when there was any Sherlock related news.

    I think to some extent you're always attached to the initial persona you link to the character, and for me that was Brett.
    The best Sherlock Holmes is Vasiliy Livanov - the soviet TV series is the most brilliant homage to what they thought the British were like and the portrayal of Holmes is masterful - for me Brett was great but somewhat too melodramatic at times
    Have you seen that series ?

    I've heard it is very good as well and have wondered how easy it was to get hold of.
    it's excellent - England looks like parts of St Petersburg natch - a lot are on youtube but being married to a Russian makes getting hold of this sort of thing much easier
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    We (CON) just need to get on the phone to SNP.

    'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.

    Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2015
    Artist said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...

    It could be sold as the first properly UK wide government Lab/SNP/PC/SDLP/DUP. Forget the Greens.
    Not quite - there is no party sticking up for England.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2015
    Artist said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...

    It could be sold as the first properly UK wide government Lab/SNP/PC/SDLP/DUP. Forget the Greens.
    DUP in with that lot ?

    LDs more likely tbh.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited April 2015
    Artist said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...

    It could be sold as the first properly UK wide government Lab/SNP/PC/SDLP/DUP. Forget the Greens.
    SDLP and DUP together?

    Either way, certainly until recently Labour could claim, NI apart, to have had properly UK wide government on their own, given their dominance in Scotland and Wales.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    kle4 said:

    Artist said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...

    It could be sold as the first properly UK wide government Lab/SNP/PC/SDLP/DUP. Forget the Greens.
    SDLP and DUP together?

    Either way, certainly until recently Labour could claim, NI apart, to have had properly UK wide government on their own, given their dominance in Scotland and Wales.
    DUP abstaining is the most I can see with that bunch.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    another_richard said:

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Why on earth do you continue to post this utter garbage, which can be refuted in 5 seconds using Google?
    Really ???

    Theresa May South Yorkshire Police

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bbc+ipcc+rochdale+police&rlz=1C1KMZB_enGB576GB576&oq=bbc+ipcc+rochdale+police&aqs=chrome..69i57.7708j0j8&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8#q=theresa+may+south+yorkshire+police

    Mike Penning South Yorkshire Police - the fourth link I get is to a comment I posted at UKPR

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=bbc+ipcc+rochdale+police&rlz=1C1KMZB_enGB576GB576&oq=bbc+ipcc+rochdale+police&aqs=chrome..69i57.7708j0j8&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8#q=mike+penning+south+yorkshire+police

    I trust you'll have the manners to apologise.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: BREAKING Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of "whipping up English nationalism" http://t.co/V9o406uF9t #newsnightlive

    Necromancy
    The puppeteers skillfully maneuvering the slabbering beast to give it the appearance of sentience...
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one .
    They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Artist said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ITV News ‏@itvnews 1m1 minute ago
    Labour might woo voters by acknowledging a potential SNP alliance, writes @tombradby #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-22/tory-snp-attacks-are-a-scare-tactic-but-labour-could-turn-a-potential-alliance-to-their-advantage/ …

    So Salmond wasn't joking...

    It could be sold as the first properly UK wide government Lab/SNP/PC/SDLP/DUP. Forget the Greens.
    On Saturday the PC candidate in Clwyd South was being helped by a guy with a SNP badge.
  • CD13
    CD13 Posts: 6,386
    I think we all wish Lord Janner a speedy recovery.

    Take the case of Ernest Saunders ... "He was sentenced to five years' imprisonment, but released after 10 months as he was believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's disease, which is incurable. He subsequently made a full recovery."
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Ouch. Was that the most excruciating interview ever? C4 news and Robert Downey.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    1) Not sure why the DEs are so good for UKIP! I thought UKIP was supposed to be middle class workers.

    2) This is a phone poll. Are these done by landlines or include mobiles? Does this affect likelihood to be contactable?
  • maaarsh
    maaarsh Posts: 3,602
    MarkSenior said:

    Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one .
    They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .

    Looks like 7% down to me rather than well up...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Uri Geller certainly had some eclectic friends.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: BREAKING Gordon Brown accuses Cameron of "whipping up English nationalism" http://t.co/V9o406uF9t #newsnightlive

    I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?

    How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
    There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
    Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    CD13 said:

    I think we all wish Lord Janner a speedy recovery.

    Take the case of Ernest Saunders ... "He was sentenced to five years' imprisonment, but released after 10 months as he was believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's disease, which is incurable. He subsequently made a full recovery."

    He made medical history.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MarkSenior said:

    Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one .
    They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .

    Doesn't the top chart show Con dropping from 46% to 39% share over the last 5 years; and the gap to Labour shrinking from 20% to 11%? Or am I missing something?
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    CD13 said:

    I think we all wish Lord Janner a speedy recovery.

    Take the case of Ernest Saunders ... "He was sentenced to five years' imprisonment, but released after 10 months as he was believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's disease, which is incurable. He subsequently made a full recovery."

    The rich and powerful can fall ill almost when they need it and then show remarkable powers of recovery.

    I always thought it was the courts which decided if a person was fit to stand trial.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Artist said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Artist said:

    Going on the UKIP Ashcroft figures: Boston 35%, Thurrock 36%, Great Yarmouth 31%, S Basildon 29%, Castle Point 36%

    That'd mean UKIP are only averaging 4.3% in the other five. Pretty unlikely.

    The poll could also indicate the Tories are building up big leads in their safe seats though.

    Taken together with the SW Lib Dem marginals poll ComRes is certainly more friendly to the Tories than Ashcroft.

    I have a vague recollection of ComRes doing marginal polling for GE2010. I wonder how well that turned out?
    I think this was how all marginal polling was conducted before the 2010 General Election rather than at a constituency level.

    They weren't very accurate
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7673406/General-Election-2010-marginal-poll-points-to-Conservative-majority.html
    Hmmm.
    This was on the Telegraph on the same day just 5 hours later.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7674796/General-Election-2010-David-Cameron-needs-just-14-more-seats.html

    Newspapers can change their opinion very quickly if given the opportunity.
    Still, it was impressive to see Lynton Crosby hitting the bullseye with his polling that year.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MarkSenior said:

    Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one .
    They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .

    Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Any clues as regards tonght's YouGov poll? I'm expecting parity to be restored.
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