Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
Any clues as regards tonght's YouGov poll? I'm expecting parity to be restored.
The other day I knocked up a quick C++ program to calculate poll scores for every day until the election, as I could not stand not knowing what the very next poll was going to show. If people ask nicely I'll post the raw code here so they can relieve their poll-mania.
Utterly random and pointless of course, but the chances are that it'll still be more accurate than at least one of the pollsters ...
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
As you believed this morning that the UK's expenditure in WW 2 was financed entirely out of 1932 War Loan stock, I don't think history tells you anything very clearly.
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
As you believed this morning that the UK's expenditure in WW 2 was financed entirely out of 1932 War Loan stock, I don't think history tells you anything very clearly.
It might have helped if you had read and/or understood the thread you commented on. But the re-writing of facts that don't suit seems to be another trait of the "English is best" crowd.
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
As you believed this morning that the UK's expenditure in WW 2 was financed entirely out of 1932 War Loan stock, I don't think history tells you anything very clearly.
Ye gods! Was that only this morning? It feels like last week.
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump. But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
When survation gave Farage an 11pt lead in Thanet, I took into account they overstate Ukip by 20% in both by elections and reasons he was prob. 6-7% ahead
Com res understate by 30% compared to average, meaning Ukip could be on 27% in these seats if all pollsters did them
So. I say Ukip are not dead! I will take bets to this effect
Email me for any you wAnt , working/dating now
I'm surprised as a Kipper you are showing any signs of negativity!
What we have is a pollster that underestimates UKIP polling tiny samples without naming candidates and groups together 10 strange seats. What is the reasoning for comres choosing these random seats and sticking them together? Perhaps if polled separately we would have UKIP ahead or neck and neck in 2 seats of the 10 then that would be a major headline headache for the Tories. I still remain confused about comes and the motive behind this 'poll' and what it is supposed to achieve.
What I am quite sure of is UKIP are leading in Thurrock and neck and neck in Castle Point. If I were to assume they will win Clacton and one of Thanet or Rochester (I have no extra information here mind) then 3 or 4 seats remains very likely. 11% or 16% the national numbers won't affect these seats much at all you would think, its simply all about the local ground game.
Interesting Evan Davis interview with Farage, Davis bringing up Paddington Bear and Farage comparing himself to Tigger. Strange election.
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
I prefer to think of it as being conquered by french speaking Northmen. It hurts less. But seriously, other than the Normans, who conquered the English? I don't think William of Orange taking over counts. I suppose there were some of the other Viking invaders.
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
As you believed this morning that the UK's expenditure in WW 2 was financed entirely out of 1932 War Loan stock, I don't think history tells you anything very clearly.
It might have helped if you had read and/or understood the thread you commented on. But the re-writing of facts that don't suit seems to be another trait of the "English is best" crowd.
Um, it's the trait of most crowds. Pretending otherwise is to be a living example of it.
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
As you believed this morning that the UK's expenditure in WW 2 was financed entirely out of 1932 War Loan stock, I don't think history tells you anything very clearly.
It might have helped if you had read and/or understood the thread you commented on. But the re-writing of facts that don't suit seems to be another trait of the "English is best" crowd.
OK. You said this:
"Remember, the UK paid it's entire War Bond Debt from WW2 in a single payment three years ago. The entire domestic borrowing for the whole of WW2 in one payment."
I confess it does get my goat and gander up .... and probably many other members of the animal kingdom too, to hear politicians moaning that they've had a hard time and the media are so beastly.
Excellent I say. Politicians need to reminded (almost certainly daily with a sharp poke) that they serve the people and the media mostly act as our agents to keep the bastards honest.
They are not there to fawn over the buggers but to test them to within an inch of their expense claims and often risible promises, evasions and half truths.
The average for these ten seats is almost exactly in line with my model plus Ashcroft.
No surprises. I don't think this poll adds any new info.
How do you have Cannock Chase on your model ?
My model shows Cannock Chase as: Con 36% Lab 39% LD 4% Grn 4% UKIP 17% But Ashcroft has: Con 27% Lab 32% LD 8% Grn 2% UKIP 30%
It looks as if UKIP has got perhaps an extra 9% from Con and 4% from Lab. Green is squeezed dry by Lab. Although LD is squeezed, there's more squeezing for Lab to go for. Perhaps another 4%. With no clear winner between Con and UKIP, it's hard to see one of them persuading the other to vote for them to stop Lab.
With no knowledge of the local picture, I would guess probability of winner is 60% Lab, 20% Con, 20% UKIP.
Cannock Chase is number 39 on my list of 47 Lab gains from Con.
Oh, Farage got an interview too? Best watch. I thought Clegg did the best so far, not that it will help him at all, with Miliband far below his usual quality due to a very different approach.
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
Thank you .... do you have any interesting snippets from your regional LibDem seats?
BTW .... I hope you are well stocked with your favourite tipple for election night ??
As I posted the other day , I have heard from 2 sources neither Lib Dem that the Conservatives are no longer targeting Carshalton/Wallington but putting all their efforts into Sutton and Cheam
I confess it does get my goat and gander up .... and probably many other members of the animal kingdom too, to hear politicians moaning that they've had a hard time and the media are so beastly.
Excellent I say. Politicians need to reminded (almost certainly daily with a sharp poke) that they serve the people and the media mostly act as our agents to keep the bastards honest.
They are not there to fawn over the buggers but to test them to within an inch of their expense claims and often risible promises, evasions and half truths.
Watching the cricket, I reckon if the Aussies really want to take the piss they could get something like 1,000 for 7 in three days then bowl England out by lunch on the last day.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump. But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Interesting Evan Davis interview with Farage, Davis bringing up Paddington Bear and Farage comparing himself to Tigger. Strange election.
I watched that. Shoddy research and blatant bias from Team Newsnight. Again.
No doubt Farage stating that he would cut the BBC to the bone has got them rattled.
He'll never get the chance to do it, so while they won't like it, it shouldn't rattle them. What the Tories decide to do should worry them, assuming the Tories get in.
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
Thank you .... do you have any interesting snippets from your regional LibDem seats?
BTW .... I hope you are well stocked with your favourite tipple for election night ??
As I posted the other day , I have heard from 2 sources neither Lib Dem that the Conservatives are no longer targeting Carshalton/Wallington but putting all their efforts into Sutton and Cheam
Thanks.
Lewes, Eastleigh and Eastbourne look OK.
Portsmouth South is a mess - what's your assessment
One way to find out if someone is fit for trial or not is to make a libellous statement against him. !
To be fair Janner is now in his late eighties, so dementia is quite possible. Any case against him would be based on memories of what happened 30-40 years ago. There is very little if any forensic evidence, just distant memories of accussor and accused to base a trial on.
The case should have been properly investigated when Paul Winston made his accusations in court during the Frank Beck case. Both those names have a very interesting google; but this is from Hansard:
Ironically Janners proudest achievement as an MP was the War Crimes act, so that frail elderly people could be pursued to the grave for evils committed decades before. I believe that his dementia is compounded by Chutzpah*.
*Chutzpah is a Yiddish word defined by a comedian as a man on trial for murdering his parents begging for clemency because he is an orphan.
I confess it does get my goat and gander up .... and probably many other members of the animal kingdom too, to hear politicians moaning that they've had a hard time and the media are so beastly.
Excellent I say. Politicians need to reminded (almost certainly daily with a sharp poke) that they serve the people and the media mostly act as our agents to keep the bastards honest.
They are not there to fawn over the buggers but to test them to within an inch of their expense claims and often risible promises, evasions and half truths.
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
I prefer to think of it as being conquered by french speaking Northmen. It hurts less. But seriously, other than the Normans, who conquered the English? I don't think William of Orange taking over counts. I suppose there were some of the other Viking invaders.
So a triple dip for the Vikings. Might as well stick your women on the beach legs akimbo. I guess you still do and call it Geordie Shore.
"Remember, the UK paid it's entire War Bond Debt from WW2 in a single payment three years ago. The entire domestic borrowing for the whole of WW2 in one payment."
What were you on about?
I was on about a ridiculous request to "repay the Darien fund". So my example had an error, the point was still correct. Old debts tend not to be worth considering. It's also a good example of how you can shrink National Debts without making payments.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
You ought to come to Scotland and look at a supermarket newspaper counter and watch the state broadcast news on TV!
And why on earth do you think they have English subtitles on Rab C. Nesbit? My southern friends found them very useful.
Interesting Evan Davis interview with Farage, Davis bringing up Paddington Bear and Farage comparing himself to Tigger. Strange election.
I watched that. Shoddy research and blatant bias from Team Newsnight. Again.
No doubt Farage stating that he would cut the BBC to the bone has got them rattled.
He'll never get the chance to do it, so while they won't like it, it shouldn't rattle them. What the Tories decide to do should worry them, assuming the Tories get in.
Farage has made one of the more high profile attacks on the BBC. It has been an issue brought up on the doorstep. Drawing attention to the scandal that is the television tax can only be a good thing.
There are an awful lot of Tory MPs looking to scrap the television tax.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump. But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.
Interesting.
You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.
Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.
Interesting anecdote from my daughter's school today:
All 5 candidates for Hertford and Stortford did a 6th form hustings/Q&A thing. Then 175 6th formers voted, results as follows (Change on share in H&S last time in brackets FWIW)
Mark Prisk (Con) 38.8% (-14.4) Green 28.6 (+28.6) Lab 22.9 (+9.1) LD 7.4 (-18.6) UKIP 2.8 (-0.3)
So "Con hold" even amongst 6th formers! Have to say I was a bit surprised. In 1992 in my school's mock election LD beat Con by ~15% despite the local result (Stratford-on-Avon) being more than 2:1 the other way (Labour nowhere...)
LDs brand absolutely shot amongst the kids and UKIP lost its deposit.
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
Thank you .... do you have any interesting snippets from your regional LibDem seats?
BTW .... I hope you are well stocked with your favourite tipple for election night ??
As I posted the other day , I have heard from 2 sources neither Lib Dem that the Conservatives are no longer targeting Carshalton/Wallington but putting all their efforts into Sutton and Cheam
Thanks.
Lewes, Eastleigh and Eastbourne look OK.
Portsmouth South is a mess - what's your assessment
In Eastleigh the number of lib dem posters is well down. We have also had no literature from the lib dens at all
Just had a very charming LibDem canvasser at the door interested in the destination of my postal vote.
For my election bribe, I asked for a years supply of House of Commons wine.
As Eric Joyce won’t be returning, there will be a surplus of alcohol needing drinking.
Just met a Green canvasser tonight, nice guy, but a recent convert - kept him chatting for ten minutes - on basis he can't knock on too many doors tonight - helps lower his productivity. Hadn't the heart to say that the postal vote hadn't been sent off...
Interesting Evan Davis interview with Farage, Davis bringing up Paddington Bear and Farage comparing himself to Tigger. Strange election.
I watched that. Shoddy research and blatant bias from Team Newsnight. Again.
No doubt Farage stating that he would cut the BBC to the bone has got them rattled.
He'll never get the chance to do it, so while they won't like it, it shouldn't rattle them. What the Tories decide to do should worry them, assuming the Tories get in.
Farage has made one of the more high profile attacks on the BBC. It has been an issue brought up on the doorstep. Drawing attention to the scandal that is the television tax can only be a good thing.
There are an awful lot of Tory MPs looking to scrap the television tax.
Labour, Conservatives and LibDems won't radically reform the BBC.Indeed I would be surprised if anything was changed at all, over and above a bit of an argument over the level of the licence fee. This is despite the fact that technological advances are putting more and more pressure on the concept of the licence fee.
I still don't understand this accusation. The SNP do want to end this country as it currently exists, and that will have an impact on how they will act in parliament. The Scottish voters seem happy with what they will choose to do in parliament, but the rest of the UK is allowed to comment on whether they too are happy with that, and they can vote accordingly if they want to avoid or reduce the SNP's direct influence on the government (either through massive Labour or Tory gains). And some would want to encourage the SNP influence as a result of the 'warning' so what's the problem?
How is pointing that out and letting people decide if it matter so much to them to change their vote whipping up nationalism? It's not being ruled by Scots that is the problem except in a few instances, it's being ruled by a party that does not have the interests of the union at heart (nor should they, that's not their focus).
There's this view that the English owe the Scots deference.
Given their history of being conquered by pretty much everyone (even the French), I think history tells us the English give deference to everyone whether it is owed or not.
I prefer to think of it as being conquered by french speaking Northmen. It hurts less. But seriously, other than the Normans, who conquered the English? I don't think William of Orange taking over counts. I suppose there were some of the other Viking invaders.
So a triple dip for the Vikings. Might as well stick your women on the beach legs akimbo. I guess you still do and call it Geordie Shore.
What does Georgie Shore have to do with scottish independence? Is it an SNP demand of some sort?
Have now heard from all four major parties here in Leyton and Wandsted. TBH the fact that Labour have been in contact twice rather surprised me - the seat is as safe as houses.
What on earth are you on about. The SNP will be delighted to feature once again dominating the news bulletins. Salmond's achievement is extraordinary taking the SNP from nothing to where it stands today.
Three qualities he undoubtedly has. One he can speak. Two he relates to people and three he isn't boring like Cameron.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Rab Nesbitt used to be UK TV. Difficult to understand mind!
Jess Brammar @jessbrammar 44m44 minutes ago We weren't able to take cameraman into meeting where Gordon Brown speaking tonight - was a small campaign event & they hadn't invited media
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
Thank you .... do you have any interesting snippets from your regional LibDem seats?
BTW .... I hope you are well stocked with your favourite tipple for election night ??
As I posted the other day , I have heard from 2 sources neither Lib Dem that the Conservatives are no longer targeting Carshalton/Wallington but putting all their efforts into Sutton and Cheam
Thanks.
Lewes, Eastleigh and Eastbourne look OK.
Portsmouth South is a mess - what's your assessment
In Eastleigh the number of lib dem posters is well down. We have also had no literature from the lib dens at all
I'm not surprised at all.
As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.
Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.
Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Rab Nesbitt used to be UK TV. Difficult to understand mind!
While there are many candidates for lamest British sitcom to go to multiple series Rab C Nesbitt must be in the top three with Mrs Browns Boys in second and Last of the Summer Wine in first.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Rab Nesbitt used to be UK TV. Difficult to understand mind!
That's the point, nobody outside of scotland could understand what was going on.
Just had a very charming LibDem canvasser at the door interested in the destination of my postal vote.
For my election bribe, I asked for a years supply of House of Commons wine.
As Eric Joyce won’t be returning, there will be a surplus of alcohol needing drinking.
Just met a Green canvasser tonight, nice guy, but a recent convert - kept him chatting for ten minutes - on basis he can't knock on too many doors tonight - helps lower his productivity. Hadn't the heart to say that the postal vote hadn't been sent off...
I am hoping to do that to any canvassers but alas I live in an ultra safe Tory seat where the MP does sweet FA and romps home every election. I would like to know the PPCs' thoughts on various issues and a total of 0 have got back to me. Poor show all around.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Rab Nesbitt used to be UK TV. Difficult to understand mind!
While there are many candidates for lamest British sitcom to go to multiple series Rab C Nesbitt must be in the top three with Mrs Browns Boys in second and Last of the Summer Wine in first.
Last of the Summer wine could be good! I've always wanted to meet Foggy.
As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.
Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.
Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.
In 2010 I saw almost no posters AT ALL for any party. The A10 in NE Herts this time is replete with Oliver Heald posters, plus a few local election ones, and lots of generic "conservative" ones in Bishops Stortford fields. On a run earlier I did a double take as I saw 3 Labour posters in a row in 3 adjacent detached houses - did make me wonder if it was an audacious guerrilla raid by an enthusiastic Labourite...
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Rab Nesbitt used to be UK TV. Difficult to understand mind!
While there are many candidates for lamest British sitcom to go to multiple series Rab C Nesbitt must be in the top three with Mrs Browns Boys in second and Last of the Summer Wine in first.
No! Rab was hilarious. There was another Scottish one "Still Game" which was hilarious as well. Some of the same actors
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Rab Nesbitt used to be UK TV. Difficult to understand mind!
That's the point, nobody outside of scotland could understand what was going on.
It wasn't hard to understand, just not at all funny, so the impression was that you must have missed something.
Mind you I survived a year of NZ TV once. Their sitcoms are even worse than the Australians.
Have now heard from all four major parties here in Leyton and Wandsted. TBH the fact that Labour have been in contact twice rather surprised me - the seat is as safe as houses.
Maybe they don't think so - they have the data from the D2D canvassing.
As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.
Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.
Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.
I was in Toronto last October during their elections and it seemed just about everyone wanted to display their allegiance to one side or another. And I was in Munich last March and there was a lot of signage up for their elections.
Just had a very charming LibDem canvasser at the door interested in the destination of my postal vote.
For my election bribe, I asked for a years supply of House of Commons wine.
As Eric Joyce won’t be returning, there will be a surplus of alcohol needing drinking.
Just met a Green canvasser tonight, nice guy, but a recent convert - kept him chatting for ten minutes - on basis he can't knock on too many doors tonight - helps lower his productivity. Hadn't the heart to say that the postal vote hadn't been sent off...
I am hoping to do that to any canvassers but alas I live in an ultra safe Tory seat where the MP does sweet FA and romps home every election. I would like to know the PPCs' thoughts on various issues and a total of 0 have got back to me. Poor show all around.
No sign of UKIP or the Independent For Bristol (ex Con candidate in Newport).
All Labour leaflets have been delivered by post, but if they are making an effort it is in wards they control. Odd thing is that there is nothing from Labour about the candidate's biography - though the last leaflet had her chatting with Harman.
Have the Pledge 4 immigration controls mug to offer the Lab canvassers a nice cup of tea.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
That appears to have been due to the behaviour of the politicians. It was not in response to the wishes of the public.
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
I fully agree that this also apples to the UK: "The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK. The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Rab Nesbitt used to be UK TV. Difficult to understand mind!
That's the point, nobody outside of scotland could understand what was going on.
? There are plenty of regional accents I find difficult to understand. Rural ireland, liverpudlians, geordies, teenagers. None of 'em speak proper!
As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.
Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.
Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.
In 2010 I saw almost no posters AT ALL for any party. The A10 in NE Herts this time is replete with Oliver Heald posters, plus a few local election ones, and lots of generic "conservative" ones in Bishops Stortford fields. On a run earlier I did a double take as I saw 3 Labour posters in a row in 3 adjacent detached houses - did make me wonder if it was an audacious guerrilla raid by an enthusiastic Labourite...
I see that the Tories are spending their war chest wisely, filling the extremely safe Tory seat (Maj.30.1%) of N.E. Hertfordshire with campaign material.
'You back us and our first act will be to give you independence'.
Then we get rid of them from the UK Parliament and its CON majority for ever! And we can all have unlimited tax relief on our pensions!!!
People need to remember the example of Czechoslovakia.
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
The Czechs didn't want to continue to fund the Slovak liabilities in the post-communist slump. But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
So one side wanted to get away from the debts of another.
Interesting.
You will have to make scotland an economic wasteland that costs far far more to maintain than it's income to make the UK to abandon it to it's fate.
Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.
Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
To get the true figure you need to discount the £10bn subsidy Scotland pays to England (on average) each year. England gets about £3bn per annum from Scotland before any Oil and Gas Revenues are tallied.
But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.
You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Have to say that I am very dubious of both the Comres polls SW LD seats and this one . They both show the Conservative share well up on 2010 which is not born out in any national poll . It means that if they are well up in both these sets of seats the Conservatives must be well down in other seats perhaps Con/Lab marginals .
Reread Mr Senior ! Con is 7% down, Lab 2% up.
Oooppss , yes what happens when you are playing online bridge at the same time
Thank you .... do you have any interesting snippets from your regional LibDem seats?
BTW .... I hope you are well stocked with your favourite tipple for election night ??
As I posted the other day , I have heard from 2 sources neither Lib Dem that the Conservatives are no longer targeting Carshalton/Wallington but putting all their efforts into Sutton and Cheam
Thanks.
Lewes, Eastleigh and Eastbourne look OK.
Portsmouth South is a mess - what's your assessment
Not entirely correct about Carshalton/Wallington. The same effort has been going into it from the start, but no central resource. Matthew Maxwell Scott, ex-Wandsworth, now local lad has got good electoral experience unlike his predecessor, so will continue to put up a good fight.
Tom Brake, the yellow, is pro a local incinerator there and Greens are quite rightly bashing him on the head about it. Who knows if Greens can nick enough votes or not, but they are thicker on the ground than normal.
Also, one Lib Dem Cllr has been banished for being anti-incinerator so there is a minor civil war going on in this constituency. Punters don't like a divided party so Lib Dems will be on tenterhooks.
Sutton/Cheam, huge effort going in and only time will tell if it will yield results. Libs putting up their cllr allowance by 2.2% has gone down badly. All to play for with Libs shooting themselves in the feet.
Electoral Calculus showing both Tory gains but as usual they will be some incumbency effect.
Another damning article on the long standing tolerance of child abuse by the South Yorkshire plods.
And appropriate that the letters were sent to politicians from Labour, LibDems and the Conservatives and that none of them responded.
Do you have trouble reading things that disprove your argument?
It proves my argument.
Theresa May has done nothing.
Calling for Sean Wright to resign when everyone else was isn't doing anything.
I'll repeat:
Parliament has been heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.
That happened on about 8th September 2014.
Now show me what response Home Secretary Theresa May or policing Minister Mike Penning have made to that.
So is anyone surprised by the details in today's Times about the timing of Lord Janner's 'health problems' ?
The interesting idea they floated was the "finding of fact" hearing - feels like someone has hinted at a possible compromise.
I am very sceptical about the timing (given the details repeated today - I think they were already known?). If Janner doesn't have the mental capacity to mount an effective defence then it would be wrong for him to be convicted.
But it is absolutely wrong for the CPS to make this decision. It should be up to the judge, possibly even pre-trial, to make that choice.
o/t The gay marriage referendum in Ireland (some political betting light relief after the UK general election) has produced some good campaign videos. This is probably my favourite:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
A no result would be a serious two fingers to the luvvies of Ireland. Almost every Irish comedian, singer, actor or sportsperson you can think of has rowed in behind yes
Jess Brammar @jessbrammar 44m44 minutes ago We weren't able to take cameraman into meeting where Gordon Brown speaking tonight - was a small campaign event & they hadn't invited media
So is anyone surprised by the details in today's Times about the timing of Lord Janner's 'health problems' ?
The interesting idea they floated was the "finding of fact" hearing - feels like someone has hinted at a possible compromise.
I am very sceptical about the timing (given the details repeated today - I think they were already known?). If Janner doesn't have the mental capacity to mount an effective defence then it would be wrong for him to be convicted.
But it is absolutely wrong for the CPS to make this decision. It should be up to the judge, possibly even pre-trial, to make that choice.
Isn't he going to the be the key witness even in a finding of fact scenario? Is that not a little contradictory?
(I know a bit about this sort of thing, but this is beyond my understanding.)
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
Interesting anecdote from my daughter's school today:
All 5 candidates for Hertford and Stortford did a 6th form hustings/Q&A thing. Then 175 6th formers voted, results as follows (Change on share in H&S last time in brackets FWIW)
Mark Prisk (Con) 38.8% (-14.4) Green 28.6 (+28.6) Lab 22.9 (+9.1) LD 7.4 (-18.6) UKIP 2.8 (-0.3)
So "Con hold" even amongst 6th formers! Have to say I was a bit surprised. In 1992 in my school's mock election LD beat Con by ~15% despite the local result (Stratford-on-Avon) being more than 2:1 the other way (Labour nowhere...)
LDs brand absolutely shot amongst the kids and UKIP lost its deposit.
#JustABitOfFun
I find it so incredibly depressing when young people come out as Tories, beyond words. I kind of understand why the oldies get there- moaning and embittered with life finally drives them to the dark side, but not young people. My friends daughter recently came out as a Tory much to his disgust. How did he get his parenting so wrong?
BTW- I am about 70% sure that the YouGov Poll is going to go back into a tie, or even inch slightly to Labour. If my theory is right, I'll let you know.
Interesting anecdote from my daughter's school today:
All 5 candidates for Hertford and Stortford did a 6th form hustings/Q&A thing. Then 175 6th formers voted, results as follows (Change on share in H&S last time in brackets FWIW)
Mark Prisk (Con) 38.8% (-14.4) Green 28.6 (+28.6) Lab 22.9 (+9.1) LD 7.4 (-18.6) UKIP 2.8 (-0.3)
So "Con hold" even amongst 6th formers! Have to say I was a bit surprised. In 1992 in my school's mock election LD beat Con by ~15% despite the local result (Stratford-on-Avon) being more than 2:1 the other way (Labour nowhere...)
LDs brand absolutely shot amongst the kids and UKIP lost its deposit.
#JustABitOfFun
I find it so incredibly depressing when young people come out as Tories, beyond words. I kind of understand why the oldies get there- moaning and embittered with life finally drives them to the dark side, but not young people. My friends daughter recently came out as a Tory much to his disgust. How did he get his parenting so wrong?
Children differing from their parents views is no bad thing and them supporting the Conservatives is understandable if they're doing it, rightly or wrongly, for libertarian anti-establishment reasons.
Many teenagers will have spent their life under a schooling system which is statist and leftist and parents who are leftist public sector employees so to many being pro Conservative is a sign of rebellion.
Comments
Utterly random and pointless of course, but the chances are that it'll still be more accurate than at least one of the pollsters ...
Within 18 months of a No vote in both Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both went their own way without a further vote. It was politically expedient.
Emily Gosden @emilygosden · 1 hr 1 hour ago
BBC's @itschrissmith bets Prime Minister £1,000 he won't win a majority. @Conservatives not happy. #LiveLoungeCameron http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11556421/BBC-accused-of-left-wing-ambush-on-David-Cameron-over-hostile-Radio-1-interview.html …
What's your best estimate for LibDem seats?
"In 1992, the Czech Republic elected Václav Klaus and others who demanded either an even tighter federation ("viable federation") or two independent states. Vladimír Mečiar and other leading Slovak politicians of the day wanted a kind of confederation. The two sides opened frequent and intense negotiations in June. On 17 July, the Slovak parliament adopted the Declaration of independence of the Slovak nation. Six days later, Klaus and Meciar agreed to dissolve Czechoslovakia at a meeting in Bratislava. Czechoslovak president Václav Havel resigned rather than oversee the dissolution which he had opposed; in a September 1992 poll, only 37% of Slovaks and 36% of Czechs favoured dissolution.[2]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia
BTW .... I hope you are well stocked with your favourite tipple for election night ??
But what will the SNP do with its independence that it can't do now?
What we have is a pollster that underestimates UKIP polling tiny samples without naming candidates and groups together 10 strange seats. What is the reasoning for comres choosing these random seats and sticking them together? Perhaps if polled separately we would have UKIP ahead or neck and neck in 2 seats of the 10 then that would be a major headline headache for the Tories. I still remain confused about comes and the motive behind this 'poll' and what it is supposed to achieve.
What I am quite sure of is UKIP are leading in Thurrock and neck and neck in Castle Point. If I were to assume they will win Clacton and one of Thanet or Rochester (I have no extra information here mind) then 3 or 4 seats remains very likely. 11% or 16% the national numbers won't affect these seats much at all you would think, its simply all about the local ground game.
Interesting Evan Davis interview with Farage, Davis bringing up Paddington Bear and Farage comparing himself to Tigger. Strange election.
Hmmmmm.
"Remember, the UK paid it's entire War Bond Debt from WW2 in a single payment three years ago. The entire domestic borrowing for the whole of WW2 in one payment."
What were you on about?
Excellent I say. Politicians need to reminded (almost certainly daily with a sharp poke) that they serve the people and the media mostly act as our agents to keep the bastards honest.
They are not there to fawn over the buggers but to test them to within an inch of their expense claims and often risible promises, evasions and half truths.
Con 36% Lab 39% LD 4% Grn 4% UKIP 17%
But Ashcroft has:
Con 27% Lab 32% LD 8% Grn 2% UKIP 30%
It looks as if UKIP has got perhaps an extra 9% from Con and 4% from Lab.
Green is squeezed dry by Lab.
Although LD is squeezed, there's more squeezing for Lab to go for. Perhaps another 4%.
With no clear winner between Con and UKIP, it's hard to see one of them persuading the other to vote for them to stop Lab.
With no knowledge of the local picture, I would guess probability of winner is 60% Lab, 20% Con, 20% UKIP.
Cannock Chase is number 39 on my list of 47 Lab gains from Con.
How could Newsnight possibly think Farage was a Peruvian immigrant ?
Interesting.
"The people who argue events between 1989 and 1992 point to international factors such as the breakaway of the Soviet satellite nations, the lack of unified media between the Czech and Slovak republic, and most importantly the actions of the political leaders of the two nations"
The biggest underlying issue that lead to the current state in scotland apart from North Sea Oil is that there isn't a unified media & sports market in the UK.
The scots have their own sports teams, their own newspapers and their own TV channels that only they watch and read.
As a result the scottish people are culturally isolated from the rest of the country and vise versa, for example nobody in england has heard of Nesbitt or reads the Scotsman.
For my election bribe, I asked for a years supply of House of Commons wine.
As Eric Joyce won’t be returning, there will be a surplus of alcohol needing drinking.
Lewes, Eastleigh and Eastbourne look OK.
Portsmouth South is a mess - what's your assessment
Is he afflicted by the curse of the celts ?
The case should have been properly investigated when Paul Winston made his accusations in court during the Frank Beck case. Both those names have a very interesting google; but this is from Hansard:
http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1991/dec/03/contempt-of-court
Ironically Janners proudest achievement as an MP was the War Crimes act, so that frail elderly people could be pursued to the grave for evils committed decades before. I believe that his dementia is compounded by Chutzpah*.
*Chutzpah is a Yiddish word defined by a comedian as a man on trial for murdering his parents begging for clemency because he is an orphan.
And why on earth do you think they have English subtitles on Rab C. Nesbit? My southern friends found them very useful.
There are an awful lot of Tory MPs looking to scrap the television tax.
Scotland costs just about more that 7 billion pounds extra a year to maintain while North Sea Oil revenues at max is just about more than 8 billion a year, so at max the benefit is very small but in 10 years time it will turn to a net loss of around 10 billion a year, so the question is if propping up scotland from collapsing is worth it or not.
Same goes for the eurozone ironically.
All 5 candidates for Hertford and Stortford did a 6th form hustings/Q&A thing. Then 175 6th formers voted, results as follows (Change on share in H&S last time in brackets FWIW)
Mark Prisk (Con) 38.8% (-14.4)
Green 28.6 (+28.6)
Lab 22.9 (+9.1)
LD 7.4 (-18.6)
UKIP 2.8 (-0.3)
So "Con hold" even amongst 6th formers! Have to say I was a bit surprised. In 1992 in my school's mock election LD beat Con by ~15% despite the local result (Stratford-on-Avon) being more than 2:1 the other way (Labour nowhere...)
LDs brand absolutely shot amongst the kids and UKIP lost its deposit.
#JustABitOfFun
Is it an SNP demand of some sort?
What on earth are you on about. The SNP will be delighted to feature once again dominating the news bulletins. Salmond's achievement is extraordinary taking the SNP from nothing to where it stands today.
Three qualities he undoubtedly has. One he can speak. Two he relates to people and three he isn't boring like Cameron.
I am sort of hoping England lose this series. Who knows, the powers that be might actually do something to reform cricket.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/police-whistleblower-claims-theresa-ignored-5420145
Another damning article on the long standing tolerance of child abuse by the South Yorkshire plods.
And appropriate that the letters were sent to politicians from Labour, LibDems and the Conservatives and that none of them responded.
We weren't able to take cameraman into meeting where Gordon Brown speaking tonight - was a small campaign event & they hadn't invited media
As each general election passes the willingness of the voters to publically display their allegiances seems to diminish.
Within Herts I've seen far fewer posters for all parties with the notable exception of Watford where Dorothy Thornhill seems to hold sway.
Even the fields and rural trees seem to have lost the appetite to vote Conservative.
Mind you I survived a year of NZ TV once. Their sitcoms are even worse than the Australians.
No sign of UKIP or the Independent For Bristol (ex Con candidate in Newport).
All Labour leaflets have been delivered by post, but if they are making an effort it is in wards they control. Odd thing is that there is nothing from Labour about the candidate's biography - though the last leaflet had her chatting with Harman.
Have the Pledge 4 immigration controls mug to offer the Lab canvassers a nice cup of tea.
There are plenty of regional accents I find difficult to understand. Rural ireland, liverpudlians, geordies, teenagers. None of 'em speak proper!
As Parliament have been told that the South Yorkshire Police have been doing.
But the idea that once those revenues are gone Westminster will cast Scotland off is also farcical.
You only need to look at Wales which 100 years ago was one of the richest countries on earth and is now one of the poorest regions of Europe. Once Westminster has syphoned off the money from natural resources (coal in Wales case) it will then apply its vice to the wealth of the people and slowly but surely diminish the wealth of the Nation/Region until it is in poverty and genuinely reliant.
Tom Brake, the yellow, is pro a local incinerator there and Greens are quite rightly bashing him on the head about it. Who knows if Greens can nick enough votes or not, but they are thicker on the ground than normal.
Also, one Lib Dem Cllr has been banished for being anti-incinerator so there is a minor civil war going on in this constituency. Punters don't like a divided party so Lib Dems will be on tenterhooks.
Sutton/Cheam, huge effort going in and only time will tell if it will yield results. Libs putting up their cllr allowance by 2.2% has gone down badly. All to play for with Libs shooting themselves in the feet.
Electoral Calculus showing both Tory gains but as usual they will be some incumbency effect.
Theresa May has done nothing.
Calling for Sean Wright to resign when everyone else was isn't doing anything.
I'll repeat:
Parliament has been heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.
That happened on about 8th September 2014.
Now show me what response Home Secretary Theresa May or policing Minister Mike Penning have made to that.
I am very sceptical about the timing (given the details repeated today - I think they were already known?). If Janner doesn't have the mental capacity to mount an effective defence then it would be wrong for him to be convicted.
But it is absolutely wrong for the CPS to make this decision. It should be up to the judge, possibly even pre-trial, to make that choice.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_c_e.html#CarshaltonandWallington
Two Tory Gains if Electoral Calculus is correct! My reading is C/W will be bigger surprise but I assume longer odds and better value.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkwYEhjjZhs
A no result would be a serious two fingers to the luvvies of Ireland. Almost every Irish comedian, singer, actor or sportsperson you can think of has rowed in behind yes
(I know a bit about this sort of thing, but this is beyond my understanding.)
http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html.
The one site may say that Labour is say 37% likely to win a seat and the other may say that the seat is a 100% certain Tory hold.
My friends daughter recently came out as a Tory much to his disgust. How did he get his parenting so wrong?
Many teenagers will have spent their life under a schooling system which is statist and leftist and parents who are leftist public sector employees so to many being pro Conservative is a sign of rebellion.