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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in it
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets
A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which I think is wrong this close to the election.
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Meh, not individual constituency polls.
TPD should also start packing?
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BJO: what do you say now it looks as though Hinchinbrooke Hospital under Circle was nowhere near as sh*te as you were telling us it was?
Thanks have seen it now. A re-inspection was carried out in January
After a second assessment of Hinchingbrooke the CQC has now rated the hospital as "requires improvement", but it has not been removed from special measures.
Hinchingbrooke remained "inadequate" for whether it was well-led
What might be the baseline level of support in outer ring UKIP targets as opposed to the inner two or three targets? If it's as high as the 20% that UKIP recorded in Dover, your theory doesn't work. If it's lower, it could.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/lara-prendergast/2015/04/white-people-have-now-been-banned-from-an-anti-racism-event-at-a-british-university/
I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b9dcf04-e8d5-11e4-87fe-00144feab7de.html#axzz3XxoAtHW1
The whole thing is worth reading but here's some vox pop:
"At a bus stop, Frank Curke, a former docker who took part in the “Red Clyde” strikes of the 1970s, says he will vote Labour until his dying day.
“But they are rubbish these days,” says the pensioner. “They are not leftwing enough. They should nationalise the railways, gas, electricity. Jim Murphy is just a careerist politician.”
Dave McKay, an estate agent, says it was not a matter of left or right.
“I didn’t vote for independence but I do want MPs who fight for Scotland in Westminster. That’s not something that really happened with the Tories or Labour. And I’ve been impressed by Nicola Sturgeon and how she has run things.”
Samantha Morton, a mother who works for a housing association, says she will vote SNP as a protest vote against austerity and the Trident nuclear deterrent.
“We now have tenants who are relying on food banks — that is wrong in this day and age,” she says. “For the first time ever I think my vote might actually count for something . . . I feel completely empowered.” "
Com Res last three Ukip scores have averaged under 11 when the average Ukip was 14
So it's poss the scores could have 33% added to them (or to be clearer, multiplied by 1.33)
A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).
11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
7.5: ICM (last six)
6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
6.5 Yougov (last 10)
5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
5.4 Comres (last 6)
It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.
Time for some weasel words about what "pulling over" somebody might entail and how that wasn't it.
That's blatant sexism and racism. Not much more to say.
And BEFORE this poll Election Forecast had UKIP winning one seat.
This?
Update: While it initially appeared that the culprit is a Labour press officer, the cameraman says he got “tangled up in someone’s legs..It happens.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html
I will continue to add to my position there.
There's a reasonable chance they'll come 3rd.
Andrew Hawkins@Andrew_ComRes·22 secs23 seconds ago
ComRes/ITV News: in Con-held UKIP targets 1 in 10 Lab voters and 6 in 10 Kippers wd prefer Cam as PM after #GE2015
I think Farage has a real fight on his hands in South Thanet.
Roll up
South Thanet: too close to call
Boston: leaning Con, UKIP in 2nd place
Thurrock: Leaning UKIP
Forest of Dean: likely Con, UKIP in 3rd place
Great Yarmouth: too close to call, 3 way tie
North Thanet: Con, UKIP 2nd place
East Worthing and Shoreham: Con, UKIP 2nd place
Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Con, UKIP and Lab tied 2nd place
South Basildon: Leaning Con, 3 way tie
Castle Point: likely Con, UKIP 2nd.
And once again, as OGH indicates, we have no named candidates. PBers should also be especially wary of translating this poll across the Thanet South battleground, where IMO Farage will win with something, other than a few pints, to spare.
Tories down 7 points in these seats but only 2 or 3 nationally. Must be doing well somewhere.
That'd mean UKIP are only averaging 4.3% in the other five. Pretty unlikely.
The poll could also indicate the Tories are building up big leads in their safe seats though.
@GuidoFawkes How many are Ukip going to win. According to that poll.
[Chris Ship tweet directing Dan to figures]
Chris Ship
@chrisshipitv
@DPJHodges @GuidoFawkes But short answer is none
Com res understate by 30% compared to average, meaning Ukip could be on 27% in these seats if all pollsters did them
So. I say Ukip are not dead! I will take bets to this effect
Email me for any you wAnt , working/dating now
Celebrity Cruises UK@CelebrityUK·3 mins3 minutes ago
Did you know our wine tower holds 2,800 bottles of wine and Screaming Eagle is most expensive at $7,000 a bottle!
A rural, isolated constituency with no incumbent & a parachuted-in replacement conservative MP. The young people have left and the old people can't understand what this cameron guy is doing to their country.
Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.
Send for the Elvis impersonator!
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·2 mins2 minutes ago
Please tell me our 'Prime Minister' didn't post on Twitter 'secret film' of an @AlexSalmond joke? The only joke is @David_Cameron as PM
I've worn out the cassette tapes and CDs - now have them all as MP3s and know off by heart. We played Name That Tune within 5 secs of each episode...IIRC the set costs about £100 on Amazon, but you can find an alternative... Vanilla me and will send them to you on a flash drive if all else fails.
They are the Con-Lab swing in the Southern region based on averaged subsamples for those six pollsters.
So, Ipsos are currently showing an 11.7% swing from Con-Lab across the south in their national polls, ICM 7.5% etc.
This poll is below all the national samples (but they include london). However, Ipsos stands out like a sore thumb with a way above average swing to Labour.
So they were certainly thought to be competitive in those seats.
On the basis of these numbers they may be under 15% in those seats. What does that imply nationally?
This Whimsical Mirth Distraction (WMD) is a clear, authoritative and extensive proof of Cameron's danger to Britain.
So apart from those 2 out of 10 seats not being on the likely UKIP seats, this polls is pretty bad all the way down to the specific constituency question and the 2010 breakdown, in which UKIP is surprisingly doing the same or worse in those seats than the national average.
It is very surprising that UKIP are not doing better in their targets than nationally.
Its a twist on cop drama - you're told up front who the Victim and Killer are. ctv.ca/Motive/video.aspx
Cat C1: Lab 26 UK 21 (Con 37)
Cat C2: Lab 26 UK 20 (Con 44)
Cat DE: Lab 32 UK 30 (Con 30)
Find a constituency with very few ABs, Tories with no hope of winning and willing to switch to UKIP and that's a close run thing.
This is the fourth day now they've had both the SNP and the Tories dominating the headlines, fighting it out between each other but in every case, in every story, it's Labour being damaged.
Perhaps even funnier is that despite this, Labour are still holding on in England and could still hit their 270 target for EICINPIPM.
4. Use Ashcroft constituency polls and individual-level data kindly provided by YouGov to identify constituencies where parties are doing particularly well or particularly badly, and apply adjustments to the hypothetical results accordingly.
The most important factors within England and Wales are to do with incumbency.
Those Conservative MPs who took their seat from an MP from another party in 2010 are doing a couple of points better than other Tory candidates. This seems to be an instance of the classic “sophomore surge”, which is common in the US and also seemed to help many first-term Labour MPs hold on in 2001 despite a swing to the Conservatives.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/methodology-for-the-electionsetc-com-forecast/
ComRes/ITV News: in Con-held UKIP targets 1 in 10 Lab voters and 6 in 10 Kippers wd prefer Cam as PM after #GE2015''
Which makes you wonder if these voters are Labour/UKIP voters at all, and if the swings calculated by those in the know are really taking place.
Why no labour UKIP targets?
Every so often I accidentally click one of the older categories and get gems like this
Labour are starting from a very low point in the mid teens in both the SW and SE. Throw in Lib Dem switchers and there's a quick boost.
Look at Hove, MK South.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGLEjHbBmmg
In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:
' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.
The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit
Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.
Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?
On topic, despite some fluctuations am I right in thinking UKIP are are likely to win 2-5 seats as have been this whole time?