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edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which I think is wrong this close to the election.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    First.

    Meh, not individual constituency polls.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Second!
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Is this it - or is there a breakdown?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Do we only get the aggregated numbers. Wonder how well Farage is doing in South Thanet.
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    The problem is, I think, that the aggregate numbers could hide 2 or 3 UKIP gains fairly easily and it's those (South Thanet, Thurrock, etc.) we're most interested in.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    It bodes bad!
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Interesting phrase "In almost all of them" - that presumably means UKIP is ahead in at least 1
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Looking good!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Surprisingly small rise for Labour.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I've been erased from history. I'm calling Jesse Ventura!
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Ukip must be getting worse than zero in East ham and bethnal green
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2015
    I see UKIP's potential labour targets have not been polled.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I guess the last thread wasn't a keeper then...

    TPD should also start packing?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    JosiasJessop said:
    » show previous quotes
    BJO: what do you say now it looks as though Hinchinbrooke Hospital under Circle was nowhere near as sh*te as you were telling us it was?


    Thanks have seen it now. A re-inspection was carried out in January

    After a second assessment of Hinchingbrooke the CQC has now rated the hospital as "requires improvement", but it has not been removed from special measures.

    Hinchingbrooke remained "inadequate" for whether it was well-led
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    There are a few Tory safe seats in there but it does look on the low side for UKIP considering the seats polled overall. It seems they're getting minimal tactical votes from Labour.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @krishgm: Cameraman taken out on the Labour campaign trail http://t.co/ePVXoQb7GS via @Channel4News
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Grandiose said:

    The problem is, I think, that the aggregate numbers could hide 2 or 3 UKIP gains fairly easily and it's those (South Thanet, Thurrock, etc.) we're most interested in.

    True.

    What might be the baseline level of support in outer ring UKIP targets as opposed to the inner two or three targets? If it's as high as the 20% that UKIP recorded in Dover, your theory doesn't work. If it's lower, it could.
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    Would Labour voters back UKIP tactically to beat the Tories ? Some will, but probably not enough.
  • JEO
    JEO Posts: 3,656
    Our universities are now hosting events where white people are banned:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/lara-prendergast/2015/04/white-people-have-now-been-banned-from-an-anti-racism-event-at-a-british-university/
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    I would like to see the Thurrock poll.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Surprisingly small rise for Labour.

    Bearing in mind that they should have gained 7% from the lib dems, I agree. However the rise in the Greens may have eaten into their vote. If these are Tory seats then it is possible that the Blue kippers have come back (UKIP here should be mainly blue UKIP) , but the red ones haven't.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. JEO, get an error message from that link.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Good account in the FT of Jim Murphy's seat and the peril that he's in:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b9dcf04-e8d5-11e4-87fe-00144feab7de.html#axzz3XxoAtHW1

    The whole thing is worth reading but here's some vox pop:

    "At a bus stop, Frank Curke, a former docker who took part in the “Red Clyde” strikes of the 1970s, says he will vote Labour until his dying day.

    “But they are rubbish these days,” says the pensioner. “They are not leftwing enough. They should nationalise the railways, gas, electricity. Jim Murphy is just a careerist politician.”

    Dave McKay, an estate agent, says it was not a matter of left or right.

    “I didn’t vote for independence but I do want MPs who fight for Scotland in Westminster. That’s not something that really happened with the Tories or Labour. And I’ve been impressed by Nicola Sturgeon and how she has run things.”

    Samantha Morton, a mother who works for a housing association, says she will vote SNP as a protest vote against austerity and the Trident nuclear deterrent.

    “We now have tenants who are relying on food banks — that is wrong in this day and age,” she says. “For the first time ever I think my vote might actually count for something . . . I feel completely empowered.” "
  • JEO
    JEO Posts: 3,656
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JEO, get an error message from that link.

    So did I the first time. Try again.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Overall I would say that Mr Cameron is the happiest party leader on these figures.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited April 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
    To fit in better on here though I must make some kind of excuse!

    Com Res last three Ukip scores have averaged under 11 when the average Ukip was 14

    So it's poss the scores could have 33% added to them (or to be clearer, multiplied by 1.33)
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    So a Con-Lab swing of 4.5% in largely southern seats.

    A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).

    11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.5: ICM (last six)
    6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
    6.5 Yougov (last 10)
    5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    5.4 Comres (last 6)

    It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.
  • Norm
    Norm Posts: 1,251
    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
    If Farage loses in Thanet then you may be right. Suggestions from speaking to activists in Rochester and Strood that Kelly Tolhurst will capture the seat from Reckless.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Scott_P said:

    @krishgm: Cameraman taken out on the Labour campaign trail http://t.co/ePVXoQb7GS via @Channel4News

    "Labour says that it is “categorically untrue” that a press officer pulled over a BBC camera."

    Time for some weasel words about what "pulling over" somebody might entail and how that wasn't it.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. JEO, cheers, it does work not.

    That's blatant sexism and racism. Not much more to say.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    chestnut said:

    So a Con-Lab swing of 4.5% in largely southern seats.

    A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).

    11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.5: ICM (last six)
    6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
    6.5 Yougov (last 10)
    5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    5.4 Comres (last 6)

    It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.

    Not sure I understand your data.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Election Forecast had UKIP averaging 26% in these 10 seats. Today's poll gives UKIP 21%.

    And BEFORE this poll Election Forecast had UKIP winning one seat.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @FrancisUrquhart

    This?
    Update: While it initially appeared that the culprit is a Labour press officer, the cameraman says he got “tangled up in someone’s legs..It happens.”
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    UKIP will do better in the Midlands and North than in the South.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    Just sold UKIP in thurrock @ 16 over at spreadex.

    There's a reasonable chance they'll come 3rd.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Norm said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
    If Farage loses in Thanet then you may be right. Suggestions from speaking to activists in Rochester and Strood that Kelly Tolhurst will capture the seat from Reckless.
    A shame as Tolhurst comes across as moronic. The hustings before the by-election was painful, completely out of her depth.
  • JEO
    JEO Posts: 3,656
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JEO, cheers, it does work not.

    That's blatant sexism and racism. Not much more to say.

    Let's hope that Goldsmiths suitably disciplines the organizers. Racist events would not be tolerated against any other ethnic group so it's important to be consistent about these things. A double standard just causes divisiveness.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Incorrect poll, Ed's a studmuffin.

    Andrew Hawkins‏@Andrew_ComRes·22 secs23 seconds ago
    ComRes/ITV News: in Con-held UKIP targets 1 in 10 Lab voters and 6 in 10 Kippers wd prefer Cam as PM after #GE2015
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Not sure this poll tells us very much. But given incumbents were not named (almost all have incumbent Tory MPs) then they should really hang on.

    I think Farage has a real fight on his hands in South Thanet.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Under 2.5 Ukip seats even money with me

    Roll up
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    YouGov nowcast.

    South Thanet: too close to call
    Boston: leaning Con, UKIP in 2nd place
    Thurrock: Leaning UKIP
    Forest of Dean: likely Con, UKIP in 3rd place
    Great Yarmouth: too close to call, 3 way tie
    North Thanet: Con, UKIP 2nd place
    East Worthing and Shoreham: Con, UKIP 2nd place
    Sittingbourne and Sheppey: Con, UKIP and Lab tied 2nd place
    South Basildon: Leaning Con, 3 way tie
    Castle Point: likely Con, UKIP 2nd.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    MP_SE said:

    A fascinating article on South Thanet:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11554583/Nigel-Farages-battle-to-win-South-Thanet-will-go-down-in-election-history.html

    I will continue to add to my position there.

    Written by an "independent" academic as St Hodges refers to the author of that piece....
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    This poll should be treated with the same caution as the ComRes South West LibDem/Con poll.

    And once again, as OGH indicates, we have no named candidates. PBers should also be especially wary of translating this poll across the Thanet South battleground, where IMO Farage will win with something, other than a few pints, to spare.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
  • Eastwinger
    Eastwinger Posts: 356
    Carswell will hold and that will be about it for UKIP.

    Tories down 7 points in these seats but only 2 or 3 nationally. Must be doing well somewhere.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2015
    There is *everything* wrong with the moniker *stud muffin* unless you are Jean Claude Van Damme or Ian Somerholder.
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Incorrect poll, Ed's a studmuffin.

    Andrew Hawkins‏@Andrew_ComRes·22 secs23 seconds ago
    ComRes/ITV News: in Con-held UKIP targets 1 in 10 Lab voters and 6 in 10 Kippers wd prefer Cam as PM after #GE2015

  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Going on the UKIP Ashcroft figures: Boston 35%, Thurrock 36%, Great Yarmouth 31%, S Basildon 29%, Castle Point 36%

    That'd mean UKIP are only averaging 4.3% in the other five. Pretty unlikely.

    The poll could also indicate the Tories are building up big leads in their safe seats though.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    I wonder when we're going to get a ComRes national poll?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. JEO, ha, we shall see.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges

    @GuidoFawkes How many are Ukip going to win. According to that poll.

    [Chris Ship tweet directing Dan to figures]

    Chris Ship
    ‏@chrisshipitv

    @DPJHodges @GuidoFawkes But short answer is none
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    MP_SE said:

    Norm said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
    If Farage loses in Thanet then you may be right. Suggestions from speaking to activists in Rochester and Strood that Kelly Tolhurst will capture the seat from Reckless.
    A shame as Tolhurst comes across as moronic. The hustings before the by-election was painful, completely out of her depth.
    She seemed to be absolutely hopeless at the By-election. Was surprised she was given a second chance.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    When survation gave Farage an 11pt lead in Thanet, I took into account they overstate Ukip by 20% in both by elections and reasons he was prob. 6-7% ahead

    Com res understate by 30% compared to average, meaning Ukip could be on 27% in these seats if all pollsters did them

    So. I say Ukip are not dead! I will take bets to this effect

    Email me for any you wAnt , working/dating now
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    O/T

    Celebrity Cruises UK‏@CelebrityUK·3 mins3 minutes ago
    Did you know our wine tower holds 2,800 bottles of wine and Screaming Eagle is most expensive at $7,000 a bottle!
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I think it'll be renewed, but Kitty was a horror diversion, she had nothing cosmic to add. I'd rather the maths nerd had the attention.
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Scargill and Socialist Labour on BBC TV - minimum wage of £12 per hour, 90% income tax. Another clown trying to outflank Ed on his Left.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    Artist said:

    Going on the UKIP Ashcroft figures: Boston 35%, Thurrock 36%, Great Yarmouth 31%, S Basildon 29%, Castle Point 36%

    That'd mean UKIP are only averaging 4.3% in the other five. Pretty unlikely.

    The poll could also indicate the Tories are building up big leads in their safe seats though.

    The ashcroft figures are out of date.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Plato said:

    I think it'll be renewed, but Kitty was a horror diversion, she had nothing cosmic to add. I'd rather the maths nerd had the attention.

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
    I was against Kitty at first but she grew on me. But if, as it appears, she's just gone for good, one does wonder what the point of her plotline was. I hope it gets one more season at least; I've still not worked up the interest to watch Sherlock, as I was not enthralled by the first episode at all.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    If there's a an under-the-radar/surprise UKIP gain, IMO, it will be louth and horncastle.

    A rural, isolated constituency with no incumbent & a parachuted-in replacement conservative MP. The young people have left and the old people can't understand what this cameron guy is doing to their country.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    BBC have a cab driver's thoughts on issues of the day...straight out of The Eye.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pong said:

    If there's a *surprise* UKIP gain, IMO, it will be louth and horncastle.

    I had Sittingbourne & Sheppey and/or Gillingham & Rainham down as potential under-the-radar gains. Less confident after this poll, though...
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
    Elementary has one of the biggest syndication deals in the US currently and will be renewed and probably beyond next season. For the same reason Forever will get renewed despite its comparative ratings, it is prime syndication fodder. As non-standard procedurals they are perfect for this market.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    dr_spyn said:

    MP_SE said:

    Norm said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
    If Farage loses in Thanet then you may be right. Suggestions from speaking to activists in Rochester and Strood that Kelly Tolhurst will capture the seat from Reckless.
    A shame as Tolhurst comes across as moronic. The hustings before the by-election was painful, completely out of her depth.
    She seemed to be absolutely hopeless at the By-election. Was surprised she was given a second chance.
    It wouldn't take a lot to find a more experienced candidate. Even if there was noone in the constituency looking a little further afield wouldn't go amiss. Im pretty sure the other candidate on the shortlist was a former barrister so I would like to think she comes across significantly better than Tolhurst.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Bad Al is not going to make it through this campaign. He's frothing so much, you can barely hear about his book at the moment.

    Send for the Elvis impersonator!

    Alastair Campbell‏@campbellclaret·2 mins2 minutes ago
    Please tell me our 'Prime Minister' didn't post on Twitter 'secret film' of an @AlexSalmond joke? The only joke is @David_Cameron as PM
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I forgot to add - if you love Sherlock - do you have the Complete BBC Radio series? There's 84 shows with Clive Merrison and Michael Williams [replaced by Andrew Sachs when he died in the last ten].

    I've worn out the cassette tapes and CDs - now have them all as MP3s and know off by heart. We played Name That Tune within 5 secs of each episode...IIRC the set costs about £100 on Amazon, but you can find an alternative... Vanilla me and will send them to you on a flash drive if all else fails.
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Casino_Royale said:

    chestnut said:

    So a Con-Lab swing of 4.5% in largely southern seats.

    A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).

    11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.5: ICM (last six)
    6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
    6.5 Yougov (last 10)
    5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    5.4 Comres (last 6)

    It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.

    Not sure I understand your data.
    Apologies.

    They are the Con-Lab swing in the Southern region based on averaged subsamples for those six pollsters.

    So, Ipsos are currently showing an 11.7% swing from Con-Lab across the south in their national polls, ICM 7.5% etc.

    This poll is below all the national samples (but they include london). However, Ipsos stands out like a sore thumb with a way above average swing to Labour.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Ladbrokes have UKIP 9/4 in North Thanet and 11/4 in Sittingbourne & Sheppey.

    So they were certainly thought to be competitive in those seats.

    On the basis of these numbers they may be under 15% in those seats. What does that imply nationally?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Artist said:

    Going on the UKIP Ashcroft figures: Boston 35%, Thurrock 36%, Great Yarmouth 31%, S Basildon 29%, Castle Point 36%

    That'd mean UKIP are only averaging 4.3% in the other five. Pretty unlikely.

    The poll could also indicate the Tories are building up big leads in their safe seats though.

    One always has to be cautious when comparing one pollster's results with another's. A rise in vote share of 16% overall is pretty dramatic, but will probably vary by constituency. A rise of 7-8% in one seat could be matched by a rise of 25% in another.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    So is anyone surprised by the details in today's Times about the timing of Lord Janner's 'health problems' ?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Scrapheap, a terrifying punchline could hit the electorate within 45 seconds?

    This Whimsical Mirth Distraction (WMD) is a clear, authoritative and extensive proof of Cameron's danger to Britain.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I've no interest in the Cumberbatch version. At all. Martin Clunes as Sir Arthur was acceptable as Arthur & George - the book is much better re the founding of the Court of Appeal. I've read it twice.
    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    I think it'll be renewed, but Kitty was a horror diversion, she had nothing cosmic to add. I'd rather the maths nerd had the attention.

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
    I was against Kitty at first but she grew on me. But if, as it appears, she's just gone for good, one does wonder what the point of her plotline was. I hope it gets one more season at least; I've still not worked up the interest to watch Sherlock, as I was not enthralled by the first episode at all.
  • Itwasrigged
    Itwasrigged Posts: 154
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
    Elementary has one of the biggest syndication deals in the US currently and will be renewed and probably beyond next season. For the same reason Forever will get renewed despite its comparative ratings, it is prime syndication fodder. As non-standard procedurals they are perfect for this market.
    I enjoy both and even bought the DVDs.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    chestnut said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    chestnut said:

    So a Con-Lab swing of 4.5% in largely southern seats.

    A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).

    11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.5: ICM (last six)
    6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
    6.5 Yougov (last 10)
    5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    5.4 Comres (last 6)

    It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.

    Not sure I understand your data.
    Apologies.

    They are the Con-Lab swing in the Southern region based on averaged subsamples for those six pollsters.

    So, Ipsos are currently showing an 11.7% swing from Con-Lab across the south in their national polls, ICM 7.5% etc.

    This poll is below all the national samples (but they include london). However, Ipsos stands out like a sore thumb with a way above average swing to Labour.
    Are you sure the polls show such huge swings to Labour in the South?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MikeL said:

    Ladbrokes have UKIP 9/4 in North Thanet and 11/4 in Sittingbourne & Sheppey.

    So they were certainly thought to be competitive in those seats.

    On the basis of these numbers they may be under 15% in those seats. What does that imply nationally?

    Just back the Tories in Sittingbourne & Sheppey tbh.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Looking good for CON overall majority!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Ave It, always good to have your objective analysis :)
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Bad Al is not going to make it through this campaign. He's frothing so much, you can barely hear about his book at the moment.

    Send for the Elvis impersonator!

    Alastair Campbell‏@campbellclaret·2 mins2 minutes ago
    Please tell me our 'Prime Minister' didn't post on Twitter 'secret film' of an @AlexSalmond joke? The only joke is @David_Cameron as PM

    Lol
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Plato said:

    I forgot to add - if you love Sherlock - do you have the Complete BBC Radio series? There's 84 shows with Clive Merrison and Michael Williams [replaced by Andrew Sachs when he died in the last ten].

    I've worn out the cassette tapes and CDs - now have them all as MP3s and know off by heart. We played Name That Tune within 5 secs of each episode...IIRC the set costs about £100 on Amazon, but you can find an alternative... Vanilla me and will send them to you on a flash drive if all else fails.

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
    Very generous offer indeed. I might get a couple of them and see if they are my speed (I confess I have never listened to a radio drama, as I have never been a radio listener, but in recent years have gotten into audiobooks quite heavily), otherwise would be a waste.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    East Worthing and Shoreham, and Forest of Dean are not actually seats were UKIP where expected to do well.

    So apart from those 2 out of 10 seats not being on the likely UKIP seats, this polls is pretty bad all the way down to the specific constituency question and the 2010 breakdown, in which UKIP is surprisingly doing the same or worse in those seats than the national average.

    It is very surprising that UKIP are not doing better in their targets than nationally.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I like Forever, though its a bit fluffy. I do like Motive - you can watch it all using Hola - it fixes your IP address location.

    Its a twist on cop drama - you're told up front who the Victim and Killer are. ctv.ca/Motive/video.aspx
    Itwasrigged said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Plato said:

    OT US shows cancelled, renewed or pending imdb.com/list/ls076992939/?ref_=3p_3p_vi2#1

    It predicts grimness for Elementary - I thought that was pretty much guaranteed one more season for syndication reasons (this site has it has 'certain to be renewed' http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2015/04/21/cbs-predictions-the-good-wife-is-likely-to-be-renewed/390271/)
    Elementary has one of the biggest syndication deals in the US currently and will be renewed and probably beyond next season. For the same reason Forever will get renewed despite its comparative ratings, it is prime syndication fodder. As non-standard procedurals they are perfect for this market.
    I enjoy both and even bought the DVDs.
  • Norm
    Norm Posts: 1,251
    dr_spyn said:

    MP_SE said:

    Norm said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    isam said:

    It bodes bad!

    Credit to you sam, nice to see someone be honest to a poll! :)

    I stand by my view that UKIP are a flash in the pan like the BNP ~2009 and Greens ~1989 rather than the start of something substantial.
    If Farage loses in Thanet then you may be right. Suggestions from speaking to activists in Rochester and Strood that Kelly Tolhurst will capture the seat from Reckless.
    A shame as Tolhurst comes across as moronic. The hustings before the by-election was painful, completely out of her depth.
    She seemed to be absolutely hopeless at the By-election. Was surprised she was given a second chance.
    She is genuinely local and has an attractive look and personality which seems to go down well with voters. She also has had the benefit of another five months in the job as a candidate in which time she has heavily worked the constituency. In the by-election she was inexperienced at this level which I agree showed up at times and despite the huge resources supplied by central office only had one month after her "primary" to make an impact against the entrenched Reckless. Voters were determined to make their point which they duly did although his majority was less than expected. Nothing is certain of course but personally I'm expecting a Tory win this time despite Reckless's incumbency advantage.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    Interesting subsamples:

    Cat C1: Lab 26 UK 21 (Con 37)
    Cat C2: Lab 26 UK 20 (Con 44)
    Cat DE: Lab 32 UK 30 (Con 30)

    Find a constituency with very few ABs, Tories with no hope of winning and willing to switch to UKIP and that's a close run thing.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Labour must be totally demoralised by now.

    This is the fourth day now they've had both the SNP and the Tories dominating the headlines, fighting it out between each other but in every case, in every story, it's Labour being damaged.

    Perhaps even funnier is that despite this, Labour are still holding on in England and could still hit their 270 target for EICINPIPM.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The methodological guts of Elections Etc. - of particular note I thought was that they do detect a first-time incumbency bonus:

    4. Use Ashcroft constituency polls and individual-level data kindly provided by YouGov to identify constituencies where parties are doing particularly well or particularly badly, and apply adjustments to the hypothetical results accordingly.

    The most important factors within England and Wales are to do with incumbency.

    Those Conservative MPs who took their seat from an MP from another party in 2010 are doing a couple of points better than other Tory candidates. This seems to be an instance of the classic “sophomore surge”, which is common in the US and also seemed to help many first-term Labour MPs hold on in 2001 despite a swing to the Conservatives.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/methodology-for-the-electionsetc-com-forecast/
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Andrew Hawkins‏@Andrew_ComRes·22 secs23 seconds ago
    ComRes/ITV News: in Con-held UKIP targets 1 in 10 Lab voters and 6 in 10 Kippers wd prefer Cam as PM after #GE2015''

    Which makes you wonder if these voters are Labour/UKIP voters at all, and if the swings calculated by those in the know are really taking place.

    Why no labour UKIP targets?
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Tissue_Price said:

    The methodological guts of Elections Etc. - of particular note I thought was that they do detect a first-time incumbency bonus:

    4. Use Ashcroft constituency polls and individual-level data kindly provided by YouGov to identify constituencies where parties are doing particularly well or particularly badly, and apply adjustments to the hypothetical results accordingly.

    The most important factors within England and Wales are to do with incumbency.

    Those Conservative MPs who took their seat from an MP from another party in 2010 are doing a couple of points better than other Tory candidates. This seems to be an instance of the classic “sophomore surge”, which is common in the US and also seemed to help many first-term Labour MPs hold on in 2001 despite a swing to the Conservatives.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/methodology-for-the-electionsetc-com-forecast/

    That does not chime with what Nick Palmer is hearing on the doorstep, so it must be wrong.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Clive Merrison knocks Jeremy Brett into a cocked hat.
    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Plato said:

    Clive Merrison knocks Jeremy Brett into a cocked hat.

    dyedwoolie said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, last series of Sherlock was bloody dreadful. Scrappy Doo meets nepotism, logic gives way to Mr and Mrs Watson and their kooky friend Sherlock.

    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    Brett is to Sherlock as Hickson is to Marple, accept no imitations
    Poppycock
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    "A big issue for political gamblers at the next UK General Election will be whether we can trust opinion polls that are carried out online, rather than by the traditional routes of telephone or face-to-face interviews. There's a huge debate on the issue within the opinion poll community so it won't just be the party officials who will be biting their finger nails on election night. In 2001 all the traditional pollsters wildly exaggerated the Labour lead and underestimated the Tories. The one opinion poll to get closest was the online firm, YouGov the question is whether they will be able to repeat the performance next time." Mike Smithson, 2004.

    Every so often I accidentally click one of the older categories and get gems like this :)
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Sean_F said:

    chestnut said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    chestnut said:

    So a Con-Lab swing of 4.5% in largely southern seats.

    A quick reminder of what the national polls are showing as the swing in the South (@ Sunday).

    11.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.5: ICM (last six)
    6.6 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)
    6.5 Yougov (last 10)
    5.5 Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    5.4 Comres (last 6)

    It isn't hard to spot the probable anomaly.

    Not sure I understand your data.
    Apologies.

    They are the Con-Lab swing in the Southern region based on averaged subsamples for those six pollsters.

    So, Ipsos are currently showing an 11.7% swing from Con-Lab across the south in their national polls, ICM 7.5% etc.

    This poll is below all the national samples (but they include london). However, Ipsos stands out like a sore thumb with a way above average swing to Labour.
    Are you sure the polls show such huge swings to Labour in the South?
    The nationals do, yes.

    Labour are starting from a very low point in the mid teens in both the SW and SE. Throw in Lib Dem switchers and there's a quick boost.

    Look at Hove, MK South.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder when we're going to get a ComRes national poll?

    Probably a single one and that in the last few days before the election.
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    So who still thinks Ukip will win more than 2 or 3 seats?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Clive Merrison in A Study In Scarlet, assume most of these are on YouTube.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGLEjHbBmmg
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    taffys said:

    ''Andrew Hawkins‏@Andrew_ComRes·22 secs23 seconds ago
    ComRes/ITV News: in Con-held UKIP targets 1 in 10 Lab voters and 6 in 10 Kippers wd prefer Cam as PM after #GE2015''

    Which makes you wonder if these voters are Labour/UKIP voters at all, and if the swings calculated by those in the know are really taking place.

    Why no labour UKIP targets?

    Well it doesn't matter what PM preferences are in that poll, since all of them according to it will be CON holds anyway.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Its now 34 weeks since the Jay report on Rotherham and how many plods, social workers, childrens home managers, councillors and council officials have been arrested ? I believe the answer to be zero, zero, zero, zero and zero.

    In early September Parliament was told that South Yorkshire plods had been actively collaborating with child abusers:

    ' The Conservative MP Nicola Blackwood said the committee had heard evidence in private from the Home Office researcher that her 2002 report had been greeted with hostility by South Yorkshire police. She said they had heard evidence that the researcher had been contacted by two officers who threatened to pass her name to the groomers in Rotherham and she had been left in fear of her life.

    The Liberal Democrat MP Julian Huppert suggested to the current South Yorkshire chief constable, David Crompton, that there had been an active conspiracy involving police officers and questioned how the public could now trust South Yorkshire police. '

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/09/researcher-rotherham-abuse-feared-for-life-police-visit

    Yet Home Secretary Theresa May and Policing Minister Mike Penning have said nothing and done nothing about this.

    Does anyone think their inaction is acceptable ?

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Morris_Dancer said:



    Saw the series 2 finale of The 100. Really rather liked it.

    As with the first series, the finale left me a little confused and uncertain how I felt about it and where it was going, but how they picked up season 2 won me over completely, so I'm confident they can do so again. Much as I like good procedurals or more formulaic serial dramas, I miss more shows where I cannot be sure what will happen next.

    On topic, despite some fluctuations am I right in thinking UKIP are are likely to win 2-5 seats as have been this whole time?
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