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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived
An analysis of data from the UK’s longest-running study of electoral behaviour has revealed how the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes.
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Ed is a stud muffin!0
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"UKIP if you want to. The lady's NOT for kipping!"
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https://twitter.com/cooledmiliband/status/590240348204625921Scrapheap_as_was said:Ed is a stud muffin!
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That doesn't really chime with their results in the local elections last year, where they made progress in traditional Labour heartlands.0
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Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:
Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.
The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.0 -
FPT:
I know of one well regarded school in South Bucks that is so fed up with boys struggling to adapt because they were not bright enough to pass the 11+ without their parents spending a fortune on coaching that they are bringing in their own entrance exam.
As I said my youngest granddaughter has just passed, in her class three boys passed with the aid of huge coaching. These boys are going to the aforementioned school, have never been in the top group in any subject in all their time at primary school, and will struggle big time when they move up.
My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?
Much as I love grammar schools the coaching aspect is an issue, and one that seems to be being addressed by individual schools setting their own entrance exams.
A grammar school in every town will also help.0 -
Ilford still has a Grammar School each for boys and girls. I went to the boys' school, natch.nigel4england said:FPT:
I know of one well regarded school in South Bucks that is so fed up with boys struggling to adapt because they were not bright enough to pass the 11+ without their parents spending a fortune on coaching that they are bringing in their own entrance exam.
As I said my youngest granddaughter has just passed, in her class three boys passed with the aid of huge coaching. These boys are going to the aforementioned school, have never been in the top group in any subject in all their time at primary school, and will struggle big time when they move up.
My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?
Much as I love grammar schools the coaching aspect is an issue, and one that seems to be being addressed by individual schools setting their own entrance exams.
A grammar school in every town will also help.0 -
Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.0
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What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?blackburn63 said:Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:
Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.
The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.0 -
If it is true that the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes, then be prepared for UKIP to take a larger % of the vote than the polls suggest.
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide, even if you are a foster parent in Rotherham.0 -
Naturally it was disappointing, I know for a fact that both labour and the tories were very surprised by it. The figures were miles away from the canvassing results of all 3 parties and those in the local press.antifrank said:
What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?blackburn63 said:Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:
Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.
The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.
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Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide0 -
Perhaps a reason why non grammars in Kent do ok - big % of non grammar kids who have had some extensive tutoring even if it was in vain for the exams.The_Woodpecker said:Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.
A rising tide lifts all boats.0 -
It is in Bucks too, one of the boys parents spent £6,000 on coaching.The_Woodpecker said:Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.
My granddaughter did some test papers, didn't get the required pass mark as she blew it on the day, but got in on the headmistress' strong recommendation.0 -
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
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Performance in a local election turnout of of 20 odd % is not evidence of a future good performance in a GE turnout of 60 odd % especially in Labour strongholds .Artist said:That doesn't really chime with their results in the local elections last year, where they made progress in traditional Labour heartlands.
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Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
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In Bucks I have seen the council pay for coaching for some of the disadvantaged children taking the exam to level up the playing field. don't have a problem with that either.nigel4england said:
It is in Bucks too, one of the boys parents spent £6,000 on coaching.The_Woodpecker said:Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.
My granddaughter did some test papers, didn't get the required pass mark as she blew it on the day, but got in on the headmistress' strong recommendation.0 -
How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.0
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Given that apparantly the entire professional and managerial class are in the Barrymore party anyway, I'd think it would be a positive boon.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide0 -
Just cos you're paranoid...nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide0 -
Look at Nigel, going on TV saying we not let the Africans set foot on European soil.
Of course, the commentariat isn;t listening.
But the public are.0 -
blackburn63 said:
Naturally it was disappointing, I know for a fact that both labour and the tories were very surprised by it. The figures were miles away from the canvassing results of all 3 parties and those in the local press.antifrank said:
What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?blackburn63 said:Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:
Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.
The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.
I was genuinely surprised to see how big the Conservative lead over Labour was in that seat.antifrank said:
What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?blackburn63 said:Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:
Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.
The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.
If the Ashcroft poll were to be repeated on the day, that would mean a UKIP vote of c.10,000. It's possible that in this seat, more have come from Labour than the Conservatives, in which case the canvasser's pessimism would be justified.0 -
@ScottyNational: Business : Shares in Tesco jumped after their £6bn loss is explained as Full Fiscal Responsibility and nothing to worry about.0
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Pretty much sums up the mindset of Kippers.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide0 -
dyedwoolie said:
How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
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I'd have thought kippers wouldn't care as they are a completely legit party. Anything else would suggest some kippers themselves think the party they support is a bit 'out there'. I mean there is no suggestion your average kippers figurine panini immigrant sticker book has all the white Christian teams filled in first. Or anything similar.Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
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I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
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From Mr Liddle's Speccy column...
And the Labour leader Ed Miliband made a hugely useful contribution with a tweet saying that the people who died were among the poorest in the world and something should be done. I suppose if they had been moderately affluent it would have been less of a tragedy, Ed, you halfwit. Again, with Hodges and Miliband and the ludicrous Izzy Saunders, the response was all about infantile attitudinalising, nothing more than a wish to tell everybody else that they care more than every-body else and that therefore they are right.
I really dislike all the Something Must Be Done crowd - who don't actually do anything bar demanding sacking someone whose opinions they don't like. How completely self-righteous and pointless.
Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.0 -
Mr Goodwin tweeted a link to the original article the other day.nigel4england said:If it is true that the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes, then be prepared for UKIP to take a larger % of the vote than the polls suggest.
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide, even if you are a foster parent in Rotherham.
1. first Evans/Mellon article
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv005.full
2. Goodwin/Ford response
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv012.full
3. Final word from Evans/Mellon.
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv013.full0 -
No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
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I really dislike all the Something Must Be Done crowd - who don't actually do anything bar demanding sacking someone whose opinions they don't like. How completely self-righteous and pointless.Plato said:From Mr Liddle's Speccy column...
And the Labour leader Ed Miliband made a hugely useful contribution with a tweet saying that the people who died were among the poorest in the world and something should be done. I suppose if they had been moderately affluent it would have been less of a tragedy, Ed, you halfwit. Again, with Hodges and Miliband and the ludicrous Izzy Saunders, the response was all about infantile attitudinalising, nothing more than a wish to tell everybody else that they care more than every-body else and that therefore they are right.
Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.
"Something must be done" gave us the Iraq War.0 -
Any odds available on Bez.?He did win the channel 4 house thing.He has the ability to cut through on fracking and make a national statement on fracking.0
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Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
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"Something must be done" gave us the Iraq War.Sean_F said:
I really dislike all the Something Must Be Done crowd - who don't actually do anything bar demanding sacking someone whose opinions they don't like. How completely self-righteous and pointless.Plato said:From Mr Liddle's Speccy column...
And the Labour leader Ed Miliband made a hugely useful contribution with a tweet saying that the people who died were among the poorest in the world and something should be done. I suppose if they had been moderately affluent it would have been less of a tragedy, Ed, you halfwit. Again, with Hodges and Miliband and the ludicrous Izzy Saunders, the response was all about infantile attitudinalising, nothing more than a wish to tell everybody else that they care more than every-body else and that therefore they are right.
Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.
HMS Farage could sail out and pick up any floating Christians and put all the others on some sort of barge with homing instincts0 -
Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.nigel4england said:
Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
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£6k vs £100k+£6knigel4england said:
It is in Bucks too, one of the boys parents spent £6,000 on coaching.The_Woodpecker said:Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.
My granddaughter did some test papers, didn't get the required pass mark as she blew it on the day, but got in on the headmistress' strong recommendation.
its a no brainer0 -
Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.
Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.
Nah, that'd never work...
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I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.dyedwoolie said:
No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.-1 -
Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.Neil said:
Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.nigel4england said:
Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.0 -
''Nah, that'd never work...''
The honorable member for Tripoli South there...0 -
I've heard that the Spooks are studying photographs from Kipper hustings using secret Fish-Head facial analysis software, as part of the Smokehouse programme. Be afraid.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide0 -
Norfolk North will be rather closer than the stats suggest. Lamb hold, but not by much.Pulpstar said:
I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.dyedwoolie said:
No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.0 -
Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:
- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.
- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.
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One immediate take from the Evans/Mellon piece is that in seats where the Labour vote fell in the New Labour years 1997+, those voters should transfer to UKIP.
This also supports Mr Smithson's theory of turnout returning to 70%+
http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm0 -
Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.dyedwoolie said:
Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.Neil said:
Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.nigel4england said:
Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
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LOL!Neil said:
Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.nigel4england said:
Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.0 -
I can't see anything other than Conservative gains in North Devon, Solihull, Chippenham, Mid-Dorset, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Portsmouth South, and Taunton Deane.Pulpstar said:
I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.dyedwoolie said:
No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.
A great night for the Lib Dems would see them holding the three Cornwall seats, Torbay, Kingston & Surbiton, Brecon & Radnor, Cheadle, Berwick on Tweed, Eastbourne, Cheltenham, and Hazel Grove against the Tories.0 -
If Labour are plus 42 seats, they will have taken 80-90 off the Tories and LiberalsAllyPally_Rob said:Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:
- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.
- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.
If the Cons lose net 40, they'll have lost ca 60 to Labour,0 -
Nigel4,
What was worrying about the Joyce Thacker interview was the complete lack of self-awareness. How did she get to a senior position with the IQ of a matchstick?0 -
Sigh..! - these contrived threads are becoming positively Pavlovian.0
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These are my thoughts too - Portsmouth South is my litmus test as to who whether OGH has called it right for the Lib Dems though !Sean_F said:
I can't see anything other than Conservative gains in North Devon, Solihull, Chippenham, Mid-Dorset, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Portsmouth South, and Taunton Deane.Pulpstar said:
I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.dyedwoolie said:
No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.
A great night for the Lib Dems would see them holding the three Cornwall seats, Torbay, Kingston & Surbiton, Brecon & Radnor, Cheadle, Berwick on Tweed, Eastbourne, Cheltenham, and Hazel Grove against the Tories.0 -
In response to the sheer number of UKIP reporting respondees! social services have no option but to reallocate children into approved grooming gangs to counterbalance the trend and smooth the numbers.Neil said:
Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.dyedwoolie said:
Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.Neil said:
Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.nigel4england said:
Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.0 -
By going on a Common Purpose training programme.CD13 said:Nigel4,
What was worrying about the Joyce Thacker interview was the complete lack of self-awareness. How did she get to a senior position with the IQ of a matchstick?0 -
If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
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My overall point being that Miliband starts in a stronger starting position than Kinnock and Cameron starts from a far weaker position than Major did.dyedwoolie said:
If Labour are plus 42 seats, they will have taken 80-90 off the Tories and LiberalsAllyPally_Rob said:Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:
- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.
- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.
If the Cons lose net 40, they'll have lost ca 60 to Labour,0 -
I'd agree with that.Pulpstar said:
I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.dyedwoolie said:
No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.
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The one thing I am fairly sure of in Portsmouth South is that this is a two horse race, and that Labour, UKIP and Hancock are no hopers.0
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Yes, agrees. Although Kinnock was not facing JockmageddonAllyPally_Rob said:
My overall point being that Miliband starts in a stronger starting position than Kinnock and Cameron starts from a far weaker position than Major did.dyedwoolie said:
If Labour are plus 42 seats, they will have taken 80-90 off the Tories and LiberalsAllyPally_Rob said:Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:
- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.
- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.
If the Cons lose net 40, they'll have lost ca 60 to Labour,0 -
@patrickwintour: Salmond's idea of a joke or a threat of mayhem ? Salmond says he will write the Labour budget. https://t.co/E3iuxYfjZ60
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Do remember that kids mature at different times. When I was seven, I was in the remedial class of a very state ordinary junior school in west London.nigel4england said:My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?
And I went on to go to Cambridge. I was just (a) young in my year, and (b) a late developer.
If your grandson is just a late developer, then not coaching him to get through the 11+ is doing him a great disservice.0 -
Eck's back
@David_Cameron
This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.
https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …
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Neil and Mr Woollie
Did they check the political affiliations of the grooming gangs beforehand?0 -
Some paedophiles were dealt with by being blasted into space in one man prison vessels. Unfortunately an 8 year old boy was placed on one of the vessels by mistake. This was the one thing we didnt want to happen.dyedwoolie said:
In response to the sheer number of UKIP reporting respondees! social services have no option but to reallocate children into approved grooming gangs to counterbalance the trend and smooth the numbers.Neil said:
Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.dyedwoolie said:
Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.Neil said:
Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.nigel4england said:
Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRRw1ERj2Gc0 -
Yes, the gangs were properly background checked and found to be safe groomers affiliated with parties that social services approves of.CD13 said:Neil and Mr Woollie
Did they check the political affiliations of the grooming gangs beforehand?0 -
Greatest show ever made. Morris for PMNeil said:
Some paedophiles were dealt with by being blasted into space in one man prison vessels. Unfortunately an 8 year old boy was placed on one of the vessels by mistake. This was the one thing we didnt want to happen.dyedwoolie said:
In response to the sheer number of UKIP reporting respondees! social services have no option but to reallocate children into approved grooming gangs to counterbalance the trend and smooth the numbers.Neil said:
Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.dyedwoolie said:
Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.Neil said:
Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.nigel4england said:
Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?Neil said:
Wow.nigel4england said:
I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.Neil said:
Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?nigel4england said:
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRRw1ERj2Gc0 -
MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?
Do you still have to supplement it?
0 -
Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.Stereotomy said:Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.
Nah, that'd never work...
Do as the Aussies do, intercept early and tow them back to their point of departure. Absolutely criminal to bring them to Europe, just encourages them.
Of course they know the risk when they set out so I am not sure why they are presented as innocent victims rather than as calculating criminals breaking the law and in the process endangering others.
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#cameronettes is trending.0
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Do as the Aussies do, intercept early and tow them back to their point of departure. Absolutely criminal to bring them to Europe, just encourages them.FalseFlag said:
Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.Stereotomy said:Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.
Nah, that'd never work...
Of course they know the risk when they set out so I am not sure why they are presented as innocent victims rather than as calculating criminals breaking the law and in the process endangering others.
Send em home tae think again. Well, as far as thought is possible whilst being raped, starved or tortured.0 -
He will get some coaching, he is good at numbers and problem solving but his English work is not great.rcs1000 said:
Do remember that kids mature at different times. When I was seven, I was in the remedial class of a very state ordinary junior school in west London.nigel4england said:My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?
And I went on to go to Cambridge. I was just (a) young in my year, and (b) a late developer.
If your grandson is just a late developer, then not coaching him to get through the 11+ is doing him a great disservice.
Anyway he will be the England goalkeeper in the 2030 World Cup!0 -
No it wouldn't.nigel4england said:FPT:
A grammar school in every town will also help.0 -
The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.MarkHopkins said:MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?
Do you still have to supplement it?
0 -
It wouldn't if your objective is not to raise social mobility or give bright working class kids a chance to get on.BenM said:
No it wouldn't.nigel4england said:FPT:
A grammar school in every town will also help.
Race to the bottom, you win.0 -
Schools need a far greater emphasis on practical and vocational skills with as much effort put into bringing up the technical and manual skills of weird iq albino children as the educational and mathematical skills of metalwork and sport dudes0
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"If this analysis is right then LAB would appear to be less vulnerable to UKIP than had been thought"
Labour's current support no. But during the New Labour years they lost a lot of supporters, who stopped voting rather than transfer to the Conservatives (perhaps due to the Conservatives being consider the party of the rich, for the rich).
The ICM (tiny!) subsample used as a thread header the other day hinted at this. With UKIP's highest vote share being in Labour seats, with a majority of <10%.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/21/these-icm-sub-samples-are-very-small-but-the-detail-of-this-breakdown-is-fascinating/0 -
Alex Salmond being Salmond tbh.SeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?
Bad cop is bad cop !
He's probably far enough ahead in Gordon to win, but he has to be careful mind - Con -> LD tactical switching there has a coherent intellectual argument, and sound basis.0 -
I shall be donating 10% of any net profit from my betting wagers on the GE to PB as a thank you albeit that is in the unlikely event I do come out on top.MikeSmithson said:
The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.MarkHopkins said:MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?
Do you still have to supplement it?
should that arise, it will mostly be thanks to isam & ed being crap.......0 -
The SNP are equally happy with a Conservative-led government and a Labour minority government. The only government that doesn't suit them is a Labour majority government.SeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?0 -
Any polls due today?0
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Lab on around 310 with the Lib Dems able to solely support them isn't brilliant either.antifrank said:
The SNP are equally happy with a Conservative-led government and a Labour minority government. The only government that doesn't suit them is a Labour majority government.SeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?0 -
No, Farage won't let them in.murali_s said:Any polls due today?
0 -
A Tory government in Westminster being a bogeyman they can create scare stories about gets them much closer to independence. Remember the SNP have the ultimate goal of independence, not more powers or money within the UK. If anything them being king maker within the current system and it working will delay independence as unionist parties can show that Scotland can have a real say in the governance of the nation and that independence is not a necessity for Scotland to do well.SeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?0 -
A weak Tory government that has just enough numbers to allow Cameron to cling on to power having talked up the illegitimacy of Scottish MPs is the best result for the SNP to a) survive and b) push the indy case. Basically a rerun of the Tory conduct in relation to Ireland a century back. It minimises the risk to the SNP of being in government in any shape or form (LD-style guilt by association) and allows them to make a forceful case that Scotland is being oppressed by an English-only government.SeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?
To put it another way the SNP would like a Tory government because they can see that Cameron would rather be PM of England than let Miliband be PM of Britain.0 -
Jason Groves @JasonGroves1
Ed Miliband says he will pay Mansion Tax on his £2.7m home, but insists it is not a mansion. 'That's just a term that's used...
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"This footage will shock you".TGOHF said:Eck's back
@David_Cameron
This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.
https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …
Cameron has turned into a naff Buzzfeed sponsored advert 'you'll be shocked what these celebs eat' ect.0 -
True. The SNP need to ensure Labour don't do too well. Which is why they're assisting the Conservatives right now.Pulpstar said:
Lab on around 310 with the Lib Dems able to solely support them isn't brilliant either.antifrank said:
The SNP are equally happy with a Conservative-led government and a Labour minority government. The only government that doesn't suit them is a Labour majority government.SeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?0 -
@tissueprice
Only just seen the question you asked.. You mean South Thanet?
Nothing has changed IMO I think Farage will win very easily Ukip 4/6 probably the best bet
As for the £500@4.2 laying Tories... Weird they just don't go 3.750 -
Eck will be delighted - he must have been fuming at the attention Saint Nicola has been getting.AllyPally_Rob said:
"This footage will shock you".TGOHF said:Eck's back
@David_Cameron
This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.
https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …
Cameron has turned into a naff Buzzfeed sponsored advert 'you'll be shocked what these celebs eat' ect.0 -
IF labour goes into coalition with the SNP, why on earth would any left leaning Scot ever vote labour again?
IF labour want to win back ground in Scotland, surely the whole idea is to punish people for voting SNP, not reward them!!0 -
It would be me that's crap as well!Scrapheap_as_was said:
I shall be donating 10% of any net profit from my betting wagers on the GE to PB as a thank you albeit that is in the unlikely event I do come out on top.MikeSmithson said:
The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.MarkHopkins said:MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?
Do you still have to supplement it?
should that arise, it will mostly be thanks to isam & ed being crap.......0 -
Benefits of a Tory government for them:SeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?
1) More annoyance at having a right-wing government forced on Scotland, good for independence.
2) Possibility of leaving the EU, giving them an opening for another referendum if they think they can win it.
3) Tory boundary rules get them loads more Westminster seats, because they're tightly bound to voter registration, and Scotland has massively out-registered England.0 -
Just noticed the Graun live feed reporting a Press Association study of the use of Twitter by PPCs:
"Of the seven main parties, the SNP has managed to get all of its parliamentary candidates on Twitter - while Ukip has only managed to do so with 52% of its prospective MPs.
The Scottish nationalists and Ukip top-and-tailed a Press Association table on Twitter participation. Labour were in second place with 92% of candidates on the micro-blogging site, while you can expect to see tweets from 84% of the Tories’ hopefuls.
Plaid Cymru had 83% of its candidates on Twitter, compared to 77% of the Greens’ and 69% of the Lib Dems".
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The SNP want to destroy Labour in Scotland, thus cutting a major thread binding them to the UK and firmly establishing the SNP as the sole voice for Scotland. And feeding the Conservative English nationalist frenzy will help them tooSeanT said:WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?
If they get their 50 seats, they're the big winners of the election, no matter who ends up the as the Westminster government0 -
I too am willing to help fund the site after my election bets are settled. I have had some promising ones from malcolmg, antifrank and of course Jacks ARSE...Scrapheap_as_was said:
I shall be donating 10% of any net profit from my betting wagers on the GE to PB as a thank you albeit that is in the unlikely event I do come out on top.MikeSmithson said:
The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.MarkHopkins said:MikeSmithson said:
If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.TheWatcher said:
I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.dyedwoolie said:How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.
Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?
Do you still have to supplement it?
should that arise, it will mostly be thanks to isam & ed being crap.......0 -
Will he claim it back on expenses though?Tykejohnno said:
Jason Groves @JasonGroves1
Ed Miliband says he will pay Mansion Tax on his £2.7m home, but insists it is not a mansion. 'That's just a term that's used...0 -
Absolutely, it wouldn't surprise me if the SNP leaked the footage to the Tories anyway. The SNP and Tories at each others throats works in both parties favour. Labour can do bugg*r all to change the narrative.TGOHF said:
Eck will be delighted - he must have been fuming at the attention Saint Nicola has been getting.AllyPally_Rob said:
"This footage will shock you".TGOHF said:Eck's back
@David_Cameron
This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.
https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …
Cameron has turned into a naff Buzzfeed sponsored advert 'you'll be shocked what these celebs eat' ect.0 -
No, that encourages people traffickers. Like kidnappers.
IIRC since Australia took on a zero tolerance stance - the number of boat people like this has virtually stopped.
Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.Stereotomy said:Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.
Nah, that'd never work...
0 -
Looking at the LibDems seats it does appear there are 3 without an incumbent which have gone to the Tories.The LibDem brand has been damaged by coalition with the heartless Tories and so it will fall on the strengths of personality,independent thinking and constituency reputation.For these reasons I suggest evens at Corals is value for a LD hold in Torbay and St Ives is still backable for a LD hold at just under evens.Both candidates may just get over the line using their personal brand rather than their parties and certainly no pictures of Clegg on the leaflets.Places like these,Bath and Yeovil,the LibDems are like bindweed and you just can't get rid of them.0
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It's a different world isn't it.Tykejohnno said:
Jason Groves @JasonGroves1
Ed Miliband says he will pay Mansion Tax on his £2.7m home, but insists it is not a mansion. 'That's just a term that's used...
Reminds me of Blair's claim a week or so ago, that he wasn't rich, and his massive earnings were all spent on 'infrastructure'.0
