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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived
An analysis of data from the UK’s longest-running study of electoral behaviour has revealed how the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes.
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Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.
The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.
I know of one well regarded school in South Bucks that is so fed up with boys struggling to adapt because they were not bright enough to pass the 11+ without their parents spending a fortune on coaching that they are bringing in their own entrance exam.
As I said my youngest granddaughter has just passed, in her class three boys passed with the aid of huge coaching. These boys are going to the aforementioned school, have never been in the top group in any subject in all their time at primary school, and will struggle big time when they move up.
My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?
Much as I love grammar schools the coaching aspect is an issue, and one that seems to be being addressed by individual schools setting their own entrance exams.
A grammar school in every town will also help.
Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide, even if you are a foster parent in Rotherham.
A rising tide lifts all boats.
My granddaughter did some test papers, didn't get the required pass mark as she blew it on the day, but got in on the headmistress' strong recommendation.
And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.
So little trust.
Of course, the commentariat isn;t listening.
But the public are.
If the Ashcroft poll were to be repeated on the day, that would mean a UKIP vote of c.10,000. It's possible that in this seat, more have come from Labour than the Conservatives, in which case the canvasser's pessimism would be justified.
1. first Evans/Mellon article
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv005.full
2. Goodwin/Ford response
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv012.full
3. Final word from Evans/Mellon.
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv013.full
"Something must be done" gave us the Iraq War.
HMS Farage could sail out and pick up any floating Christians and put all the others on some sort of barge with homing instincts
its a no brainer
Nah, that'd never work...
This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.
The honorable member for Tripoli South there...
- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.
- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.
This also supports Mr Smithson's theory of turnout returning to 70%+
http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
A great night for the Lib Dems would see them holding the three Cornwall seats, Torbay, Kingston & Surbiton, Brecon & Radnor, Cheadle, Berwick on Tweed, Eastbourne, Cheltenham, and Hazel Grove against the Tories.
If the Cons lose net 40, they'll have lost ca 60 to Labour,
What was worrying about the Joyce Thacker interview was the complete lack of self-awareness. How did she get to a senior position with the IQ of a matchstick?
And I went on to go to Cambridge. I was just (a) young in my year, and (b) a late developer.
If your grandson is just a late developer, then not coaching him to get through the 11+ is doing him a great disservice.
@David_Cameron
This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.
https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …
Did they check the political affiliations of the grooming gangs beforehand?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRRw1ERj2Gc
Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?
Do you still have to supplement it?
Nah, that'd never work...
Do as the Aussies do, intercept early and tow them back to their point of departure. Absolutely criminal to bring them to Europe, just encourages them.
Of course they know the risk when they set out so I am not sure why they are presented as innocent victims rather than as calculating criminals breaking the law and in the process endangering others.
Of course they know the risk when they set out so I am not sure why they are presented as innocent victims rather than as calculating criminals breaking the law and in the process endangering others.
Send em home tae think again. Well, as far as thought is possible whilst being raped, starved or tortured.
Anyway he will be the England goalkeeper in the 2030 World Cup!
Race to the bottom, you win.
Labour's current support no. But during the New Labour years they lost a lot of supporters, who stopped voting rather than transfer to the Conservatives (perhaps due to the Conservatives being consider the party of the rich, for the rich).
The ICM (tiny!) subsample used as a thread header the other day hinted at this. With UKIP's highest vote share being in Labour seats, with a majority of <10%.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/21/these-icm-sub-samples-are-very-small-but-the-detail-of-this-breakdown-is-fascinating/
Bad cop is bad cop !
He's probably far enough ahead in Gordon to win, but he has to be careful mind - Con -> LD tactical switching there has a coherent intellectual argument, and sound basis.
should that arise, it will mostly be thanks to isam & ed being crap.......
To put it another way the SNP would like a Tory government because they can see that Cameron would rather be PM of England than let Miliband be PM of Britain.
Jason Groves @JasonGroves1
Ed Miliband says he will pay Mansion Tax on his £2.7m home, but insists it is not a mansion. 'That's just a term that's used...
Cameron has turned into a naff Buzzfeed sponsored advert 'you'll be shocked what these celebs eat' ect.
Only just seen the question you asked.. You mean South Thanet?
Nothing has changed IMO I think Farage will win very easily Ukip 4/6 probably the best bet
As for the £500@4.2 laying Tories... Weird they just don't go 3.75
IF labour want to win back ground in Scotland, surely the whole idea is to punish people for voting SNP, not reward them!!
1) More annoyance at having a right-wing government forced on Scotland, good for independence.
2) Possibility of leaving the EU, giving them an opening for another referendum if they think they can win it.
3) Tory boundary rules get them loads more Westminster seats, because they're tightly bound to voter registration, and Scotland has massively out-registered England.
"Of the seven main parties, the SNP has managed to get all of its parliamentary candidates on Twitter - while Ukip has only managed to do so with 52% of its prospective MPs.
The Scottish nationalists and Ukip top-and-tailed a Press Association table on Twitter participation. Labour were in second place with 92% of candidates on the micro-blogging site, while you can expect to see tweets from 84% of the Tories’ hopefuls.
Plaid Cymru had 83% of its candidates on Twitter, compared to 77% of the Greens’ and 69% of the Lib Dems".
If they get their 50 seats, they're the big winners of the election, no matter who ends up the as the Westminster government
IIRC since Australia took on a zero tolerance stance - the number of boat people like this has virtually stopped. Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.
Nah, that'd never work...
Reminds me of Blair's claim a week or so ago, that he wasn't rich, and his massive earnings were all spent on 'infrastructure'.