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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived

An analysis of data from the UK’s longest-running study of electoral behaviour has revealed how the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes.

Read the full story here

Scrapheap_as_was

Ed is a stud muffin!

Sunil_Prasannan

"UKIP if you want to. The lady's NOT for kipping!"

Sunil_Prasannan

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Ed is a stud muffin!

https://twitter.com/cooledmiliband/status/590240348204625921

Artist

That doesn't really chime with their results in the local elections last year, where they made progress in traditional Labour heartlands.

blackburn63

Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:

Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.

The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.

nigel4england

FPT:

I know of one well regarded school in South Bucks that is so fed up with boys struggling to adapt because they were not bright enough to pass the 11+ without their parents spending a fortune on coaching that they are bringing in their own entrance exam.

As I said my youngest granddaughter has just passed, in her class three boys passed with the aid of huge coaching. These boys are going to the aforementioned school, have never been in the top group in any subject in all their time at primary school, and will struggle big time when they move up.

My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?

Much as I love grammar schools the coaching aspect is an issue, and one that seems to be being addressed by individual schools setting their own entrance exams.

A grammar school in every town will also help.

Sunil_Prasannan

nigel4england said:

FPT:

I know of one well regarded school in South Bucks that is so fed up with boys struggling to adapt because they were not bright enough to pass the 11+ without their parents spending a fortune on coaching that they are bringing in their own entrance exam.

As I said my youngest granddaughter has just passed, in her class three boys passed with the aid of huge coaching. These boys are going to the aforementioned school, have never been in the top group in any subject in all their time at primary school, and will struggle big time when they move up.

My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?

Much as I love grammar schools the coaching aspect is an issue, and one that seems to be being addressed by individual schools setting their own entrance exams.

A grammar school in every town will also help.

Ilford still has a Grammar School each for boys and girls. I went to the boys' school, natch.

The_Woodpecker

Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.

AlastairMeeks

blackburn63 said:

Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:

Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.

The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.

What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?

nigel4england

If it is true that the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes, then be prepared for UKIP to take a larger % of the vote than the polls suggest.

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide, even if you are a foster parent in Rotherham.

blackburn63

antifrank said:

blackburn63 said:

Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:

Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.

The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.

What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?

Naturally it was disappointing, I know for a fact that both labour and the tories were very surprised by it. The figures were miles away from the canvassing results of all 3 parties and those in the local press.

Neil

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

TGOHF

The_Woodpecker said:

Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.

Perhaps a reason why non grammars in Kent do ok - big % of non grammar kids who have had some extensive tutoring even if it was in vain for the exams.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

nigel4england

The_Woodpecker said:

Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.

It is in Bucks too, one of the boys parents spent £6,000 on coaching.

My granddaughter did some test papers, didn't get the required pass mark as she blew it on the day, but got in on the headmistress' strong recommendation.

nigel4england

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

MarkSenior

Artist said:

That doesn't really chime with their results in the local elections last year, where they made progress in traditional Labour heartlands.

Performance in a local election turnout of of 20 odd % is not evidence of a future good performance in a GE turnout of 60 odd % especially in Labour strongholds .

Neil

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Scrapheap_as_was

nigel4england said:

The_Woodpecker said:

Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.

It is in Bucks too, one of the boys parents spent £6,000 on coaching.

My granddaughter did some test papers, didn't get the required pass mark as she blew it on the day, but got in on the headmistress' strong recommendation.

In Bucks I have seen the council pay for coaching for some of the disadvantaged children taking the exam to level up the playing field. don't have a problem with that either.

dyedwoolie

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

dyedwoolie

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

Given that apparantly the entire professional and managerial class are in the Barrymore party anyway, I'd think it would be a positive boon.

logical_song

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Just cos you're paranoid...

taffys

Look at Nigel, going on TV saying we not let the Africans set foot on European soil.

Of course, the commentariat isn;t listening.

But the public are.

Sean_F

blackburn63 said:

antifrank said:

blackburn63 said:

Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:

Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.

The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.

What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?

Naturally it was disappointing, I know for a fact that both labour and the tories were very surprised by it. The figures were miles away from the canvassing results of all 3 parties and those in the local press.

antifrank said:

blackburn63 said:

Anecdote alert. A friend of mine answered the door to a labour canvasser yesterday who asked who she would be voting for. She replied that she'd rather not say, the canvasser said:

Well that's progress, everyone else round here says they're voting ukip.

The point is nobody, whether within ukip, the media or other parties has a clue how ukip will do on May 7th.

What did you make of Lord Ashcroft's poll in Dover showing UKIP a distant third?

I was genuinely surprised to see how big the Conservative lead over Labour was in that seat.

If the Ashcroft poll were to be repeated on the day, that would mean a UKIP vote of c.10,000. It's possible that in this seat, more have come from Labour than the Conservatives, in which case the canvasser's pessimism would be justified.

Scott_P

@ScottyNational: Business : Shares in Tesco jumped after their £6bn loss is explained as Full Fiscal Responsibility and nothing to worry about.

Dair

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Pretty much sums up the mindset of Kippers.

felix

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

dyedwoolie

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

I'd have thought kippers wouldn't care as they are a completely legit party. Anything else would suggest some kippers themselves think the party they support is a bit 'out there'. I mean there is no suggestion your average kippers figurine panini immigrant sticker book has all the white Christian teams filled in first. Or anything similar.

TheWatcher

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

Plato

From Mr Liddle's Speccy column...

And the Labour leader Ed Miliband made a hugely useful contribution with a tweet saying that the people who died were among the poorest in the world and something should be done. I suppose if they had been moderately affluent it would have been less of a tragedy, Ed, you halfwit. Again, with Hodges and Miliband and the ludicrous Izzy Saunders, the response was all about infantile attitudinalising, nothing more than a wish to tell everybody else that they care more than every-body else and that therefore they are right.

Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.

I really dislike all the Something Must Be Done crowd - who don't actually do anything bar demanding sacking someone whose opinions they don't like. How completely self-righteous and pointless.

anotherDave

nigel4england said:

If it is true that the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes, then be prepared for UKIP to take a larger % of the vote than the polls suggest.

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide, even if you are a foster parent in Rotherham.

Mr Goodwin tweeted a link to the original article the other day.

1. first Evans/Mellon article
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv005.full

2. Goodwin/Ford response
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv012.full

3. Final word from Evans/Mellon.
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/04/16/pa.gsv013.full

dyedwoolie

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.

Sean_F

Plato said:

From Mr Liddle's Speccy column...

And the Labour leader Ed Miliband made a hugely useful contribution with a tweet saying that the people who died were among the poorest in the world and something should be done. I suppose if they had been moderately affluent it would have been less of a tragedy, Ed, you halfwit. Again, with Hodges and Miliband and the ludicrous Izzy Saunders, the response was all about infantile attitudinalising, nothing more than a wish to tell everybody else that they care more than every-body else and that therefore they are right.

Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.

I really dislike all the Something Must Be Done crowd - who don't actually do anything bar demanding sacking someone whose opinions they don't like. How completely self-righteous and pointless.

"Something must be done" gave us the Iraq War.

volcanopete

Any odds available on Bez.?He did win the channel 4 house thing.He has the ability to cut through on fracking and make a national statement on fracking.

nigel4england

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

dyedwoolie

Sean_F said:

Plato said:

From Mr Liddle's Speccy column...

And the Labour leader Ed Miliband made a hugely useful contribution with a tweet saying that the people who died were among the poorest in the world and something should be done. I suppose if they had been moderately affluent it would have been less of a tragedy, Ed, you halfwit. Again, with Hodges and Miliband and the ludicrous Izzy Saunders, the response was all about infantile attitudinalising, nothing more than a wish to tell everybody else that they care more than every-body else and that therefore they are right.

Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.

I really dislike all the Something Must Be Done crowd - who don't actually do anything bar demanding sacking someone whose opinions they don't like. How completely self-righteous and pointless.

"Something must be done" gave us the Iraq War.

HMS Farage could sail out and pick up any floating Christians and put all the others on some sort of barge with homing instincts

Neil

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.

Tabman

nigel4england said:

The_Woodpecker said:

Coaching/tutoring for the 11+ is an established industry in Kent.

It is in Bucks too, one of the boys parents spent £6,000 on coaching.

My granddaughter did some test papers, didn't get the required pass mark as she blew it on the day, but got in on the headmistress' strong recommendation.

£6k vs £100k+£6k

its a no brainer

Stereotomy

Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.

Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.

Nah, that'd never work...

Pulpstar

dyedwoolie said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.

I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.

This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.

dyedwoolie

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.

Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.

taffys

''Nah, that'd never work...''

The honorable member for Tripoli South there...

TheWatcher

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

I've heard that the Spooks are studying photographs from Kipper hustings using secret Fish-Head facial analysis software, as part of the Smokehouse programme. Be afraid.

dyedwoolie

Pulpstar said:

dyedwoolie said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.

I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.

This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.

Norfolk North will be rather closer than the stats suggest. Lamb hold, but not by much.

AllyPally_Rob

Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:

- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.

- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.

anotherDave

One immediate take from the Evans/Mellon piece is that in seats where the Labour vote fell in the New Labour years 1997+, those voters should transfer to UKIP.

This also supports Mr Smithson's theory of turnout returning to 70%+

http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

Neil

dyedwoolie said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.

Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.

Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.

nigel4england

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.

LOL!

Sean_F

Pulpstar said:

dyedwoolie said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.

I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.

This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.

I can't see anything other than Conservative gains in North Devon, Solihull, Chippenham, Mid-Dorset, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Portsmouth South, and Taunton Deane.

A great night for the Lib Dems would see them holding the three Cornwall seats, Torbay, Kingston & Surbiton, Brecon & Radnor, Cheadle, Berwick on Tweed, Eastbourne, Cheltenham, and Hazel Grove against the Tories.

dyedwoolie

AllyPally_Rob said:

Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:

- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.

- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.

If Labour are plus 42 seats, they will have taken 80-90 off the Tories and Liberals
If the Cons lose net 40, they'll have lost ca 60 to Labour,

CD13

Nigel4,

What was worrying about the Joyce Thacker interview was the complete lack of self-awareness. How did she get to a senior position with the IQ of a matchstick?

SimonStClare

Sigh..! - these contrived threads are becoming positively Pavlovian.

Pulpstar

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

dyedwoolie said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.

I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.

This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.

I can't see anything other than Conservative gains in North Devon, Solihull, Chippenham, Mid-Dorset, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Portsmouth South, and Taunton Deane.

A great night for the Lib Dems would see them holding the three Cornwall seats, Torbay, Kingston & Surbiton, Brecon & Radnor, Cheadle, Berwick on Tweed, Eastbourne, Cheltenham, and Hazel Grove against the Tories.

These are my thoughts too - Portsmouth South is my litmus test as to who whether OGH has called it right for the Lib Dems though !

dyedwoolie

Neil said:

dyedwoolie said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.

Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.

Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.

In response to the sheer number of UKIP reporting respondees! social services have no option but to reallocate children into approved grooming gangs to counterbalance the trend and smooth the numbers.

nigel4england

CD13 said:

Nigel4,

What was worrying about the Joyce Thacker interview was the complete lack of self-awareness. How did she get to a senior position with the IQ of a matchstick?

By going on a Common Purpose training programme.

MikeSmithson

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.

AllyPally_Rob

dyedwoolie said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:

- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.

- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.

If Labour are plus 42 seats, they will have taken 80-90 off the Tories and Liberals
If the Cons lose net 40, they'll have lost ca 60 to Labour,

My overall point being that Miliband starts in a stronger starting position than Kinnock and Cameron starts from a far weaker position than Major did.

MikeSmithson

Pulpstar said:

dyedwoolie said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

No, I think we need to be honest and all cheerlead a Lib Dems to hold at least 55 and make large gains at local elections thread.

I've just stuck more money against the Lib Dems where there has been no "Smithson warning" to be honest.

This means the Taunton Deane stake is larger than the Pompey South one.

I'd agree with that.

Pulpstar

The one thing I am fairly sure of in Portsmouth South is that this is a two horse race, and that Labour, UKIP and Hancock are no hopers.

dyedwoolie

AllyPally_Rob said:

dyedwoolie said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Given 1992 seems to be 'in vogue' as the benchmark for this years election, here's some sobering facts for the Tories:

- If Cameron does 'as well' as Major did in '92 (-40 Seats) He wont be Prime Minister.

- If Miliband does 'as badly' as Kinnock did in '92 (+42 Seats) He will be Prime Minister.

If Labour are plus 42 seats, they will have taken 80-90 off the Tories and Liberals
If the Cons lose net 40, they'll have lost ca 60 to Labour,

My overall point being that Miliband starts in a stronger starting position than Kinnock and Cameron starts from a far weaker position than Major did.

Yes, agrees. Although Kinnock was not facing Jockmageddon

Scott_P

@patrickwintour: Salmond's idea of a joke or a threat of mayhem ? Salmond says he will write the Labour budget. https://t.co/E3iuxYfjZ6

rcs1000

nigel4england said:

My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?

Do remember that kids mature at different times. When I was seven, I was in the remedial class of a very state ordinary junior school in west London.

And I went on to go to Cambridge. I was just (a) young in my year, and (b) a late developer.

If your grandson is just a late developer, then not coaching him to get through the 11+ is doing him a great disservice.

TGOHF

Eck's back

@David_Cameron

This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.

https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …

CD13

Neil and Mr Woollie

Did they check the political affiliations of the grooming gangs beforehand?

Neil

dyedwoolie said:

Neil said:

dyedwoolie said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.

Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.

Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.

In response to the sheer number of UKIP reporting respondees! social services have no option but to reallocate children into approved grooming gangs to counterbalance the trend and smooth the numbers.

Some paedophiles were dealt with by being blasted into space in one man prison vessels. Unfortunately an 8 year old boy was placed on one of the vessels by mistake. This was the one thing we didnt want to happen.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRRw1ERj2Gc

dyedwoolie

CD13 said:

Neil and Mr Woollie

Did they check the political affiliations of the grooming gangs beforehand?

Yes, the gangs were properly background checked and found to be safe groomers affiliated with parties that social services approves of.

dyedwoolie

Neil said:

dyedwoolie said:

Neil said:

dyedwoolie said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Very few professionals would admit to supporting UKIP in a poll as it would be career suicide

Can you talk us through the process from clicking on the UKIP option in the you gov survey to being denied a promotion opportunity at work?

I wouldn't trust You Gov not to pass on my information.

Wow.

And you obviously wouldnt trust your employer not to discriminate against you based on your political beliefs.

So little trust.

Rotherham Social Services discriminated against the foster parents for their political beliefs did they not?

Tbf it was the foster parents' own fault for recklessly responding to you gov surveys with details of their political affiliation.

Actually the situation occurred due to certain YouGov respondees misremembering their 2010 affiliation. Rotherham social services rightly concluded this might mean they were unable to remember if they had placed the child in a hay thresher, or in the hands of a grooming gang that was not on the approved groomers list.

Surely social services should reallocate placed children to allow for false recall.

In response to the sheer number of UKIP reporting respondees! social services have no option but to reallocate children into approved grooming gangs to counterbalance the trend and smooth the numbers.

Some paedophiles were dealt with by being blasted into space in one man prison vessels. Unfortunately an 8 year old boy was placed on one of the vessels by mistake. This was the one thing we didnt want to happen.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRRw1ERj2Gc

Greatest show ever made. Morris for PM

MarkHopkins

MikeSmithson said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.

Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?

Do you still have to supplement it?

FalseFlag

Stereotomy said:

Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.

Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.

Nah, that'd never work...



Do as the Aussies do, intercept early and tow them back to their point of departure. Absolutely criminal to bring them to Europe, just encourages them.

Of course they know the risk when they set out so I am not sure why they are presented as innocent victims rather than as calculating criminals breaking the law and in the process endangering others.

Pulpstar

#cameronettes is trending.

dyedwoolie

FalseFlag said:

Stereotomy said:

Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.

Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.

Nah, that'd never work...

Do as the Aussies do, intercept early and tow them back to their point of departure. Absolutely criminal to bring them to Europe, just encourages them.

Of course they know the risk when they set out so I am not sure why they are presented as innocent victims rather than as calculating criminals breaking the law and in the process endangering others.


Send em home tae think again. Well, as far as thought is possible whilst being raped, starved or tortured.

nigel4england

rcs1000 said:

nigel4england said:

My next grandson takes his 11+ in a couple of years and I cannot see him passing, what is the point of coaching your kids to pass an exam that sends them to a school they will struggle at and be unhappy?

Do remember that kids mature at different times. When I was seven, I was in the remedial class of a very state ordinary junior school in west London.

And I went on to go to Cambridge. I was just (a) young in my year, and (b) a late developer.

If your grandson is just a late developer, then not coaching him to get through the 11+ is doing him a great disservice.

He will get some coaching, he is good at numbers and problem solving but his English work is not great.

Anyway he will be the England goalkeeper in the 2030 World Cup!

BenM

nigel4england said:

FPT:



A grammar school in every town will also help.

No it wouldn't.

MikeSmithson

MarkHopkins said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.

Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?

Do you still have to supplement it?

The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.

nigel4england

BenM said:

nigel4england said:

FPT:



A grammar school in every town will also help.

No it wouldn't.

It wouldn't if your objective is not to raise social mobility or give bright working class kids a chance to get on.

Race to the bottom, you win.

dyedwoolie

Schools need a far greater emphasis on practical and vocational skills with as much effort put into bringing up the technical and manual skills of weird iq albino children as the educational and mathematical skills of metalwork and sport dudes

anotherDave

"If this analysis is right then LAB would appear to be less vulnerable to UKIP than had been thought"

Labour's current support no. But during the New Labour years they lost a lot of supporters, who stopped voting rather than transfer to the Conservatives (perhaps due to the Conservatives being consider the party of the rich, for the rich).

The ICM (tiny!) subsample used as a thread header the other day hinted at this. With UKIP's highest vote share being in Labour seats, with a majority of <10%.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/21/these-icm-sub-samples-are-very-small-but-the-detail-of-this-breakdown-is-fascinating/

Pulpstar

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

Alex Salmond being Salmond tbh.

Bad cop is bad cop !

He's probably far enough ahead in Gordon to win, but he has to be careful mind - Con -> LD tactical switching there has a coherent intellectual argument, and sound basis.

Scrapheap_as_was

MikeSmithson said:

MarkHopkins said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.

Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?

Do you still have to supplement it?

The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.

I shall be donating 10% of any net profit from my betting wagers on the GE to PB as a thank you albeit that is in the unlikely event I do come out on top.

should that arise, it will mostly be thanks to isam & ed being crap.......

AlastairMeeks

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

The SNP are equally happy with a Conservative-led government and a Labour minority government. The only government that doesn't suit them is a Labour majority government.

murali_s

Any polls due today?

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

The SNP are equally happy with a Conservative-led government and a Labour minority government. The only government that doesn't suit them is a Labour majority government.

Lab on around 310 with the Lib Dems able to solely support them isn't brilliant either.

nigel4england

murali_s said:

Any polls due today?

No, Farage won't let them in.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

A Tory government in Westminster being a bogeyman they can create scare stories about gets them much closer to independence. Remember the SNP have the ultimate goal of independence, not more powers or money within the UK. If anything them being king maker within the current system and it working will delay independence as unionist parties can show that Scotland can have a real say in the governance of the nation and that independence is not a necessity for Scotland to do well.

Polruan

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

A weak Tory government that has just enough numbers to allow Cameron to cling on to power having talked up the illegitimacy of Scottish MPs is the best result for the SNP to a) survive and b) push the indy case. Basically a rerun of the Tory conduct in relation to Ireland a century back. It minimises the risk to the SNP of being in government in any shape or form (LD-style guilt by association) and allows them to make a forceful case that Scotland is being oppressed by an English-only government.

To put it another way the SNP would like a Tory government because they can see that Cameron would rather be PM of England than let Miliband be PM of Britain.

Tykejohnno

Jason Groves @JasonGroves1

Ed Miliband says he will pay Mansion Tax on his £2.7m home, but insists it is not a mansion. 'That's just a term that's used...

AllyPally_Rob

TGOHF said:

Eck's back

@David_Cameron

This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.

https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …

"This footage will shock you".

Cameron has turned into a naff Buzzfeed sponsored advert 'you'll be shocked what these celebs eat' ect.

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

The SNP are equally happy with a Conservative-led government and a Labour minority government. The only government that doesn't suit them is a Labour majority government.

Lab on around 310 with the Lib Dems able to solely support them isn't brilliant either.

True. The SNP need to ensure Labour don't do too well. Which is why they're assisting the Conservatives right now.

isam

@tissueprice

Only just seen the question you asked.. You mean South Thanet?

Nothing has changed IMO I think Farage will win very easily Ukip 4/6 probably the best bet

As for the £500@4.2 laying Tories... Weird they just don't go 3.75

TGOHF

AllyPally_Rob said:

TGOHF said:

Eck's back

@David_Cameron

This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.

https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …

"This footage will shock you".

Cameron has turned into a naff Buzzfeed sponsored advert 'you'll be shocked what these celebs eat' ect.

Eck will be delighted - he must have been fuming at the attention Saint Nicola has been getting.

taffys

IF labour goes into coalition with the SNP, why on earth would any left leaning Scot ever vote labour again?

IF labour want to win back ground in Scotland, surely the whole idea is to punish people for voting SNP, not reward them!!

isam

Scrapheap_as_was said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarkHopkins said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.

Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?

Do you still have to supplement it?

The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.

I shall be donating 10% of any net profit from my betting wagers on the GE to PB as a thank you albeit that is in the unlikely event I do come out on top.

should that arise, it will mostly be thanks to isam & ed being crap.......

It would be me that's crap as well!

edmundintokyo

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

Benefits of a Tory government for them:
1) More annoyance at having a right-wing government forced on Scotland, good for independence.
2) Possibility of leaving the EU, giving them an opening for another referendum if they think they can win it.
3) Tory boundary rules get them loads more Westminster seats, because they're tightly bound to voter registration, and Scotland has massively out-registered England.

Carnyx

Just noticed the Graun live feed reporting a Press Association study of the use of Twitter by PPCs:

"Of the seven main parties, the SNP has managed to get all of its parliamentary candidates on Twitter - while Ukip has only managed to do so with 52% of its prospective MPs.

The Scottish nationalists and Ukip top-and-tailed a Press Association table on Twitter participation. Labour were in second place with 92% of candidates on the micro-blogging site, while you can expect to see tweets from 84% of the Tories’ hopefuls.

Plaid Cymru had 83% of its candidates on Twitter, compared to 77% of the Greens’ and 69% of the Lib Dems".

William_H

SeanT said:

WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?

Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?

The SNP want to destroy Labour in Scotland, thus cutting a major thread binding them to the UK and firmly establishing the SNP as the sole voice for Scotland. And feeding the Conservative English nationalist frenzy will help them too

If they get their 50 seats, they're the big winners of the election, no matter who ends up the as the Westminster government

foxinsoxuk

Scrapheap_as_was said:

MikeSmithson said:

MarkHopkins said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheWatcher said:

dyedwoolie said:

How refreshing to see a Smithson thread on how the Tories are doomed and Labour will do better than expected. I'll bet it chimes with what Nick is hearing on the doorstep in Broxtowe too.

I'm holding out for a 'The LibDems face destruction on May 7th' thread.

If you don't like coming here then you don't have to. Every time someone posts it adds to my costs without increasing revenue.

Is the ad revenue from additional views not enough to cover the hosting costs?

Do you still have to supplement it?

The display ad revenue runs at less than £300 per month which is sharply down on a few years ago even though there's bigger traffic.

I shall be donating 10% of any net profit from my betting wagers on the GE to PB as a thank you albeit that is in the unlikely event I do come out on top.

should that arise, it will mostly be thanks to isam & ed being crap.......

I too am willing to help fund the site after my election bets are settled. I have had some promising ones from malcolmg, antifrank and of course Jacks ARSE...

nigel4england

Tykejohnno said:

Jason Groves @JasonGroves1

Ed Miliband says he will pay Mansion Tax on his £2.7m home, but insists it is not a mansion. 'That's just a term that's used...

Will he claim it back on expenses though?

AllyPally_Rob

TGOHF said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

TGOHF said:

Eck's back

@David_Cameron

This footage will shock you: Alex Salmond laughs & boasts he’ll write Labour’s budget. Vote Conservative to stop it.

https://amp.twimg.com/v/8771ab80-c4b9-4e9d-ba4b-a1bb4ccddc9e …

"This footage will shock you".

Cameron has turned into a naff Buzzfeed sponsored advert 'you'll be shocked what these celebs eat' ect.

Eck will be delighted - he must have been fuming at the attention Saint Nicola has been getting.

Absolutely, it wouldn't surprise me if the SNP leaked the footage to the Tories anyway. The SNP and Tories at each others throats works in both parties favour. Labour can do bugg*r all to change the narrative.

Plato

No, that encourages people traffickers. Like kidnappers.

IIRC since Australia took on a zero tolerance stance - the number of boat people like this has virtually stopped.

Stereotomy said:

Here’s the deal. There are two ways in which we can act to prevent future boatloads of migrants from drowning in the Mediterranean, and only two ways. Let them all in, or stop them trying to come.

Or maybe some kind of search and rescue operations.

Nah, that'd never work...

volcanopete

Looking at the LibDems seats it does appear there are 3 without an incumbent which have gone to the Tories.The LibDem brand has been damaged by coalition with the heartless Tories and so it will fall on the strengths of personality,independent thinking and constituency reputation.For these reasons I suggest evens at Corals is value for a LD hold in Torbay and St Ives is still backable for a LD hold at just under evens.Both candidates may just get over the line using their personal brand rather than their parties and certainly no pictures of Clegg on the leaflets.Places like these,Bath and Yeovil,the LibDems are like bindweed and you just can't get rid of them.

TheWatcher

Tykejohnno said:

Jason Groves @JasonGroves1

Ed Miliband says he will pay Mansion Tax on his £2.7m home, but insists it is not a mansion. 'That's just a term that's used...

It's a different world isn't it.

Reminds me of Blair's claim a week or so ago, that he wasn't rich, and his massive earnings were all spent on 'infrastructure'.