I do enjoy reading the words of pessimistic Labour and Pessmitic Tory sections of their respective parties. Right or wrong, it shows not everyone stays on message above all else.
You reckon the ComRes Ukip seats poll is behind the dough laying Tories in Thanet?
Ukip 1.86 in Thurrock looks like polling info too
I expect it will be aggregate data like the other ComRes polls (London/SW). Not expecting it to be brilliant for UKIP.
I see com res last three Ukip polls were 10 12 and 12, so a bit below the average... Still interesting to see which seats they've polled and of course, the findings
According to Electionforecast the following are the only sub 50% probability SNP gains.
Dumfries and Galloway 37% Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland 35% Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 22% Dunfermline and West Fife 19% Orkney and Shetland 16%
They have Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk as a Tory gain in their model too, mind with the SNP in third.
BBC news homepage appears to have a Welsh option and... Scottish? It's Alba.
Cornish next, I'd guess. And then a Yorkshire dialect version.
Yes, Alba is Scottish - more specifically Gaelic mainly but often bilingual/subtitled so no-one is left out. Some excellent programmes; I used to watch the current affairs programme Eorpa [edit: anglice, Europe] without fail.
Richard Symonds, who had accused Tory co-chairman of creating a fake identity on the online encyclopedia to boost his reputation, is a Lib Dem activist, Telegraph reveals
Lib Dems - Smearing here.
The fact that he might be motivated to release information by his party allegiance doesn't automatically mean that it's fabricated. Or am I missing something in the logic?
I don't know, but Shapps is an easy target
I dont think the fact that this is exactly the kind of stunt one would expect Shapps to pull means it is any less likely that he actually did it.
It's an odd story. I don't see how it can be conspiracy because anyone obsessive enough to spend two years putting in the groundwork would surely have picked a more damaging project to a higher profile target - I mean, if true, it would be embarrassing to a normal person, but Shapps is not a normal person (or even 3 normal people) and he's already publicly known to have done equally dumb/dishonest stuff. Could it have been falsified by creating a raft of back-dated edits? Doesn't sound possible. Could anybody else have genuinely felt so strongly about his biography that they kept on correcting omissions and removing criticisms? Sounds even less possible. So what's left?
A couple of possibilities immediately spring to mind. Firstly, the allegations could be genuine. Secondly, contribsx could be a random Shapps-fan, determined to defend him from the scorn of lefties and those Tories not able to appreciate his brilliance, that the LibDem wiki editor has wrongly accused of being in cahoots with Shapps.
I wouldn't rule out number two as being fanciful. The internet is pretty good at bringing to public attention the most unusual extremes of human behaviour. There must be someone in the country who thinks that Shapps is the foremost politician of our age.
Nowt queerer than folk (particularly internet folk):
I loved that sketch. I'm a fellow Goodies boxsetter. King Kitten remains my fav, along with the OK Tea Rooms and Graham falling in love with his computer
"Kung Fu Kapers" was always my favourite, and still is. I think partly because I loved the "Kung Fu" tv series. Just looked on Amazon to see if I can buy (and re-live) that in fact.
Strange how these elements fit together to form your world picture. To this day if anyone asked me to list martial arts I'd certainly find Ecky Thump drifting into my thinking.
Should I get on a Labour win in East Lothian, on the basis of the Edinburgh South poll and the strong "No" vote there? 11/8 with Paddy power, maybe not attractive enough.
SNP win by 500 votes. I'd leave well alone as that's a cast iron certainty.
Should I get on a Labour win in East Lothian, on the basis of the Edinburgh South poll and the strong "No" vote there? 11/8 with Paddy power, maybe not attractive enough.
SNP win by 500 votes. I'd leave well alone as that's a cast iron certainty.
What does your model reveal for Dumferline West Fife ?
I loved that sketch. I'm a fellow Goodies boxsetter. King Kitten remains my fav, along with the OK Tea Rooms and Graham falling in love with his computer
"Kung Fu Kapers" was always my favourite, and still is. I think partly because I loved the "Kung Fu" tv series. Just looked on Amazon to see if I can buy (and re-live) that in fact.
Strange how these elements fit together to form your world picture. To this day if anyone asked me to list martial arts I'd certainly find Ecky Thump drifting into my thinking.
Miss Plato, I think that's based on the Chinese classic Journey to the West. Not seen the programme, but the book's pretty good (not as good as Outlaws of the Marsh, though).
Election catch-up: What are the chances of Ed Miliband becoming prime minister? A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent
Remember - Don't back Ed, lay Dave if you're trading Betfair:
But Cameron’s chance of staying on as Prime Minister is rather lower than the remaining 45 per cent. If the anti-Tory bloc fails to achieve a majority, Cameron would probably still need the support of the Liberal Democrats – and possibly of the DUP as well – to survive.
Remember - Don't back Ed, lay Dave if you're trading Betfair:
But Cameron’s chance of staying on as Prime Minister is rather lower than the remaining 45 per cent. If the anti-Tory bloc fails to achieve a majority, Cameron would probably still need the support of the Liberal Democrats – and possibly of the DUP as well – to survive.
Indeed so but if he stayed on would the LDs or DUP no confidence him assuming he had more seats and votes than Labour? I suspect if the rainbow left forces fall short of 323 he will have a chance.
EICIPMM - Ed is Crap is Pubescent Masturbation Material! #milifandom
BJO: what do you say now it looks as though Hinchinbrooke Hospital under Circle was nowhere near as sh*te as you were telling us it was?
;-)
I don't think that you have seen the whole picture JJ; the revisit several months on showed that Hitchinbrooke had significantly improved from the autumn report. It did not say the autumn report was wrong.
Any correction from the BBC on this? Facts matter as they keep telling us?
Chris Mould, chairman of Trussell and Labour Party member, deliberating releasing a press release that is factually incorrect. There is an issue here, but it is pretty disgusting behaviour to weaponize like this, rather than reporting facts in a honest way.
Election catch-up: What are the chances of Ed Miliband becoming prime minister? A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent
John Rentoul EICIPM
If I had to put my house on it I'd put it on Ed to be PM in 16 days and I've consistently said over the past five years I can't ever, ever see him as PM.
Have you seen Shaolin Soccer or Kung Fu Hustle? The latter's disconnect between subtitles and dubbing can't be a mistake - it's side splittingly funny.
Election catch-up: What are the chances of Ed Miliband becoming prime minister? A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent
John Rentoul EICIPM
If I had to put my house on it I'd put it on Ed to be PM in 16 days and I've consistently said over the past five years I can't ever, ever see him as PM.
The woe.
It might even be down to one seat - are the Tories disadvantaged by having the Speaker occupying a Tory seat?
Election catch-up: What are the chances of Ed Miliband becoming prime minister? A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent
John Rentoul EICIPM
If I had to put my house on it I'd put it on Ed to be PM in 16 days and I've consistently said over the past five years I can't ever, ever see him as PM.
The woe.
You would lose your house then. Even if Miliband does eventually become PM, it would likely take at least a week before the dust settles and Cameron resigns.
The Lab-SNP stuff seems to be getting some traction...so I'm going to predict a move to Labour. The polls haven't been playing ball this whole time, it'd be just like them to take the opposite path to what I'd expect now.
Election catch-up: What are the chances of Ed Miliband becoming prime minister? A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent
John Rentoul EICIPM
If I had to put my house on it I'd put it on Ed to be PM in 16 days and I've consistently said over the past five years I can't ever, ever see him as PM.
The woe.
Miliband only becomes PM in 16 days in a '97-style clear outcome. Unless the result is clear Cameron remains PM for however many days it takes to get a result negotiated (as Brown did in '10).
EICIPMM - Ed is Crap is Pubescent Masturbation Material! #milifandom
BJO: what do you say now it looks as though Hinchinbrooke Hospital under Circle was nowhere near as sh*te as you were telling us it was?
;-)
I don't think that you have seen the whole picture JJ; the revisit several months on showed that Hitchinbrooke had significantly improved from the autumn report. It did not say the autumn report was wrong.
Thanks have seen it now. A re-inspection was carried out in January
After a second assessment of Hinchingbrooke the CQC has now rated the hospital as "requires improvement", but it has not been removed from special measures.
Hinchingbrooke remained "inadequate" for whether it was well-led
Election catch-up: What are the chances of Ed Miliband becoming prime minister? A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent
John Rentoul EICIPM
If I had to put my house on it I'd put it on Ed to be PM in 16 days and I've consistently said over the past five years I can't ever, ever see him as PM.
The woe.
It might even be down to one seat - are the Tories disadvantaged by having the Speaker occupying a Tory seat?
No - there are 3 deputies - 1 Tory and 2 Labour I believe. (And in any case it is probably better for the Tories that Bercow can't vote (TIC))
Miliband only becomes PM in 16 days in a '97-style clear outcome. Unless the result is clear Cameron remains PM for however many days it takes to get a result negotiated (as Brown did in '10).
Cameron could resign immediately, as Gordo could have done.
WTF are the SNP playing at? Are they trying to destroy Labour's chance of election? It is surely in their interests for them to be kingmakers to a weak Miliband. Are they that convinced that a Tory government is better for the SNP longterm?
Or are they just getting absurdly hubristic and cocky?
Of course, it stands to reason they want a Tory government. All they have said is that they will not support one.
Tories will give them super DEvomax in return for reduced seats at the next GE. The SNP could not give a monkeys about that since they will extract another promise: a referendum re: the EU, automatically triggers a referendum on the future of Scotland. Tories would happily concede that too.
EICIPMM - Ed is Crap is Pubescent Masturbation Material! #milifandom
BJO: what do you say now it looks as though Hinchinbrooke Hospital under Circle was nowhere near as sh*te as you were telling us it was?
;-)
Not seen whatever you are referring to but I do know that CIRCLE withdrew as Emergency Care Tariff makes running an Acute hospital a mugs game.
Lansley has made Acute Healthcare unsustainable
The Emergency care tarrif was introduced before Lansley came to power as I remember. Decided in 2009 and implemented from April 2010.
Circle would have bid with that taken into account. They did not bid enough to run the hospital. I remember also seeing that Circle had wider financial issues to deal with.
Should I get on a Labour win in East Lothian, on the basis of the Edinburgh South poll and the strong "No" vote there? 11/8 with Paddy power, maybe not attractive enough.
SNP win by 500 votes. I'd leave well alone as that's a cast iron certainty.
What does your model reveal for Dumferline West Fife ?
SNP by 8000 as long as I have read table correctly, am on mobile.
Miliband only becomes PM in 16 days in a '97-style clear outcome. Unless the result is clear Cameron remains PM for however many days it takes to get a result negotiated (as Brown did in '10).
Cameron could resign immediately, as Gordo could have done.
Gordo was asked to stay on as PM by the cabinet secretary, per the usual convention in the circumstances. When the coalition talks dragged on, Gordo had enough and resigned, forcing the Lib/Cons to do the deal quickly.
This makes a lot of sense to me. UKIP support is in the C1 and C2 groupings. They're people that work hard and have put a bit of money aside, but are increasingly frustrated by the combination of (1) people that don't play by the rules seem to do just as well, often supported by the state, and (2) the wealthy have increasingly pulled away from them in financial terms. This explains a lot of their political views: they feel they are too highly taxed to support people who don't deserve it, they aren't quite rich enough to insulate themselves from the negatives of immigration, and they resent the bankers and politicians that seem to make endless mistakes and yet still get endless perks. These are the people that Thatcher won in the 1980s, and would be called "Reagan Democrats" by the Yanks. The Conservatives really need to win them back.
hmm...well, i don't play by the rules (socially not legally), am a workshy slacker (although not on the dole or claiming any out of work benefit or housing benefit) and have a never paid a penny of income tax in this country, but i'm voting ukip (in argyll & bute to reply to pulpstar).
EICIPMM - Ed is Crap is Pubescent Masturbation Material! #milifandom
BJO: what do you say now it looks as though Hinchinbrooke Hospital under Circle was nowhere near as sh*te as you were telling us it was?
;-)
I don't think that you have seen the whole picture JJ; the revisit several months on showed that Hitchinbrooke had significantly improved from the autumn report. It did not say the autumn report was wrong.
Alternatively, Circle's claims about the report were correct ...
Comments
Dumfries and Galloway 37%
Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland 35%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 22%
Dunfermline and West Fife 19%
Orkney and Shetland 16%
They have Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk as a Tory gain in their model too, mind with the SNP in third.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/22/milifandom-soars-with-twitter-backing-for-labour-leader-ed-miliband
Ed is most definitely not crap! He is the new Harry Styles.
Strange how these elements fit together to form your world picture. To this day if anyone asked me to list martial arts I'd certainly find Ecky Thump drifting into my thinking.
http://time.com/3831126/paris-extremist-paris-france-church/
(Edit: linky changed, will hopefully work now)
How lovely.
Miss Plato, I think that's based on the Chinese classic Journey to the West. Not seen the programme, but the book's pretty good (not as good as Outlaws of the Marsh, though).
A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent
John Rentoul EICIPM
Edit: hang on a minute, both threads have the same title??
But Cameron’s chance of staying on as Prime Minister is rather lower than the remaining 45 per cent. If the anti-Tory bloc fails to achieve a majority, Cameron would probably still need the support of the Liberal Democrats – and possibly of the DUP as well – to survive.
@politicalAP
As fishy as a Contribsx wilipedia edit.
;-)
Lansley has made Acute Healthcare unsustainable
Any correction from the BBC on this? Facts matter as they keep telling us?
Chris Mould, chairman of Trussell and Labour Party member, deliberating releasing a press release that is factually incorrect. There is an issue here, but it is pretty disgusting behaviour to weaponize like this, rather than reporting facts in a honest way.
The woe.
Have you seen Shaolin Soccer or Kung Fu Hustle? The latter's disconnect between subtitles and dubbing can't be a mistake - it's side splittingly funny.
After a second assessment of Hinchingbrooke the CQC has now rated the hospital as "requires improvement", but it has not been removed from special measures.
Hinchingbrooke remained "inadequate" for whether it was well-led
Have there been any polls today?
Tories will give them super DEvomax in return for reduced seats at the next GE. The SNP could not give a monkeys about that since they will extract another promise: a referendum re: the EU, automatically triggers a referendum on the future of Scotland. Tories would happily concede that too.