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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As expected Hillary announces that she’s running for President
Hillary overwhelming favorite to win Democratic Party presidental nomination. This from Betfair Sportsbook pic.twitter.com/PknJupwC1J
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first0
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Clonton Vs Bush Redux!0
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Forty-fifth.0
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play her at 78 not 45.
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It's that time of the week again - the Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), week-ending 12th April!
Labour bounce back into the lead in this week's ELBOW, after a Tory lead of 0.4% last week.
12 polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th-11th April, sample 14,570
Lab 34.3% (+0.5)
Con 33.1 (-1.0)
UKIP 13.7 (nc)
LD 8.2 (+0.2)
Green 4.9 (+0.1)
Lab lead 1.2% (+1.6)
* Biggest Lab lead since 15th February, and their highest ELBOW score since Xmas week - another holiday period!
* Lowest Con ELBOW score since 9th March!
* Biggest LD score since 24th August 2014!
* UKIP's slow decline halted for now (13.7 two weeks in a row), but still below where they were at end of August 2014
* Greens' decline also halted, but still below where they were in late October 2014
Will this post-Easter bounce for Lab last, or will the previous trend of ever-smaller Lab leads and nascent Tory lead return next week?0 -
Nothing seems to have been leaked about the Labour manifesto, so there's probably nothing new of note in it that we don't already know about.0
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o/t. Had a look at a Labour leaflet from Halifax. Firstly it has no mention of Ed Miliband, but then that is not unusual. But didn't have anything which it made references to voters from West Yorkshire, instead had concerned people from North Warwickshire and Harrow in the photos. It could have been from anywhere else in the UK.
Struck me as an odd way to keep the troops happy in a marginal seat. Perhaps the Labour ground war is weak, or divided.
No sign of any colours in windows or on estate agent type posts - though two Conservative billboards - one with Ed in Salmond's pocket.0 -
Curtice says Labour on 302 with 30 losses to the SNP, and the LDs on 20. That would mean something like 60+ direct gains by Labour from Conservative.
That seems somewhat unlikely.0 -
YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Labour, while 24 % disagreed.
So on a net basis
+14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories0 -
No value in the Democrat betting market. Hillary should win but always some risk in a political campaign - exactly as the odds say. Value is in selling Bush on the GOP market. He hasn't set it alight and doesn't justify frontrunner status. Lacks the folksy charm of his brother, whilst possessing the troublesome name.0
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TSE @TSEofPB 3m3 minutes ago
YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Lab, while 24 % disagreed. +14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories0 -
Labour on around 300 seems at the upper end of the possible, but I'd put it as more likely than the Tories getting to the same level, unsurprisingly.
Hillary win would be boring if it's too easy. Let us hope it is not.0 -
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Guardian front page -
Labour’s big promise: no extra borrowing
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/trfvIVSY07
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I was too late retweeting you on here I see.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Labour, while 24 % disagreed.
So on a net basis
+14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories
Was there a delay in your post appearing here or have I had too much Bacardi tonight0 -
Nick SuttonVerified account
@suttonnick Monday's Telegraph front page:
Labour plea to voters: the economy is safe with us
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
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Compared to?Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Guardian front page -
Labour’s big promise: no extra borrowing
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/trfvIVSY070 -
It first appeared on the last thread.bigjohnowls said:
I was too late retweeting you on here I see.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Labour, while 24 % disagreed.
So on a net basis
+14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories
Was there a delay in your post appearing here or have I had too much Bacardi tonight0 -
Funny old election with the Tories promising heaven and earth and Labour promising fiscal responsibility.0
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My latest forecast was Lab 292.kle4 said:Labour on around 300 seems at the upper end of the possible, but I'd put it as more likely than the Tories getting to the same level, unsurprisingly.
Would be great if they exceed that.
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Ah thanksTheScreamingEagles said:
It first appeared on the last thread.bigjohnowls said:
I was too late retweeting you on here I see.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Labour, while 24 % disagreed.
So on a net basis
+14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories
Was there a delay in your post appearing here or have I had too much Bacardi tonight
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Mr Crosby has appeared.
Do you have any changes to your GE 2015 forecast yet?0 -
Labour give up Scotland to try and win "middle" England.bigjohnowls said:
Compared to?Tykejohnno said:
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Guardian front page -
Labour’s big promise: no extra borrowing
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/trfvIVSY07
Fair enough.0 -
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Sun front page:
No Ed for business
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/U7Xahji3IX
Yet another letter,this time from 100 small traders.0 -
There's limited evidence for Labour achieving those levels of gains. Just look at the Ashcroft polls.bigjohnowls said:
My latest forecast was Lab 292.kle4 said:Labour on around 300 seems at the upper end of the possible, but I'd put it as more likely than the Tories getting to the same level, unsurprisingly.
Would be great if they exceed that.
Labour will get between 15-45 gains from the Conservatives. No more than 11 gains from the Lib Dems, and lose between 24-38 seats to the SNP.
Labour's ceiling is 290 seats. But that's if absolutely everything goes in their favour.0 -
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
If Labour manifesto is as costed as they're boasting it's going to be another terrible week for the Tories. Where is the magic money tree?
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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?0 -
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Times front page:
Passionate Cameron outlines his
Tory dream
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/qPQGZywCRe
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Curtice needs to name the Labour seats not falling to the SNP to be credible.Casino_Royale said:Curtice says Labour on 302 with 30 losses to the SNP, and the LDs on 20. That would mean something like 60+ direct gains by Labour from Conservative.
That seems somewhat unlikely.0 -
Oh for Christ's sake. Labour are not going to get their working-class "core voters" who hate politics to the polls with dull wishy-washiness about being "fiscally responsible". They need to give hope that they're actually going to make life better for them.0
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Election watch
3rd piece of election literature has arrived, and its a 2nd UKIP leaflet, a big improvement on the previous effort that I criticised on here.. this time its bright and informative with pictures of a purple horse beating a blue horse in a tight finish..
"Labour cant win, The Tories dont deserve to win.. UKIP can win"
Says Labour know they cant win and aren't trying.. but the only other bit of election propaganda I have received is the Labour leaflet.. surprisingly nothing from the Tories
To balance that, I drove to Brentwood today and there are Tory placards everywhere... probably saw a dozen. Havent even looked at the odds but as Eric Pickles is the MP guess its too short a certainty to bet on
I will look and edit...
1/100 best price!0 -
Labour has potential for some gains deeper than the Ashcroft polling limit - Reading West, Crewe and Nantwich, Portsmouth North where I'm on Labour, Tory, Tory... but they are all possible for Labour imo (Tho I hope not with Pompey NorthCasino_Royale said:
There's limited evidence for Labour achieving those levels of gains. Just look at the Ashcroft polls.bigjohnowls said:
My latest forecast was Lab 292.kle4 said:Labour on around 300 seems at the upper end of the possible, but I'd put it as more likely than the Tories getting to the same level, unsurprisingly.
Would be great if they exceed that.
Labour will get between 15-45 gains from the Conservatives. No more than 11 gains from the Lib Dems, and lose between 24-38 seats to the SNP.
Labour's ceiling is 290 seats. But that's if absolutely everything goes in their favour.
) 0 -
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?0 -
DH will still give Tory campaign the lead MethinksTykejohnno said:
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
If Labour manifesto is as costed as they're boasting it's going to be another terrible week for the Tories. Where is the magic money tree?
Does anyone think Milliband might have been less crap than they thought?0 -
Tyko
"Yet another letter,this time from 100 small traders."
I think the Pimlico pole dancers are coming out for the Greens0 -
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?0 -
I actually agree but it is possible the benefits are in the small print.Danny565 said:Oh for Christ's sake. Labour are not going to get their working-class "core voters" who hate politics to the polls with dull wishy-washiness about being "fiscally responsible". They need to give hope that they're actually going to make life better for them.
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I thought that last week after they successfully started an anti-fat cat campaign, but if they're now sliding back to the crap about "balancing the books" which worked so disastrously for them in all of 2014 then I go back to my original opinion.bigjohnowls said:
Does anyone think Milliband might have been less crap than they thought?0 -
Broken, useless, hopeless Cam in the slide...
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 5s 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
Longest Easter ever.GIN1138 said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 5s 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 54s55 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
EICIPM0 -
Evening All!0
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Is there a poll tonight?
Edit. It looks like they do. This has to be the most right wing Tory government since the early 80's.0 -
I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?0
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Tut Tut - That three point lead was leaked on FB 2 hours ago. Come on PB get with it.0
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I quite like the IHT announcement too, but Dave is toast tbh.
Clegg talking to Miliband is another nail in his coffin.
Labour can work with (I say in the loosest sense of the word) PC, SNP, LD, DUP, SDLP, Respect, Green.
Conservatives have DUP, LD and UKIP.
Dave's potential allies are skinny.0 -
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?0 -
CROSBYSWINGBACKADINGDONG?SMukesh said:I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?
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LOLPulpstar said:
Longest Easter ever.GIN1138 said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 5s 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Love it!0 -
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.0 -
Yep we now all know how to get the result before the Sun Tweet.
Top left corner of YG site0 -
If Labour are being mullered in Scotland, I assume there must be a sizeable swing to His Crapness in England?GIN1138 said:Broken, useless, hopeless Cam in the slide...
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 5s 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
They're more socially liberal than Thatcher for sure, but there's an argument that they're further to the Right on the economy. Even Thatcher once said she was "concerned" about how big the salaries were of the top City bankers, she atleast had the political nous to know it was suicide to be seen to be the super-rich's slave, while Dave and George still don't seem to have realised that.Roger said:Is there a poll tonight?
Edit. It looks like they do. This has to be the most right wing Tory government since the early 80's.0 -
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.0 -
I'm not a tory,but I want them to win because I have a feeling your lot will take us backwards,terrible run campaign so far by the tories and no sign of it getting better.SMukesh said:I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?
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Tories are so close to being dead. And no, this isn't because of one poll. It's because there's still no sign of the Tories pulling away. If they were going to be 4-5 points ahead on GE day, which they need to be, shouldn't they be consistently tied or slightly ahead, rather than sometimes ahead, sometimes tied, and sometimes behind (and sometimes quite far behind)?
No hopers (almost).0 -
Hat-tip to my near-namesake NickP, whoever he is, for finding that YG result earlier, and apologies for eyeing him warily.
Can't say I've noticed anything much on the doorstep - two Con->Lab switchers and one the other way, but otherwise much as usual. FWIW one Con->Lab switcher was motivated by the £1M IHT promise, which is irrelevant up here - "I see the Tories are just looking after themselves again, I've had enough of that". The Lab->Con one woudn't say why!0 -
Labour are 1% ahead essentially when you consider Conservative battleground as they have lost that in Scotland so it must drop back into the England/Wales Con Battleground.compouter2 said:
If Labour are being mullered in Scotland, I assume there must be a sizeable swing to His Crapness in England?GIN1138 said:Broken, useless, hopeless Cam in the slide...
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 5s 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
Pulpstar
"Labour can work with (I say in the loosest sense of the word) PC, SNP, LD, DUP, SDLP, Respect, Green."
Apart from UKIP who I would say are now to the left of the Tories I can't see any party touching the Tories with a bargepole. They've gone nasty again0 -
I don't think they're realistic prospects. The Tory vote is holding up quite comfortably, UKIP are being squeezed, and there aren't enough Lib Dem votes to get Labour close enough.Pulpstar said:
Labour has potential for some gains deeper than the Ashcroft polling limit - Reading West, Crewe and Nantwich, Portsmouth North where I'm on Labour, Tory, Tory... but they are all possible for Labour imo (Tho I hope not with Pompey NorthCasino_Royale said:
There's limited evidence for Labour achieving those levels of gains. Just look at the Ashcroft polls.bigjohnowls said:
My latest forecast was Lab 292.kle4 said:Labour on around 300 seems at the upper end of the possible, but I'd put it as more likely than the Tories getting to the same level, unsurprisingly.
Would be great if they exceed that.
Labour will get between 15-45 gains from the Conservatives. No more than 11 gains from the Lib Dems, and lose between 24-38 seats to the SNP.
Labour's ceiling is 290 seats. But that's if absolutely everything goes in their favour. )0 -
Borders please, WAK I need to go SNPTheScreamingEagles said:
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.
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One day Tyke we will take our party back :-)Tykejohnno said:
I'm not a tory,but I want them to win because I have a feeling your lot will take us backwards,terrible run campaign so far by the tories and no sign of it getting better.SMukesh said:I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?
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Where are you expecting the 3 Tories? Dumfriesshire, Berwickshire and...?TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.0 -
1% ahead must be a big swing on 2010? Yes?Pulpstar said:
Labour are 1% ahead essentially when you consider Conservative battleground as they have lost that in Scotland so it must drop back into the England/Wales Con Battleground.compouter2 said:
If Labour are being mullered in Scotland, I assume there must be a sizeable swing to His Crapness in England?GIN1138 said:Broken, useless, hopeless Cam in the slide...
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 5s 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%0 -
What amazes me is that some Tories were confident (at least outwardly) before the SLAB disaster materialized. How in the hell was that supposed to work, especially since as we know Lab have more options to work with than the Tories, as Pulpstar points out.0
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I identified Reading West at the precise same time I thought Pudsey was looking better than trend for the Conservatives. (Took 11-4 Labour Reading West & 9-4 Conservative Pudsey)Casino_Royale said:
I don't think they're realistic prospects. The Tory vote is holding up quite comfortably, UKIP are being squeezed, and there aren't enough Lib Dem votes to get Labour close enough.Pulpstar said:
Labour has potential for some gains deeper than the Ashcroft polling limit - Reading West, Crewe and Nantwich, Portsmouth North where I'm on Labour, Tory, Tory... but they are all possible for Labour imo (Tho I hope not with Pompey NorthCasino_Royale said:
There's limited evidence for Labour achieving those levels of gains. Just look at the Ashcroft polls.bigjohnowls said:
My latest forecast was Lab 292.kle4 said:Labour on around 300 seems at the upper end of the possible, but I'd put it as more likely than the Tories getting to the same level, unsurprisingly.
Would be great if they exceed that.
Labour will get between 15-45 gains from the Conservatives. No more than 11 gains from the Lib Dems, and lose between 24-38 seats to the SNP.
Labour's ceiling is 290 seats. But that's if absolutely everything goes in their favour. )
Depends if Miliband comes up with a big rail announcement tbh. That could swing it.0 -
Well the budget lock seems a brilliant manoeuvre but I expect a little bit of excitement also from the Lab budget.I hope they don`t disappoint.Tykejohnno said:
I'm not a tory,but I want them to win because I have a feeling your lot will take us backwards,terrible run campaign so far by the tories and no sign of it getting better.SMukesh said:I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?
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This week's ELBOW in graphical form:
Lab 34.3% (+0.5)
Con 33.1 (-1.0)
UKIP 13.7 (nc)
LD 8.2 (+0.2)
Green 4.9 (+0.1)
Lab lead 1.2% (+1.6)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5873694262714777600 -
Dumfries Galloway will be the third, but I reckon the SNP will hose up there.Danny565 said:
Where are you expecting the 3 Tories? Dumfriesshire, Berwickshire and...?TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.
Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk remains a delicious mystery.0 -
Currently I have Labour on 278 seats: forecast here but it wouldn't take much more of a shift in the polls for them to go higher than that.Pulpstar said:
Labour has potential for some gains deeper than the Ashcroft polling limit - Reading West, Crewe and Nantwich, Portsmouth North where I'm on Labour, Tory, Tory... but they are all possible for Labour imo (Tho I hope not with Pompey NorthCasino_Royale said:
There's limited evidence for Labour achieving those levels of gains. Just look at the Ashcroft polls.bigjohnowls said:
My latest forecast was Lab 292.kle4 said:Labour on around 300 seems at the upper end of the possible, but I'd put it as more likely than the Tories getting to the same level, unsurprisingly.
Would be great if they exceed that.
Labour will get between 15-45 gains from the Conservatives. No more than 11 gains from the Lib Dems, and lose between 24-38 seats to the SNP.
Labour's ceiling is 290 seats. But that's if absolutely everything goes in their favour. )0 -
Big day tomorrow as we should get the first ICM poll of the campaign. If that has the Conservatives behind I think the knives will start to come out from Con MP's.
#megapollingmonday0 -
Ave It week one summary!
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
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In all seriousness a lot of people would have been travelling today at the end of the Easter holidays. The morning fast ferry from Dublin to Holyhead was full this morning, though many of its passengers were less full than when they boarded by the time it reached Holyhead, so rough were the seas...tyson said:
Silly...It is an Easter Poll. All the Tories are still basking on pistes of France and Italy and rushing back next week.SMukesh said:I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?
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Dumfries and GallowayDanny565 said:
Where are you expecting the 3 Tories? Dumfriesshire, Berwickshire and...?TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.0 -
Crossover crossed back!Sunil_Prasannan said:This week's ELBOW in graphical form:
Lab 34.3% (+0.5)
Con 33.1 (-1.0)
UKIP 13.7 (nc)
LD 8.2 (+0.2)
Green 4.9 (+0.1)
Lab lead 1.2% (+1.6)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587369426271477760
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Jordan Speith is quite sublime0
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It is a little worrying the polls aren't moving in the right direction yet, but I'm still confident there are enough intelligent British people to vote to prevent the two Eds getting anywhere near the halls of power. There's still plenty of time to go in this campaign, and a lot of positive things to say about what we have done since getting rid of Gordon Brown. I think if it stays this close a lot of UKIP voters will be coming home to the blue team because - whatever their views on Europe - if Britain goes bankrupt in the next five years under Labour then it's game over.0
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Re: Reading, Labour have been doing very well in local elections there in recent years. In fact, I believe they're actually doing a bit better in Reading East than West, despite the former having a bigger majority.0
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Dumfries & Galloway would be my pick for third but I think the LD support won't go to the Cons and so one or other of SNP or Labour must win by dint of half their combined vote being greater the Con vote. Incredibly bloody tight though.Danny565 said:
Where are you expecting the 3 Tories? Dumfriesshire, Berwickshire and...?TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.0 -
Annexe the borders for England. Salami slice Scotland until there is just Dundee holding out like Roose Bolton at Winterfell.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.0 -
If the polls continue as they are wonder how long before all these Forcast models, you know the ones showing Tory most seats, possible Tory majority etc develop magical tweaks that suddenly burst into Labour gains.
PS - GO LYNTON!!!!0 -
No chickens though the more a Lab Govt looks likely the more Tories come home from UKIP.kle4 said:What amazes me is that some Tories were confident (at least outwardly) before the SLAB disaster materialized. How in the hell was that supposed to work, especially since as we know Lab have more options to work with than the Tories, as Pulpstar points out.
I still reckon 290 for EIC looks about right for now.
If the rest of the campaign goes like the first 2 weeks over 300 a distinct possibility for LAB.
EWNBPM looking remote tonight but still over 3 weeks to go.0 -
I've been away in France for the last week (rather longer than expected, thanks to the French air-traffic controllers), but keeping an eye on things. Not much has changed, as far as I can see.
The Conservative IHT policy announcement is a disappointment. In fact, it looks pretty bonkers to me. If I understand it correctly, a widow living in a house which has grown in value to a chunky sum, but with no other assets and with minimal income, would have a perverse tax incentive not to do the sensible thing and downsize. That makes no sense as a policy.
Still, in the overall scheme of things, the key point is that it remains the case that a Miliband government, and especially a weak minority Labour government in thrall to the SNP, will be a disaster, and anyone who hasn't yet taken whatever protective measures they can should get on with it. Sadly, most people are not in a position to protect themselves.0 -
Ave It!Ave_it said:Ave It week one summary!
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
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Not until you get rid of people like harriet Harman at the top of your party and start electing more euro sceptic MP's.compouter2 said:
One day Tyke we will take our party back :-)Tykejohnno said:
I'm not a tory,but I want them to win because I have a feeling your lot will take us backwards,terrible run campaign so far by the tories and no sign of it getting better.SMukesh said:I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?
The few euro sceptic MP's in your party are your best MP's.
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The Tories are doing their very best to get as many anti-Tories as possible to vote.Danny565 said:Oh for Christ's sake. Labour are not going to get their working-class "core voters" who hate politics to the polls with dull wishy-washiness about being "fiscally responsible". They need to give hope that they're actually going to make life better for them.
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It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.0 -
Sounds like your in denial to me...trublue said:It is a little worrying the polls aren't moving in the right direction yet, but I'm still confident there are enough intelligent British people to vote to prevent the two Eds getting anywhere near the halls of power. There's still plenty of time to go in this campaign, and a lot of positive things to say about what we have done since getting rid of Gordon Brown. I think if it stays this close a lot of UKIP voters will be coming home to the blue team because - whatever their views on Europe - if Britain goes bankrupt in the next five years under Labour then it's game over.
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I hope they are back for the 7th of May mate!OblitusSumMe said:
In all seriousness a lot of people would have been travelling today at the end of the Easter holidays. The morning fast ferry from Dublin to Holyhead was full this morning, though many of its passengers were less full than when they boarded by the time it reached Holyhead, so rough were the seas...tyson said:
Silly...It is an Easter Poll. All the Tories are still basking on pistes of France and Italy and rushing back next week.SMukesh said:I wonder what the Tories make of that poll?
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Too late for this week's ELBOW, we'll include in next week'sbigjohnowls said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics 54s55 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
EICIPM
But enjoy the 1.2% Lab lead while you can!0 -
I'm sure England would love the Debateable Land back!TGOHF said:
Annexe the borders for England. Salami slice Scotland until there is just Dundee holding out like Roose Bolton at Winterfell.TheScreamingEagles said:
So long as there 3 Tory MPs in Scotland after May, that's all we're interested in.Pulpstar said:
Not a snowball's chance in hell.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to work out which other party would win a Glasgow seat?Pulpstar said:
It's times like this that I'm sad I'd need to tie £780 to win £6 on the market. If I could do it as a traditional bookie does I certainly would.TheScreamingEagles said:
Another party could win a Glasgow seat, putting SNP and Lab on 3 each.Pulpstar said:https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118023283
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Tories gain Glasgow North?
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.0
