Re: Reading, Labour have been doing very well in local elections there in recent years. In fact, I believe they're actually doing a bit better in Reading East than West, despite the former having a bigger majority.
I dismissed Reading East as too tough - I'll be sick as a pig if they get East and not West !
It is a little worrying the polls aren't moving in the right direction yet, but I'm still confident there are enough intelligent British people to vote to prevent the two Eds getting anywhere near the halls of power. There's still plenty of time to go in this campaign, and a lot of positive things to say about what we have done since getting rid of Gordon Brown. I think if it stays this close a lot of UKIP voters will be coming home to the blue team because - whatever their views on Europe - if Britain goes bankrupt in the next five years under Labour then it's game over.
My Facebook feed is full of posts from intelligent, professional friends of mine. Almost all of whom live in London.
It is a nigh-on continuous stream of soft-Left and anti-Tory sentiment.
Big day tomorrow as we should get the first ICM poll of the campaign. If that has the Conservatives behind I think the knives will start to come out from Con MP's.
#megapollingmonday
I am hoping for a Tory 4% lead. I love it on here when a poll shows a good Tory lead, plus I have just bought shares in tissues and laptop cleaners as the share prices have tanked.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
I think your summing up highlights one reason the problems in the 2nd paragraph have arisen. There seems to be a strand of thought, either by choice or out of confusion, that it wouldn't be that bad to lose now as Ed M will surely be so bad that they will rebound next time while also becoming more right wing or some such.
The problem is the idea Ed M will be a disaster is based on assuming he will be as extreme and uncautious as people believe, and personally I think he is too experienced and canny for that, he will be crappy but not a disaster. That would mean it is no guarantee the Tories will win outright in 2020, and their lack of enthusiasm for the fight this time will not necessarily pay off in 5 years.
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
Ave It!
GIN I like you - you are one of my favourite posters!
We are on the same side!
But if it wasn't for LAB trying to take even more of my money I would go LAB! All my friends are LAB! And I like Justine too!
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
The truth is the Tories are just gulping down their last Easter Spritz's at St Moritz, checking out their stock portfolios, and sorting out their private schooling fees. I doubt many of them realise an election has started. Of course, come next week, when they come back to their unanswered email and telephone messages from pollsters they will heartily cheer their support for the Blues and all will be how it should be.
Big day tomorrow as we should get the first ICM poll of the campaign. If that has the Conservatives behind I think the knives will start to come out from Con MP's.
#megapollingmonday
I am hoping for a Tory 4% lead. I love it on here when a poll shows a good Tory lead, plus I have just bought shares in tissues and laptop cleaners as the share prices have tanked.
I've never been able to fathom how people could write off someone smart and vicious enough to climb to the top of the snakepit that is the Labour party
His entire career is been made walking over the corpses of those who underestimated him, the guy is stone cold deadly but he hides it so well.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
There's still 578 hours to go to prevent it from happening and save our country. It's far too soon to be throwing in the towel yet. Although I agree with the doom and gloom you write about should it happen, it's still far from inevitable Miliband and Balls will ever get the chance to do what you describe. If they do win though, I'm out of here.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Whilst I wouldn't rule out and EdM meltdown government, particularly if 3 parties are needed to make a majority, I can't help feel this is very similar to the thinking Labour supporters had 5 years ago. 'The system' seems remarkably good at stopping people becoming main party leaders if they are totally incapable.
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
There is some truth in that, apart from the doomsday prediction!
The Conservatives concede to fight policy on Labour's chosen values turf very regularly. Just look at the IHT cut: they've recognised that some of Labour's attacks might ring true, so have joined in on the hammering of high-income earners to pay for it as a defensive measure.
That leads plenty of floating voters to conclude that perhaps Labour have a point about them, and are better off plumping for the real thing.
“Nothing is more dangerous to our NHS than saying you will protect it without being able to say where the money is coming from. You can’t help the NHS with an IOU.
Big day tomorrow as we should get the first ICM poll of the campaign. If that has the Conservatives behind I think the knives will start to come out from Con MP's.
#megapollingmonday
I am hoping for a Tory 4% lead. I love it on here when a poll shows a good Tory lead, plus I have just bought shares in tissues and laptop cleaners as the share prices have tanked.
Ukip supporters should vote Conservative in seats that Ukip has no chance of winning, Nigel Farage has suggested.
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
Big day tomorrow as we should get the first ICM poll of the campaign. If that has the Conservatives behind I think the knives will start to come out from Con MP's.
#megapollingmonday
I am hoping for a Tory 4% lead. I love it on here when a poll shows a good Tory lead, plus I have just bought shares in tissues and laptop cleaners as the share prices have tanked.
Reverse psychology. You'd prefer a 4% Lab lead with ICM and you know it.
Still, in the overall scheme of things, the key point is that it remains the case that a Miliband government, and especially a weak minority Labour government in thrall to the SNP, will be a disaster, and anyone who hasn't yet taken whatever protective measures they can should get on with it. Sadly, most people are not in a position to protect themselves.
If you're closish to retirement... get into cash !
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
Disastrous he might well be, but do you honestly in your heart of hearts believe Miliband is that left-wing? There's nothing he's said which would look out of place in an Angela Merkel manifesto.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
Big day tomorrow as we should get the first ICM poll of the campaign. If that has the Conservatives behind I think the knives will start to come out from Con MP's.
#megapollingmonday
I am hoping for a Tory 4% lead. I love it on here when a poll shows a good Tory lead, plus I have just bought shares in tissues and laptop cleaners as the share prices have tanked.
Reverse psychology. You'd prefer a 4% Lab lead with ICM and you know it.
Looking at a quick killing on the shares,need that Tory big lead.
The Conservative IHT policy announcement is a disappointment. In fact, it looks pretty bonkers to me. If I understand it correctly, a widow living in a house which has grown in value to a chunky sum, but with no other assets and with minimal income, would have a perverse tax incentive not to do the sensible thing and downsize. That makes no sense as a policy.
Government by Daily Mail.
I don't rate Miliband. I make no judgement as to whether the management of the country will be better if he makes it to Number Ten or not. I will though say one thing in his favour.
Unlike Brown and unlike Osborne, he is not afraid to upset the Daily Mail and he does not craft policies with the sole object of winning an approving headline from that paper.
Perhaps where he leads other politicians will be less afraid to follow.
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
Ave It!
GIN I like you - you are one of my favourite posters!
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Ukip supporters should vote Conservative in seats that Ukip has no chance of winning, Nigel Farage has suggested.
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
Re: Reading, Labour have been doing very well in local elections there in recent years. In fact, I believe they're actually doing a bit better in Reading East than West, despite the former having a bigger majority.
Labour have certainly been doing well in Reading Borough Council elections, Reading East does include some deep blue Wokingham wards though.
The Greens are quite active in Reading too. I think they pushed the LDs into fourth place in the 2014 locals.
"Even Thatcher once said she was "concerned" about how big the salaries were of the top City bankers, she atleast had the political nous to know it was suicide to be seen to be the super-rich's slave, while Dave and George still don't seem to have realised that."
I don't understand the Tories positioning at all. The only thing they had to do during the campaign was not to look like the party for millionaires. So the first thing they do is get 100 millionaire business leaders writing to the Telegraph saying vote Tory.
The two words that shouldn't be in the same sentence are '£1,000,000' and 'Tory tax cut'. So what do we get today? Tory tax cut for £1,000,000 houses.
I've never been able to fathom how people could write off someone smart and vicious enough to climb to the top of the snakepit that is the Labour party
His entire career is been made walking over the corpses of those who underestimated him, the guy is stone cold deadly but he hides it so well.
Someone is asking for a monkey at 2.14, so odds on time is approaching
Big day tomorrow as we should get the first ICM poll of the campaign. If that has the Conservatives behind I think the knives will start to come out from Con MP's.
#megapollingmonday
I am hoping for a Tory 4% lead. I love it on here when a poll shows a good Tory lead, plus I have just bought shares in tissues and laptop cleaners as the share prices have tanked.
Just like the labourites tonight ;-)
Considering there is about four of us, wouldn't make a single movement on the share price. 4% Tory lead and you can actually feel the premeture polling ejaculation. It's like being in the middle of a PB Hodge Tsunami . The server nearly explodes ;-)
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Your right,it's a load of bollox.
The pledge is for the deficit to come down every year. As he doesn`t make many pledges,he probably intends to keep it.
Ukip supporters should vote Conservative in seats that Ukip has no chance of winning, Nigel Farage has suggested.
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
I think you have hit the nail on the head with your comments on UKIP making inroads in the north. Labour will continue to push their progressive agenda which whilst appealing to their voters in London and other metropolitan areas, will not appeal to many of their northern voters. UKIP will hopefully be able to take some of Labour's strongholds which the Tories did not stand a chance in.
Ukip supporters should vote Conservative in seats that Ukip has no chance of winning, Nigel Farage has suggested.
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
Yep. Most probably in solid red seats anyway, but any national share boost helps further the narrative that this is Labour's election to lose (which the narrative should be already, but no, even though we're only a few weeks out, of course the polls most shift into a 5 point Tory lead consistently soon).
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
I'm not sure there will be much of a Tory civil war to be honest...
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
I'm not sure there will be much of a Tory civil war to be honest...
One danger when everyone expects a hung Parliament is that everyone can come out with daft populist policies safe in the knowledge that they'll end up on the cutting room floor in the post-election negotiations.
Separately, if Labour's first budget would cut the deficit every year, are we to infer that they have no intention of actually ever eliminating it?
"Even Thatcher once said she was "concerned" about how big the salaries were of the top City bankers, she atleast had the political nous to know it was suicide to be seen to be the super-rich's slave, while Dave and George still don't seem to have realised that."
I don't understand the Tories positioning at all. The only thing they had to do during the campaign was not to look like the party for millionaires. So the first thing they do is get 100 millionaire business leaders writing to the Telegraph saying vote Tory.
The two words that shouldn't be in the same sentence are '£1,000,000' and 'Tory tax cut'. So what do we get today? Tory tax cut for £1,000,000 houses.
I heard someone on the local radio say "Cameron doesn't think people with £1million houses are rich, to many in the UK they are, and that is his problem".
The Conservative IHT policy announcement is a disappointment. In fact, it looks pretty bonkers to me. If I understand it correctly, a widow living in a house which has grown in value to a chunky sum, but with no other assets and with minimal income, would have a perverse tax incentive not to do the sensible thing and downsize. That makes no sense as a policy.
Government by Daily Mail.
I don't rate Miliband. I make no judgement as to whether the management of the country will be better if he makes it to Number Ten or not. I will though say one thing in his favour.
Unlike Brown and unlike Osborne, he is not afraid to upset the Daily Mail and he does not craft policies with the sole object of winning an approving headline from that paper.
Perhaps where he leads other politicians will be less afraid to follow.
Well he would upset a rightwing newspaper,shame he doesn't with a leftwing mirror trinity group over phone hacking.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
Ukip supporters should vote Conservative in seats that Ukip has no chance of winning, Nigel Farage has suggested.
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
Thinking for the future? Maybe he regrets going quite as broad brush populist as he has at times, and is worried about the Toryish leaning part of the party being eclipsed by former Labourites or even a wholly new breed of Carswellian types. So jettison those Labour ones now - it's not was though many Lab seats were winnable anyway - and the only ones left to focus on after the GE will be the old guard and the single new strand.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
Ukip supporters should vote Conservative in seats that Ukip has no chance of winning, Nigel Farage has suggested.
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
Fecked up last post. Meant to congratulate Ave It on his football team this year, although they will lose out in play offs. I have always sensed he is a closet Labourite and I am sure he will do the right thing on May 7th. You know you want to, Ave It.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
Yes, absolutely right. Ed as PM would undoubtedly be an unmitigated disaster - worse even than Brown - and will very rapidly descend into Hollande-like levels of unpopularity. However, that doesn't of itself guarantee that we'll rapidly get back to sane government; on the contrary, my expectation is that we won't, with the centre-right divided and unable to capitalise on Labour's unpopularity. We are likely to lurch from one chaotic government to another.
There's no law of nature which says we will be competently governed - rather the contrary, in fact. We had a decade and a half of decline from the mid-sixties until 1979, and I expect something similar for the next decade or two.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
I'm not sure there will be much of a Tory civil war to be honest...
There will be.
As night follows day.
Boris will be a great LOTO but would be a terrible PM I think because he want's to be liked and won't want to make difficult choices.
That would be OK in good times (like Tony) but if things are as bad as I think they will be post Miliband... Then what?
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's wait for Cameron, Osborne and Lynton to be booted out and then we can see where things stand.
The Conservative IHT policy announcement is a disappointment. In fact, it looks pretty bonkers to me. If I understand it correctly, a widow living in a house which has grown in value to a chunky sum, but with no other assets and with minimal income, would have a perverse tax incentive not to do the sensible thing and downsize. That makes no sense as a policy.
Government by Daily Mail.
I don't rate Miliband. I make no judgement as to whether the management of the country will be better if he makes it to Number Ten or not. I will though say one thing in his favour.
Unlike Brown and unlike Osborne, he is not afraid to upset the Daily Mail and he does not craft policies with the sole object of winning an approving headline from that paper.
Perhaps where he leads other politicians will be less afraid to follow.
Well he would upset a rightwing newspaper,shame he doesn't with a leftwing mirror trinity group over phone hacking.
Thank you for exposing the enormous gaping flaw in the pro Miliband argument.
Ukip supporters should vote Conservative in seats that Ukip has no chance of winning, Nigel Farage has suggested.
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
He doesn't actually endorse voting for any particular party.
The quote is: "Of course, it’s a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
The part about voting for the Conservative candidate comes from the Telegraph journalist.
Mr Farage dismisses the Prime Minister’s call for Ukip voters to “come home” to the Tories. When pushed, however, he does concede that his supporters could back Conservative candidates in areas where there is no chance of winning, although he wants Tories to vote Ukip tactically too. “Of course, it’s a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can.”
"Even Thatcher once said she was "concerned" about how big the salaries were of the top City bankers, she atleast had the political nous to know it was suicide to be seen to be the super-rich's slave, while Dave and George still don't seem to have realised that."
I don't understand the Tories positioning at all. The only thing they had to do during the campaign was not to look like the party for millionaires. So the first thing they do is get 100 millionaire business leaders writing to the Telegraph saying vote Tory.
The two words that shouldn't be in the same sentence are '£1,000,000' and 'Tory tax cut'. So what do we get today? Tory tax cut for £1,000,000 houses.
Yep, so far the Tory campaign does seem to have been designed to get Ed-sceptic anti-Tories off their arses and down to the polling booths to vote Labour on election day. Labour has not had to do much except keep Ed's gaffe count down, which so far they've done pretty well. But it's a mountain to climb with Scotland gone. Now, if for whatever reason the polls were overstating the SNP's lead over SLab, that would change everything ...
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
I think your summing up highlights one reason the problems in the 2nd paragraph have arisen. There seems to be a strand of thought, either by choice or out of confusion, that it wouldn't be that bad to lose now as Ed M will surely be so bad that they will rebound next time while also becoming more right wing or some such.
The problem is the idea Ed M will be a disaster is based on assuming he will be as extreme and uncautious as people believe, and personally I think he is too experienced and canny for that, he will be crappy but not a disaster. That would mean it is no guarantee the Tories will win outright in 2020, and their lack of enthusiasm for the fight this time will not necessarily pay off in 5 years.
Ed Miliband is a man who thinks, in all seriousness, that the next James Bond should be a woman.
Although he is tactically and strategically sharper than almost all Conservatives gave him credit for, but in both economic, social and cultural policy he is (unquestionably) an old-school Lefty.
If the Conservatives want to win next time, they need to win the intellectual arguments on values and principles first. And that is about so much more than a few PR stunts and contriving greater visual diversity of their candidate base.
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
There is some truth in that, apart from the doomsday prediction!
The Conservatives concede to fight policy on Labour's chosen values turf very regularly. Just look at the IHT cut: they've recognised that some of Labour's attacks might ring true, so have joined in on the hammering of high-income earners to pay for it as a defensive measure.
That leads plenty of floating voters to conclude that perhaps Labour have a point about them, and are better off plumping for the real thing.
A couple of hours ago you thought Lab 290 seats was unlikely.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
I'm not sure there will be much of a Tory civil war to be honest...
There will be.
As night follows day.
Boris will be a great LOTO but would be a terrible PM I think because he want's to be liked and won't want to make difficult choices.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's wait for Cameron, Osborne and Lynton to be booted out and then we can see where things stand.
The history of the Tory party has shown, a lot of the times the favourite doesn't win (in fact SuperMac was the last favourite to win the Tory leadership)
But the thing that scares me, we elected IDS and William Hague, not because they weren't Kenneth Clarke.
John Major won because he wasn't Michael Heseltine.
I just know it, we'll end up with Owen Paterson, because he's not Boris.
That Labour budget promise has all the hall marks of a Brownite attempt to be able to move fiscal goal posts while claiming to be sticking to their fiscal 'golden rule'.....
One danger when everyone expects a hung Parliament is that everyone can come out with daft populist policies safe in the knowledge that they'll end up on the cutting room floor in the post-election negotiations.
Separately, if Labour's first budget would cut the deficit every year, are we to infer that they have no intention of actually ever eliminating it?
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
I'm not sure there will be much of a Tory civil war to be honest...
There will be.
As night follows day.
I posted last night that I cannot see how the Tories could cope with losing. Armed with a popular leader, economy and stable coalition they are facing the Ed's and Labour's woeful economic polling. The Tories will be so angry- they'll blame the electorate for sure, each other for sure, and anyone else for sure. If they cannot win this election is there any possible election they could win? Starter for ten.
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
There is some truth in that, apart from the doomsday prediction!
The Conservatives concede to fight policy on Labour's chosen values turf very regularly. Just look at the IHT cut: they've recognised that some of Labour's attacks might ring true, so have joined in on the hammering of high-income earners to pay for it as a defensive measure.
That leads plenty of floating voters to conclude that perhaps Labour have a point about them, and are better off plumping for the real thing.
A couple of hours ago you thought Lab 290 seats was unlikely.
One poll should not change your mind.
It is still all to play for.
EICIPM slight favourite IMO
CROSSOVER on Betfair PM market at 1.98.
LAB most seats still 2.70
I still think Lab 290 seats is unlikely, and their ceiling.
But that isn't relevant: Ed can become Prime Minister on 270 seats. Cameron needs to hold onto 295+ seats to remain PM; it's that which I fear has now slipped away.
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Your right,it's a load of bollox.
The pledge is for the deficit to come down every year. As he doesn`t make many pledges,he probably intends to keep it.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 34s34 seconds ago Miliband refuses to match Conservatives’ pledge to spend an extra £8billion on the NHS http://sunpl.us/60144m1O
LOL £8BN unfunded pledge by Tories.
GO 18 answers failing to say how its funded yet current bun thinks its gospel and thinks voters will swallow it
YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Labour, while 24 % disagreed.
So on a net basis
+14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 18s18 seconds ago #libdems and #Greens in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) - LDs highest since August! And Greens up a tad too
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
I'm not sure there will be much of a Tory civil war to be honest...
There will be.
As night follows day.
No, if it came to that, I doubt it. And as far as Miliband goes its very dangerous to be casual about the damage any Miliband government could do to the country and the measures they would take to gerrymander their position. Any problem that any Miliband govt would have would come from being puppets to the SNP.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
Yes, absolutely right. Ed as PM would undoubtedly be an unmitigated disaster - worse even than Brown - and will very rapidly descend into Hollande-like levels of unpopularity. However, that doesn't of itself guarantee that we'll rapidly get back to sane government; on the contrary, my expectation is that we won't, with the centre-right divided and unable to capitalise on Labour's unpopularity. We are likely to lurch from one chaotic government to another.
There's no law of nature which says we will be competently governed - rather the contrary, in fact. We had a decade and a half of decline from the mid-sixties until 1979, and I expect something similar for the next decade or two.
I'm not sure. The Tory parliamentary party is much larger than in 1997-2005, newer and more practical. But I concede any moderniser candidate would have a very hard time.
I don't think the centre-right will necessarily stay divided, if in opposition a new Tory leader can rally votes from both UKIP and the Lib Dems.
The big question Cameron never satisfactorily answered is why he never achieved a thumping win in 2010, given the huge leads (with pollshares into the 40s) he was clocking in 2008-2009.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
I think you have hit the nail on the head with your comments on UKIP making inroads in the north. Labour will continue to push their progressive agenda which whilst appealing to their voters in London and other metropolitan areas, will not appeal to many of their northern voters. UKIP will hopefully be able to take some of Labour's strongholds which the Tories did not stand a chance in.
Absurd. 'Strongholds'? All UKIP might do is deny an opportunity for labour to lose in their marginals.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
I think your summing up highlights one reason the problems in the 2nd paragraph have arisen. There seems to be a strand of thought, either by choice or out of confusion, that it wouldn't be that bad to lose now as Ed M will surely be so bad that they will rebound next time while also becoming more right wing or some such.
The problem is the idea Ed M will be a disaster is based on assuming he will be as extreme and uncautious as people believe, and personally I think he is too experienced and canny for that, he will be crappy but not a disaster. That would mean it is no guarantee the Tories will win outright in 2020, and their lack of enthusiasm for the fight this time will not necessarily pay off in 5 years.
Ed Miliband is a man who thinks, in all seriousness, that the next James Bond should be a woman.
Although he is tactically and strategically sharper than almost all Conservatives gave him credit for, but in both economic, social and cultural policy he is (unquestionably) an old-school Lefty.
If the Conservatives want to win next time, they need to win the intellectual arguments on values and principles first. And that is about so much more than a few PR stunts and contriving greater visual diversity of their candidate base.
Should be fun when we start getting the immigration figures under a miliband government
For a start,the looney left that run the labour party will want thousands more refugee's from Syria,that's just the start.
ARF!, not seen Basil this downhearted since omnishambles. Just bought a pile of Tramadol, something tells me his back is about to go and those PB Hodge polling goalposts wont carry themselves.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 47s47 seconds ago #UKIP 's decline in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) halted for now - unchanged 13.7% w/e 12th April 2015
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
He won't.
Edit: I see Casino beat me to it!
I wish I could share yours and Mr Royale's faith.
But we're the party who elected IDS!
We've learnt lessons since then. IDS won because Portillo was known to be sly and untrustworthy (has their ever been a Tory leader he hasn't backstabbed?) and Ken Clarke's views on the euro were unpalatable.
The big dividing lines will be on immigration and the EU (in/out) but the Tory party should be able to rally around a continuing commitment to an (expanded/better) renegotiation and referendum on the latter.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
DPM in talks with EIC and you trust he will prop up Dave?
I think the phrase in all likleyhood the electoral arithmetic will not stack up and you will have voted for a man prepared to prostitute himself to EIC
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
DPM in talks with EIC and you trust he will prop up Dave?
I think the phrase iN all likleyhood the electoral arithmetic doesn't stack up and you will have voted for a man prepared to prostitute himself to EIC
There's too much enmity between Ed and Nick for that.
I still have a property in Manchester Central.
Is it too late for me to register there and waste my vote with impunity?
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
DPM in talks with EIC and you trust he will prop up Dave?
I think the phrase in all likleyhood the electoral arithmetic will not stack up and you will have voted for a man prepared to prostitute himself to EIC
Nick Clegg still in Government. No matter who wins !
Can see it now.
Vote Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Respect or Green - doesn't matter who you vote for Nick Clegg always gets in .
Comments
Well done OSBORNE why don't you take another dividend from Mummy and Daddy's business?!
**n*
It is a nigh-on continuous stream of soft-Left and anti-Tory sentiment.
The problem is the idea Ed M will be a disaster is based on assuming he will be as extreme and uncautious as people believe, and personally I think he is too experienced and canny for that, he will be crappy but not a disaster. That would mean it is no guarantee the Tories will win outright in 2020, and their lack of enthusiasm for the fight this time will not necessarily pay off in 5 years.
We are on the same side!
But if it wasn't for LAB trying to take even more of my money I would go LAB! All my friends are LAB! And I like Justine too!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32279977
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Very good.
The truth is the Tories are just gulping down their last Easter Spritz's at St Moritz, checking out their stock portfolios, and sorting out their private schooling fees. I doubt many of them realise an election has started.
Of course, come next week, when they come back to their unanswered email and telephone messages from pollsters they will heartily cheer their support for the Blues and all will be how it should be.
Really should be by now.
I've never been able to fathom how people could write off someone smart and vicious enough to climb to the top of the snakepit that is the Labour party
His entire career is been made walking over the corpses of those who underestimated him, the guy is stone cold deadly but he hides it so well.
The Conservatives concede to fight policy on Labour's chosen values turf very regularly. Just look at the IHT cut: they've recognised that some of Labour's attacks might ring true, so have joined in on the hammering of high-income earners to pay for it as a defensive measure.
That leads plenty of floating voters to conclude that perhaps Labour have a point about them, and are better off plumping for the real thing.
EIC tomorrows Mirror
The UK Independence Party leader took the unusual step of encouraging tactical voting, telling the Telegraph: "Of course, it's a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
Tory voters should also vote tactically for Ukip, which is fielding candidates in 625 out of 650 seats, he said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11531049/Nigel-Farage-Vote-Conservative-in-seats-Ukip-cant-win.html
We're F***ked
Mike - you can put on one of your 'CON will lose by 500 seats' threads and it will be right!
Thanks David and George - back to spending the family money?!
I don't rate Miliband. I make no judgement as to whether the management of the country will be better if he makes it to Number Ten or not. I will though say one thing in his favour.
Unlike Brown and unlike Osborne, he is not afraid to upset the Daily Mail and he does not craft policies with the sole object of winning an approving headline from that paper.
Perhaps where he leads other politicians will be less afraid to follow.
All this will do is send red kippers back home !
The Greens are quite active in Reading too. I think they pushed the LDs into fourth place in the 2014 locals.
"Even Thatcher once said she was "concerned" about how big the salaries were of the top City bankers, she atleast had the political nous to know it was suicide to be seen to be the super-rich's slave, while Dave and George still don't seem to have realised that."
I don't understand the Tories positioning at all. The only thing they had to do during the campaign was not to look like the party for millionaires. So the first thing they do is get 100 millionaire business leaders writing to the Telegraph saying vote Tory.
The two words that shouldn't be in the same sentence are '£1,000,000' and 'Tory tax cut'. So what do we get today? Tory tax cut for £1,000,000 houses.
As he doesn`t make many pledges,he probably intends to keep it.
Not a betting inducement - DYOR
As night follows day.
Separately, if Labour's first budget would cut the deficit every year, are we to infer that they have no intention of actually ever eliminating it?
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
Ooops - must be impartial when discussing ELBOW
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587374673740091392
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
I have always sensed he is a closet Labourite and I am sure he will do the right thing on May 7th. You know you want to, Ave It.
There's no law of nature which says we will be competently governed - rather the contrary, in fact. We had a decade and a half of decline from the mid-sixties until 1979, and I expect something similar for the next decade or two.
That would be OK in good times (like Tony) but if things are as bad as I think they will be post Miliband... Then what?
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's wait for Cameron, Osborne and Lynton to be booted out and then we can see where things stand.
Definitely not safe for work, or the easily shocked.
(htttp removed for taste reasons)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFmYBcqGDt8
The quote is:
"Of course, it’s a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can."
The part about voting for the Conservative candidate comes from the Telegraph journalist. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11529907/Nigel-Farage-interview-I-am-not-playing-the-game.html
"GIN I like you - you are one of my favourite posters!"
He's the only Tory with a permanent smile on his face. That's worth something!
I suspect we will fall just short. Not a good season for you although you will be back - Cardiff still a big club!
Think CON could still do ok Wales - you want the CON hold Cardiff Central!
Although he is tactically and strategically sharper than almost all Conservatives gave him credit for, but in both economic, social and cultural policy he is (unquestionably) an old-school Lefty.
If the Conservatives want to win next time, they need to win the intellectual arguments on values and principles first. And that is about so much more than a few PR stunts and contriving greater visual diversity of their candidate base.
One poll should not change your mind.
It is still all to play for.
EICIPM slight favourite IMO
CROSSOVER on Betfair PM market at 1.98.
LAB most seats still 2.70
But the thing that scares me, we elected IDS and William Hague, not because they weren't Kenneth Clarke.
John Major won because he wasn't Michael Heseltine.
I just know it, we'll end up with Owen Paterson, because he's not Boris.
If they cannot win this election is there any possible election they could win? Starter for ten.
But that isn't relevant: Ed can become Prime Minister on 270 seats. Cameron needs to hold onto 295+ seats to remain PM; it's that which I fear has now slipped away.
Callum May @callummay
Observations: Labour already said they might borrow for investment spending. And in Scotland they're painting themselves as "anti-austerity"
"Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?"
Ave-It on the Nail!!
Edit: I see Casino beat me to it!
Miliband refuses to match Conservatives’ pledge to spend an extra £8billion on the NHS http://sunpl.us/60144m1O
LOL £8BN unfunded pledge by Tories.
GO 18 answers failing to say how its funded yet current bun thinks its gospel and thinks voters will swallow it
YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Labour, while 24 % disagreed.
So on a net basis
+14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories
Our policies have been brilliant 2010 to 2015 except we should have cut all benefits but weren't allowed to by Nick
But the leadership is useless and we won't win again - we will be under a LAB led left wing regime for ever - no point voting
https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher/status/586557998203543552/photo/1
TO LABOUR.
#libdems and #Greens in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) - LDs highest since August! And Greens up a tad too
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587376864668286976
Any problem that any Miliband govt would have would come from being puppets to the SNP.
Cameron = Heath
Miliband = Wilson
1970s here we come.
But we're the party who elected IDS!
I don't think the centre-right will necessarily stay divided, if in opposition a new Tory leader can rally votes from both UKIP and the Lib Dems.
The big question Cameron never satisfactorily answered is why he never achieved a thumping win in 2010, given the huge leads (with pollshares into the 40s) he was clocking in 2008-2009.
This should have been a Tory decade.
All UKIP might do is deny an opportunity for labour to lose in their marginals.
For a start,the looney left that run the labour party will want thousands more refugee's from Syria,that's just the start.
#UKIP 's decline in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) halted for now - unchanged 13.7% w/e 12th April 2015
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587377968634318848
The big dividing lines will be on immigration and the EU (in/out) but the Tory party should be able to rally around a continuing commitment to an (expanded/better) renegotiation and referendum on the latter.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
@PickardJE: Labour's promise not to spend more money is a non sequitur to the real question, which is: how will you get national debt falling by 2020?
I think the phrase in all likleyhood the electoral arithmetic will not stack up and you will have voted for a man prepared to prostitute himself to EIC
I still have a property in Manchester Central.
Is it too late for me to register there and waste my vote with impunity?
Can see it now.
Vote Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Respect or Green - doesn't matter who you vote for Nick Clegg always gets in